global and regional emissions and mitigation policies (with application of erb model for india)
DESCRIPTION
Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies (with Application of ERB model for India). P.R. Shukla. Top Down models. Energy Economy linkages Partial Equilibrium in energy markets through price adjustments Endogenous determination of prices Feedback of prices on GDP - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Global and Regional Emissions and Mitigation Policies
(with Application of ERB model for India)
P.R. Shukla
Top Down models
Energy Economy linkages Partial Equilibrium in energy markets through price
adjustmentsEndogenous determination of prices
Feedback of prices on GDP Demand endogenously determined
Supply of energy, demographic parameters exogenously specified
ERB Model : Application for India
Disaggregation by fuel typeConventional oil, conventional gas, coal, nuclear power,
hydroelectric power, solar electric power Global scale and regional detail
Nine Regions - US, OECD West, Japan-Australia-New Zealand, EE/FSU, Middle East, China and other South Asian countries, Latin America, Africa, and India
Long-term applicability : Terminal year 2095 Four modules
Supply, Demand, Energy balance, GHG emissions
Overview: ERB
RegionalLabour Forces
RegionalLabour
Productivities
Regional GNP
TechnicalChange
Regional taxes and
tariffs
Regionalresource
constraints
Technology and Cost
Char.
RegionalEnergy
Demands
RegionalPrices
WorldPrices
RegionalEnergySupplies
CO2Emissions
RegionalPopulation
GlobalSupplies
andDemands
Supply Supply categories
Resource constrained exhaustible conventional oil and gasproduction rates follow logistic paths
Resource constrained renewable hydro production rates follow logistic paths
Backstop unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar and nuclearinfinitely elastic supply schedule
Supply by grades
Demand
Demand depends on population, GNP, and prices Regional prices of oil, gas and coal determined from
world prices, transportation cost and taxes or subsidies Regional prices of secondary fuels from the price of
six primary energy fuels Cost and supply of hydro determined exogenously Market share of five fuels determined by logit
framework
Demand
Energy service prices for Residential/Commercial, Transport and Industry sectors
Sectoral energy service demand is determined using income and price elasticities
Fuel shares, fuel rates, and technological improvement determine fuel demand in end-use sectors
Fossil fuel demand for primary energy is sum of demand from end-use sectors, electric utilities and synfuel conversion from coal.
Energy balances Markets for nuclear, solar and hydro are cleared
as identities Energy market for oil, gas and coal are cleared
through price adjustments in an equilibrium framework
Excess demand in each of the markets as function of prices
Price elasticities obtained by numerical procedure and used to revise the prices for market clearance
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Carbon emissions determined by applying carbon coefficients
Zero carbon release coefficients for nuclear, solar and conservation
Key parameters in Reference Case
Population Annual growth rate for India: 1.1 % (1990-2050)
Labour productivity Annual growth rate for India: 4 % (1990-2050)
Rate of exogenous end-use energy efficiency improvement Annual growth rate for India: 2 % (1990-2050)
Fossil fuel resource base Non-greenhouse environmental costs of fuels
Assumptions : Non-intervention scenarios
Scenario Population EconomicGrowth
Energy Supplies
IS92a World Bank (1991)11.3 billion by 2100
1990-2025: 2.9%1990-2100: 2.3%
12000 EJ Conventional Oil,13000 EJ Natural Gas.Solar cost fall to $0.075/kWh.199 EJ/yr of biofuels availableat $70/barrel.
IS92c UN Medium-LowCase: 6.4 billion by 2100
1990-2025: 2.0%1990-2100: 1.2%
8000 EJ Conventional Oil,7300 EJ Natural Gas. Nuclearcost decline by 0.4% annually.
IS92e Same as ‘a’ 1990-2025: 3.5%1990-2100: 3.0%
18400 EJ Conventional Oil,Gas same as ‘a’.Phase out Nuclear by 2075.
Source: Climate Change 1994, IPCC
Intervention scenarios
Advance technologies Hydrogen fuel cells as alternative power source Low cost biomass source with 20 percent of biomass
available at $1.40 per GJ and 80 percent at $2.40 per GJ by 2020
Exogenous global end-use energy intensity improvement rate reaches 2 percent per year by 2050
Carbon Tax $100 tax per tonne of carbon content in the fuels imposed
in each region Stabilisation of emissions
Global carbon emissions restricted to 7850 TgC (550 ppmv) in the terminal year
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
Tri
llion
Dol
lars
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU
ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
Tri
llion
Dol
lars
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU
ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
Regional GDP Reference Case
0
5
10
15
20
25
BtC
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
US OECD WestJANZ EE/FSUACENP MIDEASTAFR LAINDIA
Region 1990 2095US 23 12OECD West 17 7JANZ 6 3AFR 3 12EE/FSU 27 12LA 4 7MIDEAST 3 4ACENP 15 35India 3 10
Global Carbon emissions: Reference Case
1370 EJ 123 EJ
Global Primary Energy Consumption: Reference Case
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
US OECD West JANZ EE/FSU ACENP MIDEAST AFR LA INDIA
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 20950
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
EJ
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Global Primary Energy Use by Fuel Type: Reference Case
0
400
800
1200
1600
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Year
Exa
joul
es
OIL GAS COAL BIO HYDRO SOLAR NUCLR
0
400
800
1200
1600
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Year
Exa
joul
es
OIL GAS COAL BIO HYDRO SOLAR NUCLR
Price of traded fuels - IS92a
02468
101214161820
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Year
1985
US$
/GJ
OIL GAS COAL
02468
101214161820
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Year
1985
US$
/GJ
OIL GAS COAL
Energy Intensity IS92a
Global Primary Energy Consumption: Tax Cases
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
No tax $10 Tax $100 Tax $150 Tax
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
EJ
No tax $10 Tax $100 Tax $150 Tax
Primary Energy Consumption in India : Tax Cases
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Year
Exa
joul
es
No Tax 10$ Tax 100$ Tax 150$ Tax
Global Carbon Emissions Tax Cases
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Year
Ter
agra
m C
arbo
n
No Tax 10$ Tax 100$ Tax 150$ Tax
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095Year
Ter
agra
m C
arbo
n
No Tax 10$ Tax 100$ Tax 150$ Tax
Carbon Emissions in India: Tax Cases
ERB Tax Cases - Global v/s India
Global IndiaTax Level Carbon Energy Carbon Energy mitigation (%) reduction (%) mitigation (%) reduction (%)$10 5 2 4 2$25 12 5 10 4$50 24 10 19 7$100 40 19 30 12$150 49 26 35 20
Cumulative - 1990 to 2095
Advance Technology
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
200
250
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
$100 Tax
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
Stabilisation
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095Year
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095Year
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095Year
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
0
50
100
150
2005 2035 2065 2095Year
Exa
joul
es
Oil Gas Coal Bio Hydro Solar Nuclear
Carbon Emissions
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Ter
agra
msC
arbo
n
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
0500
1000150020002500300035004000
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Ter
agra
msC
arbo
n
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
Methane Emissions
0
5
10
15
20
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Mill
ion
tonn
es
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
0
5
10
15
20
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Mill
ion
tonn
es
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
N2O Emissions
0
50
100
150
200
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Thou
sand
tonn
es
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
0
50
100
150
200
2005 2035 2065 2095
Year
Thou
sand
tonn
es
IS92c IS92e TECH TAX STAB
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
Exa
joul
es
IS92a IS92c IS92e Adv.Tech $100 Tax 550 ppm
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
Year
Exa
joul
es
IS92a IS92c IS92e Adv.Tech $100 Tax 550 ppm
Global Primary Energy Use - Scenarios