global climate change: economics, science and policydspace.mit.edu/.../0/lect1.pdf · 2019. 9....
TRANSCRIPT
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15.023 - 12.848 - ESD.128Global Climate Change:
Economics, Science and Policy• Introductions
– Faculty, teaching assistants, administration– The class (SSM, ESD, EAPS, other?)
• Why climate . . . & the challenge• Content & materials• Course details• How to think about the problem
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Why Climate?• The scale of potential change
• The vulnerability of particular societies, sectors, and ecosystems
• The momentum of the economic system producing greenhouse gases– Importance policy for many industries
• The intellectual and political challenge
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THE CONFLICT BETWEEN
ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
Climate ChangeUrban Air Pollution
Water QualityLand Degradation
Ecosystem DisruptionWaste Disposal
EnergyFood
TransportationManufacturing
Urban DevelopmentPopulation Growth
Potable WaterHuman Health
THE CLIMATE ISSUEEXEMPLIFIES THE
CHALLEGE FORSUSTAINING A
HABITABLE EARTH
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TEMPERATURECHANGE IN THEINDUSTRIALAGE
1998 & 2005 are the WARMEST
YEARS
ARCTIC is WARMING MUCH
FASTERthan the GLOBAL
AVERAGE
NASA GISS, 2006
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STABILITY OF WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET
DEPLETION OF ARCTIC SUMMER
SEA ICE
September 2003September 1979
STABILITY OF ARCTIC TUNDRA &
PERMAFROST
VULNERABLE SYSTEMS AT
HIGH LATITUDES
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Why Climate?• The scale of potential change
• The vulnerability of particular societies, sectors, and ecosystems
• The momentum of the economic system producing greenhouse gases– Importance of policy for many industries
• The intellectual and political challenge
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The Intellectual and Political Challenge
• Many natural/social/behavioral sciences• Complexity of the human-climate system• A many-nation “commons” problem• Long time horizons & irreversible effects• Uncertainty (but possible learning)• Intersection with other issues
– North-South equity concerns– Energy, transport, land use, taxes, trade
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Course Content• Origin and history of the course
– MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
– Materials– “Toy” integrated system model
• Homework sets & team project• Classroom style, and preparation• Structure of the class sessions
– Mondays vs. Wednesdays– Science . . . economics . . . politics
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Course OrganizationBackground/science2/12 Institutions
2/19
2/26Natural Science
Social Science/policy3/5
3/12 Integration3/19
3/26 Holiday4/2
4/9
4/23
4/305/7
5/14
Background/economics
4/16 Background/uncertainty
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Materials• Readings
– Packet to purchase, ($30)• Today . . . and Monday
– Hand-outs (Joint Program reports & other)– Material on the web (mit.edu/globalchange)– Keep an eye on the news!
• Computer needs– “Toy” IGSM in the Sloan Computer Lab– Excel or other worksheet program
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Other Details• Credits: 3-0-6• Prerequisites . . . & auditors• Class schedule
– Mon.: 3:00 to 5:00– Wed.: 3:00 to 4:00 (3:00 to 5:00 on May 12)– WILL meet on Wed., March 21 (Sloan trips)
• Grading• Questions?
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HOW HAVE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES CHANGEDOVER THE PAST CENTURY (1906-2005), AND WHY?
Black lines:observed changes. Blue bands: range for 19 model simulations using natural forcings. Red bands: range for 51 model simulations using natural and human forcings.
REF: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ,Fourth Assessment, Feb. 2, 2007
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Year Year
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Europe
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-1.01940 1980
1900 20201940 1980
1900 20201940 1980
1900 20201940 1980
1900 20201940 19801900 20201940 1980
1900 20201940 19801900 20201940 19801900 20201940 1980
Figure by MIT OCW, based on REF: Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change.
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NEW WHEELlower oddsof EXTREMES
What would we buy with STABILIZATION
of CO2 at 550 ppm?
Compared withNO POLICY
HOW CAN WE EXPRESS THE VALUE OF ACLIMATE POLICY UNDER UNCERTAINTY?