geopolitics

geopoliticsHOW TO MEET THE CHALLENGES IN NEPAL

D E F E N C E n D I P L O M A C Y n S E C U R I T Y

For overall national securityIndia’s affair with nuclear power

appears long lasting

VOL II, ISSUE V, OCTOBER 2011 n ` 100

THE END OF MiG ROMANCE

AUGMENTING NAVAL POWER

THE NEED OF CREDIBLEINTELLIGENCE

THENUCLEARODYSSEY

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(4)October 2011www.geopolitics.in

COVERSTORY

(P48)

Accidents like the one at the Fukushima Daiichi plant will notdeter India from expanding itsnuclear power capability.

IInnddiiaa’’ss NNuucclleeaarrDDiilleemmmmaa

LIBYA’S MISSING WEAPONS

PANORAMA (P10)

The sophistication and vast size of Libya’s military hardware that

has been ransacked from its warehouses is giving security

experts nightmares.

DRAGON’S NEW STEED

FOCUS (P18)

China’s new aircraft carrier and plans for others put

its robust military modernisation campaign and

technological prowess on the centre stage yet again.

SPOTLIGHT (P12)

TERROR KINGPIN’S ENDDEF BIZ (P28)

READY FOR TAKEOFF INTERNAL SECURITY (P62)COUNTERING TERROR

Ilyas Kashmiri’s targeted death camenot by the Special Forces’ bullets, butwith cutting-edge drone technologydriven by hard core intelligence

Sikorsky is offering India the latesttechnology in its arsenal to meet Indian Staff Quality Requirements.

Counter-terrorism must be detachedfrom law and order and be part of adedicated ministry, law and courts. It ishigh time India got a real anti-terrorstructure in place.

(5)www.geopolitics.in October 2011

FINALTOUCHDOWN

SPECIAL REPORT (P42)

Shot down by the media as a flyingcoffin, the MiG-21 was a remarkableaircraft when it first entered servicewith the Indian Air Force.

POWER PROJECTION(P30)The Indian Navy is keen toacquire more Landing PlatformDocks as these are extremelysignificant in exerting influencein the Indian Ocean region.

COUNTER-BATTERYFIRE (P36)India’s artillery procurementprogramme seems to bestuck yet again in legalwrangles, putting at risk thefuture of the artillery unitsin the Indian Army.

ITBP RESTRUCTUREON (P58)Indo-Tibet Border Police isbeing restructured toincrease efficiency and solvethe institutional problemsemerging from its rapidexpansion.

PITFALLS OF POWERSHARING (P74)The success of the Maoists,who now head the new Govern-ment in Nepal, depends ontheir capacity and desire toshare power with other major political forces.

G E O P O L I T I C S

g EVEN AS INDIA AND GERMANY FACE

CRITICAL CHALLENGES, AN EXCITING

FUTURE AWAITS THE TWO NATIONS IF

THEY WORK TOGETHER AND CONVERT

THOSE CHALLENGES INTO

OPPORTUNITIES.

STRATEGIC PARTNERS DIPLOMACY (68)

geopoliticsHOW TO MEET THE CHALLENGES IN NEPAL

D E F E N C E � D I P L O M A C Y � S E C U R I T Y

For overall national securityIndia’s affair with nuclear power

appears long lasting

VOL II, ISSUE V, OCTOBER 2011 � ` 100

THE END OF MiG ROMANCE

AUGMENTING NAVAL POWER

THE NEED OF CREDIBLEINTELLIGENCE

THENUCLEARODYSSEY

Cover Design:Ruchi Sinha

Pho

to C

ourt

esy:

ITB

P

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Director (Corporate Affairs)RAJIV SINGH

gGEOPO L I T I C S

gLETTERS


Ifound yourarticle “TheHeadley Effect”

in the August2011 issue ofGeopolitics quitethought provok-ing! Indeed, thethreat to ournuclear installa-

tions is real and any government thatthinks otherwise is taking an avoidablerisk. The fact that there has never beenany conventional or un-conventionalattack on India’s nuclear installationsdoes not mean that it cannot happenin the future. Our government mustundertake periodic reviews of thesecurity setup keeping in mind thethreat perception at that time. No gov-ernment can afford a nuclear catastro-phe, caused whether by sabotage, ter-rorism or natural disaster.

Jamal Shaikh,Ahmedabad

As an erst-while resi-dent of Thai-

land, I find yourarticle “People ver-sus Power” (Augustissue) raisingsome pertinent is-sues concerningthat country. I

was living in Bangkok from much be-fore when Khun Thaksin Shinawatragot elected in 2001 and saw him getupstaged in a coup-de-tat in 2006.

First of all, calling the monarchy amilitary-bureaucracy nexus in Thaipolitics is highly objectionable. Themonarchy in Thailand is highlyrevered by all political parties, the mil-itary and people at large and they do

not play any role in local politics. TheKing is treated like a god by the peopleand hence the monarchy does notneed to align itself with any party orinstitution.

Having a truly functional democra-cy in that country is very difficult giventhe demography of the population andthe involvement of the military in poli-tics and bureaucracy. Just look at thenumber of Prime Ministers and thecoups they have had in the last sixdecades. Most of the political partieswere led by retired generals.

Nearly 70 per cent of the popula-tion of Thailand lives in the country-side and can easily be swayed by pop-ulist policies of any political party. Thisis exactly what was done by KhunThaksin Shinawatra, who was the rich-est man in Thailand when he enteredpolitics. He was the first elected primeminister to complete his term of fiveyears after getting elected in 2001. Hewas upstaged during his second termdue to the rampant corruption thatprevailed during his regime althoughhis party held absolute majority in theThai Parliament and was immenselypopular due to its populist policiesespecially amongst the rural country-side in the North and North-East ofThailand.

Khun Yingluck Shinawatra’s comingto power is just a repeat of the popularelection promises and policies firstpropagated by her elder brother. Shehas learned this from her brother whois now going to rule the country byproxy till all the corruption casesagainst him are dropped and he is ableto return to the country. Unfortunately,this just might lead to events of 2006being repeated. Although the role ofmilitary in Thai politics has dimin-ished over the last few years, it is stillthe most powerful institution in thecountry and always a threat to any

democratically elected government,under the guise of ensuring good gov-ernance.

To me, this is just halftime in theongoing match between Yellow-shirtsand Red-shirts. The second half couldwell be more acrimonious than thefirst half.

Rohan Tandon,Mumbai

Being a regularreader ofyour maga-

zine I have noticedthat Geopoliticsgives regular cov-erage to nuclearissues. In the pre-vious two issues,you have covered

three different dimensions on this top-ic. The terrorists eyeing nuclear instil-lations (The Headley Effect, Augustissue), Pakistan’s new nuclear missiles(New Toy in Pakistan’s Nuclear Shop,July issue) and the fissile materialtreaty (Uncertain FMCT, July issue)were very apt articles that covered theissues in a manner that the rest of themedia should emulate.

India as a nation has not beeninformed about the intricacies of thenuclear issue. It is high time theknowledge in this regard should beavailable in public domain like theleading nuclear nations of the westernhemisphere. I appreciate the effortmade by editorial team for this.

Ramanjit Singh,Amritsar

All Correspondence may be addressedto Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-13, OR mail to [email protected].

LETTERS TO EDITOR

MAY 2011 saw some extraordi-

nary events — from Presi-

dent Obama’s announce-

ment of Osama bin Laden’s

death to the murder of Pak-

istani journalist Saleem Shahzad. It could be

rightly deemed a month full of shockers and

grippers. Of specific consequence to India

was the Tahawwur Hussein Rana trial in the

Chicago court. Rana was co-accused with

David Coleman Headley for the plotting of

the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks but was

acquitted of that charge on 9 June. Besides

re-establishing the intertwining threads of

Pakistan and terrorism and questioning the

safety and security of Pakistan’s nuclear arse-

nal, the disclosures in Chicago beg a serious

reading into the security of even India’s

nuclear assets, without of course making a

brouhaha of it.

As revelations poured in from the

Tahawwur Rana trials in Chicago, the deep-

rooted links of the al-Qaeda and LeT with

Pakistan’s Army and Inter-Services Intelli-

gence (ISI) became clearer; so did the loop-

holes in the intelligence and security mecha-

nisms both within the US and India. From

www.geopolitics.in

gGEOP

O L I TI C S

gSPECIALREPORT

IN THE CROSS HAIRS: Headley told the

NIA that Major Iqbal asked him to

conduct a recce of the Bhabha Atomic

Research Centre

(20)

August 2011

Pakistani terrorist David Headley’s recent confessions that his colleagues in Pakistan could

attack India’s nuclear installations should raise alarms as to whether our nuclear facilities

are secure. Can India protect its nuclear facilities against increased threats of such covert

attacks, asks TANVI KULKARNI

THE HEADLEY

EFFECT

THE HEADLEY

EFFECT

gg{GOLDENEYE}

Jago BhaiyyaThe Sikkim earthquake woke the Directorate of PublicRelations (DPR) of Ministry of Defence (MoD) out of itsslumber. The bombardment of press releases by AirForce, Army and the Ministry created an overflow in theinboxes of not only defence journalists, but also ofMHA correspondents. The MoD has proven thatinformation is what is essential at times of nationalcrisis. But the Public Relation Office of CPOs aredeliberately understaffed and underequipped by theMHA. Both the Air Force and the Army and the DefencePR were shooting off releases by the hour and there wasdeathly silence from the Home Ministry, which hasseveral CPOs working on the ground. Moral of thestory: Be silent or operate under the radar in normaltimes (as the MoD PR) is wont to do, but for heaven’ssake wake up when there is a crisis. Arre bhai, GrihMantralaya PR is good, but jago bhaiyaa. Waqt nikla jaraha hai !

October 2011www.geopolitics.in

(8)

Government kuch kare tab na!RK Singh, the ebullient and always on the ball Grih Sachiv hashis job really cut out. With P Chidambaram literally ‘retiredhurt’ the internal security mechanism is directionless andbadly led. Singh is the man on the spot and he is one who hasto keep the morale high.

The last Home Secretary who went through a similarrough phase was probably Madhav Godbole who hadanother mercurial boss, the late Rajesh Pilot. Like BabaRamdev, Godbole had to deal with the late MahendraSingh Tikait. The feisty kisan neta parked himself at

Boat Club for over ten days and lifecompletely ground to a standstill.

It was after Tikait & Companyhad finally been cleared out, that the

government banned public rallies at theBoat Club and said that Ramlila Maidan was

the chosen place. Later, even this was modifiedto allow public demonstrations only at the border

near Burari.For the record, it was Singh who had arrested LK

Advani during the famous Rath Yatra of 1989.Now 22years, later he will confront another Rath Yatra, thistime being flagged off by a Chief Minister who was atthe time in the forefront in applauding Advani’s arrest.You now have 24-hour news channels, Twitter,Facebook and the world is watching you. At the timewhat Advani did as he was detained in a PSU guest

house made it through the front pages next day. Thistime, every little event will have a life feed. The timesare different and the heartaches and headaches forRK Singh are different.

www.geopolitics.in

{GOLDENEYE}

Getting nowhere!Last month two Central Police Organisations (CPOs),Indo-Tibet Border Police and Shashtra Seema Bal, gotnew DGs (Director-Generals) and the Border SecurityForce BSF will get a new Chief in the coming month. Thereshuffle is going to mean a new direction for the CPOs.That’s the usual practice. Each DG comes with his ownworld view, his own view finder, his own foibles and pho-bias and his own to-do list. For the rest of the team, thatwould mean literally starting from ground zero.

Now, with Home Minister P Chidambaram underimmense pressure, there is a literal sense of drift in thecorridors of North Block. The forces are worried that theincoming DG, who usually decides the way forward, canlead them nowhere if Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) isin disarray. One of the officers at HQ observed, “One DGwill say we will go to Bombay, and his successor will sayin middle of the way let’s go to Kolkata and in the end wereach nowhere. The more you change things, the morethey remain same.”

Will they ever get a chance?Every year when DGs of CPOs retire, senior officers ofthe cadre have only one question to ask: Will we ever getto lead the force? The rule book says only Indian PoliceService officers can lead the CPOs. The eternal debate onthe merit of IPS officers leading these CPOs that requirespecialised training and experience begins once more.To placate senior cadre officers, the post of special DGand additional DGs have been created, but the tenure atthese posts is short and with no power. The trend ofcadre officers opting for the voluntary retirementscheme (VRS) has also become endemic. Recently, oneInspector General in a CPO took VRS to end his everydayfrustration of working under a senior with no compara-ble knowledge and experience. The frustration is gettingthe better of subordinate officers and jawans, who wantto leave the job bang after the mandatory 20 years ofservice. But the IPS, which is constantly at logger headswith the IAS, has no sympathy for these cadres. What thebabus do to us, we do so down below to others!

gg

(9)October 2011

Doorbin lagake dekho jiCops in Delhi are now wary of every lamppost andevery pillar. They can sense a camera around eachone of them. After the High Court blasts, it seemsthat the entire country has woken up to the advan-tages of CCTVs and cameras and literally everyhigh-value building across the country is going allout to acquire their own version of these snoopingeyes. Not just that. Municipalities and civic bodiestoo want to be another London and make sure thatyour footprints are captured at least a 100 timesbetween morning to evening as you go to work,shop or socialise. The only ones who seem to bemiserable are the poor havildars and the sub-inspectors. Now every time someone tries to greasetheir palms, they have to make sure there is no eyein the sky. As one of them said: “Har khambe peAnna hai.”

ggPANORAMA

www.geopolitics.in

The victory of the National Transi-tional Council (NTC) over theforces of Muammar Gaddafi hasbrought in new hope for the peo-

ple of Libya. Across the Mediterranean,in capitals around Europe though, thereis considerable anxiety over new threatsemerging from the troubled nation aris-ing from the thousands of weapons thathave gone missing from the hundreds ofcaches across the country.

As Gaddafi’s forces retreated, they leftbehind unguarded caches with hundredsof rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs),mortar shells, thousands of assault rifles

October 2011


A large number of sophisticated weapons missing from MuammarGaddafi’s huge weapons depots could lead to widespread insecurity

across airways over Europe and Africa’s volatile northern region

DEADLY WEAPONRYUP FOR GRABS

DEADLY WEAPONRY UP FOR GRABS

Anti-tankmines

Assault Rifles

Man-Portable Air-Defence Systems

LETHAL WEAPONS (Figures indicate numbers with theLibyan army before the Civil War)

ANTI-TANK MISSILESMILAN: 400 (Country of origin:

France/Germany)AT-3, AT-4, and AT-5: 620+

(Country of origin: Russia)ANTI-AIRCRAFT MISSILES

SA-2, SA-3, SA-5, 9K34, 9K38:25,000+

(Country of origin: Russia) SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES FROG-7 and SCUD-B: 416 missiles(Country of origin: Russia)

(No reliable figures exist about how many weapons have gonemissing)

and millions of rounds of ammunition.The rebels helped themselves to theweapons in their war against the dictator,but the fear is that a large number ofsome of the more advanced armamentsare now unaccounted for. Among theweaponry that has vanished without atrace are hundreds of anti-aircraft andanti-tank missiles.

Across the ransacked warehouses,

dozens of long skinny boxes for missileshave been found — all of them now emp-ty. Codes on the boxes and packing slipsinside indicate some were Russian-madeanti-tank missiles, others held shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles to bring downairplanes, helicopters or drones. The mostfearsome of the lot are the latest genera-tion of anti-aircraft missiles — especially sophisticated shoulde-launched

Man-Portable Air-Defence Systems,known as MANPADS, which can bringdown civilian airliners. The missiles,mostly SA-7b Grails, as NATO refers tothem, have been spotted in Libya beforeand are well known to have been sold tothe government of Muammar Gaddafi.American officials estimate the Gaddafiregime hoarded as many as 25,000 suchweapons in recent years.

Many of the systems were reportedlyolder Russian SA-7 shouldered-fired unitsthat date back to the 1970s, and somecould be too old to operate. But armsexperts have seen evidence that theLibyan regime had also amassed newerRussian SA-24 models that are typicallymounted on vehicles and have a longerrange in targeting aircraft.

According to a US State Departmentofficial, several private weapons disposalcontractors are working with Libyan offi-cials to hunt for sensitive mobile anti-air-craft systems. But the internationalweapons disposal teams have only beenable to locate and destroy a small numberof MANPADS, land mines and othermunitions in Libya.

And it’s not just missing conventionalweapons that are unaccounted for.Libyan rebel forces claim to have discov-ered banned chemical weapons stock-piles in southern desert areas capturedfrom Gaddafi loyalists. In the city of Sabha, rows upon rows of drums, somemarked radioactive, which the Interna-tional Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed is yellowcake have beenfound. Refined to high levels of purity,yellowcake is the essential element of anuclear bomb.

For Libya, the greater danger is fromexplosives and weapons that could beused by insurgents. Mortars and tankshells could be used to make roadside orcar bombs by anyone wishing to fightLibya’s new government. After the Ameri-can invasion of Iraq in 2003, arms depotsacross the country were plundered andsome of the munitions were used indeadly attacks and bombings targeted atAmerican troops and Iraqi civilians dur-ing the Iraqi insurgency.

Since Gaddafi’s exit, American and UNofficials have warned that the failure tocontrol Libya’s weapons could destabilisethe whole of North Africa. The sophistica-tion and vast size of Libya’s military hard-ware — and the fact that it was widelydistributed during the NATO airstrikes —complicates the effort to trace it.

gPANORAMA

g

(11)October 2011

C-4 explosive

Thousands of cratesof ammunition

Rocket-PropelledGrenades

Mortars

Research

ed by Ju

stin C

Mu

rik

gGEOPO L I T I C S

gSPOTLIGHT

“For God and country — Geronimo!Geronimo! Geronimo!”

