german property partners | gewerbeimmobilien - the stuttgart … · 2017. 3. 8. · ellwanger &...
TRANSCRIPT
P R I V A T B A N K
P R I V A T E I M M O B I L I E N
R E A L E S T A T E
F U N D S & A S S E T
The Stuttgart Investment Market 2016/2017. With Market Trends for Munich.
Contents.
Stuttgart
Market Trends ............................................................................................ 3
Key Figures ................................................................................................... 4
Outlook for 2017 ......................................................................................... 6
Your Contact Partners ................................................................................. 7
Munich
Market Trends ............................................................................................. 8
ELLWANGER & GEIGER Real Estate .......................................................10
German Property Partners ......................................................................11
Photo Source Cover: Stefan Schilling
With a transaction volume of 2 billion euros in 2016, the property invest-ment market in Stuttgart has surpas-sed the record year 2015. Regarding transaction volume, 2016 has actually been the strongest year ever. Only in 2007 and 2015 could similar results be achieved. In fact, the transaction volume of 2015 was exceeded by 200 million euros or 11.1 per cent. With this new record high, the 1 billion euro mark has been broken for the fifth consecutive year. While the first three quarters in 2016 were rather ba-lanced with a volume of around 350 million euros, the final quarter came to be the most successful ever with about 900 million euros in transacti-on volume.
In total, 80 transactions were conclu-ded in 2016. Around 40 per cent of the prices ranged in the single-digit millions.
During the reporting period, inves-tors showed an increased interest in office property. This asset class alone accounted for around 65 per cent of the total investment volume – not least due to the top sales of “City Gate”, “Europe Plaza” and “City Plaza”. Retail property achieved a share of
ca. 11 per cent, followed by plots and development projects and residential property with around 9 per cent each. Buyers were predominantly open-en-ded funds and German Special Funds with around 36 per cent, as well as opportunity funds and equity funds with about 24 per cent of the total transaction volume. Private investors and family offices, as well as insuran-ces and pension funds accounted for 8 per cent of transactions in 2016, followed by property developers and asset managers each generating 7 per cent of the transaction volume.
On the vendor side, project develo-pers dominated the market with a share of 33 per cent. REITs (Immobilien-AG´s) were also very active on the market creating a turnover of 15 per cent. They were followed by private vendors and fa-mily offices accounting for 10 per cent and closed funds with around 9 per cent of the transaction activities in 2016.
While the share of foreign investors had been relatively low in 2015 with only 16 per cent, this figure rose on the buyer side to around 49 per cent – mainly as a result of the selling of the
IVG subsidiary Officefirst to Blacksto-ne. As vendors foreign market players made a relatively small contribution with just 17 per cent of the property sold in 2016.
Fully let office property at inner city locations reached multipliers of up to 26.0, which corresponds to a gross in-itial yield of ca. 3.8 per cent. For high street property, multipliers of up to 28.5 (3.5% gross initial yield) could be achieved. Long-term, fully let office property in city fringe and peripheral locations gained multipliers between 17 and 21 (approx. 5.9 to 4.75 % gross initial yield).
The Stuttgart property investment market continues to perform on a very high level. Initial forecasts from the beginning of 2016, calling for roughly 1.5 billion euros in transacti-on volume, were clearly surpassed. A major factor for the record result was the fact that the sale of Officefirst to Blackstone included three large scale commercial properties in Stuttgart.
Investor Focus on Office Property.
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Top-3-deals
SchwabenGalerie: Swiss life has acquired this shopping centre from Deutsche Fonds Holding (DFH) for a purchase price between 120 and 130 million euros.
CityGate: As part of a share deal, Eastern Property Holding (EPH) acquired 94% of the property company for around 110 million euros.
Telekom-Areal: J.P. Morgan Asset management paid around 95 million euros to New Star for this office complex in Stuttgart.
Photo Source: Stefan Schilling
New Record High in Stuttgart.
Transaktionsvolumen/Renditenüberlick I 4
Transaction Volume Stuttgart* in bn euros
Source of both illustrations: Research ELLWANGER & GEIGER Real Estate GmbH ©, 31.12.2016
Top Yields for Commercial Property in Stuttgart in %
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2010 2011 2012 2013 20142011
0.50
2012
1.20
/1.6
0**
2013
1.00
2014
1.15
2015
1.80
/2.4
5**
20162.
00* included Leinfelden-Echterdingen
** including residential portfolios
20152014201320122011 2016
4.60
5.50
7.50
7.50
5.25
4.60
7.50
5.25
4.60
4.25
5.00
7.25
4.25
4.50
6.25
5.50
3.80
3.50
8.00
7.00
6.80
5.70 5.
80
Retail Centres
Logistics
Office
Highstreet
Key Figures.
