giai phap khcn on dinh dong chay song dong nai kc-08.29

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BOÄ KHOA HOÏC VAØ COÂNG NGHEÄ BOÄ NOÂNG NGHIEÄP & PTNT VIEÄN KHOA HOÏC THUÛY LÔÏI MIEÀN NAM Chöông trình baûo veä moâi tröôøng vaø phoøng traùnh thieân tai ÑEÀ TAØI NGHIEÂN CÖÙU CAÁP NHAØ NÖÔÙC – MAÕ SOÁ KC-08.29 NGHIEÂN CÖÙU ÑEÀ XUAÁT CAÙC GIAÛI PHAÙP KHCN ÑEÅ OÅN ÑÒNH LOØNG DAÃN HAÏ DU HEÄ THOÁNG SOÂNG ÑOÀNG NAI - SAØI GOØN PHUÏC VUÏ PHAÙT TRIEÅN KINH TEÁ - XAÕ HOÄI VUØNG ÑOÂNG NAM BOÄ Chuyeân ñeà 7a: CAÙC GIAÛI PHAÙP KHOA HOÏC COÂNG NGHEÄ ÑEÅ OÅN ÑÒNH LOØNG DAÃN HAÏ DU – ÑAÙNH GIAÙ TAÙC ÑOÄNG DOØNG CHAÛY DÖÔÙI TAÙC ÑOÄNG COÂNG TRÌNH THÖÔÏNG NGUOÀN VAØ KHAI THAÙC HAÏ DU Chuû nhieäm ñeà taøi: PGS.TS. Hoaøng Vaên Huaân Chuû nhieäm chuyeân ñeà: PGS.TS. Nguyeãn Taát Ñaéc Thöïc hieän: ThS. Ñaëng Thanh Laâm ThS. Nguyeãn Höõu Taân KS. Nguyeãn Vaên Ngoïc KS. Ñaøo Thò Minh Taâm KS. Nguyeãn Ñình Ñaït 5982-8 21/8/2006

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  • BO KHOA HOC VA CONG NGHE BO NONG NGHIEP & PTNT VIEN KHOA HOC THUY LI MIEN NAM

    Chng trnh bao ve moi trng va phong tranh thien tai

    E TAI NGHIEN CU CAP NHA NC MA SO KC-08.29

    NGHIEN CU E XUAT CAC GIAI PHAP KHCN E ON NH LONG DAN HA DU HE THONG SONG ONG NAI - SAI GON PHUC VU PHAT TRIEN

    KINH TE - XA HOI VUNG ONG NAM BO Chuyen e 7a:

    CAC GIAI PHAP KHOA HOC CONG NGHE E ON NH LONG DAN HA DU ANH GIA TAC ONG

    DONG CHAY DI TAC ONG CONG TRNH THNG NGUON VA KHAI THAC HA DU

    Chu nhiem e tai: PGS.TS. Hoang Van Huan Chu nhiem chuyen e: PGS.TS. Nguyen Tat ac

    Thc hien: ThS. ang Thanh Lam ThS. Nguyen Hu Tan

    KS. Nguyen Van Ngoc KS. ao Th Minh Tam KS. Nguyen nh at

    5982-8 21/8/2006

  • ________________________________

    i

    MC LC 1. KHI QUT CHUNG...................................................................................... 1

    1.1. Mc tiu ................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Phng php thc hin ........................................................................................................ 1 1.3. Nhng ni dung thc hin.................................................................................................... 1

    2. LU VC H THNG SNG NG NAI.................................................. 2 2.1. c im t nhin ................................................................................................................. 2

    2.1.1 H thng sng: ................................................................................................................................ 2 2.1.2 c im kh tng thu vn.......................................................................................................... 3

    2.2. iu kin kinh t x hi ........................................................................................................ 5 2.2.1. Dn s ............................................................................................................................................ 6 2.2.2. Nng nghip................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.3. Cng nghip................................................................................................................................. 12

    2.3. D bo nhu cu dng nc cho sinh hot, cng nghip, dch v.................................... 14 2.3.1. Tiu chun dng nc.................................................................................................................. 14 2.3.2. D bo tnh hnh pht trin dn s trong khu vc........................................................................ 14 2.3.3. D kin pht trin du lch trong vng .......................................................................................... 15 2.3.4. Tnh ton nhu cu nc................................................................................................................ 15

    2.4. Nhng nghin cu khai thc s dng ti nguyn nc ................................................... 21 2.5. Cng trnh khai thc ti nguyn nc .............................................................................. 21

    2.5.1. Hin trng cng trnh Thy li..................................................................................................... 21 2.5.2. Cng trnh thy in v h thng thy in bc thang trn sng ng Nai ................................ 23 2.5.3. Cc thng s thit k thy in bc thang.................................................................................... 24

    2.6. Quy hoch chuyn nc trong lu vc ............................................................................. 26 2.6.1. Hin trng v d n chuyn nc trong lu vc.......................................................................... 26 2.6.2. D kin m rng h thng cung cp nc mt hin c trong khu vc. ....................................... 26

    3. XY DNG M HNH M PHNG PHNG N KHAI THC S DNG TI NGUYN NC VNG THNG LU ..................................... 27

    3.1. M hnh cn bng nc MIKE BASIN............................................................................. 27 3.1.1. Khi qut v m hnh MIKE BASIN........................................................................................... 27 3.1.2 Cu trc m hnh MIKE BASIN................................................................................................... 28 3.1.3. Yu cu s liu ca MIKE BASIN .............................................................................................. 28 3.1.4. Vng nghin cu.......................................................................................................................... 28 3.1.5. S ho vng nghin cu trong MIKE BASIN ........................................................................ 30 3.1.6. Hiu chnh m hnh MIKE BASIN cho vng nghin cu ........................................................... 30 3.1.7. ng dng m hnh m phng cc phng n pht trin hin trng 2000, d kin nm 2010, v 2020 ....................................................................................................................................................... 34 3.1.8. nh gi s b kt qu m phng cc phng n........................................................................ 39

    4. M PHNG DIN BIN THU LC VNG H LU DO CC TC NG PHT TRIN ............................................................................................ 40

    4.1. M hnh thu lc VRSAP vng h lu sng ng Nai-Si Gn .................................... 40 4.1.1. Khi qut chung vng nghin cu ............................................................................................... 40 4.1.2. c im dng chy h lu sng ng Nai Si Gn................................................................. 41 4.1.3. Gii thiu m hnh v s tnh.................................................................................................. 43 4.1.4. Hiu chnh m hnh...................................................................................................................... 47

    4.2. M t cc trng hp tnh ton......................................................................................... 52 4.3. M hnh ho v tnh ton m phng cc trng hp ...................................................... 57 4.4. Tng hp v phn tch kt qu tnh ton.......................................................................... 59

  • ________________________________

    ii

    4.4.1. M phng l 2000 v l tn sut 1% (TH1-1%) v 10% (TH1-10%) trong iu kin hin trng cng trnh nm 2000. ............................................................................................................................. 59 4.4.2. Trng hp cng trnh nm 2010 vi tn sut l 1% (TH2-1%) v 10% (TH2-10%)................. 64 4.4.3. Trng hp cng trnh nm 2020 vi tn sut l 1% (TH3-1%) v 10% (TH3-10%)................. 70 4.4.4. Trng hp m phng dng chy bnh qun thng ng CTTL nm 2010 (BQ2010) v 2020 (BQ2020). .............................................................................................................................................. 75 4.4.5. Khai lung giao thng thu vo cng Hip Phc....................................................................... 81 4.4.6. Nn thng sng Soi Rp (on Nh B-Hip Phc) ............................................................... 84 4.4.7. Ln bao bo v vng sn xut ven sng Si Gn-ng Nai-Nh B...................................... 87

    4.5. Kt lun................................................................................................................................ 89

    5. NGHIN CU PHI HP VN HNH H CHA GIM THIU XI L LNG DN H LU............................................................................. 90

    5.1. M phng Phng n 0 (c 3 h TA, DT, PH u x) ..................................................... 91 5.2. M phng Phng n 1 (h Phc Ho v Du Ting ct l) ........................................ 92 5.3. M phng Phng n 2 (h Phc Ho ct l) ................................................................ 95 5.4. M phng Phng n 3 (h Tr An ct l) ....................................................................... 97 5.5. Kt lun............................................................................................................................... 99

    6. KT LUN V KIN NGH ...................................................................... 100 PH LC I: BIU MC NC TNH TON V THC O PH LC II: BIU LU LNG TN SUT T THNG NGUN TRNG HP HIN TRNG CNG TRNH PH LC III: BIU MC NC, LU LNG, LU TC DNG CHY NM 2000 V TN SUT 1%, 10% IU KIN HIN TRNG CNG TRNH PH LC IV: BIU MC NC, LU LNG, LU TC DNG CHY TN SUT 1% V 10% IU KIN CNG TRNH NM 2010 PH LC V: BIU MC NC, LU LNG, LU TC DNG CHY TN SUT 1% V 10% IU KIN CNG TRNH NM 2020 PH LC VI: BIU LU LNG DNG CHY TRUNG BNH THNG IU KIN CNG TRNH NM 2010 V 2020

  • ________________________________

    iii

    DANH MC CC HNH Hnh 3-1: Khi nim c bn ca MIKE BASIN v m hnh phn b ngun nc........................................... 27 Hnh 3-2: S m hnh MIKE BASIN........................................................................................................... 28 Hnh 3-3: Lu vc h thng sng ng Nai v vung ph cn ........................................................................ 29 Hnh 3-4: Phm vi vng nghin cu v v tr cc nt nghin cu trong xy dng m hnh ............................ 29 Hnh 3-5: S m hnh MIKE BASIN lu vc h thng sng ng Nai v vng ph cn........................... 30 Hnh 3-6: Kt qu hiu chnh m hnh ti a Nhim........................................................................................ 31 Hnh 3-7: Kt qu hiu chnh m hnh ti Thc M........................................................................................ 32 Hnh 3-8: Kt qu hiu chnh m hnh ti Tr An............................................................................................ 33 Hnh 3-9: S LVSN trong phng n hin trng (2000) ......................................................................... 35 Hnh 3-10: Kt qu dng chy trong phng n 2000.................................................................................... 36 Hnh 3-11: S LVSN trong phng n 2010 ........................................................................................... 37 Hnh 3-12: Kt qu dng chy trong phng n 2010.................................................................................... 37 Hnh 3-13: S LVSN trong phng n 2020 ........................................................................................... 38 Hnh 3-14: Kt qu dng chy trong phng n 2010.................................................................................... 38 Hnh 3-15: Kt qu dng chy ti hp lu N-sng B ................................................................................. 39 Hnh 3-16: Kt qu dng chy ti hp lu N-sng Si Gn......................................................................... 39 Hnh 3-17: Kt qu dng chy ti ca sng N ............................................................................................. 40 Hnh 4-1: S ton h lu h thng sng ng Nai Si Gn ................................................................... 45 Hnh 4-2: Bn v tr cc im phn tch din bin dng chy .................................................................... 46 Hnh 4-3: Biu lu lng cc bin TL ti Tr An, Phcc Ho v Du Ting nm 2000.......................... 48 Hnh 4-4: Biu mc nc cc bin HL ti Vng Tu nm 2000 ................................................................ 48 Hnh 4-5: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Si Gn ............................................................................ 63 Hnh 4-6: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng ng Nai.......................................................................... 63 Hnh 4-7: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Lng Tu.......................................................................... 63 Hnh 4-8: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Si Gn ............................................................................ 69 Hnh 4-9: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng ng Nai.......................................................................... 69 Hnh 4-10: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Lng Tu........................................................................ 69 Hnh 4-11: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Si Gn .......................................................................... 74 Hnh 4-12: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng ng Nai........................................................................ 74 Hnh 4-13: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Lng Tu........................................................................ 74 Hnh 4-14: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Si Gn .......................................................................... 75 Hnh 4-15: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng ng Nai........................................................................ 75 Hnh 4-16: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Lng Tu........................................................................ 76 Hnh 4-17: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Si Gn .......................................................................... 76 Hnh 4-18: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng ng Nai........................................................................ 76 Hnh 4-19: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Lng Tu........................................................................ 77 Hnh 4-20: Bn v tr lung giao thng thu vo cng Hip Phc........................................................... 81 Hnh 4-21: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Si Gn .......................................................................... 83 Hnh 4-22: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng ng Nai........................................................................ 83 Hnh 4-23: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Lng Tu........................................................................ 83 Hnh 4-24: Bn v tr tuyn knh nn dng on Hip Phc ................................................................... 84 Hnh 4-25: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Si Gn .......................................................................... 86 Hnh 4-26: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng ng Nai........................................................................ 86 Hnh 4-27: Bin i mc nc v lu tc dc sng Lng Tu........................................................................ 87

