glencoe social studies current events...
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Glencoe Social Studies
CURRENTEVENTS UPDATE
FALL 2002
FOCUS ON THE
MIDDLE EAST
Glencoe Partners With TIME!
To the Teacher:
In an ongoing effort to keep you and your students up-to-date on the complex and far-reaching events that are unfolding around the globe, Glencoe/McGraw-Hill provides this current events update twice a year.
Produced through a co-publishing relationship between Glencoe/McGraw-Hill and Time Learning Ventures, the Time/Glencoe CurrentEvents Update Fall 2002 brings the latest information about importanthappenings, issues and trends to your students in the vivid and com-pelling style for which Time is renowned. On the following pages, you’ll findnews reports, feature stories, chronologies, maps, graphs, charts and polldata taken exclusively from recent issues of Time. Accompanying these ar-ticles are questions and worksheets to help students analyze and investigatethe topics about which they have been reading. We hope the Time/Glen-coe Current Events Update Fall 2002 will lead your students to a deeper understanding of the latest developments in the United States and abroad.
Please visit Glencoe’s website at www.glencoe.com/sec/socialstudies to ac-cess this update online. Additional resources for teaching current eventsare available on a weekly basis from the Time Classroom website, locat-ed at www.timeclassroom.com
Best wishes,
Marty Nordquist Bennett SingerEditorial Director, Social Studies Executive EditorGlencoe/McGraw-Hill Time Classroom
1
Current Events UpdateThe Saga of the Siege....................................................................2
Untangling Jenin’s Tale..................................................................4
A Land Divided..............................................................................7
Why Suicide Bombing … Is Now All The Rage......................8
Better Late Than Never..............................................................10
✍ WORKSHEET: Leadership in the Middle East......................................12
Encountering the Taliban...........................................................13
Inside Saddam’s World................................................................15
Will Milosevic Get His?..............................................................17
Our New Best Friend?................................................................19
War Clouds in Kashmir...............................................................21
✍ WORKSHEET: The Kashmir Conflict................................................23
Time For Hardball?....................................................................24
Whipping Up A Fight.................................................................26
✍ WORKSHEET: Delay vs. Pelosi: A Study in Contrasts............................27
WorldCon......................................................................................28
The Coming Job Boom..............................................................30
✍ WORKSHEET:Current Events In Review............................................32
Answers.........................................................Inside Back Cover
middle east
afghanistan
iraq
serbia
russia
kashmir
japan
congress
business
G L E N C O E S O C I A L S T U D I E S
W O R L D
N A T I O N
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2 time, may 20, 2002
By MATT REES/BETHLEHEM
The church of the nativity, one of the
world’s oldest working churches, has neverbeen an especially peaceful place. Theholy men who run it—Greek Orthodox,Armenian Orthodox and
Roman Catholic clerics—bickerover who gets to clean whichpiece of sacred wall and who canwalk in which aisle. Seized andbesieged by a host of armies overthe centuries, the church haseven inspired bickering among scholars, who argueabout whether Jesus was born here at all.
But holy places still have special power. Muslimsare specifically ensured the right to pray in theChurch of the Nativity, a privilege dating backto a.d. 638. Two hundred forty gunmen and by-standers took refuge in the church but in timeagreed to leave it. Israeli soldiers, swarming intoBethlehem in April as part of the campaign tocrush the machinery of Palestinian terror, sur-rounded the church compound but did not stormit. The end of the siege, after long negotiationsthat nearly went off a cliff several times, broughtrelief to officials on both sides: to the Palestinians,who had feared a violent end, and to the Israelis,who were increasingly embarrassed by the presenceof their troops around one of Christianity’s mostvenerable shrines.
The church bells rang out at last on the morningof May 10, as the sun came up and the men left thechurch that had been their haven for five weeks.U.S. embassy officials later found more than 90rifles and other guns left behind, and Israeli troopssaid they found 40 explosive devices. The 13 gun-men most wanted by Israel were flown to Cyprus,on their way into exile in Europe and possibly
Canada. Twenty-six others were handed over toPalestinian authorities in the Gaza Strip.
That outcome had taken weeks of negotiation.When Israeli and Palestinian authorities agreedto the deportations as a way to defuse the standoff,Israeli hard-liners and Palestinians of every stripe
complained that it was a sellout.But the situation had grown des-perate. The city of Bethlehemhad been in lockdown since April2; food inside the church com-pound had virtually run out.Eight Palestinians had been
killed by Israeli gunfire, and an Armenian monkhad been wounded by an Israeli sniper.
HOW THE SIEGE BEGAN For weeks Manger Squarehad been a refuge for Palestinians like Jihad Ja‘ara,a top gunman from al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Byday they lounged on cheap foam mattresses inthe spring sunshine, believing this was one placethe Israelis would not dare to strike. By night theysneaked out to the edges of town to shoot acrossthe valley at Gilo, a suburb of Jerusalem built onoccupied land. On April 2, Ja‘ara and his gangclashed with the Israelis in the Fawaghreh neigh-borhood of Bethlehem’s Old City. A bullet shatteredJa‘ara’s leg three inches below his knee. His com-rades carried him to Manger Square. As Israelisoldiers converged, the gunmen, anticipating thatthe Israelis would not hesitate to enter the squarethis time, fled into the church with members of thePalestinian Authority’s security forces, a group ofHamas gunmen and about 100 bystanders.
The Israelis knew they could not storm one of theholiest sites in all of Christianity. But there weredozens of accused terrorists inside, includingIbrahim Moussa Abayat, head of the Tanzim mili-tia in Bethlehem, who was convicted of murdering
The Saga of the Siege The inside story of the standoff at the Church of the Nativity—and how the deal was struck to get the Palestinians out
M I D D L E E A S T
FROM INSIDE, A GUNMANPHONED, ASKING, “IS IT
TRUE AN AGREEMENT HASBEEN REACHED?”
a fellow Palestinian by a Palestinian court twoyears ago but was released after a few weeks because his clan rioted. Israel blamed him for theJune 2001 shooting death of Lieut. Colonel YehudaEdri. They were not about to let him walk away.
NEGOTIATIONS PICK UP On May 2, when a similarsiege at Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat’s com-pound in Ramallah finally ended, negotiationsover Bethlehem picked up. At a May 3 meeting inRamallah, Arafat’s Cabinet ministers questionedhis willingness to accede to U.S. and British pro-posals that some of the men inside the church bedeported. “What can I do? This is what the Amer-icans want,” Arafat complained. “I can’t continuesaying no to the Americans. You should showsome understanding of my situation.”
The basic framework of a deal was pounded outby May 7. One last wrinkle came from, of allplaces, a group of international “peace activists”who marched into the church the week before,claiming solidarity with the Palestinians inside.
“They wanted to be dragged out by Israeli soldierson camera,” says an official who helped negotiate aresolution to the siege.
The 13 men facing deportation were the first toleave the church. “They sacrificed themselves sothe siege could end,” says Mazin Hussain, 28, anofficer in the Palestinian Authority’s drug-prevention unit. And though the men were greet-ed as returning heroes, all the celebrations inGaza could not disguise the fact that men mostPalestinians consider fighters on their behalf hadbeen sold out by Arafat. “After weeks and weeks ofthe siege, Arafat has basically given in to all the Israeli demands,” charged Hosam Hillez, a 27-year-old Gazan. “So what was the point of dragging thewhole thing out for so long?” As the monks beganto clean up the squalid interior of the basilica, theywere no doubt asking the same question. π
Questions
1. When and why did the siege occur at the Churchof the Nativity?2. What was Arafat’sposition on resolvingthe siege? How did
Palestinians react toArafat’s stance?
M I D D L E E A S T
Grotto of the NativitySilver star marks site believed to be where Jesus was born
High altar
Grotto of St. Jerome
Gate of HumilityWhere Palestinians entered
NaveWhere Palestinians slept
Greek Orthodox basilica
Franciscan monastery Nativity
Square
Greek Orthodox monastery
Greek Orthodox courtyard Armenian
courtyard
Armenian convent
St. Catherine’s Church
Franciscan courtyard
To Manger Square
Stairsto grotto
INSIDE THE CHURCH
TIME Graphic by Ed Gabel
time, may 20, 2002 3
4 time, may 13, 2002
By MATT REES
The street is a new one, carved by a
huge bulldozer out of what was once anarrow alley. It leads to a place wheregunmen and tanks forged a new, terrifyingchapter in the long wars of the Middle
East. The alley was just three feet wide before theIsraeli army sent its heavily armored CaterpillarD-9 down what is now a rutted track; as you walkalong it, up a mild gradient toward Hospital Street,your feet raise little puffs of dust from the rubbleof what were once concrete homes. The path iscovered with the litter of war—broken sea-greenceramic tiles, a punctured cooking-gas cylinder, athin foam mattress, a blond-haired baby doll. Asyou make your way into the camp, the snarl oftraffic in the town and the calls of peddlers recede,and when you reach Hospital Street, all is silent.The Palestinians who live in Jenin Refugee Campshuffle and gawk, still stunnedby the battle that wrecked theirhouses four weeks ago.
There was a battle at theJenin Refugee Camp. It was realurban warfare, as a modern,well-equipped army met anarmed and prepared group ofguerrilla fighters intimately familiar with the local terrain. For both sides, Jenin has beenadded to the memories that in-vest the conflict in the MiddleEast with extreme bitterness.Because Jenin has become sopotent a symbol, a new battlehas broken out over what pre-cisely happened there and whatits wider significance will be.
A Time investigation concludes that there was nowanton massacre in Jenin, no deliberate slaughterof Palestinians by Israeli soldiers. But the 12 days offighting took a severe toll on the camp. Accordingto the U.N., 54 Palestinians are confirmed dead. Anadditional 49 are missing; it is unclear how manyof them perished in the fighting and how many either fled or were captured by Israeli troops. In thefinal count, there may well be fewer dead in Jeninthan the 78 killed in Nablus Casbah in a battlethat took place at the same time. But it is Jenin thathas attracted worldwide attention because of thewidespread destruction of property and becausesome of those who died during the fighting weremere spectators.
Human Rights Watch, which in a publishedreport last week also concluded that no massacretook place, nonetheless documented 22 civiliandeaths and said the Israelis used excessive and indiscriminate force during the operation. Time
Untangling Jenin’s Tale For both Israelis and Palestinians, a deadly battle in a West Bankrefugee camp has become a potent symbol of their struggle
M I D D L E E A S T
MarMartyrstyrs’cemetercemetery
JENINJENINREFUGEE CAMPREFUGEE CAMP
WaddamaddamShalabeShalabe’s
househouse
U.N.U.N.compoundcompound
Tawalbeawalbe’slast standlast stand
MosqueMosqueAl-AbirAl-Abir
New rNew roadoadcarcarved by Israelived by Israelibulldozersbulldozers
HawashinHawashinDistrict:District:Area of Area of greatestgreatestdestructiondestruction
Hospital StrHospital Streeteet
JeninJeninHospitalHospital
AmbushAmbushkills 13kills 13IsraeliIsraeli
soldierssoldiers
TIME Map by Joe LerTIME Map by Joe LertolatolaSourSources: ces: TIME rTIME reporeporting; ting; Israeli Defense ForIsraeli Defense Force; ce; Space Imaging; Space Imaging; East VEast View Cariew Cartographictographic
0
0 200 400 600m
600400200yards
Martyrs’cemetery
JENINREFUGEE CAMP
WaddamShalabe’s
house
U.N.compound
Tawalbe’slast stand
MosqueAl-Abir
New roadcarved by Israelibulldozers
HawashinDistrict:Area of greatestdestruction
Hospital Street
JeninHospital
Ambushkills 13
Israelisoldiers
TIME Map by Joe LertolaSources: TIME reporting; Israel Defense Force; Space Imaging; East View Cartographic
Jerusalem
NablusJENIN
Ramallah
Jericho
Bethlehem
Hebron
TelAviv
I SR
AE
L
W E S TB A N K J
OR
DA
N
20 miles20 km
time, may 13, 2002 5
found that as Israeli soldiers moved from house tohouse, they sometimes compelled Palestiniancivilians to take the dangerous job of leading theapproach to the buildings. On the other hand, asenior Palestinian military officer has admitted toTime that some of those who died were killed byrubble from the exploding booby traps with whichPalestinian fighters had honeycombed the camp.
But the accusations and their rebuttals do notcapture the lessons of the battle. In Jenin the Israelissent a message: there is no refuge, no haven, forthose who send out human bombers to blow them-selves and Israelis apart in restaurants and cafés.And the Palestinians sent their message in return:they can kill Israelis in Palestinian towns just as wellas in Tel Aviv. Under the slabs of fallen masonry inJenin is a new legend of martyrdom and heroism,one that will be used in years to come to stiffen thesinews of those who would fight against Israelirule: a threat of armed force met by defiant resis-tance. Written in the twisted metal and crushed cin-der block of Jenin is the new reality of an old con-flict with no end in sight. This is how it happened:
THE ISRAELIS PREPARE In the last week of March,Major General Itzik Eitan, Israel’s Chief of CentralCommand, submitted his plan to take over theJenin Refugee Camp to Chief of Staff LieutenantGeneral Shaul Mofaz. Both men knew it wouldbe one of the toughest missions of Israel’s Defen-sive Shield operation, which began March 28 inRamallah when the Israelis surrounded the com-pound of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. TheJenin camp, which is administered by the UnitedNations Relief and Works Agency, has existedsince 1953; 13,055 registered refugees live in asquare whose sides are about 600 yards long.
