gh d spark answers

8/10/2019 Gh d Spark Answers

1/43

SDI 2006 1

GHD AT: Spark

AT: Spark/Wipeout

Spark

Spark 2AC General 2

Spark 2AC Extinction 3

Spark 2AC Escalation 4

Spark 2AC Firebreak 5 Spark 2AC o !in"set S#i$t 6

Spark 2AC I%%oral &

Spark 2AC Space ' Spark 2AC (io)eapons *

Spark 2AC En+iron%ent ,0

Spark 2AC -.one ,,

Spark 2AC !onoc/lt/re ,2 Spark 2AC Disease ,3

Ext Extinction ,4

Ext Extinction A1 So/t#ern He%isp#ere ,5

Ext Extinction A1 Hiros#i%aaasaki ,6 Ext Extinction A1 S#elters ,&

Ext Escalation ,' Ext o !in"set S#i$t ,*20

Ext Space 2, Ext Disease 22

Ext -.one 23

Ext En+iron%ent 2425

Wipeout

ipeo/t 2AC General 262'

ipeo/t 2AC -+erpop 2*

ipeo/t 2AC Anti%atter(lack Holes 30 ipeo/t 2AC Ai$e 3,

ipeo/t 2AC anotec# 32

ipeo/t 2AC Aliens 33

ipeo/t 2AC Stranelets 34 ipeo/t 2AC i%e ra+el 35

ipeo/t 2AC 7/ant/% 8ac//%9ero:oint Ener; 36

ipeo/t 2AC !a;a 3&

Ext In$inite


2/43

SDI 2006 2

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC General

( ) Aff isnt key

a) Other limited nuclear ars are ine!ita"le

# $nsert %a!orite Scenario &

") Well still ha!e a uni'ue ad!antae Our ars are orse and ell ha!e non*nuclear

ar "ased add*ons

( ) +ou should default aff if e in any risk nuclear ar causes e,tinction kills a lot of

people or fails to spark a mindset shift you shouldnt "e illin to intentionally let "illions

die for a risk of stoppin their scenarios-

( ) Their authors are cra.y this is self*e!ident "ut you should "e illin to call out their

authors as crackpots ith no 'ualifications or arrants- /ust "ecause 0,it undi said it

doesnt make it true


3/43

SDI 2006

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC Extinction

( ) 3uclear ar causes e,tinction

Geore ! Woodell= :#D Fro% D/ke= Director o$ t#e Ecos;ste%s center at t#e !arine (ioloical aborator; at

oo"s Hole !ass> = /clear inter= Deterrence= an" t#e :re+ention o$ /clear ar= E"ite" b; Se"erber= ,*45p>

20 #e pri%ar; concern= I s/ppose= is t#e "irect e$$ects on people> !an; o$ t#e sa%e /ncertainties t#at appl; to

t#e in"/ction o$ cli%atic c#anes appl; as )ell to in$erences abo/t #/%an %ortalit;> #e si.e an" c#aracters

o$ t#e )ar are i%portant1 Are cities t#e tarets? #e anal;ses $ro% pre+io/s st/"ies rane )i"el; /p to t#e

recent H- anal;sis t#at s/ests a total %ortalit; o$ ,>, billion $or a ,0=000 ! )ar> o esti%ates in t#isst/"; "ealt )it# t#e e$$ects o$ a cli%atic crisis> S;ste%atic e$$orts at esti%atin t#e a""itional %ortalit; "/e to

"ark an" prolone" col" in t#e )eeks $ollo)in s/c# a )ar are be;on" t#e li%its o$ t#is "isc/ssion an"= )#en

"e+elope"= an; esti%ates )ill pro+e as ten/o/s as +irt/all; all ot#er ass/%ptions concernin t#e e$$ects o$ a

#;pot#etical )ar> Sur!i!ors of the immediate effects of the eapons ill emere into a radioacti!e

en!ironment that is likel; to be perpetually dark and fro.en)it# ,020C or %ore o$ $rost> -n $irst

anal;sis it ould seem difficult to e,aerate the difficulties of accumulatin the resources re'uired for

sur!i!al under those conditions> All supplies of $res# ater ould "e fro.en- 6lants and animals= le$t

/nprotecte"= ould "e fro.en and dead- Ariculture ould "e paraly.ed transportation= nor%alco%%/nications o$ all t;pes= so/rces o$ $/el= po)er s/pplies= an" t#e nor%al %ac#iner; o$ o+e%%ent=

incl/"in nor%al con+entions establis#e" in la) or in %anners )ill #a+e been "estro;e" or s/spen"e"1 /n"ert#ose circ/%stances %ere s/r+i+al )ill be a %a@or c#allene an" it is ell ithin t#e real% o$ pro"a"ilitythat $e) or none ould sur!i!e in areas as lare as continents= possibl; in t#e nort#ern #e%isp#ere itsel$>

( ) We dont need to in escalation ** fi!e nuclear eapons destroy the planet

The 7uardian= /l; ,4= 188(/t )e /n"erstan"= or o/#t to /n"erstan"= so%e t#ins better no) t#at t#e Eastest con$rontation is no

%ore= an" o/r kno)le"e o$ ecolo; an" t#e $railit; o$ planetar; s;ste%s #as a"+ance" -ne is t#at t#e

n/clear )ar $i#tin scenarios )ere not @/st opti%istic b/t totall; l/"icro/s e no) kno) or o/#t to kno)

an" t#at B)e incl/"es Arabs= Iranians> So/t# Asians= C#inese= an" oreans as )ell as esterners t#at one

nuclear eapon discharin miht "e enouh to push an entire reionsa; a +/lnerable reion like t#e

!i""le East= into an irre!ersi"le ecoloical economic and political decline To or three could thrust

the orld into a lon term crisis compounded "y the deradation of ot#er "anero/s $acilities incl/"innuclear poer stations- %i!e or 19 could reck the planet

( ) 0!en if some people sur!i!e ci!ili.ation ill collapse causin e,tinction

ickostrum2092:ro$ o$ :#ilosop#; at ale /ni+ersit; #ttp1)))>nickbostro%>co%existentialrisks>#t%l last /p"ate" April ,5= 2k2

#e S an" (/t )o/l" an allo/t n/clear )ar reall;

exter%inate #/%ankin"? ote t#at1 i For t#ere to be an existential risk it s/$$ices t#at )e cant be s/re t#at

it )o/l"nt> ii #e cli%atic e$$ects o$ a lare n/clear )ar are not )ell kno)n t#ere is t#e possibilit; o$ a

n/clear )inter> iii F/t/re ar%s races bet)een ot#er nations cannot be r/le" o/t an" t#ese co/l" lea" toe+en reater arsenals t#an t#ose present at t#e #ei#t o$ t#e Col" ar> #e )orl"s s/ppl; o$ pl/toni/% #as

been increasin stea"il; to abo/t t)o t#o/san" tons= so%e ten ti%es as %/c# as re%ains tie" /p in )ar#ea"s

J*K= p> 26> i+ 0!en if some humans sur!i!e the short*term effects of a nuclear ar it could lead to thecollapse of ci!ili.ation- A human race li!in under stone*ae conditions may or %a; not "e more

resilient to e,tinction than other animal species>


4/43

SDI 2006 ;

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC Escalation

( ) 3uclear ar ill escalate ** hih alert uarantees

D< Alan 6hillips-ct> 2999> #ttp1)))>peace>caIn/clear)interre+isite"#t%With thousands of rocketla/nc#e" eapons at launch*on*arnin= an; "a; there could "e an all*outnuclear arb; acci"ent> #e $act t#at t#ere are onl; #al$ as %an; n/clear bo%bs as t#ere )ere in t#e '0s%akes no sini$icant "i$$erence>

( ) 3uclear ar ill escalate ** =ussian and

:a+el %eienhauer= c#ie$ "e$ense correspon"ent o$ Seo"n;a !osco) li%es ,,2684=ussia also has a $/ll; operational Bdead hand? nuclear command machine- @sin specialcommunication rockets la/nc#e" #i# into space= this B"ea" #an" can issue computer*produced attack

orders to As one top At a %ini%/%= military

forces of alliance countries ould "e 6laced on hih*alert stat/s an" a oo" "eal o$ sa"er rattlin could

"e e,pected> A$ter a ti%e= such sa"er rattlin could ha!e a self*fulfillin effect "rinin abo/t t#e +er;con"itions o$ e,tended nuclear conflict it )as "esine" to pre+ent> $f it is enerall; "elie!ed that the to*

country nuclear ar had "een initiatedbeca/se t#e attackin part; percei+e" +/lnerabilit; on t#e part o$

t#e +icti%s retaliator; $orces= )e co/l" e,pect that other de!elopin nuclear poers in the system ould

acceleratet#eir construction of hair*trier launch mechanisms and adoption of launch*on*arnin

%eas/res> It $ollo)s t#at )e co/l" t#en expect an increase" probabilit; o$ a""itional strateic exc#anes as aconseO/ence o$ t#e acci"ental or /na/t#ori.e" /se o$ n/clear )eapons>


5/43

SDI 2006 B

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC Firebreak

( ) 0!en if they in nuclear ar doesnt cause e,tinction one use destroys the fire"reak

causin more nuclear ars

-r t#eshock miht prompt panic and a rush to stock up on W #e apocal;ptic i%ae )as $e" b; t#e

Ger%an bo%bin o$ G/ernica= a co%parati+el; s%all cit; in Spain> #en orl" ar II ca%e in E/rope= bot#

ritish and 7ermans initially refrained from "om"in attacks on cities- Once city "om"in "ean and

athered steam hoe!er it pro!ed to "e far less decisi!e than many had e,pected> (ritis# an" Ger%an

pop/lations %anae" to a"@/st an" absorb it> O!er time= #o)e+er= t#e $erocit; o$ Allie" "om"ino$

Ger%an; an" apan did approach t#eapocalyptic le!elsoriinall; en+isione"> In s#ort= "ire ass/%ptions

abo/t t#e a)eso%eness o$ strateic "om"in"eterre" its initiation= b/t once initi ated did not pre!ent

radual escalation to the de!astatin le!el oriinally en!isioned> /clear )eapon in+entories o$ co/ntries

like In"ia an" :akistan are likel; to re%ain s%all in n/%ber an" ;iel" $or so%e ti%e> Accor"in to press

reports= b; so%e >S> esti%ates t#e ;iel"s o$ t#e ,**' tests )ere onl; a $e) kilotons> I$ t#e $irst )eapon

"etonate" in co%bat is a lo);iel" "e+ice in a lare cit; )it# /ne+en terrain an" lots o$ rein$orce" concrete= it%i#t onl; "estro; a s%all part o$ t#e cit; A bo%b t#at kille" ,0=000 to 20=000 people )o/l" be seen as a

st/nnin catastrop#e= b/t t#ere are no) %an; parts o$ t#e )orl" )#ere t#at n/%ber )o/l" be less t#an ,

percent o$ a cit;s pop/lation> #e disaster could seem surprisinly limited= since in t#e pop/lar

i%aination /n"er)ritten b; t#e res/lts in t#e s%all an" $li%s; cities o$ Hiros#i%a an" aasaki= n/clear)eapons %ean Lone bo%b= one cit; A)$/l "estr/ction t#at ;et see%s s/rprisinl; li%ite" co/l" pro%pt

re+isionist reactions a%on la; elites in so%e co/ntries abo/t t#e %eanin o$ n/clear or"nance>


6/43

SDI 2006 5

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC No Mindset Si!t

( ) 3o mindset shift psycholoical effects of nuclear ar are too de!astatin

Art#/r !> Cat.andSi%a Osdo"yHE S-CIA AD EC--!IC EFFECS -F CEA< A< April

2,=,*42#ttp1)))>cato>orp/bspaspa-0*>#t%l

The e,perience of nuclear ar is likely to ha!e de!astatin psycholoical effects= especiall; $orA%ericans= )#ose #o%es an" instit/tions #a+e essentiall; escape" t#e ra+aes o$ recent )ars> The !ery

short period re'uired to carry out hihly destructi!e nuclear attacks ould intensify the emotional

impact particularly t#ose reactions associate" )it# denial of the true e,tent of the damae or fosterinfliht from and resistance to reenterin damaed areas> i$ton= in #is st/"; o$ Hiros#i%as/r+i+ors= "escribe" t#e ps;c#oloical e$$ect as Ba s/""en an" absol/te s#i$t $ro% nor%al existence to an

o+er)#el%in enco/nter )it# "eat#>J20K #e reaction= as reporte" b; a )itness to t#e "isaster= Fat#er

Sie%es1 BAmon the passers"y there are many ho are uninDured> In a p/rposeless= insensate %anner=distrauht "y the manitude of the disaster most of them rush "y and none concei!es the thouht of

orani.in help on #is o)n initiati+e> They are concerned only ith the elfare of their on

families>J2,, In so%e cases e+en $a%ilies )ere aban"one"> #e res/lt o$ t#is experience )as= as Fre" IkIe