  • ________________________________

    iv

    DANH MC CC BNG Bng 2-1: Din tch v nhn khu lu vc sng ng nai nm 2003.............................................................. 6 Bng 2-2: Phn b dn s cc tnh vng h lu nm 2003........................................................................... 6 Bng 2-3: T l tng dn s cc tnh trong vng d n ................................................................................... 6 Bng 2-4 :C cu sn phm cc tnh trong vng nm 2003 ......................................................................... 7 Bng 2-5: Din tch cc cy trng nm 2003................................................................................................... 8 Bng 2-6: C cu s dng t nm 2015 ca cc tnh h lu ......................................................................... 9 Bng 2-7: Hin trng pht trin chn nui trong vng t nm 2000 n 2003 ............................................. 11 Bng 2-8: C s sn xut cng nghip trn a bn ...................................................................................... 12 Bng 2-9: Khu cng nghip chnh thuc tnh Bnh Dng ............................................................................ 12 Bng 2-10: Khu cng nghip chnh thuc T.P H Ch Minh.......................................................................... 13 Bng 2-11: Khu cng nghip chnh thuc tnh ng nai ............................................................................... 13 Bng 2-12: D kin tiu chun dng nc...................................................................................................... 14 Bng 2-13: Din tch & nhn khu lu vc sng ng Nai (Nm 2003 v d bo pht trin dn s nm 2010,2015)....................................................................................................................................................... 14 Bng 2-14: D bo tnh hnh pht trin dn s cc tnh thuc lu vc sng ng Nai Si Gn nm 2010 v 2015 ............................................................................................................................................................ 15 Bng 2-15 : Nhu cu nc d lin nm 2010................................................................................................ 20 Bng 2-16: Thng s cng trnh thu in trn sng b ............................................................................... 24 Bng 2-17: Cc thng s ca cc d n nghin cu v xy dng ................................................................. 25 Bng 3-1: Nhu cu nc theo cc phng n pht trin trn lu vc ............................................................ 34 Bng 4-1: Mc nc Max tnh ton ti mt s trm o t thng VII XII.................................................... 49 Bng 4-2: Mc nc, lu lng v lu tc ti mt s im trn dng chnh: ............................................... 51 Bng 4-3: Tng lu lng thc x h Tr An (x tuabin v x trn)............................................................... 52 Bng 4-4: Lu lng bnh qun ngy thc x trn h Du Ting .................................................................. 53 Bng 4-5: Lu lng tnh ton bnh qun thng sng B ............................................................................... 53 Bng 4-6: Lu lng bnh qun ngy thc o ti trm Phc Ho trn sng B .......................................... 54 Bng 4-7: Lu lng tnh ton........................................................................................................................ 55 Bng 4-8: Lu lng tnh ton........................................................................................................................ 55 Bng 4-9: M hnh ma tiu 5 ngy max thit k 10%, triu bin nm 2000 ................................................. 56 Bng 4-10: Tng hp cc cng trnh trong vng nghin cu.......................................................................... 57 Bng 4-11: Cc trng hp tnh ton theo k hiu ......................................................................................... 57 Bng 4-12: S pht trin cc phng n tnh ton .................................................................................... 58 Bng 4-13: Lu lng ti v tr u ngun .................................................................................................... 59 Bng 4-14: Kt qu m phng mc nc, lu lng v vn tc max trong iu kin hin trng cng trnh . 62 Bng 4-15: Lu lng khi xy dng cng trnh thng lu nm 2010 ti v tr u ngun ........................... 64 Bng 4-16: Kt qu lu lng Qmax ti cc im nghin cu ....................................................................... 65 Bng 4-17: Chnh lch lu lng Qmax thi k 2010 so vi hin trng cng trnh....................................... 66 Bng 4-18: Chnh lch mc nc Hmax thi k 2010 so vi hin trng cng trnh ...................................... 67 Bng 4-19: Chnh lch lu tc Vmax thi k 2010 so vi hin trng cng trnh............................................ 68 Bng 4-20: Lu lng max (m3/s) khi xy dng cng trnh thng lu ti v tr u ngun ......................... 70 Bng 4-21: Kt qu lu lng Qmax, mc nc Hmax, v lu tc max ti cc im nghin cu.................. 71 Bng 4-22: Chnh lch lu lng Qmax thi k 2020 so vi hin trng cng trnh....................................... 72 Bng 4-23: Chnh lch mc nc Hmax thi k 2020 so vi hin trng cng trnh ...................................... 73 Bng 4-24: So snh lu lng phng n nm 2020 v 2010 ....................................................................... 78 Bng 4-25: So snh mc nc phng n 2020 v 2010................................................................................ 79 Bng 4-26: So snh lu tc phng n 2020 v 2010..................................................................................... 80 Bng 4-27: So snh thng s thu lc phng n khai lung so vi hin trng ............................................. 82 Bng 4-28: So snh thng s thu lc phng n nn dng so vi hin trng ............................................... 85 Bng 4-29: So snh kt qu m phng lu lng v mc nc max hin trng 2000 v phng n pht trin bao ven sng h lu N-SG ....................................................................................................................... 88 Bng 5-1: Kt qu m phng thng s thu lc Phng n 0 (c 3 h TA, DT, PhHo u x) .................... 91 Bng 5-2: Kt qu m phng thng s thu lc Phng n 1 (h Phc Ho v Du Ting ct l) ............ 93 Bng 5-3: So snh thng s thu lc Phng n 1 v Phng n 0 ............................................................... 94 Bng 5-4: Kt qu m phng thng s thu lc Phng n 2 (h Phc Ho ct l).................................... 95 Bng 5-5: So snh thng s thu lc Phng n 2 v Phng n 0 ............................................................... 96 Bng 5-6: Kt qu m phng thng s thu lc Phng n 3 (h Tr An ct l)............................................ 97 Bng 5-7: So snh thng s thu lc Phng n 3 v Phng n 0 ............................................................... 98

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 1

    1. KHI QUT CHUNG

    1.1. Mc tiu nh gi hin trng ch dng chy h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn (N-SG) ph thuc vo vic vn hnh cng trnh b sung nc thng lu, ng thi nh gi s bin i dng chy khi c cc phng n pht trin trong lu vc v s dng nc cho nng nghip, cng nghip, dn sinh.

    1.2. Phng php thc hin - Tng hp v phn tch ti liu - M hnh ton l phng php ch o

    1.3. Nhng ni dung thc hin - Thu thp ti liu v r sot cc nghin cu c - Thu thp ti liu dng chy cc trm thu vn vng h lu sng N-SG nh

    T Li, Ph in, Bin Ho, Nh B (trn sng ng Nai), Phc Ho (trn sng B), Th Du Mt, Ph An (trn sng Sai Gn) (cung cp mc nc gi c c ti Ph An nm 2000-2004)

    - Thu thp ti liu v hin trng v d kin pht trin dn sinh kinh t vng h du.

    - Thu thp ti liu v hin trng v d kin pht trin bc thang cng trnh thng lu h thng sng ng Nai (thng s thit k cng trnh, quy trnh vn hnh iu tit h cha, vic chuyn nc...).

    - R sot cc nghin cu v nh gi dng chy, phi hp vn hnh cng trnh iu tit dng chy h lu sng N-SG, cn bng nc, quy hoch khai thc pht trin ti nguyn nc trn lu vc.

    - Tng hp v phn tch ti liu - Tnh ton lu lng nh v m phng dng l theo cc mc tn sut 1,0%

    v 10% ti cc trm o thu vn v mt s tuyn cng trnh thng lu sng ng Nai, sng Si Gn, sng B nh Tr An, Thc M, Phc Ho, Du Ting.

    - Tng hp v tnh ton nhu cu s dng nc hin trng v theo d kin pht trin vng h lu sng N-SG ca cc ngnh nng nghip, cng nghip, nc sinh hot, vic chuyn nc

    - Tng hp cc phng n pht trin bc thang cng trnh thng lu theo cc giai on.

    - Tnh ton ch dng chy ti cc im ch cht nguy c v st l. - Xc nh t hp tnh ton dng chy h lu sng N-SG; cc iu kin bin. - Tnh ton cc iu kin bin dng chy h lu sng N-SG trng hp hin

    trng.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 2

    - Xy dng m hnh v tnh ton phn tch dng chy h lu sng N-SG trng hp hin trng s dng nc v hin trng cng trnh.

    - Xy dng m hnh v tnh ton iu tit dng chy thng lu trong cc trng hp pht trin bc thang cng trnh v d kin s dng nc.

    - Xy dng m hnh v tnh ton phn tch dng chy h lu sng N-SG trong cc trng hp: (*) Pht trin bc thang cng trnh thng lu sng ng nai, xy dng h Phc Ho trn sng B. Bin i dng chy do bc thang cng trnh iu tit li dng chy. (*) Cc hot ng khai thc ct, no vt lng dn, nn thng sng Soi Rp, o ct m lung tu thu vo cng Hip Phc... vng h du. (*) D kin s dng nc: Cc ngnh nng nghip, cng nghip v nc sinh hot hin trng v d kin n nm 2010; chuyn nc h du.

    Phn tch din bin dng chy trong trong cc phng n tnh ton ti cc v tr then cht nh:

    (*) Cc v tr ngay sau cng trnh h cha Tr An, Phc Ho, Du Ting. (*) Ti hp lu sng B vi sng ng Nai. (*) Cc v tr Tn Uyn, Tp.Bin Ho, cu ng Nai, C lao Ra, on h lu cu Gnh trn v hp lu sng SG trn sng ng Nai (*) Cc v tr Bn Dc, cu Bnh Phc, nh th Fatima (thng lu cu Bnh Li), Thanh a, Mi n trn sng Si Gn. (*) Trn sng Nh B, Soi Rp.

    Xy dng bo co v bn v, bn minh ho.

    2. LU VC H THNG SNG NG NAI

    2.1. c im t nhin

    2.1.1 H thng sng: H thng sng ng Nai l h thng ng hng th 3 ca c nc, gm dng

    chnh sng ng Nai v 4 ph lu ln l sng La Ng( pha b tri), sng B, sng Si Gn, sng Vm C (pha b phi).

    Lu vc sng ng Nai bao gm cc tiu lu vc ca sng ng Nai v cc ph lu. Trong l ton b cc tnh Bnh Phc, Bnh Dng, Ty Ninh, Thnh ph H Ch Minh, Lm ng, phn ln tnh ng Nai, mt phn tnh c Lc, Bnh Thun, B Ra-Vng Tu v Long An, vi din tch t nhin l 40.683 km2.

    1/ Sng ng Nai: Bt ngun t dy ni Lang Bian ca Trng Sn Nam c cao khong 2.000

    m, hng chy chnh l ng Bc, Ty Nam. Din tch lu vc tnh n Thc Tr An l 14.800 km2.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 3

    Phn thng lu gm hai nhnh a Nhim v a Dung. Sng a Nhim qua pha ng thnh ph Lt v i st thng ngun cc sng ven Bin. Sng a Dung qua phn pha Ty thnh ph Lt. Din tch phn thng ngun l 3.300 km2.

    Phn Trung lu l phn sau hp lu 2 nhnh a Nhim v a Dung n Thc Tr An. Trn on ny c gia tng dng chy nh cc nhp lu DakNong v DaAnhKong. T bi Ct Tin n thc Tr An sng qua vng trung du, hai b c bi trn rng. Trn on ny c 2 ph lu l Da Hoai v La Ng.

    Vng h lu k t sau Thc Tr An n ca Soi Rp c chiu di 150 Km. Sng qua vng ng bng, lng sng rng, su, dc nh, thu triu nh hng ti chn thc Tr An. Cc ph lu chnh chy vo sng ng Nai h lu pha bn phi c sng B, sng Si Gn, sng Vm C; bn tri l sng L Bung.

    2/ Sng La Ng: Ph lu ln nht ca sng ng Nai bn tri bt ngun t dy ni Di Linh v

    Bo Lc, chy qua ra pha Ty tnh Bnh Thun, vo dng chnh ti v tr cch thc Tr An 38 km v pha thng ngun. Din tch lu vc sng 4.100 km2.

    3/ Sng B: Ph lu ln nht ca sng ng Nai bn phi bt ngun t vng ra Ty Nam

    Ty Nguyn, st bin gii Vit Nam - Cam Pu Chia c cao 850-900 m. Chiu di sng B l 350 km, din tch lu vc l 7.600 km2.

    4/ Sng Si Gn: Bt ngun t Lc Ninh c cao 200m, vo dng chnh ti v tr cch p

    Du Ting 135Km v pha thng ngun, din tch lu vc l 2.700 km2. T sau p Du Ting l vng ng bng, tng din tch lu vc sng Si Gn l 4.500 km2.

    5/ Sng Vm C: L ph lu cui cng ca sng ng Nai. hnh thnh 2 nhnh l Vm C ng

    v Vm c Ty chy vo sng ng Nai ti v tr cch ca Soi Rp 15Km. phc v tnh ton dng chy sng ng Nai v cc nhnh trong lu vc, cn

    thu thp ti liu c lin quan nh: Kh tng, thu vn, cc d n pht trin trong lu vc, cc h cha, cng trnh trung, thng ngun; hin trng v phng hng pht trin kinh t, x hi trong vng, c bit l cc tnh thuc h lu t l Bnh Dng, TP. H Ch Minh, Long An, Ty Ninh v ng Nai.

