global financial crisis simplified
TRANSCRIPT
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GLOBAL CREDIT CRISISGLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS
Simplified By CA Avik KediaFounder, Sanchayan Society [www.SanchayanSociety.org]
Visiting Faculty, MDI Gurgaon [www.mdi.ac.in]
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What we will discuss today
Globalization Interconnected World EconomyGlobal Financial CrisisOil EconomicsDollar TradeThe Great DepressionFuture Outlook
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Some images from the crisis….
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Before we start- ‘some basics’
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$1 US = Rs.50 (approx.)
1 Billion = 100 crores
$ 1 Billion = Rs.5000 crores
1000 Billion = 1 Trillion
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India vs. China vs. United States
2008 GDP data as per IMF
India China United States
$ 1.3 $ 4.4 $ 14.2
GDP Rank 12 3 1
Figures in Trillion US Dollars
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GDP defined• In economics, GDP means Gross Domestic Product. GDP is
defined as the value of all goods and services produced within the geographic territory of an economy in a given interval, such as a year.
• GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + (exports − imports)
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Monetary Authority
India
RBI
Monitors Interest Rates & Manage Govt. Finances
United States
Federal Reserve (Fed)
Monitors Interest Rates
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Importance of Interest rates
• Interest rates determine money supply and demand,• Expansion & Investment plans are decided by interest
rates• Interest rate changes affect the flow of funds globally
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Value of a Company
Value = No. of shares x Share Price
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Global Financial Crisis
A. Causes of the Global CrisisB. Effects of the Global CrisisC. Measures/ Actions taken to combat global crisis
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A. Causes of the Global Crisis
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Origins of the crisis – Collapse of Bretton Woods Monetary system,
Gold Standard IMF and World Bank set up in 1944 Fixed exchange rates : $35 per ounce (28 gms) of gold
US eliminates the fixed gold price in 1971
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2000-2001 Dot-com Bubble
C o m p a n y
3 /10 /2 00 0 p r ic e
3 /0 5 /2 00 1 p r ic e *
% c h a n g e
Ya h o o $178.06 $22.19 -88%
G a t e w a y $62.50 $16.07 -74%C is c o S y s t e m s
$68.19 $23.08 -66%
e B a y $96.63 $38.00 -61%H e w le t t -P a c k a r d
$73.47 $30.38 -59%
O r a c le $40.81 $17.00 -58%S u n M ic r o s y s t e ms
$47.09 $20.94 -56%
D e l l $51.25 $23.44 -54%
In t e l $60.00 $30.38 -49%
M ic r o s o f t $101.00 $57.44 -43%
C o m p a q $28.44 $20.07 -29%A m e r ic a O n l in e
$58.63 $43.80 -25%* a d ju s t e d f o r s p l i t s
S o u r c e : C N E T In v e s t o r
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Alan Greenspan’s Policies
• Federal Reserve Governor from 1987 to 2006• Reduced interest rates to 1%• Cheap Money Supply• Excessive Leverage
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Housing Bubble
• House Prices increase globally due to speculation• Fannie Mae and Feddie Mac bailout• ‘House as an Investment’• “Negative Equity”
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Real home price vs. Rent
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Commodities and Oil speculation
• Crude Oil price goes to $147/barrel• Crude Oil price falls to $35/barrel• Huge demand from China & India• Boom in Copper, Iron ore, Steel prices
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Oil Price chart
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Greed of Investment Banks, Wall Street brokers, Credit Rating Agencies and Bonus Culture
• ‘Investment Banking’ becomes hottest sector
• Banks provided cheap liquidity
• Excessive risk taking• Banks indulge in
speculation• Weak regulatory
environment : creation of complex financial derivatives – CDS, CDO
• Lehman Brothers & Bear Sterns goes Bankrupt
• AIG- world’s largest insurer goes bankrupt
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China
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China’s Trade Surplus
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
US Exports to
China
13.1 16.3 19.2 22.1 28.4 34.7 41.8 55.2 65.2 71.5
US Imports from China
81.8 100 102.3 125.2 152.4 196.7 243.5 287.8 321.5 337.8
US Balance -68.7 -83.7 -83 -103.1 -124 -162 -201.6 -232.5 -256.3 -266.3
US-China Trade Statistics
Figures in US $ Billion
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Petrodollars
• Dollar is the main currency used to buy petrol• Petrodollars reinvested in US bonds leading to
cheap money supply for US banks,
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World Oil Reserves
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B. Effects of the Global Crisis
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Stock Markets Crash….
-37%
-28%-33%
-28%
-37% -39%
-68%
-44%
-58%
-50%
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
S&P 500 Mexico Brazil UK Germany France Russia Japan China India
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Collapse of Housing Bubble
• Housing Prices fall sharply,• House bought as
investments hit hardest,• Boom in construction and
heavy machinery bursts,
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Collapse of Commodities bubble and Oil speculation
• Boom in commodities and raw materials comes to an end as economies contract and companies cut back on expansion plans,
• Raw materials exporters see huge decline in exports,• Oil falls sharply from $147 to $35,
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Unemployment and Global Poverty
• Worldwide unemployment• Funding for poverty programs
reduced sharply• Sharp reduction in salary
packages
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Corporate Bankruptcy & Bailouts
• Lehman Brothers• Bear Sterns• AIG• Circuit City• Nortel• Fannie Mae• Countrywide Financial• Freddie Mac• General Motors• Chrysler
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Auto Industry – GM, Chrysler bankrupt
• Major auto companies go bankrupt worldwide,
• TATA buys JLR from Ford,• Many auto components
suppliers and auto dealerships shut down,
• Auto sector sales fall sharply,
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Impact on India – IT, Outsourcing, Gems and Jewellery, and Textiles sectors hit hardest
• India, largest exporter of gems and jewellery to United States, suffers due to recession in US,
• Millions of unorganized workers in gems and jewellery sector lost jobs,
• IT sector, dependent on the US, suffers due to cutbacks in technology spending by the US.
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Effect on Exports of Emerging Economies and Protectionism
• Export driven emerging economies like Brazil, China, India suffer due to decreased demand from US and Europe,
• Protectionism rears its ugly head, as countries strive to stimulate demand for their own products,
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C. Measures / Actions to combat Global Crisis
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International Stimulus Packages
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US TARP, Toxic Assets, Geithner Plan
• $1 Trillion Geithner Toxic Assets Plan• $ 700 billion bailout• $ 185 - AIG • $ 45 - Citibank
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US Bailout and Guarantees
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Interest Rates Cut worldwide by ECB, US FED, Australia, Japan, India
• Interest rates cut to unfreeze credit markets and stimulate borrowing & demand,
• Interest rates in US reduced to 0.25%• Home loans made cheaper in India,
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Stricter Government Regulation
• Governments worldwide call for monitoring banking system and illegal tax havens,
• United States Government regulates wall street pay and bonus,
• IMF regains authority and gets funds for lending to developing countries,
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Lehman Brothers• 4th largest US Investment Bank• Bankrupt on 15th September 2008• DEBT = $613 Billion • BOND DEBT = $ 155 Billion• EQUITY = $ 22 Billion• Assets = $639 Billion• Revenue = $59 Billion• Net Profit = $6.7 Billion• Employees = 26,200
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CONCLUSION
• Future Outlook• Worsening Macro Economy• Increasing Fiscal Deficit• Booming Stock Markets once again
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How to stay updated• Read Financial
Newspapers • Read Wikipedia,
Wikinvest, other sites regularly
• Read magazines like The Economist, BusinessWeek, Business Today
• INVEST YOUR TIME before YOUR MONEY
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Thank You