global basics - presentation · 2008-05-23 · • global beauty products company with a range of...
TRANSCRIPT
Paris, le 31 janvier 2008
M&G Global Basics Fund – The world is changing, so is Global Basics…Graham French & Ben Constable Maxwell
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M&G Investments - Gestion actions3 équipes complémentaires
Équipe actions internationales
Équipe actions UK
Équipe actions européennes
Soutenues par l’équipe Portfolio Stratégie & Risk
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M&G Investments - Gestion actionsÉquipe actions internationales
Asie Amérique
Value
M&G Technology Fund(Innovation)
Growth
Europe
M&G International Growth(Blue Chips)
M&G Global Basics(Changements externes)
M&G Global Leaders(Changements internes)
M&G Asia M&G American
Des fonds globaux spécialisés en terme de stylesLeurs meilleures idées déclinées dans des fonds régionaux
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M&G Global BasicsFund manager: Graham French
• 19 years at M&G
• Manager of the M&G Global Basics Fund since launch in November 2000
• Manages more than £6bn across three funds:
– M&G Global Basics Fund
– M&G Managed Growth Fund
– Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund
*Source: M&G, fund sizes as at 31 December 2007
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M&G Global Basics Fund
• Inception: 17 November 2000
• Fund manager: Graham French (since launch)
• Fund size: €4,098 million
• Performance: Number one fund in sector since launch
• S&P Fund rating: AA
• Morningstar rating:
Source: Morningstar German database as at 31 December 2007, ratings and fund size as at 30 November 2007
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A dramatically changing world…
“Economic freedom has unleashed billionsof people to pursue the imperatives of their
nature – to work toward better lives for themselves and their families.”
Alan Greenspan, former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve
“The Age of Turbulence - Adventures in a New World” 2007
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M&G Global Basics Fund
Housing / urbanisationHousing / urbanisation
Economic development
Time
Basic infrastructureBasic infrastructure
Branded goodsBranded goods
Consumer goodsConsumer goods
Travel and transportTravel and transport
Raw materialsRaw materials
Food / agricultureFood / agriculture
EnvironmentEnvironmentLifestyleLifestyle
The 20-year plan - moving up the ‘Global Basics’ curve
2000
2020
2008
Identifying long-term shifts in the global economy
M&G Global Basics launched
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“The world is due to consume more metals and minerals over the next 25 years than in
the whole of its previous history”
Chip Goodyear, ex-CEO BHP Billiton
Dublin, May 2007
Demand for commodities will be a lasting phenomenon
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The potential of the emerging consumer
China has 150 cities with a populationof over 1m people… compared toEurope with 36 and the US with 9
Only 4% of the Chinese urban population has travelled
overseas
Car sales in china in 2006 were 10 times those of a
decade before
Only 6% of the Indonesian population has eaten
chocolate
Per capita energy usage in China is 12 times less than
in the United States
Indians drink an average of 1.5 litres of wine per year… the
French drink 60 litres
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Food & agriculture
China has 150 cities with a population of over 1m people…
compared to Europe with36 and the US with 9
Chaoda Modern Agriculture
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Lifestyle trends
Indians drink an average of 1.5 litres of wine per year… the
French drink 60 litres
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Transport & environment
Car sales in china in 2006 were 10 times those of a
decade before
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Energy
Per capita energy usage in China is 12 times less than
in the United States
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Travel
Only 4% of the Chinese urban population has
travelled overseas
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What are we buying and selling on the fund?
Significant purchases
Source: M&G as at 31 December 2007
Constellation BrandsSantos Sherritt InternationalSymriseFraser & NeaveLindeEADS AnsellNorsk Hydro Aracruz CeluloseAmcol International Scotts Miracle GroImerysSchnitzer SteelFuturis
Significant sales
Rio TintoChevronCSRAgriumK+S Coles Impala Platinum Groupe DanoneHolcimCabot Siemens Rolls-RoyceBG Group Sibir Energy
Purchases and sales in 2007
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M&A activity since launch
Economic development
Time
M&G Global Basics Fund
Activity is increasingly occurring further up the curve
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What can derail this scenario?
