global passenger car powertrain and electric vehicle market: 2015

Global Passenger Car Powertrain and

Electric Vehicle Market: 2015 Outlook

Pietro Boggia, Principal Consultant

16th June 2015

2

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3

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Personal and Freight Mobility

3

Mega Trends

Impacting Mobility

Mobility Integration

New Mobility

business models

like car sharing

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products and

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Chassis

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Distribution

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off-road vehicles

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(Light Rail, Metro,

MainLine, High

Speed Rail)

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(signaling, track,

station)

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solutions

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technologies

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Models

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Logistics

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and Parcel

3PL & 4PL

Connected

Logistics

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Transport System

(V2X, traffic mgt,

congestion

charging, tolling,

parking, etc.)

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Infrastructure

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Mobility Automotive Rail & Public

Transport

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Supply Chain Infrastructure

4

Presentation Agenda F

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Global Passenger Car Powertrain Outlook

1. Global Powertrain Fuel Mix

2. Analysis: Diesel vs Gasoline Focus on India, Europe

3. Impact of Air Quality Concerns on Powertrain

4. Powertrain Report China, India and Brazil

Selected Powertrain Technology Market Estimations- Snapshot

1. Gasoline Diesel Injection (GDI) Roadmap and Market Analysis

2. Gasoline Particulate Filter (GPF) Roadmap and Market Analysis

3. Global Diesel After-treatment System Adoption Hot Spots

4. Market for High Speed Transmissions

Global Passenger Car Electric Vehicle Outlook

1. Roadmap of Powertrain Electrification

2. Review of 2014 Global Sales of Electric Vehicles and Highlights

3. Fuel Cell Vehicles Overview

4. EV Infrastructure EU status update and issues

5

73.0–76.0%

16.0–18.0%

4.5-5.5%

Powertrain Market: Expected Light Vehicle* Unit Shipment by Region and Powertrain Mix, Global, 2015

~72.1 Million

2015

Key: Light vehicles include personal vehicles (PVs) and light commercial vehicles (LCVs). The powertrain mix in China and Japan consider only PVs. The mild

and full hybrids in Japan are shown under the “full hybrid” legend. Mild and full hybrids are shown as a part of gasoline and diesel in China, India, South

America, and Korea. Total for 2015 represents the sum of regions shown. *Others in 2015 goalpost include mild hybrids, full hybrids and EVs.

Others*

3.0–4.0%

97.8- 98.2%

69.5– 71.5% 45-46%

44–46%

91.5–93%

33.5–34.5% 73.0–76.0%

1.2–2.0%

0.7–1.1% 50-51%

50.5– 52.5%

3.0-4%

9.5–10.5%

18.0–21.0%

3.5-4.5%

2.0–2.5%

0.2–0.5%

56.5–58.5%

4.0–6.0%

0.5–0.9%

0.9–1.4%

26.5-28.%

1.0–1.5%

2.5–3.5%

0.2–0.4%

1.0–1.5%

0.2–0.3%

0.5–0.7%

0.5–1%

~0.03%

0.1–0.2%

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

China Japan India Europe NorthAmerica

SouthAmerica

South Korea

Gasoline Diesel Alt. Fuels Mild Hybrids Full Hybrids EVs

Un

its

(M

illio

n)

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2014. Source: LMC Automotive; Frost & Sullivan

Global Powertrain Mix—Unit Shipment by Region Snapshot European powertrains will be seen receding from diesels, while developing markets like India will continue to

witness increasing diesel engine uptake to meet higher fuel economy requirements.

6

European Powertrain Market—Unit Shipment, Diesel vs. Gasoline Trend Higher degree penalization for diesel cars and LEZ strategies by major markets led to a marginal decline of

diesel share in 2014; this trend is expected to continue through 2015.

(0.4%) 1.7% (3.0%) 0.5% 1.1% 2.3% (0.5)% (2.2%) (0.5%)

33.8 34.6

61.2 59.5

29.7 33.0 51.0 51.3

30.8 28.9

63.5 64.2

31.1 31.6 33.2 35.2 48.8 49.3

64.8 64.0

37.3 39.0

67.0 64.0 47.4 47.9

53.9 55.0

24.8 27.1

67.1 66.5 61.5 59.3 49.8 49.2

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014 2013 2014

Gasoline Diesel

YoY

Diesel %

Change

(‘13–14)

Gaso

lin

e a

nd

Die

sel S

hare

(%

)

Powertrain Market: Passenger Vehicle Sales by Country–Gasoline vs. Diesel Share, Europe, 2013–2014

Belgium* Finland France Germany Italy NL Spain* Sweden UK

Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Respective national automotive agencies; Frost & Sullivan *Frost Estimate based on latest data available

37.4

37.6

37.7

52.1

51.7

51.3

2013

2014

2015

Gasoline

Diesel

0.4%

2013

2014

2015

5.7M diesel cars sold

5.5M diesel cars sold

`5.7M diesel cars(projected) 1.0%

0.4% 3.6%

Powertrain Market: Passenger Vehicle–Gasoline vs. Diesel Share& Diesel Sales, Europe, 2013–2015*

7

Air Quality Concerns and Risk - Europe, 2020 Outlook Higher pollution levels in UK, France and Germany and the tougher targets to be met will essentially result in

tougher targets for Automakers too; calling for increased power train optimization and alternative propulsion.

