(some activities in 2015/2016) Global carbon project

GlobalCarbonProject.org

TheGlobalCarbonProject•  TheGlobalCarbonProject(GCP)was

establishedin2001inrecogni;onofthelargescien;ficchallengesandcri;calnatureofthecarboncycleforEarth'ssustainability.

•  GCPformsapartoftheinterna;onalresearchprogrammesbecomingpartofFutureEarth

•  Thescien;ficgoaloftheprojectistodevelopacompletepictureoftheglobalcarboncycle,includingbothitsbiophysicalandhumandimensionstogetherwiththeinterac;onsandfeedbacksbetweenthem.

TheGlobalCarbonProject

Pa1ernsandVariability:Whatarethecurrentgeographicalandtemporaldistribu;onsofthemajorpoolsandfluxesintheglobalcarboncycle?ProcessesandInterac9ons:Whatarethecontrolandfeedbackmechanisms-bothanthropogenicandnon-anthropogenic-thatdeterminethedynamicsofthecarboncycle?CarbonManagement:Whatarethedynamicsofthecarbon-climate-humansystemintothefuture,andwhatpointsofinterven;onandwindowsofopportunityexistforhumansocie;estomanagethissystem?

Integratedassessmentworld

GCP

TheglobalcarbonprojectZhuZ,etal(2016)GreeningtheEarthanditsDrivers.NatureClimateChange,onlinepublica;on25April2016.DOI:10.1038/nclimate3004TianH,etal.(2016)Theterrestrialbiosphereasanetsourceofgreenhousegasestotheatmosphere.Nature531:525-228.DOI:10.1038/nature16946.ThompsonRL,etal.(2016)Top–downassessmentoftheAsiancarbonbudgetsincethemid1990s.NatureCommunica9ons7:10724.DOI:10.1038/ncomms10724.JacksonRB,(2016).Reachingpeakemissions.NatureClimateChange6:7-10.Publishedonline07December2015.DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE2892.SmithP,.(2016)Biophysicalandeconomiclimitstonega;veCO2emissions.NatureClimateChange6:42–50.Publishedonline07December2015.DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE2870LeQuéréC,(2015)GlobalCarbonBudget2015.EarthSystemScienceData7:349-396.DOI:10.5194/essd-7-349-2015SitchS(2015)RecenttrendsanddriversofregionalsourcesandsinksofcarbonDioxide.Biogeosciences12:653–679.DOI:10.5194/bg-12-653-2015LeQuéréC,(2015)GlobalCarbonBudget2014.EarthSystemScienceData,DOI:10.5194/essd–7–47–2015.RaupachMR,(2014)Sharingaquotaoncumula;vecarbonemissions.NatureClimateChange4:873–879.DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE2384.FussS,(2014)BehngonNega;veEmissions.NatureClimateChange4:850–853.FriedlingsteinP,etal(2014)PersistentgrowthofCO2emissionsandimplica;onsforreachingclimatetargets.NatureGeoScience7:709–715.CiaisP,A.J.etal..(2014)Currentsystema;ccarbon-climateobserva;onsandtheneedforimplemen;ngapolicy-relevantcarbonobservingsystem.Biogeosciences11:3547–602.

Carbon Budget: Trends in Emissions and Sinks

GCP2015;LeQuereetal.2015,ESDD

Data: GCP

Globalemissionsfromfossilfuelandindustry:35.9±1.8GtCO2in2014,60%over1990Projec;onfor2015:35.7±1.8GtCO2,59%over1990

Es;matesfor2012,2013,2014,and2015arepreliminarySource:CDIAC;LeQuéréetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

Uncertaintyis±5%foronestandarddevia;on(IPCC“likely”range)

Emissionsfromfossilfueluseandindustry

Carbonintensityofeconomicac;vity-global

Financialcriseshavehadliolelas;ngeffectonemissionsgrowthGlobalcarbonintensityhasreturnedtoaphaseofimprovementaqerstallingforsomeyears

