Sreeja NairThe Energy and Resources

Institute

Evolution of approaches towards evaluation of adaptive responses

The Evaluation Conclave, 25 October 2010. Evaluating Adaptive Responses to Climate Change workshop

Complex Adaptive Systems Evolution of evaluation of adaptive

responses in Social-Ecological Systems. Adaptive policymaking under

uncertaintySummary

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Overview

Social-Ecological Systems (SES), are complex adaptive systems experiencing multiple cross-scale interactions ( Cash et al. 1996) (‘complex’) and with time, adjusting to conditions of stress such as climate change (‘adaptive’) (Hughes et al 1997)

SES do not rapidly change their form owing to several self-reinforcing mechanisms that try to maintain the original structure and function (Walker et al 2002).

Under stress, SES assimilate the new conditions while trying to maintain their earlier critical processes, attempt to self-organize while learning and adjusting to the new conditions (Carpenter and Brock 2008).

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Being ‘complex’ and ‘adaptive’

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Responding to Structured and unstructured problems

Hisschemoller and Hoppe,1989

Unstructured problems are characterized by uncertainty and difference in perception about the problem, its cause and solution; boundaries of the problem are nebulous.

YesNo

Yes

No

Certainty about knowledge

Agreement on perception about the problem

Unstructured problem

Moderately structured problem

Moderately structured problem

Structured problem

Understanding Uncertainty

• Adaptive responses may be elicited across a continuum of uncertainty: moving from

Determinism, TO Complete ignorance

Walker et al 2010

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Evolution of empirical and theoretical approaches

Single stress e.g. climate change

Climate variability and change

Multiple stresses

Scen

ari

o-

based

m

od

ellin

g

Ind

icato

r-

based

ap

pro

ach

es

Com

mu

nit y

in

tera

cti

on

Source: TERI

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Adaptive capacity

Biophysical vulnerability• Soil degradation and cover• Groundwater availability

Social vulnerability• Agricultural workers and labourers• Literacy• Gender discrimination• Child mortality and fertility

Technological vulnerability• Irrigation• Infrastructure

Globalizationvulnerability

Climate changevulnerability

Climate sensitivity (monsoon dependence and dryness)

Trade sensitivity (port distance and import-sensitive crops)

Example: Macro and micro assessments Impacts of climate change and globalization on Indian agriculture

Source: TERI, 2003

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Regions with highest climate sensitivity and exposure are

not necessarily the most

vulnerable

Assessment of vulnerability of Indian agriculture to ‘double exposure’ (climate change and globalization)- a case study (Source: TERI, 2003)

Vulnerability profiles

Drought prone and flood prone basins selected to understand differential vulnerability and adaptation options

Village selection: Irrigation & Infrastructure indexHousehold-level surveys; Unit of analyses- land

holding sizeIncome Impact Index: Identification of significant

variables that enable households to ‘maintain’ income levels between a normal and stress year

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Example : Basin-level assessment

Source: TERI – World Bank study, 2008

Weights and scores for biophysical, social and technological vulnerability

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A State Vulnerability Index

Bid

Pune

Nashik

Dhule

Solapur

Akola

Satara

Gadchirol

Yavatmal

Jalgaon

Ahmadnagar

Thane

Amravati

Jalna

Latur

Sangli

Nagpur

Nanded

Parbhani

Buldana

Chandrapu

Bhandara

Aurangabad

Ratnagiri

Kolhapur

Raigarh

Wardha

Osmanabad

Sindhudur

Vulnerable Zones 2001

Maharastra

Gross cropped area in Ha. (1991)137400 - 271327

271328 - 578000

578001 - 856200

856201 - 1068700

1068701 - 1398300

Very Low

Low

Moderate

High

Very High

Godavari river basin

Extremely High

No data

BID

PUNE

NASHIK

SOLAPUR

THANE

SATARA

YAVATMAL

JALGAON

NANDED

JALNAAHMADNAGAR

AMRAVATI

NAGPUR

GADCHIROLI

SANGLI

DHULE

BULDANA

LATUR

CHANDRAPUR

AKOLA

RATNAGIRI

AURANGABAD

RAIGARH

KOLHAPUR

WARDHA

PARBHANI

WASHIM

OSMANABAD

HINGOLI

GONDIYA

NANDURBAR

BHANDARA

SINDHUDURG

MUMBAI (SUBURB)MUMBAI

Vulnerable Zones 2001

Maharastra

Gross cropped area in Ha. (2001)181500 - 328200

328201 - 486100

486101 - 591900

591901 - 837400

837401 - 1327500

Very Low

Low

Moderate

High

Very High

Godavari river basin

Extremely High

No data

Source: TERI – World Bank study, 2008

Evaluating responses within the Development: Adaptation ContinuumAdaptation needs often appear to being largely defined from a developmental perspective and mostly with reference to baseline vulnerabilities

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Example: Climate risk screening

Climate risk assessment as a tool/approach for reducing climatic risks to developmental objectives and integrating adaptation options within developmental programmes at the national and sub-national levels