United Kingdom: Central London

to have highest NOx levels by 2020.

40% of EURO VI compliant vehicles

in central London will be targeted by

2020

France: France has to bring down its

GHG emissions by 14% till 2020(over

2005 levels). road measures.

Sweden: NOx levels to

decline at over 2.5% every

year to meet 2020 targets.

Germany: Increasing

emissions from power sector

will put additional load on

transportation . Auto makers

need to cut down emissions

by 27% by 2020.

Italy: 3% annual decrease in NOx levels is

required to meet 2020 targets.

Czech republic/

Slovakia: Road

transport contributing

close to 40% of overall

NOx emissions.

No Risk

High

Risk

Air

Quality-

Good

Air

Quality-

Moderate

Source: Government portals for Air quality, Country Pollution Fact sheets, Frost & Sullivan Analysis

Netherlands: The current

network of 13 LEZ will expand

covering larger area, as about

30% cut down in NOx levels will

be required by 2020, from current

levels.

8

Key Powertrain Highlights of 2014 - India, China & Brazil Light vehicle sales went up in China and Japan, while it declined in Turkey. India witnessed major technology

advantages like engine downsizing, GDI and twin scroll turbochargers in the C/D segments.

Sales Outlook:

Sales of passenger cars reached close to 19.7 million units in 2014 clocking 9.9% growth over 2013 levels.

Chinese car manufacturers increased their sales by 4.1% over previous years.

Technology Outlook: The share of direct injected engines was about 14-15% among gasoline vehicles.

About 16-18% of gasoline engines were boosted.

The production of 8 speed transmissions got a boost as result of increased adoption from European OEMs;

Dual clutch transmissions continued on their growth track with growth rate over 25%, from 2013 levels.

China sold close to 74,800 New Energy Vehicles(NEV); more than three fold the sales in 2013.

.

Sales Outlook: The combined sales of passenger cars, utility vehicles and

vans are expected to reach about 2.6 million as the financial year closes in

India. Gasoline will have powered about 45-46% of vehicles, while diesel,

about 52-53%.

Technology Outlook:

• Directed injected gasoline engines came fitted in the B/C segments cars

like, VW POLO TSI and VENTO TSI.

• These also feature dual scroll turbocharger for gasoline engines,

capable of giving 40% higher output than the naturally aspirated, port

injected counterparts. TAT also introduced gasoline turbocharging in it’s

‘ZEST’ , with a Revotron engine.

• Engine downsizing also gained focus , with FORD’s 1L Ecoboost, VW’s

1.5L engines and Hyundai’s 1.1L 3 cylinder CRDi engines gaining

popularity.

• Popular models like VW POLO, FORD Ecosport and Fiesta also introduced

DCT versions targeting city drivers, primarily.

China

India

Powertrain Market: Highlights from Key Regions- India, China, Japan and Turkey, 2014

Source: Respective Country/Regional Automotive Associations, Frost & Sullivan

Sales Outlook:

In the backdrop of weak economy and poor exports

vehicle sales totaled about 3.5 Million, declining by

7.1% over 2013 levels.

Technology Outlook:

40% of cars sold had displacement below 1L, over

59% were between 1 and 2L, while engines above

2.0L displacement constituted 0.7%.

Diesel and gasoline cars had 5-6% each market

share, while flex fuel cars remained the majority

with 88% penetration.

Electric Vehicle sales reached close to 900 units. In

2013, the figure was less than 500 units.

LATAM Region

-Brazil

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2014

14.8 – 15.0

million

Powertrain Market: GDI Unit Production Forecast by Region, Global, 2014 and 2015

Key: The centre graph represents data for 2015 for select OEMs. The goalpost charts represent data for the entire global market, not only for the OEMs in the centre graph.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Asia Pacific Europe North America South America

Un

its

(Mill

ion

)

BMW Daimler Fiat Chrysler Ford GM Hyundai PSA Renault Nissan VW

4.8–5.0

5.2-5.5

4.0–4.3

0.08–0.1

2015

17.8–18.0

million

1. Europe will see 10-11% increase in the number of GDI engines produced primarily to move closer to EURO VI targets, in the

context of declining diesel uptake.