THIS IS how the tense, apex-lev-el audience led by the Presidentof the United States, BarackObama, first heard the desper-ately awaited news at about

1.00 am, Pakistan Standard Time on May2, 2011. America’s most sought-after ene-my, Osama bin Laden (OBL) lay dead onhis bedroom floor in his tan colouredshalwar kameez. This terse announce-ment was made (doubtless with an eye onhistory) by the US Navy’s Sea, Air and

www.geopolitics.in October 2011

(12)

TERROR KINGPIN: IlyasKashmiri (left), ex-HuJIChief and a key contenderfor donning the al Qaedamantle after the death ofOsama bin Laden (right)

llyas Kashmiri’s death was orchestrated bythe Americans with a deadly combination of

intelligence, cutting-edge technology andarm-twisting of the ISI, writes RAJ MEHTA

DID AMERICA “GERONIMO” ILYAS

KASHMIRI?

gSPOTLIGHT

gLand (SEAL) team’s marine who hadpumped two 5.56 laser-guided bullets —one through the chest; the other throughthe left eye of the perpetrator of 9/11 andthe head of al Qaeda... After a pause, theSEAL confirmed the death sentence:“Geronimo E.K.I.A.” — “Enemy Killed InAction.” Crankshaft (the FBI codenamefor OBL) was dead.

Geronimo is the name of an iconic19th century Mescalero-ChiricahuaApache Indian Chieftain known for carry-ing out raids against Mexicans and Amer-icans invading his tribal territories. Thename, in translation, means “One whoyawns”. Though America has come in fordomestic flak for using Geronimo as acodeword for announcing the death ofOBL, the fact remains that, in many ways,the legend remains intact.

The follow-up death of a claimant toOsama’s legacy, Ilyas Kashmiri, is beingattributed to the chain of events thatcommenced with Osama’s death. Thebelief in intelligence circles is that theUnited States did a “Geronimo” on thestreet-smart, canny and dangerous IlyasKashmiri; not by using Special Forces, butby cutting-edge drone technology drivenby hard-core intelligence.

Ilyas Kashmiri’s “signature” death bydrone attack was engineered by the US

using a lethal cocktail of intelligence,cutting-edge technology and arm-twist-ing of the ISI by the CIA. Naturally, therewill be fallouts of his death on the keyplayers in the South Asian region, espe-cially the rapidly deteriorating relationsbetween Pakistan and the USA, post theGeronimo watershed of May 2, 2011. Thelast, chilling indication of a relationshipfalling apart is the public US assertion onSeptember 18 that the September 12,2011 attack on its Kabul embassy by theHaqqani affiliated-with-Taliban factionwas underwritten by the ISI; a chargethat has left Pakistan red-faced withincoherent denials.

ILYAS KASHMIRI AND HIS GROWTH ASA TERRORIST LEADERIlyas hailed from Mirpur, in Pakistanoccupied Kashmir (PoK). He joined theelite Pakistani Special Service Group(SSG), taking part in the Soviet-AfghanWar during which he lost an eye andindex finger. During the mid-1990s,Kashmiri was captured near Poonch bythe Indian Army and jailed for two yearsbefore escaping. Kashmiri was involvedin several trans-border operations in thePoonch area in India. On February 26,2000, he is reported to have decapitatedan Indian soldier and was reportedlyawarded `1,00,000 by the then ArmyChief, General Pervez Musharraf, for thisgory feat. But, his honeymoon with thePakistan Army did not last long. After thecreation of Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM),the then ISI Chief wanted Ilyas to joinand accept Maulana Masood Azhar ashis leader, which Ilyas refused to do.

The militants of JeM thereafter attackedKashmiri in Kotli but he survived. Hisoutfit was banned by Musharraf after9/11. He was arrested after an attack onthe life of Pervez Musharraf in December2003 and tortured. The United JihadCouncil led by Syed Salahuddin stronglyprotested, thus paving the way for hisrelease in February 2004. Ilyas thereafterfloated his own outfit, 313 Brigade,named after the 313 companions whofought with Prophet Mohammed duringthe Battle of Badr. Brigade 313 is al Qae-da’s military organisation in Pakistan,and is made up of Taliban and alliedjihadist groups. It has carried out high-profile attacks and bombings inside

(13)www.geopolitics.in

Pakistan, including multiple assassina-tion attempts on former President Per-vez Musharraf and Prime Minister Gilaniand attacks on Pakistan’s military andintelligence services, including on ArmyGHQ in Rawalpindi in December 2009.Ilyas attracted many former PakistanArmy officers into his Brigade. One wasex-SSG Major Haroon Ashique, whoworked with Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) com-mander, Zaki ur-Rahman Lakhvi; theman who masterminded the 2008 Mum-bai attack.

GLOBAL TERRORISTOn August 6, 2010, the United Stateslabelled Kashmiri a “Specially Designat-ed Global Terrorist” under ExecutiveOrder 13224, while the United Nationsadded him and his group HuJI to itsblacklist established under UN SecurityCouncil Resolution 1267. In January2010, a US federal grand jury indictedKashmiri for plotting to attack the Jyl-lands-Posten newspaper in Denmark forpublishing cartoons of the ProphetMohammed.

THE SALEEM SHAHZAD CONNECTIONIn a startling, extremely well-document-ed, cohesive and researched article forthe New Yorker published on September13, 2011, (The Journalist and the Spies:The murder of a reporter who exposedPakistan’s secrets) Pulitzer Prize award-winning journalist Dexter Filkins reportsthat the body of Saleem Shahzad, a Pak-istani journalist known for his exposes onthe Pakistani military; especially his latest

one on the terrorist attack on MehranNaval Base, Karachi, was found on May30, 2011, along the Upper Jhelum Canal.He had been presumably tortured by Pak-istani ISI.

On May 22, 2011, the terrorist organ-isation Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistanclaimed that it had attacked the Mehranbase. It had destroyed a helicopter andtwo out of Pakistan Navy’s four P-3C Orion aircraft equipped withHawkeye 2000 AEW systems formingthe core of Pakistan’s early warning sys-tem. Filkins said in his article thatShahzad, a Mujahir, wrote a sensationalstory for Asia Times Online, the Thai-land-based website that employed him,saying that the attack on the Mehranbase had been carried out by al Qaeda.

He said that theMehran assaulthad beenintended topunish the mili-

tary for havingconducted “mas-sive internalcrackdowns on al

Qaeda affiliateswithin the Navy”.

He furthersaid that it

was an inside job and that the militaryhad links with the al Qaeda.

The Mehran article was Shahzad’sbiggest provocation to expose the mili-tary and its insidious terrorist connec-tions and led directly to his death.Filkins has said “...Reliable intelligenceindicates that the order to kill Shahzadcame from a senior officer on GeneralKiyani’s staff. The officer made it clearthat he was speaking on behalf of Kiyanihimself.” Noting that Kashmiri was killedfour days after Shahzad’s body wasfound, the article suggests that Pak intel-ligence agencies tortured the journalist to get information on the whereabouts of the terrorist, which waspassed on to the US, presumably to onceagain get on their right side after the OBLfiasco. Some of the intelligence providedcould have been gleaned from the jour-nalist’s cell phone, which had recorded258 calls exchanged with Ilyas Kashmiri.

DEATH OF ILYAS KASHMIRIExecuting a brilliantly orchestrated andexecuted intelligence plan fuelled byintelligence inputs accessed from OBL’smansion; Shahzad’s torture by the ISIand his cell phone records; a “signature”US Predator drone attack on June 3,2011, targeted a compound in theGhwakhwa area of South Waziristan.Nine militants, including Ilyas Kashmiriwere reportedly killed. The drone firedfour missiles in ripples of two. A lethalcombination of cutting-edge face-recog-nition technology, local intelligence bymoles and an extraordinary tie-up

gSPOTLIGHT

g

THE PREDATOR MQ-9 DRONE: A STEALTHY AERIALHUNTER-KILLER PLATFORM

October 2011


THE GENERAL Atomics MQ-9 (thealphabet M stands for Multipurpose)Reaper, originally called the Predator B,is an American cutting-edge drone or

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), capa-ble of remote-controlled or autonomousflight operations. The MQ-9 is the firsthunter-killer drone designed for long

endurance, high-altitude surveillance,having graduated from intelligence, sur-veillance, and reconnaissance roles to atrue hunter-killer role. General Atomicsbegan development of the Reaper withthe “Predator B-001”, a proof-of-conceptaircraft, which first flew on February 2,2001. Today, the aircraft has an 84-foot(25.6 m) wingspan and a takeoff weightof about 7,000 pounds (3,175 kg). Thisvariant has a payload capacity of 1,360kg, a maximum ceiling of 52,000 feet(15.8 km), and an endurance of 36 hours.

Operators, stationed at bases inmainland USA can hunt for targets and

MARTYR FOR THE TRUTH:Key information about Kashmiri isthought to have been garnered from thephone of slain journalist Saleem Shahzad(below)

between the US Joint Special OperationsCentre ( JSOC), US Army in Af-Pak, CIAand ISI leaks appears to have engineeredthe killings. Equally important was theapex US planners’ decision to keep Pak-istani intelligence out-of-the-loop being“untrustworthy even for a nano second”.Qari Muhammad Idrees, a close aide ofKashmiri and HuJI spokesman Abu Han-zla Kashir told Dawn that Kashmiri,along with other companions, was mar-tyred in an American drone strike onJune 3, 2011, at 11:15 PM.

FALLOUTS OF THE DEATH OF ILYASKASHMIRI ON REGIONAL PLAYERSON USA/ISAF

USA has realised that the counter-ter-rorism campaign, favoured by Vice Pres-ident Joe Biden has grossly outper-formed the troop-intensive counter-insurgency campaign favoured by ex-Defence Secretary Robert Gates andGen Petraeus, now Director CIA. Byimplication, as US/IRAF forces winddown, more killings will be done usinghi-tech drone attacks rather than bybrute physical force, resulting in lesserbody-bags; a most welcome develop-ment. This development also indicatesthe military “coming of age” of PresidentBarack Obama and bodes well for his2012 Presidential re-election chances.

In 2009, US intelligence officials identi-fied 30 top al Qaeda leaders in the Af-Pak region. Fifteen were taken out in2010 and five this year. This has savage-ly set the al Qaeda and Taliban back

and can possibly lead the Taliban tonegotiate withdrawal on termsfavourable to the US/IRAF combine.

The US relationship with Pakistan is inneed for re-alignment after the OBLfiasco and the attack on the USembassy in Kabul. The Kashmirikilling, though significant, has clearlynot done enough to trigger a strategicrealignment. This does not bode wellfor Pakistan but provides grounds forUSA and India to redefine andstrengthen the Indo-US strategic rela-tionship especially in Afghanistan.

PAKISTANPervez Hoodbhoy, the much-quotedPakistani analyst, has written that,after the Osama/Kashmiri killing, thePakistani military displays “diminishedmoral power and authority andabsence of charismatic leadership”. The US suspects that the ISI is behindthe September 12, 2011 attack on itsembassy in Kabul, Ryan Crocker, theUS Ambassador to Afghanistan andCameron Munter, the US Ambassadorto Pakistan, have, dispensing withdiplomatic niceties, accused the ISI onSeptember 17, 2011 that it is support-ing the Haqqani faction, which hasclaimed responsibility Bruce Riedel, the former CIA officer,feels that helping the CIA kill Kashmirimakes sense as Kashmiri had becomean enemy of the Pakistani state andtaking him out had becomeinescapable.

With the components of severalnuclear warheads reportedly locatednear the Mehran Naval Base, an attackKashmiri had orchestrated, the impli-cation is clear: Pakistan’s nuclear arse-nal is not safe. This is one of thedeductions that Shahzad had drawnafter the Mehran attack — a conclu-sion that has the world and certainlyIndia worried.

INDIAThe brilliant synergy in US commandstructure, inter-agency coordination,intelligence acquisition, collation,assessment, prescient contingencyplanning and clinically efficient end-utilisation processes by the SEALS issomething that India must urgentlylearn from. It must also look at quickacquisition of cutting-edge technologyfor conducting successful anti-terroroperations.The fact is that the death of Kashmiri,who was India-centric, has broughtabout a sharp decline in cross-borderterrorism in J&K. This is a refreshingdevelopment favouring the return ofnormalcy in J&K. It is also one majorcontributor to the fact that the Army’sefforts to accelerate normalcy usingthe “Heart is my Weapon” theme inKashmir spearheaded by General AtaHasnain, the Corps Commander, isgetting a very favourable response, notjust in J&K but, increasingly, in Pak-istan as well.

(The author is a retired Major General)

gSPOTLIGHT

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www.geopolitics.in

(15)October 2011

observe terrain using a number of sen-sors, including a thermal camera thatcan read a license plate from three kilo-meters away. An operator’s commandtakes 1.2 seconds to reach the drone viasatellite link. The MQ-9 is fitted with sixmunitions or fuel-carrying pylons. Itcarries a variety of weapons includingthe GBU-12 Pave way II laser-guidedbomb, the AGM-114 Hellfire II air-to-ground missiles, the AIM-9 Sidewinderand recently, the GBU-38 JDAM (JointDirect Attack Munition). On October28, 2007, the Air Force Times reportedan MQ-9 had achieved its first “kill”, fir-ing a Hellfire missile againstAfghanistani insurgents in the DehRawood region of the mountainousOruzgan province.

The typical MQ-9 system consists ofmultiple aircraft, ground control sta-tion, KU and C Band communicationsequipment and links, maintenancespares, and military (or contractor)personnel. The crew consists of a pilotand sensor operator. To meet combatrequirements, the MQ-9 tailors itscapabilities using mission kits of vari-ous combinations of weapons and sen-sors payloads. The Raytheon AN/AAS-52 Multi-spectral Targeting Sensor(MTS) suite includes a color/mono-chrome daylight TV, infrared, and animage-intensified TV with laserrangefinder/target designator to desig-nate targets for laser guided muni-tions. It is also believed to carry face-recognition capability; thus becoming

capable of carrying out “signature” orspecific aerial killings. The target is litup by laser or infra-red beams and allvariables fed to create an accurate “fir-ing” solution. This is followed by firingan array of munitions; the most lethalbeing the Hellfire missile, which haslaser/infra-red sensors. The SyntheticAperture Radar system enables GBU-38 JDAM targeting and is capable ofvery fine resolution and has groundmoving target indicator capability.

As of July 2010, 38 Predators andReapers had been lost during combatoperations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Asof March, 2011, the U.S. Air Force had48 Predator and Reaper combat airpatrols flying in Iraq and Afghanistancompared with 18 in 2007.

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O N L O O K E Rgg


PAKISTAN HAS hosted China’s topsecurity official (Public Security

Minister Meng Jianzhu) and stagedwar games with Saudi Arabia in thesecond half of September,strengthening ties with two re-gional players as its relationshipwith the United States plummetsover allegations that Islamabadsupports insurgents in Afghanistan.

Pakistan’s Interior MinisterRehman Malik brushed aside

questions on the timing of thevisit. “Let’s not talk USA

here. I am here with myfriend China,” Malik toldreporters. “China is al-ways there for us inthe most difficult mo-ments.” His remarksecho an often-heardline here about Bei-jing’s attitude to-ward Islamabad,one that stands incontrast with what

officials perceive as afickle relationship withWashington.

Prior to his meetings

in Pakistan, Meng said he woulddiscuss ways to “contribute to na-tional security and regional stabil-ity” with Pakistani leaders.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabiastepped in to defuse the risingtension between Pakistan and theUnited States and in this connec-tion, Inter-Services Intelligence(ISI) chief Lt General AhmadShuja Pasha held crucial talks withsenior Saudi intelligence officials.Some media reports also sug-gested that the ISI chief dashedto Saudi Arabia after meeting theSaudi intelligence officials atChaklala Airbase, but a Pakistanisecurity official denied that Gen-eral Pasha had gone to Saudi Ara-bia. He did say, however, thatSaudi Arabia had stepped in todefuse the mounting tension be-tween Pakistan and the US asRiyadh felt that any confrontationbetween Islamabad and Washing-ton would have disastrous conse-quences for the peace andstability of the whole region.

THE CHINA-PAK-SAUDI AXIS

Meng Jianzhu and Rehman Malik

FORMER USSR President Mikhail Gor-bachev believes Russia risks ‘wasting’ sixyears if PM Vladimir Putin returns to thepresidency in March as expected. In his firstreaction to the news that Mr Putin wouldrun for office in 2012, Mr Gorbachev saidRussia was at an “impasse” and that hedoubted Mr Putin could bring change.

Putin told a ruling United Russia partycongress recently that he would standagain. Current President Dmitry Medvedevmay replace him as PM. Putin served twoterms as President before Mr Medvedevtook over in 2008. He was barred by theConstitution from running for a third con-secutive term.

Gorbachev hoped that Putin’s decisionwould provide an incentive for the leader-ship to get Russia out of the “impasse” itwas in, but that was unlikely as it was hewho had created the current situation.” Wecan assume that there will be no movementforward if there are no serious changesalong the lines of a replacement of the en-tire system,” he wrote in the opposition

Novaya Gazeta newspaper, which he partlyowns.

“Without this we could lose six years. Ithink that the future President needs tothink about this very seriously.”

Mr Putin’s decision means that he couldin theory remain in office until 2024,prompting Novaya Gazeta to publishartists’ impressions of how he, MrMedvedev and othersenior politiciansmight look in thatyear. It portrayedthem dressed inmedal-festoonedsuits, recalling theelderly Soviet leader-ship whichclung onto powerin thee a r l y1980s.

PUTIN ‘WILL NOT ENDRUSSIA IMPASSE’

Vladimir Putin Mikhail Gorbachev

ggO N L O O K E R

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(17)October 2011

CHAIRMAN OF the Joint Chiefs of StaffAdmiral Mike Mullen reflected on histenure at the Carnegie Foundation —which has included the troop surge inIraq, an overhaul of strategy inAfghanistan, the killing of Osama binLaden in May, and the end of the ‘Don’tAsk, Don’t Tell’ policy — just days beforethe end of his term.

Afghanistan: Need to place moreresources into Afghanistan, which hereferred to as “the epicentre of terrorism”.He recalled the killing of Osama binLaden as the single-best-day of histenure.

Regional Focus: The United Statesmust continue to focus on Afghanistan toprevent it from deteriorating into a failedstate, Mullen said, but a regional focus isalso equally important. Events in Iran,Pakistan, India, China, and other neigh-bouring states cannot be separated fromthe US strategy in Afghanistan.