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The ORCHID process Sensitisation and awareness-

raising

Initial Portfolio Screening

Strategic Overview

Climate change and disasters

profile

Adaptation options integratedRisk screening of future

programming

Multi criteria analysis of

options

Cost benefit analysis

Climate change and disasters assessment

Adaptation / Risk reduction

options

1. Climate science

2. Vulnerability

3. Economic impacts

Selects high risk projects

Risk assessment and adaptation optionsCost benefit analysis

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Criteria for climate risk screening: comparison of scenariosNo programme scenario: without interventionsProgramme scenario: partial risk reduction due

to programme implementationProgramme plus scenario: risk reduction with

additional components added within the present programme portfolio

Climate-risk screening of projects

Source: Tanner et al, 2007

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State level programme: Urban Services for the Poor

Identified climate risks

Climate Risk management and adaptationCurrent practices Additional opportunitiesKUSP MPUSP

Urban flooding In- situ slum upgradation Strengthening O and M Comprehensive urban planning

considering climatic risks Health risks due to contamination of water supplies

O and M of existing water supplies and drainage systems

Enabling ULBs to develop and follow environmental standards for sanitation and drinking water

Development of a spatial and temporal database for water quality surveillance

Raising plinth level of toilets Better insulation of toilet pits to

reduce seepage into the soil and groundwater

Source: Tanner et al, 2007

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Example: Trans-disciplinary assessmentsHighNoon : adaptation to changing water resources availability in Northern India with Himalayan glacier retreat & changing monsoon pattern

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Example: HighNoon adaptation assessment framework

www.eu-highnoon.org

Policies can promote continuous learning and adapt in response to experience over time (Dewey 1927)

Holling 1978: Adaptive policies and responses in SESAdaptive policies are ‘designed to test clearly

formulated hypotheses about the behaviour of an ecosystem being changed by human use’ (Lee 1993)

Most policies involve Complex Adaptive Systems hence conventional approaches based on single-model projections and optimization will produce static policies catered towards only the best estimate (Bankes 2002).

Adaptive policies -‘not only optimal for a best estimate future but robust across a range of plausible futures’ (Walker and Marchau 2003).

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Evolution of adaptive policy concepts

Swanson and Bhadwal, Creating Adaptive Policies: IISD-IDRC-TERI 2009

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Adaptive PolicyAbility of policy to

adapt to anticipated conditions

(based on a good understanding of cause

and effect)

(based on a good understanding of system

dynamics and complexity)

Ability of policy toadapt to unanticipated

conditions

Adaptive policies are ‘designed to function more effectively under complex, dynamic and uncertain conditions’.

Swanson and Bhadwal, Creating Adaptive Policies: IISD-IDRC-TERI 200920

Integrated and Forward-looking

Analysis

By identifying key factors that affect policy performance and identifying scenarios for how these factors might evolve in the future, policies can be made robust to a range of anticipated conditions, and indicators developed to help trigger important policy adjustments when needed.

The Policy Wind Tunnel

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Ranking Importance and Uncertainty

Import

ance

Uncertaintylow

high

high

CriticalUncertainties

‘inevitables’

Key factors

Multi-stakeholder Deliberation

Expands ability of policy to incorporate a range of anticipated conditions.

By providing access to different perspectives, different sources of knowledge, and different ways of knowing in order to consider new information and new views of the problem.

Rapid adjustment and response to unanticipated conditions.

By building the social cohesion, shared vision and capacity for collective action

Decentralization of Decision-making

Decentralizing the authority and responsibility for decision-making to the lowest effective and accountable unit of governance, whether existing or newly created, can increase the capacity of a policy to perform successfully when confronted with unforeseen events.

Built-in Policy Adjustment

Some of the inherent variability in socio-economic and ecological conditions can be anticipated, and monitoring of key indicators can help trigger important policy adjustments to keep the policy functioning well.

Formal Review and Continuous Learning

Regular review, even when the policy is performing well, and the use of well-designed pilots throughout the life of the policy to test assumptions related to performance, can help address emerging issues and trigger important policy adjustments.

1. Pre-defined time interval, e.g., once in a year

2. Monitoring of system performance indicators relating to intended (and unintended) policy outcomes

3. Stakeholder feedback 

4. Availability of critical new information

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Triggers for a Review

Promoting Variation

Given the complexity of most policy settings, implementing a variety of policies to address the same issue increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes. Diversity of responses also forms a common risk-management approach, facilitating the ability to perform efficiently in the face of unanticipated conditions.

• As an architect: designing and implementing a variety of policy options

• As a facilitator: creating an enabling environment for variation

• As a learner: studying from the past and current and adapting in the process

Promoting variation: Multiple roles of a policymaker

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Enabling Self-organization and Social

Networking

The capacity of individuals and groups to self-organize around problems and stresses affects the ability of communities to adapt to changing conditions. Ensuring that policies do not undermine existing social capital; creating forums that enable social networking; facilitating the sharing of good practices; and removing barriers to self-organization, strengthen the ability of stakeholders to respond to unanticipated events in a variety of innovative ways.

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Assessments have evolved from considering single stresses to existence of multiple stresses in the real world

Need to bring in adaptive thinking into empirical and theoretical approaches for evaluation in an increasingly complex, uncertain and dynamic world.

Need to capture heterogeneity of responding systems, innovation and feedback into assessment approaches.

Need to evaluate adaptive responses with respect to the ‘changing baseline’

Adaptive decision-making approaches can enable evaluation of adaptive responses under uncertainty.

Summary

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