global earth-system monitoring using space & in-situ data, a.hollingsworth ecmwf december 2003...

Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space & in-situ data, A.Hollingsworth ECMWF December 2003 Slide 1

GEMSGlobal Earth-system Monitoring

using Space and in-situ data

Anthony Hollingsworth

ECMWF


MONDAY 15 December 2003 Presentations

13.30 Tony Hollingsworth (ECMWF) Welcome and Overview of the GEMS project

13.55 Peter Cox (UKMO) The global greenhouse gas sub-project

14.20 Martin Schultz MPI-Met) The global reactive gas sub-project

14.45 Olivier Boucher (LOA-Lille) The global Aerosol project

15.10 Coffee

15.40 Keith Edwards (ECMWF) Administrative aspects of the GEMS Integrated Project

16.05 V-H Peuch (Meteo-France) The Regional Air-Quality project

16.30 Adrian Simmons (ECMWF) The GEMS production systems, and retrospective analysis of the EOS-ENVISAT era

16.55 H.Eskes (KNMI) Overall Validation of the GEMS system

17.20 Discussion

18.00 Buffet at ECMWF Discussion in teams


Tuesday 16 December 2003 WORK09.00 (Coffee will be

available from 1000-1030)

Discussions within the sub-projects to prepare the proposal.

12.30 Lunch

13.30 Plenary, with presentation / discussion of the plans of each of the sub-projects, followed by general discussion

16.00 Close


Drivers of GMES requirements

• Policy Needs: Assessment, Validation of treaties

• Convention on Long-Range Transport of Air Pollutants

• Montreal Protocol

• UNFCCC- Kyoto Protocol / carbon trading ….

• Operational Needs• Air quality forecasts• Chemical Weather Forecasts

• Scientific Needs• IPCC• WMO / Global Atmospheric Watch• World Climate Research Programme• IGBP, GCOS, GTOS……


Late 2003: GMES Status / plans for Integrated Projects

• Integrated Projects (start 2004)• GEOLAND• MERSEA

• Integrated Projects (start 2005)• Atmosphere• Risks• Water Resources• Security

• Specific Support Action (start 2004)• HALO: Harmonised Co-ordination of Atmosphere, Land

Ocean IPs: • HALO Partners: ECMWF, Atmosphere_IP, GEOLAND,

MERSEA, Alcatel, Astrium


Expected content of December 2003 Call for Atmosphere Integrated Project• Atmosphere Integrated Project should meet GMES needs

for • Atmosphere Dynamics and Composition

• Troposphere and Stratosphere

• Regional air quality

• GEMS Response: Atmosphere Integrated Project to

• Deliver, by end 2007, a validated operational system for

assimilation /modelling of atmospheric composition

• Based on an innovative synthesis of existing scientific

and operational capabilities

• Every sub-project has major innovations - 100% RTD


Additional variables and simplified chemistry in IFS • 2002: Ozone, • 2004: CO2

• 2007: ~20 species/families

•Assimilate groups of trace variables in 4D-Var, one group per global sub-project

•Run the development system(s) at T159; partners can run assimilations remotely

• Fast access for partners to results (e.g. via a dedicated Geant Virtual Private Network)

GEMS approach: Extend European capabilities by• modelling trace constituents in the IFS &…. • assimilating data on trace constituents in 4D-Var• using the global system to support regional systems.


Real-time operational implementations will be required for

•‘Global reactive gases’

•‘Global Aerosol’

•‘Regional Air Quality’

Depending on data availability, the ‘Greenhouse Gas’ assimilation may be run in slightly-delayed /very-delayed mode

•The Inversion stage of the ‘Greenhouse gas’ sub-project requires calibrated flask data and will certainly run in delayed mode.

From time to time (every 5 years) there will be a need to re-analyse the whole period of instrumental (satellite?) record, using the latest science and methodology.