    2.1.2 c im kh tng thu vn + Kh hu:

    Khu vc c kh hu ca hai ma kh v ma ma; ma ma t thng 5 n thng 11, ma ma t thng 12 n thng 4 nm sau. Trong lu vc c nhiu trm quan trc v kh tng, iu kin cho vic nghin cu nh gi nhng yu t t nhin tc ng n lu vc nh nhit , m, bc hi, ma. + Ma:

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 4

    Ma phn phi khng u theo khng gian, c xu th gim dn t Bc xung Nam v t ng sang Ty. Lng ma phn ln tp trung vo cc thng ma ma, nhng thng ma kh c lng ma trung bnh rt nh. Theo thng k bnh qun nhiu nm lng ma ti cc trm c trng trong khu vc nh sau:

    Bng 2-1: Ma bnh qun theo ma v c nm ti mt s trm n v: mm

    Ma ma Ma kh S TT

    V tr

    S nmti liu

    Lng ma BQ Lng

    ma T l % Lng

    ma T l

    % 1 Ty Ninh 80 1.802 1.541 85,5 262 14,5 2 Lc Ninh 15 2.153 1.995 88,0 258 12,0 3 Du Ting 60 2.014 1.689 83,8 326 16,2 4 Th Du Mt 60 1.819 1.575 86,6 244 13,4 5 Bin Ho 64 1.677 1.479 88,2 198 - 6 Si Gn 86 1.935 1.935 87,1 249 12,9 7 Vng Tu 80 1.371 1.239 90,4 132 9,6

    Bng 2-2: Ma bnh qun ti mt s trm i din trong khu vc

    Ma bnh qun thng (mm) Trm

    I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XI C Nm

    Lc Ninh 5 6 37 68 229 290 311 420 339 293 75 24 2.097Ty Ninh 18 15 45 85 204 238 248 233 327 290 118 49 1.870Du Ting 11 9 27 98 224 246 288 283 344 304 131 40 2.005S Sao 14 2 24 47 213 275 284 286 321 148 124 40 1.778Si Gn 13 5 12 51 210 310 296 272 325 272 120 48 1.934Vng Tu 2 1 5 34 193 210 219 186 217 216 69 21 1.373 + Dng chy:

    Trong lu vc thu thp ti liu v dng chy 1 s trm nh: T Li, Bin Ho, Nh B trn sng ng Nai; trm Phc Ho thuc sng B; Th Du Mt, Ph An trn sng Si Gn, bao gm cc s liu v mc nc, lu lng, mn c lin quan v phc v tnh ton thu lc cho vng d n. Theo thng k v mc nc ti mt s trm trong lu vc nh sau:

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 5

    Bng 2-3: c trng mc nc thng ma kit ti cc trm n v: cm

    Trm Mc nc

    Thng XII

    Thng I

    Thng II

    Thng III

    Thng IV

    Thng V

    Thng VI

    Bin Ho

    Hbq HbqmaxHbqmin

    22 116

    -139

    14107

    -147

    8104

    -166

    299

    -175

    -6 94

    -175

    -13 92

    178

    -1594

    -180Ph An

    Hbq HbqmaxHbqmin

    23 118

    -162

    22116

    -166

    16111

    -175

    8106

    -179

    1 100

    -172

    -9 94

    -179

    -1988

    -221Nh B

    Hbq HbqmaxHbqmin

    18 123

    -185

    17121

    -184

    9116

    -192

    3112

    -188

    -5 105

    -188

    -15 95

    -211

    -2691

    -238Th u Mt

    Hbq HbqmaxHbqmin

    30 109

    -138

    31108

    -145

    23104

    -170

    17100

    -180

    9 99

    -180

    -1 93

    -191

    -1287

    -209

    Bng 2-4: c trng mc nc thng ma ma ti cc trm (cm) Trm Mc

    nc Thng

    VII Thng VIII

    Thng IX

    Thng X

    Thng XI

    C nm

    Ghi ch

    Bin Ho

    Hbq HbqmaxHbqmin

    -2 103

    -163

    31126

    -136

    54138

    -107

    60140-88

    36 124

    -125

    16 150

    -185 Ph An

    Hbq HbqmaxHbqmin

    -16 93

    -222

    -10101

    -216

    6113

    -195

    27121

    -162

    30 120

    -154

    7 126

    -230 Nh B

    Hbq HbqmaxHbqmin

    -25 94

    -239

    -19101

    -233

    -5116

    -213

    24129

    -176

    24 126

    -179

    -1 132

    -246 Th u Mt

    Hbq HbqmaxHbqmin

    -11 91

    -212

    -597

    -213

    11107

    -192

    35111

    -144

    36 109

    -134

    14 113

    -221

    2.2. iu kin kinh t x hi Qu trnh thc hin cng nghip ho, hin i ho t nc thuc cc tnh vng h lu sng Si Gn - ng Nai, c v tr quan trng: Sm hnh thnh nn kinh t m, c mi giao lu, hp tc rng ri vi nhiu nc. Cc tnh Long An, T.P H Ch Minh, ng Nai, Ty Ninh, Bnh Dng c nhp pht trin cao. Thnh Ph H Ch Minh, Bin Ho, B Ra-Vng Tu l vng Tam Gic cng nghip trng im, c nh nc quan tm u t pht trin. Trong khu vc c cng Si Gn l ca ng giao lu vi cc nc trn th gii.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 6

    2.2.1. Dn s Bng 2-1: Din tch v nhn khu lu vc sng ng Nai nm 2003

    Din tch ( ha) STT Tnh T nhin t n.nghipt cn ti

    Mt -2003 ng/km2

    Dn s 2001

    Dn s 2003

    1 Ninh thun 336.006 60.400 42.307 163 529.000 546.1002 Bnh thun 782.800 201.100 71.231 143 1.059.000 1.120.2003 Bnh Phc 685.598 431.700 24.844 112 715.699 764.6004 Bnh Dng 269.555 215.500 20.693 316 759.900 851.1005 Ty Ninh 402.418 285.500 199.169 253 992.554 1.017.1006 Lm ng 976.440 240.900 88.245 115 1.084.363 1.120.1007 TP HCM 209.505 95.300 2651 5.285.000 5.554.8008 BR-VT 197.000 115.500 20.762 449 842.000 884.9009 ng Nai 589.474 302.800 59.188 363 1.900.000 2.142.70010 c Lc 1.960.000 375.500 12.097 103 1.300.000 2.017.80011 Long An 449.200 331.300 143.147 310 1.350.000 1.392.300Ngun s liu: Nin gim thng k

    Bng 2-2: Phn b dn s cc tnh vng h lu nm 2003

    Din tch (km2)

    Dn s (ngi)

    Mt (ngi/ km2)

    Tnh

    Ton tnh

    Vng d n Ton tnh

    Vng d n

    Ton tnh

    Vng d n

    Cng 19.206 11.592 11.041.521 9.531.327 574 822Long An 4.491 1.978 1.381.305 876.840 308 443Ty Ninh 4.029 1.613 1.029.894 743.837 225 461T.P HCM 2.095 2.095 5.630.192 5.630.192 2.687 2.687ng Nai 5.894 3.210 2.149.030 1.699.358 365 529Bnh Dng 2.695 2.695 851.100 851.100 315 315Ngun: Nin gim thng k Tnh hnh pht trin dn s ca cc tnh vn kh cao, ngoi dn s tng t nhin cn tng nhanh do c nhiu dn nhp c t do vo lao ng trong cc khu cng nghip. Nm 2003 t l tng nh Bng 2-3.

    Bng 2-3: T l tng dn s cc tnh trong vng d n n v: %

    Nm 2001 2002 2003 ( s b)

    Tnh T l sinh

    T l tng dn

    s t nhin

    T l sinh

    T l tng dn s t

    nhin

    T l sinh

    T l tng dn s t

    nhin

    Long An 1,79 1,34 1,75 1,30 1,78 1,32Ty Ninh 1,96 1,59 1,90 1,52 1,84 1,45T.P HCM 1,70 1,30 1,67 1,27 1,55 1,15ng Nai 1,83 1,41 1,76 1,34 1,66 1,24B.Dng 1,35 1,32 1,47

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 7

    Ngun thu nhp chnh cc tnh thuc vng h lu Si Gn ng Nai ch yu vn da vo nng nghip, cng nghip v dch v. My nm gn y tng mnh, tng sn phm nm sau cao hn nm trc. Cc tnh trong khu vc c tc tng trng GDP hng nm vt xa tc bnh qun ca ton quc (7,26%- nm 2003). Nm 2003 c cu sn phm theo n v tnh nh sau:

    Bng 2-4: C cu sn phm cc tnh trong vng nm 2003 n v: %

    Tnh Nng Lm ng

    nghip

    Cng nghip

    Dch v Tng sn phm = (100%)

    gi thc t- t ng

    Tng trng GDP (%)

    GDP trn u

    ngi ( tr. )

    Ty Ninh 39,3 26,3 34,37 6159 18,4 5,98ng Nai 17,7 56,2 26,1 20.110 13,2 9,36Long An 45,2 23,4 30,3 8.108 9,2 5,87T.P HCM 1,6 47,9 50,5 111.344 12,2 19,78C Nc 21,8 39,9 38,2 605.586 7,3 7,49

    2.2.2. Nng nghip

    2.2.2.1 Trng trt Din tch t nng nghip trong lu vc l 733.854 ha, chim 64%, c cu sn phm nng nghip chim t trng khng ln, nhng c ngha quan trng v n to ngun nng sn ti ch cung cp lng thc v thc phm cho nhng thnh ph ln trong khu vc nh Bin Ho, T.P H Ch Minh.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 8

    Bng 2-5: Din tch cy trng cc tnh h lu nm 2003 n v: Ha

    Phn theo ton b cc tnh S Th T

    LOI T

    Cng ton

    lu vc Long An

    Ty Ninh

    TP HCM

    ng Nai

    Bnh Dng

    TNG DIN TCH T NHIN1.920.615449.122402.960 209.505 589.473269.555I t nng nghip 1.238.464321.872286.756 95.300 322.736211.8001 T l (DNN/DTN) (%) 64 72 71 45 55 791 t trng la mu 906.256301.096248.754 35.377 144.109176.9201-1 La c nm 761.634443.096142.996 49.381 80.061 46.100 a La X 312.675233.378 38.787 11.413 397 28.700 b La H Thu 244.829168.608 44.366 10.234 17.821 3.800 c La ma 140.452 22.110 53.333 27.734 23.675 13.600 1-2 Bp 88.146 2.369 6.510 9.193 68.874 1.200 1-3 Khoai 37.368 1.454 9.833 800 17.781 7.500 1-4 Rau + u cc loi 68.271 10.813 16.420 9.193 15.379 16.4662 Cy CN hng nm 86.395 16.913 24.736 9.117 25.317 10.312 Ma 39.453 15.818 5224 3.290 11.521 3.600 u phng+.nnh 37.770 6.577 14.116 1.527 8.950 6.600 Thuc l+bng vi 14.973 319 5.396 4.300 4.846 112 ay ( cy khc) 3 Cy c.n lu nm 127.032 2.259 7.246 114.527 3.000 Cao su 47.241 5.884 41.357 H tiu+C ph 34.585 273 31.312 3.000 iu+da 44.526 2.259 1.089 41.178 4 Cy n tri 94.975 1.028 5.820 43.606 23.253 21.268 Cam, qut, 5.354 109 705 2.948 1.592 Nhn vi 12.021 5 3.492 5.535 2.989 Xoi 10.589 51 1.577 5.819 3.142 cc cy n tri khc 45.743 863 46 29.304 15.530 5 Mt nc nui trng thu sn 23.806 576 200 7.200 15.530 300II t lm nghip 159.178 58.478 8.600 38.100 44.900 9.1001 Rng t nhin 96.875 115 7.040 38.000 43.020 8.7002 Rng trng 62.173 58.233 1.560 100 1.880 400III t chuyn dng 94.419 30.247 15.200 12.500 10.972 25.500IV t 71.407 11.115 3.040 18.200 32.952 6.100V t cha s dng 93.104 25.890 15.107 7.500 32.952 11.655VI t Khc 238.978 12.625 54.463 42.505 117.885 11.500

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 9

    Bng 2-6: C cu s dng t nm 2015 ca cc tnh h lu n v: Ha

    TNH TT HNG MC

    LONG AN TY NINH TP.HCM NG NAI B.DNG

    Cng

    DIN TCH T T NHIN 449.112 402.960 209.505 586.640 269.555 1.917.772 I T NNG NGHIP 281.376 249.669 84.530 269.406 187.100 1.072.081 1 t trng cy hng nm 247.114 192.063 74.770 128.342 15.156 657.445