2. NA & APAC: Gasoline dominated markets like NA and APAC will see significant advancement in DI technology, and hence

will be a principal element in all almost OEMs’ strategies. NA and APAC both to witness 15-17% growth in GDI engines over

2014 levels.

OEM

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2014. Source: LMC, Frost & Sullivan

GDI Unit Production Forecast by Region OEMs like VW, FORD and Renault Nissan are expected to embrace GDI technology at an accelerated rate,

in the backdrop of EURO VI implementation and tightening CAFÉ/EPA targets

11

Gasoline Direct Injection Production vs Gasoline Particulate Filter Simulated Scenario Forecast, 2014

and 2020

Trend in Gasoline Engines - Market for GDI Engines and GPF Gasoline Particulate filters will be reach penetration of around 65% in Western Europe.

Gasoline Particulate Filter: OEM Market Share Analysis,

Europe and North America, 2020

.

Note: The Market share analysis has been based on the Gasoline Particulate Filter production

volumes of each OEM. Others include Hyundai, Toyota, Honda, Geely, Fiat-Chrysler and Mazda.

Volkswagen 26%

Daimler 13%

BMW 13%

Ford 13%

GM 10%

Renault-Nissan

9%

PSA 4%

Tata Group, 3%

Others 9%

Note: The penetration percent of Gasoline Particulate Filter within the Gasoline Direct Injection portfolio is shown. All figures are rounded; the base year is 2014

Gasoline Direct Injection

Production

Gasoline Particulate Filter

Production

Western Europe North America

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2014 2020

Veh

icle

Pro

du

cti

on

(M

illio

n)

50-51

thousand

4.0-4.1

million

5.9-6.1

million

3.7-3.9

million

65%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2014 2020

4.5-4.6

million

6.8-6.9

million

0.6-0.7

million

11%

Western Europe is expected to be the

biggest market with 65% of the GDI

engines to have fitted with GPF.

VW, Daimler and BMW are leading

adopters and expected to take up 52% of

market share

12

Note: For a list of abbreviations click here.

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Global Diesel After-treatment System Adoption Hot Spots SCR technology adoption is high in North America, Europe, and China due to stringent emission norms. Japan,

South Korea, Australia, Latin America, and Russia will show progress if new emission regulations are launched.

High adoption of SCR

Use of only DOC & DPF

Minimal adoption of SCR

Use of EGR

No adoption of SCR

Use of LNT

Total SCR Market: Technology Hot Spots, Global, 2014–2021

North

America

Latin

America

Europe Russia

China

India

Japan and

South Korea

Australia

and

New Zealand

13

High-speed Transmission Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by Region and Technology, Global,

2014 and 2015

2015

~3.3-3.6

Million

22.0-23.0%

71.0-72.0%

5.0-6.0%

0.5%-0.6%

Key: Graph in centre represents data for 2015.

Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2014. Source: Frost & Sullivan

High-speed Transmissions—Unit Shipment Forecast by Region and

Technology Transmissions will continue to speed up this year, with 9-speeds increasing their penetration to about 22-23 %.

64.3%

69.0%

76.3%

58.3%

22.0%

26.5%

19.8%

41.2%

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Europe North America China Japan

Mil

lio

ns

High Speed DCT 10 speed AT 9 Speed AT 8 Speed AT

13.6%

3.1%

3.9%

0.5%

Millio

ns

1.4%

2014

~2.5–3.0

Million

16.0–

17.0%

81.0–

82.0%

3.0–4.0%

14


OEM High Speed Transmission Introduction Strategies, 2015-2016 Honda and VW are expected to increase penetration of DCT primarily in to their midsize/sports segments,

while 9/10 speed ATs will penetrate more in to larger segments of Chrysler, FORD and Hyundai.

MP

V/

Pic

k

UP

/Va

n

SU

V

Ex

ec

-

Lu

xu

ry

Me

diu

m

Ba

sic

Sm

all

Sp

ort

s

BMW Daimler Fiat

Chrysler FORD GM Honda Hyundai TATA Toyota VW

Mini

Marquee

, Sub 1-

Series

X1, X2

8 – Speed AT

Coupe

Models,

CLA

class

M-Class,

GLK, GL

Class

Compact

CUV, 100,

Dart,

Compass

Durango

Cherokee,

Journey

MKS,

Taurus

RWD

Sedan

Mustang

MKC,

Focus,

C-Max,

Fusion,

Mondeo

Expedition

Navigator

Sierra,

Silverado

Compact

CUV,

Encore,

Cruze,

Malibu

Impala,

LaCrosse

LTS

Accord,

TLX

Acura

Premium

Coupe

Pilot

i40, iX35,

C’eed

Equus,

Genesis,

K9

Mohave,

Kia SUV

Sub XF

Freelander

/ Evoque

Camry,

GS Series

Land-

cruiser,

Highlande

r

A6, A8

A4

Q5, Q7

9 – Speed AT 10 – Speed AT DCT

Powertrain Market: Expected Transmission Type Introductions in Key Segments, 2015 & 2016