Money supply Circulation
At the macroeconomic level
Investment opportunities
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Performance and portfolio analysis
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PerformanceFrench database
Number 1 fund out of 177 in sector since launch
3 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Since% % % (pa) %(pa) inception %*
M&G Global Basics Fund -2.2 10.3 23.0 23.5 131.2
FTSE World Composite Index -2.2 9.4 16.8 14.5 34.6
Equity Global sector average -4.1 0.0 10.5 9.7 -15.3
Quartile 1 1 1 1 1
Source: Morningstar, French database, Equity Global Sector, as at 31 December 2007, in euro, share A class, bid to bid net income reinvested
*since inception performance shown as cumulative
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-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
22.5
3
Jun-04
Sep-04
Dec-04
Mar-05
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Mar-06
Jun-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
Mar-07
Jun-07
Sep-07
Dec-07
Book to Price Dividend Yield Earnings Yld C'Flow Yield Sales to Price
Style analysis – overall portfolio
Source: Style Research as at end December 2007
Value bias returnsStrong value bias
Std
dev
iatio
n fro
m b
ench
mar
k m
ean
Decline in value bias
An investment approach focused on company valuations
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Valuations remain the key factor
Source: CSFB HOLT, January 2008
Rio Tinto vs Sherritt International
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-5-4-3-2-101234
Book to
PriceDivid
end Yield
Earning
s Yld
C'Flow Yield
Sales to
PriceIBES Div Y
ldIBES Engs
YldIBES Sale
s Yld
Sales to
EVEBITDA to
EVRtn o
n Equi
ty
Earning
s Grow
thInc
ome/S
ales
Sales G
rowth
IBES 12Mth G
rIBES 1Y
r Rev
IBES Sales 1
2m Gr
IBES Engs LT
GIBES Sale
s LTG
Sustain
able G
rowth
Market C
apMark
et Beta
Moment
um MT
Debt/Equi
tyFore
ign Sale
s
Earning
s Gr S
tability
Sales G
r Stab
ilityLow
Accrual
s
Resources Non Resources
Source: Style Research as at end December 2007, based on a composite of the FTSE World Benchmark.
Value Growth Other
Splitting the portfolio – resources and non-resourcesS
td d
evia
tion
from
ben
chm
ark
mea
n %
A complementary balance of value and growth
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Sector breakdown
Basic materials 39.4 14.2 25.2
Healthcare 4.3 0.0 4.3
Consumer goods 22.4 21.8 0.6
Financials 0.1 0.0 0.1
Industrials 17.6 23.2 -5.6
Consumer services 3.9 11.4 -7.5
Utilities 0.4 9.3 -8.9
Oil & gas 10.3 20.0 -9.7
Cash 1.6 0.0 1.6
Sector Fund % Index % Relative %
Source: M&G Investment Management, as at 31 December 2007
Broad spread of ‘basic’ industries and companies
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Geographic split
Geographic split Portfolio %
US 31.5
France 17.2
Australia 14.9
UK 14.0
Germany 5.0
Canada 3.6
Singapore 2.6
Ireland 1.9
Austria 1.6
Norway 1.3
Other 5.0
Source: M&G Investment Management, as at 31 December 2007
Emerging market exposure through established ‘western’ companies
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Appendix
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10 largest positions
Eramet 5.0 0.0 France Nickel mining
EADS 3.5 0.1 France Aerospace & defence
Tullow Oil 3.5 0.1 UK Oil & gas
Constellation Brands 3.4 0.0 US Beverages
Lonmin 3.2 0.1 UK Platinum mining
Pilgrim's Pride 2.9 0.0 US Chicken production
Johnson Matthey 2.8 0.1 UK Platinum processing
Sims 2.7 0.0 Australia Metal recycling
Bluescope Steel 2.7 0.0 Australia Steel
FMC 2.6 0.0 US Speciality chemicals
Stock Fund % Index % Country Description
Source: M&G Investment Management, as at 31 December 2007
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-2.5
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07
Performance during H2 2007
Source: Six monthly performance of Global Basics relative to the FTSE World benchmark
Performance has been resilient during recent volatile months
Relative performance of Global Basics during H2 2007
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What areas are we avoiding in 2008?
• Japan
• Financials
• Companies with excessive leverage
• Retailers
• Chinese equities
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What do we expect for 2008?