Even by the standards of Palestinian refugeecamps, Jenin is gruesomely special. Since the startof the Aqsa intifadeh in September 2000, thecamp’s activists, drawn from the Aqsa MartyrsBrigades, Islamic Jihad and Hamas, have orches-trated at least 28 suicide attacks on Israeli targets.An internal document of Arafat’s Fatah organiza-tion, written in September last year and capturedby the Israelis during a recent sweep, characterizedthe camp’s people as “ready for self-sacrifice with
all their means … It is not strange that Jenin hasbeen termed the capital of suicide attackers.”
The Israeli authorities knew all about Jenin, andthey knew those in the camp they wanted to takeout. Their top target was Mahmoud Tawalbe, a23-year-old father of two who worked in a recordstore but also headed the local Islamic Jihad cell.Tawalbe had launched numerous attacks againstIsraelis, including a shooting last October thatkilled four Israeli women on the main street ofHadera, a town north of Tel Aviv. Last July, Tawalbehad dispatched his 19-year-old brother Murad ona suicide mission to Haifa. (Murad lost his nerveand surrendered to Israeli police.) Other top IslamicJihad targets in Jenin included Thabet Mardawi,who was behind a March 20 suicide bomb thatkilled seven Israelis on a bus.
Eitan planned to send his troops in from threedirections. The 5th Infantry Brigade would close inthrough the town of Jenin, which abuts the campto the north. From the southeast and southwestwould come two thrusts—1,000 troops in all. Theforce would include units of navy seals, tanks,engineers to handle the roadside bombs that mili-tary intelligence predicted would line the alleys ofthe camp, and heavily armored bulldozers tocarve paths for tanks.
Eitan ruled out an air attack; he feared giving thePalestinians the public relations coup of masscivilian casualties. His assessment: the army could
M I D D L E E A S T
TIME/CNN POLLπ Do you think Israel has gone too far in its military responseto attacks by Palestinians against Israeli soldiers and civiliansin recent weeks, or don’t you think it has gone too far?Gone too far............................................................46%Has not gone too far...............................................44%
π If Israel does not withdraw its troops immediately from theWest Bank cities, do you think the U.S. should cut off all orsome of its economic and military aid to Israel?Cut off all economic and military aid to Israel....27%Reduce economic and military aid to Israel........33%Keep economic and military aid to Israel the same...................................................................31%Increase economic and military aid to Israel........1%
From a telephone poll of 1,003 adult Americans taken for TIME/CNN on April 10–11by Harris Interactive. Margin of error is ±3.1%. “Not sures” omitted.
6 time, may 13, 2002
take control of the camp in 48 to 72 hours. Thatturned out to be wildly optimistic.
On March 30, the 5th Brigade was mobilized.There was no problem of motivation; like most Is-raelis, the soldiers had been shocked by the suicideattack on a hotel in Netanya three days earlier, anatrocity that killed 28 Israelis sitting down for aPassover seder. The bomber had been sent by aHamas cell based in Jenin. As the troops of the5th Brigade arrived at their base in Ofer, north ofJerusalem, many wore civilian clothes, while someof those in uniform wore tennis shoes instead ofboots. As they hauled their kit bags out of theircars, they could see hundreds of Palestinians whohad been arrested during theIsraeli sweep of Ramallah thatbegan two days before.
The operations across theWest Bank had stretched the Israeli army thin. By March 30,Israeli troops were already occu-pying Ramallah and Bethlehem. On Monday, April1, they would go into Tulkarem and Qalqilya. Theelite Paratroop Brigade was poised outside Nablus.The 5th Brigade, scheduled for Jenin, was made upof reservists mostly in their late 20s and early 30s,but the brass thought they could handle the toughassignment. “There were indications it was goingto be hard,” says Major General Dan Harel, thearmy’s operations chief. “But we didn’t think it wasgoing to be so hard.” The soldiers were supposedto head for Jenin on April 1, but rain and delays inshipping equipment forced Colonel Yedidia Yehu-da, the brigade’s commander, to wait until Tuesday,April 2. Around midnight, the Israeli tanks, whichhad massed west of the town, started to move in.
INSIDE THE CAMP The Palestinian fighters hadmade their own preparations. Booby traps hadbeen laid in the streets of both the camp and thetown, ready to be triggered if an Israeli foot orvehicle snagged a tripwire. Some of the bombswere huge—as much as 250 pounds of explosives,compared with the 25 pounds a typical suicidebomber uses. On Day 2 of the battle, when thetown had been secured but the fight in the campwas just beginning, a huge Caterpillar D-9 bull-
dozer rolled along a three-quarter-mile stretchof the main street to clear booby traps. An Israeliengineering-corps officer logged 124 separateexplosions set off by the vehicle. In the camp,the explosive charges were even more denselypacked, and tunnels had been dug between hous-es so that Palestinian fighters could move aroundwithout exposing themselves on the street. Manynoncombatants had fled; Israeli intelligence be-lieves half the camp’s residents had left beforethe troops arrived, and that by the third day of thebattle 90% of the residents were gone. Even so,that left as many as 1,300 people inside the camp.According to leaders of Islamic Jihad interviewed
by Time, around 100 of those leftwere armed fighters.
The battle took shape in theenvironment that soldiers likeleast, in and around pinched alleys and houses, with amplehiding places and sniper posi-
tions. Inevitably, civilians were caught in the fray.Awad Masarweh, a 49-year-old laborer who worksin Jenin’s vegetable market, took shelter in hishouse on the edge of the camp near the U.N. Reliefand Works Agency’s school, on the side of thecamp through which the 5th Brigade advanced. Atthe end of the first day, says Masarweh, there were90 others in his home, which Palestinians deemedto be among the safest.
On April 17, more than two weeks after thebattle began, Dr. Mohammed Abu Ghali, directorof the Jenin Hospital, was allowed by Israeli soldiersto make his third foray into the camp to tend tovictims. Abu Ghali saw the body of a man crushedby a bulldozer or tank track, his intestines spillingout. The doctor will remember Jenin. So willcountless others, both Israeli and Palestinian.And in the Middle East, memory is the fuel thatnourishes violence, revenge and unending hate. π
Questions
1. Why did Israelis stage an attack on the JeninRefugee Camp?2. What were the results of this battle? What con-clusions did Time’s investigation reach concerningcharges of a massacre of Palestinians by Israelis?
M I D D L E E A S T
A TIME INVESTIGATIONCONCLUDES THAT THERE
WAS NO WANTON MASSACRE IN JENIN.
The Six-Day War
Occupiedterritories
Israel
1967
Camp David I
1978
2000
Plans and Proposals
2002Arab state
United NationsPartition Plan
Jewish state
1947
EGYPT JORDAN
Jerusalemand suburbs
(internationalzone)
Administeredby Jordan
Administeredby Egypt
SYRIAMediterraneanSea
Arab territory
1948-1949 War
EGYPT
E G Y P T
E G Y P T
S i n a i
S i n a i
JORDAN
SAUDIARABIA
SAUDIARABIA
JOR
DA
NJO
RD
AN
LEBANON
SYRIAMediterraneanSea
MediterraneanSea
Israel
1949
Palestinian autonomous areas
Proposed Camp David II Settlement
Palestinian sovereignty
No-man’s-land
Israeli sovereignty/Settlement buildup
Israel security control(ultimately Palestinian sovereignty)
Firststage ofIsraeliexit
W E S TB A N K
Secondstage
DeadSea
Israel
Occupied territories
Returned to Egypt
Nablus
GOLANHEIGHTS
Ramallah
Jericho
Bethlehem
Jerusalem
Hebron
Mizpe Ramon
Elat
Beersheba
Dimona Sedom
Qiryat Gat
Ashqelon
Gaza
KhanYunis
Ashdod
Rehovot
Tiberias
Netanya
Hadera
Nahariyya
QiryatShemona
N e g e v
Sea ofGalilee
Gulfof
Aqaba
DeadSea
1,296 ft.(395 m)belowsealevel
Haifa
Nazareth
Tel Aviv
I S R A E L
We s tB a n k
G a z a S t r i p
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L E B A N O N
J O R D A N(1.57 million
Palestinian refugees)
(825,000Palestinian refugees)
(583,000Palestinian refugees)
(376,000Palestinian refugees)
S Y R I A(383,000
Palestinianrefugees)
E G Y P T
Jord
anR
iver
20 mi.20 km
6,0002,000
feet metersELEVATION
4,000
2,000
0
1,500
1,000
500
0
Med
iterr
anea
nSe
a
3,963 ft.1,208 m
Mt. Dimona2,238 ft.682 m
Mt. Ebal3,084 ft.940 m
Mt. Hatiro2,349 ft.716 m
� Armed forces
ActiveIsrael
163,500
Reserves 425,000
ParamilitaryPalestinian Authority
35,000
� Unemployment rate
Israel 9.0%
Gaza Strip 48.5%
West Bank 30.3%
� GDP
2000Per capita
$110.2 billion$18,900
� Jewish settlers
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
’67 ’80 ’90 ’00 ’01
� Fertility rateBabies born per 100 residents of
Palestinianterritories 6.1
Israel 2.6
2
4
6 million
’60 ’70’49 ’80 ’90 ’00 ’10
(projected)
’20
� Israel5.1million
1.0million
2.0million
6.7million
� Where the Palestinians are
West Bank1.9 million
Gaza Strip1 million
Jerusalem region328,600
E. Jerusalem85,800
West Bankand Gaza
(Arab) EastJerusalem
Populations
Economies
Military
TIME Graphic by Joe Lertola, Ed Gabel, Lon Tweeten, Missy Adams, andUnmesh KherSources: www.us-israel.org, www.fmep.org, Palestinian Authority Census Central Bureau of Statistics, JAFI, UNRWA, Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, Europa, World Bank, CIA World Factbook, Military Balance, Library of Congress, East View Cartographic, www.cartographic.com
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
� Immigration to Israel
’48 ’60 ’70 ’80 ’90 ’00
Israel$4.36 billion
$1,600
West Bankand Gaza
Jews
Arabs
2.9 million7.5 million
TotalTotal in 2025 (projected)
Palestinian area(civil andsecurity control)
Palestinian area(civil control,joint Israeli-Palestiniansecurity control)
Israeli civiland securitycontrol
Jewish-Israelisettlement
Israeli civiland militaryfacility
GAZASTRIP
WEST BANK
TUG-OF-WAR8Settlements in Jerusalem and the occupied territories diminish Palestinian self-rule
Gaza
KhanYunis
DeadSea
Ramallah
Bethlehem
Jerusalem
3 mi.3 km
JERUSALEM
OldCity
Florida
Size comparison
Israel
time, march 25, 2002 7
M I D D L E E A S T
A LAND DIVIDEDIn a sliver of territory between the river and the sea, borders have rarely been fixed for long
8 time, april 15, 2002
By AMANDA RIPLEY
It has been nine years—ages, it seems—
since the first suicide bomb in the history of theIsraeli-Palestinian conflict ripped through theparking lot of a roadside West Bank café. Onthat day—April 16, 1993—Sahar Tamam Nabul-
si, 22, filled a white Mitsubishi van with cooking-gascanisters, placed a copy of the Koran on the pas-senger seat and, acting on be-half of the militant group Hamas,barreled into two buses, killinghimself and another Palestinianand wounding eight Israelis.Days later, the Jerusalem Postwas still, almost quaintly, callingthe attack an “apparent suicide,”noting that the investigation wasongoing.
These days, of course, therewould be no such head scratching. But back thenno one could imagine that 105 more suicidebombers would go on to claim 339 more lives.
The Palestinian suicide bomber has evolvedsince Nabulsi made his debut in the role. Today heis deadlier and requires less coercion. He used to beeasy to describe: male, 17 to 22 years of age, un-married, unformed, facing a bleak future, fanaticallyreligious and thus susceptible to Islam’s promiseof a martyr’s place in paradise, complete withthe affections of heaven’s black-eyed virgins.Today’s bomber no longer fits the profile.
Today he is Izzadin Masri, the 23-year-old son ofa prosperous restaurant owner, who killed him-self and 15 people at a Jerusalem Sbarro pizzeria lastAugust. He is Daoud Abu Sway, 47, a father of
eight not known to be unusually political or reli-gious, who detonated a bomb outside a luxuryhotel in Jerusalem in December, killing himselfand injuring two others. He is even a she. AyatAkhras, 18, was a straight-A student, just monthsaway from graduation and then marriage. OnMarch 29, she killed herself and two others outsidea Jerusalem supermarket. Volunteers such as theseare coming forward faster than militant leaders
can strap an explosive beltaround their waist and sendthem off to kill and die.
Among Palestinians, it has be-come normal—noble, even—forpromising men and women toslaughter themselves in pursuitof revenge and the dignity it isthought to bring. “What wasonce more of an individual de-cision by a small group is be-
coming much more mainstream,” says Jerrold Post,an American psychiatrist who has studied suicidebombings in the West Bank. The suicide-homi-cides have come to be seen by most Palestinians astheir last, best hope. In June a poll taken in the GazaStrip found that 78% of the population approved ofsuicide bombings, considerably more than sup-ported peace talks (60%).