5 I Nutzungsarten/Käufer-/Verkäufergruppen
Transaction Volume by Vendor in %
Source of all illustrations: Research ELLWANGER & GEIGER Real Estate GmbH ©, 31.12.2016
Transaction Volume by Asset Class in %
Transaction Volume by Buyer in %
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Office
Retail
Plots/ Development Projects
Residential
Hotel Others
65 %
11 %
9 %
5 %
1 %
9 %
REITs
Private Investoren/Family Offices
Closed Funds
Open-ended Funds/Special Funds
Property Developers
Public Institutions
Others
Property Holders
Corporates/Owner-Occupiers/Non-Properties
Pensions Funds/Insurances
Opportunity Funds/Equity Funds
33 % 15 %
10 %
9 %
8 %8 %5 %
4 %
4 %
2 %
2 %
Property Holders
Public Institutions
Closed Funds
Pensions Funds/Insurances
Banks
Corporates/Owner-Occupiers/Non-Properties
Property Developers
Private Investors/ Family Offices
Open-ended Funds/Special Funds
REITs
Opportunity Funds/Equity Funds
24 %
36 %
8 %
8 %
7 %
5 %
4 %
3 %2 %2 %1 %
Photo Source: Stefan Schilling
Key Figures.
For the year 2017, continuing high dy-namics can be expected on the property investment market in Stuttgart. As the economic environment in the Stuttgart region remains very positive, Stuttgart will continue to be an attractive location for property investments in the future. The Stuttgart property market stands for a low volatility in one of the strongest
economic regions in Europe. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that the willing-ness to invest here is undiminished. As a result of this high demand, returns on property investments are expected to consolidate on a rather low level. The limited supply of Core property will trig-ger an increased demand for Core-plus and Value-added products.
In consideration of these market condi-tions, a comparable transaction volume as in 2016 cannot be assumed again for 2017. Nonetheless, we expect a high level of transaction activity on the Stuttgart property market and an overall transaction volume of 1.5 billion euros.
Outlook for 2017.
6 IPhoto Source: Stefan Schilling
In the property investment business, long-standing experience, strategic thinking and utmost discretion are in-dispensable assets. When it comes to commercial property in Germany, you can count on our own market research, our professional transaction manage-ment and our deep market knowledge.
Our team in Stuttgart looks forward to your call or visit.
You can reach us at:
Phone +49 711/2148-286
or Fax +49 711/2148-290.
Find us on the internet:
www.ellwanger-geiger.com
Björn HolzwarthManaging Director Phone +49 711/2148-192 [email protected]
Simone WiedmannConsultant Investment Phone +49 711/2148-375 [email protected]
Michael LindenConsultant Investment Phone +49 711/2148-205 [email protected]
Tobias SchneiderConsultant Investment Phone +49 711/2148-105 [email protected]
Stefan KnödlerConsultant Investment Phone +49 711/2148-196 [email protected]
Limitation of liability
This study has been drawn up with the greatest care. We must however ask you to be understanding of the fact that we cannot admit any liability for the
correctness of the estimates given here.
Your Contact Partners.
Penelope VlahuSales Assistent Phone +49 711/2148-286 [email protected]
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Market Trends - Munich.
Transaction Volume München in bn euros
A superb final spurt facilitated a record year on the Munich investment market. The very high turnover of the previous year could be surpassed again in 2016. In sum, commercial property to the value of around 6.4 billion euros has been transferred in the Bavarian state capital. Compared to 2015, this corresponds to an increase in sales of just under 19 per cent. 17 larger scale deals with a selling volume of more than 100 million euros each, some of them significantly higher, accounted for a share of approximately 54 per cent of the total transaction vo-lume.Office property has remained the most sought-after asset class in 2016, cont-ributing to circa 74 per cent of the tur-
nover on the Munich investment mar-ket. Compared with the second half of 2016, the first two quarters were rather held back. The most significant property transactions in the first six months were the sale of BayWA Tower at Arabellen-strasse for around 280 million euros to Wealthcap, as well as the former Sie-mens areal at Richard-Strauss-Strasse for around 120 million euros to Baye-rische Versorgungskammer. During the fulminant fourth quarter of 2016, ten out of the seventeen transactions above the 100 million euro mark were signed. The disposal of Highlight Tower at Park-stadt Schwabing was by far the largest single asset deal on the Munich inves-tment market. CommerzReal sold this
office twin tower for over 500 million euros shortly before the end of the year. This deal plus the Munich share of the Officefirst portfolio, accounting for more than 700 million euros, were one-off ef-fects with a major positive impact on the record result in 2016.Top yields for office property remained under pressure over the course of the year ranging at 3.35 per cent by the end of 2016.While a significant demand for proper-ty investments could be observed for all asset classes, especially Core property continues to be highly sought after. Due to a diminishing supply, products in this asset class are achieving respectively high multipliers.
