global market for emission control catalysts
TRANSCRIPT
Global Market for Emission Control Catalysts National and Regional Regulations Drive the Global Markets
NBBC-39
February 2013
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Research Team
Deepak Karthikeyan Senior Research Analyst
Chemicals, Materials & Foods
+91-44-66814209
Soundarya G Research Analyst
Chemicals & Materials
+91-44-6160 4213
Lead Analyst Contributing Analyst
Research Director
Dr. Leonidas Dokos Research Director
Chemicals, Materials & Foods
+44 (0)1865 398 685
For more information:
Jeannette Garcia Corporate Communications Associate
Chemicals & Materials
+1.210.477.8427
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Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 4
Market Overview 11
Total Emission Control Catalysts Market
• Industry Challenges 21
• External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints 26
• Forecasts and Trends 35
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis 41
CEO’s 360 Degree Perspective 49
Regional Analysis 51
Mobile Emission Control Catalysts Market 77
Stationary Emission Control Catalysts Market 126
The Last Word (Conclusions and Implications) 147
Appendix 150
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Executive Summary
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Executive Summary
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
• The global emission control catalysts market is expected to reach $6,705.2 million by
2019 growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.3 per cent from 2012 to
2019.
• The market is driven primarily by growth in automotive vehicle sales and tightening
regulatory trends.
• It is set to witness advancements in technology with companies striving to deliver
efficient solutions and remaining cost-competitive at the same time.
• Demand for emission control catalysts is shifting from developed to emerging
economies such as India and China, where the automotive industry is expected to
flourish.
• Johnson Matthey Plc, BASF, and Umicore group are the major participants in the
mobile segment, and Cormetech Inc. leads the stationary segment of the market.
• Companies are focusing on expansion strategies, research and development (R&D)
activities, and product customization to retain and increase market share.
• The mobile emission control catalysts segment is the largest and accounts for 82.0 per
cent of the total market revenue.
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Executive Summary (continued)
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
• The mobile emission control catalysts segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.0
per cent through 2019.
• The emission control catalysts market for diesel engines is gaining momentum with the
emergence of heavy-duty diesel vehicle regulations. Hence, companies are beginning to
focus on diesel engines to gain a competitive position in the market.
• The stationary emission control catalysts segment constitutes 18.0 per cent of the total
emission control catalysts market. Power plants, gas turbines, and industrial processing
units are the major end users.
• This segment is expected to witness faster growth with a CAGR of 12.7 per cent through
2019. The stationary emission control catalysts segment was worth $1,206.3 million in
2012 and is expected to grow to $2,788.5 million by 2019.
• Both mobile and stationary emission control catalysts are highly consolidated, with the
top three participants accounting for 79.8 per cent and 73.5 per cent of the market,
respectively.
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Compound
Annual Growth
Rate
11.3%
(CAGR, 2012–2019)
Market
Concentration
69.5%
(% of market share held by top
3 companies)
Executive Summary—Market Engineering Measurements
Market Stage
Growth
Market Revenue
$6,705.2M
(2012)
Market Size for
Last Year of Study
Period
$14,229.0M
(2019)
Base Year Market
Growth Rate
0.6%
Customer Price
Sensitivity
6
(scale: 1 [low] to 10 [high])
Degree of
Technical Change
8
(scale: 1 [low] to 10 [high])
Total Emission Control Catalysts Market: Global, 2012
Market Overview
For a tabular version, click here. Stable Increasing Decreasing
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Replacement
Rate
3-5 years (average period of
replacement of catalysts
formulation)
Number of
Competitors
20-25
(active market competitors in
base year)
Executive Summary—Market Engineering Measurements
(continued)
Competitor Overview
Stable Increasing Decreasing Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Total Addressable Market
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Executive Summary—CEO’s Perspective
2 Companies are expanding globally to
efficiently tap growth markets in
developing countries.
3
Catalysts manufacturers should work
closely with original equipment
manufacturers (OEMs) to achieve cost
minimization and improve system
performance.
1
Technology innovation at the substrate,
wash-coat, and product level is critical
to reduce platinum group metal (PGM)
consumption without compromising on
efficiency.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Executive Summary—CEO’s Perspective (continued)
4
Global companies will partner with
small and niche participants to expand
their product portfolio and increase
their presence in developing markets.
5
Vertical market integration and the
outsourcing of production activities to
low-cost regions will enable companies
to be cost-competitive.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Market Overview
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Market Overview—Introduction
• Emission reduction from automotive and stationary engines has been one of the top priorities for
countries around the world.
• Apart from carbon dioxide (CO2) and water, which are by-products of fuel combustion in
automotive and stationary engines, carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), oxides of nitrogen
(NOx), and other particulate matter are produced due to incomplete combustion of fuel.
• The concentration and quantities of pollutants vary with the type of engine, fuel, and operating
conditions.
• The market for emission control catalysts has evolved since the 1970s, when the Clear Air Act was
introduced in the US to control emissions form automotive sources.
• The market has been continuously growing with the on-going regulatory trends.
• The growth of the market is further driven by the corresponding growth in the automotive and
power plant segments.
Market Segments CAGR (%)
Mobile Emission Control Catalysts Segment 11.0
Stationary Emission Control Catalysts Segment 12.7
Total Emission Control Catalysts Market: CAGR for Mobile and Stationary Segments, Global, 2012
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Market Overview—Introduction (continued)
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Mobile Emission Control Technologies Stationary Emission Control Technologies
Operate at high temperature ranges
Operate at comparatively lower temperatures
Catalytic converters have space limitations, as
they have to be installed in automobile engines
No space constraint
Technologies for diesel and gasoline engines are
standardized and require lesser modification for
specific applications
It is a project-driven business dealing with power
plants and gas turbines and requires a high level
of customization
Catalysts manufacturers work closely with OEMs
in choice of substrates, chemistries, and
technologies used in the catalytic converter
Catalysts manufacturers have more freedom in
designing and engineering processes
Short development time
Longer development time
There are significant differences in catering to the mobile and stationary segments. Some of the key areas
where the two segments contrast each other are as follows.