    1.1 t la & la mu 217.541 72.671 53.570 48.800 15.156 407.738 a t rung la 150.627 20.860 14.620 20.900 14.904 221.911 - t 3 v la 1.312 1.413 7.020 14.400 2.273 26.419 - t 2 v la 147.206 15.724 6.600 5.650 12.611 187.790 - t 1 v la 2.110 3.724 1.000 850 19 7.702 b t lun canh la, mu 52.874 41.215 12.930 15.278 5.384 127.681 - t 2 la+1 mu 13.595 17.076 4.280 8.100 641 43.692 - t 2mu +1 la 8.414 15.394 3.600 3.688 4.743 35.839 - t 1 la+1 mu 30.865 8.745 5.050 3.490 48.150 c t lun canh la -c (tm) 14.040 7.181 5.200 9.011 35.432 d t hng nm khc 47.419 3.415 20.820 3.611 2.911 78.175

    1.2 t mu v CCNNN 29.573 119.392 21.200 79.542 2.565 252.272 Trong + ma 24.400 51.709 3.500 11.500 1.341 92.449 + chuyn rau 5.173 3.939 4.200 5.300 1.224 19.836 2 t vn tp 7.000 6.100 13.100 3 t cy lu nm 22.177 47.347 9.000 136.714 170.467 385.705 a t trng cy CN lu nm 2.395 20.496 4.050 107.079 149.304 283.325 - Cao Su 16.145 44.990 126.302 187.436 - Tiu 1.004 26.520 3.012 30.535 - iu 2.141 34.239 19.431 55.811 - Cy CNLN khc 2.395 1.557 1.330 560 5.842

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 10

    b t trng cy n qu 6.735 17.861 2.950 28.650 20.663 76.859 c t trng cy lu nm khc 4.076 1.690 2.000 960 500 9.226 4 t c dng vo chn nui 280 2.875 560 650 1.418 5.784 5 t c mt nc nui thu sn 4.805 1.283 200 3.700 58 10.047 II. T LM NGHIP 83.646 47.109 36.050 189.811 15.010 371.625 1 t c rng t nhin 839 35.187 10.200 130.790 5.000 182.016 2 t c rng trng 82.807 11.922 25.850 59.021 10.010 189.609 3 t cy m ging 12 6 5 5 5 33

    III. T CHUYN DNG 37.123 41.232 40.120 91.757 34.068 244.300 IV. T 20.860 8.897 46.357 17.491 13.252 106.857 V t cha s dng 13.644 4.131 2.095 18.042 8.087 45.999 1 t bng cha s dng 951 405 1.376 2.732 3 t c MN cha s dng 256 45 301 4 Sng sui 12.431 3.465 2.095 16.666 8.087 42.744 5 Ni khng c rng cy 191 191 6 t cha s dng khc 7 25 32

    VI T KHC 12.463 51.923 353 134 12.038 76.909 Ngun ti liu: S a chnh cc tnh -tnh ng Nai trch bo co C NN thng 11/2002

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 11

    t nng nghip ch yu tp trung sn xut cc cy trng phc v ti ch nh, la, rau, u, cc cy cng nghip hng nm v cy n qu. Theo nin gim thng k ca cc tnh v tng cc thng k v c cu s dng t nm 2003 nh Bng 2-6.

    Ngun t nng nghip cn kh ln c s dng trng cy hng nm, cy cng nghip v cy lu nm. Trong din tch la ma(120.658 ha) v la ng Xun (141.299 ha) cn li l la h thu (98.241 ha); la Ma, la ng Xun trng nhiu cc tnh; la H Thu trng nhiu Ty Ninh, Bnh Dng. Cc cy lng thc khc nh bp, khoai m v cc cy hng nm khc trng ng Nai, Ty Ninh, Bnh Dng v Long An. Cy cng nghip lu nm trng nhiu vng Ty Ninh v ng Nai, Bnh Dng; cy n tri trng nhiu Thnh ph H Ch Minh, ng Nai, Long An. Cc d n quy hoch thu li, nng nghip nghin cu v xut phng n sn xut nng nghip cho cc nm tip theo v d kin s dng qu t 2015 - Bng 2-6 trn.

    2.2.2.2 Chn nui i i pht trin cc cy trng th chn nui cng c chiu hng pht trin.

    Nhng nm gn y t 2000 n 2003 s lng n tru gim, b v heo, cc loi gia cm khc tng.

    Bng 2-7: Hin trng pht trin chn nui trong vng t nm 2000 n 2003 Phn theo cc tnh S

    Th T

    Loi con ging Cng Long An

    Ty Ninh

    TP HCM

    ng Nai

    Bnh Dng

    1 Tru ( nghn con ) 2000 105,3 22,4 50,4 7,9 7,9 16,7 2001 91,5 11,6 48,3 8,1 7,7 15,8 2002 90,0 10,8 49,0 7,2 6,7 16,3 2003 84,2 10,9 44,7 6,2 6,0 16,4 T l tng nm 2003(%) -6,4

    2 B ( nghn con ) 2000 199,3 22,5 56,8 39,7 53,2 27,1 2001 210,4 25,6 56,2 45,9 55,6 27,1 2002 229,9 32,1 59,7 53,2 56,1 28,8 2003 259,8 37,9 68,5 62,2 61,3 29,9 T l tng nm 2003(%) 13,0

    3 Heo ( nghn con ) 2000 1279 187,1 120,4 211,7 580,8 178,9 2001 1323 212,1 118,0 194,1 575,5 222,8 2002 1484 213,7 130,7 211,5 681,1 246,7 2003 1660 241,1 156,3 221,9 771,5 269,0 T l tng nm 2003(%) 11,9

    Ngun: S a chnh tnh & nin gim thng k ton quc do Tng cc thng k thc hin

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 12

    Hng pht trin chn nui ca cc tnh nhng nm ti kh nng pht trin n gia sc, gia cm m bo lng tht v sa, t nay n nm 2015 d kin n tru gim khong 4% , n b tng khong 10% , n heo tng khong 9% mi nm. Nh vy s lng gia sc d kin n nm 2015 l: tru 43.800 con, b 5.716.000 con, heo c khong 3.452.400 con.

    2.2.3. Cng nghip

    2.2.3.1 Thc trng cng nghip vng h lu Si Gn Trong nhng nm gn y cng nghip l ngnh pht trin nht trong khu vc;

    cc tnh T.P H Ch Minh, ng Nai, Bnh Dng, Long An v Ty Ninh u c tc tng trng cao. Theo s liu thng k cho thy gi tr tng sn phm cng nghip trong khu vc kh ln. Ring thnh ph H Ch Minh chim t 30 n 35% so vi c nc.

    Cng nghip trong khu vc hin ti l cng nghip nh, a dng ngnh. Ch yu l khai thc, ch bin lm, nng, thu hi sn, may mc v cc ngnh, c kh ch to ch yu phc v sn xut. Hin nay c nhiu c s sn xut, nhng quy m cn nh, nm ri rc trn a bn. S c s ln tp trung mt s khu cng nghip trn a bn thnh ph H Ch Minh, Long An, ng Nai v Bnh Dng.

    Bng 2-8: C s sn xut cng nghip trn a bn DIN TCH Long An Ty Ninh T.P HCM ng Nai B. Dng Tng s c s 9.280 6925 33.102 8.098 Lao ng c.nghip 59.031 42957 113.082 226.447 Gi tr SX theo gi hin hnh (T.) 6.028 3.587 88.881 66.220 32.159Ch s p.t so vi nm trc (%) 117,4 149,8 115,4 124,0 116,0

    2.2.3.2 Phng hng m rng khu cng nghip chnh trong khu vc Bng 2-9: Khu cng nghip chnh thuc tnh Bnh Dng

    DIN TCH ( ha) Tn Khu cng nghip

    Thuc qun ( huyn) Nm 2010 Quy hoch lu di

    Sng Thn 1 Thun An 180 Sng Thn 2 Thun An 354 Singapo Thun An 500 Thun Ph Thun An 500 Tn nh T.X Th Du Mt 535 Bnh ng D An 50 Th Du Mt T.X Th Du Mt 300 Cng 2.419

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 13

    Bng 2-10: Khu cng nghip chnh thuc T.P H Ch Minh Tn Thuc DIN TCH (ha) Khu cng nghip qun ( huyn) Nm 2010 Quy hoch lu

    di Tn Thun Qun 7 300 Linh Trung Th c 62 Hip Phc Nh B 400 2.000 Tn Thi Hip Q12 158 Ph M Q7 150 Tn To Bnh Chnh 182 L Minh Xun Bnh Chnh 100 Cu Xng Bnh Chnh 80 Ph Sn Q8 80 Phng 15,16- Tn Bnh Tn Bnh 179 Phg 9,20- Tn Bnh Tn Bnh 100 Ct Li Qun 2 400 852 Ty Bc C Chi C Chi 200 345 Ty Bc G Vp 119 Hip Bnh Phc Th c 75 K.thut cao Th c Th c 800 Phc Long Qun 9 120 Bnh Khnh Cn Gi 150 Cn Thnh Cn Gi 190 Vnh Lc A Bnh Chnh 200 Tn Ph Trung C Chi 200 Tn Quy C Chi 150 Tam Bnh 1,2,3 Th c 200 Cng 4.595

    Bng 2-11: Khu cng nghip chnh thuc tnh ng Nai Tn Thuc DIN TCH (ha)

    Khu cng nghip qun ( huyn) Nm 2010 Quy hoch lu di

    Bin Ho 1 313 Bin Ho 2 376 Nh.my g Tn Mai 19 G Du 210 Khu CN Amata 750 Tuy H Nhn Trch 250 2.700 Khu CN Long Bnh 200 Khu CN H Nai 3 300 850 Khu CN Sng My 300 Khu CN Tam Phc Long Thnh 300 1.000 Khu CN Am Phc Long Thnh 200 900 Cng 3.218

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 14

    2.3. D bo nhu cu dng nc cho sinh hot, cng nghip, dch v

    2.3.1. Tiu chun dng nc Da vo tiu chun dng nc theo 20/TCN35-85 (B Xy dng nn 1983 v

    theo Vin Quy hoch B Xy dng ( ti nghin cu cp nh nc 26C.01.01). D kin nc sinh hot cho tng lai nh sau:

    Bng 2-12: D kin tiu chun dng nc Tiu chun dng nc T.B cho mi ngi

    (l/ngi/ngy) STT i tng dng nc

    Nm 2010 Nm2015 Nm 2020 Nm 20401 Thnh ph ln 200 220 200-250 270 2 Th x 150 160 180 200 3 Nng thn 60 70 80 100 4 Khch du lch 400 500 500 500

    Da trn tiu chun s dng nc d kin s dng tnh c lng nc s dng trn c s d kin tnh hnh pht trin dn s, sn xut, xy dng v dch v du lch tnh ton nhu cu nc ca khu vc. Lu lng yu cu cho dch v ton min vo nm 2010 l 81,4 m3/s.

    2.3.2. D bo tnh hnh pht trin dn s trong khu vc Theo thng k cc nm gn y dn s cc tnh tng t nhin ca cc tnh trong

    khu vc t 1,15% n 1,47%. Tuy nhin dn s c hc cng tng kh cao do khu vc thnh ph H Ch Minh, Bin Ho v cc khu cng nghip trong khu vc s thu ht lng ngi t cc tnh vo. D kin n nm 2015 s nhn khu trong 5 tnh h lu ln ti gn 22 triu ngi.

    Bng 2-13: Din tch & nhn khu lu vc sng ng Nai

    (Nm 2003 v d bo pht trin dn s nm 2010,2015) Din tch

    ( Ha) Dn s ( ngi) STT Tnh

    T nhin t nng nghip t cn ti Nm 2003 Nm 2010 Nm 2015

    1 Ninh Thun 336.006 60.400 42.307 546.100 655.000 727.0002 Bnh Thun 782.800 201.100 71.231 1.120.200 1.333.000 1.479.5003 Bnh Phc 685.598 431.700 24.844 764.600 834.780 918.3064 Bnh Dng 269.555 215.500 20.693 851.100 929.220 1.022.1945 Ty Ninh 402.418 285.500 199.169 1.017.100 1.241.000 1.365.0006 Lm ng 976.440 240.900 88.245 1.120.100 1.130.000 1.254.5007 TP HCM 209.505 95.300 20.500 5.554.800 6.337.000 6.749.0008 BR-VT 197.000 115.500 20.762 884.900 1.055.000 1.171.0009 ng Nai 589.474 302.800 59.188 2.142.700 2.970.000 3.340.00010 c Lc 1.960.000 375.500 12.097 2.017.800 2.201.420 2.344.51211 Long An 449.200 331.300 143.147 1.392.300 1.518.999 1.617.734 Cng 21.988.746

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 15

    Bng 2-14: D bo tnh hnh pht trin dn s cc tnh thuc lu vc sng ng Nai Si Gn nm 2010 v 2015

    Nm 2010 ( ngi)

    Nm 2015 ( ngi) STT Tnh Tng s

    th Nng thn Tng s th Nng thn1 Ninh Thun 655.000 185.000 470.000 727.000 227.500 499.5002 Bnh Thun 1.333.000 457.000 876.000 1.479.500 513.500 966.0003 Bnh Phc 834.780 135.436 699.344 918.306 164.555 753.7504 Bnh Dng 929.220 264.564 664.656 1.022.194 321.445 700.7505 Ty Ninh 1.241.000 245.000 996.000 1.365.000 323.500 1.041.5006 Lm ng 1.130.000 452.000 678.000 1.254.500 536.000 718.5007 TP HCM 6.337.000 5.095.000 1.242.000 6.749.000 5.495.500 1.253.5008 BR-VT 1.055.000 700.000 355.000 1.171.000 810.000 361.0009 ng Nai 2.970.000 1.520.000 1.450.000 3.340.000 1.860.000 1.480.00010 c Lc 2.201.420 499.788 1.815.788 2.344.512 564.958 1.779.55411 Long An 1.518.999 283.120 1.316.394 1.617.734 325.218 1.292.516 Cng 20.205.419 9.836.908 10.563.18221.988.746 11.142.176 10.846.570

    2.3.3. D kin pht trin du lch trong vng Theo thng k s khch Quc t n Vit Nam nm 2003 l 2.429.700 lt

    ngi, trong d kin n vng d n l 90% v s tng vo nm 2015 t 4,5 triu n 5 triu lt khch Quc t, khong 7 n 8 triu lt khch ni a.

