ghg transpord schade martino 101116 - trt trasporti e ...objective of ghg-transpord suggestion of an...

GHG-TransPoRD:r e d u c i n g g r e e n h o u s e g a s e m i s s i o n s o f t r a n s p o r t b e y o n d

F i n d i n g s o n E u r o p e a n R & D a n d G H G r e d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l s

r e d u c i n g g r e e n h o u s e g a s e m i s s i o n s o f t r a n s p o r t b e y o n d 2 0 2 0 : L i n k i n g R & D , t r a n s p o r t p o l i c i e s a n d r e d u c t i o n t a r g e t s

F i n d i n g s o n E u r o p e a n R & D a n d G H G r e d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l s

D W lf S h dDr. Wolfgang SchadeFraunhofer-ISICoordinator of GHG-TransPoRD

A l M tiAngelo MartinoTrasporti e Territorio Srl, TRT

Seite 1Schade/MartinoPrimo Forum tedesco-italiano per la mobilità – Bergamo, 25th November 2010

Agenda

The GHG-TransPoRD project R&D and innovations in the transport sector GHG reduction potentials in road sectorp GHG reduction potentials in rail sector GHG reduction potentials in maritime sector


Objec t i ve o f GHG-TransPoRD

Suggestion of an integrated strategy for the EU that links R&D policy for transport with aSuggestion of an integrated strategy for the EU that links R&D policy for transport with a transport policy strategy such that the European GHG reduction targets for 2020 and 2050 can be met also for transport.

Expected results: Reduction targets for transport R&D strategy R&D strategy Transport policy strategy

Project framework Funded by European 7th Research Framework Programme (~950 k€) Project duration 24 months (Oct. 1st 2009 to Sept. 30th 2011)j ( p ) Five project partners from five European countries


Pro jec t s teps o f GHG-TransPoRD

Analysis of R&D efforts in transport Analysis of innovation system and diffusion of innovations in transport sector Measures for GHG reductions (long list)( g ) Potentials of GHG reductions of measures (short list) Cost analysis of GHG reduction measures Scenarios and integrated assessment of R&D strategies and policy strategies Scenarios and integrated assessment of R&D strategies and policy strategies


R & D a n d i n n o v a t i o n s i n t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o rR & D a n d i n n o v a t i o n s i n t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r


St ruc tu re o f sec to ra l sys tem o f innova t ion( K u h l m a n n & A r n o l d 2 0 0 1 )

Framework conditionsDemand

( K u h l m a n n & A r n o l d , 2 0 0 1 )

Financial environment; taxation and

Ed i d P liti lI d t i l

Financial environment; taxation and incentives; propensity to innovation and entrepreneurship; mobility ...

Consumers (final demand)Producers (intermediate demand)

Intermediaries

Education andResearch System

Political System

IndustrialSystem

Professional education and

Large companies GovernmentIntermediaries training

Higher education and research

Mature SMEs ResearchinstitutesBrokers

R&I policies

Public sector research

New, technology-based firms Governance

InfrastructureBanking,

venture capitalIPR and

informationInnovation and

business supportStandards and norms

Potential reachof public policies


L o w c a r b o n a u t o m o b i l e i n d u s t r y i n n o v a t i o n s y s t e m

Framework conditionsDemandFinancial environment; taxation and i ti it t i ti

Consumers (final demand)

Market Regulation

ValuesOld / young incentives; propensity to innovation

and entrepreneurship; mobility ...

( )Producers (intermediate demand)

Old / young

Transport Infrastructure

Lobby Network

Education andResearch System

Political System

Industrial System

Professional Vehicle producers Service operators

es M, G

ATT)

prod

ucer

s

Auto majors Logistics / Services EUeducation and training

Higher education and research

NationalGovernment

deof

vehi

cle

quot

as, C

DM

ener

atio

n, o

il p Auto majors

OEMs

R&D Departments

Logistics / Services EUGovernment

Public sector research

R&I policies

Gnatio

nal t

rad

l pol

icie

s(q

tries

: pow

er g

e

Niche companies (not small companies)