These days Palestinians celebrate the suicides innewspaper announcements that read, perversely,like wedding invitations. “The Abdel Jawad andAssad families and their relatives inside the WestBank and in the Diaspora declare the martyrdomof their son, the martyr Ahmen Hafez Sa’adat,”reads a March 30 notice for the 22-year-old killerof four Israelis in a shooting attack. Palestinian
Why Suicide Bombing...Is Now All The Rage Among Palestinians, dying to kill has become a noble calling. Here’s how the practice went from extreme to mainstream
M I D D L E E A S T
≤When an 18-year-old Palestinian girl is induced to blow herself up and in
the process kills a 17-year-old Israeli girl,
the future itself is dying.≥-PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
time, april 15, 2002 9
children play a game called “Being aMartyr,” in which the “martyr” burieshimself in a shallow grave. And thejob of bomber comes with cash bonus-es and health benefits for the survivingfamily. How else could the Palestin-ian boy or girl next door hope to bepictured on key chains and T shirts?
Once upon a time, in the yearsimmediately following that first bomb-ing in 1993, it was a challenge to recruitsuicide bombers. Field leaders forHamas and Islamic Jihad, the radicalgroups that until lately monopolizedthe bombings, would seek out promis-ing young men from the mosques orthe crowds of rioters at Israeli check-points. The leaders would then submitthe candidates to intense spiritual indoctrinationand terrorist training, watching for signs of doubt.Those who wavered would be quickly dropped.
Until recently most Palestinians believed theyhad alternatives to the kind of militancy practicedby Hamas. For years after the 1993 Oslo peace ac-cord, which brought limited self-rule to the Pales-tinians and the prospect of an independent state,polls showed a strong majority of Palestinians sup-porting the peace process with Israel and only a mi-nority endorsing suicide bombings. Thus, in theirheadhunting, the fundamentalists were limited tostalwart followers of their doctrine, which rejectsany kind of peace with Israel. Even then, Hamasand Islamic Jihad had to persuade—some might saybrainwash—young men into believing that the re-wards of paradise outweighed those of life on earth.
But with the breakdown of the peace process inthe summer of 2000 and the establishment ofthe latest intifadeh that September, the martyrwannabes started coming to Hamas—and theydidn’t require persuading. “We don’t need tomake a big effort, as we used to do in the past,”Abdel Aziz Rantisi, one of Hamas’ senior leaders,told Time last week. The TV news does that workfor them. “When you see the funerals, the killingof Palestinian civilians, the feelings inside thePalestinians become very strong,” he explained.
And not just among fundamentalists. Last
December the mainstream Fatahmovement of Palestinian leader YasserArafat, the nationalist group that formsthe backbone of the Palestine Libera-tion Organization, entered the suicide-bombing business. Since then, the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, a Fatahoffshoot, has taken part in at least 10such attacks, some of them in collabo-ration with Hamas or Islamic Jihad.The Brigades activists are generallynot religious fanatics. “Within Pales-tinian society, in the past year, a verybroad mechanism of social approvalhas been created that makes it possiblefor even less religious people to commitsuicide,” says Ehud Sprinzak, a politi-cal scientist at the Interdisciplinary
Center in Herzliya, Israel. “There’s enormous despair. There’s no meaning to life.”
Officially, at least, members of al-Aqsa MartyrsBrigades part from the fundamentalists in theirgoals: they support the idea of a free Palestine liv-ing in peace beside Israel and say they want only toforce Israel to allow that state to rise up. But fornow, nationalists and fundamentalists are united intheir strategy, which is to kill and maim as many Israelis as possible and to horrify and demoralizethose who go unscathed.
After a bombing, the sponsoring organizationusually distributes to the media a video docu-menting the bomber’s last, triumphant words. Theorganization pays for the funeral, which includes atent outside the family’s home where neighbors cancome to offer condolences and drink coffee. Hamaspays its bombers’ survivors a permanent pension of$300 to $600 a month in addition to bankrolling thefamily’s health care and the education of thebomber’s children. Iraqi President Saddam Husseinalso funds a one-time $25,000 payment for thefamilies—increased from $10,000 about six monthsago in a show of solidarity. π
Questions
1. Why has the phenomenon of suicide bombinggone from extreme to mainstream?2. What incentives are offered to suicide bombers?
M I D D L E E A S T
SUICIDE BOMBERS1993 13
1994 7
1995 8
1996 4
1997 4
1998 2
1999 0
2000 4
2001 36
2002 28**As of April 5. Source: Israeli security services
By MICHAEL DUFFY/WASHINGTON
Consider the situation in the white
House Situation Room last Thursdaymorning: Israeli troops and armor had in-vaded almost every city in the West Bankand surrounded about 200
Palestinian fighters barricaded in-side Bethlehem’s sacred Church ofthe Nativity. Anti-American demon-strations in Cairo, Beirut, Ammanand other Middle Eastern capitalswere making it impossible forWashington’s Arab allies to stay onthe fence. Egypt cut some ties withIsrael and warned the White Housethat the rest could be in jeopardy.Oil prices spiked to $28 a barrel,and the stock market plunged. Anti-Semites van-dalized synagogues in France and Belgium. Amer-ican embassies cabled Washington that they mightbe the next targets. The situation, a senior WhiteHouse official concedes, was “getting out of control.”
Talk about grabbing George W. Bush’s atten-tion: the President finally saw that he had gonedown the wrong road, and he pulled a quick U-turn. When he stepped up to the Rose Gardenpodium Thursday morning, Bush ended morethan a year of stubborn disengagement from theMiddle East peace process, sending Secretary ofState Colin Powell to the region to seek a solutionto the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Bush’s speech wastough and elegant. “The storms of violence cannotgo on,” he said. “Enough is enough.”
The meetings that produced the speech wereeven more extraordinary. For several days, themost powerful people in the Administration hadserved as speechwriters. Bush, Powell, Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld, National Security Adviser CondoleezzaRice and cia Director George Tenet had all calledor crowded into the Situation Room and worked onthe speech line by line—a measure of how troubledand critical this moment really was. The teamadded a great deal of moral embroidery and made
sure that the speech demandedsomething from everyone. In theRose Garden, Bush reached out toYasser Arafat, endorsing Palestinianstatehood and giving the leader an-other chance to stop the terroristsand make peace—but making it clearthis chance would be his last. Bushpressed Israeli Prime Minister ArielSharon to pull his troops and tanksfrom the West Bank cities and in-sisted that Israel begin treating the
Palestinians with “compassion.” Bush called onmoderate Arab countries to stop wringing theirhands and start helping the Palestinians build theirnew nation—but also warned Iraq, Iran and Syrianot to undo the deal by supporting terror.
For the past 11 or so Presidents, it has been a tru-ism that American leaders ignore the Middle Eastat their peril. Many Democrats and Republicansbelieve that Bush checked out of the story early inhis presidency in part because he came to Wash-ington with a reflexive desire to do the opposite ofwhatever his predecessor did. It is true that BillClinton had his hands deep in the Middle Eastmess from his first year in office until the final daysof his presidency in a way that the Bush teamfound inappropriate and even dangerous, giventhat a taste for high-stakes summitry, in its view, ledto dashed hopes and renewed violence.
Beyond that, Bush has been unlucky in his potential partners. Last year Israeli voters re-placed Ehud Barak, who wanted peace, with
Better Late Than Never After several false starts, George W. Bush commits himself—and the U.S.—to ending the bloodshed in the Middle East
M I D D L E E A S T
10 time, april 15, 2002
≤Peace requires a new and different
Palestinian leadership, so that a Palestinian state
can be born.≥—PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH,
IN A SPEECH GIVEN JUNE 24, 2002
time, april 15, 2002 11
Sharon, who doesn’t want it very badly. Bush mayhave figured early on that neither Arafat norSharon was likely to step into the role of peace-maker anytime soon, so why bother trying to con-vert either? And so Bush spent the first two-thirds of 2001 worrying less about foreign policythan domestic matters. When he did look over-seas, first it was Russia and China that testedhim. Then it was Osama bin Laden.
But the central obstacle to engagement in the re-
gion has been Bush’s senior foreign-policy advisers, led by Cheney andRumsfeld. They are staunchly pro-Is-rael and have shown little regard for thepeace process in the past. Concentrat-ed at the Pentagon but salted all aroundthe White House, the hard-liners haveregular access to Bush. They take adim view of the land-for-peace swap onwhich every peace proposal has beenbased for more than a decade. Everytime the Administration’s moderates,led by Powell, pushed Bush for a seri-ous peace initiative in 2001, Cheneyand Rumsfeld fought them to a stand-still. After a while, Powell stopped push-
ing. Following two trips to the region last year to tryto quell the rising violence between Palestiniansand Israelis, he gave up. “Colin got tired,” says aveteran diplomat who knows all the players, “ofgoing over there with nothing in his briefcase.” πQuestions
1. Why did Bush initially want to keep his distancefrom the Middle East?2. What did Bush say must happen before theU.S. will recognize a Palestinian state?
M I D D L E E A S T
BUSH VS. ARAFAT
Does president george w. bush have a
follow-up plan for actually removing Yass-er Arafat from power? Apparently not.In his Middle East speech delivered June24, the President urged the Palestinians
to replace their current leaders (read Arafat) withones “not compromised by terror.” Once that oc-curs, he said, the U.S. will recognize a Palestinianstate and pressure Israel to do likewise. But someAdministration officials admit there’s no blue-print for moving Arafat along. Concedes a WhiteHouse aide: “Some of these tactical aspects we arestill working out.”
There certainly is no consensus within the Pres-ident’s top circle of advisers. Hard-liners like VicePresident Dick Cheney and Defense SecretaryDonald Rumsfeld wanted Bush to push for Arafat’s
ouster. But Secretary of State Colin Powell hasurged Bush to advocate political and economicreforms without demanding Arafat’s removal. Pow-ell, says a senior U.S. Middle East expert, suffereda “frustrating” defeat.
For now, Arafat remains popular among Pales-tinians. But there are some signs of discontent.Mohammed Dahlan, former head of security inGaza, has been addressing crowds of as many as2,000 in recent months. He talks of “mistakes of theintifadeh,” according to Israeli intelligence, and issaid to have backed a protest by Palestinian work-ers angry that the recent violence has cost themtheir jobs. Another potential challenger to Arafatis Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen,who is a founding member of Fatah, Arafat’s po-litical movement. “Abu Mazen is sick of Arafat,” asenior Fatah official tells Time. “He has lost hopeof any progress.” π time, july 8, 2002
12 Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures
Name Date ✍WORKSHEET
Leadership in the Middle East1. The cartoons at right offer threeperspectives on leadership in theMiddle East, as personified by Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharonand Palestinian leader YasserArafat. How does each cartoonistportray Sharon and Arafat? Whatcontrasts and similarities do yousee among the three portrayals?
2. In the top cartoon, what point is the cartoonist making aboutSharon’s vision and Arafat’s credibility? What visual clues helpmake this point? What evidencecan you find in the articles onpages 2 through 11 to support orrefute the cartoonist’s argument?Cite specifics.
3. Describe the action taking placein the middle cartoon. What comment is the cartoonist makingon the concept of exile?
4. How is Colin Powell portrayed in the bottom cartoon? In the article on page 10, Michael Duffywrites: “Following two trips to theregion last year to try to quell therising violence between Palestini-ans and Israelis, [Powell] gave up.‘Colin got tired,’ says a veterandiplomat who knows all the players,‘of going over there with nothing in his briefcase.’ ” What does thisstatement mean?
5. In your view, are any of thethree cartoonists taking sides onthe Middle East conflict? If so,which side does each cartoonistsupport?
By MICHAEL WARE/KANDAHAR
General tommy franks, commander of
the U.S. forces in Afghanistan, calls therecent assault on Taliban and al-Qaedaremnants in the Shah-i-Kot Valley an“unqualified and absolute success.” But
he concedes that pockets of resistance remainand promises to go after themunceasingly. The British lastweek pledged to help, commit-ting 1,700 troops to the effort.Who are these holdouts, andwhat are their aims? To find out,Time embarked on a search forsurviving Taliban fighters whorefuse to yield. It required weeksof negotiation with Taliban com-manders, who finally proffered an invitation tomeet with two of them. “They will talk,” said anAfghan contact, “but not in Afghanistan.”
The journey begins in Kandahar on a rainyweekday morning. After a long drive, we reach aPakistani checkpoint. The 4x4 is discarded formotorbikes, on which we travel along back pathsacross the border. Once we get inside Pakistan, acar picks up the travelers and cuts through theslow traffic of the border bazaar. It proceeds alonga back road to the outskirts of town. “There aremany Talibs here,” says a guide. “Everyone knows,but everyone protects them.”
The car stops at a green iron gate at an anony-mous compound. A man called Mullah Palawansteps outside and beckons his guests inside. “Youare welcome,” he says. In a long, high-ceilingedroom where half a dozen men rest on cushions, heis joined by another man, who agrees to be iden-tified only by his titles, Hajji Mullah Sahib, mean-ing, roughly, Honorable Mr. Cleric Sir.
These men are Taliban. Part of an unrepentanthard core, they are hunted in their own country andsupposedly barred from Pakistan and denied accessby the hundreds of troops who guard the border. Yethere they sit, sipping sweet green tea, untroubled,gregarious and masters of their domain. MullahPalawan, who commanded an armored corps inHerat before his flight to Pakistan, has spent the
morning browsing through thebazaar. Hajji Mullah Sahib, oncea Taliban ideologue, passed thetime chatting at home. Bothseem to go about their daily busi-ness without a care in thisbustling gateway to Afghanistan.
