APRIL 2016

2016 Global Food Policy Report overview

Value chains, food systems

Regional developmentsGreen energy Sustainable

diets

Climate change, smallholders,

SDGs Healthy soilsFood loss and

food wasteWater

management

Food policy indicators

Food policy developments in 2015-16

Sustainable Development GoalsGlobal goals that call for local action

COP21Commitments to slow GHG emissions

WTO ministerial meetingPledged to eliminate distortionary trade policies

Low oil & food pricesOil: Lowest in 11 years

Food: Falling fourth year in a row

Refugee crisisOver 8 million Syrians

food insecure

+

Slow economic growthDriven by slowdown in

emerging economies

2015Climate changeEl Niño: Ethiopia’s worst

drought in 30 years

Source: Fan 2016

Changes in weather patterns require adjustments in farming

• Lower productivity• Increased pressure on ecosystems

Smallholders lack capacity to adapt

• Limited access to assets and services • Policy-related constraints

Photo credit: Alamy Stock Photo/Joerg Boethling

Climate change and agricultureStrengthening the role of smallholders

Source: Nwanze and Fan 2016

Climate change and agricultureStrengthening the role of smallholdersExamples of how support to smallholders can contribute to multiple SDGs

Source: Nwanze and Fan 2016

Food loss and waste occur at different stages along the value chain

Toward a sustainable food systemReducing food loss and waste

Source: Schuster and Torero 2016

Photo credit: AP Images Photo/Stephanie Pillick

Toward a sustainable food systemReducing food loss and waste

Reducing food loss and waste is critical for sustainability

• Create standard definition, measurable quantitative and qualitative criteria

• Set concrete targets at regional and country levels

• Engage in national and local awareness campaigns

• Invest to improve storage, transport, access to credit for smallholders

Source: Schuster and Torero 2016

Multiple demands on water

Water, nutrition and healthFinding win-win strategies for water management

Source: Ringler and Passarelli 2016

• Implement institutional reforms for efficiency of water distribution

• Introduce economic incentives to water management e.g. taxes, quotas, use rights

• Invest in traditional technologies (e.g. dams) and nontraditional ones (e.g. green infrastructure) to improve sustainability

• Improve conveyance, distribution, application efficiency of irrigation systems

Photo credit: IWMIPhoto/Prashanth Vishwanathan

Water, nutrition and healthFinding win-win strategies for water management

Source: Ringler and Passarelli 2016

Global annual cost of land degradation, 2001-2009

Land and soil managementPromoting healthy soils for healthier agricultural systems

Source: Koo et al. 2016

Proposed actions• Implement sustainable intensification

technologies

• Invest in perennials to improve soil health

• Promote climate-smart soil and land management

• Manage ecosystem services at landscape level, coordinating across farm boundaries

• Recognize soil, land, and ecosystem services as public goods

Photo credit: Panos Photo/Alfredo Caliz

Land and soil managementPromoting healthy soils for healthier agricultural systems

Source: Koo et al. 2016

• Meeting SDGs will require joint, context-specific solutions

• Understanding how value chains bring food from farm to table can help identify solutions

Nutrition and sustainabilityHarnessing value chains to improve food systems

Source: Allen, de Brauw, and Gelli 2016

A milk value chain

Designing better value chain interventions

• Fill knowledge gaps on productivity, diet quality, environmental sustainability

• Analyze and manage trade-offs between nutritious food production, land and water inputs, and climate change risks

• Engage private sector to align public and private objectives

Photo credit: Panos Photo/Jacob Silberberg

Nutrition and sustainabilityHarnessing value chains to improve food systems

Source: Allen, de Brauw, and Gelli 2016

Food system’s contribution to energy use and greenhouse gas emissions

Green energyFueling the path to food security

Shar

e of

glo

bal t

otal

(%)

Source: Arndt, Msangi, and Thurlow 2016

Promising green energy solutions• Solar power in Africa

• Mini-grid solar may be lowest-cost technology option for rural areas

• Biofuels• High-quality biofuels in poor countries can

reduce transport fossil fuel use• Rising global demand for biofuels could raise

rural incomes

• Improved cookstoves • Substitute for cleaner fuels such as natural gas• Can reduce biomass—one of largest sources

of global greenhouse gas emissionsPhoto credit: Panos Photo/Abbie Trayler-Smith

Green energyFueling the path to food security

Source: Arndt, Msangi, and Thurlow 2016

Global diet trends• Overconsumption of calories• Overconsumption of protein, shift toward

animal-based sources• Rising beef consumption

Proposed diet shifts• Reduce overconsumption of calories

• Lessen intake of animal-based food, especially beef• Can lead to largest reduction of agric.