"escribe" it 25 ;ears ao= a "eep a+ersion to ret/rnin to t#e cities to reb/il" t#e econo%;> BAn" t#/s a !erydifferent situation ill e,ist from that en!isaed in %ost ci!il defense plans in t#e , *50s>J22, #eecono%ic i%plications o$ t#is t;pe o$ )it#"ra)al )o/l" be serio/s> A hih incidence of a"normal

"eha!ior= ranin $ro% t#e non$/nctional to t#e antisocial= could "e anticipated> Speci$ic ps;c#oloicale$$ects )o/l" incl/"e "isorientation= $ear= "o/bt= apat#;= an" antipat#; to)ar" a/t#onties> The effects on>iroshimaE3aasaki sur!i!ors pro!ide ample e!idence to support these concerns>
http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/paO09.htmlhttp://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/paO09.html


7/43

SDI 2006

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC "##oral

( ) 3uclear ar is immoral e!en if it doesnt cause e,tinction its the ultimate in

dehumani.ation strippin e!en death of all meanin

:eter eckman= Hobart an" illia% S%it# Collees= et al= #e /clear :re"ica%ent1 /clear eapons in t#e

)ent;First Cent/r;= 3r"

e"ition= 2999= p> 2*62*&In"i+i"/al "eat# is not t#e onl; "eat# t#at a$$ects t#e )a; people li+e> Since hu mans are social "eins)#o"e$ine t#e%sel+es nat/rall; as parts o$ $a%ilies= societies= kins#ip ro/ps= reliions= nations= an" #/%anit; as

a )#ole= ho they !ie themsel!es ill dependlarel; on hether they anticipate the continuine,istence oft#ese social entities- $n the prenuclear ae the indi!idualob+io/sl; dies "ut the social unit=t#e nation= t#e $a%il;= t#e species= as understood as outli!in death> (/t in the nuclear ae e must

anticipate nuclear death as a collecti!e e,perience)#at or%an Co/sins calle" Birrational "eat#P"eat#

o$ a ne) kin"= a non"iscri%inatin "eat# )it#o/t )arnin= "eat# en %asse> L#ile all "eat#s are in"i+i"/al=

in t#e %ass "eat#s o$ t#e t)entiet# cent/r;= be t#e; at A/sc#)it. or at Hiros#i%a an" aasaki= the

indi!idual is lost in a faceless mindless random destruction-riter or%an !ailer "escribe" t#e

trans$or%ation as $ollo)s1 For t#e $irst ti%e in ci+ili.e" #istor;= per#aps $or t#e $irst ti%e in all #istor;= )e

#a+e been $orce" to li+e )it# t#e s/ppresse" kno)le"e t#at the smallest facets of our per sonalityor t#e%ost %inor pro@ections o$ o/r i"eas >>> miht "e doomed to die as a ci pher in some !ast statistical

operationin )#ic# o/r teet# )o/l" be co/nte"= an" o/r #air )o/l" be sa+e"= b/t o/r "eat# itsel$ /nkno)n=

/n#onore" an" /nre)ar"e"= a death hich could not follo ith dinityas a possible conseO/ence to

serio/s actions )e #a+e c#osen= b/t rat#er a "eat# in a as c#a%ber or a ra"ioacti+e cit;Q an" so >>> in t#e%i"st o$ ci+ili.ation >>> o/r ps;c#e )as s/b@ecte" itsel$ to t#e intolerable anxiet; t#at "eat# bein ca/seless=

li$e )as ca/seless as )ell= an" ti%e "epri+e" o$ ca/se an" e$$ect #a" co%e to a stop> I$ t#e t;pe o$ "eat# )e

anticipate is i%portant beca/se it a$$ects #o) )e +ie) o/rsel+es in t#e )orl"= t#en t#e per+asi+e $ear o$

n/clear anni#ilation "oes not necessaril; tell /s an;t#in abo/t "eat# per se= b/t rat#er it re+eals so%et#inabo/t t#e perception #/%ans #a+e o$ t#eir place an" )ort# in t#e )orl"> 3uclear eaponsc#allene a basic

belie$ in t#e i%portance o$ t#e in"i+i"/al> #e; challenepossibl; t#e most central tenet of the /udeo*

Fhristian orld !ie: 0ach in di!idual is uni'ue and importantan" create" in t#e i%ae o$ Go"> I$ ;o/

sa+e one li$e it is like sa+in t#e entire )orl"= t#e al%/" teac#es> BGo" so lo+e" t#e )orl" t#at He a+e Hisonl; beotten son= o#n sa;s> o)= )e are #a/nte" )it# t#e i%ae o$ #/%an beins as ob@ects= as %atter= to

be b/rne"= ra"iate"= t/rne" into as#es or +apor>

( ) #t% = accesse"= 5,&04

Ass/%in )e are able to pre"ict )#o or )#at are opti%i.e" #/%ans= this entire resultant orld!iesmacks of euenics and 3a.i racial science- This ould in!ol!e !aluin people as means> !oreo+er=t#ere )o/l" al)a;s be a s/per#/%an %ore s/per t#an t#e c/rrent ones= #/%ans )o/l" ne+er be able to

escape t#eir treat%ent as %eans to an al)a;s $/rt#er an" "istant en"> #is %eansen"s "isp/te is at t#e core

o$ !onta/ an" !atsonRs treatise on t#e "e#/%ani.ation o$ #/%anit;> #e; )arn1 its destructi!e toll isalready reater than that of any ar plaue famine or natural calamity on record ** and its potential

daner to the 'uality of life and the fa"ric of ci!ili.ed society is "eyond calculation> For t#at reason t#is

sickness o$ t#e so/l %i#t )ell be calle" t#e Fi$t# Horse%an o$ t#e Apocal;pse>>>> ehind the enocide of

the holocaust lay a dehumani.ed thouhtQ beneat# t#e %entici"e o$ "e+iants an" "issi"ents>>> in t#e

c/ckooRs next o$ A%erica= lies a "e#/%ani.e" i%ae o$ %an>>> !onta/ T !atson= ,*'3= p> xixii> #ile it

%a; ne+er be possible to O/anti$; t#e i%pact "e#/%ani.in et#ics %a; #a+e #a" on #/%anit;= it is sa$e toconcl/"e t#e $o/n"ations o$ #/%anness o$$er reat opport/nities )#ic# )o/l" be $oreone> When e

calculate the actual losses and the !irtual "enefits e approach a nearly inestima"le !alue reater than

any tools hich e can currently use to measure it-


8/43

SDI 2006 4

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC Space

( ) 3uclear ar stops space coloni.ation

S;l+ia 0ndahl= pro$essor at e) orks e) Sc#ool $or Social s;l+iaen"a#l>co%spaces/r+i+al>#t%I #a+e calle" t#is stae in o/r e+ol/tion t#e BCritical Stae> :a/l e+inson Jt#e Director o$ Connecte"

E"/cationK /ses "i$$erent ter%inolo; $or t#e sa%e concept> He sa;s t#at )e #a+e onl; a narro) )in"o) to

et into space= a relati+el; s#ort ti%e "/rin )#ic# )e #a+e t#e capabilit;= b/t #a+e not ;et r/n o/t o$ t#e

reso/rces to "o it> I aree )it# #i% co%pletel; abo/t t#is> 0,pansion into space demands hih technoloy

and full utili.ation of our orlds%aterial resourcesalt#o/# not "estr/cti+e /tili.ation> It also"e%an"s

$inancialresourcest#at e ill not ha!e if e deplete the material resources of 0arth- And it demands

human resources hich e ill lose if e are reduced to lo"al ar or idespread star!ation> Finall;=

it "e%an"s spirit/al reso/rces= )#ic# )e are not likel; to retain /n"er t#e sort o$ "ictators#ip t#at )o/l" benecessar; to %aintain a Bs/stainable lobal ci+ili.ation> (eca/se t#e )in"o) is narro)= t#en= )e not onl;

#a+e to )orr; abo/t i%%e"iate perils> #e /lti%ate= /na+oi"able "aner $or o/r planet= t#e trans$or%ation o$

o/r s/n= is "istantPb/t i$ )e "ont expan" into space no)= )e can ne+er "o it>

( ) 0,tinction

a%es O"er= space )riter an" a $or%er space $li#t enineer base" in Ho/ston= ,*88= Space :o)er #eor;=#ttp1)))>@a%esober>co%bookssptne)CHA:Ep"$

e #a+e t#e reat i$t o$ ;et anot#er perio" )#en o/r nation is not t#reatene"Q an" o/r )orl" is $ree $ro%

opposin coalitions )it# reat lobal capabilities> e can /se t#is perio" to take o/r nation an" o/r $ello)

%en into t#e reatest a"+ent/re t#at o/r species #as e+er e%barke" /pon> #e nite" States can lea"= protect=

an" #elp t#e rest o$ J#/K%ankin" to %o+e into space> It is partic/larl; $ittin t#at a co/ntr; co%prise" o$people $ro% all o+er t#e lobe ass/%es t#at role> #is is a %ani$est "estin; )ort#; o$ "rea%ers an" poets=

)arriors an" conO/erors> In #is last book= :ale (l/e Dot= Carl Saan presents an e%otional ar/%ent t#at o/r

species %/st +ent/re into t#e +ast real% o$ space to establis# a space$arin ci+ili.ation> #ile ackno)le"in

t#e +er; #i# costs t#at are in+ol+e" in %anne" space$li#t= Saan states that our !ery sur!i!al as a

species depends on coloni.in outer space- Astronomers ha!e already identified do.ens of asteroids

that miht someday smash into 0arth- n"o/bte"l;= many more remain undetected> In Saans opinion=

the only ay to a!ert ine!ita"le catastrophe is$or %ankin" to establis# a permanent human presence inspace> He co%pares #/%ans to t#e planets t#at roa% t#e ni#t sk;= as #e sa;s t#at #/%ans )ill too )an"ert#ro/# space> e )ill )an"er space beca/se )e possess a co%p/lsion to explore= an" space pro+i"es a tr/l;

in$inite prospect o$ ne) "irections to explore> Saans +ision is part science an" part e%otion> He #ope" t#at

t#e exploration o$ space )o/l" /ni$; #/%ankin"> e propose t#at %ankin" $ollo) t#e nite" States an" o/r

allies into t#is ne) sea= set )it# @e)ele" stars> I$ )e lea"= )e can be bot# stron an" carin> I$ )e step back=it %a; be to t#e "etri%ent o$ %ore t#an o/r co/ntr;>


9/43

SDI 2006 8

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC $io%eapons

( ) 3uclear ar causes FW use and e,tinction

#e 6reperation2992= #ttp1t#epreparation>netC#ap6>#t%l!ankin" #as been $ace" )it# t#e t#reat o$ n/clear )ar $or so%e ti%e no)= an" "espite )#at so%e people

t#ink= t#e t#reat #asnt one a)a;> #e t#reat #as s#i$te" so%e)#at t#o/#= to)ar"s a t#reat o$ n/clearterroris% an" n/clear exc#anes bet)een lesser %ilitar; po)ers> /clear )ar in an" o$ itsel$ ne+er "i" pose a

t#reat o$ eli%inatin all o$ #/%anit;> A $/ll scale n/clear )ar in )#ic# e+er; n/clear )eapon on Eart# is /se"

co/l" )ipe o/t aro/n" 30V o$ t#e Eart#s #/%an pop/lation %ost $atalities in a n/clear )ar res/lt $ro% a$ter

e$$ects o$ t#e n/clear exc#ane s/c# as1 ra"iation poisonin= en+iron%ental c#anes= star+ation= >>> an" social/p#ea+al an" set #/%an tec#nolo; back 40 ;ears> #e larer proble% )it# n/clear )ar is nuclear eapons

ill al%ost ne!er "e used alone- 3uclear eapons ill "e used toether ith chemical "ioloical and

con!entional eapons and this com"ination of eaponry ould ha!e the potential of eradicatin all

human life= i$ t#e con$lict )ere )orl" )i"e>

( ) 0!en one use of "ioeapons can cause e,tinction

Stein"runner= Forein polic; ,2228#at "ecepti+el; si%ple obser+ation #as i%%ense i%plications> #e /se o$ a %an/$act/re" )eapon is a

sin/lar e+ent> !ost o$ t#e "a%ae occ/rs i%%e"iatel;> #e a$tere$$ects= )#ate+er t#e; %a; be> "eca;

rapi"l; o+er ti%e an" "istance in a reasonabl; pre"ictable %anner> E+en be$ore a n/clear )ar#ea" is

"etonate"= $or instance= it is possible to esti%ate t#e extent o$ t#e s/bseO/ent "a%ae an" t#e likel; le+el o$ra"ioacti+e $allo/t> S/c# pre"ictabilit; is an essential co%ponent $or tactical %ilitar; plannin> The use of a

pathoen= b; contrast= is an e,tended process hose scope and timin cannot "eprecisel; controlled> For

%ost potential bioloical aents= t#e pre"o%inant "ra)back is t#at t#e; )o/l" not act s)i$tl; or "ecisi+el;

eno/# to be an e$$ecti+e )eapon> (/t $or a $e) pathoens ones most likely to ha!e a decisi!e effect and

therefore t#e ones %ost likel; to "e contemplated for "eliberatel; hostile use t#e risk r/ns in t#e ot#er