Pakistan: The US relationship withPakistan is critical, Mullen said, notingthat it is important for the Inter-ServicesIntelligence (ISI) to disconnect from theHaqqani network and what he describedas “the proxy war that they’re fighting”.Solving the complicated issue of Kashmirwould also unlock many issues betweenIndia and Pakistan, he added.

Assassination of former AfghanPresident Rabbani: Mullen argued thatit was still too soon to predict whatimpact the assassination of formerAfghan President Burhanuddin Rab-bani would have on Afghanistan.However, he pointed out that Afghanand international leaders needed toact to ensure that this loss did notprove destabilising.

Cyber Warfare: Mullen called cyberwarfare a significant threat due to the

absence of boundaries and rules govern-ing this realm. A structure may be neededto limit its danger in the near future, headded.

Iran: Chairman Mullen also pointedout that the United States had not talkedto Iran since 1979, adding that even at theheight of the Cold War, the United Statesmaintained links to the Soviet Union. Thislack of communication, he warned,makes it “virtually assured” that therewould be miscalculations in the region.Because Iran is pursuing a nuclear pro-gramme, a lack of communication is evenmore problematic, he argued. He suggest-

ed that it would bein the Americannational inter-est to resumecontact with

Tehran ateither a politi-

cal, diplomat-ic, or military-

t o - m i l i t a r ylevel.

THE RECENT Arab League plan for Syriawas, perhaps, the best bet for Bashar AlAssad. But he has spurned it. Reports arethat the League’s new secretary general,Nabil al-Arabi, who brought the initiativewith him to Damascus in early Septem-ber, was bluntly told it was not good.

The Syrians apparently believed thatthe deal had been “approved” by theUnited States and blueprinted by Qatar’sEmir Hamad Bin Khalifah Al Thani, oncea close friend of Damascus. It was reject-ed because of these connections, butmany believe it was a deal that was a “winwin” for everyone.

It could have been a lifejacket for thenation that would end the deadlockbetween the government and demonstra-tions, which have continued non-stop,despite violence and the rising death toll,since mid-March. By snubbing it, the Syri-ans probably have lost a golden opportu-nity. Asia Times Online in a report on thedeal said: “What they should have done istake it as it stands, then rebrand it as a Syr-ian initiative — regardless of the ArabLeague and Qatar — because it is a win-win formula both for the Syrian govern-ment and for the Syrian street. To quote theGodfather, it was an offer they shouldn’thave, rather than “couldn’t have refused”.The initiative had a few main points:

“An immediate halt” to all violenceagainst civilians, and ending all mili-tary operations in Syrian cities. Compensation for the families of thosewho suffered from violence, arrest andpersecution since mid-March and for ageneral amnesty setting all politicalprisoners free, along with those whotook part in anti-regime demonstra-tions over the past six months. The Syrian army would need to with-draw itself from “civil and political life”. “Declaration of principles” by the Pres-ident, outlining the reforms hepledged in all three speeches sinceMarch.

MULLEN’S MUSINGS AN OFFER SYRIASHOULDN’T

HAVE REFUSED

IF LIANG WENGEN, 55, ischosen by the party’s 2012Congress, he will be the first

entrepreneur to join the body,which in effect rules the

c o u n t r y .T h i swould bea hugelysymbol-ic shiftin the

party’s view ofbusiness.

Construction magnate

Mr Liang topped both the Forbesand Hurun rich lists with a wealth ofmore than $9 billion. Media reportssaid he had completed a vettingprocedure for the 300-strong bodyand was on track for approval by theCongress in October next year.

China’s wealthy are increasinglybeing courted by the party, whichonly started allowing businessmeninto its ranks a decade ago. MrLiang’s company Sany, which manu-factures cranes and excavators, hasbenefited in recent years from Chi-na’s building boom.

Mike Mullen

Liang Wengen

CHINA’S RICHEST TO JOIN CENTRAL COMMITTEE

Bashar Al Assad


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China’s first-ever aircraftcarrier indicates its futureintent and technological

prowess, writes MONIKA CHANSORIA

WHEN THE Varyag aircraftcarrier of Ukrainian ori-gin rolled out of China’snorth-eastern Dalianport in August 2011, the

debate surrounding China’s growing mili-tary might in the backdrop of its robustmilitary modernisation campaign wascentrestage yet again. In a very carefullydrafted statement to announce the arrivalof China’s first aircraft carrier, ChineseDefence Ministry stated that the brief ini-tial sea trial conducted by the People’sLiberation Army (PLA) Navy was ‘success-ful’ with the carrier returning to the portfollowing completion of the trial.

Beijing appears to have made a con-scious attempt to project the aircraft car-rier as a means to accomplish “scientificresearch, experiment and training,” asstated by the Chinese Defence Ministryspokesman, Geng Yansheng. It wouldonly be pertinent to state here that theabove-mentioned Chinese contentionstands challenged by virtue of a columnthat appeared on a PLAN (PLA Navy)website, where the need to build an air-craft carrier was justified thus: “The rea-son why we built a carrier is to safeguardChina’s maritime rights and interestsmore efficiently…Be more confident andhave more determination to defend ourterritorial integrity after we have

carriers.” Notably, the statement citesthat China’s territorial integrity shall bedefended with “carriers”— bringing to thefore that apart from this lone Varyag car-rier, two other Chinese-designed aircraftcarriers presently under construction at

shipyards in Shanghai need to bewatched out for. General Luo Yuan, atChina’s Academy of Military Sciences,argues for ‘at least three aircraft carriersin service by 2014’ to match plans byregional rivals including India and Japan.

THE DRAGON'S LEVIATHAN: Its newcarrier has highlighted China’s objective ofpursuing a naval air capability and simult-aneously beefing up its blue-water fleet

THE

DRAGON’SSEA-WARD GLARE

October 2011

gFOCUS

gAircraft carriers and battle groups

remain a critical prerequisite to aid inexpeditionary operations or amphibiousassaults on land via the sea. The primaryrole revolves around conduct of air oper-ations against land targets followed by lit-toral manoeuvres using helicopter sup-port in aid of amphibious or other airoperations. In order to meet success ineither of the scenarios, optimised accesswithin the littoral environment is essen-tial. This can be achieved by securing thesea lines of communication between sup-port vessels and the battle area/theatre ofoperation at all given times. Moreover, inthe plausible setting of less of boots onthe ground, a higher degree of commandand control always finds priority.

It was widely speculated that China’sVaryag aircraft carrier might be unveiledaround the same time as the 90thanniversary of the founding of the Chi-nese Communist Party — in July 2011.Nevertheless, this feat could not beachieved since the carrier’s auxiliarypropulsion unit was not ready at thatpoint in time. The Varyag carrier has cer-tainly highlighted a primary Chineseobjective of pursuing a naval air capabili-

ty and simultaneously beefing up itsblue-water fleet. China acquired the Sovi-et-era platform from Ukraine in 1998without the engines, rudder, and much ofthe operating systems and began refittingof the vessel in 2002. PLA’s Chief of theGeneral Staff, Chen Bingde, confirmedthat China’s first carrier ‘is under con-struction’ in an interview to the HongKong Commercial Daily. It is noteworthythat the official statement regarding theVaryag carrier came in June 2011— justtwo months before its maiden voyage.

Principally a weapon platform facili-tator, the present version of the Varyag

carrier boasts of engines, generators,defence systems, including the Type 1030close-in weapon system and a close-inair defence system; the FL-3000N missilesystem was reportedly added to the ves-sel at Dalian. Besides, the carrier pro-vides mobile air strips, quick turn-around capability and revival forenhanced aircraft reach. As designed, itcould be armed with anti-aircraft guns,surface-to-surface missiles, surface-to-air missiles (vertical-launch systems),anti-submarine warfare rocket-launch-ers, fixed-wing aircraft (Shenyang J-15)and 24 helicopters, and a four-phasearray radar that can detect sea-skimmingenemy aircraft. While it has been arguedthat a lone Varyag carrier might just notbe apposite for combat purposes, itremains amply clear that it certainly shallprovide a platform for China to train per-sonnel for future aircraft carrier opera-tions including tasks such as operatingand defending a carrier.

Expectedly a question which follows is,whether the PLAN is accustomed to tech-nology insofar as wielding sophisticatedsystems is concerned. As Beijing’s 2011military budget grows by nearly 13 percent to $ 91.7 billion, the PLA’s active pro-motion of transition in military traininghas been underscored in the latest official2010 White Paper on National Defence.The PLA has intensified joint training oftask formations in complex electromag-netic environments resulting in a transi-tion from training in conditions of mech-anisation to training in conditions of‘informationisation’. For this, the PLA isintensifying training in operating com-mand information systems and ‘informa-tionised’ weaponry and equipment toaccomplish its missions in maintainingmaritime, space and electromagneticspace security.

The Varyag carrier will prove instru-mental in carrying forward the new “his-toric missions” for the Chinese armedforces, as put forth by President Hu Jintaowhen he took over as Chairman of theCentral Military Commission (CMC) inDecember 2004. At a plenary meeting ofthe PLA delegation to the ongoing annualsession of the 10th National People’s Con-gress (NPC), Hu asserted: “The militaryshould correctly understand the situationand resolutely perform the military’s his-torical mission in the new century andthe new development stage.” Hu furtherdeclared: “We shall step up preparationsfor possible military struggle and

THERE ISMOUNTING

UNEASE ABOUTCHINA'S RAPIDLY

EXPANDINGMILITARY REACHAND PROWESS


enhance our capabilities to cope withcrises, safeguard peace, prevent wars andwin the wars, if any.” It needs to be clari-fied here that these missions manifest inthe form of greater scientific develop-ment within the military and possessionof the first aircraft carrier is definitely akey step in the said direction.

Furthermore, by proving to be a futureindicator towards a two-pronged Chi-nese strategy, the Varyag carrier will beinfluential in securing the energy hubroutes. Nearly 80 per cent of China’strade is carried through ships, given thatChina is a net importer of oil and gasmostly coming in from West Asia andAfrica. Securing sea lanes of communica-tion, stretching from the Straits of Hor-muz through till the Straits of Malacca,remains a key objective for the PLAN.From an Indian standpoint, the deep-seaport at Makran Coast (Gwadar) in Pak-istan is a case in sight. Further, via theterritory of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir(PoK), up to Xinjiang, the energy flowsees a significant cut in freight costs aswell as supply time. Additionally, NewDelhi is keenly observing Chineseinvolvement as it financed 85 per cent ofthe $1.5 billion deep-water seaport and bunkering facility in the recently

completed Phase I of Hambantota in Sri Lanka. Located 10 nautical milesfrom one of the world’s busiest shippinglanes, the Hambantota port will beinstrumental for China in providinggreater access to the sea-lanes passingthrough the northern Indian Ocean andStraits of Malacca.

The second driver of the twin-prongedstrategy entails augmenting power pro-jection in the region given China’s mar-itime disputes in east and Southeast Asia.Once it has power projection capabilitiesin place, there could be an added degreeof credence to Beijing’s efforts towardsreinforcing maritime claims for theshoals, islands and islets in the SouthChina Sea, covering substantial oil andgas reserves. The mineral and energy-richstretches, particularly the Spratly Islands,are a bone of contention among the lit-toral states in the South China Sea-criti-cally alarmed by the growing Chinesenaval capabilities.

In this reference, the Varyag carriermakes for a futuristic technology demon-strator, lucidly pointing towards the pathof China’s technological and scientificprowess. Questioning China’s long-termambitions, Japan’s latest 2011 AnnualDefence White Papers states, “China’s

future actions are worrisome…interpreted as ‘overbearing ways’ toaddress its clashing interests with neigh-bouring countries, including Japan”.Japanese Kyodo News Agency further cit-ed the white paper, “… attention needsto be paid to Chinese military’s recentmaritime activities, including operationsby naval vessels near Japan and develop-ment of bases for these activities.”Mounting Chinese presence in East Chi-na includes a recent incident in which aChinese marine research vessel was spot-ted near Uotsuri Island in the islet group,which China claims.

China has chosen to time theannouncements relating to the techno-logical leaps that it has undertaken inthe recent past including the fifth-gener-ation J-20 stealth fighter, which coincid-ed with the visit of US Secretary ofDefense, Robert Gates. The announce-ment about the Varyag aircraft carrierprovided a mirror vis-à-vis Chineseadvances in the field of military hard-ware around the same time as US VicePresident Joe Biden visited Beijing. Sig-nificantly, the Chinese media waspacked with reports of the American air-craft carrier, USS George Washington,and its battle group conducting jointexercises with the navies of the Philip-pines and Vietnam in the South ChinaSea. The official Xinhua News Agency rancommentaries citing an ‘organisedregional pushback’ against China.

There is a mounting sense of appre-hension and unease especially amongnations within Asia that with China’srapidly expanding military reach andprowess, coupled with higher stages ofeconomic growth, its intent to chipaway at claims of other nations throughmechanisms of coercive diplomacy willonly receive persistence. A very relevantquestion in the foreseeable future iswhether Beijing is keeping a wide arrayof options available, including that ofmilitary coercion following diplomacy,so as to press for politico-diplomaticadvantage as it stands to resolveimpending disputes in its favour whilebargaining from a position of strength.China’s Varyag carrier will only add tothat wherewithal once it is fully opera-tional in approximately a year’s time.

(The author is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare

Studies, New Delhi, where she heads the China-study project)

STOKING STRATEGIC ANXIETIES: Called Uotsuri by the Japanese and Diaoyu by theChinese, the tiny islands are a great source of friction between Tokyo and Beijing


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For effective use of maritime power the Indian Navy needs more landing platform docks like never before

CAN INDIA HAVEONE LIKE THIS?

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BEML AEROSPACE EYES OFFSETBUSINESS

PIPAVAV-MAZAGON DOCK DEAL ON HOLD

THE DEFENCE MINISTRY hascleared the sale of 10 per cent equityin state-owned Hindustan Aeronau-tics Ltd (HAL), in order to infusefunds in the much-needed upgrade ofthe military aircraft manufacturer’scapabilities.

HAL will become the third defenceundertaking after Bharat ElectricalsLtd and BEML to see disinvestment,with the need for funds overcominggovernment’s reluctance to dilute itsholding in the strategically importantcompany. Founded in 1964, HAL isone of Asia’s largest aerospace com-panies, involved in manufacturing andassembling aircraft, navigation andrelated communication equipment, aswell as operating airports.

The decision comes on the back of

a Finance Ministry directive asking allministries, including the Ministry OfDefence, to disinvest in profit-makingPSUs. Reports said that the valuationof HAL was being worked out. Thecompany has an annual sales turnoverof `13,000 crore. After an evaluationof HAL, the proposal will go to theDepartment of Disinvestment, whichwill prepare a note for the final nod bythe Cabinet Committee on EconomicAffairs.

The disinvestment will “reduce thegovernment burden’’ for the proposed`20,000 crore modernisation of plantsof the Bengaluru-headquartered HALover the next decade, with the PSUslated to handle new programmesworth billions of dollars with foreigncollaborators in the near future.

THE DEFENCE MINISTRY has putthe Mazagon Dock-Pipavav deal onhold. Defence Minister AK Antony,informed a consultative committeeattached to the Ministry of the deci-sion to put the deal on hold till a poli-cy on joint ventures was put in placeby the government.

According to the Defence Minister:“The Ministry will study the com-plaints received from some private

shipyards regarding the joint venture.The issue needs to be fully examinedand settled before any forward move-ment takes place on this front. Thejoint ventures must compete for con-tracts and should not get them on anomination basis. We are treading ona new path and we would like toensure that transparency is main-tained at all levels.”

MDL issued an expression ofinterest in March 2011 seekingstrategic partnership with Indian pri-vate sector shipyards to meet thetimelines for liquidating its orderbook of `1 lakh crore.

LOCKHEED MARTIN Aeronautics Com-pany announced that Michael N Kelleywould be Regional Market Director forSouth and Southeast Asia. In this ca-pacity he will have business develop-ment responsibility for Bangladesh,India, Malaysia, Nepal, the Philippines,Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. He isexpected to take complete responsibili-ties over the next few months before re-locating to LM Aeronautics headquartersin December 2011. Michael Kelley spentsix years in Lockheed Martin’s NewDelhi office where he led the 2008 saleof C-130J aircraft to the Indian AirForce, the first major Indo-US defencedeal in nearly 50 years. He also playeda major role in LM’s campaign for theMedium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft(MMRCA) competition.

Wing Commander (Retired) Rajesh KDhingra will lead the LM Aeronauticsbusiness development in India. He willlook after additional sales of C-130J air-craft and derivatives, unmanned air sys-tems, and maritime surveillance aircraft.Dhingra has been with Lockheed Martinsince April 2007.

BEML AEROSPACE, the aerospacedivision of BEML Ltd, is targetingthe enormouswindfall in aero-space offsetsbusiness. Thecompany is look-ing for opportu-nities to workwith civil andmilitary manufacturers, who haveoffset to offer. In last Paris AirShow, BEML announced memo-randum of understanding withItaly's Alenia Aeronautica SpA ondeveloping a new basic trainer.

To achieve this, BEML’s

aerospace will have 25-acre man-ufacturing facility at the Devana-

halli aerospacespecial econom-ic zone nearBengaluru with`455 crorei n v e s t m e n t s .The boardapproved this

investment on September 13. Thefacility will cater to manufactur-ing component and to assemblesmall planes. The division isexpected to have turnover of`1,000 crore from the aerospaceand offsets business by 2016-17.

LEADERSHIP CHANGEIN LOCKHEED MARTIN

HAL CLEARED FORDISINVESTMENT

Michael Kelley Rajesh K Dhingra


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THE RBS 70 NG is the latest air-defence system from Swedish majorSaab. With an integrated all-weather,all-target capability, Saab’s new RBS70 NG Very Short Range Air Defence(VSHORAD) system has been devel-oped for any combat situation. It has anew sighting system, improved preci-sion and increased all-target capabili-ty from its predecessor RBS 70.

