Global EV Outlook 2017Two million and counting

2017Global OutlookEV

Electric ehiclesvThe year 2016 saw the global threshold of 2 million electric cars on the road exceeded, with over 750 thousandunits sold over the year. In 2005, electric cars were still measured in hundreds. 2016 also saw more than200 million electric two wheelers on the road and 345 thousand buses, primarily in China. The rapid electricvehicle uptake is facilitated by support policies deployed by governments and cities to reap their multiplebenefits in the fields of transport decarbonisation, air pollution reduction, and energy efficiency and security.

© Global EV Outlook (GEVO 2017) OECD/IEA, 2016. 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. GEVO 2017 is subject to the IEA terms and conditions at www.iea.org/t&c/.

Geographical distribution of the 201 stock of EVSE outlets by charger type6

Key point: Electric cars still outnumber public charging stations by more than six to one, indicating that most drivers rely primarily onprivate charging stations. Publicly available EVSE shares are also not evenly distributed across markets. This is consistent withthe early stage of electric car deployment.

Private¹ Publicly available, slow Publicly available, fast

China

JapanUnited StatesUnited Kingdom

Germany

NorwayFrance

Netherlands

Canada

Outlets

Others

There are an estimated total of 2.3 million electric car charging points worldwide in 2016. The deploymentrate of publicly accessible charging infrastructure has been slightly ahead of the growth of the electric carstock in the past year.

Electric car sales, market share and BEV versus PHEV sales share in selected countries, 2010-16

Key point: The two main electric car markets are China and the United States. Six countries have reached over 1% electric car marketshare in 2016: Norway, the Netherlands, Sweden, France, the United Kingdom and China.

Evolution of the global electric car stock, 2010-16

Key point:

Others

Sweden

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Norway

Japan

United States

China

BEV

BEV + PHEV

The electric car stock has been growing fast since 2010, with a fairly consistent distribution of BEVs (60%) and PHEVs (40%)across the years. 80% of the electric cars on road worldwide are located in China, the United States, Japan, Norwayand the Netherlands.

1. car r.Private chargers are estimated assuming that each electric is coupled with a private charge

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Charging infrastructure

32%

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7%

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17%

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8%

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5%Sweden

2 millionoutlets 212 thousand

outlets7%

110 thousandoutlets

81%

3%

© Global EV Outlook (GEVO 2017) OECD/IEA, 2016. 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. GEVO 2017 is subject to the IEA terms and conditions at www.iea.org/t&c/.

Key point: Meeting 2030 decarbonisation and sustainability goals requires a major deployment of electric cars in the 2020s, assuggested by the new EVI target of the EV30@30 campaign. The level of ambition resulting from OEM announcementsshows a fairly good alignment with country targets to 2020 and seem to lie within the range corresponding to the RTSand 2DS projections from the IEA.

Deployment scenarios for the stock of electric cars to 2030

Since 200 , battery costs were cut by a factor four and battery energy density had a increase.9 sixfoldTechnological developments hold the promise to continue to deliver improvements in the forthcoming years.

Evolution of battery energy density and cost

Key point: The trends of battery energy density and cost over the past decade give encouraging signs on the possibility of meetingtargets defined by carmakers and the United States Department of Energy (US DOE) for 2020 and 2022 and of approachingthe potential lowest cost for different technologies.

Battery technology improvements

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Conventional lithium ion

US DOE battery cost (BEV)

Cost claimed by GM and Tesla (BEV)

GM battery cost target (BEV)

Tesla battery cost target (BEV)

US DOE battery cost target (PHEV)

US DOE energy density target (PHEV)

Advanced lithium ion

Beyond lithium ion

US DOE battery cost (PHEV)

US DOE energy density (BEV)

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IEA (B2DS)Beyond Two Degree Scenario

IEA (2DS)Two Degree Scenario

Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobilityand Climate Change and Call to Action

IEA (RTS)Reference Technology Scenario

Historical

Cumulative country targets (as of 2016)

Cumulative OEMs announcements (estimate)

Consistent with the ambition of the EV30@30 campaign

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ICE gasoline ybridh

ICE ieseld

PHEV - improvement2DS

PHEV - S improvementRT

BEV - improvement2DS

BEV - S improvementRT

Key point: Electric motors have a better energy efficiency than internal combustion engines (ICEs), making electric cars lessCO -intensive than ICEs with most national grids today. In order to deliver significant greenhouse gas emission reductions2

in the future, transport electrification needs to go hand-in-hand with the decarbonisation of power generation.

CO performance2Well-to-wheel CO emissions improvement between 2015 and 2030 of2 passenger

light-duty vehicle technologies by country/region, under the RTS and the 2DS

US DOE energy density (PHEV)

2030 2DS

2017Global OutlookEV

The EVI is a multigovernment policy forum established in 2009 under the Clean Energy Ministerial, dedicated

to accelerating the deployment of EVs worldwide. It brings together representatives of its member governments

and partners twice per year and acts as an effective platform for knowledge-sharing on policies and programmes

that support EV deployment. In 2017, it launched the EV30@30 campaign, redefining its ambition by setting the

collective aspirational goal for all EVI members of a 30% market share for electric vehicles in the total of all

passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, buses and trucks, by 2030.

Electric Vehicles Initiative

The EVI counts today ten member governments (Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands,

Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States), representing most of the global EV stock and

including the largest and most rapidly growing EV markets worldwide. China and the United States are

currently co-leading the EVI*, and the IEA is the co-ordinator of the initiative.

EVI countries

European Alternative Fuels Observatory ( )EAFO countries not in EVI

Other countries that contributed to the EVI data collection

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries, and to the name of any territory, city or area.

* United States' leadership under review