land use, greenhouse gas emissionsPhoto credit: Panos Photo/Mark Henley

Shifting dietsToward a sustainable food future

Source: Ranganathan et al. 2016

New approaches to shifting diets: Shift Wheel framework

Shifting dietsToward a sustainable food future

Source: Ranganathan et al. 2016

Regional and national developments MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA

• Persistent conflict in Syria • Rising prevalence of overnutrition

SOUTH ASIA• Bangladesh: New nutrition, food safety

policy• India: New sanitation, irrigation program

AFRICA• 18 countries achieved poverty MDG• El Niño; Conflicts in Nigeria, Somalia,

South Sudan

LATIN AMERICA & CARRIBBEAN• Poverty & hunger MDGs achieved• Increasing overweight, obesity

EAST ASIA• China: New food safety regulation• Asian Infrastructure Investment

Bank established

Source: Fan 2016

Regional developments: Africa

Poverty, hunger, child stunting (Annual average, %)

Progress from 2003 to 2014• Poverty: 43% to 37% • Hunger: 22% to 17%• Stunting: 40% to 36%

BUT econ. growth is slow• GDP 1.3% (2008-14)

Looking forward• Accelerate economic growth • Reduce fatalities from civil unrest• Promote youth employment

Headcount poverty($1.25/day)

Poverty gap(national poverty)

Prevalence of hunger

Prevalence of child stunting

Source: Badiane, Makombe, and Collins 2016

Looking forward• Peace-building via development activities at local and national levels• Education and subsidy reforms to improve nutrition• Research and improved data gathering and analysis

Refugees originating from & hosted by Arab region

Regional developments: Middle East and North Africa

Source: Khouri and Breisinger 2016

Source: Khouri and Breisinger 2016

Regional developments: Central Asia

Russian economic downturn • Reduced remittances, return

of migrant workers, currency volatility

Vulnerabilities• China and Russia economic

slowdown• El Niño• Lack of social protection

Declining commodity prices• Collapse of export revenues

• Develop policies to mitigate macroeconomic, structural imbalances

• Promote climate change adaptation strategies

• Improve social protection to reduce poverty, hunger, effects of external shocks

Looking forward

Source: Akramov and Park 2016

Regional developments: South Asia

Numerous challenges to food security and nutrition• Bangladesh: Social unrest• India, Pakistan: Extreme weather events e.g. drought, unseasonable rain• Nepal: Earthquake

Looking forward—increase transparency in governance, consolidate programs, attract private sector investment in infrastructure

Population in poverty, undernourished (%)

Source: Joshi et al. 2016

Source: Joshi et al. 2016

Regional developments: East Asia

• China: High priorities incl. food safety, land reform, sustainable production

• Thailand: struggling with results of rice-buying policy—huge stockpiles of costly rice

• Indonesia and Philippines: El Niño wreaked havoc on rice production, causing high imports and price increases

• Global warming, changing diets, and rising incomes will continue to strain supply chains

• Trans-Pacific Partnership likely to benefit, but force countries to give up self-sufficiency policies and restructure ag programs

• New Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank likely to play a key role in future development efforts

Looking forward

Source: Chen, Timmer, and Chiang 2016

MDGs • Hunger, poverty halved

Deforestation • Slowing but should be

closely monitored• 1.7 million hectares

deforested in 2014

Slow economic growth • Low commodity prices,

decline in capital flows, little infrastructure investments

Looking forward• Global economic slowdown may

lead to rising unemployment, poverty

• Regional Plan for Food Security must strengthen policies, including safety nets

• Persistence of negative weather conditions—devise coherent set of macroeconomic, sectoral policies

Regional developments: Latin America and the Caribbean

Source: Díaz-Bonilla and Torero 2016

Food policy indicators

Agricultural Total Factor Productivity

(TFP)

Food Policy Research Capacity

Indicators(FPRCI)

Statistics on Public Expenditure for

Economic Development

(SPEED)

Global Hunger Index (GHI)

Ag Science and Technology Indicators

(ASTI)

The global food system is unsustainable...

…it must be

reshaped to achieve

multiple SDGs

Photo credit: IFAD/Susan Beccio

Reshaping the global food system for sustainable development

New food system

Efficient

Inclusive

Climate-smart

Sustainable

Nutrition- and health-driven

Business-friendly

Over half of SDGs relate to food security and nutrition

Source: Fan 2016