The RBS 70 NG is a con-tender for procurement of VeryShort Range Air Defence(VSHORAD) Manportable AirDefence (MANPAD) missilefor the Indian Army.

The missile has an integrat-ed thermal imager and night-sight capability combine to providetrue 24/7 performance. Three-dimen-sional target designation and auto-matic target detection improve reac-tion times, while the auto-tracker aidsthe missile operator during engage-ment, increasing hit probabilitythroughout the missile range.

According to Saab India CountryHead, Inderjit Sial, “The RBS 70 NG ison offer to the Indian Army to fill acrucial need gap. The all-new RBS 70NG VSHORAD system is a versatilebattlefield game changer and willoffer critical edge in the spectrum ofdeployment. We believe that the RBS70 NG meets and exceeds the require-ments of the Indian Army for a systemthat has multiple target seeking and

tracking capabilities, multi-launchercapability, ability to deploy from highmobility vehicles and ship and sub-marine naval vessels, ability to engageaerial targets by day and night andaerial target detection capability.”

The RBS 70 NG can intercept anddestroy complete air-and-groundthreat, including long-range and closeto ground. Everything from fixed and

rotary-wing aircraft and heli-copters down to

s m a l lt a r g e t ssuch as cruisemissiles, UAVsand armouredground tar-gets can beengaged.

“The NGsight is soft-ware-based.New functionslike the auto trackerand visual cueing haveultimately resulted in ease ofuse and increased precision forboth small and large targets,even at maximum range,”explains Bill Forsberg,

Director, Product Management,Saab. The RBS 70 NG has an effectiveintercept range of 8 km, with altitudecoverage in excess of 5,000 m, evenin all terrain and environment. RBS70, the old missile was procured by18 nations around the world withmore than 1,600 systems and 17,000missiles sold.

SAAB UNVEILS RBS 70 NG SAM

INDIA, UK TIE UP FOR DEFENCE R&D INDIA AND United Kingdom signed aLetter of Arrangement (LoA) on Septem-ber 16, 2011, to pursue collaborativeDefence Research and DevelopmentCooperation with UK’s Defence Scienceand Technology Laboratory (DSTL).

This agreement will facilitate the bestuse of respective research and technologydevelopment capabilities through jointprojects, collaborative research andindustry and academia participation. TheLoA was signed in London by Dr VKSaraswat, Director-General DefenceResearch and Development Organisation(DRDO), India, and Professor Sir Mark Welland, ChiefScientific Adviser (CSA), Ministry of Defence, United

Kingdom.On the occasion, Sir Mark Welland

said, “He knows that UK can look for-ward to a productive and valuable coop-eration with our great allies in India formany years to come. India is one of thefastest growing economies in the worldand is a powerhouse of technology”. Onhis part Saraswat expressed hope thatLOA will further strengthen the techni-cal collaboration and mutual relations.The signing of LOA marks an impor-tant milestone in the technical collabo-ration between the two countries and a

number of projects are being planned to commence incoming months.

(24)May 2010

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R O L L S - R O Y C Ehas won a contractfrom Cochin Ship-yard to supply 60water jets for 20Fast Patrol Vesselsfor the Indian CoastGuard. The contractwill involve the sup-ply of Rolls-RoyceKamewa 71S3NP

water jets (three per vessel), andassociated equipment including ajoystick control system which will

enhance the manoeuvring capabilities of the vessels.The 50-metre-long vessels, which are currently under construction, will reach

speeds of 33 knots and will operate in Indian coastal waters and around island ter-ritories. Their roles will include coastal patrolling, anti-smuggling missions, fish-eries protection, as well as search-and-rescue duties. Water jets enable operation inshallow waters and offer higher speeds and better manoeuvrability than conven-tional propellers. Rolls-Royce has been supplying the Indian Coast Guard for 12years, with 86 water jets already in service or on order.

ROLLS-ROYCE WINS COCHIN SHIPYARD CONTRACT

The Indian

Air Force (IAF) is

opening the com-

mercial bids of the

two shortlisted man-

ufacturers of the

MMRCA tender by the

middle of October. Speaking

on a CII seminar Air Chief

Marshal NAK Browne said:

“We have a meeting of the

Defence Acquisition Council

on October 7 where some of

the issues are going to be

discussed. Once those issued

are cleared, hopefully by the

middle of month,

we should be in a

position to

open the bids.”

The IAF is in

final stages of

signing of the contract for

MMRCA and it is expected

that the contract will be

awarded by the end of this

year. ACM Browne further

said, “Offsets for this pro-

gramme amount to `20,000

crore plus and these are

going to be in service for

over a period of 13 years.”

SWEDISH DEFENCE major Saaband Indian software servicescompany Wipro have signed anagreement to jointly pursueopportunities for Active Protec-tion System (APS) on the Indianmarket. Micael Johansson,Senior Vice President and Headof Saab’s business area Electron-ic Defence Systems, and PratikKumar, President, Wipro Infra-structure Engineering,announced this at the Defence &Security Equipment Internation-al (DSEi) 2011 in London.

The joint venture will manu-facture, deliver and marketSaab’s entire suite of the LandElectronic Defence Systems(LEDS) in India. The Land Elec-tronic Defence System (LEDS)provides active protection tolight and medium combat vehi-cles, as well as to main battletanks against engagement byweapons such as the Rocket Pro-pelled Grenades, anti-tank mis-siles, mortars and artillery shells.In this venture Saab will bring inits competence and technologi-cal knowhow and Wipro willsupport in aligning this to theIndian market need. The compo-nents will be developed, manu-factured and systems integratedby Wipro to address the Indianmarket for land-based APS sys-tems. There is also the possibilityof Saab leveraging the Indianadvantage to market these sys-tems manufactured by Wiprointernationally as well.

SAAB, WIPRO SIGNAGREEMENT

MMRCA TO BE FINALISED BY YEAR END

IN COMMON usage, capability signi-fies an ability to perform specifiedactions. It is considered to be a sumtotal of potential, power, compe-tence, skill and facility. Military

capability means the ability of a militaryto perform designated defence-relatedfunctions to safeguard national securityobjectives. As national security objectivesare influenced by changing geo-strategicenvironment and resultant perception ofthreats, military capability can neither bean absolute concept nor be inflexible incharacter.

Although military capability is defineddifferently by most countries, its objec-tive is always adversary-centric, i.e.

domination of potential enemies. Britaindescribes it as ‘the ability to generate adesired operational outcome or effect,which can range from physical destruc-tion of targets to actions aimed at influ-encing the intentions and behaviour ofadversaries’. Military capability is an all-encompassing concept that requiresintelligent and meticulous configurationof force levels, equipment, doctrine,training, organisation, logistics, informa-tion technology, infrastructure and lead-ership for optimum effectiveness. Asequipment is a key factor in building mil-itary capability, the primary purpose ofevery defence acquisition system is time-ly provision of required equipment to its

armed forces. All other objectives are ofsecondary importance.

ACQUISITION PROGRAMMES FLOWFROM CAPABILITY REQUIREDProcurement of equipment goes throughtwo distinct phases: planning and acqui-sition. During the planning phase, equip-ment-related aspects of the Required Mil-itary Capability (RMC) are spelt out, gapsidentified and plans made to cover them.A look at the procedure followed by allmajor countries testifies to the fact thatdefence acquisitions are never undertak-en in a vacuum and have to follow thecontours of RMC. In Britain, the completeprocess of capability planning is carried

In the abscence of an official planning paper on national security, no one knows whatcapability the military must possess in the short, medium and long terms. The total system

is ad hoc, argues MRINAL SUMAN

CAPABILITY WITHOUT A PERSPECTIVE


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out under the aegis of the Deputy Chief ofthe Defence Staff (Equipment Capabili-ty). He acts as the main sponsor forplanned military capability and is supported by Capability Planning Groups(CPGs) which bring together key stake-holders including the frontline militaryusers. Acquisitions follow thereafter.

The US follows a three-stage decision-making support system. At the outset,‘Planning, Programming, Budgeting andExecution Process’ is undertaken by theDepartment of Defense to establish poli-cies and strategy; prioritise goals; andcraft plans and programmes that satisfythe demands of the National SecurityStrategy. The second stage relates to the‘Joint Capabilities Integration and Devel-opment System’ — the systematicmethod established by the Joint Chiefs ofStaff for assessing gaps in military jointwar-fighting capabilities and recom-mending solutions to resolve these gaps.The requirement generation system pro-duces information for decision-makerson the projected mission needs of themilitary. These mission needs are definedin broad operational terms for require-ments that develop into military’s opera-tional parameters, resulting in newdefence acquisition programmes. Finally,the Defence Acquisition System managesthe process to acquire necessary equip-ment to fill the gaps.

As per the German Defence PolicyGuidelines of May 27, 2011, capabilitiesfor future operations require regularmodifications and upgrades of equip-ment in terms of quality and quantity.Four ‘Integrated Capability AnalysisWorking Boards’ are constituted underthe Chief of Staff of Bundeswehr to analyse available and necessary

capabilities for the entire German armedforces. They deal with ‘Command andControl Capabilities’; ‘Intelligence andReconnaissance Capabilities’; ‘Support/Sustainability and Mobility Capability’;and ‘Effective Engagement and Surviv-ability of Forces Capability’. Based on thiscomprehensive capability analysis, capa-bility gaps are identified and solutions areinvestigated. For equipment and arma-ments, functional descriptions are pre-pared for those requirements that areessential for eliminating the deficit.

THE INDIAN SCENARIOPrior to its break-up, the Soviet Unionwas the sole supplier of defence equip-ment to India. In the absence of any oth-er source, India bought whatever wasoffered from the Soviet Union. At times,qualitative requirements were tailor-made to match the characteristics of theequipment on offer. Although lacking incutting-edge technology, Soviet equip-ment was sturdy and met Indian require-ments satisfactorily. Further, equipmentwas sold to India on highly subsidisedterms with facilities of deferred paymentin rupees — an ideal arrangement duringthe period of foreign exchange shortage.

As stated earlier, defence procure-ments during the Soviet-era were gener-ally availability based and not needbased. A major negative fallout of thearrangement was that Indian strategicplanners never developed the culture ofevolving long-term capability plans andidentifying equipment needed to imple-ment them. It was only after the recom-mendations of the Kargil Review Com-mittee that efforts were made to put aproper planning process in place.

Presently, there are four major handi-caps that afflict the Indian system. One,India has no national security objectives.Thus, defence planning is done on thebasis of conjectures and suppositions.That is the reason why it lacks coherence.Two, the whole process is equipment centric and not mission oriented. Resul-tantly, the whole process of defence plan-ning gets reduced to making shoppinglists of military equipment.

Three, there is no integrated function-ing and little ‘jointness’ in the wholeprocess. All Service Headquarters (SHQ)prepare their equipment lists in total isola-tion, without reference to the other servic-es. Headquarters Integrated Defence Staff(HQ IDS) compiles the lists and evolvesintegrated perspective plans. Thus, the

perspective plans are nothing more than acollection of wish lists for equipment sub-mitted by the three SHQ. That is the rea-son why the perspective plans lack neces-sary sanctity and credibility.

Finally, no long-term funding assur-ance is ever provided to the Ministry ofDefence (MoD), with the result that theperspective plans remain provisional andconditional. The annual budget present-ed in the Parliament in February gives thefirst indication of the kitty being madeavailable to MoD for the following finan-cial year. Needless to say, any perspectiveplan that lacks committed financial sup-port carries no weight.

NEED FOR A RATIONAL SYSTEMIt is high time the government took con-crete steps to reform the system. To startwith, it must formulate national securityobjectives to spell out its vision and laydown guidelines to protect India’s long-term interests and safeguard the core val-ues enshrined in the Constitution. Fornecessary inviolability, the said policydirective must emanate from the highestpolitical authority in the country, i.e. Cab-inet Committee on Security (CCS).

Based on the above directive, MoDshould evolve defence planning guide-lines, laying down contours of militarycapability required in short, medium andlong terms. Generalities and semanticsmust be avoided. The ‘guidelines’ mustprovide sufficient details to militaryplanners to define military capabilityobjectives.

HQ IDS, in conjunction with the SHQ,should study and analyse the ‘guidelines’to work out broad parameters of the draftRMC. As military capability is a complexand multi-faceted concept involvingmultiple disciplines and their intenseinterdependence, RMC should be brokendown into different sub-capabilities forfocused treatment. A continuous dia-logue between different sub-capabilitygroups and stakeholders will be neces-sary to resolve differences to arrive atmutually acceptable solutions. There-after, plans submitted by all sub-capabili-ty groups should be integrated in a seam-less manner to evolve a comprehensiveRMC plan with well spelt out milestones.

Finalised the RMC plan, dulyapproved by MoD, should act as the prin-cipal policy document. It should providedetailed directions for undertakingmeasures under the following heads toachieve RMC:-

October 2011

Preparation of perspective plans with broadperformance contours of equipment required

Analysis of Required Military Capability to spellout overall capability objectives

Breakdown of overall capability objectives into sub-capability goals for different areas/disciplines

Appraisal of existing inventory against RequiredEquipment Profile to identify shortfalls and gaps

Translation of sub-capability goals into RequiredEquipment Profiles with timelines

Integration of all equipment gaps to developcommonality and avoid duplication of effort

Formulation of Perspective Plans:A Typical Flow Chart

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Force strength and structure.Operations and doctrine.Equipment.Training and support facilities. Logistics and infrastructure. Sub-groups should be constituted for

each head by HQ IDS in conjunction withSHQ. Their task should entail the follow-ing steps:-

Analysis of RMC as it relates to theirarea of study and converting therequirement into a template of com-prehensive, well-structured and quan-tifiable imperatives. Comparison of the above templatewith the existing and in-pipeline incre-ments to identify gaps and deficien-cies. Evolution of short, medium and long-term plans to make up the deficien-cies, keeping likely resource allocationin mind. As seen above and shown diagrammat-

ically in Illustration 3, procurement ofequipment goes through two distinctphases — planning and acquisition. Dur-ing the planning phase, RMC is evolved,gaps in equipment inventory are identi-fied and plans made to cover them. Theequipment sub-group produces 15-yearLong-Term Integrated Perspective Plan(LTIPP). It is essential that the equipmentsub-group be broad based and wellequipped to understand evolving tech-nology complexities. Therefore, in addi-tion to the services, it should consist ofrepresentatives of the Defence Research

and Development Organisation, theQuality Assurance Organisation and theDefence Finance. Experts and membersof the industry should also be co-optedon ‘as required’ basis.

Once LTIPP is ready, it should be debat-ed at length in the Defence AcquisitionCouncil (DAC), the overarching authorityunder the Defence Minister. Subsequent-ly, LTIPP should be split into three five-year Services Capital Acquisition Plans(SCAP). Once approved by DAC, LTIPPand SCAP should become mother docu-ments for acquisitions. Although periodicreviews are needed to cater for changinggeo-strategic developments and resultantpolicy corrections, modifications to per-spective plans should be carried out onlyafter due diligence. Alteration of RMCmust not result in unacceptable costpenalty and time delay.

Every country expresses its aspirationsthrough the delineation of national secu-rity objectives, strategy and doctrine, dulyapproved by the supreme politicalauthority. Being one of the key instru-ments of the state policy, military mustpossess matching capability to supportnational aspirations. Military capability isa function of manpower, equipment,infrastructure, logistics, training and doc-trine. These elements combine togetherto generate potential of a fighting force.Therefore, RMC is neither an impreciseattribute nor does it operate in a vacuum.It is a dynamic and evolving concept.

As equipment is a crucial constituent of

military capability, equipment acquisitionplans must be evolved assiduously.Propensity for buying the best availablein the world market must be curbed. Allprocurements must be need based. It willbe prudent to scrutinise every acquisi-tion case against three questions — ‘Willthe equipment contribute to RMC in thegiven time frame?’, ‘What are the alterna-tives available to achieve similar capabil-ity?’ and ‘Which alternative is most cost-effective?’

Indian MoD and the services are oftenaccused of buying military equipmentwithout adequate planning. Critical defi-ciencies in artillery/air defence resourcesand continued neglect of infantryweapons are cited to highlight lopsidedpriorities. Further, it is alleged that theperspective plans lack consistency. Theyundergo changes with the changes in topbrass. As the funds remain limited, revi-sion of priorities results in abandonmentof ongoing projects restricted, inevitablyresulting in the wastage of time andresources invested.

The government has constitutedNaresh Chandra Committee to recom-mend reforms in Indian defence system.It must stress putting in place an institu-tionalised mechanism to ensure thatdefence acquisitions are undertaken asper well-evolved perspective plans toacquire Required Military Capability tofulfill national security objectives.

(The writer is a retired Major General)

Recommended System for Evolving Capability PlansPlanning Phase Precedes Acquisition Process

Receipt of Defence Planning Guidelines by Headquarters Inte-grated Defence Staff for formulating Required Military Capability

Critical analysis of Required Military Capability and breakdownof total capability into Sub-Capability areas/disciplines

Command & Control Group

Func

tiona

lSu

b-C

apab

ilitie

s

Intelligence & Support

Mobility & Survivability

Infrastructure Group

Command & Control Group

Func

tiona

lSu

b-C

apab

ilitie

s

Intelligence & Support

Mobility & Survivability

Infrastructure Group

Study, analysis, synthesis and assimilation of reports received from allSub-Capability Groups to identify critical capability gaps and evolutionof 15-year Long-Term Capability Plan with duly-specified milestones forblocks of five-year phase in five major areas for capability enhancement

Constitution of Sub-Capability Groups for each areas/discipline

Force Strengthand Structure

Operations andDoctrine Equipment Training and

Support Logistics andInfrastructureCommencement of Acquisition Process

Pla

nn

ing

Pro

cess

Stage 1 Cabinet Committee on SecurityDelineation of National Security Objectives, Strategy and Doctrine

Stage 3 Headquarters Integrated Defence Staff Evolution of Required Military Capability, Long Term Integrated

Perspective Plan (LTIPP) & Services Capital Acquisition Plan (SCAP)

Stage 4 Defence Acquisition Council Approval of LTIPP and SCAP

Stage 5 Service HeadquartersPreparation of Annual Acquisition Plan

Stage 2 Ministry of DefenceIssuance of Defence Planning Guidelines

Stage 6 Defence Acquisition CouncilGrant of Approval and Categorisation of Acquisition Proposals

gGEOPO L I T I C S

gINTERVIEW

Sikorsky AircraftCorporation plans to

pursue multipleopportunities in the Indiandefence market, a strategy

that could see the companyactively targeting the

country’s internal securityset-up. For the armed

forces, Sikorsky is offeringthe S-70B through the

direct commercial salesroute. Sikorsky has also bidfor Indian Navy’s multi-role

helicopter (MRH)programme.