Knowledge Networks (e.g. Joint ventures)

Innovation InfrastructureBanking,

venture capitalIPR and

informationStandards and norms

Governance

SubsidiesR&D support

Inte

rn

nter

natio

na

Ene

rgy

indu

st

Climate and environment policy


e u e cap ainformationa d o s R&D support In

Political impactsSource: GHG-TransPoRD D1

R&D o f European t ranspor t sec to r in the g loba l t tcon tex t

R&D investment(€bn)

Sales(€bn)

Number of employees(million)

World EU27 World EU27 World EU27Automotivemanufacturers

53 20.9 1,213 423 2.76 1.26

Automotiveli

19.6 9.5 437 156 2.33 0.98suppliers

Commercialvehicles and trucks

6.9 2.4 233 66 0.62 0.22

Aerospace and 15 6 7 5 379 129 1 74 0 55Aerospace and defence

15.6 7.5 379 129 1.74 0.55

'Transport' sector 95.1 40.3 2,262 774 7.5 3

All i d t i 431 130 13 897 5 712 45 1 21All industries 431 130 13,897 5,712 45.1 21Source: GHG-TransPoRD D1, based on EU Scoreboard 2009 (DG RTD-IPTS, 2009) (rounded numbers)


Dis t r ibu t ion o f European au tomot ive R&D f f t f GHG d t ie f fo r ts – focus on GHG reduc t ions

Total R&D R&D for GHG reductionsTotal R&D R&D for GHG reductions

R&D GHG i i

R&D - Other R&D activities (safety, comfort,

etc.)

Conventional engines (€5-6bn)

Biofuels

Electric vehicles

(€1.4-1.7bn)

R&D - GHG emissions reduction

sOth GHG

(ca. €0.4bn)

Fuel cells (€0.5-0.6bn)

~€32bn €10-11bn

Other GHG emission reduction

technologies

R&D - Air pollutant emissions reduction

~€13.5bn

Source: GHG-TransPoRD D1


European pa ten ts in hybr id and e lec t r i ch i l b t d i dveh ic les by coun t ry and per iod

DE

2000‐2003

2004‐2007DE

FR

IT

1996‐1999

GB

SE

AT

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1992‐1995 NL

FI

RoEU270% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% RoEU27



St ra teg ies to deve lop e lec t r i c veh ic les (EVs) ( S t a t u s A p r i l 2 0 1 0 )( S t a t u s A p r i l 2 0 1 0 )

Automotive manufacturer Automotive supplier Electricity supplierBattery manufacturerAutomotive manufacturer Automotive supplier Electricity supplierBattery manufacturer JV = Joint Venture

Michelin

Valeo

HondaJV ‘Bl E ’

General Motors

HitachiLG ChemHyundaiJV ‘HL Green Power Co.’

Dong Energy Tesla MotorsJV

Michelin

Valeo

HondaJV ‘Bl E ’

General Motors

HitachiLG ChemHyundaiJV ‘HL Green Power Co.’

Dong Energy Tesla MotorsJV

PSA Mit bi hi

GS YuasaEDFToyota

Panasonic

JV ‘Lithium Energy Japan’

JV ‘Blue Energy’

JV ‘Panasonic Electric Vehicle Energy’

Renault

Nissan

CEAF.S.I.‘Better Place

Denmark’A123 Systems

SAIC MotorJV

PSA Mit bi hi

GS YuasaEDFToyota

Panasonic

JV ‘Lithium Energy Japan’

JV ‘Blue Energy’

JV ‘Panasonic Electric Vehicle Energy’

Renault

Nissan

CEAF.S.I.‘Better Place

Denmark’A123 Systems

SAIC MotorJV

PSA MitsubishiPanasonic

NEC TOKIN Corp.JV AESC

ToshibaMagna Int.Sanyo

VARTAJV

Suzuki

PSA MitsubishiPanasonic

NEC TOKIN Corp.JV AESC

ToshibaMagna Int.Sanyo

VARTAJV

Suzuki

SaftDaimler Evonik BASFJV ‘LIB 2015’

JV ‘Li-Tec’

