georgia polling · 6 9) if the election for secretary of state were held today and the candidates...

20
1 Georgia Polling Executive Summary Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 650 likely voters across Georgia. The poll was conducted from July 27 th through the 29 th and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell phone users and interactive voice responses. The results are weighted by voting demographics. The poll was paid for by Gravis Marketing. 3) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of President Trump’s job performance? Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male Q3: TRUMPPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 28.9% 14.4% 23.0% 3.8% 33.1% 15.2% 14.6% 9.6% 8.4% 12.5% 10.6% Somewhat Disapprove 18.7% 4.6% 3.6% 13.1% 0.0% 7.9% 13.5% 9.6% 3.3% 8.1% 10.8% Strongly Approve 4.8% 73.7% 14.6% 2.4% 0.0% 17.8% 25.2% 35.9% 53.5% 30.9% 37.1% Strongly Disapprove 32.3% 5.7% 58.8% 72.9% 57.8% 46.9% 40.5% 40.5% 32.5% 43.2% 35.8% Uncertain 15.3% 1.7% 0.0% 7.7% 9.1% 12.2% 6.1% 4.3% 2.3% 5.3% 5.7% Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

Upload: duongliem

Post on 10-Oct-2018

215 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

1

Georgia Polling

Executive Summary

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 650 likely voters across Georgia. The poll was conducted from July 27th through

the 29th and has a margin of error of ±3.8%. The totals may not round to 100% because of rounding. The survey was conducted using an online panel of cell

phone users and interactive voice responses. The results are weighted by voting demographics. The poll was paid for by Gravis Marketing.

3) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of President Trump’s job performance?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q3: TRUMPPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 28.9% 14.4% 23.0% 3.8% 33.1% 15.2% 14.6% 9.6% 8.4% 12.5% 10.6%

Somewhat Disapprove 18.7% 4.6% 3.6% 13.1% 0.0% 7.9% 13.5% 9.6% 3.3% 8.1% 10.8%

Strongly Approve 4.8% 73.7% 14.6% 2.4% 0.0% 17.8% 25.2% 35.9% 53.5% 30.9% 37.1%

Strongly Disapprove 32.3% 5.7% 58.8% 72.9% 57.8% 46.9% 40.5% 40.5% 32.5% 43.2% 35.8%

Uncertain 15.3% 1.7% 0.0% 7.7% 9.1% 12.2% 6.1% 4.3% 2.3% 5.3% 5.7%

Contact: Doug Kaplan, 407-242-1870

2

4) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Senator Isakson’s job performance?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't

vote

Donald

Trump

Gary

Johnson

Hillary

Clinton

Jill

Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64

Over

65 Female Male

Q4:

ISAKSONPERFORMANCE

Somewhat Approve 13.9% 37.8% 33.3% 21.5% 3.6% 16.0% 32.2% 28.5% 28.4% 24.1% 32.6%

Somewhat

Disapprove 21.5% 7.9% 17.6% 15.9% 28.7% 27.1% 8.4% 12.8% 12.2% 14.4% 11.8%

Strongly Approve 7.1% 28.2% 27.8% 3.3% 8.4% 8.9% 11.6% 14.8% 26.2% 15.5% 15.1%

Strongly Disapprove 7.4% 4.8% 10.7% 45.4% 7.6% 17.3% 24.0% 28.0% 15.1% 22.5% 23.2%

Uncertain 50.1% 21.4% 10.6% 14.0% 51.8% 30.6% 23.8% 15.8% 18.1% 23.5% 17.3%

3

5) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Senator Perdue’s job performance?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't

vote

Donald

Trump

Gary

Johnson

Hillary

Clinton

Jill

Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64

Over

65 Female Male

Q5:

PERDUEPERFORMANCE

Somewhat Approve 28.2% 33.4% 45.5% 17.7% 0.0% 27.4% 34.7% 21.3% 20.7% 26.5% 25.7%