2008-2012 is the ‘commitment period’ for the Kyoto protocol

Operational Continuation beyond 2007


GEMS Sub-projects

1. GLOBAL GREEHOUSE GASES: Monitor seasonal variations of non-

reactive Greenhouse Gases such as CO2, CH4, N2O (+CO)

2. GLOBAL REACTIVE-GASES: Monitor ozone and its precursors, and sulphate aerosol and its precursors.

3. GLOBAL AEROSOL: Model and assimilate global aerosol information

4. GEMS REGIONAL AIR-QUALITY PROJECT

5. PRODUCTION SYSTEM: System Development and Integration, Reanalysis production and Data Infrastructure project

6. OVERALL SYSTEM VALIDATION PROJECT: Validate the pre-operational system through observational verification of retrospective analyses for the "EOS - ENVISAT" epoch ~1998-2006


Global Greenhouse Gases, Lead: UK Met Office

Institute PI cc Activity Cost modelFC/AC /FCF

UKMO Peter Cox Model/Assimilation

LMD A.Chedin Radiation

Max-Planck, Jena

M.Heimann Dr.Knorr Inversion/ Validation

LSCE P.Ciais Inversion/Validation

ECMWF A.Hollingsworth A.SimmonsM.Miller

Radiation/Assimilation


Global Reactive Gases Lead: Max-Planck Inst f. Met.Institute PI cc Activity Cost model

FC /AC /FCF

Max-PlanckHamburg

Guy Brasseur M.Schultz ModelMozart CTM

KNMI Gerbrand Komen Henk Eskes Assimilation


ModelAssimilation

Mace Head(NUI Galway)

S.G.Jennings Validation

Nat. Hellenic Res. Fndn (NHRF)

C.Zerefos Validation

DWD P.Winkler H.Berresheim Validation


Global Aerosol Lead: LOA_Lille

Institute PI cc Activity Cost modelFC/AC /FCF

LOA_Lille

O.Boucher Radiation Modelling

Max PlanckHamburg

H.Feichter Modelling


Assimilation Modelling

UKMO P.Cox J.Hayman Validation

Mace Head(NUI Galway)

S.G.Jennings C.O’Dowd Validation


Regional Air Quality Lead Meteo-FranceInstitute PI cc Activity Cost model

FC / AC /FCF

Meteo-France V-H.Peuch Assim. /ModelValidation

U.Koeln H.Elbern ‘’

B. Met Inst. A.Quinet ‘’

Norwegian Met Inst.

A.Eliassen L.Tarrason ‘’

Finnish Met Inst

P.Taalas H.Jarvinen ‘’

DanishMet Inst.

Leif Laursen ‘’

CNR / ISAC, Bologna

F.Tampieri ‘’

(NHRF) C.Zerefos D.Balis ‘’


Production System, Data Infrastructure,Retrospective Analysis, Lead ECMWFInstitute PI cc Activity Cost model

FC / AC / FCF


Data managementDevelop Production systemRetrospective analysis

AC


Overall System Validation Lead KNMI

Institute PI cc ActivityCost modelFC / AC / FCF

All partnersCheck-out of pre-operational system


Geographical distribution of annual effort by country (incl.ECMWF)

Geographical distribution of annual Science effort by project

ProjectECMWF

F D UK It Fin N DK B NL IRLGree

ce

GHG 1 1.7 0.7 2.5

GRG 1.5 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0.5

A/sol 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.5

RAQ 0 1.5 1 0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0 0.4 0.5

Validation 0 0 0.9 0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0Sub-totals on science 3 4.7 4.8 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Infrastructure annual effort including production system and retrospective analysis

System & production 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Summary of geographical distribution of overall annual effort

Overall totals 9 4.7 4.8 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Grand total 29.5


Duration

• Current (very safe) cost estimate gives a duration of 3 years.

• If the estimate is too cautious, the flexibility may enable a prolongation of the project into 2008

• However, some flexibility is needed to include • partner from the Accession countries• partner from an SME, working e.g. on outreach

• Please let me have your cost estimates as soon as possible


List of potential Associated Institutes / Projects

Institute Contact points web-site

DLR U.SchumannM.DamerisM.Bittner

www.dlr.de/ipa/

ESA/ESRIN O.Arino www.esa.int

EUMETSAT D.Williams www.eumetsat.de

CHIMERE R.Vautard www.euler.polytechnique.fr/chimere

MOZAIC J-P.Cammas www.aero.obs-mip.fr/mozaic

NDSCNetwork for Detection of Stratospheric Change

S.Bekki www.ndsc.ncep.noaa.gov

SRON I. Aben


DUE Project: GlobAERInput: Multi-sensor satellite data fusion

• ATSR, MERIS, SeaWiFS, MSG, MODIS, GOES, AVHRR

Output:

• Comparable, Consistent, Transparent and Complete!

