GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE-LOCAL IMPACTS: THE CASE OF

PAKISTAN’S WATER RESOURCES

DR. ZIA UR RAHMAN HASHMI

GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES CENTRE

OUTLINE

• GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACTS

• THE CASE OF PAKISTAN-A WATER BASED ECONOMY

• CC IMPLICATIONS

• OUR RESPONSE

• ASSESSMENT (RESEARCH)

• POLICY

• ACTION

• CONCLUSIONS

2

STATE OF OUR KNOWLEDGE

• CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL

• IT IS ALREADY HERE

• IT IS HERE TO STAY

• IT IS HUMAN INDUCED

3

Solar Radiation

The Earth’s Climate System

There is a Natural Climate Variability as a result of

Interactions between external and internal influences4

4

Natural Climate

Variability

Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution

CLIMATE CHANGE

Global Warming

Changes in Precipitation patterns (Quantity & Distribution)

Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather

Events

IMPACTS

Uncertainty in Water Availability

Decrease in Crop Yields

Loss of Biodiversity

Increased Health Risks

Newer perspective for sources of energy

Spiraling Population

High pace of Industrialization

Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in

Industry & Transport

Deforestation for Agriculture and Urbanization

Climate Change

Natural + Anthropogenic

• TEMPERATURE DATA SHOWING RAPID WARMING IN THE PAST FEW DECADES

• ACCORDING TO NASA DATA, 2016 WAS THE WARMEST YEAR SINCE 1880,

CONTINUING A LONG-TERM TREND OF RISING GLOBAL TEMPERATURES

• THE 10 WARMEST YEARS IN THE 138-YEAR RECORD ALL HAVE OCCURRED

SINCE 2000, WITH THE FOUR WARMEST YEARS BEING THE FOUR MOST RECENT

YEARS. (SOURCE: NASA/NOAA)

6

IS IT REAL?

77

Past 1000 Year Changes in Average Global Surface Temperature

The available temperature records for the last 1000 years show that

the average global temperature was essentially constant (if anything,

slightly decreasing), until the start of the industrial revolution and has

been increasing since.

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/

409

8

CONSENSUS

IT IS ALREADY HERE!!!!!!!!

9

• We have already crossed 1oC

compared to pre-industrial

level

• Global warming is not

uniform

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INCREASING FREQUENCY OF CLIMATE INDUCED DISASTERS

11

12

Source: © 2018 Munich Re, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE. As of January 2018.

Between hurricane Florence in America and typhoon Mangkhut inthe Philippines and China, both hemispheres have been hit almostsimultaneously by unusually strong storm systems

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IT IS HERE TO STAY

• EVEN IF CO2 EMISSIONS WERE TO CEASE OVERNIGHT, THE HALF A

TRIILLION TONNES OF CARBON THAT HAVE BEEN PUMPED INTO

THE ATMOSPHERE SINCE MAJOR INDUSTRIALIZATION (⁓1850) WILL

AFFECT EARTH’S BIOSPHERE, GLACIERS AND OCEANS FOR

CENTURIES TO COME (IPCC)

• CO2 LEVELS ARE LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE DANGEROUS 400PPM FOR

THE REST OF OUR LIVES

• THE HUMAN ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY CAUSED ABOUT 1℃ OF

GLOBAL WARMING, WHILE AT THE PRESENT RATE OF WARMING

(0.2℃ PER DECADE) WE’LL HIT 1.5℃ BY ABOUT 2040

14

RECENT IPCC REPORT ON 1.5O C WARMING

https://currentaffairs.gktoday.in/ipcc-special-report-climate-change-key-points-10201861759.html 15

• The 1.5℃ target require

CO₂ emissions to

decline by 45% by 2030

(relative to 2010).

• By 2050, reach “net

zero” - further CO₂emissions have to be

matched by removal of

CO₂ already in the

atmosphere, including

by planting trees

ANTHROPOGENIC?