• Remain upbeat on global demand
– In spite of problems such as sub-prime / credit crunch in the U.S.
• Another year of major divergence of returns for individual sectors
– Stock/sector-based investment approach should yield better results than index investing
• Continue to move away from traditional areas (e.g. Japan, US) towards areas where we see the greatest potential for the next decade
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A plethora of investment opportunities
Purchases Agrana Beteiligungs
Arkema
Bluescope Steel
HK & Shanghai Hotels
EADS
PZ Cussons
Coates Hire
Johnson Matthey
Yamaha Motor
Chaoda Modern Agric.
Kerry Group
Ansell
Wienerberger
VF Corp
Pilgrim’s Pride
Fraser & Neave
Constellation Brands
Symrise
Elizabeth Arden
Futuris
Sales BG GroupBHP BillitonImpala PlatinumFirst Quantum MineralsRio Tinto
CVRDFalconbridgeTate & LyleAbbot GroupChevron Corp
Source: M&G information
Ongoing portfolio diversification
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Returns are being transformed by external developments
Source: CSFB HOLT, January 2008
Eramet Peabody Energy
Wienerberger Yamaha Motor
Across a wide range of ‘basic’ companies
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Lifestyle trends
• Manufactures and distributes a large portfolio of wines, beers & spirits
• Exposed to the trend of growing wine consumption in developed markets
• Sustainable business model supported by strong distribution capabilities and marketing expertise
• Good returning company in a consolidating market
Stock example – Constellation Brands
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Consumer goods
• Japan based manufacturer and distributor of motorcycles, marine engines, boats and all-terrain vehicles
• After restructuring and consolidation of its businesses the company is now executing a strategy of profitable growth
• Held within the fund since September 2007. A classic ‘basic’ company set to benefit from the emergence of a consumer market in developing economies
Stock example – YAMAHA Motor Co
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Branded goodsStock example – Elizabeth Arden
• Global beauty products company with a range of prestige fragrances, skin care and cosmetics brands
• Unilever sold the company in 2001 to French Fragrances who subsequently changed the name to Elizabeth Arden
• The company's strategy of growing into new markets fits the fund managers theme of companies benefiting from the emergence of consumer markets in developing countries
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Style analysis – resources holdings
Source: Style research as at end December 2007
‘Cheap’ relative to materials sector as a whole
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Book to
PriceDivid
end Yield
Earning
s Yld
C'Flow Yield
Sales to
PriceEBITDA to
PriceRtn o
n Equi
tyEarn
ings G
rowth
Incom
e/Sale
sSale
s Grow
thIBES 12
Mth Gr
IBES 1Yr R
evMark
et Cap
Market B
etaMom
entum
STMom
entum
MTDebt
/Equity
Foreign
Sales
Low Gear
ing
Basic Material holdings versus sector average
%
Value Growth Other
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• Selecting stocks on the basis of their index weighting
• Short-term trading strategies
• Changing our investment principles if they’re out of fashion
• Following market consensus
• Selecting stocks on the basis of their index weighting
• Short-term trading strategies
• Changing our investment principles if they’re out of fashion
• Following market consensus
Our core values
• Increasing the real value of our investors’ wealth over the long term
• Active, consistent, long only investment management
• Culture of integrity and original thinking
• Adding value by focusing on whatwe know
• Increasing the real value of our investors’ wealth over the long term
• Active, consistent, long only investment management
• Culture of integrity and original thinking
• Adding value by focusing on whatwe know
We believe in… We don’t believe in…
Committed to preserving our investment principles
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Company visits
G. French and M. VaightNovember 20057 company visits (South Africa, Zambia, Congo)
C. Filott & S. RhodesMay 2007, 10 company visits
C. Filott, M. Godfrey, secondment in Hong Kong and regional company visits, Nov 2006
G. FrenchNovember 2007company visits (Australia)
Team visit, German company meetings,August 2006
M. Godfrey & M. VaightMay 200642 company visits
A. Smith, G. Aldridge, C. D’Olier& C. Filott, July 200710 company meetings
S. Rhodes, ChinaCompany visits, Sept 2006
G. French & M. VaightMay 200712 company meetings (Dublin)
S. Rhodes & M. VaightMay 2007, 22 company visits (Canada)
G. Aldridge & M. GodfreyMarch 2007 24 company visits (Hong Kong)
G. FrenchApril 2007site visits (Sri Lanka)M. Vaight, M. Godfrey &
S. RhodesAugust 2007 Brazil & Mexico26 company visits