Somewhat

Disapprove 9.7% 9.4% 20.4% 21.0% 28.7% 13.2% 13.9% 20.1% 9.4% 13.9% 16.6%

Strongly Approve 7.4% 37.2% 9.8% 5.8% 0.0% 20.5% 11.8% 18.1% 33.5% 18.9% 20.3%

Strongly Disapprove 10.7% 7.5% 23.2% 46.4% 0.0% 19.5% 22.3% 30.4% 23.4% 22.7% 27.9%

Uncertain 44.0% 12.5% 1.1% 9.1% 71.3% 19.4% 17.3% 10.1% 13.0% 18.0% 9.6%

4

6) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Governor Deal’s job performance?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q6: DEALPERFORMANCE Somewhat Approve 30.8% 40.7% 50.6% 28.1% 25.4% 29.8% 36.2% 32.3% 39.2% 33.5% 35.8%

Somewhat Disapprove 22.1% 11.8% 10.8% 21.2% 33.8% 19.3% 13.7% 20.6% 14.1% 17.2% 16.8%

Strongly Approve 16.2% 29.9% 22.8% 7.4% 3.9% 25.5% 12.0% 16.4% 27.0% 18.7% 17.9%

Strongly Disapprove 6.7% 7.7% 15.8% 35.3% 0.0% 11.1% 27.6% 21.0% 11.0% 19.8% 19.7%

Uncertain 24.2% 9.9% 0.0% 8.0% 36.8% 14.3% 10.6% 9.6% 8.7% 10.7% 10.0%

7) If the election for Governor were held today and the candidates were Stacey Abrams and Brian Kemp, who would you vote for?

5

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q7: ABRAMSVSKEMP Democrat Stacey Abrams 22.3% 7.2% 63.0% 87.3% 63.3% 45.0% 52.2% 47.4% 34.6% 45.6% 46.5%

Republican Brian Kemp 32.0% 85.5% 37.0% 6.3% 0.0% 32.1% 33.3% 47.7% 60.2% 41.6% 46.1%

Uncertain 45.7% 7.3% 0.0% 6.4% 36.7% 22.9% 14.5% 5.0% 5.2% 12.8% 7.4%

8) If the election for Lt. Governor were held today and the candidates were Sarah Riggs Amico and Geoff Duncan, who would you vote for?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't

vote

Donald

Trump

Gary

Johnson

Hillary

Clinton

Jill

Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64

Over

65 Female Male

Q8:

AMICOVSDUNCAN

Democrat Sarah Riggs

Amico 17.9% 7.6% 53.9% 82.5% 66.9% 40.3% 50.4% 45.4% 31.2% 43.5% 43.4%

Republican Goff Duncan 22.5% 80.6% 37.6% 7.2% 8.4% 19.6% 32.2% 46.9% 59.1% 38.2% 44.8%

Uncertain 59.6% 11.8% 8.5% 10.3% 24.7% 40.1% 17.4% 7.7% 9.7% 18.2% 11.8%

6

9) If the election for Secretary of State were held today and the candidates were John Barrow and Brad Raffensperger, who would you vote for?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't

vote

Donald

Trump

Gary

Johnson

Hillary

Clinton

Jill

Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64

Over

65 Female Male

Q9:

BARROWVSRAFFENSPERGER

Democrat John Barrow 26.9% 10.6% 41.6% 81.8% 55.7% 41.8% 50.9% 46.4% 33.4% 46.7% 42.1%

Republican Brad

Raffensperger 28.9% 78.1% 52.3% 5.9% 8.4% 30.2% 31.4% 42.7% 58.3% 38.3% 43.5%

Uncertain 44.2% 11.4% 6.1% 12.3% 35.9% 28.0% 17.7% 10.9% 8.3% 14.9% 14.4%

10) If the election for the House of Representatives were held today would you vote for a Republican or a Democrat?

