global electronic-materials-supply-chain

www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331

1

SEE BEYOND THE HORIZON

Changes Within the Global Electronic Materials Supply Chain and Challenges for

the Future


2


Linx Consulting

1. We create knowledge and develop unique insights at the intersection of electronic thin film processes and the chemicals industry

2. We help our clients to succeed through our:• Experience in global electronics and advanced materials and

thin film processing industries:

• Experience in the global chemicals industry• Experience at Device Producers• Experience at OEMs• Global network and capabilities• Advanced modeling capabilities

– Semi– LCD

– Packaging– PV

– Nano Technology

– Other


3


Another Below-trend Year for Global Growth

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

% C

ha

ng

e

Forecast

Long-term Trend

World Real GDP Growth

Relative to 2012: slightly weaker in US; mild recession in Eurozone continues; slightly stronger in Asia, with positive spillovers to other emerging economies


4


Q1 2013 Semiconductor Forecast

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

SEMI MSIForecast

Shaded areas indicate US recessions

Annual Percent Change2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-17.6 39.7 -3.5 -0.1 5.4 9.6 6.5


5


Changing Market Drivers

• Desktop PC market slowed and has matured• Laptop PC market growing , but at a lower rate

• Chipsets for smartphones and tablets are analogous• High growth as penetration increases

The Growth of Mobile

Source: Qualcomm, IDC


6


Segment Trends


7


The Major Challenges For ICs

3D Packaging

450mm

Gate Architecture

EUV

New Memory


8


Long Range Device Mix Forecast

Total 300 and 450mm wafers

3D P

acka

ging

?


9


Is Moore’s Law Broken?

• Current process technology diverges from the historic cost per bit curve as multipatterning and process complexity increase.

• EUV reduces this divergence by reducing litho complexity and saving some patterning cost

• Combining EUV with 450mm allows the cost per bit to stay on trend.


10


Lithography Drivers

• The introduction of Immersion 193nm scanners was the last major wavelength improvement

• Off-axis illumination, phase shift masking, assist features, etc have extended lithography capability

• Self Aligned Double Patterning, multi-layer resists, multi-patterning, and source mask optimization have extended process capability significantly

• Given current trends EUV may provide a significant capability increase after 2015

• Indications are that NXE 3300B shipments will commence in 2013 with sources enabling 70 wafers per hour at customers in mid-2014

Difficult

“Easy”


11


EUV Wafer Cost Effect

• Cost in $/cm2 for a 300mm foundry logic process in a Taiwan foundry.

• First year of implementation EUV is used for most critical layers. Beginning year 3 older EUV systems used in “mix and match” strategy totally eliminating all multi-patterning.

• In 2016 added cost of late implementation could amount $8.5Bn of 110k w/mo.

Source: Strategic Cost Model - revision 1109


12


2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

300mm Fabs Only

R&D

Other

MPU

Flash

DRAM

ASIC

R&D

Other

MPU

Flash

DRAM

ASIC

Fab Requirement

300mmR&D = 5k wpmOther = 25k wpmFlash = 100k wpmMPU = 30k wpmDRAM = 60k wpmASIC = 30k wpm

450mmR&D = 7.5k wpmOther = 37.5k wpmFlash = 150k wpmMPU = 45k wpmDRAM = 90k wpmASIC = 45k wpm

Source: 300 & 450mm Forecast Model 1201

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

300mm and 450mm

R&D

Other

MPU

Flash

DRAM

ASIC

R&D

Other

MPU

Flash

DRAM

ASIC

Series13


13


Electronic Materials, 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100%

% total electronic materials

% total category ($Bn)

Semi

Photomasks

CSP

Spec. gases

Bulk gases

Deposition

CMPPR ancillariesPhotoresist

Wafers

LCD

OtherLiquid crystals

LMF

Chemicals

MetalizationResists

Gases

Substrates

Packaging

Gases & ChemsDie attach & underfill

Encapsulants

Ceramic package

Plastic Subs.

Frames & Wires

PCB

Substrates

Patterning

Metalization

Chems &Gases

Solders

Other

Electrolytes

Cathodes/anodes

Solar

Wafers

MetalsSaw wire

Slurry

Pastes

ChemicalsGases

EncapsulantsBacksheets

Glass substrates

Packaging

Other

Gases

Dep.

Substrates

Total = 122.8

Adv Batt

Separators

Compound/LED


14


Electronic Segment Drivers

Device Segment Semi FPD PV HBLED

Driver • Memory requirements

• BOPS• Portable

electronics

• Human interface

• Touch panel• Viewing angle

• Environmental• Lower cost /

Wp

• Environmental• Lower cost per lumen

Key technologies • Lithography• MGuFET• Novel Materials• PCRAM /

RRAM / CT

• IPS• PVA• MVA

• Materials• Processes• Designs• Cost

• MOCVD for nitride film growth

• Phosphors• Encapsulants• Thermal management

Materials Segment Commodities Specialties

Driver • Large volume• Consistency• Cost

• Low volume• High service requirements• Proprietary products

• not easily substituted• Purchased for performance• Profit margins are higher

Key technologies • High volume manufacturing • Proprietary formulations• Synthesis• Applications expertise


15


Materials Intensity by Market

$300Bn$Bn Semiconductors has the lowest materials intensity, but requires a high R&D input in comparison to comparable electronic device segments.