Source: Research Ellwanger & Geiger Real Estate GmbH ©, 31.12.2015
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2.85
3.70
4.15
4.97
5.45
6.40
201620152014201320122011
Top-3-deals
HighLight Towers: In the fourth quarter, CommerzReal acquired the office landmark from a fund subsidiary of KanAm for around 500 million euros.
Campeon: Ganeba sold this office campus to Infineon for approx. 300 million euros.
Baywa.Tower: WealthCap paid ca. 280 million euros to Baywa/Competo for this of- fice highrise.
Vendors & Buyers
With a share of more than 70 per cent, German investors remained the prin-cipal players on the Munich invest-ment market in 2016. On the vendor and on the buyer side alike, especially open-ended funds, Special Funds and pension funds continued to dominate the market.
Outlook for 2017
Also in 2017, the lights are all green for investments in commercial pro-perty. Sustainable changes to the cur-rently low interest rates are not to be expected, and alternative investment opportunities have not yet become attractive enough again. In combina-tion with a high level of liquidity on the market, a continuing high de-
mand for property investments can be expected. Only the supply of suitable products will get ever tighter. Also the extraordinary transaction activities of the last few years will have an impact on the market and could slow down the transaction turnover in 2017. Des-pite these market conditions, we ex-pect a continuously high volume of transactions ranging at around 5 bil-lion euros.
Alexander ZiganBranch Manager Munich Fon +49 89/179594-20 [email protected]
Ihre Ansprechpartner.
Björn HolzwarthManaging DirectorFon +49 89/179594-10 Fon +49 711/2148-192 [email protected]
Stefan KnödlerConsultant Investment Fon +49 89/179594-11Fon +49 711/2148-196 [email protected]
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Entwicklungen 2015/2016 I 15
ELLWANGER & GEIGER Real Estate.
Real Estate
Systematic research form the basis for our analyses of location, portfolios and cost-effectiveness that reflect market conditions. From these, we derive stra-tegies aimed at capitalising on poten-tials for earnings and efficiencies. In addition to comprehensive leasing services, our core expertise includes project consulting and transaction bu-siness. We adopt a hostic approach in consulting on real estate: we partner you all the way - from the develop-ment of marketing strategies to the preparation of data on properties and the implementation of marketing pro-cesses.
Our services
Research Investment analyses and consulting Transactions, renting and leasing of
office, retail, industrial and logistics space
Funds & Asset Management
We develop, plan and manage custo-mised real estate investment products and special funds for institutional and professional private investors. We select different investment vehicles depending on the needsand product preferences of each inves-tor:
Domestic special AIFs pursuant to the German investment Code Closed-ended public AIFs pursuant
to the German Investment Code Luxembourg security funds and
special funds (SICAV, SIF) individual schemes for offshore
investors
We select investment volumes that permit niche investments and indivi-dual mandates. We also limit the number of investors so that we can provide individualised support throug-hout the investment period. Our ser-vice naturally includes transparent re-porting with detailed reports on funds, monthly financial reports and status reports on real estate investments.
Our offices
StuttgartBörsenplatz 170174 StuttgartPhone +49 711/2148-300Fax +49 711/2148-290
MunichHerzog-Rudolf-Straße 180539 MünchenPhone +49 89/17 95 94-0Fax +49 89/17 95 94-55
ELLWANGER & GEIGER Real Estate offers you a one-stop shop for a comprehensive range of ser-vices relating ro the asset class of real estate. With the very highest discretion and integrity, we enable you to keep your bearings in rapidly changing markets. Our success is founded aboce all on excellentknowledge of the market and decades of experience in real estate business.
Our further publications
Stuttgart Industrial & Logistics Market Report Stuttgart Office Market Report Munich Office Market Report
and other information materials may be obtained free of charge from:[email protected] or www.ellwanger-geiger.de.
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Our further publications
Stuttgart Industrial & Logistics Market Report Stuttgart Office Market Report Munich Office Market Report
and other information materials may be obtained free of charge from:[email protected] or www.ellwanger-geiger.de.
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Our services range from property inves-tments to commercial lettings. For in-vestors, we buy and sell industrial and logistics property all over Germany - as single asset or entire property portfolio. Due to the banking background of the founding members ELLWANGER & GEI-GER (Stuttgart/Munich) and Grossmann & Berger (Hamburg/Berlin), we are able to support your project developments also in financial aspects.
No matter is you are looking for office, retail, industrial, or logistics space - with GPP you will always have a competent
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Find out more about the top 7 com-mercial real estate locations in our free-of-charge GPP Commercial Market Reports at:
http://www.germanpropertypartners.de/en/market-survey/
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ELLWANGER & GEIGER Real Estate GmbHUnternehmensgruppe ELLWANGER & GEIGER PrivatbankiersBörsenplatz 1, 70174 StuttgartPhone +49 711/2148-300, Fax: +49 711/2148-290www.ellwanger-geiger.deAmtsgericht Stuttgart, HRB 733293, Geschäftsführer: Mario Caroli, Björn Holzwarth