ROHIT SRIVASTAVA spoketo ARVIND WALIA,

Sikorsky’s ManagingDirector for South Asia, to

gauge the company’s plansin India

October 2011


Pho

to: H

.C.T

iwar

i

(29)October 2011

gINTERVIEW

g

www.geopolitics.in

Q: Tell us about Sikorsky’s bid for the naval multirole helicopter (MRH)programme.Walia: We have on offer to the IndianNavy the naval variant of the Black Hawkfamily called the S-70 Bravo. This ma-chine has recently been made availableto the Singapore and Turkish navies.There are a number of navies across theworld, which also fly this helicopter. Weare negotiating for the flight evaluationtrials to start by the end of September.

Q: You recently won a Turkish contractagainst AugustaWestland. Will it haveany impact on the Indian Navy’s MRHbid?Walia: They are two different platforms.It’s a competitive world and we are com-peting against AugustaWestland againfor 16 helicopters. Ours is a machine,which has been in use for a number ofyears and it has proved itself for maritimeusage. There are more than nine or tencountries that operate around 70 BlackHawks. We have a lot of history behindus. We are not new to naval operations ornaval requirements. The US Navy is theproud owner of Sikorsky helicopters.May the best machine win!

Q: What are the similarities betweenthe SeaKing and the Sikorsky S-70B?Walia: The SeaKing was a Sikorsky ma-chine produced under licence by West-land. So, there are similarities betweenthe SeaKing and S-70B. The Black Hawkfamily is different in the technology thatit uses. The SeaKing is an old machineand this (the S-70B) is a brand new hel-icopter. You cannot compare the two asof today, you cannot.

Q: Can you tell us something about thestealth version of Black Hawk?Walia: I would not like to hazard a guesson what happened in Abbottabad. Theonly thing I can say is that it was a Siko-rsky helicopter and that was an Army ve-hicle and not a maritime one. But thefamily is the same. Beyond that, we arenot aware of anything. Sikorsky is knownfor its record of innovations, safety char-acteristics, performance, availability andreliability; I think it reinforces the culturethat we have evolved into what we areover the years.

Q: What are the major technologicaladvancements being offered?Walia: What is being offered is the latestin technology. They have worked outtheir requirements. Now those Staff Qual-ity Requirements (SQRs) are being met.We are offering all the technology theyhave asked for without reservations.

Q: Recently the 100th MH-60 was deliv-ered to the American armed forces. Arethere any plans for upgradation of thesehelicopters?Walia: The innovations on these MH-60sare done as per the requirements of theUS armed forces. So it becomes their In-tellectual Property (IP). As and when theydo have some new ideas, they are trans-lated into technology and made availableto them. Sikorsky has a special depart-ment called Sikorsky Innovations, whichinnovates constantly to translate thoseideas into technology. We have our spe-cial projects, some which I’m sure youhave heard of. So, we have the X2, whichwas test flown. It’s a helicopter’s heli-copter, and not a heliplane like the (Eu-rocopter) X3 or the (Boeing) Osprey. OurX2 technology demonstrator is going totransform and revolutionise the verticaltake-off philosophy in the years to come.The helicopter has already flown at 250knots per hour. The demonstrator madeits last flight on July 14, 2011, and isnow being handed over to a museum inthe United States. A prototype is beingcreated for further development.

Q: How do you see Indian small andmedium enterprise as part of your supply chain?Walia: I know there is a lot of strengthavailable within the country in terms ofsmall and middle-level enterprises. We

have very stringent quality processesand if they qualify, they get on board.Otherwise they are dropped. So theyhave to meet our strict quality process-es and other requirements of supply-zero tolerance. We cannot have any tol-erance or concessions for any of oursuppliers.

Once they qualify, they go throughthe rigours of meeting those very strin-gent standards and then they are certi-fied. The certification starts with theACE process (Achieving Competitive Ex-cellence). They have to go through theseprocesses, starting with the Bronze cer-tification to Silver to Gold to Platinum. Itis in stages and once you reach the Plat-inum, nobody can deny you the right toproduce for us because you have quali-fied and you have maintained the stan-dards throughout.

Q: What do you think about the delays inthe Indian government’s procurementprocedure?Walia: I don’t think the delays are new toIndian government defence procure-ment alone. You’ll find delays the worldover as governments invest public mon-ey into defence procurement. Everythinghas to be crystal clear. Deals shouldmeet all the requirements and need to gothrough all the procedures. There shouldnot be an iota of doubt left in the mindsof the people, who process the cases. Andif they are taking the call and the processis delayed, so be it. At the end of the day,the country is investing billions of dollarsand why should they not be getting thebest that they are required to get? As faras I am concerned, procedures must befollowed and it should be above board; itshould be transparent; and it should besubject to scrutiny. It must be ensuredthat the country does get what it paid forout of the public funds. I would like ourcountry to know that United TechnologiesChairman Louis Chênevert has alreadystated that the company and its con-stituents treat the requirements of the Indian government and the Indian defence forces as they treat requirementsof the US government and the US armedforces. I think this is a huge tribute to India, and since that statement we havecovered a lot of ground and are nowmoving on the right path.

PROCEDURESMUST BE

FOLLOWED ANDIT SHOULD BETRANSPARENTAND SUBJECTTO SCRUTINY

“IT IS A COMPETITIVEWORLD...”

“IT IS A COMPETITIVEWORLD...”


The Indian Navy wants a ship which has a well deck, a vehicle deck as well as substantialhelicopter hosting capability.This is considered extremely significant to exert influence in

the Indian Ocean region, says SAURAV JHA

LOOKING FOR LANDINGPLATFORM DOCKS

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gDEFBIZ

FULL SPRECTRUM PLATFORM:Landing platform docks carry a rangeof equipment for amphibious attacksand expeditionary warfare missions,including helicopters and assaulthovercrafts

THE INDIAN NAVY’S (IN) rolein relief and rescue operationsduring the 2004 Indian OceanTsunami won it plaudits fromthe international community,

while underlining its strategic potency

to Indian policy planners. For the INhowever, that event brought to the forethe crucial need to augment amphibi-ous capabilities above and beyond whatis provided by its existing fleet of medi-um sized landing ship tanks (LSTs). The

first step was, of course, to induct theformer USS Trenton, an Austin-ClassLanding Platform Dock (LPD) as theINS Jalashwa. This ship has not onlygiven the IN exposure to operating avessel of this size and capability but hasalso helped it get a fair idea of what itwants for the future. And now the INhas begun the procedure to bring infour new large amphibious ships whichwill be domestically built under inter-national collaboration. It would beworthwhile to look at possible con-tenders given the features specified inthe request for information (RFI) forprocuring four new LPDs issued by theIN in February this year.

The Indian Maritime Military Strate-gy (IMMS) released in 2007 clearlyrecognises “that the use of maritimepower to influence operations ashore isa primary, and not a subsidiary, role ofmaritime force employment”. It furtheroutlines that “this could be undertakenthrough commodity denial or by direct-ly supporting the land campaignthrough the delivery of ordnance bynaval platforms or amphibious and/orexpeditionary capabilities”. Indeed, it isprecisely to augment ‘out-of-area’ orexpeditionary capabilities that theseLPDs are being sought by the IN.

In fact, the ability to affect the courseof the land battle has always beensomething of a “must have” for the IN.While the capability to strike shore tar-gets using ship-launched missiles wasdemonstrated four decades ago withthe famous raid on Karachi harbourduring the 1971 war, effective ‘MaritimeManoeuvre from the Sea’, involvingjoint sea-land-air operations whichallow forced/benign entry using sea-based forces in the Indian Ocean Rim(IOR) littoral is something of a holy grailfor the IN.

October 2011


gDEFBIZ

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THE NAVY WILLPROCURE FOUR

LARGEDOMESTICALLY

PRODUCEDAMPHIBIOUS

SHIPS

The service still rues the missedopportunity “for conduct of an out-flanking amphibious assault” on Pak-istan’s coastline during 1971. Whateverlittle was done by way of amphibiousoperations during that conflict was exe-cuted without adequate preparationand assets, thus limiting the overalleffect in the outcome of the war. The INfeels that platforms such as LPDsenhance options and opportunities thatexist in the many IOR scenarios of inter-est to India.

The LPD as such seems set tobecome the IN’s centerpiece contribu-tion to “jointness”, a key mantra if Indiahas to exert decisive influence in theIOR. In a show of somewhat novel inter-service concern, the IMMS notes that“even if the IN solved the Army’s trans-portation problem, it often depositedthe troops ashore in an unfit conditionto fight”. Modern LPD designs set greatstore on the comfort of troops theytransport. As the IMMS further notes:“The Army’s task begins at the ‘end’ ofthe voyage and troops must in future beprovided enough rest and other facilities during the sea transit. Staff

requirements for amphibious assets,sealift and airlift must be alive to theserequirements.”

In the above context, the INS Jalash-wa introduced to the IN the kind ofadvantages having a ship capable ofhosting both a substantial helicopterwing, as well as smaller landing craft,brings to the table in the power projec-tion role. The IN understood that sim-ply having a beach landing capabilitydoes not make one a true amphibiouspower. True amphibious potencyinstead arises from stand-off beachingand vertical envelopment capabilities,

which deliver troops on target muchfresher and with an arguably higher sur-vivability rate. Over-the- horizonassault executed via a mix of heli-borneand seaborne operations, is exactlywhat ships such as the Jalashwa aredesigned to do.

No doubt influenced by the Jalashwa,the broad specifications of the ship out-lined in the RFI are as follows:

The length of the ship would be approx200 m. Breadth is to be commensuratewith the length and tonnage of the ship.The draught of the ship is not to exceed08 m.The ship is expected to have anendurance of 45 days.The ship is to have diesel-electricpropulsion in either of the following configurations: Twin shaft configuration, with twin

rudders and Fixed Pitch Propellers or, Shock graded podded propulsion.

The ship is to have a suitable well deck

THE LEVIATHAN: INS Jalashwa gave the Indian Navy exposure to operating a vessel of its capability and helped it define futurerequirements


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SET TO BECOMENAVY’S

CENTERPIECECONTRIBUTION TOTHE “JOINTNESS"

DOCTRINE

(continued on page 34)


TECH SCANgg

BRAHMOS BLOCK III TRIALS SUCCESSFUL

THE INDIAN SPACE RESEARCHORGANISATION (ISRO) IS PLAN-NING TO DEVELOP THE SATISHDHAWAN SPACE CENTRE AT SRI-HARIKOTA IN ANDHRA PRADESHINTO A CENTRE FOR ASSEM-BLING SATELLITES AND ROCK-ETS. ACCCORDING TO ISROCHAIRMAN K RADHAKRISHNAN,“OUR VISION IS A QUANTUMJUMP IN SATELLITES ANDLAUNCH VEHICLES TO BE DEALTWITHIN FUTURE YEARS. THESPACE PORT OF SRIHARIKOTASHOULD FURTHER DEVELOPINTO AN AREA WHERE THEINDUSTRIES IN INDIA WORKINGFOR SPACE WOULD COMETOGETHER, ASSEMBLE SATEL-LITES AND ROCKETS THERE ANDMOVE TO THE LAUNCH PAD.”THE ISRO CHIEF ADDED THATHIS ORGANISATION WOULDWORK WITH THE ANDHRAPRADESH GOVERNMENT INVISUALISING AND MAKING THESPACE PORT DEVELOPMENTPLAN A REALITY.

THE INDIAN Army has successfully conduct-ed the user trials of BrahMos Block IIIsupersonic cruise missiles. The Block IIIversion has the capability of scaling moun-tainous terrain and can take a steep dive toengage targets located inside hillocks,which are otherwise inacces-sible. This was the 25thtest of theCruise mis-sile, whichhas alreadybeen inducted in the Army and the Navy.The Army has plans to induct the missile formountain warfare. The missile has thecapability to engage ground targets from avery low altitude with minimum radar

signature and is considered best for surgi-cal operations. Considered one of thefastest Cruise missiles in the world, theBrahMos can gain a speed ofMach 2.8. It

has a two-stage propulsion system,

with a solid-propellant rocket forinitial acceleration and a liquid-fuelled ram-jet responsible for sustained supersoniccruise. Jointly developed by India and Rus-sia, the BrahMos is a stealth supersoniccruise missile that can be launched fromsubmarines, ships, aircraft or land.

FINAL VERSION OF ARDE GUN UNVEILED THE ARMAMENT Research and Develop-ment Establishment (ARDE) has developedthe final version of the modern sub-machinecarbine (MSMC). The carbine is being devel-oped for use on the battlefield as well as forurban warfare. According to seniorARDE officials,the gun wasdeveloped in associa-tion with ordnance factories.The armed forces will now begiven the gun for trials. TheMSMC is a lightweight, com-pact, automatic gun with a small barrel and can be firedfrom the hip or from the

shoulder. The gun will be helpful in closeencounters and can be used by the IndianArmy, the paramilitary forces and commandos.

Established in 1958, the ARDE comesunder the Defence Research and Develop-

ment Organisation (DRDO).Its work includes designingand developing conventionalarmaments, basic and

applied research, model-ling, simulation and soft-

ware development in thefield of conventional

armament and transferof technology relat-

ed works.

SPACE HUB ATSRIHARIKOTA

THE PRE-DELIVERY trials of the Akula-II class nuclear attack submarine K-152 the“Nerpa” are in their final stages before their handing over to the Indian Navy on a10-year lease. The Indian crew is honing their skills to handle the deadly weaponsplatform during the trials in the Sea of Japan under the supervision of the Russiannaval personnel. The Indian crew has undergone almost a two-year-long trainingcourse including a six-month crashcourse in Russian language in Indiaand about 18 months training in StPetersburg to sail and operate theweapon system of the Akula-II classsubmarine.

Designed by St Petersburg-based“Malachite” and “NPO Avrora” designbureaus, the Nerpa is a third-genera-tion nuclear submarine, which was laidat the Amur Shipyard in 1991 justbefore the Soviet collapse when itsconstruction was frozen due to a cashcrunch. India had financed its comple-tion under a $650-800-million deal.

NUKE SUBMARINE TRIALS IN FINAL STAGES

for amphibious operations. The shipwould carry amphibious crafts likeLCMs or LCACs and LCVPs on davitsand should have capability to launchthese crafts when underway.The ship is expected to have a carriageof combat vehicles on one or morevehicle decks. This area should be ade-quate to embark Main Battle Tank(MBT), AAVs/BMP Class armouredvehicles and heavy trucks.The ship would be equipped with a PointDefence Missile System, Close InWeapon System, Anti Torpedo Decoysystem, Chaff System and HMGs/LMGs. In addition, ship would have oneE/ F band combined air and surface sur-veillance radar and one C/D band air

surveillance radar. All of these would bebuyer nominated equipment.The ship is expected to carry armytroops in addition to ship crew.The ship should have capability ofsimultaneous operation by day/ night ofSpecial Operation Helicopters and Large

Helicopters (upto 35 tonnes).From the RFI it is clear that the IN

wants a ship that has a well deck, a vehi-cle deck as well as substantial helicopterhosting capability. None of it is surpris-ing and conforms broadly with the fea-tures of an LPD. However, the require-ment that the ship “should have capabil-ity of simultaneous operation by day/night of Special Operation Helicoptersand Large Helicopters (upto 35 tons)”raises an important point. The ability tohost rather big helicopters and conducthigh tempo operations with them issomething that can really be managedbetter by a Landing Helicopter Dock(LHD) than an LPD. Readers would notethat LPD and LHD are actually US hullclassifications which over the years havebecome standard industry usage for sim-ilar ships irrespective of origin.

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EVEN AS the Indian Navy’s (IN’s) inductionof principal surface combatants (PSCs)such as destroyers and frigates continuesto make news, the force is also recapital-ising its fleet of smaller combatants whilebringing in new capabilities in this seg-ment. Admittedly less glamorous, thesesmaller combatants are crucial to India’s security since they are designed tospecifically address requirements in anti-submarine warfare (ASW), coastal securityand anti-piracy operations.

The largest of the smaller combatantsare of course the four P-28 Kamorta classstealth ASW corvettes being built by Gar-den Reach Shipbuilders and EngineersLimited (GRSE), Kolkata. Displacing 2500tons and with a length of 109.1 metres,these vessels represent the state-of-the-artfor this class of ships. Their weaponry ofcourse reflects their accent towards ASWwith each P-28 expected to carry six 3M 54vertically launched Klub-N missiles, two

RBU-6000 Anti-submarine rocket launch-ers, 324 mm torpedoes, besides a 76.2mm Oto Melara super rapid gun mount(SRGM) for engaging surface targets andtwo AK-630M rotary cannons as close- in-weapon systems (CIWS) for tackling air-borne threats. A fully automated indige-nous common helicopter traversing sys-tem (CHTS) that GRSE developed withtechnical support from the UK-basedMactagart Scott is likely to be installed onthe helicopter deck of the ASW corvettesunder construction. In any case, each P-28will mount a single Sea King class ASW hel-icopter. The first of the series, INS Kamor-ta, will be delivered to the Navy in June2012, with the next following in another sixmonths. It is also believed that GRSE willsecure a follow on order for eight moreships of this class with enhanced featuresunder Project 28A.

