global offshore summit taiwan...rue d’arlon80 1040 brussels,belgium t. +32 2 213 18 97...
TRANSCRIPT
Rue d’Arlon 80
1040 Brussels,Belgium
T. +32 2 213 18 97
www.gwec.net
Global offshore summit
Taiwan
Ben Backwell, CEO, GWEC
25 April 2019
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Heading in this
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Share of onshore and offshore based on
new installations, per cent and GW
* Compound Annual Growth Rate - CAGR
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence
Global offshore wind to drive wind market growth
99% 95% 91%83%
9%17%
2015
1%
2010
64GW
5%
2023e2018
39GW 51GW 59GW
Offshore Onshore
Average annual growth rate onshore vs
offshore 2018 to 2023*, per cent
Offshore
Onshore
18 per cent
3 per cent
GWEC Offshore Market Outlook to 2030 – Over 200GW total capacity
23
30
35
50
10
Total installations 2018
60
2
Business-as-usualNew installations
2019-30
Upside scenario -Additional potential
Total capacity by 2030
156
~210
Europe
USA
Asia ex China
China
Other
Total installationsGW, offshore
* CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence
New markets, floating
technology, additional
capacity in existing
markets
2029e
4,51,6*
2018 2028e2025e
1,82,7
0,8
20,8
2,3
2019e
4,3 5,23,1
4,0
0,0
2020e
5,3
2027e
3,0
10,1
2,0
4,3
11,2
0,50,8
5,65,6
16,2
2022e
1,0
4,84,9
2023e
14,0
5,3
7,6
6,4
2,0
1,0
9,2
6,0
2026e
1,0
9,4
2,0
2,0
1,0
11,2
7,1
2030e
10,4
2024e
4,3
6,0
8,3
9,9 9,8
16,6
20,2 20,3
2021e
6,6
CAGR**+11,3%
CAGR**+12,9%
Other
EuropeNorth America
Asia
New installationsGW, offshore
GWEC Offshore Market Outlook to 2030
* Chinese installation adjusted to 1.6 GW new installations for 2018, Source: CWEA
** CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence
Main drivers of growth – Bids and LCOE continue to decrease
* H2 2018
Source: GWEC, BNEF H2 2018 Offshore Market Outlook, BloombergNEF LCOE Database April 2019
Levelized offshore wind bids,USD/MWh by year of commissioning
Forecasted Levelized cost of electricity offshore windUSD/MWh
0
80
100
70
90
60
50
110
120
20262018* 2020 2022 2024 2028 2030
Offshore wind LCOE to drop by 56 per cent until 2030
Offshore wind is one of the most dynamic new industries in the world…
1991, Vindby the worlds first
commercial wind farm is
installed in Denmark with 11
450kw turbines
Offshore wind is one of the most dynamic new industries in the world…
2019 – First power from
1.2GW Hornsea Wind Farm –
the world’s largest project
which can supply 1 million
people with power
2019 – Projects begin
construction with 9.5MW
turbines
2019 – UK commits to 30pc of
power from offshore wind by
2030
* Average turbine size
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, WindEurope, Press
Innovation and efficiency are key growth drivers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
20101995 20052000 2015 2020 2025Year
Average units per project
0.75-1MW
2.5MW
3.8MW2.7MW
6.8MW
Average Power Rating (MW)
Total capacity and power rating to increaseOffshore wind turbine size development*
Selected future offshore turbine models
• GE Haliade 12MW - X
• MHI Vestas V164-10MW
• SiemensGamesa 193-10MW
• Goldwind 184-8MW
10-12MW
Resulting in a new generation of mega turbines…..
From new to experienced markets
Source: Bloomberg NEF
• Early projects demonstrate
the technical, regulatory,
legal and financial
practicalities and start to
build the supply chain
• As the market develops
costs fall, experience is
gained and supply chain
gets established
• Then a phase change
happens as market
confidence builds, full
competition occurs and low
cost finance enters
Main drivers of growth – Supply chain growth
* LCOE refers to projects signed during the given year, but not the LCOE of the installed volume: time lag between project signature and
installation is 4-5 years
Source: GWEC, BloombergNEF H2 2018 Wind LCOE Update, Renewable UK
143 140
132 125111
8778 72 66
0
50
100
150 145
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
12
4
0
8
2,92,1
6,9
4,5
1,3
3,75,1 5,2
8,2
0,9
48%43%36%20%
LCOE UK Offshore WindUSD/MWh
Total offshore installations in UKGW
Share of gross value addPer cent
Average LCOE reduction per
year: - 8%
Average growth of total installations per
year: +23%
Increase of gross value add: +28%
Germany – Steady support drives growth of local work force
* Defined as “gross employment” covering all employment areas within the industry (manufacturing, marketing, administration etc.) divided into either maintenance or new-build manufacturing** EEG – “Erneuerbare Energie Gesetz” – German laws regulating the support for renewables including offshore windSource: BMWI/ AGEE (2016 – latest available data), Deutsche Bank Analysis
Employment in the German offshore industry* and added offshore capacity
2.0 3.05.0
17.0 17.514.4
19.6
3.3
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2011
17.7
20142009 20122010
15.4
2013
0.7 1.3
2015 2016
18.8 18.720.2
27.2
5.8
7.6Manufacturing
Maintance
‘000 employees
EEG** 2000Focus to scale-
up generation
EEG** 2009Focus on LCOE
reductions
EEG** 2012Focus on introducing market-based options (e. g.,
option to chose market premium, ladder tariff, introduction of offshore auctions)
Impact of continued and transparent support
• Capacity growth and investments
• Build-up of skilled and trained local workforce
• Steady increase of jobs beyond manufacturing –O&M jobs last for minimum of 25 years
MW
Benefits from offshore wind
Expected benefits to Taiwan
over next five years
- 20 per cent electricity from
renewables by 2025 (target)
- Reduce carbon emissions by
10.5 bn metric tons
- Spur investments of 963 bn
NTD
- Create 20,000 job
opportunities
- Offshore wind to offset slow
down of economic activities
related to certain economic
challenges
Electricity
generation mix
• Through large-scale capacity additions, the
share of renewables/ offshore wind of the
total electricity mix will increase
Carbon
emissions
• Also, large-scale additions to improve
carbon footprint and to lower emissions
Spurring
investments
• Sustainable investment in supply chain, work
force, local project development/ EPC
Job creation
• Trained and qualified work force
development – creation of sustainable job
opportunities
Economic
development
• Development of local industry to provide
alternative or additional growth to market’s
overall economy
Governments to spur offshore growth
Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, CarbonTrust, Linklater
Robust permitting
➢ Transparent and reliable permitting process
➢ Alignment of federal, regional and municipal authorities
on responsibilities and processes
➢ Permitting suited for project life time of 25 to 30 years
Legal challenges
➢ Certainty of legal processes and decisions, e. g., use of
technology, safety rules
➢ Reliable processes for Environmental Impact Assessments
Grid availability
➢ Long-term grid planning to guide installation planning
and timelines
➢ Sufficient grid access and grid lines to evacuate offshore
wind energy
Rue d’Arlon 80
1040 Brussels,Belgium
T. +32 2 213 18 97
www.gwec.net
Thank you!For more information please contact:
Ben Backwell I [email protected]