Mullah Palawan is a large,jovial man. He tries to keep hisface stern but breaks out in
cheeky smiles when he thinks no one is looking.Hajji Mullah Sahib is a drawn, rakish figure. Con-versation stops when he enters the room. In thepast, his religious scholarship lent authority tothe Taliban. He and others like him from theregime’s theological vanguard preached the right-eousness of Mullah Omar’s government, andthousands listened. They still do in the Pakistanimadrasah, or religious school, where he teaches.
Hajji Mullah Sahib does not so much converseas lecture. Afghanistan’s woes, past and present, heargues, are the fault of malign interference by theSoviets and the Americans. Operation EnduringFreedom, he says, is a pretense for manipulatingAfghan affairs. In a blink he dismisses the argumentthat the U.S.-led coalition aims only to eradicateal-Qaeda. “If the Arabs were terrorists, why didn’tAmerica just catch them?” he asks, instead oflaunching all-out war?
The men in this room, and others who are re-grouping in Afghanistan and Pakistan, boast that
Encountering the Taliban A Time correspondent tracks down unrepentant, hardcoreforces who vow to keep fighting in their crusade against America
A F G H A N I S T A N
In its propaganda fromthe underground,
the Taliban has subtlyshifted tack, redrafting
its cause from a religiousto a nationalist one.
time, april 1, 2002 13
they are preparing to pounce on the U.S. in-vaders, and that they have allies. “Our neighborsare also terrified of the United States, and theywant to make trouble for America,” warns HajjiMullah Sahib. “Now they are sending us money,guns and men.” On this score, he’s right. Iran hasbeen sending supplies and munitions to dis-gruntled Afghan commanders who are not beingpaid by the new government. In Kandahar, theTaliban’s spiritual center, a government com-mander says disaffected elements of Pakistan’sInter-Services Intelligence agency have beencovertly assisting al-Qaeda and Taliban fugitiveswith logistics, escape and safe havens.
The anti-American forces, by various accounts,are also finding support from a coalition of dis-parate groups within Afghanistan. These include theIranian-backed Hezb-i-Islami movement, whichbefore the Taliban came to power was one of themost dangerous factions among the Afghan muja-hedin, and Ittehad-i-Islami, which has a few thou-sand underfunded troops in southern Afghanistan.These groups once opposed the Taliban, but the olddisputes have been sidelined in the face of a com-mon enemy: America and its Afghan allies. AstadAbdul Halim, Ittehad-i-Islami’s Kandahar com-mander, blasts the province’s U.S.-backed governor,Gul Agha Sherzai. “If Sherzai continues the bad actshe is doing now,” he says, “there will be a timevery soon when we will attack.”
The recent Shah-i-Kot offensive, far from de-terring the opposition, has emboldened it. Ap-
plauded in the West as a victory for the interna-tional coalition, the operation has been celebratedby Kandahar Talibs as an American failure. “Howmany bodies are there?” asks a former Talib, mock-ing U.S. claims of a major victory and citing eye-witness accounts of only a few Taliban and al-Qaeda corpses. “With all their power, theAmericans could not capture our fighters,” he says.
If anyone doubts the ardor of grass-roots supportfor the anti-American militancy in southernAfghanistan, Kandahar’s cemetery for al-Qaedafighters bears unequivocal testimony. Hundredsof mourners have descended on the graveyardfrom as far away as Mazar-i-Sharif, Kabul andUruzgan province. What began as daily homageshave grown into all-night vigils. Men, women andchildren sleep by the graves. Devotees recite theKoran throughout the night. The ill and blind flockto the site seeking miracle cures, which manyclaim to receive. Men mumble, repeating scriptureuntil they fall into a trance, swaying and convulsing,talking in tongues. “Do not speak English here,”says a Talib accompanying a Time correspondent.“They will kill you the instant they know you are aforeigner. These people are so angry.”
In its propaganda from the underground, theTaliban has subtly shifted tack, redrafting its causefrom a religious to a nationalist one. Hajji MullahSahib makes sure he hits the buttons. “Thoseworking against America now are not Taliban,” heinsists. “They are Afghan.” Kandahar’s bazaarsreverberate with claims that former Taliban De-
fense Minister Mullah ObaidullahAkhund, who is thought to be in hiding,has issued a secret call to arms. True ornot, the tale is meeting with approval inmany quarters. “For the moment, weneed food and more weapons, but weare willing to fight,” says a former Talib.“When America goes, we will take backKandahar in three days.” π
Questions
1. What does this article reveal about thestatus of the Taliban in April?2. What allies are lending support to theTaliban? What are their shared goals?
A F G H A N I S T A N
14 time, april 1, 2002
By JOHANNA MCGEARY/BAGHDAD
The mad hatter might feel at home in
the Wonderland of Iraq. The day is alreadygrowing hot as lines of ramshackle busesjam the normally emptyhighway to Tikrit, the
rural hometown of SaddamHussein. It’s April 28, Saddam’s65th birthday. Crowds of mili-tary men, sheiks in flowingrobes and farmers in shabbypants spill onto the expansive parade ground Sad-dam has built for special occasions like this.
As the guest of honor arrives, groups of school-girls, including a unit clad in the black face masksof suicide-bomber trainees, perform dances dedi-cated to Saddam’s “pulse of life.” Then an inter-minable line of marchers files through, maybe10,000 strong, singing “Happy year to you, Presi-dent Saddam Hussein, who brought victory to us.”
Trouble is, the man standing high above onthat imposing podium is not Saddam Hussein.It’s Ali Hassan al-Majid, the Saddam intimateforeigners have dubbed “Chemical Ali” for hisrole overseeing the 1988 poison-gas attacks thatkilled thousands of Iraqi Kurds.
Saddam is nowhere in sight for his Tikrit partyor for any of the other parades and cake cuttingsorchestrated across Iraq during the six-day birth-day celebration. More than ever, he is an invisibleruler, his authority wielded from the shadows,where he hides from potential assassins. The birth-day parties were intended to deliver a message toany Iraqi citizen feeling restive, to any foreigngovernment contemplating his overthrow. Theall-powerful puppet master can make his wholenation sing his praises as a blunt reminder: I amstill here. It won’t be easy to get rid of me.
The Bush Administration hopes the hollownessof that birthday scene is a symbol of the true stateof the archenemy’s regime: brittle and rottingfrom within, held together only by force andbribery. The White House has concluded that
Saddam poses a clear and pre-sent danger that must be elim-inated. “He is a dangerous manpossessing the world’s mostdangerous weapons,” PresidentBush has said. “It is incumbentupon freedom-loving nations
to hold him accountable, which is precisely whatthe United States of America will do.”
Beyond Bush’s advisers, objective monitors tooare convinced that Saddam possesses hiddenchemical and biological weapons and is workingfeverishly to build a still elusive nuclear bomb.He’s a serial aggressor. September 11 probablyopened Saddam’s eyes to powerful and unorthodoxmethods of attack. Terrorists want weapons ofmass destruction, and he has them. “The lesson of9/11 for us,” says a senior State Department official,“is you can’t wait around.”
As Bush repeatedly telegraphs his intention tofinish Saddam, the Iraqi leader is not exactly sittingon his hands. “He’s not so naive as to ignore the seriousness of this threat,” says Wamidh Nadhmi, aBaghdad political scientist in contact with theregime. “He knows it would be very difficult forBush to retreat from his declared intent.”
SADDAM’S IRAQFor Saddam, the Gulf War was not a defeat but avictory: though he was evicted from Kuwait, heremained in power. In the decade since the war,Saddam has endured strict economic sanctionsand has evaded U.N. inspections designed toeliminate his weapons of mass destruction.
Inside Saddam’s World The U.S. likes to portray Iraq’s regime as shaky. But Time’s reporting inside Iraq suggests Saddam isn’t losing his grip
I R A Q
time, may 13, 2002 15
≤He is a dangerous man,possessing the world’s most
dangerous weapons.≥-PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
For years, Saddam ruthlesslymilked the suffering of the Iraqipeople to erode the global deter-mination on maintaining the U.N.sanctions. Now he has shifted gearsto meet a different objective: tokeep those same long-sufferingIraqis from rebelling against him.So the taps have opened: more ofthe money from his legal oil salesand illicit oil smuggling, once re-served for the purpose of bribingregime loyalists, is now beingspread around to the populace.
Saddam appears to be prepar-ing for war. Officials of the IraqiNational Congress (i.n.c.), the Lon-don-based, U.S.-funded, main Iraqi-opposition group, and Kurdish in-telligence sources say that for thepast two months, government agen-cies have been conducting prepara-tory exercises, sending top officialsto designated safe locations, for ex-ample, and protecting officialarchives. The sources claim thatthe commanders of the army havebeen reshuffled and that variousmilitary units have been movedaround the country. The i.n.c. saysits sources report that military fac-tories are being dismantled so thatkey components can be hiddenfrom bombing.
Like his hero Stalin, Saddam seesweapons of mass destruction as thegreat equalizers that give him theglobal position he craves. A nukeplus a long-range missile make youa world power. Deadly spores andpoisonous gases make you a fearedone. These are the crown jewels ofhis regime. He sacrificed the well-being of the Iraqi people and bil-lions of dollars in oil revenues tokeep the unconventional weaponshe had before the Gulf War and to
engage in an open-ended process ofacquiring new ones.
Of course, blatantly usingweapons of mass destructionagainst his greatest enemies, theU.S. and Israel, would expose himto a nuclear reprisal that would al-most surely end his rule. But if hecould punish either country andsurvive, he might do it. He mightalso risk supplying terrorists withhis deadliest weapons if he saw away it might enhance his power.
Meanwhile, Saddam is workinghard to undercut international sup-port for a U.S. attack on him by de-ploying his diplomatic weapons.His offer of $25,000 to the family ofevery suicide bomber and everyPalestinian family made homelessby the Israeli assault on the JeninRefugee Camp has won wide ad-miration at home and in the largerArab world. He has burnished hisreputation as the one Arab leaderwho says no to Washington andstands up against Israel.
While others would find the sit-uation desperate, Saddam has al-ways managed to make his waythrough. If the U.S. indeed attacks,his key strategy will be to weatherthe assault, hoping that the worldwill turn against the Americansbefore they succeed in taking himdown. Until that day comes, if itcomes, Saddam will rule on fromthe shadows that protect him froma lifetime’s worth of enemies. Forhim, every birthday that passes isanother glorious victory. π
Questions
1. What does Saddam’s birthdayparty in Tikrit reveal about Iraq?2. How is Saddam seeking to under-cut support for a U.S. attack on him?
I R A Q
16 time, may 13, 2002
By JOHANNA MCGEARY
When case it-02-54 finally opens at
the International War Crimes Tribunalin the Hague this week, it will mark amoment many despaired would nevercome. The Serb strongman and former
President of Yugoslavia who presided over a decadeof mass murder and mayhem across the Balkansseemed untouchable for so long, and then becamealmost forgotten as the world’s attention fixed on anew global villain. Yet Slobodan Milosevic will nowhave to sit each day in a well-lit U.N. courtroom,flanked by two guards, to answer to charges ofcrimes against humanity.
Normal trials follow a prescribed, orderly path.But no one knows what to expect in this one on thelast great crimes of the 20th century—a test case forinternational justice, the first trial of a head ofstate. The prosecution must convict Milosevic notjust in the eyes of three sitting judges but in thecourt of world opinion. Yet never has the Haguetried a defendant so uncooperative. Milosevicseems determined to make the proceedings a spec-tacle of courtroom subversion, refusing to recognizethe tribunal, refusing to enter a plea, refusing toselect defense lawyers, refusing even to wearheadphones to hear the proceedings in Serbian.
In every pretrial appearance, Milosevic has responded with political diatribes. He has labeledthe charges against him “absurd” and “monstrous,”the prosecutor a nato mouthpiece, the court a“retarded 7-year-old.” He has called himself apeacemaker who is on trial to cover up nato
aggression against a sovereign country. The rantshave led the presiding judge, Richard May, to cutoff Milosevic’s microphone. Milosevic has droppedhints that he might stage a grand scene by callinga parade of Western leaders to testify, starting with
former President Bill Clinton and British PrimeMinister Tony Blair. It will be up to the threejudges, who also constitute the jury—Britain’s brisk,outspoken May, Jamaica’s scholarly Patrick Robin-son and South Korea’s quiet O-Gon Kwon—to makesure the whole thing doesn’t descend into farce.
THE CHARGESIt’s worth remembering that for all his destruc-tive desires, Osama bin Laden hasn’t accomplishedcrimes anywhere near as dastardly as those ofwhich Milosevic is accused. From Sept. 21, 1991,when Serb paramilitary shot 11 Croat civilians inDalj and buried their bodies in a mass grave, toMay 25, 1999, when, during the forced evacua-tion of the Kosovo village of Dubrava, Serb forceskilled eight ethnic Albanians, the former Presi-dent is charged with responsibility for crimes thatresulted in the deaths of 300,000 non-Serbs and theexpulsion of millions from their homelands.
In the legal terms of the three indictments, thatadds up to 66 counts of genocide, crimes againsthumanity, violations of the rules of war and gravebreaches of the Geneva Convention during thedecade of wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo. The159 pages of charges catalog a shattering litany ofpersecution, extermination, murder, torture, in-humane acts, wanton destruction, deportationand forcible transfer. The indictments accuse
Will Milosevic Get His? He refuses to accept it, but he is in the dock at last, accused of atrocities far worse than those of Osama bin Laden
S E R B I A
time, february 18, 2002 17
THE TRIBUNAL Established by a U.N. Security Councilvote in 1993, this is the first international body for the prosecution of war crimes since World War II
π All U.N. members are obliged to cooperate fully. There isno trial in absentia and no death penalty. Maximum sentenceis life in prison.