Staying with ASW capability augmen-tation, one would note that Navy recent-ly issued a request for information (RFI) foran unspecified number of shallow wateranti-submarine craft. The IN is looking tobring in the craft for “anti-submarine

(34)October 2011 www.geopolitics.in

SMALLER COMBATANTS

BIG CHOPPERSARE MANAGEDBETTER BY A

LANDINGHELICOPTER

DOCK THAN AN LPD

(continued from page 32)

BLUE WATER HUNTERS: One of the most important successes for the Indian Navy inthe small combatant category has been the fast attack craft series of vessels

Nevertheless, it seems that the IN isusing LPD and LHD somewhat inter-changeably in this tender given the totalset of requirements. In any case, the INwill procure these ships under the “buyand make Indian” category outline inthe Defence Procurement Policy (DPP)2011. So it will purchase these from anIndian shipyard and the RFI has accord-ingly been issued only for the benefit ofdomestic ship-builders. The interna-tional collaboration, if any, will have tobe put in place by the Indian entityitself, without any direct involvementfrom the IN. The RFI clearly states:

“In accordance with the provisionsof ‘Buy and Make (Indian)’ procedure, aCapability Definition Document (CDD)would be forwarded to Indian Ship-yards, short listed based on RFIresponses. The Indian shipyards, in turn

would forward a Detailed Project Pro-posal outlining the road map for devel-opment of design and construction ofthe ships. The Detailed Project Propos-al, thereafter, would be examined by aProject Appraisal Committee (PAC) con-stituted by the Acquisition Wing of MoD

to verify credentials of foreign partnertogether with confirming acceptabilityof joint venture of the shipyard with theforeign collaborator”.

So, one can assume that rather thanthe exact labeling of the ship type, it isconformity to the defined capabilitiesthat will decide the matter. At themoment it seems, Hindustan ShipyardLimited and some newly opened pri-vate shipyards will be awarded this ten-der which will be upwards of 16000crore rupees. Internationally, a numberof players would be interested in collab-orating with Indian shipyards for thistender. Importantly though, it will notjust be companies in the western hemi-sphere that have designs suitable forthe IN. East Asian entities could carrythis tender given their experience inbuilding such ships.

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warfare operations in coastal waters andcombating the threat posed by sub-marines” and wants them to acquire themfrom indigenous sources i.e. under the ‘buyIndian’ category of the Defence Procure-ment Procedure 2011. The order is ex-pected to be large, given that the IN has in-dicated that it may divide the contract be-tween two different shipyards.

The craft would also beused for undertaking low-intensity maritime opera-tions and laying of anti-ship and anti-submarinemines. The RFI specifiesthat these vessels shouldbe able to operate within200 nautical miles fromtheir launch base andshould be capable of trav-eling at speeds of above 25knots. As far as weaponsare concerned, these shipswould be equipped withtorpedoes and rocketlaunchers for ASW. Thesedetails imply that the

vessels are most likely replacement for theexisting Abhay class corvettes that fill thisrole. In any case, the Navy wants that thevendors should have an agreement with adesign partner for the construction ofvessels at the time of submission of tender.

One of the most important successes forthe IN in the small combatant category hasbeen the class Water Jet-Fast Attack Craft(WJ-FAC) built by GRSE. Ordered in 2006,all ten planned units have entered servicewith the IN and have apparently im-pressed the force sufficiently that more arenow in the offing. Each WJ-FAC measures52 metres in length, displaces 325 tons andcan reach speeds in excess of 30 knots.Every unit has a complement of four offi-cers and 39 sailors. Each vessel is fittedwith three HamiltonJet HM811 water jets,coupled with MTU 16V 4000 M90, facili-tating quiet patrolling activities at ex-tended ranges while detecting unsus-pecting submarines using an onboardcommercial echo sounder. At the mo-ment however, the WJ-FACS seemed tohave proved their mettle in recent anti-piracy operations off the Lakshadeep

islands and are now being seen as ex-tremely useful for maritime policing op-erations aimed at countering everythingfrom piracy to terrorism.

The rise of piracy and seaborne terror-ist activities has meant that preventivemeasures can no longer focus only in thevicinity of India’s coast. Blue-water inter-diction of fleeting, albeit serious threats, hasclearly acquired importance in recenttimes. It is precisely to meet this kind ofneed that the IN ordered four Saryu ClassOffshore Patrol vessels (OPVs) from GoaShipyard in. These ‘blue-water’ OPVs, onlyslightly smaller than the P-28s, displace2215 tons and are 105 m in length. They arecapable of extended patrols and are capa-ble of carrying a Dhruv-sized helicopter.Armed with a 76.2 mm Oto Melara SRGMand two AK-630M while reaching a speedof over 25 knots, these ships are morethan a match for any pirate skiff or ‘moth-erships’ out there. Once operational, thesevessels may actually obviate the need todeploy PSCs for anti-piracy operations.

In a sign that the IN is looking to aug-ment its holdings in this category, Pi-pavav Shipyard recently secured a contractfrom the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD)to build five large offshore patrol vessels(OPVs) at a cost of `2975 crores ($660 mil-lion). The agreement is thought to be thefirst major naval shipbuilding deal in In-dia in which a company from the privatesector has been named as prime contrac-tor, and is actually a taste of things to come,as the Navy quickly builds up on the patrolcomponent of its fleet. — Saurav Jha

www.geopolitics.in

(35)October 2011

THE CAPABILITIESOF A VESSEL

MATTER MORETHAN THE

EXACT LABELING OF THE

SHIP TYPE

www.geopolitics.in

AFTER WAITING with batedbreath for nearly a quarter of acentury, the Indian Army isyet to get its next-generationartillery gun following the

controversial procurement of the Boforsin 1986. The much-awaited M777 UltraLight Howitzer (ULH) from BAE Systemsmight get postponed since the deal hashit a roadblock. The proverbial sword ofDamocles hangs over the M777 that isbeing purchased through the ForeignMilitary Sales (FMS) route after the lasttender was cancelled. In the previoustender, BAE Systems was pitched againstSingapore Technology Kinetics (STK).However, STK was subsequently recom-mended for blacklisting by the CentralBureau of Investigation (CBI) after beingprobed for alleged corruption charges.

The latest obstacle is the Delhi HighCourt order that has asked the govern-ment not to award the tender. TheCourt’s decision has put the Ministry ofDefence (MoD) under immense pres-sure. The Ministry is not sure about thelegal status of the ongoing deal and theDelhi High Court’s decision is binding.The current deal for the M777 ULH isthrough the FMS, which is a direct pur-chase from US government and hasnothing to do with the 2008 suspendedtender. Army sources have argued: “Thelinking of two different tenders is notonly going to derail the process, but willalso open a new precedence which canbe exploited to sabotage future deals.”

The Indian Army is in dire need of

The Indian Army’s much-awaited artillery procurement plan looks uncertain because oflegal and procedural wrangles, writes ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

ANOTHER MISFIRE FORLONG-RANGE ARTILLERY

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THE CURSE OF BOFORS? BAE Systems M-777 could be the latest casualty of India’sprotracted artillery modernisation programme

(36)October 2011

artillery guns. Our sources suggest: “Tillrecently, the Army had enough guns forits operational requirements but gaps inthe artillery have begun to rise. In thenear future, the Army’s field units willbegin facing a dearth of artillery guns. Atpresent, the situation is not grave, but ifthe two deals being pursued don’t gothrough, then the situation will beextremely dire. These two deals are veryimportant for operational readiness andwe must have them.”

Artillery is used in wars for both attackand defence roles. The main purpose ofemploying any artillery gun is to pul-verise the enemy formation beforeattacking. The long range of artillery pro-vides depth, reach and destructive powerto any advancing or defensive units in abattlefield. The use of artillery guns min-imise the casualties both in defensiveand offensive missions. The role ofartillery in the Kargil War is legendaryand is very much part of public domain.

Army sources suggest: “The Army’s

capability to launch offensives will not belost if we don’t have these guns, but theirabsence will cost more human lives andwill prolong the time of operations.”Therefore, artillery guns have the abilityto shorten the time taken to achieve anyoperational objective. No modern armytoday can afford to ignore artillery guns.

The Indian Army, however, mighthave to redraw its operational plans asthe possibility of receiving new guns isgetting bleak. The deal in contention at

present is the much-talked about UltraLight Howitzer (ULH) from the US gov-ernment through the FMS route. TheArmy is planning to conduct field trialsin the coming winter but the deal isunder stress as Singapore TechnologyKinetics is pursuing its case against thegovernment of India to prove that it hascommitted no corruption and shouldnot be barred from participating in anyfuture tenders, where it has suitableproducts to offer.

Industry sources have informed thatthis legal tussle will have serious reper-cussions over future deals. The DelhiHigh Court order of May 2, 2011, states,“It is made clear that the petitioner willbe permitted to join the tenderingprocess, if the petitioner ultimately suc-ceeds in the petition. We consider appro-priate to direct that though the respon-dents can proceed with the process ofthe tender, the tender will not be award-ed without leave and liberty of the court.”This has put the government on the backfoot. The Army is miffed by the use oflegal proceedings to gain brownie pointsand feels that it is the government’s pre-rogative to buy from a vendor it sees fit.Senior Army officials argue that this kindof legal battle will lead to unnecessarydelays. According to one senior Armyofficer, “The Indian Army is the customerand we will choose who to do business

with. The vendor cannot decide. An Indi-an vendor can ask the government forconsideration but not a foreign supplier.”

To insulate itself from any legal has-sles, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) hasnow asked the Ministry of Law for legaladvice. What is important to note hereis that the procurement procedure isnot a law. It is a procedure, made by theMoD, and senior bureaucrats should bewell aware of its basics. They shouldknow whether it is possible to buy any-thing from a second tender withoutcancelling the first tender or not. But itseems the MoD is not very confidentabout its own rules.

The MoD, therefore, now wants toplay safe. As a result, there is no decisive-ness on the future course it wants totake. This is going to impact the procure-ment of the artillery guns. In continua-tion of the ongoing legal battle on theULH, the next deal for 400, 52 caliberguns has also got mired in controversy asthe one of the two contenders — Israelifirm Elbit — has presented a gun whichit has received from Soltam after itsacquisition, a firm that had been recom-mended by the CBI for blacklisting. Thearmy was, incidentally, eagerly waitingfor these two guns.

Government sources suggest: “Globaldefence industry has gone through con-solidation. Numerous firms have gotmerged or were acquired by anotherfirm. The offering to India is a productwhich has committed no crime. IfSoltam has committed any crime, it istheir management that is punishable,not the gun. Once a new firm has takenover the other firm, there should be noissue in buying from them. BAE boughtBofors and now we are dealing with BAEon the Bofors guns.”

The Army feels there are very few firmsthat have weapons to suit its needs and ifIndia takes such a lofty moral highground, ignoring the requirements, thenthe country may have to pay a heavyprice. Propriety and transparency in pro-curement is important, but what needsto be remembered is that the rules aremade to facilitate honest buying, not todelay the procurement indefinitely.

Sources suggest that a new proposal isbeing worked out where the 52 caliberguns could be manufactured in India bythe Ordinance Factory Board afterprocuring it through the FMS route. Thatalso seems the best way out but it is cer-tainly not the most desired one.

October 2011

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IN THE NEARFUTURE, THEARMY’S FIELD

UNITS WILL BEGINFACING A

DEARTH OFARTILLERY GUNS

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www.cruisingheights.inSeptember 2011 � ` 90

IMPLEMENTATION OF GROUND HANDLING POLICY DELAYED — ONCE MORE

A STARIS NOTBORN

Air India’s Maharaja may be broken — the rejectionby Star Alliance of Air India’s membership and thewhimsical performance of its erstwhile CMD — but

he has not given up the fight

Jet joins lowfare battle...With IndiGo and SpiceJet takingaway passenger share at homeand abroad

MAKS putsRussia on topThis year’s Moscow Air Showfirmly put Russia on the map ofglobal aviation majors

The Praful PatelyearsPP established milestones that haveacted as catalysts for the Indianairline industry

CRUISING HEIGHTS

FIREWALKERS INCAs fuel prices touch the stratosphere, airlines owners get edgy. It’s like walking onhot coals: they are cutting costs, dropping routes and wondering what to do next

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INDIAN SUMMER� GOAIR’S JEH WADIA � INDIGO’S RAHUL BHATIA � AIRASIA’S TONY FERNANDES

INDIAN CARRIERS, WITH A MASSIVE DOSE OF HELP FROM MALAYSIA CREATE, A “FRENZY” AT THE PARIS AIR SHOW BY ORDERING A WHOPPING 452 PLANES — ALL FROM AIRBUS.

IT IS TIME AERA NOTICED THE EXISTENCE OF AIR CARGO

t. Ltd.

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ONCE RESPECTED THE WORLD OVER, AIR INDIA’S MAHARAJA IS ALL BUT READY TO THROW IN THE TOWEL. AMIDSTREPORTS OF ITS DEMAND FOR MORE FUNDS, A LAST-DITCHEFFORT IS BEING MADE TO REVIVE THE AILING GIANT

CRUISING HEIGHTSAugust 2011 � ` 90

DOMESTIC CARRIERS MUST CORRECT COURSE TO WIPE OUT THE RED INK

Juhu refuses to take offEven with the green signal toexpand, Mumbai’s Juhu airportstill cannot accommodate traffic

Dreamlinershows its wingsBoeing’s 787 makes awhistlestop tour of India wowingthose invited to fly in it

Tough times forcargo carriersWhile multinationals TNT and FedExare expanding services, Indianstartups face financial obstacles

PLEASE, I WANTSOME MORE

THE MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS (MHA) hasstarted an ambitious multi-crore crime and crim-inal tracking system (CCTNS) as a pilot projectin Assam, Kerala and Uttar Pradesh. This isonly a trial run where it will use the software inthe states to connect allthe police stations and en-able the police to trackcriminals in real time.Presently, all data on ter-rorists and criminals is as-sembled manually andpiled up in files that areimpracticable to track.This has proved to be themain impediment in track-ing criminals and terroristsfor law-enforcement agencies. Anall-India tracking system to share in-formation seamlessly on a real-timebasis was planned by the MHA and the projectgained considerable momentum after the 26/11

Mumbai terror attack. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB),

the nodal agency for the CCTNS, is overseeingthe pilot phase in the three states. Price Wa-terhouse Coopers will carry out the audit of the

pilot phase. Other checkson safety and quality willalso be carried out duringthe pilot phase. IT majorfirms such as Wipro Tech-nologies, Tata Consul-tancy Service and NIITTechnologies are amongthe six major companiesthat have come forwardto be the state-designatedagency for developing the

user-interface for the ambitious proj-ect. Information on any case, right

from an offence being registered to itsinvestigation and prosecution will be availableon a secure network at the click of a button.

October 2011

CRORE RUPEESFOR NEW

TRAINER JETS

THE DEAL for acquiringthe 75 Swiss Pilatus PC-7turbo basic trainers is inthe final stages now withthe “note” prepared forthe Cabinet Committee onSecurity being “vetted” bythe Finance Ministry. Thecontract for 126 MediumMulti-Role Combat Air-craft (MMRCA) is likely tobe inked only by January-February and the trainerdeal is likely to be signedthis year itself. At present,the Indian Air Force’s(IAF) young pilots aregrappling with 114 ageingpiston-engined HPT-32sand 137 Kiran-I and II air-craft. Approximately, 40per cent of the over 1,000crashes recorded in theIAF since 1970 have beenattributed to “human error(air crew)”. The necessityfor new aircraft is espe-cially urgent, since theHPT-32s, which for longserved as the basic train-ers for its rookie pilots,have been groundedsince August 2009. ThePilatus trainers willreplace the HPT-32s toprovide initial training torookie pilots. The finalrequirement for the basictrainers could touch 200,with Hindustan Aeronau-tics Ltd (HAL) making abulk of them.

NUMBERSGAME

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THE FIGURE stood at5,274 till the end of Julythis year. The maximumretirements took place inBSF, followed by CRPFand Assam Rifles.According to Minister ofState for Home AffairsJitendra Singh, Yogaclasses were one of themeasures introduced bythe government to checkvoluntary retirementfrom paramilitary forces.The minister said the

government had also ordered regular interaction, bothformal and informal, among commanders, officers andtroops of these paramilitary forces. A transparent leavepolicy had been implemented and grievances redressalmachinery had been revamped. 6,897 voluntary retire-ments took place in 2008 from six paramilitary forces:Assam Rifles, Border Security Force (BSF), Central Indus-trial Security Force (CISF), Central Reserve Police Force(CRPF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) and SashastraSena Bal (SSB).

2,000 2,900CRORE RUPEES FOR TERRORIST-TRACKING SYSTEM

10,982

www.geopolitics.in

(40)

PARAMILITARY JAWANSRETIRED VOLUNTARILY IN 2010

70 NEW ANTI-NAXAL CRPFBATTALIONS

THE CENTRAL Reserve Police Force(CRPF) has created 70 exclusive bat-talions for counter-insurgency andNaxal operations which will be insu-lated from regular law and order du-ties performed by the force. Thiscomes over a year after the deadlyDantewada Maoist ambush. The cre-ation of two distinct units, one forundertaking operations and theother for performing duties like con-duct of polls, etc, was recommendedin the aftermath of the Dantewadaattack.

DELHI POLICE now have more than 83,000personnel to carry out policing jobs in the cap-ital after the latest induction on September 21,2011. Of the 6,608 new entrants, 685 will un-dergo advanced commando training with theCRPF and the BSF.All the constablesinducted have under-gone preliminarycommando training.According to seniorpolice officials, thefresh inductions willease pressure on po-lice and would beused for policing theground level. This isthe largest inductionin the force. Last year on August 31, Delhi Po-lice had inducted 5,697 new constables, includ-ing 351 women. Of the 685 personnel selectedfor advanced commando training, 25 are

women constables. The women will head to theCRPF training centre in Neemech while themen contingent will go to Tekhenpur. The per-sonnel will be given training in crime investi-gation, forensic analysis, cyber crime and

economic offencesbesides in law andother subjects. Con-stables will also betrained on the .303rifles, .38 revolvers,9 mm pistols, AK-47, SAF and SLR.Modern techniquesfor their traininglike use of FireArms Training Sim-ulators will be ex-

haustively used during their firing practice. Forthe first time, the women constables will alsobe given specialised training in unarmed com-bat, motorcycle-riding, and rescue operations.