Economicac;vityismeasuredinPurchasingPowerParitySource:CDIAC;LeQuéréetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

Globalcarbonbudget

Thecarbonsourcesfromfossilfuels,industry,andlandusechangeemissionsarebalancedbytheatmosphereandcarbonsinksonlandandintheocean

Source:CDIAC;NOAA-ESRL;Houghtonetal2012;Giglioetal2013;Joosetal2013;Kha;walaetal2013;LeQuéréetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 14

−40

−30

−20

−10

0

10

20

30

40

CO

¿ flu

x (G

t CO

¿/yr

)

Global Carbon Project

Data: CDIAC/NOAA−ESRL/GCP/Joos et al 2013/Khatiwala et al 2013

Ocean sink

Atmosphere

Land sink

Land−use change

Fossil fuelsand industry

Globalcarbonbudget

Thecarbonsourcesfromfossilfuels,industry,andlandusechangeemissionsarebalancedbytheatmosphereandcarbonsinksonlandandintheocean

Source:CDIAC;NOAA-ESRL;Houghtonetal2012;Giglioetal2013;Joosetal2013;Kha;walaetal2013;LeQuéréetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 14

−40

−30

−20

−10

0

10

20

30

40

CO

¿ flu

x (G

t CO

¿/yr

)

Global Carbon Project

Data: CDIAC/NOAA−ESRL/GCP/Joos et al 2013/Khatiwala et al 2013

Ocean sink

Atmosphere

Land sink

Land−use change

Fossil fuelsand industry

Topfossilfuelemioers

Thetopfouremioersin2014covered59%ofglobalemissionsChina(27%),UnitedStates(15%),EU28(10%),India(7%)

Bunkerfuelsareusedforinterna;onaltransportis3.0%ofglobalemissionsSta;s;caldifferencesarebetweentheglobales;matesandsumofna;onaltotalsis1.1%ofglobalemissions

Source:CDIAC;LeQuéréetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

Consump;on-basedemissionsarecalculatedbyadjus;ngthestandardproduc;on-basedemissionstoaccountforinterna;onaltrade

Source:LeQuéréetal2015;Petersetal2011;GlobalCarbonProject2015

Atlas 1: Engagement with General Public

Atlas 2: Engagement with Policy Actors (Data Access, Plotting)

Atlas 3: Engagement with Research Community

Emissionsfromfossilfueluseandindustry

GlobalCO2emissionsfromfossilfueluseandindustry(leqaxis)andemissionsperuniteconomicac;vity(rightaxis).Redsymbolsareprojec;onsfor2015

GDP:GrossDomes;cProductusingPurchasingPowerParitySource:Jacksonetal2015a;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

Uncertaintyis±5%foronestandarddevia;on(IPCC“likely”range)

ChangeinCO2emissionsfromfossil-fueluseandindustry

Top:AnnualchangeinglobalCO2emissionsrela;veto2011Booom:AnnualfortheEU,US,China,India,andtherestoftheworld

Themostrecentprojectedchangeinemissionsisfrom~35.9CO2(9.8GtC)in2014to~35.7GtCO2(9.7GtC)in2015.Thefilledsymbolsfor2015denoteprojec;ons.

Source:Jacksonetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

Energyconsump;onbyenergytype-China

Energyconsump;onbyfuelsourcefrom2000to2014,withgrowthratesindicatedforthemorerecentperiodof2010to2014forChina

Source:BP2015;Jacksonetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

China India

Based on Kirschke et al. 2013, Nature Geoscience

Global Methane Budget (2nd budget is nearing completion)

Just Underway: Global Nitrous Oxide Budget

Insertpaperheader

ScenariosincludingNega;veEmissionTechnologies

ScenariosincludingNega;veEmissionTechnologiesforeachscenariocategory(colours),netlandusechangefluxesareincluded

ScenarioswithNega;veEmissionsTechnologiesfromtheAMPEREandLIMITSmodellingcomparisonexercises(colours),withallotherscenariosfromtheIPCCAR5databaseshowningrey