MULTIPLE STUDIES PUBLISHED IN PEER-

REVIEWED SCIENTIFIC JOURNALS SHOW

THAT 97 % OR MORE OF ACTIVELY

PUBLISHING CLIMATE SCIENTISTS AGREE:

CLIMATE-WARMING TRENDS OVER THE

PAST CENTURY ARE EXTREMELY LIKELY

DUE TO HUMAN ACTIVITIES

16

Source: www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au

THE CASE OF PAKISTAN- A WATER BASED ECONOMY

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• SUPER FLOOD (2010)

• HEAT WAVE IN KARACHI (2015)

• DROUGHT IN THAR (2014-2017 )

18

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Extreme Events 1985 – 1999 2000 – 2017

Large Scale Flooding 1988, 1992, 1997

2003, 2006,

2010, 2011, 2012,

2013, 2014, 2015

Localized Cloud Burst Events 1996 (Lahore)

2001 (Islamabad)

2009 (Karachi)

2010

Droughts 1998

1998 drought

continued till 2001-

02, 2014-17

Intense Heat Waves ---2003, 2005, 2007,

2010, 2015

Severe Cyclonic Storms/Wind

Storms1999 2007, 2010, 2016

Extreme Climate Events in Pakistan

GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX, 2017

SOURCE: HTTP://GERMANWATCH.ORG/DE/DOWNLOAD/16411.PDF

Pakistan is consistently rated among the top 10 in the list ofcountries most affected by Climate Change 20

21

(1) High elevation region (Source)

(3) Indus Delta region

(2) Water use region

PAKISTAN’ WATER RESOURCES

CLIMATE CHANGE AND PAKISTAN’S WATER WOES

DATA SCARCITY AND ABSENCE OF HIGH ELEVATION CLIMATE DATA

HEAVY DEPENDENCE OF IRS FLOWS ON KARAKORUM GLACIERS AND SNOW

MELT (60-70 % VS 10-15 % FOR INDIA)

DECREASING PER CAPITA WATER AVAILABILITY (DECREASED FROM 5800 M3 IN

1950 TO LESS THAN 1000 M3 AT PRESENT)

TRANS-BOUNDARY WATERS ISSUES

LARGE YEAR TO YEAR VARIABILITY OF IRS FLOWS

LOW STORAGE CAPACITY OF PAKISTAN; ONLY EQUIVALENT TO 30 DAYS OF

RIVER FLOWS WHILE IT IS 120 DAYS FOR INDIA, 700 DAYS IN EGYPT

DETERIORATING G/WATER QUALITY IN THE COASTAL/INDUS DELTA REGION

DUE TO REDUCED KOTRI DOWNSTREAM FLOWS AND SEA LEVEL RISE22

22

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PAKISTAN’S RESPONSE

• RESEARCH

• Policy

• Action

PAKISTAN’S CLIMATE AGENDA

• SAFETY AND WELLBEING OF THE PEOPLE

• SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC GROWTH

• FULFILLING INTERNATIONAL COMMITMENTS

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PAKISTAN’S STANCE

• ADAPTATION IS OUR PRIORITY

• BEING A RESPONSIBLE NATION, WE ARE PUTTING A LOT OF

EFFORTS IN MITIGATING OUR EMISSIONS E.G. PROMOTING

RENEWABLES, CONVERTING COAL PLANTS TO LNG AND VAST

AFFORESTATION DRIVES.

• WITH THE NEEDED FINANCIAL SUPPORT FROM DEVELOPED

COUNTRIES, WE CAN ENHANCE OUR EFFORTS MANY FOLDS

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RESEARCH

26

27

V =f(PI- AC )

Where V is vulnerability, PI is potential impact (=exposure + sensitivity), and

AC is adaptive capacity

Defining Water system’s Vulnerability

The degree of its inability to perform its normal function

under changing environmental/climatic and socio-economic

conditions

Adopted from Stathatou et. al. (2016)

Glaciers of the HKH region

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Upper Indus Basin

(UIB) region

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• Total Glacial Area…. = 15061.74 sq.km

• Est. total Ice Reserves..……….. = 2,174 Km3

• Total number of Glaciers……. = 11,413

• Area of the largest glacier…. = 925.93 Km2

Source: ICIMOD (2011)