"irection> A let#al pathoen that could efficiently spread from one !ictim to another ould "e capa"le of

initiatin an intensifyin cascade of disease that miht /lti%atel; threaten the entire orld population>

#e ,*,' in$l/en.a epi"e%ic "e%onstrate" t#e potential $or a lobal contaion o$ t#is sort b/t not necessaril;its o/ter li%it>


10/43

SDI 2006 19

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC En&iron#ent

( ) 3uclear ar destroys ecosystems

o#n irks= Associate :ro$essor o$ C#e%istr; at t#e ni+ersit; o$ Colora"o= andAnne 0hrlich= Senior Animals that sur!i!ed the cold ould face star!ation as ell asassa/lts $ro%radioacti!ity= 8(= an" air poll/tants> In se+ere "ro/#t or $ree.in con"itions= lack of ater could "e ana""itional pro"lem- The a"ility of ecosystems to function an" pro+i"e li$es/pport ser+ices $or ci+ili.ation

ould "e hea!ily compromisedb; s/c# con"itions> 6opulationso$ %an; +/lnerable oranis%s ould

certainl; perish ith repercussions throuhout food e"s> Herbi+oro/s $oo" specialists )o/l" "isappear

in t#e )ake o$ t#eir $oo"plantsQ t#eir pre"ators )o/l" also soon $in" sli% pickins> (ees an" ot#er insectst#at are essential $or pollination o$ n/%ero/s plants incl/"in "o.ens o$ crops )o/l" be +/lnerable to col"

)eat#er= loss o$ li#t $or na+iation= an" t#e $ail/re o$ %an; plants to $lo)er an" pro"/ce nectar> ater= t#e;co/l" be "isoriente" b; increase" /ltra+iolet li#t= )#ic# is +isible to %an; insects> As nor%al $oo" s/pplies

$or %an; oranis%s in nat/ral ecos;ste%s +anis#e"= sur!i!in animals ouldsoon de!our hate!er

remainedt#at co/l" pro+i"e no/ris#%ent= t#ereb; destroyin seed "ankssee"lins= es= an" ;o/n

ani%alsPthe ellsprins of reco!ery> Insects an" ot#er #/nr; ani%als )o/l" also nat/rall; t/rn to t#e

%ost ab/n"ant so/rce o$ $oo" in taret reions1 crops= )#ic# probabl; co/l" no loner be protecte" b;

pestici"es> An" #/%an s/r+i+ors= )#ose store" $oo" an" crops )ere "a%ae" be;on" /se an" /n"e$en"ableaainst pests= )o/l" t/rn to nat/ral ecos;ste%s to #/nt an" at#er )#ate+er t#e; co/l" $in"> #e oranis%s

t#at )o/l" %ost easil; s/r+i+e s/c# "i$$ic/lt con"itions )o/l" be t#e Bopport/nistic species t#at people

enerall; rear" as pests or )ee"s> #e co%bine" e$$ects o$ "eci%ate" see"banks an" ani%al pop/lations=

soils "era"e" b; erosion= an" contin/e" abnor%al )eat#er )o/l" retar" reeneration o$ ecos;ste%s> #eplant an" ani%al communities thate+ent/all; appeared ould "e impo!erished inspecies di!ersity and

o$ten dominated "y undesira"le opportunistsP+er; "i$$erent $ro% t#e nat/ral co%%/nities o$ coe+ol+e"

oranis%s t#e; replace"> #e t;pical conseO/ences o$ "estro;in nat/ral ecos;ste%s an" i%pairin t#eirser+ices to #/%anit; )o/l" $ollo) a n/clear )ar= b/t on a ran"er scale> #ese )o/l" incl/"e accent/ate"

$loo"s an" "ro/#ts in part "epen"in on t#e "ist/rbance o$ rain$all patterns in"/ce" b; n/clear clo/"s=

increase" soil erosion= siltin o$ strea%s an" reser+oirs= o/tbreaks o$ pests an" "iseases= loss o$ pollination

ser+ices= acc/%/lation o$ )astes an" re"/ce" crop ;iel"s> The a"ility of nature topro+i"e s/stenance an"a"sor" a"use ould "e su"stantially reduced= @/st )#en #/%an s/r+i+ors )ere in "ire nee">

( ) 0,tinction e!idence is ender modified

!A-< DA8ID > The morecomple, the ecosystem the more successfully it can resist a stress> > > > JlKike a net= in )#ic# eac# knot isconnecte" to ot#ers b; se+eral stran"s= s/c# a $abric can resist collapse better t#an a si%ple= /nbranc#e"

circle o$ t#rea"s )#ic# i$ c/t an;)#ere breaks "o)n as a )#ole> n&* (; ca/sin )i"esprea" extinctions=

#/%ans #a+e arti$iciall; si%pli$ie" %an; ecos;ste%s> As bioloic si%plicit; increases= so "oes t#e risk o$ecos;ste% $ail/re> #e sprea"in Sa#ara Desert in A$rica= an" t#e "/stbo)l con"itions o$ t#e ,*30s in t#e

nite" States are relati+el; %il" exa%ples o$ )#at %i#t be expecte" i$ t#is tren" contin/es> #eoreticall;=

each ne animal or plant e,tinction ith all its dimly percei!ed and intertined affects could cause

total ecosystem collapse and human e,tinction- 0ach ne e,tinction increases the risk of disaster- Iike

a mechanic remo!in one "y one the ri!ets from an aircraftGs ins= n'0 JhuKmankind may "e edin

closer to the a"yss> J K W correctionX


11/43

SDI 2006 11

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC '(one

( ) 3uclear ar causes o.one depletion

D< Alan 6hillipsap#ilNc/io2>ico%>ca -ct> 2999> #ttp1)))>peace>caIn/clear)interre+isite"> #t%Anot#er ba" en+iron%ental t#in t#at )o/l" #appen is "estr/ction o$ t#e o.one la;er> The reduction in theo.one layer could "e B9L * 9L o!er the hole northern hemisphere +er; %/c# )orse t#an t#e c/rrentlosses t#at )e are properl; concerne" abo/t> 3itroen o,ides are maDor chemical aents for this- They are

formed "y com"ination of the o,yen and nitroen of the air in an; bi $ire an" around nuclear

e,plosions= as t#e; are on a s%aller scale aro/n" li#tnin $las#es> So after the smoke cleared and the sun"ean to shine aain= there ould "e a lare increase of @Hreac#in t#e eart#s s/r$ace> #is is ba" $or

people in se+eral )a;s= b/t "ont )orr; abo/t t#e skin cancers? not %an; o$ t#e s/r+i+ors )o/l" li+e lon

eno/# $or t#at to %atter> 8 is also "ad for %an; ot#er li!in thins= notabl; plankton hich are the

"ottom layer of the )#ole marine food chain- There ould likel; be enouh @H to cause "lindness in

%an; animals> H/%ans can :rotect t#eir e+es i$ t#e; are a)are o$ t#e "ancier> Ani%als "o not kno) to "ot#at= an" blin" ani%als "o not s/r+i+e> lind insects do not pollinate floers= so t#ere is another reason

hy #/%an crops and natural food supplies $or ani%als )o/l" $ail>

( ) 0,tinction

The$ndependent4,282#ese are t#e pro"/cts= "o/blin in o/tp/t e+er; "eca"e= t#at #a+e contrib/te" to t#e "estr/ction o$ the o.onelayer the thin unsta"le !eil in the stratosphere hich protects earths creatures and plants from= at

best= disease and= at )orst= e,tinction>


12/43

SDI 2006 12

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC Monoculture

( ) 3uclear ar causes crop mutations destroyin plant enetic di!ersity

o/is N :enn= Apocal;pse= ,*;p> ,55 E$$ects on !anae" errestrial Ecos;ste%s$n the ake of a )orl")i"e nuclear ar the technolo; "ase for modern ariculture ould disappearfoods ould "e contaminatedb; ra"ion/cli"es to unaccepta"le le!els and ioni.in radiation could cause

disease epidemics in sur!i!in crops and "o%esticate" animals> Direct enetic effects on crops ould

include chromosome "reakae and ene mutations resultin in altere" expressions o$ enes an" loss of

chromosome material from the cells n/cle/s /pon "i+ision o$ t#e cell> #e e$$ect o$ these chanes ould

be yield re"/cin sterility in see" crops> !oreo+er= accor"in to t#e AS report1 #ere is t#e possibilit; o$%/tations in s/bseO/ent enerations o$ t#e expose" plants ca/sin abnor%al plants or enetic or )#oleplant

let#als> #ese )o/l" not be i%portant in %ost aric/lt/ral sit/ations beca/se %an inter+enes> Ho)e+er=

mutations to disease suscepti"ility or inacti!ation of pathoen inhi"itors in t#ese plants %i#t increase

s/sceptibilit; to pat#oens an" a$$ect aric/lt/re> LIn"irect enetic e$$ects on aric/lt/ral plants co/l" arise$ro% %/tations in plant :at#oaens t#at )o/l" increase t#eir +ir/lence>

( ) 0,tinction

Car; %oleran" :at ooney= ix#ile %an; %a; pon"er t#e conseO/ences o$ lobal )ar%in= per#aps the "iest sinle en+iron%entalcatastrophe in #/%an #istor; is /n$ol"in in the arden> #ile all are ri#tl; concerne" abo/t t#e

possibilit; o$ n/clear )ar= an eO/all; "e+astatin ti%e bo%b is tickin a)a; in t#e $iel"s o$ $ar%ers all o+er

t#e )orl"> Ioss of enetic di!ersity in ariculturePsilent= rapi"= inexorablePis leadin /s to a ren"e.+o/s

)it# e,tinctionP to t#e "oorstep o$ #/ner on a scale )e re$/se to i%aine> To simplify the en!ironment

as )e #a+e "one )it# aric/lt/re is to destroy the comple, interrelationships that hold the natural orld

toether> It is li$e at t#e en" o$ t#e li%b> #at is t#e s/b@ect o$ t#is book> Arono%ists in

t#e :#ilippines )arne" o$ )#at beca%e kno)n as so/t#e% co% lea$ bli#t in ,*6,> #e "isease )as reporte"

in !exico not lon a$ter> In t#e s/%%er o$ ,*6'= t#e $irst $aint #int t#at t#e bli#t )as in t#e nite" Statesca%e $ro% see" ro)ers in t#e !i")est> #e "aner )as inore"> (; t#e sprin o$ ,*&, t#e "isease #a"

taken #ol" in t#e Flori"a con crop> (/t it )as not /ntil corn prices leapt t#irt; cents a b/s#el on t#e c#icao

(oar" o$ ra"e t#at t#e )orl" took noticeQ b; t#en it )as A//stPan" too late> (; t#e close o$ t#e ;ear=

A%ericans #a" lost $i$teen percent o$ t#eir %ost i%portant cropP%ore t#an a billion b/s#els> So%e so/t#ernstates lost #al$ t#eir #ar+est an" %an; o$ t#eir $ar%ers> #ile cons/%ers s/$$ere" in t#e rocer; stores=

pro"/cers )ere o/t a billion "ollars in lost ;iel"> An" t#e "isaster )as not solel; "o%estic> >S> see" exports

%a; #a+e sprea" t#e bli#t to A$rica> atin A%erica an" Asia>


13/43

SDI 2006 1

GHD AT: Spark

Spark 2AC )isease

( ) 3uclear ar causes mass disease out"reaks destroys medical infrastructure

-nline +ersion o$1 3issani= !>= :#>D>= Genetics= ni+ersit; o$ :ittsb/r#= ,*&5>(>A>= p#ilosop#;= ps;c#olo;=

Hebre) ni+ersit; o$ er/sale%= ,*&2> ,*82> i+es in t#e (alance1 t#e Col" ar an" A%erican :olitics= ,*45

,**,> #ttp1)))>cll>)a;ne>e"/lisp%nissani:AGE:(cH2 #t%l#ese re%arkable "i$$erences bet)een /s an" o/r ancestors= an" bet)een /s an" %an; o$ o/r less $ort/nate

conte%poraries in poor nations= are not $or t#e %ost part attrib/table to better c/res> #e; sprin $ro%

a"+ances in o/r /n"erstan"in o$ t#e ca/ses o$ "iseases an"= conseO/entl;= in o/r abilit; to co%bat t#e%

e$$ecti+el; b; pre+entin t#eir occ/rrence> :re+ention strateies incl/"e s/c# t#ins as sanitation= )i"esprea"i%%/ni.ation= n/tritional s/pple%ents= c#lorination o$ "rinkin )ater= an" "r;in or spra;in s)a%ps as part

o$ t#e $i#t aainst %alaria> In contrast= in past cent/ries people )ere %ore s/sceptible to "isease beca/se o$

poor n/trition= poor e"/cation= an" ina"eO/ate s#elter> o co%plex in$rastr/ct/re $or controllin epi"e%ics

existe"> -)in to poor sanitation= t;p#oi"= c#olera= pla/e= an" %an; ot#er epi"e%ics sprea" /nabate"> Int#e absence o$ antibiotics= "eat#s $ro% "iseases like pne/%onia an" s;p#ilis )ere co%%onplace> It $ollo)s

t#at modern ad!ances in health are ascri"a"le to ne knolede and to t#e de!elopment of a comple,

infrastructure of pre!ention and health*care deli!ery- After a nuclear ar the knolede may remain-ut %/c# o$ the infrastructure ill "e destroyed precisely at the point hen it is most sorel; needed "y

the irradiated star!ed= an" e%otionall; an" p#;sicall; stresse" sur!i!ors> At least $or a $e) ;ears=

s/r+i+ors o$ )arrin nations %i#t re+ert to t#e oo" ol" "a;s o$ t#eir $orebears= or to t#e oo" conte%porar;"a;s o$ t#eir less $ort/nate brot#ers an" sisters in t#e #ir" orl"> 0pidemics of all sorts miht "reak out>