π So far, 44 indicted suspects are in detention at the Hague;30 are still at large. Trials have produced 26 guilty verdictsand 5 acquittals.
Milosevic of orchestrating a “joint criminal en-terprise” to cleanse non-Serbs from vast swaths ofterritory to leave an ethnically pure nation.
There is only one formal count of genocide—inBosnia: it’s the gravest offense on the war-crimesbooks but the hardest to prove. Prosecutors mustshow that Milosevic knowingly intended to wipeout ethnic or religious groups—Bosnia’s Croats andMuslims. “Unless you’ve got an accused saying,‘Yes, I had the intent, and I had the ability to do it,’”says deputy prosecutor Graham Blewitt, “you canonly submit evidence that will enable the judges toinfer that’s what was in the accused’s mind.” Mostof the charges fit under the less demanding “crimesagainst humanity” statutes. The maximum sen-tence is the same for all the charges: life in prison.
Originally, the jurists in Trial Chamber III want-ed to try Milosevic first on the Kosovo campaignand later for Bosnia and Croatia. But an appealscourt two weeks ago accepted chief prosecutorCarla Del Ponte’s argument that all three werepart of “one strategy, one scheme” and that wit-nesses, once revealed, might be intimidated not toappear again. So there will be one trial, expected toconclude within two years.
THE PROSECUTORS’ STRATEGYYears of investigation have turned up hundredsof witnesses and loads of exhibits that go far beyondcircumstantial constructs. Investigators were ableto fish for more after Milosevic’s regime fell inOctober 2000 and the new government let theminside Yugoslavia for the first time. Though the
investigators complain they got more obstructionthan cooperation, no one could cover up one in-criminating new find: the bodies of Kosovo Al-banian victims listed in one indictment were un-earthed in mass graves near Belgrade last year.
The prosecuting team also has the Swiss-bornDel Ponte, who is one tough lawyer. The CosaNostra mobsters whom Del Ponte, as Switzerland’sattorney general, pursued on money-launderingcharges tried to blow her up; the banker gnomes inZurich whose secrecy she penetrated trembledbefore her.
The trick is to prove the leader of a nation is theintellectual author of crimes even if he did not lit-erally have blood on his hands. The testimonyfrom some 50 victims is likely to be compelling. Butthe most damning words may well come from the“insiders”: an estimated 20 high-level political andsecurity bosses with firsthand knowledge of whatMilosevic said and did. What Del Ponte needs toprove is Milosevic’s “superior authority”: that he ex-ercised control over the perpetrators of atrocities,knew or had reason to know crimes were beingcommitted and did nothing to stop them.
THE DEFENSE’S STRATEGYIf past appearances offer any clue, Milosevic willclaim he was just defending his country, just fight-ing terrorists like the U.S. is now, just sufferingfrom nato aggression. If the Serb leader presentsno legal defense, prosecutors believe they canmake a swift case for conviction that is able towithstand appeal. But that would present its own
problem. “It will be difficult to explain thelack of adversarial picture that people ex-pect in court,” says Dicker. “For that reason,it poses a real challenge to the judges: thatthe trial be fair to Mr. Milosevic and beseen as being fair.” For the credibility of thetribunal, that is key. More than anything,the trial and its verdict need to convincethe world’s victims and villains alike that inthe end, justice can be done.
Questions
1. Of what crimes is Milosevic accused?2. How has he responded to these charges?
S E R B I A
18 time, february 18, 2002
By JAMES CARNEY/WASHINGTON
Early in his presidential campaign,
George W. Bush was on a four-mile runwith a reporter when he began ruminatingon the nature of Vladimir Putin, the for-mer kgb lieutenant colonel who had be-
come Russia’s President. “Anyone who tells youthey’ve figured Putin out,” Bush said, “is just blow-ing smoke.” Months later, on the eve of Bush’s in-auguration, his soon-to-be National Security Ad-viser, Condoleezza Rice, predicted a gloomy futurefor U.S.-Russian relations. “There are a lot of badthings happening in Russia now,” she said. “Wedon’t have any reason to trust Putin.”
So much for history. This week, as Bush andRice escape the din of post-September 11 ques-tions and recriminations and arrive in Moscowfor what will be his first-ever visit to Russia, thePresident will hail the leader he once viewed withso much suspicion as a trusted friend—and Russiaas a close American ally. He and Putin will sign atreaty committing both nations to slash their strate-gic nuclear arsenals from 6,000 warheads to amaximum of 2,200. Then the Russian President willgive his American buddy a tour of St. Petersburg,Putin’s hometown. The following week they will betogether again, this time in Rome, where they areexpected to sign an agreement giving Russia akind of junior partnership in nato, the cold warmilitary alliance created to confront the Sovietthreat. Rice, who shares her boss’s newfound opti-mism about Russia and its leader, fairly gusheswhen she describes the transformation. “To seethe kind of relationship that Presidents Bush andPutin have developed and to see Russia firmly an-chored in the West,” she told Time last week, “that’sreally a dream of 300 years, not just of the post-coldwar era.”
That dream, if it comes true, holds great promisefor both countries. Warmer ties have already giventhe Bush Administration more freedom to pursuemissile defense, a partner in its war on terrorismand the possibility that Russia will go along withBush’s plan to try to topple Saddam Hussein. Wash-ington also hopes that Russia, which produces 10%of the world’s oil, can help ease U.S. dependence onMiddle East supplies. Russia in turn has won notonly closer ties to nato but also tacit acceptance ofits war on the rebel Chechen republic and thepromise of greater economic integration with theWest. Disputes remain between Moscow andWashington—chief among them, Russia’s allegedaid to Iran’s nuclear-weapons program—but rela-tions are better now than at almost any other timesince World War II.
Our New Best Friend? George Bush heads to Moscow to complete an arms deal. The inside story of how he decided Vladimir Putin was his kind of guy
R U S S I A
time, may 27, 2002 19
WHAT DO WE WANT FROM THEM?OIL Russia produces 10% of the world’s oil, and its reserves could help reduce U.S. dependence on theMiddle East.
IRAQ The Soviets tacitly backed the U.S. in the 1991Gulf War. Now Bush wants Putin’s blessing on efforts totopple Saddam Hussein.
TERRORISM Washington hopes to build onMoscow’s help with the war in Afghanistan. Russia provided intelligence and acquiesced to U.S. troops in its backyard.
WHAT DO THEY WANT FROM US?NATO Cooperation with the Western alliance bringsacceptance in other international groups. Long-termpossibility: full NATO membership.
CHECHNYA Moscow sees its struggle to suppressthe secessionists as part of the war on terrorism andwants that view legitimized by Washington.
INVESTMENT To save Russia’s economy, Putin believes he must integrate with the Western world.
That would not be so surprising if foreign-poli-cy experts in the U.S. and Europe had not beenwarning as recently as a year ago that Bush’s poli-cies were destined to provoke another arms raceand launch a new cold war. When Bush began hiscampaign in 1999, his views on Russia were drawnmainly from Rice, a Sovietologist who worked in hisfather’s White House and who served as the TexasGovernor’s foreign-policy tutor. Bush shared Rice’spessimism about Russia’s progress in the 1990sand echoed her critique of Bill Clinton’s overly“romantic” image of Boris Yeltsin as the embodi-ment of democratic reform. Rice even suggested in1999 that U.S. policy should seek to “contain” and“quarantine” Russia.
Bush’s advisers say the key to his attitude ad-justment regarding Putin was the two leaders’ firstencounter, in Ljubljana, Slovenia, last June; Bushdecided within two hours of meeting him thatPutin was a man he could trust. Bush’s remarks—“I looked the man in the eye,” he said, and “I wasable to get a sense of his soul”—elicited snickersfrom journalists and grimaces from his advisers.
Bush’s effusions notwithstanding, the lovefest inLjubljana was more a product of strategy thanchemistry. At a White House briefing with outsideexperts before the summit, Bush telegraphed anintense desire for his first encounter with Putin togo smoothly. In the first few months after taking of-fice, Bush was under constant assault by European
allies for his unilateralist foreign policy, includinghis snubbing of Moscow. Among the signs of dis-respect: the ouster from the U.S. of 50 allegedRussian diplomat-spies in March 2001, the five-month delay before setting a first Bush-Putinmeeting, and the threat, since carried out, to with-draw unilaterally from the 1972 U.S.-Soviet Anti-ballistic Missile Treaty in order to build a nation-al missile-defense system. Some veterans of thesenior Bush’s Administration lectured the Presidentand his advisers that Russia still mattered andshould not be ignored. By June, says a current adviser, “it was beginning to sink in.”
Putin had his own agenda. Not long after hetook over from Yeltsin in late 1999, the new Russ-ian President began making overtures to the West,first to Blair and then to nato. Faced with an eco-nomic crisis, Putin believed he had no choice butto speed Russia’s integration into the world econ-omy. To succeed, he would have to win over theleader of the world’s only “hyperpower,” as theU.S. is sometimes called in Russia. Before Ljubl-jana, says a former aide, Putin “devoured an enor-mous amount of information on Bush and every-thing related to him.” He knew that Bush put greatstock in his ability to judge people face to face andthat charming Bush would pay diplomatic divi-dends. Like the former spy he is, Putin set out forSlovenia determined, it seems, to play the charac-ter his mission required.
Another thing Putin wanted—America’s acqui-escence to his military campaign in Chechnya—inmany ways has already been received. Because ofRice’s conviction that U.S.-Russian relations shouldfocus on strategic issues instead of internal affairs,the Administration downgraded Chechnya as apoint of contention. “Putin wants us to legitimatewhat he’s doing in Chechnya, to equate it with thewar on terrorism,” says another colleague fromRice’s days at Stanford. “He wants Bush to come toMoscow and say, ‘We’re in this war together.’” π
Questions
1. What is Bush’s view of Vladimir Putin? What isthe basis for this view?2. What changes in U.S.-Russian relations havecome about in recent months?
R U S S I A
20 time, may 27, 2002
1,700 to 2,200 each by 2012
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000U.S.
’76 ’86 ’96’66’561946 2012
U.S.S.R./Russia
Note: By 1951 the Soviet Union had a handful of nuclear weapons but lacked delivery vehicles such as intercontinental ballistic missilesSources: Natural Resources Defense Council, Arms Control Association
COMPARING NUCLEAR ARSENALSDeployed and strategic U.S. and Russian warheads
By ALEX PERRY/SRINAGAR
Sometimes it seems nobody wants peace
in Kashmir. When two masked gunmendressed in Indian police uniforms gunneddown Abdul Gani Lone at a rally in theleafy summer capital of
Srinagar last week, the list of sus-pects was notable for includingalmost everyone. Some naturallypointed the finger at India and itssecret service: for decades Lonehad staunchly opposed Indianrule in Kashmir. But the 70-year-old former lawyer had modifiedhis stance in the past two years,and that had survivors, including Lone’s son Sajjad,pinning the assassination on Pakistan, its powerfulintelligence agency the Inter-Services Intelligence(isi), and Kashmir’s Islamic guerrillas. Sajjad, whosucceeds his father in Kashmir’s most powerfulseparatist alliance, even wondered whether hisfather’s allies were involved. Lone had been evolv-ing into that Kashmiri rarity: a man pushing forpeace. Nearly everyone agrees that’s why he died.
And with his death, the clouds of war grewimmediately darker. Last week in India and Pak-istan—and most concentratedly in Kashmir—thetalk was not of whether there will be conflict,but when and what form it will take. Since 1947the South Asian neighbors have squabbled overthe lush Himalayan foothills; and since 1989 morethan 35,000 people have lost their lives in a sep-aratist rebellion, partly fueled by Pakistan. Lone’sdeath followed a militant attack at an army campin Jammu the week before that left 31 dead, andIndia declared it had lost patience with Pakistan’s“cross-border terrorism.” Prime Minister Atal Be-hari Vajpayee told some of the 750,000 Indian
troops massed with heavy artillery and short-range ballistic missiles all along the western frontto prepare for a “decisive battle.” He used thesame alarming phrase a day later before the civil-ian press. Vajpayee ordered thousands morejawans, or soldiers, to the 3,000-kilometer-long
border with Pakistan and movedfive warships to the Arabian Sea.Pakistan responded by pulling4,000 men out of peacekeepingduties in Sierra Leone and sta-tioning them along its easternfrontier. It is considering with-drawing thousands more of itssoldiers from the coalition huntfor al-Qaeda fugitives on the
Afghanistan border. On Saturday, it performed aprovocative test of a medium-range Ghauri missile.With mutual nuclear annihilation as the ultimateescalation, the subcontinent once again regained itsstatus, in Bill Clinton’s phrase, as “the most dan-gerous place on earth.”
Kashmir is the locus of that terrible peril be-cause, for most of the players, continuing conflictworks. It works for the militants, who have foundan escape from grinding poverty in the gun andthe cash and prestige it attracts. That’s true ofboth the indigenous Kashmiri militants and the“guest mujahedin” who come in from Pakistan,veterans of isi-run training camps in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and former Taliban-ruled ter-ritory in Afghanistan, who subscribe to the sameideal of waging a purifying jihad.