Glaciers of UIB

30

Contribution of Snow/glaciers in UIB flows

• Snow/glacier melt contribute about 60-70% in upper

Indus flows (Tarbela dam inflows)

Glacier melt

Snow melt

Base flow

Total flow

Source: Mukhopadhyay and Khan (2015)

(Average 1969-2010)

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Indus vs Principal Rivers of the Himalayan Region

River Name Length (km) Mean

Discharge

(m³/s)

Glacier Melt in River

Flow (%)

Yangtze 6,300 34,000 >18.5

Brahmaputra 2,948 19,824 12.3

Ganges 2,057 18,691 9.1

Irrawaddy 2,170 13,565 Small

Mekong 4,600 11,048 6.6

Indus 2,900 5,533 >50

Salween 2,800 1,494 8.8

Yellow 5,464 1,365 1.3

Tarim 2,030 146 40.2

Source: ICIMOD

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RETREATING GLACIERS AROUND THE WORLD

33Honeycomb Glacier, (USA)

Muir Glacier and Inlet, Alaska.

Rhone glacier (Swiss)

Mid-1890s August 11,

2005

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Changes in Gangotri Glacier, Indian Himalaya

Kargel et al. (2011)

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MELTING OF THE ICE CAP OF MOUNT KILIMINJARO, TANZANIA

2000 1993

36

Bolivia's Chacaltaya Glacier (World’s Highest Ski Resort @ 17,785 ft): VanishedSource: WGMS (2016)

37Source: World Glacier Monitoring Service (2016); http://wgms.ch/latest-glacier-mass-balance-

data/

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GLACIERS’ RESPONSE IN THE KARAKORAM

(PAKISTAN)

39

Karakoram cryosphere under CCThe “Karakoram Anomaly”

(Stability/Enhancement of Glaciers)

According to a 2005 research study by Prof.

Kenneth Hewitt, In contrast to reduction in glacier

volume worldwide, most of the high elevation

glaciers of central Karakorum (Pakistan) are

either stable or gaining mass.

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Source Finding

Hewitt, 2005 Hewitt, 2011Copland et al., 2011Dirk Scherler et al. (2011)Gardelle et al., 2012Sarikaya et al., 2012Kääb et al., 2012Janes and Bush 2012Wiltshire 2013Minora et al. 2014 (deb. Thickness)Kääb et al., 2015 (K_P Anomaly)Paul, 2015Brahmbhatt et al., 2015Nathan et. al. (2017) in Nature_CC (summer vortex)

Stable/slightly advancing glaciers

Karakoram cryosphere under changing climateThe “Karakoram Anomaly”

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Possible factors causing the ‘Karakoram Anomaly’

- the debris cover thickness (Minora et al. 2014).

- Different weather regime in Karakoram, directly affected by

westerly weather pattern (Kapnick et al., 2014).

- Decrease in summer temperatures and an increase in

precipitation (Yao et al., 2012; Palazzi et al. (2013); Bocchiola

and Diolaiuti (2013).

42

• A very recent study (in Nature Climate Change) reveals growing

evidence that high mountain regions are warming faster than lower

elevations

• Impact: such warming can accelerate many environmental changes

such as glacial melt and vegetation change etc., much faster

• More and better data is urgently required to confirm this

“Elevation Dependent Warming”

(faster warming rates at higher elevations)

43

EDW in Pakistan?

PROJECTED IMPLICATIONS ON INDUS RIVER FLOWS DUE TO MELTING OF HKH GLACIERS

• Immerzeel et al. (2009) conclude “Even if the glaciers vanish completely, Indus river flows will only decrease by 15 % overall, and no change for the dry-season”

• Lutz et al. (2014) “..an increase in runoff at least until 2050 due to faster melt in the upper Indus Basin.”