FORDVattenfallVARTA

Microbattery

ContinentalJV

(Volvo, Sweden)

BYDVolkswagenJV

JVSaft

Daimler Evonik BASFJV ‘LIB 2015’

JV ‘Li-Tec’

FORDVattenfallVARTA

Microbattery

ContinentalJV

(Volvo, Sweden)

BYDVolkswagenJV

JV

Johnson Controls Bosch

Samsung SDIBMWJV ‘SB LiMotive’

CobasysE.ON

RWE

Enax

Enel(e.g. Munich)

(e.g. Berlin)‘e-mobility Berlin’‘e-mobility Italy’

Johnson Controls Bosch

Samsung SDIBMWJV ‘SB LiMotive’

CobasysE.ON

RWE

Enax

Enel(e.g. Munich)

(e.g. Berlin)‘e-mobility Berlin’‘e-mobility Italy’




E s t i m a t i n g G H G r e d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l s : e n e r g y f r a m e w o r kE s t i m a t i n g G H G r e d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l s : e n e r g y f r a m e w o r k


Reference energy demand t rend up to 2050(b d i P J / )( b y m o d e i n P J / y e a r )

GHG‐TransPoRD Energy Framework

30000

25000

30000[PJ]

Air

15000

20000Ship

Rail

5000

10000Rail

Road

0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Source: GHG-TransPoRD D2


Reference energy demand t rend up to 2050(b f l t i P J / )( b y f u e l t y p e i n P J / y e a r )

GHG‐TransPoRD Energy Framework

30,000

25,000

30,000[PJ]

Biofuel (road)

Hydrogen

Electricity (rail)

15,000

20,000 Electricity (rail)

Kerosene (air)

CNG (car)

LPG (car)

5,000

10,000( )

Diesel (ship)

Diesel (road & rail)

Gasoline (road)

‐

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Source: GHG-TransPoRD D2


G H G r e d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l s i n r o a d s e c t o rG H G r e d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l s i n r o a d s e c t o r


E x a m p l e f a c t s h e e t e x p l a i n i n g G H G r e d u c t i o n m e a s u r e s

The group of measures assigned to “aerodynamics and resistance” contains measures that aim atreducing the aerodynamic resistance, the mechanical resistance of tires and the friction within engines inpassenger cars.

“Aerodynamics and resistance” summaryDescription

gAerodynamics and resistance consists of a combination of five measures:

improved aerodynamics (e.g. via smooth under flow or lower car bodies), reduced engine friction losses, low resistance tires (reducing energy wasted as heat),

tire pressure monitoring system (controlling if the tire pressure is efficient)

Measures included

tire-pressure monitoring system (controlling if the tire pressure is efficient), low viscosity lubricants (decreasing the mechanical friction in engines)

Energy intensityPartially already implemented

2020 EU27 7% for all passenger cars

Field of influenceEarliest implementation dateRelative CO2 2020 EU27 % o a passe ge ca s

2050 EU27 9% for all passenger carsMeasure is applicable on all new passenger cars.

EU15 50.4 Mt CO2

EU12 10.1 Mt CO2

ApplicabilityAbsolute CO2

2020

Relative CO2

reduction

2

EU27 60.5 Mt CO2

EU15 66.2 Mt CO2

EU12 16.4 Mt CO2

EU27 82.6 Mt CO2

reduction potential 2050

82.6 Mt CO2

HighIn process

1,059 €/Ton CO2 savedCost

FeasibilityMaturity



GHG reduc t ion po ten t ia l s cars ( long l i s t )

Min Max1 Reduced mechanical friction components 0.4% 5.0%

Measures / Technologies CO2 Reduction Nr.Min Max

24 Latent-heat storage 8.1% 8.1%

Measures / Technologies CO2 ReductionNr.

