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Global economic and trade trends: game changer for ports?
22 May 2012, JerusalemProf. Dr. Theo NotteboomPresident, ITMMA – University of AntwerpPresident, International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME)
The International Association of Ports & Harborswww.iaphworldports.org
Trade flows: a world of regional trading blocks
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Source: adapted from Notteboom (2012)
Share of intra-regional merchandise trade in total tradeBasis = trade value in billion dollars
8
6
49
19
12
10
53
Commonwealth of Independent
Africa
Middle East
Asia
2010
2000
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Source: own compilation based on WTO data
40
17
68
27
49
26
71
19
00 20 40 60 80
North America
South and Central America
Europe
Commonwealth of IndependentStates (CIS)
Trade flows: a world of global cities2012 Global Cities Index – top 15 cities worldwide
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Source: The Chicago Council for Global Affairs and AT Kearney
Trade flows: a world of global cities2012 Global Cities Index – future position of emerging cities
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Source: The Chicago Council for Global Affairs and AT Kearney
Trade flows: share of Asia in total merchandise trade?Basis = trade value in billion dollars
7
17
48
15
24
53
Commonwealth of IndependentStates (CIS)
Africa
Middle East
2010
International Association of Ports & Harbors
Source: own compilation based on WTO data
22
6
8
21
23
9
00 10 20 30 40 50 60
North America
South and Central America
Europe
2010
2000
Distribution of European container trade volumes
9%
3%10%
Exports from Europe
Asia
Indian subcon nent and Mi ddl e East
8%
1% 4%
Imports to Europe Asia
Indian subcon nent and Middle EastNorth America
ExtraExtra--European European Container trade volumes – 2011 – basis = TEU
15.9 mln TEU 21.4 mln TEU
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38%
19%
21%
9%EastNorth America
South & Central America
Australia and Oceania
Sub-Saharan Africa
65%9%
13%North America
South & CentralAmericaAustralia and Oceania
Sub-Saharan Africa
IntraIntra--EuropeanEuropean3.7 mln TEU or 9.1% of total European container traffic
Asia rising: the top container port regions in the world
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65TEU th
orughp
ut in M
illions
Pearl River Delta (China)
Malacca Straits (Singapore/Malaysia)
Yangtze River Delta (China)
Bohai Bay (China)
Rhine-Scheldt Delta (Bel/Nl)
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
TEU th
orughp
ut in M
illions
Rhine-Scheldt Delta (Bel/Nl)
Korean Twin Hub (Korea)
San Pedro Bay (US West Coast)
Helgoland Bay (Germany)
Taiwan
Tokyo Bay (Japan)
Source: Notteboom (2012)
Routing of trade flows
• The future of seaports is not only about expected future trade flows.
• It is more about how and under which conditions these
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• It is more about how and under which conditions these flows will move globally within a supply chain perspective.
=> Key role for ports: port activity can not be narrowed down to a derived activity
Routing of trade flows: a layered perspective
LogisticalShipper
CustomerDistribution networks,
port choice,modal choice, IT
Maritime service networks,Intermodal networks
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Locational
Infrastructural
TransportIntermodal networks
Transport infrastructure
networks
Routing of trade flows: key considerations
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Routing of trade flows: key considerations
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Routing trade flows: the asset management gameLower costs through scale increases in vessel size
• New standard sizes on mainline routes• Cascading of vessels to north-south routes• Upscaling of feeder vessel sizes
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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Triple ‘E’ class – source: Maersk Line
Routing trade flows: cost Low margins are stimulating a focus on cost control
cust
omer
High Delivering a ‘high value’
service
Problem: how
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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Value creation for customer
Pric
e to
cust
omer
LowLow
High
Providing a ‘low cost’ service
What the market wants
Problem: howto secure margins?
COST-EFFICIENT ports and port systemsAs part of cost-efficient chains and networks
• Shift of cost burden from seaside to landside• Gains mainly to be made in terms of bundling and synchronizing flows• Role of ports as information centres• PA pricing: cost-based pricing vs. commercial/strategic pricing
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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• PA pricing: cost-based pricing vs. commercial/strategic pricing
Routing of trade flows: key considerations
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Need for SUSTAINABILITYThe carbon footprint challenge
Example of externali eson or i gi n- des na onrou tes
Mari me + i nl andt ranspor t (index = 100 is lowe stCO 2 emission on route)
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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SUSTAINABLE ports and port systems
• Higher regulatory and societal requirements • Compliance in order to ensure community support & to attract customers.• Environmental management system, toolbox, sustainability report, etc..• Cost of going beyond compliance?