    Trn c s s liu thu thp tng hp trn v phn ph lc. Cc phng n quy hoch thu li, thu in, tnh ton nhu cu s dng nc, tnh cn bng nc cho vng d n v lu vc sng. Xem thm phn ph lc Cc hnh v v biu s liu thng k.

    2.3.4. Tnh ton nhu cu nc

    2.3.4.1 Nhu cu nc cho nng nghip. Khi qut

    Nc dng trong nng nghip ch yu l nc ti cho cy trng v nc phc v chn nui. Trong vng nghin cu nhn chung khng c cc c s chn nui ln, chn nui ch yu l gia nh, quy m sn xut nh, vt nui gm heo, g vt, tru, b v mt s gia cm khc. Ni chung nc dng cho chn nui khng ln v c th ly ngun nc ti ch nh sng, sui, ao h, v.v V vy i tng dng nc chnh trong nng nghip vn l cy trng.

    Cy trng trong vng nghin cu rt a dng v phong ph gm nhiu loi cy trng:

    Cy hng nm: la, bp, khoai m, rau cc loi, u phng, u nnh, bng vi, ma.

    Cy lu nm: c ph, cao su, iu, h tiu, cy n tri,

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 16

    Cao su, iu, khoai m dng nc t nhin l ch yu. Cc cy cn li nu dng nc thin nhin th ch ch ng canh tc nhng ni c ngun nc di do. Song mun thm canh tng v, thm canh nng sut th phi c cng trnh thu li khai thc ti u ti nguyn t nc nhn lc pht trin kinh t x hi.

    Vic tnh ton ch ti cho cc loi cy trng chnh l tnh ton lng nc cn cung cp cho tng loi cy trng theo thi gian v khng gian, t tng hp yu cu nc theo thng ca tt c cc loi cy trng lm c s tnh ton cn bng ngun nc.

    Tnh ton ch ti cho cc loi cy trng A. Phng php tnh ton Nhiu phng php lun c pht trin nhm d on chnh xc lng nc

    cn cy trng t nng sut cao. Trong bo co ny tnh ch ti theo chng trnh CROPWAT Version 5.7 thng 10 nm 1991 ca FAO i vi cy trng cn

    Cng thc tng qut ca chng trnh ny l: In = Etcrop Pe

    Trong : - In (Net irrigation requirements) l yu cu ti thc ca cy trng - Pe (Percentage of effective rainfall) l lng ma hu dng - Etcrop (crop evapotranspiration) l bc hi ton phn ca cy trng (bc

    hi mt t v thi hi thc vt) m Etcrop = ET0 x Kc - ET0: nh hng ca kh hu i vi cc yu cu nc ca cy trng. - Kc: h s sinh trng ca cy trng.

    Bc 1: Xc nh ET0 ET0 = ET0* x A

    Trong : - A: l h s hiu chnh ph thuc rt nhiu yu t kh hu nh tc gi

    (chnh lch gia ngy v m), m tng ng ln nht, bc x nhit (tham kho ti liu Cropwater Requirements, FAO)

    ET0* = W* Rn + (1-W)x f(U) x (ea-ed) Trong :

    - W l gi tr ca nhn t trng lc i vi tc dng ca bc x nhit theo ET0 ti nhit v cao so vi mt bin khc nhau.

    - Rn l bc x thc hoc phn bit gia tt c bc x vo v cc bc x ra, c th o c nh s liu him khi c dng

    - (1-W) l cc gi tr ca nhn t trng lc - F(u) cc gi tr ca hm s gi ti cao 2m so vi mt t

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 17

    - ea: p sut hi nc bo ho ea trong mbar, l hm s ca gi tr nhit khng kh trung bnh

    - ed: l p sut hi nc t d liu nhit trung bnh Bc 2: Xc nh Kc Cc yu t nh hng ti gi tr h s sinh trng cy trng Kc l c trng

    chnh ca cy trng. Thi gian sinh trng ca cy trng s ph thuc vo iu kin sinh trng c bit l nhit . V vy cc gi tr cn kim tra v hiu chnh theo v tr. Thi gian sinh trng i vi cy trng cn c chia lm 4 giai on

    - Giai on 1: Mc mm v bt u trng. Lc ny mt t khng hoc kh b cy trng che ph.

    - Giai on 2: Giai on pht trin cy trng k t cui giai on u t c mc ch che ph c hiu qu v y nht.

    - Giai on 3: Thi gian nh gia s che ph ca t c hiu qu v mi bt u ca s trng thnh (l bt u chuyn mu v rng)

    - Giai on 4: cui giai on 3 ti lc gt hi, thu hoch Bc 3: Tnh nhu cu nc ca cy trng Etcrop Tnh cc yu cu nc ca cy trng thc hin theo tng thi on 10 ngy mt,

    ngoi tr giai on u v giai on cui vo lc trng v gt hi. tnh ton n gin nht tt c cc thng c ly l 30 ngy. H s Penman ET0, ma hu dng Peff, h s sinh trng ca tng loi cy trng Kc c xc nh theo tng thi on tnh ton.

    Nc ti c yu cu khng nhng khng ch s mt mt do bc hi m cn b vo ch mt do bc hi trn cnh ng ngp nc. Trc khi cy la, ti thc t c yu cu cho vic chun b lm i, dm, gieo m. Cc cy trng cn c 4 giai on sinh trng, cy la nc c 6 giai on bao gm cc thi k gieo m v lm i. Chiu di cc giai on khc nhau c xc nh nh sau:

    Giai on ny mm: s ngy ht thc ny mm t vng t gieo m ti lc cy la.

    Giai on chun b t: s ngy yu cu thc hin s chun b t v s ngp nc trc khi cy la. S chun b t thng thng ri vo thi k ny mm.

    H s sinh trng Kc: phn b cho mt trong 6 giai on. V la l cy trng chu ngp, h s sinh trng ca cy trng biu th cc gi tr cho s phi hp hu hiu ca s thot hi nc v bc hi b mt nc. Cc gi tr s bin i t 1 1,2. Vo lc cui thi v gi tr thp hn 0,9 c th c ly tnh ton cho vic lm kh mt ct t.

    Din tch gieo m: din tch c bao ph bi ht thc ny mm s chon gi mt phn ca ton b din tch. Cc yu cu nc cy trng s b gim mt cch cn xng. V vy yu cu vo s liu din tch b che ph bi din tch gieo m l t l phn trm ca ton b din tch trng trt.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 18

    Chiu su t lm i: mt lng nc ti ng k thng thng yu cu trong 2 ln ti. Ln u p dng bo ho (+/-100mm ti 150mm) v sau qu trnh cy ba t, trng trt c thc hin. Trc khi cy, ti 2 ln cho mt lp nc ngp 100mm l hu hiu. Ton b cc yu cu ti cho s chun b t theo kinh nghim ca nhn dn a phng l 100mm.

    Tc thm: ph thuc vo loi t v lng nc c trong t, cc cnh ng la ngp nc s lin tc thm su hn. Qu trnh ny thun li cho s pht trin cy trng v s chuyn ng ca nc s gi oxygen cha ng trong t ti mt mc c th hp l c. Thng thng tc thm 1 1,3mm/ngy.

    Tnh ton ch ti cho la: cc yu cu ti ca la bao gm s kt hp c hiu qu ca s bc hi ton phn, thm v cc yu cu cho s chun b t v ny mm trc khi cy.

    Bc hi ton phn v thm xut hin ngay khi cc cnh ng b ngp nc. Trong thi k ny mm ETo v thm ch c tnh ton trn vng b che ph bi s ny mm. Trong thi k chun b t din tch ny gia tng hng ngy, din tch ngp cng tng ln theo cho ti khi din tch ny b che ph hon ton vo lc cy. Yu t din tch in t my tnh ra ch mc din tch trung bnh c che ph trong thi on 10 ngy mt.

    B. Cc ti liu dng tnh ton

    a. Ti liu kh hu Nhit , m, s gi nng, tc gi cao 2 m so vi mt t c tnh

    theo cc gi tr trung bnh thng nhiu nm ca cc trm kh tng. Kinh , v , cao ca tng trm kh tng cng c quan tm tnh nh hng ca nhn t kh hu ET0 i vi cc yu cu nc ca cy trng. Tn sut c chn trong tnh ton ma ti l 75%. Phn phi lng ma nm ng vi tn sut 75% ca mt s trm tiu biu. Ma hu dng tnh theo phng php ca Vin Nghin Cu Bo V t M.

    Cn c vo iu kin a hnh, ngun nc ti, s phn b ma trn lu vc v cc iu kin kh hu thu vn chia vng nghin cu thnh nhng vng tnh ton theo iu kin kh hu thu vn.

    b. C cu ma v. Nguyn tc c bn xc lp lch thi v l tn dng ti a iu kin thun li ca

    thin nhin, n trnh cc yu t cc oan hn ch ti a ri ro xy ra vi cy trng nh khng trng v thu hoch vo thi im ma tp trung. Thi im tt nht nn xt tnh l thi gian bt u ma v kt thc ma ma tht s, gim thiu lng nc dng trong cc thng lng nc trong h cha kit nht (thng 3 - thng 4). Thi v bt u n kt thc gieo cy 20 ngy vi cc loi cy ngn ngy v di hn i vi cc loi cy lu nm

    c. Yu cu nc cho cng nghip v dn sinh.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 19

    i tng c cung cp nc sinh hot v cng nghip l cc thnh ph, th x, th trn, th t, khu dn c tp trung ng c v cc khu cng nghip. Tnh ton nhu cu nc cho cng nghip v dn sinh da trn c s tnh ton sau:

    Da vo quy m pht trin cc khu dn c ca cc tnh, huyn trong vng d n tnh nhu cu nc cho dn sinh.

    Tiu chun dng nc cho sinh hot tm ly 80 lt/ngi/ngy cho khu vc nng thn v 120 lt/ngi/ngy cho khu vc th trn, th x.

    Tiu chun dng nc trong giai on t nay n nm 2010 ca cc khu cng nghip trc thuc cc tnh, huyn trong vng d n.

    d. Tnh ton yu cu nc n u mi cc cng trnh. Nguyn l tnh ton nh sau: Da vo phng n pht trin nng nghip trong

    tng lai n nm 2010 l gia tng sn phm hng ho v hiu qu kinh t ca cc cy trng truyn thng trn c s s dng ti u t nc s gp phn tng li nhun v thu nhp ca nng dn. Xc nh c din tch c cu cy trng ca tng cng trnh theo khu vc ti, cc cng trnh ly nc trn dng chnh. Din tch canh tc n nm 2010.

    Cn c vo din tch cy trng, mc ti, xc nh lng nc yu cu cho nng nghip ti u mi ca tng cng trnh thuc lu vc nghin cu bng cch ly tng lng nc yu cu mt rung chia cho h s li dng knh v h thng knh. H s li dng ca knh da theo din tch ca khu ti, loi knh v tnh cht t p knh.

    e. Kt qu tnh ton nhu cu nc. Kt qu tnh ton nhu cu nc c trnh by nh bng sau. Tuy nhin y ch

    l nhu cu nc cho nhng vng sau h lu p Du Ting v nhng vng ly nc sau hp lu Tr An v sng B.

