Global Climate Change: Detection and Attribution

Finish Idealized Global Circulation Model and Global ClimatesIs the Current Climate Changing? If so, on what evidence?Why?

Exam I on Feb 4! Review Sheet is Posted.

Where the Hell is Matt?http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlfKdbWwruY

June–July ITCZ

Figure 6.11

Seasonal Patterns

Location of the sun’s noon-time vertical rays (i.e., where the sun is directly overhead) helps to control the position of the ITCZ

Northern Hemisphere summer, ITCZ and all of the wind and pressure belts migrate to the north

North Hemisphere winter, ITCZ and all of the wind and pressure belts migrate to the south

Modified Köppen System

Figure 8-4

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Global Climate Regions

Figure 2.13

Climograph

Climographs

Figure 8-6

Climate Change Detection

Is the Earth’s Current Climate Changing?

If so, what evidence can you provide?

(We will discuss the question of attribution in a bit.)

Figure 10.30

YES!

YES!

Figure SPM.1bObserved change in surface temperature 1901-2012

All Figures © IPCC 2013

Figure SPM.2Observed change in annual precipitation over land

All Figures © IPCC 2013

Figure SPM.3Multiple observed indicators of a changing global climate

All Figures © IPCC 2013

Observed Variations in the Cryosphere

Linear Trend of Annual Temperatures

Observed Variations in the Cryosphere

Chasing Ice

• http://www.chasingice.com/

Climate Change AttributionWhy is the climate changing?

What are some Anthropogenic Influences on Climate?

What are some Anthropogenic Influences on Climate?

Greenhouse gases

Aerosols – suspended particulates

Land use/land cover change

A rectangular piece of coal in a wagon is on display in the middle of Pacific Avenue In Tacoma before the arrival of President Harrison in May, 1891.

Life Magazine (1962)

Natural Forcings?

Solar Irradiance

Volcanoes

Changes in Oceanic and Atmospheric Circulation

No denying that the anthropogenic

warming is playing a role:

Question is how much?