global status & trends of the hydrogen economy · fuel cell cost (

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE1

Global Status & Trends of

The Hydrogen Economy

Dr. Robert K. DixonHead, Energy Technology Policy Division

International Energy Agency

Paris, France

© OECD/IEA 2006


World 2004Total Primary Energy Supply

Source: IEA-ESD Energy Balances

Hydro

Renewables

Other

12%Nuclear

6%

Natural Gas

21%

Oil

35%

Coal

25%


Imbalance Between Oil Demand & Reserves

Oil Demand

FranceS. KoreaBrazilCanadaIndiaRussiaGermanyChina

U.S.Japan

Mexico

Oil Reserves

U.S.NigeriaLibyaRussiaVenezuelaU.A.E.KuwaitIraqIranCanadaSaudi Arabia

2%2%

3%5%

6%8%8%

9%10%

14%21%

3%3%3%3%3%3%3%

7%

25%7%

3%

Updated July 2005. Source: International Energy Annual 2003 (EIA). Canada’s reserves include tar sands.


Global CO2 Emissions Increasing

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mill

ion tones o

f C

O2

OECD Transition economies Developing countries

OECD

Developing

countries

Transitioneconomies

Source: IEA WEO


Environmental Impacts of Fossil Energy Use

0

20

40

60

80

100

CO NOx VOC SO2 PM10 PM2.5 CO2

Transport Industry Buildings ElectricitySource: US EPA; U.S. 2001 Energy-Linked Emissions as Percentage of Total Emissions


World Leaders Launch Hydrogen Fuel Initiatives

National Initiatives:

• US ~ $ 1 700 mill. over 5 years

• Japan ~ $ 300 mill. a year

• EC (EU) ~ € 200-300 mill. a year in the 6th FP

• plus: Brazil, Canada, China, India and many others


Energy Security

Produced from a variety of domestic sources

Environmental

Criteria pollutants from mobile sources eliminated

Emissions from stationary H2

production sites easier to control

Greenhouse gas emissions significantly reduced

Economic Competitiveness

Abundant, reliable, and affordable energy is an essential component in a healthy, global economy

Hydrogen is a Possible Key toa Secure and Clean Energy Future

HIGH EFFICIENCY & RELIABILITY

ZERO/NEAR ZERO

EMISSIONS

Transportation

Wit

h C

arb

on

S

eq

uestr

ati

on

Coal

Natural Gas

Oil

NuclearDistributedGeneration

Biomass

HydroWindSolar

Geothermal


Transitional Phases

I. Technology Development Phase

II. Initial Market Penetration Phase

III. Infrastructure Investment Phase

IV. Fully Developed Market and Infrastructure Phase

Strong Government

R&D Role

Strong Industry

Commercialization Role

2000

20

20

2010

20

30

2040

PhaseI

PhaseII

PhaseIII

PhaseIV

RD&D I

Transition to the Marketplace

Commercialization Decision

II

Expansion of Markets and Infrastructure III

Realization of the Hydrogen Economy IV

Timeline for the Hydrogen Economy


Barriers to a Hydrogen Economy

� Hydrogen Storage (>300 mile range)

� Hydrogen Production cost ($1.50 -2.00 per gge)

� Fuel Cell cost(<$50 per kW)

� Safety, Codes and Standards (Safety and global competitiveness)

� Hydrogen Delivery (Investment for new distribution infrastructure)

� Education

Critical Path Technology Barriers:

Economic/Institutional Barriers:

