GEWEX 1988 SPARC 1992

WOCE 1990-2002

CLIVAR 1995

TOGA 1985-1994

WGNEWGCMWGSF

ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000

SOLAS 2001 ->

Recent and Expected Deliverables

• SPARC reference climatology (done)• SPARC Aerosol Assessment• Review paper on the “Annular Modes”• Report on Chemistry-Climate• Instituted new PSC assessment for next

WMO ozone assessment• Instituted group on GWP of HFC-134a

for IPCC

http://www.aero.jussieu.fr/~sparcSPARC 1992

Stratospheric Chemistry

and Climate

Stratosphere-Troposphere coupling

Detection, Attribution & Prediction of Stratospheric

Changes

Model

Development

Process

StudiesData

SPARC’s New Themes

Workshop on “Process-oriented validation of coupled-chemistry climate models”

Grainau / Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, November 2003Conveners: V. Eyring, N.R.P. Harris, M. Rex, T.G. Shepherd

MotivationCCMs have different levels of complexity, produce a wide range of results concerning

timing and extent of ozone recovery and the overall confidence of ozone predictions is currently hard to assess

Scope Develop a standard for process-oriented model validationwith a focus on the model’s ability to predict future ozone

Outcome A table of core processes for stratospheric CCMs within 4 categories Dynamics, Chemistry & Microphysics, Radiation, and Transport For each process, the table includes model diagnostics, variables relevant to apply the diagnostic in CCMs, sources of observational data, references, contacts and links

Desires CCM groups apply diagnostics in a step-wise approach over the next years

Broad support from atmospheric science community and programme managers

Way ahead SPARC working group on CCM validation: progress canbe made in time for next WMO-UNEP and IPCC assessments

Development of diagnostic software packages

Benefit Overall confidence in CCMs will increase

http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/workshops/ccm2003

SPARC General Assembly1-6 August 2004Victoria, Canada

http://sparc.seos.uvic.ca

http://www.sparc.sunysb.edu

ftp://atmos.sparc.sunysb.edu

Directory: /pub/sparc

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

New Satellite Launches

Version 2

C1 and C2

ISCCP(Clouds)

SRB(Radiation)

GVAP(Water Vapour)

ISCCP 2D1 and DX

GVAPNVAP

ISLSCP(Land-Surface)

Version 2 Version 1.1

*Hatched lines represent planned data sets

Initiative IIInitiative I

GACPGACP(Aerosols)

III

GPCP(Precipitation)

TRMMTRMMTERRATERRA

ENVISATENVISATAQUAAQUA

ADEOSIIADEOSII

Global data sets

www.gewex.org

HOWEVER, TRENDS DERIVED FROM GEWEXSATELLITE CLOUD PRODUCTSINDICATE THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HAVEBEEN DECREASING DURING THE SAMEPERIOD.

WHAT INFLUENCES HAVE THESE POSSIBLE DECREASES IN CLOUD COVER HAD ON THE RECENT TRENDS IN TEMPERATURE? The same for water vapour?

MODELS PROJECT TEMPERATURE INCREASES ASSOCIATED WITH CO2INCREASES. OBSERVATIONS INDICATEWARMER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURING.

GPCP: No evidence for a GPCP: No evidence for a significant global trend over significant global trend over last 20 years...last 20 years...

0.60.40.20.0

-0.2-0.4-0.6

0.60.40.20.0

-0.2-0.4-0.60.60.40.20.0

-0.2-0.4-0.6

0.30.20.10.0

-0.1-0.2-0.3

0.30.20.10.0

-0.1-0.2-0.30.30.20.10.0

-0.1-0.2-0.3

7979 8181 8383 8585 8787 89 91 93 95 97 99 01

But regional trends But regional trends existexist

Curtis/Adler/Huffman 912Curtis/Adler/Huffman 912

CEOP Implementation Underway

Timing of new satellites & GEWEX/CLIVAR campaigns provides opportunity for significant benefit from a more

coordinated observation period.

Monsoon Experiment inSouth America (MESA)

North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)

(MDB)

Coordinated EnhancedObserving Period

The First Global Integrated Data Sets of the Water Cycle

WCRP:

www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp/wcrp-home.html

SPARC:

www.aero.jussieu.fr/~sparc

Climate – chemistry model intercomparison workshop:www.pa.op.dlr.de/workshops/ccm2003

SPARC data centre: www.sparc.sunysb.edu,

ftp server: atmos.sparc.sunysb.edu, directory /pub/sparc

SPARC General Assembly: sparc.seos.uvic.ca

GEWEX: www.gewex.org