!an; people )#o "epen" $or s/r+i+al on %e"ical #elp like "iabetics an" re/lar /sers o$ "ial;sis %ac#ines)ill be "ea" in a s#ort ti%e>

( ) 0,tinction

Stein"runer= ,222,*8JForein :olic;= lexisKIt is a consi"erable co%$ort an" /n"o/bte"l; a ke; to o/r s/r+i+al t#at= so $ar= t#e %ain lines o$ "e$ense

aainst t#is t#reat #a+e not "epen"e" on explicit policies or orani.e" e$$orts> In t#e lon co/rse o$ e+ol/tion=

t#e #/%an bo"; #as "e+elope" p#;sical barriers an" a bioc#e%ical i%%/ne s;ste% )#ose sop#istication an"e$$ecti+eness excee" an;t#in )e co/l" "esin or as ;et e+en $/ll; /n"erstan"> (/t e!olution is a s)or" t#at

cuts "oth ays: 3e diseases emere hile old diseases mutate and adapt> #ro/#o/t #istor;= there

ha!e "een epidemics durin hich human immunity has "roken don on an epic scale> An in$ectio/s

aent belie+e" to #a+e been t#e pla/e bacteri/% kille" an esti%ate" 20 %illion people o+er a to/r;earperio" in t#e $o/rteent# cent/r;= incl/"in nearl; oneO/arter o$ estern E/ropes pop/lation at t#e ti%e>

Since its reconi.e" appearance in ,*',= so%e 29 !ariations of t#e >$H +ir/s #a+e in$ecte" an esti%ate"

2*>4 %illion )orl")i"e= ith 1-B million people c/rrentl; dyin of A$


14/43

SDI 2006 1;

GHD AT: Spark

Ext Extinction

( ) >alf the orld population ould die from immediate effects

Carl Saanis Da+i" D/ncan :ro$essor o$ Astrono%; an" Space Sciences an" Director o$ t#e aborator; $or

:lanetar; St/"ies at Cornell ni+ersit; Forein A$$airs ,*'3,*4;

n' #/s it is possible t#at so%et#in approac#in half the human population on the planet ould

"e killedor serio/sl; in@/re" "y the direct effects of t#e nuclear ar- Social disruptionQ t#e /na+ailabilit;

o$ electriait;= $/el= transportation= $oo" "eli+eries= co%%/nication an" ot#er ci+il ser+icesQ t#e a"sence ofmedical careQ t#e decline in sanitation %eas/resQ rampant disease an" se+ere ps;c#iatric "isor"ers ould

"o/btless collecti+el; claim a sini$icant n/%ber o$ further !ictims> (/t a rane o$ a""itional e$$ects

so%e /nexpecte"= so%e ina"eO/atel; treate" in earlier st/"ies= so%e /nco+ere" onl; recentl; no) %ake

t#e pict/re %/c# %ore so%ber still>

( ) 0!en limited ar is catastrophic =adiation Water contamination Ariculture loss

reional conflarations forest fires and nuclear inter

eres= :ro$ o$ :olitical Science :/r"/e= Sec/rit; or Ar%ae""on ,*45= p ,,,20!en t#e %ost limited nuclear e,chane ould sinal /nprece"ente" catastrophe> The immediate effects

o$ t#e explosions t#er%al ra"iation= n/clear radiation and "last damae*ould cause )i"e s)at#s o$

death and de!astation-8icti%s )o/l" s/$$er $las# an" $la%e b/%s> :eople )o/l" be cr/s#e" b; collapsinb/il"ins or to% b; $l;in lass> -t#ers )o/l" $all +icti% to rain $irestor%s an" con$larations> Fallo/t

in@/ries )o/l" incl/"e )#olebo"; ra"iation in@/r;= pro"/ce" b; penetratin= #ar" a%%a ra"iationQ

s/per$icial ra"iation b/rns pro"/ce" b; so$t ra"iations1 an" in@/ries pro"/ce" b; "eposits o$ ra"ioacti+e

s/bstances )it#in t#e bo";> In t#e a$ter%at#= %e"ical $acilities t#at %i#t still exist )o/l" be stresse" be;on"en"/rance> Water supplies ould "eco%e unusa"le as a result of $allo/t contamination- >ousin and

shelter ould "e una!aila"le $or s/r+i+ors> Transportation and communication ould "reak don to

al%ost pre#istoric le+els> An" o+er)#el%in food shortaes ould "ecome the rule$or at least se+eral;ears> Since t#e co/ntries in+ol+e" )o/l" #a+e entere" into )ar as %o"ern in"/strial econo%ies= t#eirnet)orks o$ #i#l; interlockin an" inter"epen"ent exc#ane s;ste%s )o/l" no) be s#attere"> 8irt/all;

e+er;one )o/l" be "epri+e" o$ a %eans o$ li+eli#oo"> E%erenc; $ire an" police ser+ices )o/l" be

"eci%ate" altoet#er> S;ste%s "epen"ent /pon electrical po)er )o/l" cease to $/nction> Se+ere tra/%a

)o/l" occasion )i"esprea" "isorientation an" ps;c#oloical "isor"ers $or )#ic# t#ere )o/l" be not#erape/tic ser+ices> In s/%= nor%al societ; )o/l" "isappear> #e pestilence o$ /nrestraine" %/r"er an"

ban"itr; )o/l" a/%ent t#e pestilence o$ pla/e an" epi"e%ics> it# t#e passae o$ ti%e= %an; o$ t#e

s/r+i+ors co/l" expect an increase" inci"ence o$ "eenerati+e "iseases an" +ario/s kin"s o$ cancer> #e;

%i#t also expect pre%at/re "eat#= i%pair%ent o$ +ision an" a #i# probabilit; o$ sterilit;> A%on t#es/r+i+ors o$ Hiros#i%a= $or exa%ple= an increase" inci"ence o$ le/ke%ia an" cancer o$ t#e l/n= sto%ac#=

breast= o+ar;= an" /teMne cer+ix #as been )i"el; "oc/%ente"> S/c# a )ar co/l" also #a+e "e+astatin

cli%atic e$$ects> It is no) )i"el; /n"erstoo" t#at e+en the e,plosion ofa %ere ,00 %eatons less than 1percent of the orlds arsenals) ould "e enouh to enerate an epoch of cold and dark nearl; as se+ere

as in t#e 5=000%eaton case> As )e #a+e learne" $ro% Carl Saan= t#e t#res#ol" $or t#e n/clear )inter is+er; lo)>

0!en limited nuclear ar kills e!eryone

Alan =o"ock= (/lletin o$ Ato%ic Scientists= Septe%ber= 1848= p> 35#e i%plications o$ n/clear )inter are clear1 t#e use of nuclear eapons ould "e suicide for all thepeoples of the planet- A first strike ould kill the aressors= e+en i$ t#eir +icti%s co/l" not retaliate> An"t#e t#reat o$ n/clear retaliation= e+en $or a con+entional attack= is %eaninless i$ it illalso kill the

retaliators- 0!en a Mlimited nuclear ar? ould produce these effects-


15/43

SDI 2006 1B

GHD AT: Spark

Ext Extinction AT: Soutern *e#ispere

( ) Shockinly the effects of nuclear ar spread the south isnt safe



nlike %an; pre+io/s st/"ies= the effects do not seem to be restricted to northern %i"latitudes herethe nuclear e,chane ould %ainl; take place> #ere is no) s/bstantial e+i"ence t#at t#e heatin "y

sunliht of atmospheric dust and soot o!er northern %i"latit/"e tarets ouldpro$o/n"l; chane t#e

lo"al circulation> %ine particles ould "e transported across the e'uator in eeks "rinint#e coldand the dark to the Southern >emisphere> In a""ition= so%e st/"ies s/est t#at o!er 199 meatons

ould "e dedicated to e'uatorial and Southern >emisphere tarets= t#/s eneratin $ine particles

locall;> nil #ile it )o/l" be less col" an" less "ark at t#e ro/n" in t#e So/t#ern He%isp#ere t#an in t#e

ort#ern= massi!e climatic and en!ironmental disruptions may "e triered there as )ell>

( ) Fountries dont need to et directly hit theyd Dust star!e

@6$,034BA nuclear ar hittin 199 cities could create a Mnuclear inter e$$ect in hich "illions %i#t die of

mass star!ation= astrono%er Carl Saan sai" #/rs"a;> Saan tol" t#e Senate Ar%e" Ser+ices Co%%ittee

t#e n/clear )inter e$$ect o$ lo)ere" te%perat/res= less s/nli#t an" crop $ail/res %i#t "eter a $irst strikebeca/se it )o/l" be LLan elaborate )a; to co%%it national s/ici"e> Assistant De$ense Secretar; #e #earin )as t#e secon" o$

t)o calle" b; C#air%an (arr; Gol")ater= = to explore t#e iss/e be$ore #is in$l/ential panel> Saan

note" pre+io/s testi%on; to t#e panel sai" t#at Bmassi!e lo"al star!ation is a +er; likely conse'uence? of

a idespread ar that ould dri!e don lo"al temperatures "ecause of smoke thron into the

atmosphere> He sai" the loss of crops means that Mpeople in other countries --- are no fundamentally

threatened e!en if no nuclear eapons fall on them>


16/43

SDI 2006 15

GHD AT: Spark

Ext Extinction AT: *irosi#a/Na+asaki

( ) >iroshima and 3aasaki are irrele!ant e,amples the "om"s ere smaller and

detonated in the air

-nline +ersion o$1 3issani= !> :#>D>= Genetics= ni+ersit; o$ :ittsb/r#= , *&5>(>A>= p#ilosop#;= ps;c#olo;=

Hebre) ni+ersit; o$ er/sale%= ,*&2> ,*82> i+es in t#e (alance1 t#e Col" ar an" A%erican :olitics= ,*45,**,> #ttp1)))>cll>)a;ne>e"/ispl%nissan@:AGE:(CH2>#t%let ri% as t#ese experiences )ere= t#e; o$$er onl; a partial pict/re o$ a $/t/re n/clear )ar bet)een t)o

n/clear)eapon states> As an air "urst the >iroshima "om" enerated little local fallout> So= unlike theprospecti!e !ictims of an all*out nuclear ar the people of >iroshima ere spared the de!astatin

impact of linerin #i# le!els of radioacti!ity> #e explosion in aasakit#e onl; ot#er n/clear bo%bin

"/rin t#e )ar)as an air b/rst too= so no $allo/t $ro% ot#er s/r$ace b/rsts "ri$te" to Hiros#i%a> In contrast=

in an all*out n/clear ar many areas reardless of hether they are hit directly ill ha!e to contendith s/c# radioacti!e imports> An" "y todays standards the >iroshima "om"* ith only one*thirtieth

the destructi!e poer of humanitys a!erae arhead,4is compara"le to a mere "attlefield eapon>

e %/st also keep in mind the enormous num"er of nuclear "om"s hich miht "e used in an allo/t

)ar> (e;on" a certain point= t#eir o+erall i%pactespeciall; on s/c# co%plex entities as t#e biosp#ere= )orl"econo%;= an" #/%an societies%a; be O/alitati+el; "i$$erent $ro% a %ere s/% o$ t#e constit/ent parts see

belo)> Also= many "om"s are more destructi!e than one "om" > So a to)n t#e si.e o$ Hiros#i%a t#en= or

o$ !a"ison= isconsin to"a;= )o/l" be #it b; %ore t#an @/st one bo%b> Ho) %an; t#en? #e $ollo)in

stor; t#ro)s so%e li#t on t#is O/estion> In ,*60= :resi"ent Eisen#o)er sent a $e) people to t#e appropriate#ea"O/arters to inO/ire abo/t A%ericas )ar plans> -ne o$ #is %esseners picke" a Hiros#i%asi.e" So+iet

to)n> nlike Hiros#i%a= not#in abo/t t#is to)n %a"e it stan" o/t as an attracti+e %ilitar; taret> et t#e

plans allotte" it one bo%b )it# 320 ti%es= an" t#ree bo%bs eac# )it# '0 ti%es= t#e explosi+e ;iel" o$ t#e

