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GLOBAL AND RUSSIAN ENERGY OUTLOOK 2016
15 February, 2017
THE ENERGY RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE RUSSIAN
ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Prof. Len Grigoriev and Dr. Tatiana Mitrova
THE ANALYTICAL CENTER FOR THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
Three scenarios cover wide range of uncertainties
Favorable(high economy, low risks, technology and capital transfer) Probable (BAU) Critical (economic slowdown, many local conflicts, increasing economic
and technological gap between the countries)
2
Favorable Probable CriticalGlobal population 9, 2 bln. by 2004Global GDP AAGR 3,4% 2,8% 2,1%Geopolitical risks No conflicts Few local conflicts Many local conflicts
State energy policies New plans and methods. Partial implementation of the existing plans.
Current plans are not implemented.
Global CO2 quotas trade
Global trade is emerging No global market, but regional trade is developing successfully.
No development
New technologies No technological revolutions. Several technological breakthroughs, but only for the technologies that are being tested currently.
Technological transfer Unlimited Limited No transfer, new technologies develop only in OECD and in China
Scenario Matrix
Fossil fuels are still dominating the fuel mix, though it is becoming more diversified: gas and RES are demonstrating the highest growth 3
Primary energy demand by fuel (in 2015 and increase by 2040),
Probable Scenario
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
Structure of primary energy demand by fuel in 2015 and in 2040, Probable Scenario
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Other RES
mtoe
2040
2015
31%
22%28%
5%2% 10%
1%
27%
24%25%
6%
3%
11%4%
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Bioenergy
Other renewables
2040
ERIRAS-AC Outlook is among the lowest demand projections 4
Primary energy demand scenarios comparison
Sources: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC, WEO-2016, IEO-2016, BP, ExxonMobil, OPEC
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000ER
IRAS
-AC
(Pro
bable
) 201
6
ERIR
AS-A
C (C
ritica
l) 20
16
ERIR
AS-A
C (F
avor
able)
2016
OPEC
2016
BP 20
17
IEA 20
16 N
P
IEA 20
16 C
P
EIA D
OE 20
16 R
efer
ence
case
ERIR
AS-A
C (P
roba
ble) 2
016
ERIR
AS-A
C (C
ritica
l) 20
16
ERIR
AS-A
C (F
avor
able)
2016
OPEC
2016
IEA 20
16 N
P
IEA 20
16 C
P
EIA D
OE 20
16 R
efer
ence
case
Exxo
nMob
il 201
6
2014 2030 2040
RES
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
mtoe
Increasing electrification and electricity demand in all regions and in all scenarios 5
Electricity demand outlook for three scenarios
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2040 2040
2010 2015 Probable Scenario CriticalScenario
FavorableScenario
TW·h
Africa
Middle East
Non-OECD Asia
OECD Asia
CIS
Europe
South and CentralAmericaNorth America
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
Huge regional differences in the electricity generation fuel mix will increase 6
Electricity generation by region and by fuel in 2015 and in 2040, Probable Scenario
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2015 2040 2015 2040 2015 2040 2015 2040 2015 2040 2015 2040 2015 2040 2015 2040
Non-OECD Asia North America Europe OECD Asia South and CentralAmerica
Middle East CIS Africa
TW·h
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro RES
In all scenarios global demand for liquids is increasing, driven by non-OECD countries, but the growth is very slow
Liquid fuel demand by region for three scenarios
7
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2040 2040
Probable Scenario CriticalScenario
FavorableScenario
CIS
Africa
OECD Asia
Middle East
South and CentralAmerica
Europe
North America
Non-OECD Asia
m toe
Peak Chinese liquids demand Liquids demand growth in non-OECD Asia
Main liquids demand growth in non-OECD will be located not in China,but in India and in the other non-OECD Asia 8
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
Critical Scenario Probable Scenario Favorable Scenario
m toe
0 %
1 %
2 %
3 %
4 %
5 %
6 %
1990
-201
5
Criti
cal S
cena
rio
Prob
able
Scen
ario
Favo
rable
Sce
nario
1990
-201
5
Criti
cal S
cena
rio
Prob
able
Scen
ario
Favo
rable
Sce
nario
1990
-201
5
Criti
cal S
cena
rio
Prob
able
Scen
ario
Favo
rable
Sce
nario
China Other non-OECD Asia India
International fossil fuel trade is expanding mainly in Asia 9
International fossil fuel trade
Oil Gas Coal
Netto-exporting region Netto-importing region
North AmericaEurope
Africa
Middle East
CIS
Asia Pacific
South and Central America
-300-150
0150
3002015 2040
-250
0
250
2015 2040
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
02015 2040
0
150
300
450
600
2015 2040
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
02015 2040
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
2015 2040
0
300
600
2015 2040
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
The new conjuncture of the external energy markets does not allow Russia to increase energy exports by more than 10% 10
Total Russian energy export in 1991-2040
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
m toe
Probable Scenario
Favorable Scenario
Critical Scebario
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
Russian oil output will decline in all scenarios post 2020 11
Russian oil output outlook
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Reserves growth
Greenfields
Brownfields
Condensate
Critical Scenario
Favorable Scenario
mln tonnes
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
Russian oil exports are driven by the Asian expansion 12
Russian oil exports by destination
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2040 2040
Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Favor.Sc.
East West CIS
mln tonnes
Russian petroleum product exports by destination
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2040 2040
Probable Scenario Crit. Sc. Favor.Sc.
CIS West East
mln tonnes
Source: Global and Russian Energy Outlook-2016, ERI RAS-AC
13
Global and Russian Energy Outlook 2016http://www.eriras.ru/files/forecast_2016.pdf