Source:Smithetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

DifferentNega;veEmissionTechnologies

Schema;crepresenta;onofcarbonflowsamongatmospheric,land,oceanandgeologicalreservoirsfordifferenttechnologies

Source:Smithetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

Impact/limitsummaryforNega;veEmissionTechnologies

TheimpactsandinvestmentrequirementsofNega;veEmissionsTechnologiestolimitwarmingto2°C

Waterrequirementisshownaswaterdroplets,withquan;;esinkm3peryear.Allvaluesarefortheyear2100exceptrela;vecosts,whicharefor2050

Source:Smithetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

~3%ofthefreshwatercurrentlyappropriatedforhumanuse

380–700Mha138billion

GlobalNega;veEmissionTechnologiescapacity

Factorspoten;allyenhancingorlimi;ngtheglobalcapacityforNega;veEmissionTechnologies

Source:Smithetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

Theremainingcarbonquotafor66%chance<2°C

Thetotalremainingemissionsfrom2014tokeepglobalaveragetemperaturebelow2°C(900GtCO2)willbeusedinaround20yearsatcurrentemissionrates

Grey:Totalquotafor2°C.Green:Removedfromquota.Blue:remainingquota.

Withprojected2015emissions,thisremainingquotadropsto865GtCO2Source:Petersetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

Theemissionpledges(INDCs)ofthetop-4emioers

Equity:Remainingquotasharedbycurrentpopula;on.Iner;a:Theremainingquotasharedbycurrentemissions.Source:Petersetal2015;GlobalCarbonBudget2015

Theemissionpledgescomparedtodifferentwaysofsharingtheremaining2°Cquota

Mee;ngStanford2016

Specificaoen;ontonega;veemissionsand1.5degCscenarios

What do 1.5°C scenarios look like? (How do they differ from 2°C?)

Rogelj et al (2015) NCC

Electricity emissions

•  Maintainandgrowdata-drivenworkon:•  Contemporarymul;-GHGBudgets•  Peakemissionsandpermissiblebudgetstoclimatestabiliza;on.

•  Sustainabledeploymentofcarbon-mi;ga;onop;ons,includingnega;veemissiontechnologies.

•  DevelopmentofKnowledgeAc;onNetworksofFutureEarth:–  Primarily,provideleadershipforthe“Decarboniza;on”KAN.–  Secondarily,contributetootherKANs:nexuswater-food-energy,

urbaniza;on,oceans,others.

Future

Acknowledgements

Theworkpresentedherehasbeenpossiblethankstotheenormousobserva;onalandmodelingeffortsofmanyins;tu;onsandnetworks,someofwhicharelistedbelow:

AtmosphericCO2datasetsNOAA/ESRL(Dlugokenckyetal.2015)Scripps(Keelingetal.1976)FossilFuelsandIndustryCDIAC(Bodenetal.2015)USGS,2015UNFCCC,2015BP,2015Consump9onEmissionPetersetal.2011Land-UseChangeHoughtonetal.2012vanderWerfetal.2010

AtmosphericinversionsCarbonTracker(Petersetal.2010)JenaCarboScope(Rödenbecketal.2003)MACC(Chevallieretal.2005)LandmodelsCLM4-5BGC|ISAM|JSBACH|JULES|LPJ-GUESS|LPJ|LPJmL|OCNv1.r240|ORCHIDEE|VEGAS|VISITOceanmodelsNEMO-PlankTOM5|NEMO-PISCES(IPSL)|CCSM-BEC|MICOM-HAMMOC|MPIOM-HAMMOC|NEMO-PISCES(CNRM)|CSIRO|MITgem-REcoM2SOCATSOCATv3(Bakkeretal.2014,2015)OceanDataproductsJenaCarboScope(Rödenbecketal.2014)Landschützeretal.2015

FullreferencesprovidedinLeQuéréetal2015;Jacksonetal.2015