2 Low viscosity lubricants 0.5% 4.0%3 Low rolling resistance tires 2.0% 2.0%4 Improved aerodynamics 1.5% 1.8%5 Tire-pressure monitoring system 1.0% 1.0%6 Substitution of fossil fuel by battery electric vehicles 7 8% 7 8%

25 Intercooling 2.5% 2.5%26 Dual cooling circuits 0.5% 2.0%27 Exhaust heat recuperation 1.5% 1.5%28 Cooling fluid shutdown system 1.0% 1.0%29 Hybridtype: full 18 0% 22 0%6 Substitution of fossil fuel by battery electric vehicles 7.8% 7.8%

7 Control mechanism for servo-steering 3.1% 5.0%8 Electric power steering (EPS) 2.0% 3.0%9 LED headlights 2.5%10 Pneumatic brake booster 1.6% 2.5%

I lli f l 0 3%

29 Hybridtype: full 18.0% 22.0%30 Hybridtype: mild 10.0% 11.0%31 Brake energy recuperation 3.0% 3.0%32 Hybridtype: plug-in

33 Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition 11.0% 25.0%GDI i h ifi d h ( i hi i ) 8 0%11 Intelligent fuel pumps 0.3% 0.3%

12 Solar panels on roofs 17.0% 29.0%13 High efficiency alternators 0.5% 2.0%14 Intelligent battery sensor 1.5% 1.5%15 CNG 16.7% 16.7%

34 GDI with stratified charge (stoichiometric) 8.0% 14.0%35 GDI with stratified charge (lean burn) 4.3% 6.4%36 GDI with homogenous charge (stoichiometric) 0.7% 5.0%37 Piezo injectors 3.0% 3.0%38 Further penetration of gasoline direct injection

16 LPG 9.0%17 Electrohydraulic valve gear 10.0%18 Variable compression ratio 5.0% 10.0%19 Cylinder deactivation 2.1% 8.0%20 Variable valve actuation 3 0% 7 0%

39 Utilisation of lightweight design and materials 0.9% 20.0%40 Weight reduction by minimising convenience features 4.9% 4.9%41 Smaller capacity fuel tanks 2.0% 3.0%42 Continuouse variable transmission 2.1% 9.0%43 6 speed manual/automatic gearbox 2 5% 5 0%


20 Variable valve actuation 3.0% 7.0%21 Start-stop system 3.0% 4.0%22 Variable valve timing 1.0% 3.0%23 Fuel quality sensor 1.2% 1.2%

43 6-speed manual/automatic gearbox 2.5% 5.0%44 Dual clutch transmission 4.0% 5.0%45 Piloted gearbox 4.0% 4.0%46 Optimisation of gear boxes 1.0% 2.0%


GHG reduc t ion po ten t ia l s cars (shor t l i s t ) : 2020

Electrical System ‐ Energy SupplyInjection Technology

Hybrid VehiclesEngine Control System

Lightweight ConstructionHeat/Cooling Management

El i l S E D dBattery Electric Vehicles

CNG/LPGAerodynamics/Resistance

Hybrid Vehicles

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Hydrogen Fuel Cell VehiclesDrive and Transmission

Electrical System ‐ Energy Demand

Source: GHG-TransPoRD D2, Remark: usage of biofuels was subject to separate analyses

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

[Mt CO2]2020


GHG reduc t ion po ten t ia l s cars (shor t l i s t ) : 2050

Injection TechnologyBattery Electric Vehicles //

Heat/Cooling ManagementLightweight Construction

Hybrid VehiclesElectrical System ‐ Energy Supply

H d F l C ll V hi lCNG/LPG

Aerodynamics/ResistanceEngine Control System

Heat/Cooling Management

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300

Drive and TransmissionElectrical System ‐ Energy Demand

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

700

//


0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300

[Mt CO2]2050 700


G H G r e d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l s i n r a i l s e c t o rG H G r e d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l s i n r a i l s e c t o r


Overv iew o f ra i l t ranspor t se lec ted measures

14

140

35 Supercapacitors

Hybrid shunting)

Scope (%)

1430

25 Regenerative braking

otenti

al (%

)

20

15

75

Energy efficiency41

Aerodynamic efficiency

educ

tion p

o

11 115

10Innovative bogie 100

Light weight materialFriction control

41Re

FeasibilityLow Medium High



21

y

Rank ing o f ra i l t ranspor t se lec ted measures

4,1924 500

Regenerative brakingEnergy efficient driving

[Kton]