• Lutz et al. (2016): “ increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges; high flows and total water availability decreases due to reduced precipitation in combination with increased evapo -transpiration. Higher spring flows due to earlier onset of snow and glacier melt;

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GLACIER RICH BASIN (GILGIT)

45

SNOW RICH BASIN

(KABUL)

Future flood events

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INDUS AT BESHAM QILA

Statistically non-significant trend

Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000Ja

n

Feb Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Dis

ch

arg

e (

Cu

me

cs

)

Base Runoff CCS Runoff

Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt

Vulnerability of UIBunder climate changeClimate Change Scenario

(CCS): ∆Temp: +3°C,

∆Glacier Area: - 50%

(Source: Hewitt 2003, Ashraf

et al. 2012)

GLOFs

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We still do not exactly know;

• Climate and its changes above 5000 m elevation

• Relationship of Temperature and Precipitation change with

elevation in the UIB

• Spatial (E-W and N-S) pattern of changes in climate, climate

extremes and extreme climate events

• The impact of above and changing water demands on water

distribution and management

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Research Challenges

49

“...climate change signals are detectable only with long and

continuous records, and at specific elevations..”

“the remote location, complex terrain and multi-country fabric of

high-mountain Asia have made it difficult to maintain longer-term

monitoring systems of the meteorological components that may

have influenced glacial change”.

Kapnick et al. 2014 in Nature Geoscience

(Long term) Data

50Source: WAPDA

51

Elevation ~4700 masl

Source: WAPDA

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Pakistan’ Policy Response

53

Climate Change Policy 2012 (Water Resources Adaptation)

Ensure early rehabilitation and remodelling of existing irrigation

infrastructure in the wake of climate change

Encourage introduction of more efficient irrigation techniques

Integrated water resources management

Ensure to safe guard Pakistan’s rights on trans-boundary water inflows

according to international norms and conventions

Protect HKH glaciers by declaring them as ‘protected areas’

Enhance national capacity by strengthening hydro-meteorological

networks and learning new RS/GIS techniques for glacier monitoring

Awareness raising

[Extracts from Pakistan’s ‘Climate Change Policy’ published by Ministry of Climate Change,

Govt. of Pakistan, in 2012]

54

Frame Work for Implementation of

Climate Change Policy (FICCP)(Pakistan’s Water Sector Adaptation Actions)

55

Innovative techniques

• More efficient irrigation techniques and Local rainwater harvesting measures

• Protecting groundwater through management and technical measures like

regulatory frameworks, water licensing, artificial recharge

• Wastewater recycling and its reuse

Adaptation Actions are based on following

major Strategies

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Water management

• Active participation of farmers in water management along with line

departments.

• Water allocations according to sectoral demands caused by climate change

• Distributing water among provinces as far as possible according to crop sowing

timing.

• Addressing sea water intrusion into Indus delta by allocating required water

flow downstream Kotri

• Effective planning and management of irrigation water.

…….Continued

57

Water Storage

• Enhancing country’s water storages capacities (new dams).

• Protecting and conserving water ‘catchment’ areas, and reservoirs to

reduce storage loss due to silting

• Harnessing the hill torrents’ potential.

• Contingency plans for short-term measures to adapt to water shortages to

mitigate drought.

…….Continued

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Glaciers and High Elevation CC

• Trans-boundary joint watershed management of catchment areas

• Declaring glaciated areas as ‘protected areas’ to protect HKH Glaciers.

• Strengthening the present hydrological network to monitor river flows and

flood warning systems

• Enhancing national capacities for monitoring temporal changes in glaciers,

snow cover, and meteorological parameters

…….Continued

59

Pakistan has

already adopted

SDGs as a national

development agenda

RECENT INITIATIVES

• TREE PLANTATION IN KP

• CLIMATE CHANGE ACT

• NATIONAL TREE PLANTATION DRIVE (10

BILLION TREES)

• RECHARGE PAKISTAN

• CLEAN AND GREEN

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• Climate change has serious implications for Pakistan’s water

resources sector due to its dependence on glaciers

• Govt. of Pakistan has started realizing and taking steps

• Scientists need improved observations, satellite-based remote

sensing and climate model simulations to gain a true picture of

warming in mountain regions, specially HKH.

• There is also a need for a strong effort to find, collate and

evaluate observational data that already exists.

• All this effort requires international agreement and collaboration –

and funding

Conclusions

Thank you

62