Total Emission Control Catalysts Market: Contrast between Mobile and Stationary Emission Control
Technologies, Global, 2012
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Market Overview—Definitions
• The study examines the market for emission control catalysts under two broad segments:
o Mobile emission control catalysts
o Stationary emission control catalysts
• The unit shipments and revenue of the catalysts formulation include only those of the
chemistries and exclude revenues from wash-coats, substrates, and other parts of the
catalytic converters.
• The catalysts formulation is either a single metal or a combination of active metals that
include platinum, palladium, rhodium, vanadium, and zeolites. Supporting and stabilizing
agents such as oxides of tungsten, titanium ,and molybdenum are excluded from the
revenue.
• Unit shipments are represented in kilograms, and the revenue is expressed in $ million.
The price of the catalysts are represented as the average price per kilogram of the
catalysts.
• The study discusses the unit shipments and revenue for the mobile application segment.
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Research Objective and Scope—Segments Covered
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Mobile
Applications
Stationary
Applications
Include on-road vehicles such as passenger cars, trucks,
and buses and exclude off-road vehicles such as
construction machinery, material handling, mining, and
marine applications
Power plants, chemical and industrial processes, gas
turbines
Gasoline
engines
Diesel
engines
Geographic Coverage North America, Europe, APAC, and Rest of the World (ROW)
Base Year 2012
Study Period 2009–2019
Note: The stationary segment discusses only revenue of the catalysts formulation.
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Market Overview—Key Questions This Study Will Answer
Is the market growing, how long will it continue to grow, and at what rate?
What are the key dynamics impacting the growth of the market?
What are the regulatory trends in the market?
What is the competitive scenario in the market? How is it expected to change in the future?
Which segments are poised to grow in the future?
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Market Overview—Segmentation
Emission Control Catalysts for Stationary Engines 18.0%
Emission Control Catalysts for
Mobile Engines 82.0%
Per Cent Sales Breakdown Total Emission Control Catalysts Market: Global, 2012
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Key Takeaway: The growth of the mobile segment is driven by automotive sales, and
that of the stationary segment is driven by the increasing demand for power.
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Total Emission Control Catalysts Market—Technology
Overview
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Two- and Three-way Catalysts
• Two-way catalysts are used to eliminate CO and HC emissions.
• Three-way catalysts are the main source for controlling emissions from gasoline engines.
• These catalysts convert CO and HC into CO2 and water NOx to nitrogen in tandem.
• Gasoline engines predominantly have oxidation taking place, as NOx
emissions are minimal.
• Three-way catalysts are the most popular emission control technologies for gasoline engines and have been widely used across all geographies.
Diesel Oxidation Catalysts (DOC)
• Diesel emissions have a higher oxygen content that makes three-way catalysts less efficient.
• Apart from CO and HC conversions into CO2 and water, diesel oxidation catalysts eliminate the diesel particulate matter by oxidizing the hydrocarbons that usually get adsorbed in the carbon particles.
• DOCs are used in conjunction with diesel particulate filters (DPF), SCR and NOx adsorbers to enhance the NOx conversion levels.
Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)
• The technology involves ammonia as a reductant to eliminate NOx in an oxidizing atmosphere and allowing the selective reduction of NOx
over the oxidation of ammonia itself.
• Originally designed for stationary applications such as power plants, marine applications, and other stationary diesel engines, the SCR technology has gained momentum and is now being deployed even in light and heavy duty diesel engines.
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Total Emission Control Catalysts Market—Technology
Overview (continued)
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Oxidation Catalysts
• These are the original auto catalysts that convert CO and HC into CO2 and water. They have lost popularity with the introduction of three-way catalysts that have the additional capability to perform reduction simultaneously. Oxidation catalysts are being used in areas with less stringent regulatory requirements.
NOx Adsorbers
• NOx adsorbers, also known as Lean NOx Traps (LNT), are used to enhance the conversion of NOx to nitrogen.
• When NO is converted into NO2 in a three-way catalyses, the NO2 is allowed to be adsorbed by a material such as alkali and alkaline earth metals that can store the NO2 by forming stable nitrates.
• The NOx is regenerated by creating a rich condition through the injection of small amounts of fuel.
• These are typically operated at high temperatures, where the use of precious metals is difficult.
Lean De NOx Catalysts
• These are also known as hydrocarbon SCR, which involve hydrocarbons to reduce NOx to nitrogen in an SCR technology.
• The hydrocarbon required is either consumed from the exhaust itself or by injecting small quantities of the fuel.
• Lean DeNOx catalysts offer the advantage of not requiring an additional reductant to be attached, while their efficiency compared to the ammonia SCR is still being questioned.
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Total Emission Control Catalysts Market—Regulatory
Overview
North America
Mobile: CARB,
Tier I-IV,
Stationary:
NSPS, NESHAP
Europe
Mobile: Euro 1 to 6
Stationary:
Gothenburg
Protocol
India
Mobile: Bharat
Stage II-IV
Stationary: US
Tier 1 and EU
stage II
China
Mobile: China III-V
Stationary: China
Tier I and II
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Brazil
Mobile: PROCONVE L4-L6
PROCONVE P5-P7
Stationary: Sao Paulo
Guidelines
Australia
Mobile: ADR79/01–ADR79/05,
ADR80/00–ADR80/03
Stationary: State-level
Regulations