  • ________________________________ C:\Documents and Settings\Administrator\My Documents\Tep KQNC-New\5982\5982-8\Baocao.doc 20

    Bng 2-15 : Nhu cu nc d kin nm 2010

    n v (m3/s) S TT Khu ti I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

    I H lu h Du Ting 25,55 24,29 22,85 21,34 13,01 7,38 8,58 9,94 7,16 9,63 15,86 18,44 1 Ven SG 7,86 8,74 6,75 5,48 2,39 0,22 1,42 2,10 0,00 1,79 4,04 3,19 2 D n Hc Mn - Bc Bnh Chnh 9,41 6,67 5,92 5,28 2,34 0,00 0,00 0,56 0,00 0,68 4,57 6,98 3 Tn Hip 0,61 0,29 0,26 0,00 0,14 0,00 0,00 0,07 0,00 0,00 0,04 0,32 4 Sau Rch Tra 0,51 1,43 2,76 3,42 0,98 0,00 0,00 0,05 0,00 0,00 0,05 0,79 5 Cc nh my nc 7,16 7,16 7,16 7,16 7,16 7,16 7,16 7,16 7,16 7,16 7,16 7,16 II Ven sng ng Nai 51,00 53,60 41,20 43,00 39,00 38,00 37,80 38,00 37,60 39,50 48,30 46,10 1 Tiu vng Tn Uyn 2,00 2,10 1,00 0,90 0,40 0,30 0,40 0,40 0,30 0,60 1,80 2,00 2 Tiu vng Vnh Cu 2,40 2,60 1,00 0,50 0,30 0,10 0,30 0,60 0,30 1,00 2,00 2,00 3 Tiu vng Bin Ho (Hu) 0,70 0,60 0,50 0,30 0,10 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,30 0,40 4 Tiu vng Bin Ho (T) 0,80 0,80 0,40 0,30 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,20 0,30 0,40 5 Tiu vng Th c 2,20 3,00 1,20 1,20 1,00 0,40 0,10 0,00 0,00 0,10 0,50 0,90 6 Tiu vng L Bung 1,70 2,20 0,10 1,40 0,10 0,10 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,10 1,70 0,80 7 Tiu vng ng Mn 1,20 1,60 0,10 1,50 0,10 0,10 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,10 1,60 1,00 8 Tiu vng Phc L 3,10 3,80 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,50 3,20 1,70 9 Cc nh my nc 36,90 36,90 36,90 36,90 36,90 36,90 36,90 36,90 36,90 36,90 36,90 36,90 III Ven sng Vm C 22,20 29,67 15,60 18,81 9,58 6,50 5,20 21,56 3,44 18,23 25,00 18,17 Tng 98,75 107,56 79,65 83,15 61,59 51,88 51,58 69,50 48,20 67,36 89,16 82,71

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 21

    2.4. Nhng nghin cu khai thc s dng ti nguyn nc ti nghin cu khoa hc KC12-05 thng 10-1995 ca Phn vin KSQHTL

    Nam B v Nghin cu cn bng, bo v v s dng c hiu qu ngun nc min ng Nam B v khu VI.

    Quy hoch tng th sng ng Nai v vng ph cn ven bin do C quan hp tc quc t Nht Bn JICA thc hin nm 1994-1996; Ni dung quy hoch nh gi tim nng ngun nc v cn bng nc tng th phc v cho ti, cp nc v thu in cho ton lu vc. Trong phn tnh cn bng nc xut chuyn nc t cng trnh Srok Phu Ming trn sng B sang H Du Ting tip nc thm cho sng Vm C ng b sung ngun nc ti cho tnh Long An.

    Quy hoch Thu li vng Tam Gic cng nghip (thng 10-1977) - Nu cc phng n quy hoch cp nc v bin php cng trnh cho nm 2010. D n xc nh nhu cu nc ti mt s nh my nc phc v cp nc cho cng nghip v dn sinh nh Thin Tn, Ho An, Bnh An, Bn Than.

    Quy hoch tng hp ngun nc lu vc sng Si Gn: nh gi chi tit cho lu vc sng Si Gn nhm m bo cc s dng tng hp ngun nc lu vc sng Si Gn. Cc phng n v bin php cng trnh, phn phi dng chy trn sng.

    Nghin cu kh thi cng trnh thu li tng hp Phc Ho Bo co B sung Quy hoch bc thang Thu in sng ng Nai nm 2001

    ca cng ty T vn thu in sng ng Nai. Bo co tng quan qun l ti nguyn nc trong lu vc sng ng Nai thc

    hin bi Cng ty t vn BLACK &VEATCH kt thc thng 7-2004 Mt s cng trnh xut trong d n trn tng bc c thc hin. Ngoi

    ra cn nhiu d n quy m nh do a phng xut, phc v k hoch pht trin ca a phng, hay tiu lu vc.

    2.5. Cng trnh khai thc ti nguyn nc

    2.5.1. Hin trng cng trnh Thu li T sau ngy min Nam gii phng, cng tc thu li c nh nc quan tm, c bit l nhng nm gn y. Nhiu h p trn sng sui pha thng ngun cng nh cng trnh pht in, h thng knh dn phc v ti, tiu h lu xy dng. Nhiu cng trnh pht huy tc dng, mang li hiu qu kinh t, ci thin i sng v mi trng trong vng d n.

    2.5.1.1. Cng trnh h Du Ting + Cc thng s c bn:

    - Din tch lu vc: 2700 Km2 - Dung tch hu ch: 1110 triu m3 - Dung tch cht: 470 triu m3 - Mc nc dng bnh thng: 24,4 m - Mc nc cht: 17,0 m

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 22

    - Mc nc dng gia cng 25,1 m +Nhim v cng trnh a. Nhim v trc mt

    m bo cp nc n nh cho 40.140 ha ven Vm C ng Hon thnh h thng dn nc t chy cho khu ti tnh Ty Ninh l 52.830 ha,

    T.P H ch Minh 12.000 ha m bo c lu lng x xung sng Si Gn v ma kit nh khi cha c h Cp nc cho nh my nc T.P HCM t thng 1 n thng 7 vi Q=7m3/s To ngun m cho cc d n pha h du; Ty Ninh 5.000 ha, Long An 5.000 ha;

    T.P HCM 15.000 ha

    b. Nhim v lu di: Ti trc tip ti 93.390 ha. Trong Ty Ninh 78.830 ha, T.P H Ch Minh l

    14.560 ha To ngun ti cho 40.140 ha, trong Ty Ninh: 16.660 ha, Long An 21.500

    ha v Bnh Dng l 2.000 ha. Theo bo co ca cng ty khai thc thu li Du Ting hin nay ti thc

    khong 64.000 ha v 18.000 ha cho h lu. Ngoi ra cn x v h lu cc thng ma kh y mn trn sng Si Gn, cp nc sinh hot cho tnh Ty Ninh l 2,5m3/s.

    2.5.1.2. Cng trnh h Phc Ho y l d n tng hp ang c nghin cu kh thi, c nhim v chnh: Cp nc CN & dn sinh, Q=17,01m3/s bao gm: TPHCM 10,5m3/s; Bnh

    Dng 2,56 m3/s; Bnh Phc 0,45 m3/s v Ty Ninh 3,5 m3/s. Cp nc ti 58.360 ha NN bao gm: Bnh Long l 5.895 ha; khu ti Bnh

    Dng l 10.128 ha; khu c Ho Long An 28.877 ha; khu Tn Bin Ty Ninh l 13.460 ha

    X hon kit mi trng h du sng B v ti khong 58.000 ha cho ven sng Si Gn v sng Vm C ng

    Ci thin cht lng mi trng nc vng h du sng SG v Vm C ng. Ngoi 2 cng trnh h cha nu trn, c nhiu d n lin quan n ngun nc

    sng ng Nai c cc b, cc ngnh nghin cu. Trong c cc d n ln c Tng cng ty in lc Vit Nam xut, thc hin.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 23

    2.5.2. Cng trnh thu in v h thng thu in bc thang trn sng ng Nai Sng ng Nai l h sng ln nht min Nam Vit Nam, c ngun thu nng

    ng th 2 trong c nc (sau sng ), ngun nc ngt duy nht pht trin kinh t, dn sinh cho khu vc Nam B v cc Nam Trung b.

    Vi hn hai thp k qua xy dng 4 nh my thu in ln l Tr An, Thc M, Hm Thun, a Mi. Nm 2001 Tng cng ty t vn in lc Vit Nam, cng ty t vn in 2 nghin cu Quy hoch bc thang thu in sng ng Nai v bo co b sung thng 8/2002, xut trnh t khai thc cc d n thu in c cng sut > 50MW tip theo ca bc thang sng ng Nai. Theo nghin cu quy hoch bc thang thu in sng ng Nai nm 2001 c 22 d n (khng k Phc Ho). Phn b d n trn cc dng sng nh sau:

    1/ Dng chnh ng Nai : 11 d n xy dng 3 d n l - a Nhim, i Ninh, Tr An.

    2/ Sng La Ng : 4 d n xy dng 2 d n - Hm Thun, a Mi 3/ Sng B : 3 d n xy dng 2 d n - Thc M, Cn n 4/ Nhnh sng nh : 4 d n (cha c d n xy dng) Ngy 29 thng 11 nm 2002, Th tng chnh ph c kin s 1483/CP-CN

    ph duyt Quy hoch khai thc bc thang thu in sng ng Nai gm cc d n, tnh n nay cc cng trnh a vo vn hnh v ang xy dng nh sau:

    a/ Cc cng trnh a vo vn hnh : - a Nhim cng sut 160 MW - Tr An cng sut 400 MW - Thc M cng sut 150 MW - Hm Thun cng sut 300 MW - a Mi cng sut 175 MW - Cn n cng sut 72 MW b/ Cc cng trnh ang xy dng - i Ninh cng sut 300 MW khi cng thng 5 nm 2003 hon thnh thng

    12-2007 - Srok Phu Ming cng sut 51 MW khi cng thng 11 nm 2003 hon

    thnh thng 3 nm 2007 - ng Nai 3+4 cng sut 510 MW:

    ng Nai 3 cng sut 180 MW khi cng thng 12- 2004 hon thnh qu 4/2008

    ng Nai 4 cng sut 340 MW khi cng thng 12- 2004 hon thnh nm 2009

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 24

    c/ Cc cng trnh chun b u t - ng Nai 5 cng sut 173MW - DakTih cng sut 72 MW - Bo Lc cng sut 24 MW - ng Nai 2 cng sut 78 MW - ng Nai 6 cng sut 180MW - ng Nai 8 cng sut 195MW - La Ngu cng sut 36 MW Nh vy ngoi cc d n v ang xy dng cn li cc d n ang nghin

    cu kh thi v nghin cu quy hoch: + Dng chnh ng Nai c 4 d n nghin cu tin kh thi l: ng Nai 2,

    ng Nai 5, ng Nai 6, ng Nai 8. Hai d n ang trong giai on nghin cu quy hoch l a Dung thng, ng Nai 1.

    + Sng La Ng c 2 d n l Bo Lc ang nghin cu kh thi, d n La Ngu ang nghin cu quy hoch.

    + Sng nhnh nh c 4 d n, ch c DakTih ang nghin cu tin kh thi, cn 3 d n ang nghin cu quy hoch l: DamBri, DaSva, DarKeh.

    2.5.3. Cc thng s thit k thu in bc thang Cc thng s thit k c tnh ton trong bo co b sung quy hoch thu in bc thang sng ng Nai do cng ty T vn xy dng in 2 thc hin, Cc trm trn cc dng chnh nh sau: + Dng chnh sng B c 4 bc thang, ln lt t thng lu l: Thc M, Cn n, Srok Phu Ming, Phc Ho. Trong d n Phc Ho khng pht in.

    Bng 2-16: Thng s cng trnh thu in trn sng b

    Hng mc/Tn H Thc M Cn n SroK Phu Ming Phc Ho

    Dt lu vc (Km2) 2200 3325 3822 5193Q Tb (m3/s) 95 134 153 189Cp nc ( m3/ngy) 2400 17,01m3/sTi ven h( ha) 7500 3000 1100 Ti sau h lu (ha) 4800 1400 58360

    Ngun s liu: Trch t bo co quy hoch Bnh Phc

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 25

    +Bc thang trn dng chnh ng Nai Bng 2-17: Cc thng s ca cc d n nghin cu v xy dng

    Cng trnh MND BT MNC V Vc

    V hu ch HTT HTB Qb Qxl Nb Ntk

    m m Tr.m3 Tr.m3 Tr.m3 m m m3/s m3/s MW MW Thc M 218 198 1.370 150 1.220 15,9 3.599 150 Cn n 110 103 150 68 82 4.983 72 Sk.P.Ming 72 70 243 181 23 71,3 15,5 54 Phc Ho 43 41 202 99 103 39,4 - a Nhim 1042 1018 165 9 156 4.500 160 i Ninh 880 855 359 343 156 300 ng Nai 2 690 675 543 303 239 77 78,8 27,9 19,8 78 ng Nai 3 590 560 1.856 608 1.248 94 96,5 27,3 55,4 180 ng Nai 4 480 430 346 87 259 164 169, 28,7 42,5 200 ng Nai 5 290 275 268 162 106 67 74,0 51,0 18,1 72 ng Nai 6 205 180 683 290 393 65 67,0 28,8 30,4 173 ng Nai 8 124 112 1.031 108 923 36 100,4 34,7 180 Tr An 62 50 2.757 215 2.542 18.700 400 Bo Lc 680 679 6,09 5 0,98 70 5,8 3,3 24 a Mi 325 322 140,8 123 17 1.320 175 La Ngu 173 171 40 36 4 46 47,4 18,7 10,2 36 DakRTih 608 603 137 102 5 187 70 Du Ting 24 17 1.560 394 1.166 2.800

    Trn y l cc thng s ca cc d n c lp xp th t t thng ngun tr

    xung ca sng B, sng ng Nai, sng nhnh La Ng v sng Si Gn. Theo bo co d n thu in 2001-76 ca cng ty t vn xy dng in 2 d n Quy hoch bc thang thu in sng ng Nai s c 4 d n hon thnh trc nm 2010 l: i Ninh, ng Nai 3+4, Srok Phu Ming. Cn li cc d n khc s tip tc thc hin nm 2025 xy dng ng Nai 5 v ng Nai 6.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 26

    2.6. Quy hoch chuyn nc trong lu vc

    2.6.1. Hin trng v d n chuyn nc trong lu vc Trong lu vc sng ng Nai hin nay nghin cu v thc hin cc d n chuyn nc t tiu lu vc ny sang tiu lu vc khc. C th: +Hai d n thc hin:

    - D n a Nhim (Lm ng + Ninh Thun). - D n bm cp nc t sng ng Nai n tnh B Ra-Vng Tu.