Materials requirements includes substrates, and packaging materials.


16


Growing Importance of Process Materials


17


Semiconductor Material Demand

• Process complexity is driving higher growth in materials demand than the wafer start growth– The BOM component of

semiconductor sales will increase over the next 5 years

• Photoresist and Ancillaries will show segment growth of 15%, higher than other major segments, and higher than the wafer start growth.

• Vapor deposition will continue to displace physical deposition, driving growth of ALD and CVD materials.


18


Industry Structure, 2014

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

>1 1 0.8 0.5 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.13 0.045 0.032

0.09

0.065

DRAM

NAND

NOR

Adv Logic

Logic

Analog

Discrete

Notes: 1. Bottom axis is on a percentage basis2. Size of box is proportional to # wafer starts3. Source: Semico and Linx estimates

The new “Silicon Valley”

Business model changes required / desirable?

Materials innovations required

WSPY, KB

road

band

i-lin

e

248

nm

193

/ 19

3i


19


Litho Roadmap - NAND


20


300mm Production

US Europe S’Pore China Taiwan

Korea Japan

Memory Foundry Logic

Where are the Materials Suppliers?


21


Little Consolidation in Chemicals

However, the equipment producers have begun a recent round of consolidation with:

• Applied Materials acquiring Semitool and Varian

• Tokyo Electron acquiring Nexx Systems and Oerlikon

• Lam Research acquiring Novellus

Many indications are that this may be to align each companies’ portfolio for through silicon via (TSV)

Herfindahl Index example in CMP slurries. There has been little consolidation in the supply of electronic chemicals.

Consolidation is happening at the end user level in semi and LCD• Micron will likely

acquire Elpida• Formation of Japan

Display – Sony, Toshiba, Hitachi in FPD

Electronic Chemicals Fab Equipment Device Producers


22


The Quality Journey

• Quality Improvement– Increasing number of metals and elements in CofA

• 8 to 24– Increased Sensitivity

• ppm -> ppb -> ppt• Inorganic chemicals regularly specified at ppt levels

– Function specifications becoming more specific• Resolution, DOF EL, line collapse, profile, adhesion, footing, toploss, LER, LWR• Selective etch rates• Polish rates, defectivity, dishing

• Service Improvement– Beyond SPC– Ship to stock qualification

• Sub-Supplier Monitoring– Materials component supply analysis– Materials fingerprinting


23


Advanced Materials Learning/Characterization

• Well controlled manufacturing at the supplier leads to product qualification

• Changed process at the sub-supplier changes end product performance

• Process audit located the change, and was rectified at cost of time and product

Sourcing

Reaction

Purification

Packaging

Shipping

Receiving

Reaction

Formulation

Purification

Application TestQC

Distillation

Shipping

QC

SupplierSubSupplier

SubSupplier

Purification • Sub-supplier process mapping during product development

• Beyond CofA material fingerprinting

• Understand and Control variation


24


FUTURE TRENDS TO WATCH


25


Directed Self Assembly• DSA represents a possible resolution

extension for ArFi:– Segregating Block Co-polymers

form reduced pitch alternating polymer films with selective etch properties.

– Pattern transfer follows traditional routes.

• DSA is being pursued by multiple companies.

• DSA can be implemented with optical, e-beam, imprint or EUV exposure.

• Defect levels remain high, but have been reduced to levels that indicate production capability.


26


TSV Scenarios – More Than Moore

Category 2010 - 2015 2016 - 2020 2021 - 2025

DRAM

LOGIC

NAND

Source: HMCC

Mem

ory

Cub

e Stacked DRAM

Hyb

rid C

ube Consolidate

address logic on one device

Sys

tem

Cub

e Package system components vertically


27


Conclusions

• Growth returns in 2013.• A high upside potential remains in specialty materials for Semiconductors

– This is offset by significant R&D requirements– HKMG, FinFETs, FDSOI, 3D-NAND and STT-MRAM development programs

are already well advanced, although challenges remain at 22nm and below.– Now is the time to place bets for the next generation architectures.

• More Moore has significant implications for both equipment and materials suppliers– 450mm is driven by fab economics, not materials markets. Prepare for

deployment over the next 5 years.– 450mm will probably slow materials market growth.

• EUV is needed ASAP to mitigate process complexity and keep wafer cost low. Challenges of source power, and resist performance continue to slow implementation.

• Materials demand grows faster than Semiconductor Unit growth due to process complexity.– Patterning, CVD and ALD, and CMP all drive materials demand growth.

• 3D Packaging and TSV processing is a key area for focus over the next 5 years.

global electronic-materials-supply-chain

Business

global growth

savingsome patterning

euv wafer cost effect

cost perbit

total electronic materials

global electronics

theintersection of electronic

advanced materials