A. Smith, D. Madams Japan18 Company visits, Nov 2006
A. Smith & D. Madams, FranceSeptember 20075 company visits
M. Vaight, M. GodfreyNov 2007 Malaysia, Singapore & HK
G. French &M. VaightOctober 20071 company visit
‘On the ground’ fundamental analysis
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M&G en France
Brice Anger & Olivier Sentenac
90 avenue des Champs Elysées - 75008 Paris
Tél : 01 56 43 50 76 – Fax : 01 56 43 50 83
E-mails : [email protected], [email protected]
www.mandg.fr
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Identifiant : mandg
Mot de passe : france
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This financial promotion is issued by M&G Securities Limited supplied for your use only, not for onward distribution to any other person or entity. This document is designed for investment professionals’ use only. M&G Investment Funds (1) is an open-ended investment company with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales under registered number IC 110 and authorised by the Financial Services Authority with effect from 6 June 2001. The Fund has been certified as UCITS (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) in accordance with the Counsel Directive of 20/12/85 (Directive 85/611/EEC as amended). The Fund is registered for public distribution in Germany in accordance with Sec 132 of the Investment Act, in Austria in accordance with Sec. 36 Investment Fund Act and in Luxembourg under Chapter 7, Part I of the law of 20th December 2002, as amended. In Italy the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 42 Legislative decree No. 58/1998. In Spain the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes, reg. no 390. The following sub-funds only are registered for sale in Switzerland: M&G American, M&G Global Basics, M&G Global Leaders, M&G European, M&G Pan European, M&G European Smaller Companies, M&G International Growth, M&G Japan Fund, M&G Japan Smaller Companies, M&G North American Value and M&G Asian. The Fund in registered for public distribution in France pursuant to an authorisation granted by the AMF on 4 September 2007. M&G Investment Funds (2) is an open-ended investment company with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales under registered number IC000116 and authorised by the Financial Services Authority with effect from 1 August 2001. The Fund has been certified as UCITS (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) in accordance with the Counsel Directive of 20/12/85 (Directive 85/611/EEC as amended). The Fund is registered for public distribution in Luxembourg under Chapter 7, Part I of the law of 20th December 2002, as amended. The following sub-fund only is registered for sale in Switzerland: M&G UK Growth.M&G Investment Funds (3) is an open-ended investment company with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales under registered number IC000117 and authorised by the Financial Services Authority with effect from 8 August 2001. The Fund is an open-ended fund under English law and has been certified as UCITS (Undertaking for the Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) in accordance with the Counsel Directive of 20 December 1985 (Directive 85/611/EEC, as amended). The Fund is registered for public distribution in Germany in accordance with Sec132 of the Investment Act, in Austria in accordance with Sec. 36 Investment Fund Act, and in Luxembourg under Chapter 7, Part I of the law of 20th December 2002, as amended. .In Italy the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 42 Legislative decree No. 58/1998. In Spain the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes, reg. no 391. The following sub-fund only is registered for sale in Switzerland: M&G Recovery. The Fund in registered for public distribution in France pursuant to an authorisation granted by the AMF on 4 September 2007.M&G Investment Funds (6) is an open-ended investment company with variable capital, incorporated in England and Wales under registered number IC 490 and authorised by the Financial Services Authority with effect from17 November 2006. The Fund has been certified as UCITS (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) in accordance with the Counsel Directive of 20/12/85 (Directive 85/611/EEC). The Fund is registered for public distribution in Germany in accordance with Sec 132 of the Investment Act, in Austria in accordance with Sec. 36 Investment Fund Act and in Luxembourg under Chapter 7, Part I of the law of 20th December 2002, as amended. .In Italy the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 42 Legislative decree No. 58/1998. In Spain the Fund is registered for public distribution under Art. 15 of Act 35/2003 on Collective Investment Schemes, reg. no 490. The following sub-fund only is registered for sale in Switzerland: M&G Optimal Income. 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