Hiros#i%a bo%b>2c >iroshima sur!i!ors erealso co%parati+el; fortunate in the amount and 'uality of

help they recei!ed> r/e= apans r/lers "i" not r/s# to t#eir ai" b/t #elp "i" e+ent/all; co%e> After an all*

out ar it ill "e too danerous to alk a"out- There ill "e too fe people a"le to help and too many

needin help= so %ost +icti%s )ill recei+e no #elp at all>


17/43

SDI 2006 1

GHD AT: Spark

Ext Extinction AT: Selters

( ) Shelters dont ork e!eryone still dies

Harol" %reeman= :ro$> E%erit/s !I= IF o/ Gi+e a Da%n Abo/t i$e ,*4Bp> 2526$n a nuclear ar occupants of $a%il; shelters ill die in assorte" )a;s1 "y crushin if the shelter is!ulnera"le to "om" "lastNb; incineration if the shelter is reached "y the firestormat $i+e %iles $ro%

b/rst= s#elter te%perat/re co/l" reac# ,=500 "erees FQ b; asphy,iation if the firestorm a"sor"s all

a+ailable o,yenQ b; Star!ation or dehydration in the likel; a"sence of radiation free food or aterQ or

b; initial radiation if the air ithin the shelter cannot "e continuously filtered> !I p#;sicists esti%ate

t#at appearance outside a shelter for more than three minutes ill produce fatal third*deree "urns

$ro% intense ultra!iolet lihtQ t#is is the conseO/ence o$ o.onela;er depletion> For t#ose at a reater

"istance $ro% b/rst= protection in a $allo/t s#elter co/l" pro+i"e a s%all i%pro+e%ent in c#ances $or s/r+i+al>

(/t it )ill be s%all in"ee"> Ii!in mostly in darkness una"le to communicate ith others atte%ptin to

s/r+i+e= ith radiation radually penetratin the shelter occupants miht ain se!eral e,tra eeks or%ont#s o$ )#at co/l" ar/abl; be calle" li$e> ackin %eans= they ill not "e a"le to determine the le!el

of ra"ioacti+e contamination of stored food1 one c#oice )ill be bet)een #/ner an" ra"iation sickness>

oilet refuse and !omit from those radually "ein afflicted ith some deree of radiation sickness illadd extra stench to the stale air o$ t#e s#elter> An; early e,posure to radiation ill ha!e )eakene" ordestroyed the immune system: e!en minor infections ill take #ol" an" "rin death> An; in@/ries or

b/rns o$ t#ose )#o )ere late reac#in t#e s#elters )ill be $ar be;on" t#e rane o$ an; $irst ai" kit> it# $i+eor %ore people in t#e space o$ a bat#roo%= e%otion er/ption= alternatin )it# "e%orali.ation an" apat#;= is

+irt/all; /arantee"> At best= %an; occ/pants o$ $a%il; s#elters )ill $in" t#e%sel+es ali+e in )#at )ill t/rno/t= in s#ort ti%e= to be t#eir co$$ins> #e "ela; )ill be s#orter $or c#il"ren>

( ) Shelters dont ork ** 6entaon study pro!es nuclear inter causes e,tinction

@6$*44BFi!il defense plans fall $ar short of dealin ith a nuclear inter and its en!ironmental effects may "e

so de!astatin that human sur!i!al could not "e assured= a ne) :entaon st/"; sai" e"nes"a;> B#e

possibilit; o$ a nuclear inter makes t#e obstacles to sur!i!al in a postar en!ironment appear e!en

more formida"le than earlier foreseen= t#e 66pae report sai"> :repare" b; :alo%ar corp> o$ as#inton

$or t#e De$ense /clear Aenc; in /ne an" release" $ollo)in its p/blication in #e os Aneles i%es= t#e

report looks at t#e i%plications o$ a n/clear )inter on />s> strate;= ar%s control an" ci+il "e$ense %eas/res>

For p/rposes o$ anal;sis= t#e st/"; e%braces t#e n/clear )inter t#eor; p/t $or)ar" b; a ro/p o$ scientistsnearl; t)o ;ears ao t#at t#e explosions o$ %a@or n/clear )eapons )o/l" create eno/# "/st= s%oke= soot

an" "ebris to blot o/t t#e s/n= creatin %ont#s o$ "arkness an" col" te%perat/res o+er t#e ort#ern

He%isp#ere> #e /nstate" t#e%e o$ t#e st/";s concl/sions )as t#at little could "e done to a!oid the onsetof a nuclear inter or to protect populations aainst its effects in t#e e+ent o$ a %aior exc#ane o$n/clear )eapons= e+en i$ t#e; "i" not #it >S> territor;> In a )orstcase scenario en+isione" b; t#e n/clear

)inter t#eorists= t#e st/"; sai"= BThe lon*term "ioloical and en!ironmental effects ould "e so

de!astatin that e!en such exorbitantl; e,pensi!e measures as "uildin !ast underround sheltersmiht not ensure#/%an sur!i!al> B#e re/ire%ents $or s#elterin= $ee"in an" ot#er)ise carin $ors/r+i+ors o$ a n/clear con$lict $ace" )it# a n/clear )inter )o/l" be $ar %ore extensi+e t#an t#ose anticipate"

/n"er c/rrent ci+il "e$ense plans= )#ic# $oc/s on protectin t#e pop/lation $ro% t#e initial blast= $ire an"

$allo/t o$ a n/clear attack= t#e st/"; sai"> !oreo+er= t#e report sai"= t#e necessar; preparations $or copin

)it# B)orst case n/clear )inter con"itions %i#t in+ol+e t#e peaceti%e expen"it/re o$ an /nacceptabl; #i

le+el o$ reso/rces>


18/43

SDI 2006 14

GHD AT: Spark

Ext Escalation

( ) There ould "e political pressure for escalation

Art#/r ! Cat.= :#D in c#e%istr; $ro% 50-n a national scale= the most serious aspect of a co/nter$orce or li%ite" nuclear attack= e+en one restricte"

to IC(! silos= is itspotentiall; se!ere conse'uences for short* and midterm food production if t#e @-S-

food production and distri"ution system is sini$icantl; disrupted not necessaril; "estro;e"= the attack

creates t#e potential to /nleas# tremendous political pressure for retaliation>

( ) 0,tinction only takes half an hour 0arly Warnin Systems ensure escalation

#e American 6rospect= 22691#e bitter "isp/tes o+er national %issile "e$ense !D #a+e obsc/re" arelate" b/t "ra%aticall; %ore

/rent iss/e o$ national sec/rit;1 t#e 4='00 n/clear )ar#ea"s )eapons )it# a co%bine" "estr/cti+e po)er

nearl; ,00=000 ti%es reater t#an t#e ato%ic bo%b t#at le+ele" Hiros#i%a c/rrentl; on #airtrier alert>Hairtrier alert %eans t#is1 The missiles carryint#ose arheads are armed and fueled at all times>

)o t#o/san" or so o$ t#ese )ar#ea"s are on t#e intercontinental ballistic %issiles IC(!s tarete" b;

#ese

%issiles )o/l" la/nc# on receipt o$ t#ree co%p/ter"eli+ere" %essaes> a/nc# cre)s on "/t; e+er;

secon" o$ e+er; "a; are /n"er or"ers to sen" t#e %essaes on receipt o$ a sinle co%p/ter"eli+ere"

co%%an"> $n no %ore t#anto minutes= i$ all )ent accor"in to plan= =ussia or the@nite" States could

launch missiles at predetermined tarets1 as#inton or e) orkQ !osco) or St> :etersb/r> #e early*

arnin systemson )#ic# t#e la/nc# cre)s rel; ould detect the other sideGs missiles ithintens o$

seconds causint#e inten"e" or acci"ental ene%; to %o/nt retaliatory strikes> Within a half*hourthere could "e a nuclear ar that ould e,tinuish all of us= explains (r/ce (lair> It )o/l" be=

basicall;= a n/clear )ar b; c#ecklist= b; rote>


19/43

SDI 2006 18

GHD AT: Spark

Ext No Mindset Si!t

( ) 3o chance of mindset shift any nuclear attack ould create feelins of isolation and

indi!idualism

Art#/r !> Cat.an" Si%a Osdo"yHE S-CIA AD EC--!IC EFFECS -F CEA< A< April

2,= ,*42 #ttp1)))>cato>orp/bspaspa-0*>#t%lThe massi!e and simultaneous destruction of economic and human resources ould result in anina"ility to pro!idei%%e"iate an" s/$$icient #/%an an" %aterial aid to damaed areas- There ill "e no

time to adapt and to inno!ate as nations "i" in orl" ar II >S>S> as pre+io/sl; cite" is an exa%ple>

!ore i%portant the lack of outside aid ould create a sense of in"i+i"/al an" co%%/nal isolation- Aid

sym"oli.es a reconnection ith a larer= nor%al orld- This connection helps pro!ide the impetus for

re"uildin t#e "a%ae" societ;= creatin a sense o$ +italit; an" co%petence to "ispel t#e contin/in

perception o$ isolation> $t also has an important function for "indin toether society restatin acommon thread of hope an" s#are" aspirations t#at are t#e essence o$ national li$e> The post*attack

situation could "e like /apan near the end of World War $$- There could "e Ma drift toard

accomplishin personal and pri!ate aims rat#er t#an t#ose )#ic# are national>> farmersYroin little

more than is re'uired for their on su"sistence=J, &K or %ore likel;= t#e complete demorali.ation seenin an earlier trae";1 BS/r+i+ors o$ t#e (lack Deat# in ro)in #elplessness $ell into apat#;= lea+in ripe

)#eat /nc/t an" li+estock /nten"e"Yno one #a" an; inclination to concern t#e%sel+es abo/t t#e

$/t/re>$,', !ore pertinent= a panel o$ experts in a st/"; o$ social conseO/ence o$ n/clear )ar $or t#e -$$ice

o$ Ci+il De$ense concl/"e"1 BOne month after t#e attack less than half thepotential la"or force could "e

e,pected to ork )it#o/t i%%e"iatel; bene$icial co%pensation> and t#at= of these one in fi!e ould "e

a"le to function onl; at a le+el reatl; "era"e" $ro% #is nor%al abilities> ,*K

( ) 0!en a limited nuclear ar causes states to o authoritarian escalatin future conflicts

(rian artin:/blis#e" in o/rnal e$ :eace ,*= o> 4=,*42= pp> 2'&300>#ttp1)))>/o)>e"/>a/artsstsb%artinp/bs'2@pr>#t%l

i%ite" n/clear )ar in t#e perip#er;> A )ar breaks o/t in t#e !i""le East= an" resort is %a"e to n/clear

)eapons= killin a $e) #/n"re" t#o/san" people> #e nite" States an" t#e So+iet nion place t#eir n/clear$orces on t#e #i#est alert> As the tension continues to "uild up a state of emerency is declared in the

@S- 3ormal democratic procedures are suspended and dissidents are rounded up> Asimilar process

occurs in many countries allied %ilitaril; to the @S= an" also )it#in t#e So+iet bloc> A return to the pre*crisis state of affairs does not occur for years or "eca"es> As ell as precipitatin "itter political

repression the crisis contri"utes to an increased arms race especially amon nonnuclear and small

nuclear poers= as no e$$ecti+e sanctions are applie" to t#ose )#o /se" n/clear )eapons> Another si%ilar

li%ite" nuclear ar an" s/pe%o)er crisis "ecomes likely >>> or per#aps t#e scene s#i$ts to scenario b or c>b)Iimited nuclear ar "eteen the superpoers> A li%ite" exc#ane o$ n/clear )eapons bet)een t#e San" t#e So+iet nion occ/rs eit#er "/e to acci"ent or as part o$ a t#reatco/nter t#reat sit/ation> A si.a"le

num"er of military or ci!ilian tarets are destroyed= eit#er in t#e S or t#e So+iet nion or in allie"

states= an" per#aps 5 or ,0 %illion people are kille"> As in scenano a= states of emerency are declaredpolitical dissent repressed and pu"lic outrae channelled into massi!e militaryan" politicalmo"ilisation to prepare $or $/t/re con$rontations an" )ars> Scenario c "ecomes more likely>c 7lo"al

nuclear ar> A %assi+e n/clear exc#ane occ/rs= killin 200 %illion people in t#e S= So+iet nion an"

E/rope> 3ational o!ernments= t#o/# "eci%ate"= s/r+i+e an" apply "rutal policies to o"tain economicand military reco!ery "rookin no dissent> In t#e )ake o$ t#e "isaster= authoritarianci+ilian or %ilitar;

reimes take control in countries relati+el; unscathed "y the ar= such as Australia= apan an" Spain>The road is laid to an e!en more de!astatin World War $H>


