global change institute - craig rispin keynote 1 nov '12
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Global Change Institute - Craig Rispin Keynote 1 Nov '12TRANSCRIPT
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Know First • Be First • Profit First
Craig RispinBusiness Futurist & Innovation Expert
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Karl Fisch - TheFischBowl.blogspot.com
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Discuss with a Partner:
What Did You Find Most Surprising in the Video
“Did You Know”?
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Education Re-Engineering
Global Mobility
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Un-Bell Curve
OutrageousOutsourcing
MarketingMegatrend
Virtual Business
InnovationImperative
Speed & Size
Cloud Computing
CoITRobots Rise
Coworking
UnbreakableTech
Mobile Madness
Free Agency
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People
Business Technology
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SciencesWork/LifeShift
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Age Gap
Education Re-Engineering
Global Mobility
Free Agency
End of Retirement
Un-Bell Curve
OutrageousOutsourcing
MarketingMegatrend
Virtual Business
InnovationImperative
Speed & Size
Cloud Computing
CoITRobots Rise
Coworking
UnbreakableTech
Mobile Madness
http://www.flickr.com/photos/43533334@N07/5153726732
Your mobile phone has
all of NASA in 1969. more computing power than
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How Big is Mobile Today?
7B People in the World
6B Mobile Subscribers
1B 3G/4G Subscribers
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Despite Tremendous Ramp So Far, Smartphone User Adoption Has Huge Upside
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Smartphone Mobile Phone
Glo
bal S
ubsc
ript
ions
(MM
)
Global Smartphone vs. Mobile Phone Subscriptions, Q4:11
Source: Mobile phone subscriptions per Informa (as of Q4:11), Smartphone subscriptions estimate based on Morgan Stanley Research’s estimated smartphone user as % of total mobile user at the end of 2011 (16%).
Note: While there are 1B global 3G subscribers as of Q4:11, not all of them were smartphone users. One user may have multiple mobile subscriptions, therefore actual user #s may be lower than subscriber #s.
953MM Smartphone
Subscriptions
6.1B Mobile Phone Subscriptions
11
20
40
60
80
100
120
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Su
bsc
rib
ers
(MM
)
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
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iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape UsersFirst 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~65MM+ netbooks have shipped in first 11 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
Data as of CQ3:10.
Desktop Internet
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-mode
Launched 6/99
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouch + iPad
Launched 6/07
~120MM+
~32MM
~9MM
Desktop Internet
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
~27MM
Apple iPhone + iTouch + iPad Ramp – The Likes of Which We Haven’t Seen Before
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20
40
60
80
100
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Sub
scri
bers
(MM
)
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
7
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape UsersFirst 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
Desktop Internet
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-mode
Launched 6/99
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouch
Launched 6/07
~85MM
~31MM
~8MM
Desktop Internet
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
~18MM
Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did – Apple Leading Charge
380M
Up
20
40
60
80
100
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19
Quarters Since Launch
Sub
scri
bers
(MM
)
iPhone + iTouch NTT docomo i-mode AOL Netscape
7
iPhone + iTouch vs. NTT docomo i-mode vs. AOL vs. Netscape UsersFirst 20 Quarters Since Launch
Note: *AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Morgan Stanley Research estimates ~50MM netbooks have shipped in first 10 quarters since launch (10/07). Source: Company Reports , Morgan Stanley Research.
Desktop Internet
AOL*
v 2.0 Launched 9/94
Mobile Internet
NTT docomo i-mode
Launched 6/99
Mobile Internet
iPhone + iTouch
Launched 6/07
~85MM
~31MM
~8MM
Desktop Internet
Netscape*
Launched 12/94
~18MM
Mobile Internet Ramping Faster than Desktop Internet Did – Apple Leading Charge
468M
Up
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Glo
bal U
nit S
hipm
ents
(000
)
Quarters After Launch
iPad iPhone iPod
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Glo
bal U
nit S
hipm
ents
(000
)
Quarters After Launch
iPad iPhone iPod
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Glo
bal U
nit S
hipm
ents
(000
)
Quarters After Launch
iPad iPhone iPod
First 8 Quarters Cumulative Unit Shipments, iPod vs. iPhone vs. iPad
Source: Apple, as of CQ1:12 (8 quarters post iPad launch).
iPods Changed Media Industry iPhones Ramped Even Faster iPad Growth (3x iPhone) Leaves “Siblings” in Dust
9
Money
Access
Body
Engines
Metering
Control
Security
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People
Business Technology
Life
SciencesWork/LifeShift
Glo
ba
lised
Ac
ce
lera
tion
Age Gap
Education Re-Engineering
Global Mobility
Free Agency
End of Retirement
Un-Bell Curve
OutrageousOutsourcing
MarketingMegatrend
Virtual Business
InnovationImperative
Speed & Size
Cloud Computing
CoITRobots Rise
Coworking
UnbreakableTech
Mobile Madness
Up
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“Cloud Computing isn’t
really about technology - it’s
really about thinking of IT in a whole new way.”
Source: Cisco
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People
Business Technology
Life
SciencesWork/LifeShift
Glo
ba
lised
Ac
ce
lera
tion
Age Gap
Education Re-Engineering
Global Mobility
Free Agency
End of Retirement
Un-Bell Curve
OutrageousOutsourcing
MarketingMegatrend
Virtual Business
InnovationImperative
Speed & Size
Cloud Computing
CoITRobots Rise
Coworking
UnbreakableTech
Mobile Madness
Up
Speed & Size
Cray-1 US$8 million80 MegaFLOPS
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Sony PlayStation 3
US$400
218 GigaFLOPS
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Sony PlayStation 3
US$400
218 GigaFLOPS
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The $100 PC - nComputing.com
enterprisepowerful computingfor powerful companies
small & medium businesswhatever the size of yourbusiness we have a solution
educationinvest in solutions that givemore tools to your students
governmentget things running smoothlywith our computing power
NComputing is the fastest growing desktop virtualization company in theworld with over 20 million daily users in 140 countries. The company'saward-winning, patented technology lowers desktop computing costs,improves manageability, and reduces both energy consumption and e-waste.It is the perfect solution for leveraging the power and potential of PCs andcloud computing.
Looking for an all-inclusive, pre-tested and easy to deploy solution that willgive you the ability to virtualize your budget? With NComputing’s new In aBox solutions you are getting just that. Find out how you can reducemaintenance and support costs by 75%, reduce power and coolingrequirements by 90% and be a leader in your community with Greencomputing.
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The $100 PC - nComputing.com
enterprisepowerful computingfor powerful companies
small & medium businesswhatever the size of yourbusiness we have a solution
educationinvest in solutions that givemore tools to your students
governmentget things running smoothlywith our computing power
NComputing is the fastest growing desktop virtualization company in theworld with over 20 million daily users in 140 countries. The company'saward-winning, patented technology lowers desktop computing costs,improves manageability, and reduces both energy consumption and e-waste.It is the perfect solution for leveraging the power and potential of PCs andcloud computing.
Looking for an all-inclusive, pre-tested and easy to deploy solution that willgive you the ability to virtualize your budget? With NComputing’s new In aBox solutions you are getting just that. Find out how you can reducemaintenance and support costs by 75%, reduce power and coolingrequirements by 90% and be a leader in your community with Greencomputing.
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Edible Chip - Proteus Biomedical
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