Global forces shaping irregular migration flows and state responses:

An Australian case study

Governing Irregular Migration ConferenceAthens, 8–9 July 2015

Marie McAuliffe

Sir Roland Wilson PhD scholar

Australian Demographic & Social Research Institute

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Presentation outline

• Australian irregular migration context

• Analytical framework

• Operational and policy responses

• Conclusions

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Irregular Migration Research Programme

• Drivers & determinants of irregular maritime migration, especially migrant decision making

• AUD 6 mil over 3 years; 20 research projects involving 30 academic, private sector, policy think tank and NGO researchers

• International advisory groups

• Occasional paper series

• Article in Migration Policy Practice v5, n1

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Defining ‘irregular migration’

Source: Gordon et al. 2009

1Migrants who have illegally/irregularly entered the country, including by physically evading formal immigration control or presenting false papers.

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Migrants who legally entered the country for a fixed period which has expired; they did not renew their permission to stay and are therefore unlawful overstayers.

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Migrants who are lawfully entitled to reside in the country, but are in breach of some visa condition, notably by working more than their immigration status permits.

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Asylum seekers who legally entered the country to pursue a case for refugee status, but who remain despite a final decision refusing them a continuing right to remain.

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Children born in the country to such ‘irregular migrants’, who also lack a right to remain although they are not themselves migrants.

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‘Irregular migration’ in Australia

• Small ‘irregular’ or ‘unlawful’ migrant population

• Focus on external border - no restrictions on internal movement

• Air travel dominates

• Irregular maritime arrivals greater in number and proportion compared with irregular air arrivals– Differences in demographic characteristics & behaviour

• Definition limited to irregular migration flows rather than stocks

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Proportion of detected irregular arrivals by region and mode of travel (~2012)

Source: McAuliffe & Mence (2014)

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Detected irregular arrivals to Australia

Source: Derived from DIBP (2012)

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Source: UNODC

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Changing nature of irregular maritime flows to Australia

• Increase in volume

• Increase in diversity of origin

• Changes in demography – citizenship, unaccompanied minors & families

• Largely asylum seekers– Indonesian crew

– Sri Lankan surge

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Irregular maritime flows to Australia: 1976 to 20141

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1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

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Changing nature of flows

• Transit migration through Thailand, Malaysia & Indonesia

– Shift to direct movement by Sri Lankans alongside large increases in volume

• Almost all migrants are smuggled using agents, people smugglers and corrupt officials

• Smugglers need boats to be intercepted

– Extremely remote & harsh northern coastline

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State responses to irregular migration - Analytical frameworks

• Hatton’s (2011) typology of three broad policy levers: ‘border control’, ‘refugee claims processing/acceptance’ and ‘treatment of asylum seekers’.

• Hatziprokopiou &Triandafyllidou (2013) distinguish between external and internal immigration policies, as well as between ‘fencing’ or ‘gate-keeping’ irregular migration control policies.

• McAuliffe & Mence (2014) geographic/spatial lines accounting for origin, transit, physical border and destination country responses.

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State responses to irregular migration in international and transnational settings

Direct control Seek to influence Outside of control or influence

Origin factors (e.g. political/security, economic, civil society, regional stability, etc)

Destination factors (e.g. asylum policy, refugee recognition rates, political/security, economic, civil society, diaspora, etc)

Enabling factors (e.g. ease of travel/access, telecommunications, transport, smuggling, diaspora, corruption, etc)

State responses to irregular migration in international and transnational settings - Informed by empirical research into migrant decision making

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Australia’s evolving operational and policy response framework

• Increasing focus over time on ‘enabling’ factors

• Further restricting access to territory (destination & transit)

– Visa-on-arrival policy changes in Indonesia & Malaysia

– ‘Turnbacks’

– Enhanced screening and deportations

– Third country processing and resettlement

– Undermining smuggling operations (e.g. information release)

– Plus existing measures (e.g. immigration detention in Indonesia, capacity building, counter people smuggling operations, etc)

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• Continued focus on destination country factors & deterrence– Temporary protection

– Tightening review processes

– Differential treatment by arrival status (e.g. detention, RSD processes)

• Migrants continue to view Australia as a destination of choice

• Reduced emphasis on origin country factors

• Australian responses have relied on geography, bilateral relationships, understanding of smuggling operations/marketing, testing relationships & obligations.

– ‘flows within flows’

• Financial & other costs

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Conclusions

• Extraordinary responses becoming ordinary?

• Further significant efforts to restrict access to territory

• Sustainability?

– Global transformational forces

– Human displacement, relative deprivation, demographic change

– Potential migrants’ views of Australia as a destination of choice

• Replicability?

– High cost

– Reliance on geography, bilateral relationships, understanding of smuggling operations, readiness to challenge norms

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Thank you

Questions?