20/43

SDI 2006 29

GHD AT: Spark

Ext No Mindset Si!t

( ) 0!en if they in theres a shift it ont last resource pro"lems and pree,istin

conflicts


2,=,*42#ttp1)))>cato>orp/bspaspa00*>#t%l Sinificant interpersonal= interroup and inter*reional conflicts ouldprobabl; arise> Et#nic= racial=reional> an" econo%ic conflicts present in the pre*attack society hile minimi.ed in the period

immediately after an attack ould "e heihtened after only a limited time "y the e,tent of the

depri!ation and the resultin tensions> e) antaonisms ould de!elop "eteen hosts and e!acuees or

refuees o!ert#e possession an" use of sur!i!in resources> These phenomena ere o"ser!edbot# in

ritain and in /apan durin World War $$> #e Alln/tt st/"; pre"icte" t#ese con$licts )o/l" be so serio/s

t#at t#e; B)o/l" necessitate t#e i%position o$ %artial la) or ot#er a/t#oritarian s;ste% in %an; localities=

an" t#e )i"esprea" /se o$ troops to %aintain or"er> r23,
http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa009.htmlhttp://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa009.htmlhttp://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa009.html


21/43

SDI 2006 21

GHD AT: Spark

Ext Space

( ) We cant et off the rock if theres a ar that depletes resources

S;l+ia 0ndahl= pro$essor at e) orks e) Sc#ool $or Social s;l+iaen"a#l>co%spaces/r+i+al>#t%I #a+e calle" t#is stae in o/r e+ol/tion t#e BCritical Stae> :a/l e+inson Jt#e Director o$ Connecte"

E"/cationK /ses "i$$erent ter%inolo; $or t#e sa%e concept> He sa;s t#at e ha!e only a narro indo to

et into space arelati+el; short time durin hich e ha!e the capa"ility "ut ha!e not yet run out ofthe resources to do it> I aree )it# #i% co%pletel; abo/t t#is> 0,pansion into space demands hih

technoloy and full utili.ation of our orlds material resourcesalt#o/# not "estr/cti+e /tili.ation> It

also"e%an"s $inancialresourcest#at e ill not ha!e if e deplete the material resources of 0arth- And

it demands human resources hich e ill lose if e are reduced to lo"al ar or idespread

star!ation> Finall;= it "e%an"s spirit/al reso/rces= )#ic# )e are not likel; to retain /n"er t#e sort o$"ictators#ip t#at )o/l" be necessar; to %aintain a Bs/stainable lobal ci+ili.ation>

(eca/se t#e )in"o) is narro)= t#en= )e not onl; #a+e to )orr; abo/t i%%e"iate perils> #e /lti%ate=

/na+oi"able "aner $or o/r planet= t#e trans$or%ation o$ o/r s/n= is "istantPb/t i$ )e "ont expan" into

space no)= )e can ne+er "o it>


22/43

SDI 2006 22

GHD AT: Spark

Ext )isease

( ) 3uclear ar causes disease eakens immune systems and kills natural predators

Carl Saanis Da+i" D/ncan :ro$essor o$ Astrono%; an" space Sciences an" Director o$ t#e aborator; $or

:lanetar; St/"ies at Cornell /ni+ersit; Forein A$$airs ,*'3,*4;

Eac# o$ t#ese $actors= taken separatel;= %a; carr; serio/s conseO/ences $or t#e lobal ecos;ste%1 t#eirinteractions %a; be %/c# %ore "ire still> Extre%el; )orriso%e is t#e possibilit; o$ poorl; /n"erstoo" or as

+et entirel; /nconte%plate" s;neris%s )#ere t#e net conseO/ences o$ t)o or %ore assa/lts on t#e

en+iron%ent are %/c# %ore t#an t#e s/% o$ t#e co%ponent parts> For exa%ple= %ore t#an ,00 ra"s an"

possibl; %ore t#an 200 ra"s o$ external an" ineste" ioni.in ra"iation is likel; to be "eli+ere" in a +er;lare n/clear )ar to all plants= ani%als an" /nprotecte" #/%ans in "ensel; pop/late" reions o$ nort#ern

%i"latit/"es> A$ter t#e soot an" "/st clear= t#ere can= $or s/c# )ars= be a 200 to 400 percent incre%ent in t#e

solar /ltra+iolet $l/x t#at reac#es t#e ro/n"= )it# an increase o$ %an; or"ers o$ %anit/"e in t#e %ore

"anero/s s#orter)a+elent# ra"iation> oet#er= t#ese radiation assaults are likely to suppress the

immune systems o$ #/%ans an" ot#er species= makin them more !ulnera"le to disease> At t#e sa%e ti%e=

the hih am"ient*radiation flu,es are likel; to produce throuh mutation ne !arieties of

microoranisms some of hich miht "ecome pathoenic> #e pre$erential radiation sensiti!ity of "irdsand other insect predators ould enhance the proliferation o$ #erbi+oro/s an" pathoen*carryin

insects> Carrie" b; +ectors )it# #i# ra"iation tolerance= it see%s possible t#at epi"e%ics an" lo"al

pandemics ould propaate ith no hope of effecti!e mitiation "y medical care e!en ith reducedpopulation si.es andreatl; restricted#/%an mo"ility> :lants= )eakene" b; lo) te%perat/res an" lo)

li#t le+els= an" ot#er ani%als )o/l" like)ise be +/lnerable to preexistin an" ne)l; arisen pat#oens>

( ) 0!en a limited attack o!erhelms medical infrastructure causin maDor disease

out"reaks


2,=,*42 #ttp1)))>cato>orp/bspaspa00*>#t%l#at )o/l" t#is le+el o$ "estr/ction %ean? I$ in t#e %ost #ea+il; conta%inate" an" "a%ae" reions= all t#e

"octors s/r+i+e" an" #ospitals )ere /sable= t#ere )o/l" be one "octor $or e+er; 50 or ,00 in@/re"= an"bet)een ,0 an" 30 patients per a+ailable #ospital be"> 0!en if the entire national health care system as

used the patient*doctor ratio ould "e "eteen 2B and B9 to 1 and patients per #ospital "ed "eteen 19

and 29 to 1> Fare for patients sufferin from other medical pro"lems such as heart attack and cancerould "e sini$icantl; deraded for an e,tended time "ecause of the competin and continuin

demands of those inDured "y fallout the loss of physicians and hospitals beca/se o$ conta%ination in

specific reions and potential reductions in the manufacture and distri"ution of medical supplies

abo/t 9L of all drus are manufactured in the reions most affected "y fallout> For a %ore speci$ic

exa%ple= to treat a sinle patient expose" to s/bstantial le+els o$ ra"iation 200 Treatin lare num"ers ould

rapidly drain e,istin supplies and professional enery- As anti"iotics supplies dindled and

immuni.ation pro!ed ineffecti!e in this radiation*eakened roup a hue reser!oir of potential

disease carriers ould de!elop-


23/43

SDI 2006 2

GHD AT: Spark

Ext '(one

( ) 3uclear ar destroys the o.one layer threatenin all life on earth



3uclear e,plosions of more than one*meaton ;iel" enerate a radiant fire"all that rises throuh thetroposphere into the stratosphere- The fire"alls from eapons ith yields "eteen 199 kilotons and one

meaton ill partially e,tend into the stratosphere- The hih temperatures in t#e $ireball c#e%icall;

inite so%e o$ the nitroen in the air producin o,ides of nitroen hich in turn chemically attack anddestroy the as o.one in the middle stratosphere> (/t o.one absorbs t#e bioloicall; "anero/s /ltra+ioletra"iation $ro% t#e S/n> #/s t#e partial depletion of the stratospheric o.one layer= or o.onosp#ere= "y

hih*yield nuclear e,plosions ill increase the flu, of solar ultra!iolet radiation at the surface of the

0arth a$ter t#e soot an" "/st #a+e settle" o/t> After a nuclear ar in hich thousands of #i#;iel"eapons are detonated the increase in "ioloically danerous ultra!iolet liht miht "e se!eral

hundred percent> In t#e %ore "anero/s s#orter )a+elent#s= larer increases )o/l" occ/r> /cleic aci"s

an" proteins= the fundamental molecules for life on 0arth are especially sensiti!e to ultra!iolet

radiation> #/s= an increase of the solar ultra!iolet flu, at the surface of the 0arth ispotentiall;

"anero/s for life>


24/43

SDI 2006 2;

GHD AT: Spark

Ext En&iron#ent

( ) 3uclear ar instantly kills B9 percent of the orlds species causes climate oscillations

and destroys the o.one layer

-nline +ersion o$1 3issani= !> :#>D>= Genetics= ni+ersit; o$ :ittsb/r#= , *&5>(>A>= p#ilosop#;= ps;c#olo;=

Hebre) ni+ersit; o$ er/sale%= ,*&2> ,*82> i+es in t#e (alance1 t#e Col" ar an" A%erican :olitics= ,*45,**,> #ttp1)))>cll>)a;ne>e"/ispl%nissan@:AGE:(CH2>#t%l#ere )ill be $e)er people an" less in"/strial an" co%%ercial acti+it; lon a$ter t#e )ar= #ence so%e serio/s

en+iron%ental t#reats )ill be a%eliorate"> (; killin billions an" "estro;in in"/strial in$rastr/ct/res=

n/clear )ar %i#t= $or instance= #alt or slo) "o)n t#e s/specte" tren" o$ lobal )ar%in> -n balance=#o)e+er= the ars o!erall en!ironmental impact ill al%ost certainl; "e on the neati!e si"e>

Alt#o/# t#e extent o$ t#e "a%ae is /nclear=24 it )o/l" be $ar %ore se+ere "/rin t#e

ro)in seasonlate sprin an" s/%%er in t#e nort#ern latit/"es> -ne Cassan"ran an" contro+ersialpre"iction so/n"s a bit like t#e eerie t)ili#t "escribe" in H> G> ells #e i%e !ac#ine> This Mnuclear

inter pro@ection forecasts free.in s/%%erti%e temperatures =25 te%porar; climatic chanes e>>=

+iolent stor%s= "ra%atic re"/ctions in rain$all lo)er e$$iciencies o$ plant p#otos;nt#esis= disruption ofecosystems and farms loss of many species= and the death of millions o$ people from star!ation and

cold> Ho)e+er= e+en t#ese pessi%ists expect a ret/rn to nor%al cli%atic con"itions )it#in a $e) ;ears>26a>2&

o appreciate t#e next en+iron%ental e$$ect o$ n/clear )ar= )e %/st sa; a $e) )or"s abo/t t#e o.one la;er>

-.one is a nat/rall; occ/rrin s/bstance %a"e /p o$ ox;en ato%s> nlike an or"inar; ox;en %olec/le

)#ic# is co%prise" o$ t)o ato%s an" is $airl; stable an o.one %olec/le is co%prise" o$ t#ree ato%s an" itbreaks "o)n %ore rea"il; !ost at%osp#eric o.one is $o/n" so%e ,2 to 30 %iles abo+e t#e eart#s s/r$ace in

t#e stratosp#ere> Stratosp#eric concentrations o$ o.one are %in/sc/le= occ/p;in less t#an one$i$t# o$ one

%illiont# t#e +ol/%e o$ all ot#er ases in t#e stratosp#ere> I$ all t#is o.one co/l" be at#ere" so%e#o) at sea

le+el to $or% a sinle /n"il/te" s#iel" aro/n" t#e eart#= t#is s#iel" )o/l" be as )i"e as t#e t;pical co+er o$ a#ar"co+er book oneei#t# o$ an inc#>2' Ho)e+er= %in/sc/le as its concentrations are= t#e o.one la;er

occ/pies a respectable place in nat/res sc#e%e o$ t#ins> So%e c#e%icals )#ic# are pro"/ce" ro/tinel; b;

%o"ern in"/stnal societ; %a; react )it# stratosp#eric o.one= break it "o)n= an" lo)er its le+els> S/c#

"epletion %a; #a+e t)o a"+erse conse/ences> First= stratosp#eric o.one selecti+el; absorbs s/nli#t incertain portions o$ t#e /ltra+iolet an" in$rare" spectr/%s= so its "epletion )ill ca/se %ore o$ t#is ra"iation to

reac# t#e eart# an" c#ane lobal te%perat/re an" rain$all patte%s> Secon"= b; absorbin %ore t#an **

percent o$ t#e s/ns /ltra+iolet ra"iation= stratosp#eric o.one s#iel"s li$e on eart# $ro% its #ar%$/l e$$ects

so%e scientists $eel t#at terrestrial li$e co/l" not e+ol+e be$ore t#is protecti+e s#iel" took its place> O.one

depletion miht allo more ultra!iolet radiation to reach the earths surface there"y disruptin

natural ecosystems loerin aricultural producti!ity suppressin the human immune system= an"

raisin t#e inci"ence o$ skin cancer an" cataracts>2' Since ,*'5= extensi+e te%porar; re"/ctions o$ t#e o.one

la;er #a+e been obser+e" in polar reions= b/t t#eir ca/ses %an%a"e or nat/ral an" i%plications re%ain/ncertain>2* Fro% ,*', to ,**,= t#e o.one s#iel" o+er t#e ort#ern He%isp#ere #as been "eplete" b; 5

percent= t#ereb; allo)in a ,0 percent increase in /ltra+iolet ra"iation on t#e ro/n"> The connection