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THE APPLICATIONS for industrial licences inthe defence sector, including those from topprivate firms, have been pending since 2008, asthe Department of Defence Production hasdragged its feet on recommending licences toprivate firms for manufacture of equipment forthe sector.

Concerned over the wait, the Department ofIndustrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) haswritten to the Cabinet Secretary saying it ishurting the defence sector and proving to be ahuge obstacle in the government’s efforts toreduce dependence on import of defence

equipment. According tothe DIPP, there was a con-flict of interest as defence

PSUs, which manufac-ture defence equip-ment, report to the

same production depart-ment. Now the DIPPhas proposed that theprocess of review ofdefence sector industri-al licences be handedover to the DefenceMinistry to provide alevel playing field andeliminate the delays.

FIRMS LINE UPFOR DEFENCELICENCES

6,608 COPS INDUCTED IN DELHI POLICE

IAF CHOPPERSFOR ANTI-NAXAL OPS

THE INDIAN Air force (IAF)will deploy two more heli-copters for logistical supportin the ongoing anti-Naxaloperations. The new helicop-ters will join the IAF’s twoMi-17s and two Dhruvsoperating in Chhattisgarharmed with “sidewardmounted machine guns” tofire back in “self-defence” ifthey come under attack fromMaoists. Both governmentand IAF have maintainedthat there will be no “offen-sive air operations” againstNaxals. Stringent rules ofengagement have been putin place in case the helicop-ters come under attack,although the IAF does notneed permission to act inself-defence. The IAF’sGarud commandos on boardthe helicopters can open fireonly if they come underattack while undertakingtheir logistical, reconnais-sance and casualty evacua-tion duties. The IAF helicop-ters can only use their side-ward mounted machine gunsin retaliation, not heavierfirepower such as rockets,bombs or missiles. The IAFinitiated steps to strengthenthe security of its helicopterafter a flight engineer waskilled in a Naxal attackagainst an Mi-8 helicopterengaged in election duty dur-ing the Chhattisgarh polls in2008.

649 2CHINESE CHOPPERSINTRUDED INTO

INDIA IN AUGUSTTHE HELICOPTERS, along with seven toeight troopers, flew into Indian territoryalong the Line of Actual Control (LAC) inChumur area of Ladakh region of Jammuand Kashmir and damaged “unusedbunkers” on Indian territory, before fly-ing back undetected and unchallenged.

This information was stated in a reportsent by Leh district administration to theJammu & Kashmir government. The ITBPpersonnel, who were some distanceaway, could not react because of the dis-tance and they are reported to havewatched the incident, with the help ofbinoculars.


gGEOPO L I T I C S

gSPECIALREPORT

October 2011

THE MiG-21, the backbone ofIndian Air Force (IAF), is in theprocess of being phased out. Itwill be replaced by the LightCombat Aircraft (LCA), the

Medium-Multi-Role Combat Aircraft(MMRCA) and the Sukhoi-30 MKI.According to the Minister of State forDefence, Pallam Raju, “MiG-21s will getphased out by 2015-16. I think the last ofthe squadrons of the aircraft will bephased out by 2017.” The process ofbeing phased out has begun and it isbelieved two more squadrons of theMiG-21 will be removed from active serv-ice from next year.

In the last 40 years, the much-maligned MiG-21 has been associatedwith many a first for the IAF. But, of late,this fighter, that pilots swear by as a greataircraft to fly has been labelled a ‘FlyingCoffin’ for its very high rate of accidents.The IAF has lost approximately 476 aircraft due to accidents, out of the 946

inducted from the 1960s to the 1980s. Thehigh rate of accidents has been ascribedto many different reasons - ranging fromhuman error to technical snags.

Today, as the aircraft goes through theprocess of being phased out, it is time tolook back and see whether the plane hasachieved what it was inducted for. It istime we see MiG-21 from the pilot’s per-spective. Numbers and data alone cannotaccount for every one of the many dimen-sions of events as they unfold. All aspectsof something as complex as flying fighterscan’t be illustrated through statistics.

The MiG-21 is by far the most pro-duced supersonic aircraft in the world.This aircraft was produced by the RussianMiG Corporation as a supersonic inter-ceptor aircraft. A very light and agilefighter equipped with missiles to shootdown enemy aircraft was a ground-break-ing concept for its era. Says noted aviatorAir Vice Marshal Kapil Kak: “Now we arein the fiftieth year of MiG-21 service in

IAF. We need to understand the larger pic-ture around which this aircraft wasinducted.”

The defeat at the hands of Chinese inthe 1962 war was a watershed momentfor the Indian military services and themilitary planners. The Air Force was notemployed during the war and the merit ofthat decision has been contested sincethen. Air Vice Marshal Kak believes, “In1962 we didn’t use the Air Force and it wasa political decision. Had we used it, wemight have still lost the war, but maybenot so humiliatingly.”

This was the time when the MiG-21arrived on the IAF’s horizon. Till then,India had been using Western aircraft, thebulk of which were British Canberras,Hunters, and French Mysteres. Theorganisation of the armed forces wasbased on British pattern and the air forcewas comfortable with western airplanes.

At that time India decided to buy newaircraft to fight the American F-104

Lambasted by the media as the ‘Flying Coffin’ for its dismally high rate of accidents, the MiG-21 was an able combat platform in its prime, but needs to be phased out now.

ROHIT SRIVASTAVA spells out the significant moments in the service of the MiG-21 with IAF

FAREWELL TO ANAVIATION LEGEND

October 2011

gSPECIALREPORT

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Starfighter supersonic fighters which thePakistani Air Force had. There was a seri-ous need to upgrade the IAF to cope withthese potent challenges.

After the 1962 war with China, Indiawas given a large amount of weapons byWestern nations like US and UK. TheAmericans also agreed to give F-104 andF-4 Phantoms to India, but this was not tobe. According to Air Vice Marshal Kak, “Atthat stage we had no choice, especiallywhen we had neighbours with F-104supersonic aircraft. By then, even theChinese began to get MiG-21s.”

Air Vice Marshal Kak furtherinforms,”The first proposal that came toIndia was from USSR after the 1962 warand by 1963 people began going to theUSSR for training. This induction was inthe face of opposition of politicians whopreferred US or UK aircraft. But VKMenon, then Defence Minister, insistedthat it was good to have a supplier whowas reliable.”

It is worth mentioning that this was aperiod of insecurity and the nation wasunder immense geo-strategic stress. Thepeace after 1962 lasted between November20, 1962, when ceasefire was declared afterthe Indo-China War and April 1965. By thistime Pakistan has begun infiltrating intoKutch, which led to Indo-Pak War of 1965.

From 1963 to 1965, we had inductedvery few MiG-21s and, therefore, theywere used very little in the Indo Pak war of1965. The Indian Air Force had mixedresults during this war. In spite of an ene-my armed with superior fighters, the IAF

pilots and crew displayed exceptional skilland met with success. This was the timewhen the induction of the MiG-21 wasaccelerated. By 1971, the MiG-21s werefully operational with the IAF. Along withthe MiG-21s, the British Gnats and theHAL’s HF-24 Maruts were the main air-craft of IAF. In the 1971 war with Pakistan,the MiG-21 performed exceptionally andone even struck the Governor’s House inDhaka, which played a significant role inPakistan’s decision to surrender.

THE MIG-21 AS A FIGHTERThe MiG-21 was the first supersonic air-craft in the real sense of the word. A verylight and agile fighter, that can touch atop speed of Mach 2, i.e. twice the speedof sound, was most suitable for airdefence or interception role. To interceptany incoming enemy aircraft, an inter-ceptor has to be faster than the intruderand should be light enough to do difficultmaneuvers to shoot down the enemy. Tothis end, the design of the MiG-21 was

ground breaking. This aircraft is so welldesigned that even today it is flying withthe IAF, Chinese and Pakistan Air Force(PAF). The Chinese version of MiG-21 iscalled J-7 and PAF calls it the F-7.

Speaking to Geopolitics, noted analystWing Commander Praful Bakshi, who hasflown a number of sorties on the MiG-21says, “It was fun to fly MiG-21. It had avery high rate climb and was very goodturning performance. It was not consid-ered as a very safe aircraft for young

pilots. The high speedat which it fliesrequires very defthandling.”

One of the mostdifficult parts of flying

this machine is considered to be its land-ing. This is where a large number of acci-dents have taken place. The rate ofdescent of the MiG-21 is 360 km/hr,which is almost double that of any otheraircraft. If anything goes wrong at thisspeed, the reaction time available to thepilot is half that of most other aircraft.Under such pressure, the chances of thepilot being unable to follow standard pro-cedure for recovery, is very real.

In its day the MiG-21 was consideredto be better than US-made F-4 Phantoms,and more maneuverable than it, but itcarried a lesser payload. The limited pay-load of the MiG-21 was one of the greatestshortcomings of the aircraft. To add that,it was also a fuel guzzler.

Being the first supersonic aircraft inthe IAF ‘s inventory, the MiG-21 was ageneration ahead of the contemporaryfighters in the fleet like the Mysteres,Hunters and Gnats, which were subsonicand would cross the sound barrier only ina shallow dive --while diving at full speed.

Wing Commander Bakshi informedGeopolitics: “Being a delta wing aircraft,the MiGs could sustain the high rate ofturn and slow speed handling in combat.It took a lot of life in high speed superstall, a peculiarity of this aircraft.” Superstall is a phenomenon in which an aircraftstarts to descend when the speed crossesa certain limit. Instead of lift, the aircraftexperiences a fall. This is very dangerous,as recovery is almost impossible.

Another first associated with the MiG-21 in India is its night-fighting capability.At the time of induction, it was the onlyIAF aircraft capable of night fighting, withits onboard radar. The radar would helpto launch heat-seeking missiles at a rangeof four to five kilometers to intercept the


MIXED FORTUNES: Often criticised asan unforgiving aircraft, the MiG-21nevertheless had an illustrious inningswith the Indian Air Force

THE MIG-21 WASEXCEPTIONAL IN

THE ‘71 WAR,WITH ONE EVEN

HITTING THEGOVERNOR’S

HOUSE IN DHAKA

enemy. With this, the IAF became apotent air force which could thwart anyenemy misadventure at night.

THE MAN-MACHINE BONDTalking about his own attachment to theMiG-21, Air Marshal PK Barbora, formerVice Chief of Air Staff said, “The firstoperational squadron that I joined wasMiG-21 in Tejpur and the last aircraft thatI flew was also the MiG-21.” He also toldus that the aircraft was designed to inter-cept the American U2 reconnaissanceaircraft by the USSR. The MiG-21s werehigh-flying supersonic interceptorswhich were needed to intercept the U2,which flew at extremely high altitudes.

The MiG-21 was a flexible platform.The IAF added a gun to the aircraft andconverted it into a kind of multirole fight-er. Initially, after its two missiles were usedin dogfights, the aircraft didn’t have any-thing to intercept enemy aircraft. To fillthis deficiency, a gun was added. Thismade the MiG-21s capable of close com-bat. Its pilots believe that though the highspeed and high rate of climb were veryhandy in running away from any dogfight,the high speed was also a disadvantage inslow dogfights. The aircraft were requiredto be very stable at low speeds. The highspeed was of no use in making a kill.

This was considered one of the short-comings of this aircraft, thanks to its deltadesign wings. Air Marshal Barbora, felt, “Agood pilot could turn at a very low speed.It required very good handling. IAF addedpods and rockets in the aircraft when theneed for it was felt.” He also said, “Overthe years we started to evaluate the MiG-21 more closely than Russia. We started toexploit the aircraft more in its completeoperation envelope. We had to do so, asby 1980s we knew we were not going toget new aircraft.” The MiG-21 was themost unsuitable aircraft for training pur-pose, yet we used them for training, as theIAF’s demand for an advanced jet trainerwas not met. The cheapest aircraft avail-able to India was the MiG-21. But due toits high-speed profile, the MiG-21required more experience to fly.

In the 1970s, India bought the BritishJaguars for strike purposes with Indiannuclear weapons in mind. We were

reactive in our procurement. After Pak-istan purchased the F-16s, the IAF askedfor something to counter it, and thenbought the MiG-29s from Russia. To beefup its ground-attack capabilities, Indiasubsequently bought MiG-23s, MiG-25s,and MiG-27s. During all these years, theIAF stuck with the MiG-21s because wewanted to maintain parity in numbersand we did not have a subsonic trainer.The IAF continued to carry on with MiG-21 as long as their airframe life permitted.

The era of Russian aircraft in the Indi-an Air Force was based upon the experi-ence of flying the MiG-21. This played avery important role in forming a combataircraft relation with Russia. The Indianprocurement from Russia from ‘61onwards, for thirty years, was based onthis aircraft. This dependence lasted tillwe bought the Jaguar and Mirage-2000.Said Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak: “We werenot only inducting MiG-21 derivativesbut overcoming its limitations. We alsoexploited all its types for our use. We usedType 77 for training and Type 75 Bis asmultirole aircraft.”

From 1991-92, India began upgradingthe T-75 Bis. The upgradation was donewith French, Israeli and Russian help. TheBis were upgraded to the Mirage-2000performance level and the upgraded air-craft was called the Bison. 120 aircraftwere upgraded to the Bison standard.

In spite of its benefits the MiG-21 dealwas a blow to the indeginisation of aircraftmanufacturing. It brought along withitself the concept of license manufactur-ing. India and HAL became addicted tolicense manufacturing, and design anddevelopment, took a back seat. Air ViceMarshal Kapil Kak reasoned, “Operationalrequirements forced us to induct theseaircraft and do license manufacturing.There was no time and we had no choice.”

In retrospect, the aircraft strengthenedthe pilot’s capability. It was an unforgiv-ing aircraft but it taught operational les-sons to the pilots of the 1960s and 1970s.These lessons came handy to pilots whograduated to other aircraft.


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gSPECIALREPORT

g

SlNo Date Place Killed/

Ejected

2005

1 4-Jan-05 Nal Bikaner Ejected

2 8-Mar-05 Nal Bikaner Killed

3 26-Oct-05 Bangalore Killed

4 13-Dec-05 Tezpur Ejected

2006

1 17-Jan-06 Jamnagar Ejected

2 21-Mar-06 Utterlai Killed

2007

1 1-Mar-07 Shibkhola Killed

2 22-May-07 Jammu Killed

2008

1 15-Feb-08 Bhuj Ejected

2 23-May-08 Bagdogra Ejected

3 12-Nov-08 Chabua Ejected

2009

1 27-May-09 Jodhpur Ejected

2 18-Jun-09 Chabua Ejected

3 10-Sep-09 Bhatinda Killed

2010

1 19-Feb-10 Bagdogra Ejected

2 15-Jun-10 Raikot Ejected

2011

1 6-Sep-11 Ambala Ejected

2 2-Aug-11 Nal Airbase Killed

MIG-21 ACCIDENTS FROM 2005

ACE INTERCEPTOR: The first supersonic aircraft in the IAF’s inventory, the MiG-21 was a generation ahead of fighters like theMystere, Hunter and Gnat

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INS HANSA CELEBRATESGOLDEN JUBILEE

THE ARMED FORCES and Comptroller & Auditor General ofIndia (CAG) are at loggerheads over the auditing of the 4,500 unit-run canteens which have an annual turnover of ̀ 10,000 crore. Ac-cording to the Pioneer newspaper, the Chiefs ofthe Army, Air Force and Navy have refused tocomply with the direction of the Defence Secre-tary to permit CAG to audit the unit canteens.

The Secretary had conveyed the direction of Defence Minister AK Antony, who had receiveda complaint from CAG on the denial of audit byArmy Headquarters. “Since no headway hasbeen made in this regard, CAG has written to theRaksha Mantri (RM) on this issue and has re-quested his intervention for providing audit par-ties access to unit-run canteens (URC) as early aspossible,” noted the Defence Secretary’s letter tothe three service chiefs, marked ‘secret’.

“It has been observed by CAG that consider-ing the facts that URCs are located in government premises, arerun in most cases by service personnel, use government transportand, most importantly, receive substantial funds from the Consolidated Fund of India, such denial violates provisions of theConstitution of India regarding the powers and duties of CAG,”it added.

“It is, therefore, requested that necessary instructions may kind-ly be given to the concerned for allowing audit personnel to ac-cess information from the URCs under their control so that RM

is apprised of them,” the Defence Secretary wrote.For the past two years CAG and armed forces have

locked horns over the auditing of unit-run canteens. InIndia, the forces’ supply system is managed by 34 de-pots of Canteen Stores Department (CSD), which is dis-tributed to 160 lakh end-users through more than 4500canteens, controlled by each unit. The unit-run canteenswould take a margin at an average of four per cent onthe supply and the profit is expected to be around ̀ 500crore annually. Though CAG got access to audit the 34CSDs, the armed forces objected to the auditors whenthey demanded to check the accounts of unit-run can-teens, where the actual sales take place.

The forces get the money from the Consolidated Fundof India and enjoy quantitative discounts approved by

the government, apart from the avoidance of taxes on most of thesupplied items. CAG has argued that as the fund is made avail-able from the Consolidated Funds, it has the right to audit, where-as the armed forces claim that the affairs of the unit-run canteensare purely private ventures of each unit and hence do not requireauditing.

FORCES, CAG LOCK HORNS OVER AUDIT

PERISCOPE

ARMY FIGHTING FIT, NOTOUT OF SHAPE

NONE OF the participants in a survey that seemed toindicate a worrying lack of fitness in military personnel were from the Army, says a statement issuedby Army Headquarters. The statement was issued in response to a Times of India report, 'Unfit Army? Sur-vey finds 30 per cent overweight’, published on Sep-tember 5, 2011.

“It may be noted that adequate focus is laid on the upkeep of physical fitness standards in the Army.Physical fitness schedules exist and are strictly practisedby all ranks in letter and spirit,” said the statement.

The survey, conducted by the Ministry and the National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad, had covereddefence personnel and it is quite probable that it didnot include any soldiers from the Army itself.

INS HANSA, Indian Navy’s premier Air Station and fighter train-ing squadron INAS 551 celebrated its golden jubilee on Septem-ber 5, 11, on completion of 50 years of distinguished service tothe nation.