2 995

Aerodynamic efficiencyg g

Supercapacitive energy storageHybrid shunting locomotives

[Kton]

2,9953 000 Light weight materials

Friction control measureInnovative bogieon

1,5601,406 1,333

2 000

O 2re

ducti

o

929

5861 000

CO

850 2050



22

CO2 reduc t ion p rov ided by ra i l t ranspor t measures

The implementation of the selected measures to the rail sector allows reducing CO2 p gemissions of 10% by 2020 and 42% by 2050 within EU27, assuming that all measures could be contemporarily implemented. On total transport emissions, rail measures impact is 0.1% by 2020 and 0.6% by 2050y y

CO2 rail emissions

31 408 45525 460 236

CO2 saving

[ton]

13 085 959

-2 442 303


-13 085 959

20502020


23

G H G r e d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l s i n m a r i t i m e s e c t o rG H G r e d u c t i o n p o t e n t i a l s i n m a r i t i m e s e c t o r


Overv iew of mar i t ime t ranspor t se lected measures

Measure name Earliest introduction date FeasibilityPolicy measure‐ Imo Indices In process HighTechnical measuresA) Overall vessel designA) Overall vessel design‐ Lightweight materials Already implemented High‐ Ship resistance Already implemented HighB) Engine andpropulsion systems‐ Contra‐rotating propeller Already implemented Medium‐ Dual‐fuel engine Already implemented Medium‐ Flettner rotor In process LowSky sails system In process Low‐ Sky sails system In process Low

C) On‐board energy using systems‐ Automation Already implemented High‐Waste heat recovery system Already implemented HighD) Port and infrastructure‐ Shoreside power at ports Already implemented High



Rank ing o f mar i t ime t ranspor t se lec ted

Sh id

measures

Automation

Waste heat recovery system

Shoreside power at ports

Sky sail systems

Flettner rotor

Ship resistance

CRP

Dual fuel engine

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%

Lightweight materials

Ship resistance

2050

20202020

The impact of the selected measures ranges from <1% to 5% in relation with the maritime energy framework in 2020 and 2050.Source: GHG-TransPoRD D2



CO2 reduct ion prov ided by mar i t ime

CO2 i i i i

t ranspor t measures

CO2 maritime emissionCO2 savings

2 555

1 926 180 484

144 367

‐25 001‐7 427 Kton

CO2 savings from maritime measures about: 5% in 2020 and 14% in 2050.2020 2050

25 001




Summary

/ C Road / Cars Technically, CO2 emission reduction of -40% up to -45% until 2020 feasible In the long term (2050) even -60% up to -68% realistic (excluding EVs) Injection technology, electrical system (energy supply) and heat/cooling

management bear highest reduction potentials until 2020 (~10% each) Battery electric vehicles could contribute CO2 reductions of -77% until 2050 (with y (

power supply mix of reference scenario) Road / trucks bears smaller but also significant reduction potentials Rail sector can provide GHG reductions of -10% until 2020, and -42% until 2050p , Maritime sector has potentials of -5% until 2020, and -14% until 2050

Absolute reduction potential of transport sector in order of 30% in 2020 up to 60% in Absolute reduction potential of transport sector in order of -30% in 2020, up to -60% in 2050

Potentials would even be higher if electric power generation is shifted to zero GHG emissions by 2050


emissions by 2050

Contac t

Dr. Wolfgang Schade, Area CoordinatorFraunhofer Institute Systems and Innovation

Research (ISI)

Angelo Martino, DirectorTrasporti e Territorio Srl , TRTVia Rutilia, 10/8, 20141 Milano, Italy

Breslauerstr. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, GermanyPhone: +49 721 6809 353Fax: +49 721 6809 135

Via Rutilia, 10/8, 20141 Milano, ItalyPhone: +39 (02) 57 41 03 80Fax: +39 (02) 55 21 28 45E il ti @t tt ti t it i itFax: 49 721 6809 135

Email: [email protected]: [email protected]


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