Storage Volume for >300 Mile Range

Fuel Cell Cost


20152005 2010

$/k

Wh

16

14

12

10

8

4New technologies for advanced

materials/systemsHigh volume fabrication of

compressed and cryogenic tanks

6

2

Chemical Hydride Storage Systems

Compressed Gas (5000 psi) Systems

Liquid Hydrogen Storage Systems

Complex Hydride Systems

Compressed Gas (10,000 psi) Systems

Hydrogen Storage

2.1

1.9

2.0

1.6

2.0

3.0

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.5

2.7

0.80.6

0 1 2 3 4

5000 psi gas

10000 psi

gas

Liq. H2

Complex

hydride

Chemical

hydride

2010 target

2015 target

kWh/l

kWh/kg

Volumetric & Gravimetric Energy Density

2.1

1.9

2.0

1.6

2.0

3.0

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.5

2.7

0.80.6

0 1 2 3 4

5000 psi gas

10000 psi

gas

Liq. H2

Complex

hydride

Chemical

hydride

2010 target

2015 target

kWh/l

kWh/kg


2.1

1.9

2.0

1.6

2.0

3.0

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.5

2.7

0.80.6

0 1 2 3 4

5000 psi gas

10000 psi

gas

Liq. H2

Complex

hydride

Chemical

hydride

2010 target

2015 target

kWh/l

kWh/kg2.1

1.9

2.0

1.6

2.0

3.0

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.5

2.7

0.80.6

0 1 2 3 4

5000 psi gas

10000 psi

gas

Liq. H2

Complex

hydride

Chemical

hydride

2010 target

2015 target

kWh/l

kWh/kg


2.1

1.9

2.0

1.6

2.0

3.0

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.5

2.7

0.80.6

0 1 2 3 4

5000 psi gas

10000 psi

gas

Liq. H2

Complex

hydride

Chemical

hydride

2010 target

2015 target

kWh/l

kWh/kg2.1

1.9

2.0

1.6

2.0

3.0

0.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.5

2.7

0.80.6

0 1 2 3 4

5000 psi gas

10000 psi

gas

Liq. H2

Complex

hydride

Chemical

hydride

2010 target

2015 target

kWh/l

kWh/kg


3-8x gap between today’s storage system cost and target


H2 Production Strategies

Distributed natural gas & electrolysis economics are important for the “transition”

Energy resource diversificationis important for the long-term


20152005 2010

$/k

g (

$/g

ge)

Cost goal of $1.50-2.00 approximates the projected cost of

conventional fuels (gasoline, untaxed)

6

5

4

3

2

1

Heat IntegrationImproved Catalyst Performance

Component Scalablility

ManufacturabilityOperational flexibility

Remote operation

Hydrogen Production

3-4x gap between today’s high volume cost and target


High volume production defined as 500,000 units per year. Cost estimated by TIAX with enhanced hydrogen storage.

20151990 2000 20051995 2010

30

200

3000

Cost

in $

/kW

50kW

sys

tem

Through 1990, PEM cost was dominated by platinum loading

(~20g/kW)

Today’s high volume estimate is $225/kW and is attributed to platinum

and membrane cost

Reduced catalyst loadingAdvanced membrane material

Standardized modular design Improved membrane fabrication

Cost goal of $30/kW approximates the cost of conventional engine

technology

PEM Fuel Cells

7x gap between today’s high volume cost and target


� Can meet the demand for combined heat & power in commercial and residential buildings

� Robust technology option, not sensitive to energy policies and competing technologies

� Up to 200-300 GW by 2050, equal to 2-3% of global power capacity in 2050

� Mostly fuelled by natural gas (not only H2)

Stationary Fuel Cells


FutureGen

Produces electricity and H2 with near zero emissions (including CO2)

Output of 275 MWe, 1 million metric tonnes of CO2/year

Cost: $950 million [private sector $250 M and government $700 M]

To begin operating in 2012

Alliance officially formed and recognized

8 charter members

Open membership policy with an active recruiting effort

Alliance has initial capital

FutureGen Industrial Alliance signed agreement to build FutureGen in 2005


Review of National Programs

2004 summary

of public R&D

and

policy efforts

in the IEA countries


Prospects for H2 and Fuel Cells

2005 analysis

of H2/FC potential

using the IEA ETP

model

(scenarios to 2050)


H2 Production Cost

● Decentralised gas reforming & electrolysis: < $15-20/GJ *

● Later, centralised H2 from gas & coal with CCS < $10-12/GJ

● Higher cost, longer term for nuclear, biomass and solar H2

● GJ-basis comparison is deceptive: FCV efficiency = 2.5xICE

● Fuel cost/km (ex tax) same as current ICE vehicles * * Today: H2 > $35-50/GJ; Oil ($40/bbl) $7/GJ; Gasoline ($2/g) $16/GJ

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

Decentral.Nat. gasNo CCS

Decentral.Electrolysis

Central.Nat gasNo CCS

Central.Nat gas

CCS

Central.CoalCCS

Central.Nuc

SI Cycle

Central.Solar

SI Cycle

Central.Biom

Gasific

(CCS cost: $ 1-3/GJ H2)

Projections 2020-2030 (US $/GJ H2)


Transport Sector Fuel Demand

0

50

100

150

200

2002 WEO RS

2030

BASE

2030

WBCSD

2050

BAS

2050

MAP

2050

Electricity

Hydrogen

CNG

FT fuels coal

FT fuels natural gas

Biofuels

Refinery products

Hydrogen is favored by CO2 policies($ 50/t CO2 abatement incentive)

(EJ/y)


When will Hydrogen Powered Autos Reach

the Market?

