global climate change: impacts in chile peps meeting lima, perú. 16-17 march 2009 rené d. garreaud...
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Global Climate Change:Impacts in Chile
PEPS MeetingLima, Perú. 16-17 March 2009
René D. Garreaudwww.dgf.uchile.cl/rene
Departamento de GeofísicaUniversidad de Chile
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Outline
The ACT-19 Project (2006-2008)
Observed trends
Future regional climate
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ACT-19 Project. Climate Variability in Chile: ACT-19 Project. Climate Variability in Chile: Evaluation, interpretation and projectionsEvaluation, interpretation and projections2006-20082006-2008
Main scientific questions
• Is the chilean climate changing?
• Which are the characteristics of this change in the global context? Is there evidence of anthropogenic impacts?
• Which are the leading mechanism behind regional climate variability?
• What is the role of the ocean in driving atmospheric variability?
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ACT-19 Project. Climate Variability in Chile: ACT-19 Project. Climate Variability in Chile: Evaluation, interpretation and projectionsEvaluation, interpretation and projections
PIs
• René Garreaud (Dir)• Patricio Aceituno• Jorge Carrasco• José Rutllant• Samuel Hormazabal• Aldo Montecinos• Oscar Pizarro
CO-Pis
• Ricardo Muñoz• Humberto Fuenzalida• Dante Figueroa• Elias Ovalle• Juan Quintana• Mark Falvey (YR)• Maisa Rojas (YR)• Brad Barrett (PD)• Dave Rahn (PD)• Sebastian Vicuña (PD)• Rainer Schmitz
Students
• Fabian Gomez• Claudia Villarroel• Paola Uribe• Rosa Zamora• Martin Jacques• Ricardo Alcafuz• Enrique Garrido• Cristian Henríquez
• German Osses (Pre)• Ruben Maureira (Pre)• Michelle Muñoz (Pre)
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National Networking
FORECOSUACH
AMMRSM
DC, JV
JMP
VF
CEAZA-ULS FCFM-UCh
MF
RG
OP
GC, MO
CECS
JC
MR
RM
ACT19
VMo
Fac.Cs, UCH
JR
VMa
GV
PM
HF
AM
SHPA
JQ
PUCV
NS
Each line:A co-authored ISI Paper
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PRECIS-Altiplano25 km hor res.
PRECIS-CONAMA25 km hor. Res.
WRF-ChileCentral15 km hor.res.
Regional Climate Simulations during ACT-19
Scenarios:
BL (1960-1990)A2 (2070-200)B2 (2070-2100)
Lateral BC:HadAM
Surface BC:HadISST + HadCM3
All outpus available via DODs: www.dgf.uchile.cl/ACT19
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Outreach Brochure
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SAT Change: Geographical setting and global context
PD
OS
AM
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Glo
bal Tem
pera
ture
Ch
ang
e1
97
9-2
00
6
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Tem
pera
ture
Chan
ges
in C
en
tral C
hile
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Ocean cooling – land warming along north-central Chile.Pattern reverses farther south
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Cooling MBL / warming lower free troposphere increased lower tropospheric stability …. Sc?
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Annual cycle of SCu an inter-regional differences largely explained by low level stability: 700- sfc (Klein and Hartmann 1993)
700- sfc
Increase in cloudiness?Maybe…hard to test…requires a feedback
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How are the models doing?Not good but no so bad..
T/toff Central Chile
T/tcentral Andes
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Multimodel mean Regional warming 1970-2000 (SST*). Also shown in contours SLP* trend
Global mean: +0.2º/dec
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SubtropicalHigh Coastal
jet
SCu deck
SAMITCZAndes
Ocean cooling, Possible explanations….Key atmospheric features over the coastal SEP
Upwelling
SAT, SST Cold advection
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◄ 1-Point correlation map SST off central Chile, SST, SLP, sfc. winds. Interannual variability only.
Observed ERSST and SLP changes, 1979-2005. SLP from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, supported by ins-situ observations. ►
At interannual time scales, cooling off central Chile associated with spin-up of SEP anticyclone (increased cold advection, upwelling and heat fluxes). The same mechanism appears to operate in last decades to produce trends.
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◄ Observed ERSST and SLP changes, 1979-2005. SLP from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.
The same mechanism appears to operate in the models during the last decades to produce trends. Thus, observed change is at least partially due to increased GHG (the only common ingredient in GCMs)
Multimodel mean SST* and SLP tendency, 1970-2000 ►
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TENDENCIA DE LA PRECIPITACION ANUAL - 1950-2000
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
1503
0
32
33
34
35
37
38
39
40
42
45
53
Latitud Sur
mm
/10
añ
os
Ref.: Quintana, 2004
• Semiarid climate• MAP 30-500 mm• (IA)/MAP 0.3 – 0.5• Strong ENSO Impact• No significant trend
Precipitation Changes….warming, drying south
• Rainy climate• MAP 1000-3000 mm• (IA)/MAP 0.1• Weak ENSO Impact• Significant drying trend
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Central Chile (30-35ºS)
Southern Chile (38º-41ºS)
Year
Norm
aliz
ed
rain
fall
Norm
aliz
ed
rain
fall
Evolu
ción d
e las
Pre
cip
itaci
on
es
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Multimodel average surface airwarming A2-BL (future-present)
Warming everywhere but with different magnitudeOcean warming less than land warming, especially on EBUS!
IPCC 2007
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Multimodel average SLP difference betweenA2 (2070-2100) and BL (1970-2000)
Strengthening of the poleward flank of subtropical anticyclones and poleward shift of the midlatitude storm track is very consistent among GCMs
Annual mean
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Multimodel average SLP and sfc wind difference betweenA2 (2070-2100) and BL (1970-2000)
Over open ocean v in geostrophic balance with SLP.Near the coast v more controlled by along-coast SLP
Annual mean
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Model:
• PRECIS – UK
Single domain
• Horiz. grid spacing. 25 km
• 19 vertical levels
• Lateral BC: HadAM every 6h
• Sfc. BC: HadISST1 + Linear trend
Simulations
• 1961-1990 Baseline
• 2071-2100 SRES A2 y B2
• 30 years @ 3 min 4 months per
simulation in fast PC
Regional Simulations of the Future
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PRECIS-DGF Tfuturo - Tpresente
Futuro: 2071-2100 / Presente: 1960-1990
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PRECIS-DGF Rfuturo / Rpresente
Futuro: 2071-2100 / Presente: 2071-2100
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PRECIS Results
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PRECIS Results
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Conclusions
• Last 30 years in Chile characterized by continental warming and surface ocean cooling (±0.3º/decade). Natural (IPV) or anthropogenic?
• Such pattern is partially detected by CMIP3 IPCC4 global simulations of the 20th century…suggesting an anthropogenic forcing
• Future trends quite similar to the observed in the last 30 years: intensification and poleward extent of the SEP subtropical anticyclone, enhanced southerly winds, ocean cooling.
• It is time now to move into environmental prediction!