Peak Oil, Climate Change,and

Energy Alternatives

Professor Leonard RodbergDepartment of Urban Studies

Office Powdermaker Rm 250A Email leonard.rodberg@qc.cuny.edu

Telephone 718-997-5134

Global Climate Change and Public Policy

US Oil Production and Imports

2004

The Time Course of Production of any Non-renewal Resource according to M. King Hubbert

It Gets Harder and Harder to Find Oil

Hubbert Curve for US Oil Production - 1956

US Oil Production and Imports

2004

The Paper that Started It All…

*Publication No. 95, Shell Development Company, Exploration and Production Research Division, Houston, Texas

**Chief Consultant (General Geology).

World Energy Use by Fuel

Hubbert Curve for World Oil Production - 1956

The Decline of New Oil Discoveries

Oil Production Worldwide

The Optimists’ View

Taking the Long View: The History of the Human Race

according to M. King Hubbert

It’s Getting Warmer

The Long View

CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations

- far exceed pre-industrial values- increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities

Relatively little variation beforethe industrial era

Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change

And the Sea Level is Rising

Greenhouse Effect

What are the Greenhouse Gases?• Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

• Methane (CH4)

Principal Source: Burning of Fossil Fuels: Oil, natural gas/methane, coal Hydrocarbons (CnHm)) + Oxygen (O2) CO2 + H2O

Also Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)

The Concentration of CO2 is Growing

GHG Trends 1970-2004

Radiative Forcing Components

Carbon, and Fossil Fuels, are the Culprit

At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include:

– Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice,

– Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns

– and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones

Direct Observation of Recent Climate Change

Declining Sea Ice

http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/facts_and_figures/impacts/lateseaice.cfm

Impacts Worldwide

GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning GLOBAL WARMING: Early Warning SignsSigns

Fingerprints and HarbingersHeat waves and periods of unusually warm weather

Sea level rise and coastal flooding

Glaciers melting

Arctic and Antarctic warming

Spreading disease

Earlier spring arrival

Plant and animal range shifts and population declines

Coral reef bleaching

Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding

Droughts and fires

www.climatehotmap.org

Natural gas causes more global warming but less air pollution mortality than coal over 150 years due to less sulfate (a cooling agent) and more methane (a warming agent) from natural gas than coal. Coal causes higher mortality.

50-70 times more CO2 and air pollution per kWh

than windHydrofracking causes land and water supply degradation

Why Not Natural Gas?

9-25 times more pollution per kWh than wind from mining & refining uranium, using fossil fuels for electricity during the 11-19 years to permit (6-10 y) and construct (4-9 y) nuclear plant compared with 2-5 years for a wind or solar farm

Risk of meltdown (1.5% of all nuclear reactors to date have melted)

Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation

Unresolved waste issues

Why Not Nuclear?

Corn and cellulosic E85 cause same or higher air pollution as gasoline

-- Corn E85: 90-200% of CO2 emissions of

gasoline-- Cellulosic E85: 50-150% of CO2

emissions of gasoline

Wind: <1% of CO2 emissions as gasoline

Enormous land use and water requirements

Why Not Ethanol?

U.S. Carbon Stabilization via Wedges

Source: Lashof and Hawkins, NRDC, in Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p. 57

Wind ElectricityWind Electricity

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

One million 2-MW windmills displacing coal power.

Today: 50,000 MW (1/40)

Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine located in Grevenbroich, Germany

(Danish Wind Industry Association)

Wind Electricity

Photovoltaic Power

ElectricityElectricityNuclearNuclear

Site: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since 1972-73.Credit: Dominion.

A revised goal: retrievable storage Natural-U plants (no enrichment), no reprocessingUniversal rules and international governance

Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for another half wedge.

Nuclear ElectricityEffort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

700 GW (twice current capacity) displacing coal power.

Biofuels

Efficient Use of ElectricityEfficient Use of Electricity

lightingmotors cogeneration

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

.25% reduction in expected 2055 electricity use in commercial and residential buildings

Target commercial and multifamily buildings.

Efficient Use of Electricity

Efficient Use of FuelEfficient Use of Fuel

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

Note: 1 car driven 10,000 miles at 30 mpg emits 1 ton of carbon.

2 billion cars driven 10,000 miles per year at 60 mpg instead of 30 mpg.

2 billion cars driven, at 30 mpg, 5,000 instead of 10,000 miles per year.

Property-tax systems that reinvigorate cities and discourage sprawl

Efficient Use of Fuel

Carbon StorageCarbon Storage

Graphic courtesy of Statoil ASA Graphic courtesy of David Hawkins

Sleipner project, offshore Norway

Carbon Storage

Effort needed by 2055 for 1 wedge:

3500 Sleipners @1 MtCO2/yr

100 x U.S. CO2 injection rate for EOR

A flow of CO2 into the Earth equal to the flow of oil out of the Earth today

Reforestation and Land Conservation

NYC Energy Profile 1979

Saving Energy in NYC

Source: L. Rodberg and G. Stokes, The Village Voice, Feb. 18, 1980

PlaNYC Mitigation Measures

PlaNYC Wedges

Planning for a Major Hurricane

Both Adaptation and Mitigation:Mayor’s PlaNYC Adapts to Some

Inevitable Climate Change

• Protect our city’s vital infrastructure

• Work with vulnerable neighborhoods to develop site-specific strategies

• Launch a citywide strategic planning process for climate change adaptation