7

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q10: HOUSEPARTY Democrat 40.5% 5.6% 67.3% 87.6% 26.4% 56.8% 49.5% 47.3% 34.3% 50.1% 42.5%

Other 0.0% 0.3% 9.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 1.6% 0.6% 4.0%

Republican 26.0% 86.9% 23.6% 5.6% 8.4% 31.8% 35.6% 43.6% 61.1% 39.6% 47.2%

Uncertain 33.5% 7.2% 0.0% 2.9% 65.2% 11.4% 15.0% 4.0% 3.0% 9.8% 6.3%

11) Would you more or less likely support a candidate for Congress if you knew they would support Nancy Pelosi to be Speaker of the House?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q11: SUPPORTPELOSI Less Likely 37.9% 78.6% 70.2% 16.6% 42.9% 40.4% 40.6% 49.8% 58.7% 46.8% 48.3%

More Likely 8.5% 9.5% 8.2% 48.3% 0.0% 26.5% 25.2% 29.9% 20.0% 24.6% 27.8%

Uncertain 53.6% 11.8% 21.6% 35.1% 57.1% 33.1% 34.2% 20.3% 21.3% 28.6% 24.0%

8

12) Would you more or less likely support a candidate for Congress if you knew they would vote to impeach President Donald J. Trump?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q12: IMPEACHTRUMP Less Likely 25.8% 81.2% 33.4% 17.2% 33.1% 26.6% 46.8% 46.8% 57.6% 42.7% 50.6%

More Likely 32.7% 8.0% 60.2% 66.8% 17.3% 50.5% 34.8% 38.1% 32.5% 42.0% 32.4%

Uncertain 41.4% 10.8% 6.4% 16.0% 49.5% 22.9% 18.4% 15.0% 9.9% 15.3% 17.0%

13) Do you currently approve or disapprove of the Tax Reform Bill that was signed into law recently?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q13: TAXREFORM Approve 11.1% 73.1% 27.8% 15.5% 11.2% 27.8% 32.3% 47.1% 48.7% 37.6% 43.5%

Disapprove 26.7% 7.5% 35.3% 65.0% 18.8% 27.4% 36.3% 40.2% 29.4% 32.8% 37.9%

Uncertain 62.2% 19.5% 36.8% 19.6% 70.0% 44.8% 31.4% 12.7% 21.9% 29.6% 18.7%

9

14) Do you support or oppose the legalization of same-sex marriage in the United States?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q14: SAMESEXMARRIAGE Oppose 27.3% 58.3% 39.6% 21.1% 12.3% 17.3% 38.9% 37.6% 51.9% 37.4% 39.2%

Support 40.6% 21.4% 57.9% 61.3% 9.4% 63.6% 35.6% 44.2% 31.1% 42.6% 40.0%

Uncertain 32.1% 20.3% 2.5% 17.6% 78.2% 19.1% 25.5% 18.2% 17.0% 19.9% 20.8%

15) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion in Georgia?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q15: ABORTION Oppose 29.2% 37.1% 63.9% 67.4% 59.3% 47.3% 51.8% 54.8% 44.5% 54.9% 46.1%

Support 32.4% 41.3% 31.9% 20.9% 0.0% 30.8% 26.0% 32.9% 34.2% 24.5% 38.0%

Uncertain 38.3% 21.6% 4.2% 11.8% 40.7% 21.9% 22.2% 12.3% 21.3% 20.5% 15.9%

10

16) Do you support or oppose a ban on the ability to obtain an abortion after a pregnancy has lasted for 20 weeks in Georgia?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q16: ABORTION20WEEK Oppose 27.4% 41.1% 44.2% 48.4% 45.2% 39.2% 37.9% 47.5% 46.7% 45.1% 41.1%