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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Routing of trade flows: key considerations
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FLEXIBILITY in the global transport system
Routing possibilities on the North Europe - Far East trade
East-West rail corridors
Northern Sea Route
c ab
da
e
Northwest Passage
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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Source: adapted from Notteboom (2012)
Cape Route
Suez Canal
Legenda = Trans-Siberian Railwayb = Trans-Manchurian Railway c = Trans-Mongolian Railwayd = Baikal Amur Mainline (BAM) e = New Asia-Europe Land-Bridge
Panama Canal route
AirFreight rateto shipper
(gate-to-gate)
Impact slow steaming &
Direct services ?Fast ships ?
FLEXIBILITY in the global transport systemFilling the gap?
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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Transit me
Liner shipping
steaming &transshipment
Americas
Transhipment/interlining port (transhipment incidence >75%)
Multi-port gateway region
Main shipping route
Gateway port
Gateway port also handlingsubstantial transhipment flows
UK
NL
Ireland
Sweden
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Norway
Finland
Belarus
Russia
Den.
FLEXIBILITY (and concentra on) in the European port system
Middle East – Far East
Main shipping route
Americas
Americas
© 2011 T. Notteboom – ITMMA, University of Antwerp
Germany
France
Belg.
NL
Romania
Spain
Croatia
Hungar
Czech RepublicSlovakia
SerbiaBosnia&
Herz.
Alb.
Greece
Bulgaria
Turkey
Ukraine
PortugalMace.
AustriaSwitz.
Italy
Poland
MoroccoAlgeria Tunisia
Cyprus
Malta
FLEXIBILITY in the European port system
Multi-port gateway regions – example Rhine-Scheldt Delta
0 50 100 150 20025Kilometers
Germany
NetherlandsROTTERDAM
Emmerich
Nijmegem
Amsterdam
Alkmaar
Beverwijk Zaandam
HarlingenLeeuwarden
Veendam
Meppel
GroningenHeerenveen
Kampen
Coevorden
Hengelo
DoesburgUtrechtA. a/d Rijn
Gorinchem
Den BoschOss
Valburg
Seaport
Logistics corridors
Inland Container Terminal (trimodal)Inland Container Terminal (barge/truck)Inland Container Terminal (rail/truck)
Growth region EuropeanDistribution (outside seaport system)
Dordrecht
Urk
LelystadEnkhuizen
Waalwijk
HaaftenTiel
Veghel Cuijk
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
International Association of Ports & HarborsSource: Notteboom (2012)
France
Belgium
Lux
GermanyZeeland Seaports
ANTWERPZeebrugge
Ghent
Ostend
BrusselsLilleLiège
WielsbekeGenk
DuisburgEmmerich
Avelgem
Born
Venlo
Valenciennes
VilvoordeWillebroek
Deurne
Meerhout
Duesseldorf
Cologne
Krefeld
Neuss
Bonn
Andernach
DortmundTilburgOosterhout
Eindhoven
Moerdijk Den Bosch
Stein
Mertert
Koblenz
DormagenDunkirk
Ghlin Mons
Charleroi Centre Ardenne
Athus
Grobbendonk
Dourges
Bettembourg
La Louvière Sambreville
Kortrijk
Mouscron
Muizen
Herent
Beringen
Lanaken
Veghel
Weert
WanssumCuijk
Need for RELIABILITYSchedule reliability in liner shipping - April-June 2010
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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Source: based on data Drewry
Need for RESILIENCE Calamities, disasters, political changes are affecting supply chains
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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RELIABILITY, FLEXIBILITY and RESILIENCE demand VISIBILITY through advanced IT systems
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
International Association of Ports & HarborsSource: DHL
FLEXIBLE ports and port systems
Seaport choice is likely to become more flexible• Last minute decisions on final port choice? • B/L for inland destinations• Driven by equipment utilization, liner service synchronization• “Not all eggs in one basket”
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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• “Not all eggs in one basket”
RELIABLE ports and port systems
Ports will increasingly have to offer service guarantees• In a supply chain setting (foreland-port-hinterland)• Adopting new partnership models• Even in a more volatile business environment
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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Promise to partners, to investors, to the
communities
RESILIENT ports and port systems
• To support supply chain resilience• Redefining the buffer function of seaports in supply chains• Implications on land utilization and strategic port planning
Cost(Out-of-pocket and indirect)
FlexibilityResilienceReliability
Sustainability
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Conclusion: is the game changing for ports?
• Higher uncertainties and risks facing ports & port authorities
• Future will bring stronger focus on • cost efficiency• flexibility, resilience, reliability
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• flexibility, resilience, reliability• sustainability
• Should PA focus on single port?• Foreland-port-hinterland triptych• Multi-port gateway region
Thank you for your attention !
www.itmma.ua.ac.bewww.porteconomics.eu
www.iame.info
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