Trouble in Kashmir also works for Pakistan.While President Pervez Musharraf publicly denounces militant incursions from his side ofthe border, it would be political suicide for him todenounce their aims. Nor does the Pakistani Pres-ident’s rhetoric blind anyone to the memory that
War Clouds in KashmirAs tensions rise between India and Pakistan, the subcontinent regains its status as “the most dangerous place on earth”
K A S H M I R
In India and Pakistan,the talk is not
of whether there will be conflict, but when and
what form it will take.
time, june 10, 2002 21
in 1999 he commanded the operation to seizestrategic passes in the mountains of Kargil on theIndian side of the Line of Control (loc). Moreover,Musharraf’s announcements of a crackdown on themilitants ring more than a touch hollow. While fiveinsurgent groups have been banned and bankaccounts have been frozen, some of the arrestedleaders have been freed, the bank accounts arereported to have been emptied before they wereclosed and the incursions and attacks inside Indianterritory continue, including a December attack onParliament in New Delhi in which 14 people died.
Lately, all-out war has also become increasing-ly attractive to India. Vajpayee’s limping, pro-HinduBharatiya Janata Party (bjp) government is onlytoo aware of the restorative powers of a good fight.War talk and fulminations against Muslim mili-tancy have successfully rid India’s newspapers ofreports of the excesses of the bjp’s hard-line sup-porters in Gujarat, where more than 1,000 Muslimshave been killed in a 10-week religious pogrom.Conflict and crisis also allow India to ignore the av-erage Kashmiri’s main complaints: the nagging in-justice of Indian rule, rigged elections, rampant of-ficial corruption, police torture and murders bysoldiers. And with the U.S. enthusiastically prose-
cuting its war on terror in Afghanistan, New Delhifeels the time is right for its own crackdown. InKashmir, it is: even Kashmiri militants, who desireindependence from India, agree that their guestmujahedin are as nasty as they are unwelcome.“They are trying to Talibanize Kashmir,” says activistMohammed Kaleem. “Their only objective is todestroy India.” Mehbooba Mufti, vice president ofthe pro-India People’s Democratic Party, says the jihadis are giving Vajpayee’s government exactly thejustification it needs: “They always want to keep theKashmir pot boiling.”
For now, Pakistan says it is attempting to placateits neighbor by targeting Islamic militants on its soil.Late last week, diplomats were indicating thatIndia was considering giving Pakistan one lastchance. But like India, Pakistan too has a limit to itspatience. “No matter what Musharraf does, it willnever be enough for India,” says one Westerndiplomat. As Abdul Gani Lone discovered lastweek, peace is seldom popular in Kashmir. π
Questions
1. Why are war clouds gathering in Kashmir?2. What are the opinions of President Musharrafand Prime Minister Vajpayee?
K A S H M I R
22 time, june 10, 2002
LINE OF CONTROL
P A K I S T A N
C H I N A
I N D I A
HI
MA
LA
YA
S
TA J I K I S TA N
IND
US
RIVE
R
K A S H M I R
50 mi.50
Sources: AP, U. S. Defense Intelligence Agency
TIME Map by Ed GabelText by Laura Bradford
UNDEFINED
Border claimed byPakistan
Borderclaimed byIndia
Controlled by China, claimed
by India
AZAD KASHMIRControlled by Pakistan,
claimed by India
JAMMU AND KASHMIR
Controlled by India, claimed by PakistanIslamabad
Jalalabad
An additional
500,0008Indian troops and
320,0008Pakistani troops face each other
along the rest of the border
180,0008Pakistani troops
6,0008Pakistani troops
patrol the Afghanistan
border; some may be moved east to Kashmir
250,0008Indian troops
AF
GH
AN
I STAN
PATH TO WARMore than 1 million troops stand toe-to-toe along the 1,800-mile India-Pakistan border, with both sides saying they will fight, if necessary. It would not take much to light this tinderbox. Experts believe another terrorist attack by Kashmiri separatists could lead India to retaliate against rebel training camps in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Pakistan almost surely would respond in kind, perhaps diverting Indian forces with strikes along the Pakistan-India border to the south. From there the battle could conceivably escalate to a nuclear conflict, with devastating consequences: a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report estimates that full-scale nuclear strikes could kill as many as 12 million and injure another 7 million
INDIAPAKISTAN
CHINA
Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures 23
Name Date ✍WORKSHEET
The Kashmir Conflict: Analyzing Two Sides of a Controversy“War Clouds in Kashmir” on pages 21 and 22 describes the escalating tensions in the disputedregion of Kashmir. How evenly is military force distributed in this region? And in what waysdoes ongoing conflict actually benefit both India and Pakistan? Deepen your understanding ofthe Kashmir conflict by using facts from the article and accompanying map to fill in the spacesin the chart below. Then answer the questions at the bottom of this page.
ISSUE INDIA PAKISTAN
According to themap on page 22,how many troopsdoes each countryhave in Kashmir?
What steps haseach nation takento prepare forwar?
The writer statesthat “continuing conflict works” forboth sides in theKashmir conflict. In what specific ways does conflict benefit each nation?
FOR DISCUSSION OR WRITING
1. Review the notes you made in the chart above. In your view, is one nation at an advantageover the other in the Kashmir conflict? Why or why not?
2. What predictions can you make about events likely to occur in Kashmir? Explain the basisfor each prediction.
3. What role do you think the U.S. should play in this controversy?
24 time, february 18, 2002
By FRANK GIBNEY JR.
When junichiro koizumi was invited
to Camp David one day last June, theJapanese Prime Minister brought alonghis baseball glove, and the two ball-playing leaders of the
world’s most powerful economieshad a mutually admiring game ofcatch by the pool. This week, asGeorge W. Bush flies to Tokyo,the first stop in a one-week Asiantour that includes Beijing andSeoul, he has to be wondering ifit’s time to play hardball. Despitehis bold promises of reformwhen he took office 10 monthsago, Koizumi has accomplishedlittle. Japan’s decade-long eco-nomic slide is only picking upspeed, and Bush Administration officials are con-cerned that further inaction in Tokyo may triggeran economic crisis with global reverberations.
Yes, we’ve heard tales of Japan’s looming eco-nomic Armageddon before. But Washington isworried that the fallout from Japan’s malaise couldhamper a U.S. recovery. Worse, there’s no quick-fixoption. The world’s second-largest economy, Japanlabors under the globe’s highest level of publicdebt—140% of gdp. Across the nation, bankruptciesand unemployment are soaring. Practically every-thing else—stock values, consumer prices, confi-dence—is in free fall. The biggest crisis of all isthe yen. With the Bank of Japan printing money tooffset a liquidity crisis, the currency is sliding fast.It hit 134 to the dollar last week, a 15% declinesince a year ago. The decline has prompted cries offoul from U.S. manufacturers over the competitiveedge a weak currency gives Japanese products.
But an equal concern is that an ever weaker yenwill force devaluations throughout Asia, worseningtrade tensions everywhere. Says Kenneth Cour-tis, Goldman Sachs Asia vice chairman: “It is nowreally important to get Japan back on track eco-nomically, because their problems are about to
become ours.”Bush is unlikely to bash Koizu-
mi in public. In keeping with hischummy, fraternal approach tofellow leaders, he is expected in-stead to toast Japan’s help in thewar on terror. But privately, Bushand his aides will try to persuadethe Japanese to move quickly toavoid catastrophe. “We’re notgoing to tell them how to reversedeflation,” says a senior Treasuryofficial. “But we’ll certainly tellthem they need to.” The most
important—and toughest—message will be thatKoizumi must force Japan’s insolvent banks towrite off more non-performing loans before the na-tion’s estimated $5 trillion mountain of public debtcrushes the economy. Says a top Administration of-ficial: “There needs to be a sense of hurry-up.”
Here’s why: Although Bush won’t see much ofit, he is visiting a Japan that is being shaken to itsroots by a decade of economic decline. The excessand hubris that once bought Rockefeller Centerand Pebble Beach golf courses have been re-placed by a growing malaise. Joblessness, bank-ruptcy, crime and suicide, once rare in Japan,are now just average headlines. In the recession-ravaged hot-springs resort town of Yufuin, citizensare hedging their futures by resorting to bartertrade. Taxi rides, sake and even hospital bills canbe paid for with a local scrip called the yufu.What backs it? Locals do odd jobs in return for
Time For Hardball? President Bush fears that Japan’s economy, weakened bya decade of decline, could pull the rest of the world down too
J A P A N
Japan’s decade-long economic slide is pickingup speed, and the Bush
Administration is concerned that further inaction in Tokyo may trigger an economic
crisis with global reverberations.
time, february 18, 2002 25
yufu. “Our wealth is slipping away,” moans EisukeSakakibara, a former Vice Minister in the once all-powerful Ministry of Finance.
This is the moment Japan watchers have longfeared. Although the country is enduring its fourthrecession since 1990, government largesse hasprevented most citizens from feeling the pain.These days the debt crisis is squeezing almosteveryone. In Tokyo’s parks, permanent commu-nities of homeless live under standard-issue bluetents. As for homeowners, real estate values havedeclined to 1982 levels, which means houses noware often worth less than their mortgages.
In a land that once guaranteed employment forlife, no job is secure. In a recentKyodo News survey, 70 of 100Japanese business leaders saidthey plan to cut wages this year.Wide-eyed men walk the sub-ways begging for money. help
me, the signs around their necksread, restructured. That’sJapan’s euphemism for “fired.”
The worse things get inJapan, the harder it is for a leader like Koizumi toget anything done. Although he cruised into office10 months ago as the crusading anti-establish-mentarian who would truly reform Japan, thedashing, outspoken Prime Minister with the fine-ly tuned coif is in trouble. When he fired popularForeign Minister Makiko Tanaka last month underpressure from anti-reform conservatives, his ap-proval rating plunged 20% from last year’s high of80%. As confidence in his leadership sagged, theNikkei stock average hit an 18-year low. “If hewouldn’t support her, it’s unlikely he’ll make anyother bold moves,” concludes Masatoshi Sato, asenior strategist at Mitzuho Investors Securitiesin Tokyo.
Koizumi’s challenge is to orchestrate anotherbailout of Japan’s banks (the fifth since 1998) whileforcing them to call in nonperforming loans. Forfour years, Washington has been urging Japan to re-solve its banking woes by setting up a governmentbailout fund, as the U.S. did during its savings-and-loan crisis in the 1980s. But Japan’s bank de-bacle dwarfs the S&L crisis in both size and polit-
ical complexity. Real reform means unravelingdecades of interlocking commitments blessed by asystem that rewards support with favors.
It is not that Koizumi has done nothing. Analystsapplaud his decision to guarantee only the first$75,000 in new time deposits, beginning April 1.The regulation is a warning that Tokyo cannotback the status quo forever. Still, as bankruptciesand layoffs increase, it’s harder to introduce toughreform measures. “They are writing off loans, butthe bad loans are growing faster,” says C. FredBergsten, director of the Institute for Internation-al Economics in Washington.
Made in Japan? That may be a disappearingconcept. These days most ofJapan’s manufacturing jobs aremigrating to China, where qual-ity is high and labor is cheap.Sony, for instance, makes all itsfirst-generation PlayStationsthere—about 7 million of themlast year—and has plans to movePS2 manufacturing to China aswell. Nearly half of Toshiba’s 45
plants are now in China, cranking out air condi-tioners, mobile phones, TVs and whatever the nexthot product is likely to be. In an astonishing twist,Japanese engineers and factory managers are lin-ing up at employment agencies in search of jobs inChina. “People here will take a job there eventhough the pay is half what they were making,”explains Tomoko Hata, a manager at PaHuma, aprivate employment agency that finds jobs in Asiafor unemployed Japanese. “They’re desperate.”
Abroad, the overarching fear is that Japan’s woeswill ripple through the rest of the world, triggeringa financial crisis of unprecedented proportions.When its economy dipped precipitately in 1997,Japan allowed the yen to devalue, eventually desta-bilizing currencies in the rest of Asia and touchingoff the December 1997 financial crisis. In Beijingand elsewhere, leaders are determined to avoid asimilar contagion this time around. π
Questions
1. Describe the economic challenges facing Japan.2. Why is Bush concerned about Japan’s economy?
J A P A N
Yen per dollar*
100
125
75
150
175
LOSING STRENGTH
1990 1995 2000
133.5
The Japanese yen is at its weakest since 1998 and is expected to get even weaker
*Monthly average price. Source: Pacific Rate Exchange Service
Whipping UpA Fight House Whips Pelosi and Delay, battling each other for control ofCongress, turn out to be two of a kind
By DOUGLAS WALLER/WASHINGTON
When the republican congressmen
meeting in a basement conference roomat the Capitol last October got word thatDemocrats had just elected Nancy Pelosi
as minority whip, they broke into applause. Theyweren’t cheering because the California Repre-sentative had made history by becoming the firstwoman to win a top leadership postin the House. Many of the Repub-licans, including Speaker DennisHastert, considered the San Fran-cisco Congresswoman a lightweightwhose liberal voting record wouldhelp them paint the Democrats asout of synch with moderate voters.
One key Republican who did notjoin in the cheers that morning wasTom DeLay, who for almost eightyears has been majority whip, theHouse g.o.p.’s top enforcer and votecounter. The conservative Texanknew his new adversary was a mediagenic andrelentless political organizer, a firebrand who couldinvigorate her party’s liberal base just as he does theRepublican right. “She’s a worthy opponent,” saysDeLay. “I’ve always sort of liked her. But, obviously,I want to beat her at every turn.”