    + Hai d n ang thi cng v u t: - - D n thu in i Ninh (Lm ng) hin ang thi cng s chuyn nc

    cho Bnh Thun. - D n Phc Ho s chuyn nc t sng B qua h Du Ting n lu vc

    sng Si Gn v Vm C ng. + Hai d n ang nghin cu, cha quyt nh:

    - D n La Ngu chuyn nc sng La Ng n ven bin ti cho 8.000 ha thuc Bnh Thun

    - D n chuyn nc ti sng Ray ti cho 10.000 ha bng bm. 2.6.2. D kin m rng h thng cung cp nc mt hin c trong khu vc.

    Thc t v yu cu cung cp nc ca vng d n, c bit l vng h lu nhng nm ti l rt ln. D tnh cc khu vc ven Quc l 51 ly nc t cc h cha: L Bung, Sui C, Vng, sng Xoi, sng Ray. Cc trm bm li s ly nc t h du sng ng Nai, Si Gn cung cp cho thnh ph v khu cng nghip thuc T.P H Ch Minh v ng Nai s c m rng.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 27

    - M rng trm bm Ho An t 650.000 m3/ngy m ln 1.200.000 m3/ngy m.

    - Xy dng trm bm Thin Tn cng sut l 800.000 m3/ngy m - Trm Bn Than hin xy dng vi cng sut l 600.000 m3/ngy em

    Nh vy cc d n trn ch chuyn nc t tiu lu vc ny sang tiu lu vc khc. Ngoi cc d n v ang thc hin, cc d n chuyn nc phc v ti tiu v quy hoch tng hp hin cn ang trong giai on nghin cu. Hin cha c d n chuyn nc ra ngoi lu vc.

    3. XY DNG M HNH M PHNG PHNG N KHAI THC S DNG TI NGUYN NC VNG THNG LU

    3.1. M hnh cn bng nc MIKE BASIN

    3.1.1. Khi qut v m hnh MIKE BASIN Nh nu trn trong nghin cu ny m hnh MIKE BASIN c ng dng

    xy dng m hnh cn bng nc v cht lng nc i vi thng trung lu lu vc sng ng Nai. Mt s c trng ca phn mm MIKE BASIN c tm tt nh sau:

    MIKE BASIN l m hnh m phng phn b ngun nc th hin tnh thu vn ca lu vc v mt thi gian v khng gian. V mt k thut, n l mt m hnh mng sng trong sng v cc nhnh sng c biu th bng mng li cc nhnh v nt. Nhnh sng biu din cho cc dng chy ring l trong khi cc nt th biu din cc im hi t ca sng, im chuyn nc hoc l v tr m c din ra cc hot ng lin quan n ngun nc hay nhng v tr quan trng m kt qu m hnh yu cu. MIKE BASIN l mt phn m rng ca ArcView GIS nhm cc thng tin GIS c th s dng trong m phng ti nguyn nc.

    Hnh 3-1: Khi nim c bn ca MIKE BASIN v m hnh phn b ngun nc

    Reservoirsubmodel

    Irrigationsubmodel

    Hydrologicaltimeseries

    Networkconfiguration

    Water supply &irrigation data

    Meteorologicaltimeseries

    Reservoirdata

    Water Use Simulation Model

    Simulated timeseries of runoff Performance of reservoirs and irrigation schemes

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 28

    3.1.2 Cu trc m hnh MIKE BASIN MIKE BASIN hot ng trn c s mng li sng c s ho xy dng trc

    tip trn mn hnh my tnh trong mi trng Arcview GIS. Tt c nhng thng tin lin quan n hnh dng ca mt mng m phng dng chy, v tr s dng nc, h cha, im ly nc cng nh im thot nc. Cu trc m hnh MIKE BASIN c th hin nh hnh sau.

    Hnh 3-2: S m hnh MIKE BASIN

    3.1.3. Yu cu s liu ca MIKE BASIN u vo c bn ca m hnh bao gm d liu chui thi gian v dng chy ca

    lu vc. Cc file u vo b sung xc nh c tnh v quy tc vn hnh ca tng h cha, chui thi gian kh tng thu vn v d liu thch hp cho tng cng trnh cp nc hay cng trnh thu li nh cc yu cu v chuyn dng v cc thng tin khc m t dng chy hi quy.

    3.1.4. Vng nghin cu Trong nghin cu ny, ton b phn thng trung lu cc lu vc sng ng

    Nai v vng ph cn c xem xt a vo trong nghin cu xy dng m hnh cn bng nc. V tr vng nghin cu v cc nt lin quan s dng trong m phng c th hin nh hnh sau.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 29

    Hnh 3-3: Lu vc h thng sng ng Nai v vung ph cn

    Hnh 3-4: Phm vi vng nghin cu v v tr cc nt nghin cu trong xy dng m hnh

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 30

    3.1.5. S ho vng nghin cu trong MIKE BASIN Mt trong nhng vic trong xy dng m hnh cn bng nc MIKE BASIN l cn phi s ho mng li sng v cc cng trnh, v tr s dng nc... trong vng nghin cu. S ho vng nghin cu trong MIKE BASIN c th hin nh hnh sau: Hnh 3-5: S m hnh MIKE BASIN lu vc h thng sng ng Nai v vng

    ph cn

    3.1.6. Hiu chnh m hnh MIKE BASIN cho vng nghin cu

    3.1.6.1 S liu Cc s liu lin quan s dng trong hiu chnh m hnh bao gm: 1. Cc s liu v in lng v dng chy thc t o c ti cc cng trnh thu

    in gm: Tr An t 1993 n nm 1999 Thc M t nm 1995 n nm 1999 a Nhim t nm 1994- n nm 1999

    2. Cc thng s ca cc cng trnh nh ng quan h h cha, cc thng s c bn...

    3. Cc s liu v bc hi b mt h cha, thm... khai thc ngun nc phc v pht trin kinh t, trn LVSN xy dng

    nhiu cng trnh thu li nh h cha, trm bm, trm thu in n nay xy dng c nhiu cng trnh ti cho khong 497.192 ha cy trng cc loi, trong din tch ti ch yu tp trung vng h lu sng ng Nai, Si Gn v Vm C. Trn lu vc xy dng 5 trm thu in l a Nhim, Tr An, Thc M, Hm

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 31

    Thun-a Mi, Cn n vi tng cng sut lp my l 1.254MW. Hin nay trn lu vc c nhiu nh my cp nc sinh hot cho khong 6.977.000 ngi sng ti cc th vi tng cng sut cp nc vo khong 1.350.000m3/ngy. m bo duy tr khng cho mn xm nhp su vo vng h lu sng ng Nai cn phi duy tr trn dng chnh sng ng Nai ti Ho An mt lu lng ti thiu l 100m3/s v ti Bn Than trn sng Si Gn mt lu lng ti thiu l 20m3/s.

    LVSN c s ho bng mng li cc nhnh sng v nt, cc tiu lu vc v cc cng trnh tch nc, cp nc, chuyn nc v.v ti cc v tr thch hp trn mng li sng. M hnh c thit lp trc tip trong mi trng ArcView v mi thng s, thng tin lin quan n m hnh c nhp trc tip trong mi trng ArcView. M hnh LVSN c thit lp trn c s ca 36 tiu lu vc. Ti mi tiu lu vc c cc cng trnh cp nc cho ti, sinh hot, thu in. Trong s ca trng hp m t hin trng c 7 h cha a Nhim, Tr An, Thc M, Du Ting, Hm Thun, a Mi, v Cn n, c 35 khu ti, 34 im cp nc sinh hot, v 6 nh my thu in l a Nhim, Tr An, Thc M, Hm Thun, a Mi v Cn n.

    M hnh c tin hnh hiu chnh cc thng s m bo m hnh c th m phng chnh xc vic s dng nc v vn hnh ca cc cng trnh thuc h thng. Do ti liu quan trc ca cc cng trnh h cha khng ng nht v thi gian nn vin hiu chnh m hnh cho tng h cha c thc hin vi cc thi gian khc nhau. C th, i vi h a Nhim thi gian chy hiu chnh l t 1-1995 n 12-1998, h Tr An l t 1-1994 n 6-1999 v h Thc M t 1-1996 n 12-1999. Kt qu hiu chnh c trnh by trong cc hnh sau.

    Kt qu hiu chnh m hnh cho thy m hnh c xy dng c th m phng li qu trnh vn hnh ca cc cng trnh trn LVSN v p dng m phng cho cc trng hp s dng nc trong tng lai.

    3.1.6.2 Kt qu hiu chnh Hnh 3-6: Kt qu hiu chnh m hnh ti a Nhim

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 32

    Hnh 3-7: Kt qu hiu chnh m hnh ti Thc M

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 33

    Hnh 3-8: Kt qu hiu chnh m hnh ti Tr An

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 34

    3.1.7. ng dng m hnh m phng cc phng n pht trin hin trng 2000, d kin nm 2010, v 2020

    phn tch cc trng hp s dng nc trn lu, cc phng n c xy dng v a vo m hnh m phng. Ba phng n c xy dng l : phng n hin trng (2000), phng n pht trin n nm 2010 v phng n 2020. Nhu cu nc ca cc phng n pht trin c tng hp nh bng sau:

    Bng 3-1: Nhu cu nc theo cc phng n pht trin trn lu vc

    Hin trng (2000) n nm 2010 n nm 2020 Tiu lu vc m3 m3/s m3 m3/s m3 m3/s

    Tng 6.032.804.758 191,4 8.467.125.018 268,5 9.264.038.015 293,8 Trong , - LVSN 4807849424 152,54 6110009199 193,7 6976846512 221,2 - Vng p.cn 1224955335 38,86 2357115819 74,74 2287191503 72,53

    I. Thng trung lu 415209345 13,17 562975177 17,85 584913027 18,55 a Nhim 3339923 0,11 11267973 0,36 11745115 0,37 i Ninh 66155968 2,10 87692564 2,78 87838243 2,79 N1 92760244 2,94 92996617 2,95 95973811 3,04 N2 33255675 1,06 28722590 0,91 27334967 0,87 N3 12360773 0,39 11091021 0,35 10318834 0,33 N4 73952 0,00 161332 0,01 213817 0,01 N5 49382587 1,57 51889713 1,65 59008296 1,87 N6 33821848 1,07 30160307 0,96 27943644 0,89 N8 95781382 3,04 124078732 3,93 122943412 3,90 Tr An 28276992 0,90 124914328 3,96 141592887 4,49 II. Lu vc La Ng 224430554 7,12 684093481 21,69 722925773 22,92 Hm Thun 58955877 1,87 114265998 3,62 168467890 5,34 T Pao 3053281 0,10 3946031 0,13 3936387 0,12 V t 162421396 5,15 565881452 17,94 550521496 17,46 III. Lu vc sng B 140498981 4,46 378461931 12,00 400438376 12,70 Thc M 45466334 1,44 51359860 1,63 57925296 1,84 Cn n 14676965 0,47 49655787 1,57 50314520 1,60 Srock Phu Ming 19681571 0,62 37111193 1,18 38513310 1,22 Phc Ho 24901775 0,79 29601734 0,94 43884182 1,39 Ca sng 35772337 1,13 210733356 6,68 209801068 6,65 IV. Lu vc Si Gn 1008678854 32,00 1220227293 38,69 1496600806 47,46 Du Ting 15278313 0,48 43455617 1,38 59349880 1,88 Th Du Mt 278930758 8,85 265695400 8,43 305585491 9,69 Ca sng 714469783 22,67 911076276 28,89 1131665436 35,88 IV. East Vam Co Basin

    2479264797 78,66 2466653441 78,22 2586687074 82,02

    G Du H 1359583552 43,14 1391899738 44,14 1374229127 43,58 An H 857937592 27,22 769418583 24,40 877119772 27,81 Ca sng 261743653 8,30 305335120 9,68 335338174 10,63 VI. H lu ng Nai 539766892 17,13 797597877 25,29 1185281457 37,59 Ct Li 224213742 7,11 346096855 10,97 513673509 16,29 LV S. Dinh BRVT 81341545 2,58 101119403 3,21 178100870 5,65 Ca Soi Rp 234211606 7,43 350381619 11,11 493507078 15,65

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 35

    Hin trng (2000) n nm 2010 n nm 2020 Tiu lu vc m3 m3/s m3 m3/s m3 m3/s

    VII. Cc sng ven bin 1224955335 38,86 2357115819 74,74 2287191503 72,53 LV S. Ci Phan Rang 577513378 18,32 716008314 22,70 725057944 22,99 LV S. Lng Sng 36762097 1,17 101933186 3,23 97024273 3,08 LV S. Lu 110422260 3,50 424346577 13,46 394973540 12,52 LV S. Quao 269272787 8,54 331335167 10,51 309332432 9,81 LV S. C Ty 49437877 1,57 159822358 5,07 151450217 4,80 LV S. Phan 20509105 0,65 60282272 1,91 56890953 1,80 LV S. Dinh 48227088 1,53 140227252 4,45 137742740 4,37 LV S. Ray 112810743 3,58 423160694 13,42 414719405 13,15

    3.1.7.1 Phng n hin trng (2000) Phng n hin trng s dng s v cc thng s ca m hnh hiu chnh

    tin hnh m phng. Phng n hin trng m phng vn hnh ca lu vc sng vi nhu cu nc nm 2000. Thi on tin hnh m phng t 1-1-1978 n 31-12-2000 vi bc thi gian l ngy. S m hnh ca phng n hin trng v kt qu m phng dng chy ti cc v tr: hp lu ca sng ng Nai vi sng B, ti hp lu sng ng Nai vi sng Si Gn v ti ca sng ng Nai ra bin.