"eteen nuclear ar and the o.one layer is simple: the heat created "y nuclear e,plosions produces

hue 'uantities of nitroen o,ides in the surroundin air>25 In a""ition= the launch of solid*fuel missiles

may release hue 'uantities of chlorine and nitroen compounds- 30 These in t/rn= areprecisel; amonthe chemicals that could cause sinificant depletion of the o.onela;er an" lea" to t#e t)o a"+erse

conseO/ences "escribe" abo+e> In t#e $irst "a;s an" )eeks a$ter t#e )ar= s%oke an" "/st )ill pre+ent t#e

increase" /ltra+iolet ra"iation $ro% reac#in t#e eart#s s/r$ace> (/t o.one le+els )ill reac# t#eir na"ir in 6to 24 %ont#s= lon a$ter %ost o$ t#e s%oke an" "/st #a+e settle" back to eart#>2*26b -.one le+els )ill

probabl; be restore" to abo+e *0 percent o$ $or%er le+els )it#in $i+e ;ears a$ter t#e )ar>26b Hence= Ln/clear

)inter an" o.one "epletions are not expecte" to appreciabl; o$$set eac# ot#er> @nder the alteredconditions created "y a nuclear ar= as %an; as B9 percent of the earths species miht "ecome

e,tinct=26c so%e :est pop/lations %i#t te%poraril; increase=26" an" %ost nat/ral co%%/nities %i#t

/n"ero ra"ical trans$or%ations>


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SDI 2006 2B

GHD AT: Spark

Ext En&iron#ent

( ) 3uclear inter o"literates ecosystems

o#n irks= Associate :ro$essor o$ C#e%istr; at t#e ni+ersit; o$ Colora"o= andAnne 0hrlich= Senior Animals that sur!i!ed the cold ould face star!ation as ell asassa/lts $ro%radioacti!ity= 8(= an" air poll/tants> In se+ere "ro/#t or $ree.in con"itions= lack of ater could "e ana""itional pro"lem- The a"ility of ecosystems to function an" pro+i"e li$es/pport ser+ices $or ci+ili.ation

ould "e hea!ily compromisedb; s/c# con"itions> 6opulationso$ %an; +/lnerable oranis%s ould

certainl; perish ith repercussions throuhout food e"s> Herbi+oro/s $oo" specialists )o/l" "isappear

in t#e )ake o$ t#eir $oo"plantsQ t#eir pre"ators )o/l" also soon $in" sli% pickins> (ees an" ot#er insectst#at are essential $or pollination o$ n/%ero/s plants incl/"in "o.ens o$ crops )o/l" be +/lnerable to col"

)eat#er= loss o$ li#t $or na+iation= an" t#e $ail/re o$ %an; plants to $lo)er an" pro"/ce nectar> ater= t#e;co/l" be "isoriente" b; increase" /ltra+iolet li#t= )#ic# is +isible to %an; insects> As nor%al $oo" s/pplies

$or %an; oranis%s in nat/ral ecos;ste%s +anis#e"= sur!i!in animals ouldsoon de!our hate!er

remainedt#at co/l" pro+i"e no/ris#%ent= t#ereb; destroyin seed "ankssee"lins= es= an" ;o/n

ani%alsPthe ellsprins of reco!ery> Insects an" ot#er #/nr; ani%als )o/l" also nat/rall; t/rn to t#e

%ost ab/n"ant so/rce o$ $oo" in taret reions1 crops= )#ic# probabl; co/l" no loner be protecte" b;

pestici"es> An" #/%an s/r+i+ors= )#ose store" $oo" an" crops )ere "a%ae" be;on" /se an" /n"e$en"ableaainst pests= )o/l" t/rn to nat/ral ecos;ste%s to #/nt an" at#er )#ate+er t#e; co/l" $in"> #e oranis%s

t#at )o/l" %ost easil; s/r+i+e s/c# "i$$ic/lt con"itions )o/l" be t#e Bopport/nistic species t#at people

enerall; rear" as pests or )ee"s> #e co%bine" e$$ects o$ "eci%ate" see"banks an" ani%al pop/lations=

soils "era"e" b; erosion= an" contin/e" abnor%al )eat#er )o/l" retar" reeneration o$ ecos;ste%s> #eplant an" ani%al communities thate+ent/all; appeared ould "e impo!erished inspecies di!ersity and

o$ten dominated "y undesira"le opportunistsP+er; "i$$erent $ro% t#e nat/ral co%%/nities o$ coe+ol+e"

oranis%s t#e; replace"> #e t;pical conseO/ences o$ "estro;in nat/ral ecos;ste%s an" i%pairin t#eirser+ices to #/%anit; )o/l" $ollo) a n/clear )ar= b/t on a ran"er scale> #ese )o/l" incl/"e accent/ate"

$loo"s an" "ro/#ts in part "epen"in on t#e "ist/rbance o$ rain$all patterns in"/ce" b; n/clear clo/"s=

increase" soil erosion= siltin o$ strea%s an" reser+oirs= o/tbreaks o$ pests an" "iseases= loss o$ pollination

ser+ices= acc/%/lation o$ )astes an" re"/ce" crop ;iel"s> The a"ility of nature topro+i"e s/stenance an"a"sor" a"use ould "e su"stantially reduced= @/st )#en #/%an s/r+i+ors )ere in "ire nee">


26/43

SDI 2006 25

GHD AT: Spark

Wipeout 2AC General

( ) >uman life is the only rele!ant "arometer you ha!e to "e 199L positi!e human

e,istence is on*"alance orse for the uni!erse- Any defense at all means you !ote aff-

( ) Their e!idence is all ritten "y crackpots you should "e illin to !ote on theutcheck that human life is pro"a"ly a ood thin-

( ) We ha!e an infinite responsi"ility to the other e!en if you think human life is "ad you

dont ha!e the riht to choose for e!eryone else

D> G> yers= Associate pro$essor o$ Enlis# an" reliio/s st/"ies at exas A T != B#t%l

:er#aps t#e best acco/nt o$ responsibilit; to e%ere $ro% t#e Holoca/st is t#at o$ t#e late E%%an/el e+inas> Alt#o/# t#e

p#ilosop#ical "isc/ssion o$ responsibilit; is at least as ol" as AristotlesPolitics= since t#e Holoca/st t#e ter% belons b; ri#ts to

e+inas> A nat/rali.e" Frenc# e) born in o+no= it#/ania= *2 percent o$ )#ose9999 /es ere murdered "yt#e7ermans incl/"in %ost o$ #is $a%il;= Ie!inas sur!i!ed t#e )ar as a Frenc# o$$icer in a po) ca%p near Hano+er= st/";in

Heel= :ro/st= Di"erot= an" > > > It is no %ore t#an a s/pposition=

in"ee" t#e s#a"o) o$ a s/spicion1 t#at eac# %an is #is brot#ers Cain= t#at eac# o$ /s > > > #as /s/rpe" #is nei#bors place an" li+e" in #is stea"> ','2 It is

likel; t#at e+inas )as tor%ente" b; s/c# s#a%e= beca/se #is entire p#ilosop#; ro)s o/t o$ t#e inc#oate anxiet;= )#ic# parallels e+is s#a"o) o$ a

s/spicion= t#at one persons li$e /s/rps anot#ers> All t#ose )#o li+e" t#ro/# t#e ;ears ,*3* to ,*45 retaine" a b/rn on t#eir si"es= #e re%arks= as

t#o/# t#e; #a" to bear $or e+er t#e s#a%e o$ #a+in s/r+i+e" Fro% t#e e+inas ar/es t#at #/%an s/b@ecti+it; or sel$

conscio/snessPthe foundation of the selfQismauvaise conscience= the feelin of "ein Pnot uilty "ut accused-P

Stripped of its intentionality= its reac#in o/t to rasp an ob@ect o$ kno)le"e an other o$ conscio/sness= existin in acon"ition o$ passi+it;=the human su"Dect is put into 'uestion-#at am I? o be= I #a+e to respon"> (/t= $ro% t#at point=

e+inas explains=in affirmint#is me "ein one has to respond to ones riht to "e-PSel$conscio/sness is sel$@/sti$ication= beca/se it is conscio/sness o$ bein )it#o/t t#e intention o$ bein> I a% a)are o$ %; existence= b/t I "i" not#in to brin abo/t %; existence>

An" t#ere$ore I a% pre; to t#e na)ins o$ conscience> Is it possible t#at I ca%e into bein as t#e res/lt o$ a cri%e o$ )#ic# I a% /na)are? e+inas p/ts it

e+en %ore stronl;1 !; beinint#e)orl" or %; place in t#e s/n=my "ein at #o%e= ha!e t#ese not also "een the usurpation

of spaces "elonin to the other%an hom $ ha!e already oppresse" or star+e"= or dri!en out into a t#ir")orl"Q are t#e; not acts o$ rep/lsin= excl/"in= exilin= strippin= killin? :ascals %; place in t#e s/n %arks t#e beinnin o$ t#e i%ae o$ t#e

/s/rpation o$ t#e )#ole eart#> Et#ics as First :#ilosop#; ','2 Since t#e $irst stirrins o$ conscio/sness are t#e na)ins o$ conscience= t#e $irst

O/estion be$ore t#e #/%an s/b@ect is t#e et#ical1 ho are you oin to respond to this uneasy sense of "ein Pnot uilty

"ut accusedPR All #/%an action= e+er; e$$ort to b/"e $ro% t#e passi+it; o$ s/b@ecti+it;= is a response to et#ical c#allene> Hence et#ics are $irstp#ilosop#;= loicall; prior to an; ot#er %o"e o$ t#o/#t> Socrates "eontoloical a"+ice t#at it is better to s/$$er in@/stice t#an to ca/se it Gorias 46*c is

o$ s%all assistance to JoneK #i% )#o is raspe" b; t#e %a/+aise conscience t#at JoneK #e #as alrea"; ca/se" in@/stice> Sel$conscio/sness is not an

ino$$ensi+e action in )#ic# t#e sel$ takes note o$ its bein=Ie!inassa;sQ it is inseparable $ro% a conscio/sness o$ @/stice an" in@/stice

$f $ am not

uilty of hurtin another $ cannot "e "lamed for it "uti$ I ne+ert#eless $eel acc/se" o$ it $ can take

responsi"ility for it-In t#is )a; per#aps I can bot# ease %; conscience an" bein to repair an; "a%ae t#at I %i#t #a+e ca/se">y responsi"ility to theperson I %i#t #a+e #/rtPt#e #/%an OtherorAutrui= in e+inass ter%inolo;Ppreempts any claims of my on- ecause the inDury is co/nter$act/al= beca/se it is not specified and

t#ere$ore not limited my relation to the other is a relation of infinite responsi"ility hich means there is

no escapin itranscen"ence an" Hei#t 202,>'In (/bers $a%iliar ter%s= not to respond is to treatthe other as an $t rather than a Thou an o"Dect to hich thins are done rather than a person ith

hom $ miht speak-(/t $or e+inas t#ere is no not respon"in> To inore another (is) to shame her to%ake #er a)are o$ #er isolation $ro% %e= an" t#/s to "/ck t#e responsibilit; $or not #/rtin #er in t#ese

)a;s> E+er;one is responsible to anot#er )#et#er #e kno)s it or not> (ein #/%an is li+in in responsibilit;>e+inass et#ics are not prescripti+e= t#en= b/t "escripti+e> $t is not that $ should "e responsi"leN $ already

am responsi"le "y !irtue of ha!in consciousness-E+er; ne) enco/nter )it# anot#er raises t#e O/estion #o) I a% oin

to respon" to #er> Alt#o/# it is not prescribe"= #o) to respon" is a "ecision entirel; )it#in %; co%%an"> 0ither $ can accept

responsi"ility or $ can defaultQthere is no third alternati!e-#e in@/stice to anot#er i%poses itsel$ /pon %e=e+inas sa;s= )it#o/t %; bein able to be "ea$ to its call or to $oret it= t#at is= )it#o/t %; bein able to s/spen" %; responsibilit; $or

its "istress !eanin an" Sense 54
http://www-english.tamu.edu/pers/fac/myers/#Hhttp://www-english.tamu.edu/pers/fac/myers/#H


27/43

SDI 2006 2

GHD AT: Spark

Wipeout 2AC General

( ) $nfinite responsi"ility to the other is key to pre!ent enocide their moral system is e!il

eonar" 7ro"= :ro$essor o$ :#ilosop#; at Farlei# Dickinson ni+ersit;= ,*88= Et#ics A$ter t#e Holoca/st= p> ',,

This face*to*face encounter is thus no coniti!e e!ent> As )e #a+e seen= $ cannot kno the Other as Other ithout

diminishin his or her otherness- $ can hoe!er encounter that Other in hat Ie!inas terms an ethical e!ent>In"ee"= it is only ith the rendin of the ontoloical schema that ethics first "ecomes possi"le-6rior to my meetinith the Other there is no ethics as such> it#in t#e totalit; o$ bein= I a% li%ite" in %; eoist a%bition onl; b; a lacko$ po)er> The Other ho meets me face*to*face challenes my !ery riht to e,ercise poer> In so "oin= et#ics is

born> Fonition no loner represents the hihest acti!ity of hich a human is capa"leN it is replaced "yPre!elationP of the Otheras an et#ical e+ent in )#ic#= $or t#e $irst ti%e= I co%e to reali.e t#e arbitrariness o$ %; eoista%bitions> #e t#e%ati.in o$ t#e coniti+e s/b@ect is replace" b; not#in s#ort o$ an act o$ )itness on t#e part o$ a bein