Support 26.6% 41.9% 41.3% 23.3% 18.8% 38.3% 32.7% 31.0% 29.8% 31.1% 33.5%

Uncertain 46.0% 16.9% 14.5% 28.3% 35.9% 22.4% 29.4% 21.6% 23.5% 23.8% 25.4%

17) Do you support or oppose President Trump’s actions regarding removing the United States from the Iranian Nuclear Agreement?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q17: IRANNUCLEAR Oppose 30.4% 6.5% 80.6% 77.2% 22.5% 49.1% 40.7% 47.2% 30.4% 41.5% 42.8%

Support 15.8% 75.7% 18.1% 7.6% 0.0% 20.4% 27.0% 43.7% 56.0% 32.6% 44.1%

Uncertain 53.7% 17.8% 1.4% 15.2% 77.5% 30.5% 32.3% 9.1% 13.7% 25.9% 13.0%

11

18) As you may know there is an investigation into possible dealings with President Trump’s associates and Russia being led by Special Counsel Robert

Mueller. Do you believe the investigation is justified or do you believe it is politically motivated?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q18: RUSSIA Justified 19.3% 11.4% 64.4% 78.5% 59.3% 30.2% 49.4% 47.8% 36.6% 41.3% 46.6%

Politically motivated 37.9% 81.6% 29.8% 11.7% 33.1% 42.1% 34.2% 47.5% 59.4% 44.2% 46.0%

Uncertain 42.8% 7.0% 5.8% 9.7% 7.6% 27.7% 16.5% 4.7% 4.0% 14.5% 7.4%

19) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s job performance?

12

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't

vote

Donald

Trump

Gary

Johnson

Hillary

Clinton

Jill

Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64

Over

65 Female Male

Q19:

MUELLERPERFORMANCE

Somewhat Approve 15.4% 13.3% 13.9% 21.6% 13.0% 26.5% 21.1% 14.0% 10.2% 18.6% 15.2%

Somewhat

Disapprove 23.4% 23.4% 30.8% 8.6% 33.1% 32.8% 14.1% 16.8% 13.8% 16.6% 18.4%

Strongly Approve 11.0% 4.7% 34.2% 54.2% 9.4% 6.1% 25.2% 36.4% 30.2% 22.4% 34.0%

Strongly Disapprove 5.7% 48.0% 9.8% 5.6% 7.6% 11.1% 20.3% 25.6% 35.7% 22.6% 25.8%

Uncertain 44.4% 10.7% 11.3% 10.0% 36.8% 23.5% 19.3% 7.1% 10.2% 19.8% 6.5%

20) Do you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the Mainstream Media’s job performance?

13

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't

vote

Donald

Trump

Gary

Johnson

Hillary

Clinton

Jill

Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64

Over

65 Female Male

Q20:

MEDIAPERFORMANCE

Somewhat Approve 35.3% 4.8% 36.1% 26.6% 53.5% 42.2% 20.8% 12.5% 11.1% 14.6% 23.4%

Somewhat

Disapprove 11.6% 16.9% 6.6% 12.9% 8.4% 20.2% 15.4% 13.2% 10.6% 18.4% 9.3%

Strongly Approve 4.0% 4.0% 31.2% 43.4% 0.0% 3.2% 17.7% 31.2% 24.4% 20.9% 23.3%

Strongly Disapprove 12.4% 67.9% 23.3% 8.6% 30.6% 17.6% 33.6% 37.7% 45.4% 33.4% 37.6%

Uncertain 36.7% 6.4% 2.9% 8.4% 7.6% 16.8% 12.5% 5.5% 8.6% 12.6% 6.4%

21) Would you approve or disapprove of a border wall built between the border of Mexico and the U.S.?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q21: BORDERWALL Approve 21.5% 84.9% 34.7% 12.6% 28.4% 22.3% 39.6% 51.1% 59.9% 43.0% 48.6%