    Hnh 3-9: S LVSN trong phng n hin trng (2000)

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 36

    Hnh 3-10: Kt qu dng chy trong phng n 2000

    0

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    M 3/S

    D N -B E D N -S AIG O N C U A S O N G D N

    Kt qu t m hnh trong phng n hin trng cho thy ngun nc trn lu

    vc hin cn rt di do v tm quan trng ca cc h cha ln i vi vic iu tit ngun nc gia ma ma v ma kh. Lu lng dng chy thp nht ti ca sng l vo thng IV t 315m3/s. Tng cng sut pht in trung bnh nhiu nm ca ton lu vc l 668 MW.

    3.1.7.2 Phng n 2010 Phng n 2010 c xy dng trn c s cc k hoch pht trin ngun nc

    d kin n 2010 ca lu vc. Theo d kin n 2010 trn lu vc s xy dng thm cc h cha i Ninh, ng Nai 3, ng Nai 4, Srok Phu Ming v p Phc Ho. p Phc Ho s chuyn nc sang h Du Ting cp nc ti m rng cho cc khu ti thuc lu vc sng Si Gn v Vm C. H cha i Ninh cng chuyn nc sang lu vc sng Lu pht in v cp nc ti cho khu ti ca lu vc sng Lu. Cc nh my thu in s c xy dng l i Ninh, ng Nai 3, ng Nai 4, Srok Phu Ming. Din tch ti ca cc khu ti c m rng ln n 702.000 ha. Dn s trn lu vc d kin tng ln 17,5 triu ngi, vi dn s thnh th d kin l 10,2 triu ngi. m bo duy tr sinh thi sau p Phc Ho, mt lu lng ti thiu phi x xung sau p l 14m3/s. Thi on tin hnh m phng t 1-1-1978 n 31-12-2000 vi bc thi gian l ngy. S m hnh ca phng n 2010 v kt qu m phng ca phng n 2010 c trnh by trong cc hnh sau.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 37

    Hnh 3-11: S LVSN trong phng n 2010

    Hnh 3-12: Kt qu dng chy trong phng n 2010

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    2 5 0

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    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2T H N G

    M 3 /S

    D N - B E D N - S A IG O N C U A S O N G D N

    Kt qu m phng t phng n 2010 cho thy ngun nc trn lu vc c gim st trong cc thng ma kh nguyn nhn l do lng nc s cho cc i tng dng nc tng vt so vi nm 2000 nhng li cha xy dng thm cc h cha c dung tch ln iu tit. Lu lng kit nht vo thng IV l 205 m3/s, thp hn n 110 m3/s so vi phng n hin trng. Tng cng sut pht in trung bnh nm t 995 MW.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 38

    3.1.7.3 Phng n 2020 Tng t nh phng n 2010, phng n 2020 cng c xy dng trn c s

    cc k hoch pht trin ngun nc n nm 2020 ca lu vc sng ng Nai. n nm 2020, trn lu vc d kin s xy dng thm cc h cha v nh my thu in ng Nai 5, ng Nai 6, ng Nai 8. Din tch ti ca cc khu ti m rng ln 778.000 ha. Dn s trn ton lu vc d kin s l 21,6 triu ngi trong dn s sng thnh th l 13 triu ngi. Thi on tin hnh m phng t 1-1-1978 n 31-12-2000 vi bc thi gian l ngy. S m hnh ca phng n 2020 v kt qu m phng ca phng n 2020 c trnh by trong cc hnh sau.

    Hnh 3-13: S LVSN trong phng n 2020

    Hnh 3-14: Kt qu dng chy trong phng n 2010

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    DN-BE DN-SAIGON CUA SONG DN

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 39

    Kt qu t m hnh cho thy n nm 2020 do c xy dng thm cc h cha

    ln nn ngun nc tng ln thm trong ma kh ln hn so vi nm 2010 v lu lng trong cc thng ma l h thp hn trc y. Lu lng dng chy thp nht ti ca sng l 263 m3/s xy ra vo thng II, cao hn so vi phng n 2010 nhng vn cn thp hn phng n hin trng. Tng cng sut pht in trung bnh nm t 1.363 MW.

    3.1.8. nh gi s b kt qu m phng cc phng n Kt qu t m hnh ca cc phng n s dng nc cho thy mc d nhu cu

    s dng nc n nm 2010 v 2020 tng cao nhng ngun nc ca lu vc vn c kh nng cung cp v bo m mn khng xm nhp su vo ni a nu cc cng trnh h cha ln c xy dng kp thi. Kt qu t cc phng n c th s dng lm bin u vo cho m hnh thu ng lc cho vng h lu nh hng thu triu ca LVSN.

    Hnh 3-15: Kt qu dng chy ti hp lu N-sng B

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    Hnh 3-16: Kt qu dng chy ti hp lu N-sng Si Gn

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  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 40

    Hnh 3-17: Kt qu dng chy ti ca sng N

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    2000 2010 2020

    4. M PHNG DIN BIN THU LC VNG H LU DO CC TC NG PHT TRIN

    4.1. M hnh thu lc VRSAP vng h lu sng ng Nai-Si Gn

    4.1.1. Khi qut chung vng nghin cu H lu ng Nai-Si Gn (N-SG) l vng t c tnh t sau thc Tr An

    trn sng ng Nai, t sau p Du Ting trn sng Si Gn v gii hn n ht b t knh M Bnh-Bo Bo. Din tch t nhin ton vng khong 452.000 ha, bao gm phn t thuc a phn cc tnh ng Nai, Sng B, Ty Ninh, B Ra-Vng Tu, Long An v thnh ph H Ch Minh, trong lu vc v ang hnh thnh nhiu trung tm cng nghip v khu dn c tp trung ln trong thnh ph H Ch Minh (HCM) l mt trong nhng trung tm chnh tr, kinh t, vn ho v khoa hc k thut quan trng ca c nc; ngoi ra, cc tnh thnh chung quanh thnh ph HCM pht trin nhanh chng gip cho b mt vng h lu c tc tng trng kinh t ng u trong c nc.

    Tng trng vng h lu trong nhng nm va qua thc y vic th ho, gip b mt cc thnh ph thm thng thong v khang trang hn. Tuy nhin, vng h lu c h thng sng chu nh hng ca ch bn nht triu bin ng rt mnh nn vi a hnh tng i thp kt hp vi mng li sng rch chng cht h lu (N-SG) khin lu tc dng chy din bin phc tp, c nhng vng nc chy xoy chy xit gy xi l, c nhng vng gip nc gy t ng v bi lng. Vo ma ma l, vng h lu cn chu nh hng ma cc b vi cng sut ln, bi l thng ngun trn hai sng ng Nai, sng Si Gn v nh hng bi l trn t ng bng sng Cu Long (BSCL) sang lu vc sng Si Gn.

    Bo co tnh ton thu lc vng ngp h lu l mt chuyn trong ti nhm phn tch bin i ch dng chy vng h lu sng ng Nai-Si Gn khi c cc phng n cng trnh thng ngun (h cha) v cc phng n cng trnh h lu.

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 41

    4.1.2. c im dng chy h lu sng ng Nai Si Gn

    4.1.2.1 c im t nhin: Vng h lu vc ng Nai- Si Gn nm trong vng chuyn tip t cao nguyn

    sang vng ng bng v vy a hnh ni y bin i kh phc tp. Do gn lin vi min ng Nam b nn vi ni cn c dng a hnh i, g ko di v thc su xung vng ng bng nh C Chi, Th c, Long Bnh.... Nhng g i ny c cao t 5-15 m. Khu vc ven sng ng Nai, Si Gn, Vm C ng a phn l vng t thp, kh bng phng c a hnh ging nh min ng bng chu th vi cao trnh trung bnh t 0,5 -2,0m. Ngc li trong vng cn c nhng di t trng c cao trnh trung bnh khong 0,3 - 0,5 m nh khu rng c huyn Cn Gi, ven sng Th Vi, dc knh Thy Cai-An H;

    Nhng sng, knh, rch ln ng k trong vng bao gm: - H lu sng ng Nai c k t sau thc Tr An n ca Soi Rp c chiu

    di 150 km, t hp lu sng B n Nh B di 76 km, rng khong 180-1400 m vi su t 6,6-17m, sau Nh B sng ng Nai r thnh hai phn lu cch bin 76 km: sng Nh B rng 1000-3000m vi su 10-20m, sng Lng Tu rng 300-450m vi su 30-40m, y l tuyn thu l quan trng t Tp. H Ch Minh i cc tnh v ra nc ngoi. Do sng i qua vng ng bng, lng sng kh rng, su, c dc nh nn thu triu nh hng n tn chn thc Tr An. Cc ph lu chnh chy vo sng ng Nai bn phi c sng B, sng Si Gn, sng Vm C, bn tri ng k c sng L Bung. Sng Th Vi di 30 km trc tip ra vnh Gnh Ri vi b rng t 200-400m v su t 8-20 m.

    - Sng Si Gn sau p Du Ting n hp lu vi sng ng Nai di 145 km, rng khong 90-500m vi su t 5,5-23 m.

    - Sng VC sau hp lu Bn n ng ba sng Vm C di khong 160 km, rng khong 100-310m vi su t 8,0-15 m. Sng Vm C Ty k t p Bnh Chu n ng ba sng Vm C di khong 155 km, rng hong 160-500m vi su t 9,9-19 m.

    - Ni sng Si Gn v Vm C ng c rch Tra-Thy Cai-Trng Bng di 48 Km, rng khong 20-50m, knh An H, knh Xng di 30 Km, rng khong 25-35m, sng Bn Lc-Kinh i-Kinh T di 40 Km, rng 25-70 m, rch Cy Kh, rch Cn Giuc, sng Rch Cc di 44 Km, rng khong 70-300m.

    - Knh i-knh T-Tu H-Bn Ngh l 2 knh song song vi nhau nm theo hng Ty-ng ni sng Vm C ng vi sng Si Gn. Chiu di knh Tu H-Bn Ngh khong 13.000 m, b rng 20-35 m, cao trnh y knh -1,5:-3,5 m, chiu di knh i-knh T khong 14.500 m, b rng 35-50 m, cao trnh y knh 3,0 n -8,3 m.

    - Knh Tham Lng-Bn Ct-Nc Ln vi chiu di khong 32.250 m, on sng Bn Ct thng ra sng Si Gn rng 60-80 m, su 3,0 n -7,5 m, on ni t cu Tham Lng n cu Bnh Thun c lng knh 7-10 m cao

  • ti KC08.29: Nghin cu cc gii php khoa hc cng ngh n nh lng dn h lu h thng sng ng Nai-Si Gn phc v pht trin kinh t x hi vng ng Nam B

    Chuyn 7a : Cc gii php khoa hc n nh lng dn h lu 42

    trnh +0,5 n +1,4 m, t cu Bnh Thun n cu An Lc lng dn hp v nng, phn cn li thng ra rch Nc Ln kh rng 30-40 m v su t 2,0 n 4,0 m.

    - Knh Rch Tra-Thy Cai-An H-knh Xng-knh C vi tng chiu di 125.660 m, b rng bnh qun 30-70 m, cao trnh y knh t 1,5m n 3,0m; ba knh chnh Thy Cai, An H, rch Tra chm li ng ba cu Bng (QL22) v ni ra 3 sng chnh l sng Si Gn (ca rch Tra), sng Vm C ng u rch Trng Bng v sng Bn Lc.

    - Knh khu vc qun 2, qun 9 v qun Th c c tn