This year Pelosi and DeLay will be battling eachother not just on the House floor but also across thecountry, as they spearhead their parties’ respectivecampaigns for control of the House. It promises tobe a bruising fight. The Democrats need to pick uponly six seats to take back the House, and history is
on their side: the party of the President—even apopular one like George W. Bush—typically losesHouse seats during a midterm election. Bush’shigh poll numbers have so far created “no coattaileffect,” admits Virginia Representative Tom Davis,who chairs the National Republican Congression-al Committee. Democrats are looking to drawblood on domestic issues, where they think Bush isvulnerable. Last week, House Democratic leaderDick Gephardt pounced on a White House pro-posal to raise interest rates that college studentspay for federal loans (Bush quickly backed awayfrom the idea), while Pelosi called Bush’s educationbudget “$4.2 billion short of the promise of leav-ing no child behind.”
But the rebounding economy and a lack of otherrallying issues could help the Republicans. Con-gressional redistricting, which is mandated everydecade in accordance with the new Census count,is still under way, but so far the redrawn lines ap-pear to favor most House incumbents. No more
than two dozen of the 435 Houseraces may really be up for grabs, andmany of them are in Republican-friendly areas in the South and Mid-west. DeLay predicts the g.o.p. willdefy history and actually increaseits majority in November.
Pelosi is working hard to preventthat prediction from coming true.During a House Democratic retreat,she brought in her team of consul-tants to lecture party bosses on howto win back the chamber. Organizebetter at the grass roots, they said,
and stop wasting dollars on congressional districtswhere the Democrat has no chance of winning. Sothe party is targeting millions of dollars on racesagainst vulnerable g.o.p. incumbents in such statesas Connecticut and Iowa. “I have a reptilian ap-proach,” says Pelosi. “You have to be very cold-blooded in how you allocate resources.” π
Questions
1. Who are the House Whips? Their parties?2. What factors could help Republicans and Demo-crats in the 2002 midterm elections?
26 time, may 13, 2002
C O N G R E S S
The Democrats needto pick up only six
seats to take back theHouse, and history is on their side: the
party of the Presidenttypically loses House
seats during amidterm election.
Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures 27
Name Date ✍WORKSHEET
DeLay vs. Pelosi: A Study in ContrastsAs “Whipping Up a Fight” on page 28 makes clear, Tom DeLay and Nancy Pelosi have similarjobs—but markedly different approaches to those jobs, and to the issues that legislators of bothparties are currently grappling with. Visit DeLay and Pelosi’s websites to learn more aboutwhere each lawmaker stands on several vital issues. Use the Search feature and News sectionof each site to fill in the chart below. Then answer the questions at the bottom of this page.
DELAY’S STANCE PELOSI’S STANCEISSUE www.majoritywhip.house.gov http://democraticwhip.house.gov
Taxes
Social Security
Environment
Now select two ISSUE: ___________________ ISSUE: ___________________more issues—one of particularconcern to DeLay and another of particular concern to Pelosi—andnote where eachlawmakerstands on them.
FOR DISCUSSION OR WRITING
1. What are the central contrasts you noted between DeLay and Pelosi? Where do the two appear to have similar philosophies?
2. If you could pose a question to both Pelosi and DeLay, what would you ask? What answerdo you predict each lawmaker would give? Explain.
28 time, july 8, 2002
By DANIEL KADLEC
Soon after worldcom ceo john sidg-
more revealed the most sweeping book-keeping deception in history, a copy of hisinternal memo on the scandal was e-mailedto folks around the telecom industry. Under
his predecessor, Sidgmore announced, WorldComhad overstated a key measure of earnings by morethan $3.8 billion over five quarters, dating back toJanuary 2001. The company’s reported profits, itturned out, were really losses.
As WorldCom—once big and rich enough toswallow No. 2 long-distance carrier mci—strugglesto survive, it is laying off 17,000 workers. Its stock,which peaked at $64.50 three yearsago, stopped trading last Tuesdayat 83¢, having all but wiped outemployee retirement accounts. Theplunge in WorldCom shares hascost investors upwards of $175 bil-lion—nearly three times what waslost in the implosion of Enron.WorldCom is not yet financiallybankrupt, but it’s clear that it—likea fat slice of corporate America—has been ethically bankrupt foryears. We’re only now getting a lookat the red ink on the moral balance sheets, andnew revelations of malfeasance in one companyafter another are sending shocks around the globe.
The dollar is falling. Stocks are in a swoon. For-eigners are calling home capital. Corporate insid-ers are dumping shares by the bucketful. Individ-uals are redeeming mutual-fund shares. Pensionfunds are getting socked. Banks are taking loan-portfolio hits. This is all a direct result of the spread-ing collapse of confidence in U.S. companies andthe executives and board members who run them—
a crisis that threatens to untrack a fragile eco-nomic recovery. Speaking at an economic summitin Canada, President Bush said he was “concernedabout the economic impact of the fact that thereare some corporate leaders who have not upheldtheir responsibility.” The Federal Reserve seemsconcerned as well. At a meeting last week, it left in-terest rates unchanged—signaling that the recov-ery isn’t firmly rooted. Some economists speculatethat the Fed will soon cut rates to guard against a“double-dip” recession.
In the context of recent developments, PresidentBush’s musings on ceo responsibility are as un-derstated as the expenses in WorldCom’s financialstatements, the flashpoint for new worries of wide-
spread accounting abuse. World-Com said that an internal reviewuncovered huge hidden expenses—mostly line charges that it pays toother telecom carriers—that werecharacterized as capital investments,a gimmick that boosted its profits.
The company fired its longtimechief financial officer, Scott Sulli-van, 40, and is turning over its find-ings to the Securities and ExchangeCommission. The sec has filed fraudcharges and is launching an investi-
gation—as is the Justice Department, at least twocongressional committees and the state of Missis-sippi, where WorldCom is based. All current andformer employees, along with WorldCom’s ex–accounting firm, Arthur Andersen, have been ordered to refrain from Enron-like paper shredding.Investigators are especially eager to hear fromWorldCom founder Bernie Ebbers, who resignedas ceo in April, not long after it was revealedthat he owed the company $366 million in low-interest loans.
WorldCon Nailed for the biggest bookkeeping deception in history, a fallengiant gives investors another reason to doubt corporate integrity
B U S I N E S S
The plunge in WorldCom shareshas cost investors
upwards of $175 billion—nearly
three times whatwas lost in the
implosion of Enron.
In the same week that the veil was lifted fromWorldCom’s books, Xerox restated $6.4 billion inrevenues dating to 1997. The amount turned out tobe more than triple what investors had expectedand sparked a 13% sell-off of Xerox’s stock.
Martha Stewart, meanwhile, faced fresh doubtsabout her explanation of why, after buying stock ina drug company run by a close friend, she soldher shares just ahead of bad news about the com-pany’s cancer drug. Stewart, recently appointed adirector of the New York Stock Exchange, denieswrongdoing, but shares in her Martha StewartOmnimedia have declined 40% in the past monthover fears of damage to her image.
Yet this scandal sharply raises the stakes. WhenEnron filed for bankruptcy in December, it em-ployed 28,000, of whom 12,600 have been let go.WorldCom employs 80,000 and will eliminate afifth of those jobs almost immediately. The Enron-stock meltdown wiped out $67 billion of share-holder wealth—less than half what WorldCom in-vestors have lost.
The losers include pension funds and mutual-fund investors across the country. And, as at Enron,WorldCom’s 401(k) plan was full of company stock,socking employees with greatly diminished savingsjust when they are likely to need them the most.Says John Alexander, 31, a former WorldCom ben-efits manager: “Everything they ever told us was,‘We’re making money hand over fist.’” Alexanderlost $180,000, a large chunk of his life’s savings.
The developments at WorldCom suggest thataccounting games may be more pervasive thanwe had thought. With Enron, the tricks involved
complicated partnerships, off-the-books debt andhedging techniques that made the firm’s financialresults difficult to assess even for pros. It seemedunlikely that anything so complex could be wide-spread. But with WorldCom, as House FinancialServices Committee chairman Mike Oxley says, itlooks like “good old-fashioned fraud.”
How, exactly, did WorldCom cook its books? Bytreating routine expenses as capital investments.Normal operating expenses must be subtractedfrom a company’s revenues in the year they occur.But capital expenditures can be subtracted fromrevenues a little at a time over many years. Inthe short term, that lets money flow to the bottomline and boosts financial results. It’s the oldesttrick in the book, and mind-numbingly simple.Dennis Beresford teaches Accounting 101 at theUniversity of Georgia and says what happened atWorldCom is “plain vanilla” trickery that he cov-ers on the second day of class.
Yet WorldCom’s auditor—Arthur Andersen, thefirm convicted of obstructing justice in the Enroncase—somehow missed it. Andersen, which waspaid $4.4 million a year to certify that WorldCom’sbooks were honest, says WorldCom cfo Sullivannever handed over the material Andersen asked for.Scoffs analyst Patrick Comack of the brokerageGuzman & Co.: “That’s like a police officer sayingthe criminal didn’t turn himself in.” π
Questions
1. How does the WorldCom scandal compare tothe Enron meltdown? 2. How did WorldCom “cook its books”?
time, july 8, 2002 29
B U S I N E S S
The Rise and Fall of WorldCom
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
$70
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002Sources: Bloomberg, AP, The Wall Street Journal
LDDS changes its name to WorldCom with Bernard Ebbers as CEO
Merges with MFS Communications
Merges with CompuServe
Merges with MCIThe Justice Department bars a merger with Sprint, citing antitrust concerns
Internal audit discovers that more than$3.8 billionin expenses had been fraudulently disguised
SEC filescivil fraud charges. Justice Department launches criminal probe
Peak price: $64.50
After WorldCom discloses $366 million inloans and guarantees to Ebbers, he resigns. John Sidgmore becomes CEO
Last price: 83¢
30 time, may 6, 2002
By DANIEL EISENBERG
At a time when the job market still
seems bleak, the outlook for Alex and CindiIgnatovsky, both 33, could not be muchbrighter. After trying out a number of dif-ferent careers, the Aptos, Calif., couple
have recently discovered their true callings. Alex,who had been a paralegal and had also done abrief stint as an insurance salesman, has just start-ed working as a juvenile-probation officer, helpingkids wend their way through the crowded criminal-justice system. Cindi, who previously was an editorand a graphic designer, is now busy finishing up anintensive, multiyear program to become anacupuncturist. In her view, as she puts it, “there’s asmuch opportunity as I make of it.”
She’s right, about both her and her husband’sprospects—but not just because they’re passionateand adept at what they do. They have also, as itturns out, each chosen fields—in his case, lawenforcement and social services, in hers, healthcare—that are feeling the first effects of the comingjob boom. That’s right. Even as thousands of Amer-icans are still getting pink slips, powerful help is onthe way. And it has more to do with demographicsthan economics. The oldest members of the hugebaby-boom generation are now 56, and as theystart retiring, job candidates withthe right skills will be in hot de-mand. As Mitch Potter of human-resources consultant William M.Mercer says, “The dotcom bubblecreated a false talent crunch. Thereal one is coming.”
In certain industries, especiallythose in which burnout and earlyretirement are common and de-mand for services is rising, the
crunch has already arrived. As the population ages,hospitals can’t find enough nurses or medical tech-nicians. Drugstores are competing to hire phar-macists, bringing some beginners’ salaries above$75,000. School districts and universities will need2.2 million more teachers over the next decade, notto mention administrators and librarians, and arealready avidly recruiting. Homeowners can’t gettheir calls returned by skilled contractors, electri-cians or plumbers. Corporations are scooping upaccountants and engineers. For job seekers whohave the right skills or are willing to learn them,there are real opportunities in government, con-struction and technology.
To millions of laid-off workers still pounding thepavement, of course, this might seem like wishfulthinking. While the economy grew a whopping5.8% in the first quarter of 2002, the job marketusually lags by at least a few months. To land a job,record numbers of workers are taking pay cuts orswitching industries, according to outplacementfirm Challenger, Gray & Christmas; many othersare starting their own small businesses. But ashard as it may be to believe, it should not be toolong before employees are in the driver’s seat. Awave of retirements whose full effect is only start-ing to be felt will soon ripple through the entireeconomy. And the savviest workers and employ-
ers are already preparing for it.Though the average retirement
age is creeping up—and a growingshare of Americans, by choice ornecessity, are planning to work atleast part time well past 65—demographers say there still willnot be enough qualified membersof the next generation to pick up theslack. With 76 million baby boom-ers heading toward retirement over
The Coming Job Boom The help-wanted ads may look thin—but thanks to a generation of aging baby boomers, that’s about to change
B U S I N E S S
0
50
100
75
25
Projected U.S. populationage 65 and older
In millions
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
2001 ’10 ’20 ’30 ’40 ’50
82.0million
THE GRAY WAVE?
time, may 6, 2002 31
the next three decades and only 46 million GenXers waiting in the wings, corporate America is fac-ing a potentially mammoth talent crunch. Cer-tainly, labor-saving technology and immigrationmay help fill the breach. Still, by 2010 there may bea shortage of 4 million to 6 million workers.
Not enough Americans are trained for thesejobs. They lack everything from computer literacyand leadership to critical thinking and communi-cation skills. The recent slump, though, may behelping narrow the skills gap in a surprising way.Although generous social-welfare systems in industrialized countries such as Germany andBritain make it easy for the laid off to wait aroundfor a factory to reopen, Americans tend to takethe initiative during a downturn, getting educatedor trained for a better job and in the process addingto the country’s stock of human capital. Applicationsto graduate programs in everything from law andbusiness to education and engineering are up fromlast year by 30%–100%. Although 1.9 million Amer-icans with a high school diploma or less got the axfrom September 2000 to October 2001—a timewhen the economy was slumping—1.2 million peo-ple with college or vocational degrees were hired,according to the Employment Policy Foundation.
