global construction trends & forecasts - · pdf fileglobal construction trends &...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Global construction
trends & forecasts
Chris Sleight
Editor
International Construction
![Page 2: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Contents
Global economic picture
Construction markets & forecasts
Economic drivers for tower cranes
Tower crane markets of the future
Summary
![Page 3: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
International Construction
The only global magazine for the whole
construction industry
50 years old this year
Published by KHL Group – global leader
in international construction information
![Page 4: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
World economic growth 2012
EU 0.0%
US 2.0%
LAm 3.4%
MENA 5.5%
S Af 5.4%
CIS 4.1%
JP 2.4%
RoA 7.1%
WORLD 3.3%
![Page 5: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
World economic growth 2013
-0.4%
US 2.2%
LAm 3.2%
MENA 5.3%
S Af 5.0%
CIS 4.0%
JP 2.2%
RoA 6.7%
WORLD 3.9%
![Page 6: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
The post-recession world
2007 GDP Growth 2013 GDP Growth
US +1.9% +2.2%
EU +3.4% -0.4%
China +14.1% +8.5%
Developed Countries +2.8% +1.9%
Emerging Markets +8.7% +5.9%
WORLD +5.4% +3.9%
![Page 7: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Summary
Economic growth will remain lower than in the boom years
Growth in emerging markets (but slower than before)
Weak recovery in developed markets
Too much debt
Poor policies & political leadership
![Page 8: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
GDP – construction relationship
Construction output ~ 10% of GDP
Global GDP ~ US$ 75 trillion
Global construction ~ US$ 7.5 trillion
Construction tends to track GDP growth
But specific policies & events have an impact
![Page 9: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Construction markets – relative sizes
EU 24%
CIS 4%
LAM 8%
ME+AF 6%
NAM 24%
ASIA+AUS 34%
Total size ~ US$ 7.5 trillion
![Page 10: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Construction markets – Europe
Germany & Scandinavia growing
Indebted countries in crisis
Unimpressive recovery in 2014 (?)
Austerity = weak civil engineering
Market -20% below peak
Size ~ US$ 1450 billion
Growth ~ -2%
![Page 11: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Construction markets – US
Recovery after long recession
- Growth from a low base
- 30% below peak (June 2006)
Private sector driving growth
Public sector falling
Housing starts still weak
Size ~ US$ 850billion
Growth ~ +6%
![Page 12: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Construction markets – Developing Asia
Growth, but not as strong as before
Slowdown in China & India
Growth in other markets
Focus on infrastructure & energy
Size ~ US$ 1250 billion
Growth ~ +6%
![Page 13: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Construction markets – Latin America
Brazil dominates
- Olympics & World Cup
- Energy & infrastructure
Strong smaller markets
- Chile, Panama, Peru
But not all of them!
- Venezuela, Argentina
Good long-term prospects
Size ~ US$ 550 billion
Growth ~ +6%
![Page 14: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Construction markets – Middle East & Africa
Commodity-price driven
- Unstable & unpredictable
- Some countries diversifying
Impact of Arab Spring
Very high growth in places
Business climate & political
stability?
Size ~ US$ 450 billion
Growth ~ +5%
![Page 15: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Construction markets – CIS
Russia dominates
- Oil price
- Focus on major events
- Business climate
- Lack of overall plan
Smaller countries diversifying
- Funded by gas & oil
wealth
Size ~ US$ 250 billion
Growth ~ +4%
![Page 16: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Construction growth summary 2012
EU -2%
US 6%
LAm 6%
ME & AF 5%
CIS 4%
RoA 6%
WORLD 4%
![Page 17: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Summary – construction markets
Slow post-recession recovery
2012-13 is a temporary(?) speed bump
Euro crisis (global impact)
Chinese slowdown
Developing markets offer best growth prospects
General focus on energy & infrastructure
![Page 18: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Economic drivers for tower cranes
![Page 19: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
What makes a good tower crane market?
High-rise construction
Residential & non-residential building
Wealth
High-rise buildings are expensive
Tower cranes are expensive
Economic growth & pressure on land
The need for more useable space
![Page 20: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
What makes a good tower crane market?
CITIES
![Page 21: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Urbanisation – positive long-term trend
By 2050, 75% of population will live in cities
(50% today)
7 billion people!
(3.5 billion today) About 800 cities with 1 million+ inhabitants
(450 today)
45 mega cities (10 million+ inhabitants)
(25 today)
![Page 22: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Tower crane markets of the future
What do the economic trends tell us?
![Page 23: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Not just any city!
High economic growth
Demand for more useable space
High population and/or confined geography
Need for more space – pressure to build upwards
General and individual wealth
Money to pay for more space
![Page 24: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Where are the high-growth cities? – top 100
Africa, 23
Asia, 52
Australasia; 1
Latin America, 14
Middle East,
8
North America; 2
![Page 25: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Where are the rich cities? – total GDP
Africa; 4
Asia, 22
Australasia; 3
Europe, 26 Latin
America, 12
Middle East; 6
North America, 26
![Page 26: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Where are the big cities? - Population
Africa, 13
Asia, 58
Australasia; 2
Europe, 7
Latin America,
10
Middle East; 7 North America;
3
![Page 27: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Where are the big, rich, growing cities?
City Country Population Growth rate
GDP
(US$ billion) GDP/capita
Brasilia Brazil 2,089,000 2.99% 45 21,708
Riyadh Saudi Arabia 4,950,000 3.09% 96 19,399
Jeddah Saudi Arabia 3,856,000 2.93% 65 16,962
Hyderabad India 3,637,000 2.91% 45 12,410
Bandung Indonesia 2,510,000 2.90% 31 12,297
Jakarta Indonesia 10,100,000 3.03% 117 11,606
Pune India 3,337,000 3.46% 37 11,026
Wuhan China 4,500,000 2.87% 45 10,007
Delhi India 12,100,000 3.48% 114 9,437
Bangalore India 5,840,000 2.79% 53 9,089
![Page 28: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Summary
Construction & economic growth in emerging markets
Long-term trend towards urbanisation
Tower crane sales will come from non-traditional markets
Opportunities and challenges!
![Page 29: Global construction trends & forecasts - · PDF fileGlobal construction trends & forecasts Chris Sleight Editor International Construction . Contents Global economic picture Construction](https://reader031.vdocuments.site/reader031/viewer/2022013005/5a7778d87f8b9a93088ddb52/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
More information
www.khl.com
Daily news
Weekly newsletters
Searchable archive – 10 years – 20,000 articles
Subscribe to magazines
Paper & digital magazine, apps, podcasts, videos, +++