Disapprove 63.7% 9.4% 61.0% 72.8% 46.6% 67.8% 47.8% 38.9% 31.3% 45.3% 42.2%

Uncertain 14.8% 5.7% 4.2% 14.6% 25.0% 9.8% 12.6% 10.0% 8.8% 11.7% 9.2%

14

22) Do you believe that taxes are too high, too low, or just right in Georgia?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q22: GEORGIATAXES Just right 15.1% 29.1% 36.4% 27.2% 40.8% 23.1% 21.8% 29.8% 34.9% 23.1% 32.6%

Too high 66.4% 56.9% 50.7% 51.0% 42.6% 54.7% 60.9% 55.4% 44.0% 59.4% 49.2%

Too low 0.0% 5.4% 6.2% 10.3% 7.6% 1.5% 9.2% 8.2% 5.5% 5.5% 9.0%

Uncertain 18.5% 8.6% 6.7% 11.6% 9.1% 20.7% 8.1% 6.6% 15.5% 11.9% 9.2%

23) Do you believe the U.S. Senate should consider President Trump’s nominee, Brett Kavanaugh to fill the vacancy of Justice Kennedy, who is

retiring?

15

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q23: SENTATEJUSTICE No 23.6% 2.7% 45.5% 66.9% 55.7% 41.1% 40.1% 33.7% 23.4% 40.2% 28.0%

Uncertain 50.9% 10.1% 20.1% 16.8% 28.4% 25.7% 19.8% 12.6% 15.5% 19.2% 14.6%

Yes 25.5% 87.2% 34.3% 16.3% 16.0% 33.1% 40.1% 53.7% 61.1% 40.6% 57.3%

24) Are you more or less likely to support a candidate for U.S. Senate who will confirm a Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q24: KAVANAUGHCANDIDATE Less Likely 16.7% 5.3% 58.1% 60.3% 54.2% 42.9% 33.2% 33.3% 24.3% 35.7% 29.2%

More Likely 24.0% 79.4% 31.3% 11.8% 8.4% 22.7% 35.7% 46.8% 58.8% 35.9% 50.6%

Uncertain 59.3% 15.3% 10.6% 28.0% 37.4% 34.4% 31.1% 19.9% 16.9% 28.4% 20.3%

16

25) Do you think that Brett Kavanaugh is qualified to be a justice on the U.S. Supreme Court?

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q25: KAVANAUGHQUALIFIED No 14.1% 3.7% 45.0% 46.2% 18.8% 25.6% 25.9% 26.7% 18.9% 29.7% 18.9%

Uncertain 55.4% 17.4% 8.9% 29.2% 77.5% 30.9% 35.1% 21.7% 17.9% 30.7% 21.1%

Yes 30.5% 78.8% 46.1% 24.6% 3.6% 43.5% 39.0% 51.5% 63.2% 39.6% 60.0%

26) In the 2016 Presidential election whom did you vote for?

17

Q26: 2016ELECTION Age group Gender

Didn't vote Donald Trump Gary Johnson Hillary Clinton Jill Stein 18-29 30-49 50-64 Over 65 Female Male

Q26: 2016ELECTION Didn't vote 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 36.8% 9.1% 1.5% 2.0% 9.6% 7.2%

Donald Trump 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 40.9% 44.3% 60.7% 40.3% 46.4%

Gary Johnson 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 3.6% 3.9% 2.2% 5.1% 2.1%

Hillary Clinton 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 39.1% 43.3% 49.4% 34.8% 43.6% 42.8%

Jill Stein 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.8% 3.2% 0.9% 0.3% 1.5% 1.4%

The following questions are for demographic purposes:

1) Are you registered to vote in Georgia?

2) How likely are you to vote in the November 6th, 2018 Election?

18

27) What is your party affiliation?

28) What is your political ideology?

29) Are you or is a member of your immediate family from a Latino, Hispanic or Spanish speaking background?

19

30) What race do you identify yourself as?

31) Which of the following best represents your religious affiliation?

32) What is the highest level of education have you completed?

20

33) How old are you?

34) What is your gender?