It isn’t just the younger generation that’s goingback to school, either. Bruce LeBel, 59, a veteran
aircraft mechanic who lost his job after September11, is learning how to service the computer net-works that help run more and more factories andpower plants. Many of his former colleagues “areafraid to try anything different. They want to staywith a dead horse,” he says. “But the only thing thatcan save me is having a skill that’s in demand.”
To keep pace in today’s fast-moving economy,job hunters must be, above all, flexible. SteveReyna, 28, who four years ago went to work atTDIndustries, a Dallas-based mechanical con-tractor that specializes in air-conditioning andplumbing projects for high-tech companies, knowsthis better than most. After training as a sheet-metal technician, Reyna moved on to work in theso-called clean rooms of semiconductor compa-nies, learning a little welding and plumbing alongthe way. Just one of more than 1,300 employees atTDIndustries who are rigorously cross-trained,Reyna is now ready to work “wherever they needme.” If the number crunchers turn out to be right,that could soon mean just about everywhere.
Questions
1. What statistics does the writer cite to describethe magnitude of the coming job boom? 2. Between 2000 and 2010, what occupations areexpected to be the “hottest”? The “coldest”?
B U S I N E S S
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
THE HOT JOBS Some occupations with the largest projected growth, 2000–2010 (Change in number of jobs)
Teachers (K-12) +711,000 Computer-Software Engineers +664,000 Registered Nurses +561,000 Truck Drivers +561,000 Computer-Support Specialists +490,000 Accountants and Auditors +181,000 Marketing and Sales Managers +168,000 Auto Mechanics +151,000 Health Therapists +145,000 Police and Sheriff’s Officers +141,000 Social Workers +141,000 Engineers +138,000 Lawyers +123,000 Electricians +120,000 Recreation and Fitness Workers +118,000 Sales Representatives +118,000
THE COLD JOBS Some occupations with the largestprojected losses, or smallest growth, 2000–2010
Farmers and Ranchers –328,000 Phone-Switchboard Operators –60,000 Bank Tellers –59,000 Insurance-Claims Clerks –58,000 Word Processors/Typists –57,000 Sewing-Machine Operators –51,000 Butchers –13,000 Meter Readers –13,000 Parts Salespeople –12,000 Procurement Clerks –9,000 Movie Projectionists –3,000 Proofreaders –2,000 Loggers –2,000 Funeral Directors +1,000 Insurance Underwriters +2,000 Travel Agents +4,000
32 Worksheet Prepared by Time Learning Ventures
Name Date
Test your knowledge of stories covered in the Current Events Update by answering the followingmultiple-choice questions.
____ 1. Demographers predict that by 2010, theremay be a shortage of up to how many U.S. workers?a. 2 million c. 6 millionb. 4 million d. 8 million
____ 2. The position of House Minority Whip iscurrently held by:a. Barbara Boxer c. Dianne Feinsteinb. Nancy Pelosi d. Tammy Baldwin
____ 3. Some Arabs criticized Yasser Arafat for agree-ing to which of the following measures in order toend the standoff at the Church of the Nativity?a. amnesty for all involved c. teargassingb. storming of the church d. deportations
____ 4. As a prerequisite to recognizing a Palestinianstate, President Bush has demanded the ouster of: a. Yasser Arafat c. Saddam Husseinb. Ariel Sharon d. Jihad Ja‘ara
____ 5. WorldCom overstated its profits by:a. denying that it had borrowed moneyb. selling merchandise it had not yet producedc. treating routine expenses as capital investmentsd. creating a series of fictitious shell companies
____ 6. To regain control of the House of Represen-tatives, Democrats need to gain how many seats?a. 4 c. 8b. 6 d. 10
____ 7. Which of the following does the U.S. notwant from Russia?a. Support in toppling Saddam Husseinb. Aid in the war on terrorismc. Investment in American industryd. Access to Russian oil reserves
____ 8. Which member of the Bush Administrationdiscouraged the President from committing the U.S.to full engagement in the Middle East peace process?a. Colin Powell c. Dick Cheneyb. Condoleezza Rice d. Gale Norton
____ 9. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has offeredwhat payment to the families of Palestinian suicidebombers?a. $1,000 c. $25,000b. $10,000 d. $50,000
____ 10. Israel launched a plan to take over the JeninRefugee Camp because this settlement:a. housed Yasser Arafat’s headquartersb. was home to numerous suicide attackersc. was considered a particularly easy targetd. was on land that Israeli settlers wanted to occupy
Match each of the locationsbelow with the descriptionat right. Write the letter ofthe correct country in thespace provided. (Note: Notall answers will be used.)
A. AfghanistanB. ChinaC. IndiaD. IraqE. IsraelF. JapanG. The NetherlandsH. PakistanI. RussiaJ. SpainK. SyriaL. Yugoslavia
____ 11. The former President of this country is on trial for genocide, tortureand crimes against humanity.
____ 12. A series of suicide bombings has rocked this nation.
____ 13. This nation has the world’s highest level of public debt.
____ 14. A border dispute and separatist rebellion have led to fears that thisprimarily Hindu nation might resort to the use of nuclear weapons.
____ 15. Where the War Crimes Tribunal is based.
____ 16. An assault on al-Qaeda forces occurred here, in the Shah-i-Kot Valley.
____ 17. Country that reduced its nuclear arsenal under a new treaty with theUnited States.
____ 18. President Bush has called the leader of this country “a dangerousman, possessing the world’s most dangerous weapons.”
____ 19. Though officially barred from this nation, members of the Talibanhave been spotted here.
____ 20. Country to which most of Japan’s manufacturing jobs are migrating.
✍WORKSHEET
Current Events In Review
Answer KeyThe Saga of the Siege (pages 2-3)1. The siege began on April 2,2002, when Jihad Ja‘ara, a gunmanfrom al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades,was injured during a clash with Israelis. Comrades carried himinto the Church of the Nativity.The Israelis did not want to stormthe church, given that it is one ofthe holiest sites in Christianity, sothey surrounded it, trapping Ja‘araand hundreds of others inside.2. To resolve the standoff, Arafatwas willing to go along with U.S.and British proposals that some of the men inside the church bedeported. In response, manyPalestinians accused Arafat of selling out.
Untangling Jenin’s Tale (pages 4–6)1. The Israelis sought to take control of the Jenin camp becausethey believed it was home to nu-merous militants intent on stagingsuicide-bombing attacks against Is-raeli soldiers and civilians.2. In 12 days of fighting at thecamp, 54 Palestinians died and 49more were missing, according toU.N. figures. Among the deathswere 22 civilians. A Time investi-gation concluded that there wasno deliberate slaughter of Pales-tinians by Israelis.
Why Suicide Bombing … Is Now All
the Rage (pages 8–9)1. Until recently, most Palestinianssupported the peace process andbelieved they had alternatives tothe kind of extreme tactics em-ployed by suicide bombers. Butwith the breakdown of the peaceprocess in 2000, prospective sui-cide bombers emerged in greaternumbers than ever before. 2. Organizations that sponsor sui-cide bombings pay the bombers’families a permanent pension andbankroll the education of thebombers’ children. In addition,Iraqi President Saddam Husseinprovides a $25,000 payment to thefamilies in a show of solidarity.
Better Late Than Never
(pages 10–11)1. Bush’s senior foreign-policy advisers, led by Dick Cheney andDonald Rumsfeld, are skeptical ofthe concept of a land-for-peaceswap. They therefore discouragedBush from committing the U.S. toplaying an active role in the peaceprocess.2. In a June speech, Bush statedthat the Palestinians must replacetheir current leaders with ones“not compromised by terror” be-fore the U.S. will recognize aPalestinian state.
Leadership in the Middle East
(page 12) 1. Each of the three cartoonistsdraws a parallel between Sharonand Arafat. The two leaders aredepicted as lacking in vision andcredibility, respectively (topimage); as seeking to distancethemselves from the peace processrather than engage in it head-on(middle image); and as bickeringchildren who need to be keptapart by Colin Powell (bottomimage). 2. The cartoonist suggests thatSharon has limited vision andArafat has limited credibility. He makes this point through the extremely small size of the telescope and megaphone.3. Sharon states that he wantsArafat exiled, while Arafat in turnsstates that he wants the dove—a symbol of peace—to be exiled.Taken together, these portraitssuggest that while exile might provide a temporary reprieve fromthe cycle of violence, it will notprovide a long-term solution to theMiddle East conflict.4. Powell is shown as a stern, commanding, “adult” figure who is attempting to keep the smaller“children” from feuding with oneanother. The statement from theTime article suggests that Powellgrew frustrated because seniormembers of the Bush Administra-tion discouraged the Presidentfrom fully committing the U.S. toplaying an active role in the peace process.5. Answers will vary.
Encountering the Taliban
(pages 13–14) 1. The article reveals that pocketsof Taliban resistance continue toexist in Pakistan.2. Within Afghanistan, support hasemerged from the Iranian-backedHezb-i-Islami movement and fromIttehad-i-Islami. In addition, sup-port has come from Iran and fromdisaffected elements within Pak-istan. Each of these groups sharesthe Taliban’s view that America isthe enemy.
Inside Saddam’s World (pages 15–16) 1. The fact that Saddam wasnowhere in sight for his birthdayparty suggests that he is hiding in the shadows, seeking to avoidpotential assassins.2. Saddam is employing diplomat-ic weapons in an effort to under-cut support for a U.S. attack onhim. For example, his offer of$25,000 to families of suicidebombers has won him wide admi-ration and a reputation as the oneArab leader who is willing to sayno to Washington.
Will Milosevic Get His? (pages 17–18) 1. Milosevic is accused of orchestrating crimes that broughtabout the deaths of 300,000 non-Serbs and the expulsion ofmillions from their homelands. 2. Milosevic calls the charges “ab-surd” and refuses to recognize theauthority of the court to put himon trial.
Our New Best Friend? (pages 19–20) 1. Bush views Putin as a trustedfriend. Bush reached this view afterthe two leaders’ first meeting lastJune.2. Russia and the U.S. signed atreaty committing both nations tocut their nuclear arsenals. In addi-tion, Russia is being considered forfull membership in nato.
War Clouds in Kashmir (pages 21–22)1. India and Pakistan are feudingover control of Kashmir; additionaltensions have been created as a re-sult of a separatist rebellion, fueledpartly by Pakistan.2. Musharraf publicly denouncesmilitant incursions but knows thatit would be political suicide to denounce the militants’ goals; Vaj-payee has advised Indian troops toprepare for a “decisive battle” andappears aware that conflict withPakistan could enhance politicalsupport for his party within India.
The Kashmir Conflict (page 23)1. According to the map, India has750,000 troops in Kashmir, whilePakistan has 506,000 troops.2. India’s Prime Minister orderedthousands of soldiers to the borderwith Pakistan and moved five war-ships to the Arabian Sea; Pakistanpulled 4,000 troops out of SierraLeone and stationed them along its eastern frontier. Pakistan alsoperformed a test of a medium-range missile.3. For the militants, conflict pro-vides an escape from poverty. Pak-istan’s President Musharraf winspolitical support by declining to de-nounce the aims of the separatists.And in India, war talk has broughtan end to criticisms of the hard-line, anti-Muslim tactics employedby Prime Minister Vajpayee.
Time For Hardball? (pages 24–25)1. Japan has the world’s highestlevel of public debt: 140% of grossdomestic product. The nation isfacing rising unemployment andmounting bankruptcies, whilestock values and consumer confidence are falling.2. Bush is concerned that inactionin Japan could trigger a global economic crisis.Whipping Up a Fight (page 26)1. Tom DeLay (r-tx) is the
majority whip; Nancy Pelosi (d-ca) is minority whip. 2. History is on the Democrats’side, since the party of the President usually loses Houseseats in midterm elections. But the rebounding economy and ashortage of other issues could helpRepublicans.
DeLay vs. Pelosi (page 27)Possible answers include:Taxes—Delay supports abolishingwhat he calls the “Death Tax,”while Pelosi argues that repealingthe estate tax would undermineour national security and costmore than $1 trillion.Social Security—DeLay supportsreplenishing the Social SecurityTrust Fund by paying down debt;Pelosi charges that Republicanswant to “raid” the Social SecurityFund to pay for a tax cut forwealthy Americans.Environment—DeLay supportsopening anwr (the Arctic NationalWildlife Refuge) to developmentin order to reduce dependence onforeign oil; Pelosi accuses Republi-cans of creating new loopholes inthe Clean Air Act that aid pollutersand harm the environment.
WorldCon (pages 28–29)1. The meltdown of Enron stockobliterated $67 billion of stock-holders’ wealth, less than half theamount WorldCom investors havelost.2. WorldCom treated routine expenses as capital investments.These expenses were not subtract-ed from the company’s revenues in the year they were incurred, but rather over time, boosting financial results.
The Coming Job Boom
(pages 30–31)1. The writer states that by 2010,there may be a shortage of 4 to 6 million workers. Further, 76 million Americans are headingtoward retirement, but only 46 million Gen Xers are waiting to take their places.2. The hottest jobs include teachers, computer engineers andnurses; the coldest are farmers,telephone operators and banktellers.
Current Events in Review
(page 32)1.c 2.b 3.d 4.a 5.c 6.b 7.c 8.c 9.c 10.b 11.L 12.E 13.F 14.C15.G 16.A 17.I 18.D 19.H 20.B
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