)#o no) beco%es an et#ical s/b@ect> The Other ho contests me is an Other truly independent of my appropriati!epoers and thus one to hom $ can ha!e for the first time ethical o"liations> As e+inas p/ts it= t#is -t#er is t#e$irst bein )#o% I can )is# to %/r"er> (e$ore t#e totalit; is rent b; t#e %ani$estation o$ t#e $ace= t#ere can be no )ill to

act i%%orall;= as t#ere can be no )ill to act %orall;= in an; /lti%ate sense o$ t#at )or"> I$ one beins )it# t#e i%perial

I appropriatin its )orl"= et#ics as s/c# can ne+er be $o/n"e"> #e ot#er )it# )#o% I inter act is si%pl; a "at/%= anaspect o$ %; /ni+erse> !oralit; %akes its $irst appearance )#en I con$ront t#e -t#er )#o is tr/l; -t#er> Althouh the

Other appears to me no on principle as someone $ could ish to kill he or she in fact summons me to respond

ith non!iolence: $ am called to illinly renounce my poer to act immorally- What $ hear from the Other

Ie!inas claims are the ords PThou shalt not kill-P >arkenin to this inDunction constitutes my inauural act as

an ethical "ein-In e+inasRs )or"s= !oralit; beins )#en $ree"o%= instea" o$ bein @/sti$ie" b; itsel$= $eels itsel$ to be arbitrar; an" +iolent>A""ressin t#e $ace o$ t#e -t#er I beco%e et#ical> In a t/rnabo/t $ro% )#at #as been t#e nor% in t#e #istor; o$ estern t#o/#t= et#ics no) is seen= b;

e+inas= to constit/te t#e essence o$ p#ilosop#;> Et#ics is no) $irst p#ilosop#;= a position /s/rpe" /ntil no) b; t#e ontoloical enterprise> #e %eetin

)it# t#e -t#er)#oistr/l;-t#er is a pri%or"ial e+ent1 Since t#e -t#er looks at %e= e+inas exclai%s= I a% responsible $or #i%= )it#o/t e+en #a+in

taken on responsibilities in #is rear" In enco/nterin t#e -t#er= I ass/%e responsibilit; $or #i%>=esponsi"ility= e+inas proclai%s= is

t#eessential primary and fundamental str/ct/re o$ s/b@ecti+it;Y R In ot#er )or"s= my structure as a

human "ein= in an; sini$icant sense o$ t#at )or"= is to "e responsi"le to the Other- y personhood is not to be

i"enti$ie" )it# t#at o$ t#e solitar; eo appropriatin its )orl"Q it is rat#er a person#oo" fundamentally oriented toard

the Other> Et#ics= $or e+inas= is t#/s not to be i"enti$ie" )it# an; et#ical or e+en %etaet#ical position> Ie!inas speaks

neither as deontoloist nor conse'uentialist- >e does not attempt to articulate any list of rihts or o"liations= ore+en t#e principles on )#ic# t#e latter )o/l" be base"> All ethical theories= #e i%plies= are secondary to or deri!ati!e

from a primordial or foundin moment: the encounter ith the face of the Other-It is t#is %o%ento$all%o%ents

)#ic# instit/tes t#e +er; possibilit; o$ t#e et#ical s;ste%s so #otl; "ebate" )it#in t#e #istor; o$ estern t#o/#t>

efore there can "e an; et#ical positioninPbe$ore t#ere can be discussions of +irt/e= happiness= "/ tiesPthere isthe meetin ith the Other> Et#ics is no set o$ "irecti+esQ rat#er= in e+inasRs )or"s= Alrea"; o$ itsel$ et#ics is an Rop

tics=R a )a; o$ seein )#ic# prece"esPan" $o/n"sPall t#at #as #ereto$ore been i"enti$ie" as et#ical p#ilosop#;> The

import of this notion o$ t#e pri%ac; o$ et#ics $or a ret#ink in o$ p#ilosop#; in the post*>olocaust ae cannot "e

emphasi.ed stronl; enouh> For e+inas= p#ilosop#;asontolo; re+eals bein as not#in s#ort o$ )ar1 The !isaeof "ein that shos itself in ar is fi,ed in the concept of totality hich dominates Western philosophy- $ndi!iduals

are reduced to "ein "earers offerees that command them un"eknon to themsel!es> #e %eanin o$ in"i+i"/als

in+isible o/tsi"e o$ t#is totalit; is "eri+e" $ro% t#e totalit;> $ndi!iduals ithin the P"einP constructed "yphilosophers are merely creatures of the schemati.in mind- S/c# a concept o$ p#ilosop#; is illeO/ippe" to a""ress t#e reat et#icaliss/es )#ic# arise in t#e st/"; o$ t#e Holoca/st> In"ee"= $or e+inas= ar is not onl; one o$ t#e or"ealsPt#e reatestPo$ )#ic# %oralit; li+esQ it ren"ers

%oralit; "erisor;> it#in t#e ter%s o$ )ar$are= l;in= stealinPe+en killinPlose )#ate+er et#ical i%port t#e; %i#t #a+e> I si%pl; enae in t#ese acts

as necessar; )it#in t#e /ni+erse create" b; )ar> I$ t#e bein st/"ie" b; tra"itional p#ilosop#; is concei+e" o$ as )ar= %oralit; loses its core %eanin> ot

onl; is no $/n"a%ental et#ical critiO/e o$ t#e e+ents o$ t#e Holoca/st possible )it#in t#e ter%s o$ p#ilosop#;asontolo;= b/t= as I #a+e note" abo+e= it can

be ar/e" t#atthe mode of appropriati!e thinkin of philosophers in our Western tradition has contri"uted to the

creation of a climate in hich enocide can flourish- $f= in ontoloical ter%s= indi!idual "eins are said to ha!e their

meanin solely ithin the totality in hich they find themsel!es totali.in thinkin may ell "ecome totalitarian >e)s an" ot#er !ictims of 3a.i oppression ere dehumani.edprecisel; "y "ein !ieed in terms of racial cateories

applied to them as a hole- I$ philosophy is a mere eoloy as Ie!inas claims the totali.in coniti!e su"Dect canat the far end of a continuum "e seen to pass o!er into the autocratic P$P of the leaders of the Third =eich-Incontrast to t#at appropriati+e t#inkin )#ic# can lea" to t#e br/tal "e#/%ani.ation o$ t#e kin" present in )ar= t#e $aceto$ace relations#ip is a paci$ic one> It

is a relations#ip )inc# establis#es a peace )#ic# is no %ere tr/ce= no te%porar; cessation o$ ine+itable #ostilities> For tra"itional p#ilosop#;= kno)le"e is

po)er= a po)er capable o$ #arnessin tec#nolo; to e+il en"s> #e absol/te en" o$ p#ilosop#; is its oal o$ ac#ie+in total %aster; o$ beinQ it is t#/s not

at all illoical to $oresee a proression $ro% concept/al to p#;sical %aster; o$ oneRs )orl"> -nce t#e loc/s o$ an absol/te is place" in t#e po)ers o$ t#e I=

t#e ot#er person cannot $ail to beco%e %erel; anot#er "at/% in a )orl" )#ose %eanin "eri+es itsel$ entirel; $ro% %e> -$ten I %a; treat #er or #i% in

ter%s o$ )#at in t#e est #as been calle" oo"ness> et s/c# oo"ness= $or e+inas= is acci"ental= t#e pro"/ct o$ a "eter%ination on %; part t#at it is in%; sel$interest to act in a i+en %anner in a i+en sit/ation> #e $/n"a%ental re$erence point re%ains t#e I> Goo"ness t#/s establis#e"= I ar/e= alon

)it# e+inas= is a oo"ness )#ic# is si%pl; not oo" eno/#Z


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SDI 2006 24

GHD AT: Spark

Wipeout 2AC General

( ) 7enocide is the ultimate e!il !otin neati!e makes you complicit

Arne o#an Hetlesen= Depart%ent o$ :#ilosop#;= ni+ersit; o$ -slo= /l; 2999= o/rnal o$ :eace 520522

!ost o$ten= in cases o$ enoci"e= $or e+er; person "irectl; +icti%i.e" an" kille" t#ere )ill be #/n"re"s= t#o/san"s=

per#aps e+en %illions= )#o are neit#er "irectl; tarete" as +icti%s nor "irectl; participatin as perpetrators> The moralissues raised "y enocide= taken as the illeal act par e,cellance are not confined to the ne,us of aent and !ictim-

#ose "irectl; in+ol+e" in a i+en instance o$ enoci"e )ill al)a;s $or% a %inorit;= so to speak> The maDority to the

e!ent ill "e formed "y the contemporary "ystanders> S/c# b;stan"ers are in"i+i"/alsQ in t#eir pri+ate an"

pro$essional li+es= they ill "elon to a !ast score of roups and collecti!es some informal and closely knit othersformal and detached as far as personal and emotional in!ol!ement are concerned> In t#e loose sense inten"e" #ere=e!ery contemporary citi.en coni.ant of a specific onoin instance of enocide reardless of here in the orld

counts as a "ystander>(;stan"ers in t#is loose sense are coni.ant= t#ro/# 8= ra"io= ne)spapers= an" ot#er p/blicl; a+ailable so/rces o$in$or%ation= o$ onoin enoci"e so%e)#ere in t#e )orl"= b/t t#e; are not b; pro$ession or $or%al appoint%ent P in+ol+e" in it> #eirs is a passi+e role=

t#at o$ onlookers= alt#o/# )#at starts o/t as a passi+e stance %a;= /pon "ecision= con+ert into acti+e enae%ent in t#e e+ents at #an"> I s#all label t#is

cateor; passi+e b;stan"ers> #is ro/p s#o/l" be "istin/is#e" $ro% b;stan"ers b; $or%al appoint%ent1 t#e latter b;stan"ers #a+e been pro$essionall;Enae" as a Lt#ir" part; to t#e interaction bet)een t#e t)o parties "irectl; in+ol+e" in acts o$ enoci"e> #e stance o$ t#is t#ir" part; to an onoin

con$lict= e+en one )it# enoci"al i%plications= is in principle o$ten seen as one o$ i%partialit; an" ne/tralit;= t;picall; #i#li#te" b; a "eter%ine" re$/sal

to Ltake si"es> #is %anner o$ principle" nonin+ol+e%ent is $reO/entl; +ie)e" as #i#l; %eritorio/s 8etlesen= ,**'> A case in point )o/l" be

personnel "eplo;e" to %onitor a cease$ire bet)een )arrin parties= or as )as t#eir task in (osnia to see to it t#at t#e ci+ilians )it#in a "eclare" Lsa$e

area are e$$ecti+el; /arantee" Lpeace an" sec/rit;= as set "o)n in t#e %an"ate to establis# s/c# areas> (; +irt/e o$ t#eir assine" p#;sical presence on t#e

scene an" t#e speci$ic tasks i+en to t#e%= s/c# ro/ps o$ b;stan"ers %a; be re$erre" to as b;stan"ers b; assin%ent> #at "oes it %ean to be a

conte%porar; b;stan"er?o bein )it#= let /s consi"er t#is O/estion not $ro% t#e expecte" +ie) point P t#at o$ t#e b;stan"er b/t $ro% t#e t)o

+ie)points pro+i"e" b; t#e parties "irectl; in+ol+e" in t#e e+ent> o p/t it as si%pl; as possible1%rom the !iepoint of an aent ofenocide "ystanders are persons possessin a potentialone nee"in to be esti%ate" in e+er; concrete case to halt

his onoin actions- The perpetrator ill fear the "ystander to the e,tent that he Jor sheK has reason to "elie!e that

the "ystander ill inter!eneto #alt t#e action alrea"; /n"er )a;= and there"y frustrate the perpetrators oal o$eli%inatin t#e tarete" ro/p= t#at sai"= )e i%%e"iatel; nee" to "i$$erentiate a%on t#e "i$$erent cateories o$ b;stan"ers intro"/ce" abo+e> It is ob+io/s

t#at t#e %ore kno)le"eable an" ot#er )ise reso/rce$/l t#e b;stan"er= t#e %ore t#e perpetrator )ill #a+e reason to $ear t#at t#e potential $or s/c# resistance

)ill translate into action= %eanin a %ore or less "irect inter+ention b; %ilitar; or ot#er %eans> Dee%e" e$$icient to reac# t#e ob@ecti+es o$ #altin t#e

incipient enoci"e> -$ co/rse= one s#o/l" "istin/is# bet)een b;stan"ers )#o re%ain inacti+e an" t#ose )#o beco%e acti+el; enae"> onet#eless= t#e

po

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