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Total EVs are likely to reach 10 million units by 2020. Fuel cell vehicle

success depends on Toyota, Hyundai and Honda

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000

90,000

95,000

100,000

105,000

110,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Tho

usa

nd

s

ICE HEV PHEV BEV FCEV

FCEV (0.1%)

HEV (5.6%)

ICE (91.4%)

PHEV (1.6%)

BEV (1.3%) New Energy

Vehicle policy

showing results

Shift from full

hybrids to

PHEVs in the

West

Beginning of

48V HEVs?

Witness EVs growth

increase and HEV

growth shrink

Total EV Market: Sales Forecasts for ICE, HEV, PHEV, BEV, and FCEV, Global, 2013–2020

Uptake of hybrid

electric vehicles

globally

17

Global Power train Split by Propulsion Type- Unit Shipments 2013-2015 The need for increased fuel economy and the emergence of clean diesel technologies are propelling the

growth of diesels in North America and India, at small rates. Hybrids continue to grow globally.

88.5 88.2 87.5-88.5

6.2 6.2 6.3-6.6

5.3 5.5 5.4-5.8

0.01 0.03 0.04

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

2013 2014 2015

Gasoline Diesel Flex Fuel EV

Powertrain Market: Unit Shipments Split by Propulsion Type, Regional, 2013–2015

Brazil China

99.6 99.4

98.9-99.3

0.3

0.3

0.3-0.5

0.1 0.3

0.6-0.8

98.0

98.2

98.4

98.6

98.8

99.0

99.2

99.4

99.6

99.8

100.0

2013 2014 2015

Gasoline Diesel EV/HEV

93.5% 92.5-93.5 91.6

2..5%

2.6-3.5 3..5-3.8

3.6% 3.8-4.2 3.8-4.2

0.4% 0.5-0.6 0.7-0.9

86.0

88.0

90.0

92.0

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

2013 2014 2015

Gasoline Diesel CNG/LPGHybrid EV

71.3% 69-69.5% 69-69.5%

27.0% 28-28.5% 28-28.5%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2013 2014 2015

Gasoline Diesel Hybrids EVs

0.7% 1.2-1.4% 1.2-1.4%

46.4% 45-46% 45.6%

2% ~2% 3-4%

51.7% 52-53% 51.5-52.5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015

Gasoline Diesel Alternative Propulsion

North America

Japan India

Vehicle type with maximum growth in 2014 Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2014.. Data are based on Frost and Sullivan estimates where

unavailable. Source: Respective national automotive agencies; Frost & Sullivan

18

Nissan Leaf

BMW i3

Renault

Zoe Nissan Leaf Tesla

Model S

Mitsubishi

Outlander

BMW i3

Mitsubishi

Outlander Nissan

Leaf

Nissan

Leaf

Kandi EV

Nissan

Leaf

Kia Ray

Total EV Market: Percent Sales Breakdown by Region,

Global, 2014

Total EV Market: Percent Sales Breakdown by EV Type,

Global, 2014

Total EV Market - Sales by Country, Global, 2014

Over 480,000 electric vehicles to be sold globally in 2015 with North

America accounting for 36% of the market

Note : Numbers have been extrapolated for November and December; Source: Frost & Sullivan

19

Country AC DC Key Operators

Austria 1,500 18

Austrian Mobile Power,

Spar

Belgium 1,530 20

Siemens, Park & Charge,

Rittal

Denmark 1,190 56 EON, Clever

France 6,050 110

EDF, Park & Charge, Vinci

Autoroutes

Germany 4,340 53 RWE, Bosch

Netherlands 8,580 80 Epyon, Alfen, ABB

Norway 5,720 96 Transnova, City of Oslo

Switzerland 1,020 30 Park & Charge, Alpiq

United

Kingdom 3,780 110 Podpoint, Elektromotive,

Chargemaster

3,780

5,720

6.050

8,580

1.020

4.340

1,190

Total EV Market: Charging Station Installation Base, Europe, 2014

EV Charging Infrastructure in Europe France and the Netherlands lead the way in establishing EV charging infrastructure; however, the United

Kingdom has the maximum DC charging stations at 110 stations.


20

For Additional Information

Pietro Boggia

Principal Consultant

Automotive and Transportation

+44 20 7915 7890

[email protected]

global passenger car powertrain and electric vehicle market: 2015

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