Monday, June 1, 2015

MEMO: GEORGIA VOTERS WANT CONGRESS TO PASS TRADE BILL TO: Main Street Growth & Opportunity Coalition and Interested Parties FROM: Cory Brown, VP - Data & Strategy RE: Issue Survey of Likely Georgia Voters About the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) Cygnal conducted a statewide telephone survey in Georgia last week on behalf of the Main Street Growth & Opportunity Coalition. The goal was to examine the current state of public opinion of likely general election voters concerning the Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) being debated in the House. KEY FINDINGS

A majority (50%) of Georgia voters disapprove of the job Georgia members of Congress are doing to improve the economy and create jobs.

A plurality (46%) approves of the job Georgia members of Congress are doing to improve the economy and create jobs. Only 24% approve of the overall job Congress is doing.

Georgians overwhelmingly support the federal Trade Promotion Authority legislation. 76% believe TPA will potentially increase trade exports and create more Georgia jobs.

Republican voters say they are 59% more likely to vote for a member of Congress who supported the TPA legislation.

In a red state where President Obama does not have very high approval ratings, 75% of respondents agree that a president - regardless of party - should have the authority to negotiate trade agreements pending congressional approval, which is a core tenet of TPA.

A strong majority of Republicans (66%) are supportive of giving the president the authority to negotiate trade agreements as TPA provides.

64% of Democrat voters believe that free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a good thing for the United States.

Despite the contentious national debate surrounding TPA, 67% of respondents with a high propensity to vote believe Congress should renew Trade Promotion Authority.

SUMMARY Georgia voters regardless of party, age, or geography intensely support the Trade Promotion Authority currently being debated in the US House. Considering the strong Republican bent of the state, it is powerful to see such a broad desire to provide trade negotiation authority to the president. These results show that Georgia voters want their congressmen to vote for TPA and create jobs. METHODOLOGY This telephone survey was conducted May 28-30, 2015 with 500 likely Georgia general election voters. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.38%. Interviews were conducted using IVR technology to landlines and live operator to cell phones. Landline interviews constituted 73% of the calls, while 27% were conducted by cell phone. Cygnal is a national communication and research firm. During the 2014 cycle, the firm conducted over 160 highly accurate polls in 12 states. While the national average for public polling in 2014 a rough year for polls was an 8-point difference in survey results versus Election Day results, Cygnals was only a 2-point difference, less than half its polls average margin of error.

Q 1: How likely are you to vote in next year's presidential election?

Total Total 500

Definitely

471 94.3%

Probably

29 5.7%

Q 2: Do you approve or disapprove of the overall job Congress is doing?

Total Total 500

Approve

120 24.1%

Strongly approve

29 5.8%

Somewhat approve

91 18.3%

Disapprove

359 71.7%

Somewhat disapprove

141 28.3%

Strongly disapprove

217 43.5%

Unsure

21 4.2%

Q 3: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Georgia members of Congress are doing to improve the economy and create jobs?

Total Total 500

Approve

229 45.7%

Strongly approve

49 9.8%

Somewhat approve

180 36.0%

Disapprove

252 50.4%

Somewhat disapprove

138 27.6%

Strongly disapprove

114 22.8%

Unsure

19 3.9%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing Conducted May 28-30, 2015 n=500 | (4.38%)

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Q 4: Do you believe Congress should renew Trade Promotion Authority if it would help create Georgia jobs and support the U.S. economy?

Total Total 500

Yes

298 59.7%

No

123 24.5%

Unsure

79 15.8%

Q 5: Do you support the Trade Promotion Authority legislation that could potentially increase trade exports and create more Georgia jobs?

Total Total 500

Support

380 76.0%

Strongly support

213 42.6%

Mostly support

167 33.4%

Disagree

75 15.0%

Mostly disagree

50 10.1%

Strongly disagree

25 4.9%

Unsure

45 9.0%

Q 6: Do you agree or disagree that a president - regardless of party - should have the authority to negotiate trade agreements pending congressional approval?

Total Total 500

Agree

373 74.7%

Strongly agree

214 42.7%

Mostly agree

160 31.9%

Disagree

103 20.7%

Mostly disagree

58 11.6%

Strongly disagree

45 9.1%

Unsure

23 4.7%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Q 7: Would you be more or less likely to support a member of Congress who voted for the Trade Promotion Authority legislation discussed in this survey?

Total Total 500

More likely

314 62.8%

Much more likely

123 24.6%

Somewhat more likely

191 38.2%

Less likely

108 21.5%

Somewhat less likely

64 12.9%

Much less likely

43 8.7%

Undecided

78 15.7%

Q 8: In general, do you think that free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a good thing or a bad thing for the United States?

Total Total 500

Good thing

315 63.0%

Very good thing

105 21.0%

Somewhat good thing

210 42.0%

Bad thing

130 25.9%

Somewhat bad thing

84 16.9%

Very bad thing

45 9.0%

Undecided

55 11.1%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Q 9: Supporters of the TPA trade legislation say it will add more jobs to our economy, end gridlock, and protect America's interests. Does this make you more or less likely to support Congress' approval of the trade bill?

Total Total 500

More likely

315 62.9%

Much more likely

119 23.9%

Somewhat more likely

195 39.0%

Less likely

100 19.9%

Somewhat less likely

61 12.2%

Much less likely

39 7.7%

Makes no difference

57 11.4%

Unsure

29 5.7%

Q 10: Opponents of the TPA trade legislation say it will give a president too much authority and keep details of trade agreements secret until Congress votes on them. Does this make you more or less likely to support Congress' approval of the trade bill?

Total Total 500

More likely

190 38.0%

Much more likely

77 15.3%

Somewhat more likely

113 22.7%

Less likely

220 44.0%

Somewhat less likely

134 26.8%

Much less likely

86 17.2%

Makes no difference

56 11.1%

Unsure

34 6.9%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Q 11: What age range do you fall within?

Total Total 500

18-34

90 17.9%

35-49

134 26.8%

50-64

158 31.7%

65 or older

118 23.6%

Gender

Total Total 500

Female

277 55.5%

Male

223 44.5%

Media Market

Total Total 500

Atlanta Metro

168 33.6%

Rest of Atlanta

187 37.5%

Augusta/Macon/Columbus

73 14.6%

Albany/Savannah

51 10.2%

Dothan/Tallahassee/Jacksonville

20 4.0%

Race

Total Total 500

White

281 56.2%

Black

153 30.7%

Other

66 13.1%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Party

Total Total 500

Democrat

150 30.0%

Non-Partisan

157 31.3%

Republican

193 38.7%

Congressional District

Total Total 500

1

36 7.2%

2

33 6.7%

3

47 9.5%

4

56 11.2%

5

21 4.3%

6

37 7.5%

7

34 6.8%

8

39 7.8%

9

37 7.4%

10

26 5.2%

11

35 7.0%

12

26 5.2%

13

38 7.5%

14

34 6.8%

Georgia Statewide - Issues Testing - May 28-30, 2015

Q 17: Voter Propensity

Total Total 500

Highest

179 35.9%

High

137 27.3%

Average

86 17.3%

Low

98 19.5%

Phone Type

Total Total 500

Landline

364 72.8%

Cell

136 27.2%