A - Weak CO2 policy and tech. development

B - Strong CO2 policy in Kyoto countries and tech. development

C - Strong CO2 policy in Kyoto countries and tech. lag

D - Strong CO2 policy world wide and tech. development

GLOBAL H2 USE

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(EJ/y)

H2 FC VEHICLES SHARE

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(%) D

C

B

A

D

C

B

A

Up to 30% H2 fuel cell vehicles by 2050


Regional MarketsH2 Use - Scenario D

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(EJ/y)

Others

China

OECD Pacific

North America

Europe

Per capita H2 use in 2050 - (GJ H2/pc)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

NorthAmerica

Europe OECDPacific

China Others

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D

Scenario A

Best scenario: 60% FC vehicles in China by 2050, 42% India and US, 36-48% Europe, 35% Canada, 22% Japan, 10% Australia

Differences across regions due to discount rate, fuel taxes, infrastructure, consumers’ attitude for capital-intensive investment, mobility needs, car-mileage.


Energy Technology PerspectivesScenarios & Strategies to 2050


World Liquid Fuel Supply by Scenario 2003-2050

Primary oil demand is below 2030 baseline level

and is returned to about today’s level in TECH Plus.

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

2003 Baseline

2030 (WEO

2005)

Baseline

2050

ACT Map

2050

ACT Low

Efficiency

2050

TECH Plus

2050

Mto

e

Hydrogen

Biofuels

Synfuels

Oil


Transport CO2 Emissions by Scenario

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

2003 Baseline 2030

(WEO 2005)

Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 TECH Plus

2050

Mt

CO

2

Hydrogen(including fuelcell efficiency)

Biofuels

Fuel efficiency

CO2emissions

2050 Baseline Emission Level

Sa

vin

gs

Sa

vin

gs

Map Scenario: Two-thirds of CO2 emissions reduction is from improved fuel efficiency and one-third from biofuels.


Map: OECD Emissions 32% below 2003 level, while emissions

in Developing Countries are 65% higher.

CO2 EmissionsBaseline and Map Scenarios

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2003 Baseline

2050

ACT Map

2050

2003 Baseline

2050

ACT Map

2050

Mt

CO

2

OECD Developing Countr ies

-32%

+65%

+70%

+250%

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2003 Baseline

2050

ACT Map

2050

2003 Baseline

2050

ACT Map

2050

Mt

CO

2

OECD Developing Countr ies

-32%

+65%

+70%

+250%


Hybrids are a Bridge

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Pe

tro

leu

m U

se

(M

MB

PD

)

DOE Base Case (Gasoline ICE)

NRC HEV Case

DOE FCV Case

NRC HEV+FCV Case

• Near-term focus on hybrids• Transition Phase to Hydrogen - decentralized H2 production from distributed

natural gas• Long-term hydrogen fuel production from diverse domestic carbon-free

sources such as renewables, nuclear, and coal with sequestration

Potential scenarios – not predictions

Hybrid vehicles are a bridge technology that can reduce pollution and our dependence on oil until long-term technologies like hydrogen fuel cells are market-ready.

Hybrid/Hydrogen FCV Strategy


Unprecedented International Cooperation

California Fuel Cell Partnership

… a collaboration of auto companies, fuel providers, fuel cell technology companies, and government agencies that is placing fuel cell electric vehicles on the road.


Hydrogen Demonstration Project Atlas� name of project, partners, project dates, type of fuel, …

� submission form for additional projects

� http://www.iphe.net/


Review national R&D programmes in IEA countries.

“Hydrogen & Fuel Cells – Review of National R&D Programs”

Report by IEA, published December 2004

Review IEA R&D activities and collaborations.

“Hydrogen Production & Storage - R&D Priorities and Gaps”

Paper by the Hydrogen IA, published January 2006

Policy Analysis to Help Guide the IEA Work

“Prospects for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells”

Report by IEA published December 2005

IEA & Hydrogen Co-ordination GroupCurrent Work

global status & trends of the hydrogen economy · fuel cell cost (

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