• Direct retrieval from satellite observations

• Model-derived from assimilation of TOA radiances

Status: User Requirements Document currently under review.

Invitation to tender: To be issued in Jan 2004

Budget: Max. € 1 000 000

Jun2004

Apr2005

Mar2005

Continue?

Design and Build

Proto Val Service

Jan2006

FullValidation

Assimilation and intercomp-arison

May2006

Users

• Atmospheric modelling community (ECMWF, MeteoFrance, UKMO, DKRZ, etc)

• Transboundary pollution monitoring (EMEP)

• Regional air quality monitoring agencies (Athens, Lombardia, Flanders, etc)

Applications

• Climate change and atmospheric chemistry

• Particulate emission sources and dynamics

• Background for regional air quality monitoring

• Atmospheric correction of optical satellite data

Products/Activities

• Global aerosol climatology (1995 - 2005)

Land and Ocean

Multi-resolution

Size distribution: PM10, PM2.5

Speciation: soot, mineral, marine, etc.

• Assimilation into models and intercomparison exercise

DUE Project: GlobAER


SUGGESTED SCHEDULE FOR PROPOSAL PREPARATION

Jan 17 First drafts of the chapters circulated for general comment.

Feb 20 Second, near-final, draft of the GEMS proposal circulated for comment, plus first draft of the Consortium Agreement

March 5 Proposal finalised.

March 12

Proposal Submitted


ENDthank you for your

attention!


CO2 assimilation -Troposphere

CO2 tropospheric columns are being assimilated from AIRS infrared observations. Monthly mean distribution for May 2003 is shown on the left, and the upper boundary for the error estimate is shown on the right.


CO2 assimilation - Stratosphere

First analysis of stratospheric CO2 shows Brewer-Dobson type of circulation. Variability is also much smaller than in troposphere.


Table 10 GEMS Satellite Data Utilisation

GEMS SubProject

Retriev

als Radiance

s

Greenhouse gases

Mission Instruments y

EMVISAT SCIAMACHY

EOS - AQUA AIRS y

EOS-AURA OMI y

METOP-1 IASI y

NPP CrIS y

OCO OCO y


Global reactive gases Mission Instruments Retrievals Radiances

ENVISATSCIAMACHY,

GOMOSy

MIPAS y

NOAA_16 SBUV-2 y

ERS-2 GOME y

MSG SEVIRI y

EOS - AQUA AIRS y

EOS-AURA OMI, HIRDLS y

METOP-1 IASI y

NPP CrIS y

OCO OCO y

Meteor-3, ADEOS_2

TOMS y


Global Aerosol

Mission Instruments Retrievals

ENVISAT MERIS y

METEOR SAGE y

TERRA MODIS y

AQUA MODIS y

ADEOS-2 OCTS y

AURA HIRDLS y

SEAWIFS SEAWIFS y


DUE Project: GlobAERInput: Multi-sensor satellite data fusion


Output:






Budget: Max. € 1 000 000

Jun2004

Apr2005

Mar2005

Continue?

Design and Build

Proto Val Service

Jan2006

FullValidation


May2006

Input: Multi-sensor satellite data fusion


Output:






Budget: Max. € 1 000 000

Jun2004

Apr2005

Mar2005

Continue?

Design and Build

Proto Val Service

Jan2006

FullValidation


May2006

DUE Project: GlobAER


Project ECMWF F D UK It Fin N DK B NL IRL Greece

GHG 1 1.7 0.7 2.5

GRG 1.5 1.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.7 0.3 0.5

A/sol 0.5 1.5 0.5 0.5

RAQ 0 1.5 1 0 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0 0.4 0.5

Validation 0 0 0.9 0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0

Sub-totals on science

3 4.7 4.8 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Analysis of geographical distribution of annual effort by country (incl.ECMWF)

Table 7a: Analysis of geographical distribution of annual Science effort by project

Table 7b: Analysis of Infrastructure annual effort including production system and retrospective analysis

System & production

6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Table 7c:Summary of geographical distribution of overall annual effort

Overall totals 9 4.7 4.8 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Grand total 29.5

global earth-system monitoring using space & in-situ data, a.hollingsworth ecmwf december 2003...

Documents

global system

global subproject

gems system

gems project

global greenhouse gases

global reactivegases

gtos slide

astrium slide