global economic crisis – impact on power sector an outline centre for computer aided power sector...
TRANSCRIPT
Global Economic Crisis – Impact on Power Sector
An Outline
Centre for Computer aided Power Sector Studies(C-CAPSS)
KSEB Officers' Association
Crisis – Some dimensions
Crisis surfacing after collapse of housing bubble in the US – spreading fast to Europe and to other economies
Most analysts consider the present crisis as the biggest and deepest since the great depression of 1930's
Fall in Industrial output, Growth in Unemployment, Failure of finance sector enterprises - all indicating deterioration on each passing day
January '09 – IMF projects a meagre 0.5 % growth for global economy
March '09 – WB forecasts that both the global economy and volume of global trade will shrink for the first time since world war II
Reasons, solutions...
There are differing school of thoughts
Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman sites huge and growing global imbalances
IMF sites poor or lack of regulation of finance sector, failure of market discipline etc
Major response to the crisis has come in the form of huge stimulus packages – either to boost demand in the economy or to salvage troubled financial institutions – so far failed to create any noticeable impact
Emerging picture....
Even though there are different views on the exact timing of a recovery, there is consensus that the crisis will remain for a long duration
Demand contraction is evident in almost all major economies
All major developed economies are in official recession and major developing economies has downsized their growth rates
Signs of political unrest is emerging from different parts of the world
Emerging picture...
Across the board call for intervention by and increased role of Government – stimulus packages, social security nets... There may be differing views on the exact ways for
government intervention – Keynesian or otherwise, but there is consensus for its need
Gone are the days of less government
Loss of faith in free markets – consensus for more and stringent regulation Dr. Manmohan Singh blaming casino capitalism Neo-liberal argument of self correction ability of
markets failed.
Crisis and the power sector
Correlation between GDP and energy consumption is well established
Relation between electricity consumption and GDP is more profound
Naturally there is a need for a review of the development plans/strategy for the power sector in view of the gigantic proportions of the crisis
There is also a need for a review of the existing policy framework which is built on the basic concepts of free market and less government
Impact on Electricity consumption
Industrial output in developed countries declined by 12 – 31%
In India as per reports of Central Statistical Organisation, industrial production has gone down for the second consecutive month in January
Growth in GDP is being lowered (latest figure is 5.25% for 2009-10 by IMF)
Growth rate of electricity generation has come down to 1.8% in January
Impact on Electricity consumption
Some industries in Kerala are reporting reduced consumption of up to 50%
All over India, lot of industries having captive generation capacity has started supplying surplus power to the grid from around October '08 onwards, pushing down market prices
Share of industrial consumption in the overall basket is around 35 – 40% across the country
Impact of the crisis in construction sector, services sector etc are yet to get documented
Impact on finances
The crisis has a profound impact on the finances of power utilities
The speculative price spiral witnessed in energy commodities like crude and coal has almost bankrupted many of the utilities. The price hike in these commodities has influenced the rate of power in the trading market in India. Utilities in Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Karnataka, AP, Rajasthan, Maharastra etc are the worst affected
Kerala was also affected during the period between May – October 2008
Impact on finances
For Kerala, speculative price increase of energy commodities coincided with the monsoon failure, reduction in Indian coal availability and accident at Moozhiyar all leading to more dependence on Naphtha/diesel power and power from open market
Additional financial burden in a month touched almost Rs 250 crores in June '08
The deepening of crisis in September and subsequent fall in crude prices has relieved the burden to a certain extent
Impact on finances
Even though Naphtha prices touched a low in December, it is showing an increasing trend thereafter. Appreciation of US $ is also affecting the price of fuel delivered
Present cost of power generation is about Rs 5/unit (which went up to Rs 13/unit) against an average retail tariff of less than Rs 3.5/unit
Fall in industrial consumption will affect the revneue of utility as well as profitability, due to loss of cross subsidy support
Fluctuation in price of construction materials also have a major impact on capital investment
Impact on capital investments
The turmoil in capital markets world over, marked by fall in stock exchanges, is bound to affect capacity addition plans in the sector
The reported drying up of credit will naturally impact the capital intensive power sector
However, the fall in interest rates represents an opportunity for raising finance at a lower cost
Bursting of construction (Housing) boom represents an opportunity for lower acquisition cost of materials for capital works
Resource requirement
11th plan target 78,577 MW
Fund requirement to the tune of Rs 5,00,000 crores
Private sector contribution expected is less than Rs 1,00,000 crores
In 12th plan a more active role of private sector was projected, with investment in UMPPs alone touching Rs 1,44,000 crores
Resource requirement
In Kerala, the 11th plan outlay of KSEB is Rs 5922.48 crores.
At present KSEB is looking for even a higher capital investment to clear inadequacies in the system In view of tremendous growth shown by different
sectors in the immediate past Large investment projects proposed in the State like
Vizhinjam port, Vallarpadam container terminal, LNG terminal, Smart city, metro rail etc
Internal targets for next year alone reworked as about Rs 2300 crore based on stake holder feed backs
Power projects for Kerala
Considering the present inadequacies in the distribution sector, massive annual investments of over Rs 1000 crore is anticipated for the next 2-3 years based on decentralised planning
Similarly an investment to the tune of Rs 2700 crores is anticipated in the transmission sector by 2012
In generation, 2400 MW cheemeni project alone calls for an investment of about Rs 10,000 crores. Coal mining project in Orissa is progressing
Major investments in hydel, wind etc are also coming up
Challenges and Oppurtunities
Power utilities in India has a huge backlog to clear, as is evident from the present demand-supply gap
Position in Kerala is not much different, even though power shortages are less
The economic crisis may, to a certain extent, reduce the demand-supply gap but is not expected to wipe it out in view of the GDP still growing and thrust on 100% village and household electrification etc
Challenges and Oppurtunities
Thus the crisis presents an opportunity to clear the backlog and close the demand-supply gap
The exact micro level requirement of network expansion may require case by case examination, taking into consideration the impact of the crisis on the user end projects
For capturing the opportunity, strategies for meeting the resource requirements are to be worked out, which lead to policy questions
Policy questions
In the current finance sector turmoil, anticipating huge investments from private sector may not be prudent. This calls for public sector investment
To ensure adequate public sector investment, some of the policy prescriptions in the neo-liberal era requires change. Instead of less government there is need for huge deficit financing by the Government
Financially healthy utilities like KSEB as well as central public sector utilities will be in a position to raise resources and shall play a major role
Policy questions
Huge public investments will also help in increasing demand in the economy and sustain growth in economy
Regulating the power market is an urgent necessity for restoring the financial health of most of the utilities PFC report on power sector utilities has brought out
the havoc created in the finances of various utilities (TNEB, PSEB etc) by the power market imperfections
In view of failure of markets in all most all sectors, the thrust for creating free market structures in power sector needs correction
To sum up....
The global economic crisis creates challenges and opportunities for the power sector
Increased role of Government and public investment in power sector is required for Overcoming the crisis of demand-supply gap in
power sector Generate demand in the economy and sustain growth
Free markets are not a solution. Socially controlled public investment and integrated structure of power utilities are required.
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