INS Hansa is the largest air base of the Indian Navy operatingseven different types of aircraft. Its aircrew flies a wide variety ofcomplex helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, many of which areamongst the most advanced in the world

It is the abode of the Indian Navy’s frontline air squadrons.These include INAS 300 ‘White Tigers’ with the Sea Harrier fight-ers and others including ‘Black Panthers’, with the latest induc-tion, the state-of-the-art MiG 29K carrier-based fighter.

The naval base saw its first operational deployment during‘Operation Vijay’ in 1961, which resulted in the successful libera-tion of Goa. In addition to military flying INS Hansa proactivelysupports air traffic management operations of more than 11,000international, national and civil chartered flights every year. Thishas helped promote tourism and boosted the local economy.



gg

THE UNITED STATES has des-ignated the Indian Mujahideen(IM) as a Foreign TerroristOrganisation (FTO) under Sec-tion 219 of the Immigration andNationality Act and as a Special-ly Designated Global Terroristunder Section 1(b) of ExecutiveOrder 13224.

An India-based terrorist groupwith significant links to Pakistan,IM is responsible for dozens ofbomb attacks throughout Indiasince 2005, and has caused thedeaths of hundreds of innocentcivilians. IM maintains close tieswith other US-designated terroristentities including Pakistan-based

Lashkar e-Tayyiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM) and Harakat-ul-Jihad-i-Islami (HUJI).

IM’s stated goal is to carry outterrorist actions against non-Mus-lims in furtherance of its ultimateobjective — an Islamic Caliphate— across South Asia.

IM’s primary method of attackis multiple coordinated bombingsin crowded areas against eco-nomic and civilian targets tomaximise terror and casualties. In2010, IM carried out the bombingof the popular German Bakery inPune, frequented by tourists,killing 17 and injuring over 60people. In 2008, an IM attack inDelhi killed 30 people. Also in2008, IM was responsible for 16synchronised bomb blasts incrowded urban centres and alocal hospital that killed 38 andinjured more than 100 in Ahmed-abad. IM also played a facilita-tive role in the 2008 Mumbaiattack carried out by LeT thatkilled 163 people, including sixAmericans.

THE INDIGENOUS Saras aircraft, whose track record wasblemished by a 2009 crash, killing three Indian Air Force per-sonnel, will now be used to train rookie IAF pilots on flyingcargo aircraft.

The IAF has signed up with National Aerospace Laborato-ries, Bengaluru, for the purchase of 15 Saras aircraft. The Kan-pur unit of Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd will manufacturethese planes.

The indigenous aircraft faced a major setback on March 6,2009, when it crashed near Bengaluru killing two test pilotsand a flight engineer. Scientists have approached the Centrefor Military Airworthiness and Certification and DirectorGeneral of Air Quality Assurance under the Defence Ministryfor certification as per US Federal Aviation Administration-23standards. The certification process would take 18 months.

The second improved prototype of Saras would be ready inthe third quarter of 2012 and the first production specifica-tion aircraft (PSA-1) would be ready by 2014 end.

INDIA AND Sri Lanka kicked off theirfirst major naval combat exercise insix years on September 19, with 16warships off Trincomalee as part ofNew Delhi’s continuing intensive diplo-matic and military engagement withColombo despite protests from someTamil groups in the island nation.

The six-day exercise called “SLINEX-11” near the north-east coastof Sri Lanka had six Indian warshipsled by eastern fleet commander RearAdmiral HCS Bisht, including thespanking new stealth frigate INS Shiv-alik, a Rajput-class destroyer and amissile corvette, participating in thecombat manoeuvres. Sri Lankan navydeployed two large off-shore patrolvessels, one fast-missile vessel, twofast-gun boats and six fast-attack craftfor the exercise to boost “interoperabil-ity” between the two forces. The lastnaval exercise with Sri Lanka washeld in 2005.

India’s strategy to provide armsand military training, coupled with

intelligence sharing and ‘coordinated’naval patrolling, undertaken evenwhen the Sri Lankan forces were bat-tling the LTTE, has been primarilyaimed to counter the ever-growingstrategic inroads into the island nationby both China and Pakistan.

Indian Navy in recent times hasundertaken hydrographic surveysand salvage operations for Sri Lan-ka. Over the last several years, Indiahas also trained thousands of SriLankan personnel at its military insti-tutions ranging from the Counter-insurgency and Jungle WarfareSchool at Vairengte (Mizoram) toSchool of Artillery at Devlali (Maha-rashtra), apart from providing spe-cialised naval courses in gunnery,navigation, communication and anti-submarine warfare.

Incidentally, India recently inked a`300-crore contract with a Sri Lanka-based ship manufacturer, SOLASMarine, to build 80 fast-interceptioncraft or high-speed patrol boats.

US declares IM a Terrorist Organisation

SARAS for Air Force’strainee pilots

INDO-LANKA JOINT EXERCISE

gGEOPO L I T I C S

gCOVERSTORY

October 2011

(48)www.geopolitics.inwww.geopolitics.in

Despite the politicalfallout from the

Fukushima Daiichidisaster in Japan, nuclear

energy is not asdangerous, expensive and

unfit for use as is beingmade out by critics, argues SAURAV JHA

ENERGY FOR ALL: India is still bettingon nuclear power to provide a substantialportion of its future energy needs

NECESSITY FOR INDIANECESSITY FOR INDIA

A MATTER OFA MATTER OF

India is going through strange andturbulent times, as all symbols ofcentralised development are beingcalled into question even as Indiadesperately seeks to bridge the infra-

structure deficit that shaves of a few per-centage points from its economic growthrate. There is, of course, no greater deficitthan the huge gap between demand andsupply of reliable electrical power. A gap,that nuclear energy along with otherrenewables is expected to fill in a non-greenhouse gas-emitting manner. Howev-er, post-Fukushima, nuclear power seemsto have emerged as a rather visible targetfor assorted rabble-rousers and scare-mongers to grind their ‘developmentgrouse’ with. Indeed the protests aroundKudankulam that unfolded rather sudden-ly are a testimony to the same. But howjustified are these criticisms and fears? Isnuclear power safe and what does it meanfor India?

HOW WORRIED SHOULD INDIA BE?The Fukushima incident has certainly pro-vided a fillip to naysayers of nuclear powerin India. Their opinions now range frompure propaganda (tens of workers dead,thousands affected by radiation) to moreinformed views bringing into questionmatters such as site selection and technol-ogy choice.

The main question that naturally comesto mind is whether Indian reactors arelocated in seismically-active zones or not.Well, with the exception of the NaroraAtomic Power Station (NAPS), all Indiannuclear power stations are built in Zone 2(low seismic activity), unlike Japanesereactors, which are in Zone 4 and 5 (highseismic activity). NAPS is, however, locat-ed in Zone 3. Nevertheless, in a testamentto the building standards of Indian reac-tors, it ought to be remembered thatKakrapar Atomic Power Station remainedoperational even after it experienced the

Gujarat earthquake of 2001, which meas-ured 7.7 on the Richter scale and providedmuch-needed electricity to aid the subse-quent relief efforts.

It is also important to keep in mind thatremoval of decay heat is a problem that hasoccupied the minds of reactor designersfor over three generations now, with theIndian nuclear community being noexception. The dominant Indian reactortype as of today is the Indian pressurisedheavy water reactor or (Indian PressurisedHeavy Water Reactors) IPHWR, the averageage of which is less than 20 years. Researchon this type has been consistent and anumber of safety improvements have beenbrought in over the years. IPHWRs consistof the two-reactor shutdown systems, oneof which uses control rods and the otherconsists of a liquid poison injection sys-tem. This combination guarantees that thechain reaction is shut down rapidly in theevent of a major earthquake.

However, like Fukushima, subsequentto the chain reaction shutdown, there willbe a need to remove the decay heat. Andlike Fukushima, where the primary cool-ing system failed due to unavailability ofgrid power, IPHWRs will also use activeauxiliary systems such as the RHR (Resid-ual Heat Removal) and ECCS (EmergencyCore-Cooling System) to do the job. TheECCS in IPHWRs is triple redundant, con-sisting of a high pressure coolant injectionsystem, a pool of light water maintained inthe calandria (a low pressure tank) hous-ing the core, and a suppression pool. Nev-ertheless, the RHR in Indian reactors isalso an electrically-powered system andmay itself be unavailable on a sustainedbasis due to the unforeseen breakdown ofback-up systems such as diesel genera-tors, as evidenced by Fukushima. Subse-quently, the ECCS may also fail dueto a Fukushima-like power black-out conditions. In such aneventuality, IPHWRs rely

on a passive decay heat removal systembased on the ‘thermosiphon effect’, whichexploits the elevation difference betweenthe steam generators and the reactor core.

Interestingly, the thermosiphon effectproved its efficacy in the NAPS fire incidentof 1993, which was characterised as anINES level-3 incident by the IAEA (Interna-tional Atomic Energy Agency) and involvedthe loss of power supply to the reactors in amanner similar to what happened atFukushima. India has also retrofitted Tara-pur I and II — which are BWRs of the samevintage and type as the units at Fukushima— with emergency condensers that wouldallow the thermosiphon effect to be usedin the event of a complete blackout.Greater redundancy also seems to havebeen built into Indian reactors by station-ing an additional diesel generator, an addi-tional air compressor and two fire waterpumps over the maximum anticipated lev-el of flooding. This generator could proveuseful in both powering the RHR andpumping fire water into the steam genera-tors in a situation where the other genera-tors are washed away, as was the case inFukushima. Indeed, there is now a case forhaving more such installations and areview of the height at which this is done,considering that Fukushima was hit byforty-five-foot-high waves. In fact, the ele-vated stationing of diesel generatorsproved rather useful in shutting down theMadras Atomic Power Station when it washit by the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004.Readers would note that the reactor wasbrought back online, within a week.

But what about imported reactors beingbuilt in India? Kudankulam was also hit bythe Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004.

www.geopolitics.in


gCOVERSTORY

g

www.geopolitics.in

However, the two Russian-origin reactorsundergoing construction did not face anyproblems with the rising water levels astheir defence in depth features had beenspecifically designed to withstand suchcalamities. All buildings at the plant hadbeen designed to rise from 7.5 m above themean sea level (MSL) to take care of flood-ing due to natural events such as tsunamis,and a shore protection bund rising to aheight of 7.5 m above MSL was built at thesite as an additional measure. Each reactorat this site will have four redundant back-up diesel generators even one of whichwould be enough to power the RHR sys-tem. These back-up generators, will bekept at a height of 9 m above MSL.

The Kudankulam reactors are also

equipped with core melt catchers and arefitted with passive hydrogen re-combinersthat prevent the accumulation of hydro-gen in the containment structure by con-verting it back to water. This means thatthe chance of a hydrogen explosion occur-ring at one of these reactors a la Fukushi-ma is negligible. Most importantly, in theevent of a loss of power to the active decayheat removal systems, large-capacitysteam generators kept at a higher eleva-tion to the core will help cool the reactorthrough the thermosiphon effect. Thesteam generator water itself is cooled by apassive air cooling system, working on theprinciple of natural convection withoutthe need for any electrical power.

Indeed, all imported reactors scheduled

to be built in India (including the ones atKudankulam) are Gen III+ designs and areequipped with passive safety measuresthat cater to the removal of decay heat andare driven by gravitation or convection.These systems allow the operator a muchgreater margin for removal of decay heatthan was available in the case of theFukushima reactors.

THE WILFUL GAINERSEvery crisis brings forth opportunity forsome. But to understand how that mightbe in the case of Fukushima, we must lookat why Japan adopted nuclear power in thefirst place, given that it is an island nationsitting right astride the Pacific ring of fire.Following its defeat in the Second WorldWar, Japan realised that one of the reasonsthat had led it to seek an empire throughthat conflict continued to haunt its indus-trial growth — an acute shortage of nation-al hydrocarbon resources. Ironically,though, the effort to harness nuclear tech-nology for warfare — that had resulted insuch tragic loss for the people of Japan —had also created the means by which itcould alleviate its energy handicap. Andunder Eisenhower’s Atoms for Peace pro-gramme, Japan became an early benefici-ary of American attempts to spread civiliannuclear power throughout the world.

Nuclear energy was clearly a goodoption to power Japan’s post-war econom-ic rise since it could generate electricitycontinuously over a very long period oftime and at very high capacity factors —key features for meeting demand fromenergy-intensive industrial and commer-cial activities. Moreover, nuclear energyalso gave Japan a certain degree of freedomfrom geopolitics. Japan, which till the 1973oil crisis used to generate about 66 per centof its electricity through oil-fired genera-tors, uses the same source for only 11 percent of its requirements today, whilenuclear power supplies 30 per cent ofJapan’s electricity. Nuclear power became astrategic priority and Japan sought to bringthe costs of nuclear construction down bycreating a domestic industry. That initia-tive proved to be so successful that todayJapan is the central hub in the worldwidenuclear supply chain.

For instance, Japan Steel Works sup-plies 80 per cent of the world’s reactorpressure vessel (RPV) market, the keycomponent of the majority of reactors inexistence today. Nuclear power develop-ment also helped Japan’s overall industrialsector by raising the technology base for

October 2011


gCOVERSTORY

g

Rawatbhata, Rajasthan 1 x 100 MW1 x 200 MW4 x 220 MW

Kakrapur, Gujarat2 x 220 MW

Mothi Vrdi,Gujarat6 x 1000 MW

Jaitapur, Maharashtra6 x 1650 MW

Kaiga, Karnataka3 x 220 MW1 x 220 MW

Narora, Uttar Pradesh2x 220 MW

Kovvada, Andhra Pradesh6 x 1000 MW

Kalapakkam,Tamil Nadu2 x 220 MW

Kudankulam,Tamil Nadu2 x 1000 MW4 x 1000 MW

Tarapur, Maharashtra2 x 160 MW2 x 540 MW

Madhya Pradesh2 x 700 MW

Some prominent Nuclear Power plants in India

www.geopolitics.in

manufacturing. In fact, Japan’s templatefor industrialisation became the one tofollow in other parts of East Asia as well.South Korea followed Japan’s nuclear-industrial path and today meets 35 percent of its electricity requirementsthrough nuclear energy. It is no wonder,therefore, that the South Korean govern-ment was quick to re-affirm its commit-ment to nuclear energy in the wake ofFukushima. At a business event in April2011, the South Korean Minister of Knowl-edge Economy clearly stated, "Our answerto the nuclear industry is that we need tokeep going." Importantly, he added, "Partof our manufacturing industry’s competi-tiveness comes from nuclear power,thanks to its cheap energy costs. There-fore, it is hard to give up." In fact, SouthKorea has also emerged as a significantcog in the global nuclear supply chain andhas beaten French and Japanese-Ameri-can rivals to win the 40-billion-dollar UAEcivil nuclear tender in 2010.

China has, of course, powered its low-tech mass manufacturing mega boomthrough coal but now craves to move upthe value chain like Japan and SouthKorea, and also mitigate the very serioushealth effects of that strategy (a WorldHealth Organisation estimate from 2007suggested that over 600,000 Chinese dieprematurely on an annual basis becauseof air pollution). In any case, many ofthose coal plants were rather small tobegin with and are now derelict. The Chi-nese know that if the underdevelopedwestern parts of China have to be openedup while simultaneously moving up thevalue chain in manufacturing, they haveto look beyond coal in this era of climatechange. As with a lot else, the Chinese turnto nuclear is the biggest turn the world hasseen; while anti-nuclear advocates mademuch of China’s decision to suspend newapprovals pending a review, the factremains that China already has thirteennuclear power reactors in operation withmore than twenty-five under constructionand twenty-two more already approved,all of them based on imported Gen IIIdesigns. As Zhang Lijun, vice minister forenvironmental protection, stated in thewake of Fukushima, “China will notchange its determination and plan fordeveloping nuclear power.”

Looking to indigenise its variousimports, China has set up a first of a kind‘nuclear research city’ at Haiyan. By 2012,it also seeks to put in place the highest RPVbuilding capacity. Indeed, this growing

indigenous capability to build large reac-tor components has culminated in its offerof two 1000 MWe reactors to Pakistan. Chi-na, more than anyone else, is poised tobenefit from a downturn in the Japanesenuclear sector. A slackening of nuclearbuild in other Asian countries would leadto China emerging as a prime mover in thenuclear business and allow it to use grabtechnology and nuclear resources on aneven greater scale than it is doing present-ly. Toshiba-Westinghouse, for instance,has already transferred enough know-howto China for the latter to uprate Toshiba-Westinghouse’s signature product, the AP-1000, into the CAP-1400, the first of whichis scheduled to be built in 2013.

If nuclear scaremongering hits Japan’snuclear sector hard or leads to broaderdelays in India due to protests such as theone in Jaitapur, the law of economicswould ensure that nuclear manufacturingultimately moves to China in the sameway that many other industries are nowalmost wholly concentrated in it. This

would allow China in due course of time tohave the most carbon competitive indus-trial sector in the world and possiblyresemble what Japan is in high-end manu-facturing albeit on a much more vast scale.In a world where hydrocarbon resourcesare dwindling and global warming is onthe rise, China via its nuclear sector mayemerge as a net exporter of energy, therebygiving it tremendous geopolitical advan-tage over all those countries that stymietheir own nuclear build programmes dueto populist anger.

Such a situation is particularly unac-ceptable for India, which, having alreadylost out to China in mass manufacturing,can ill-afford to concede to it the hi-techmanufacturing space as well. Even worsewould be if India, that has finite resourcesof high ash content coal and some gasreserves, has to someday import nucleartechnology from China. India’s energysecurity warrants a robust nuclear powersector with a view to exploiting its singlegreatest energy resource: thorium. Indeed,thorium-based nuclear power has thepotential to be much safer than existinguranium-based technologies and Indiahas a clear lead over China in the techno-logical aspects of the same. Nothingstands in the way of India capitalising inthe post-Fukushima scenario in a mannersimilar to what China is doing. If this cen-tury has to be an Indian century, this isone geo-economic race India must win.

(The writer is the author of The UpsideDown Book Of Nuclear Power, published

by HarperCollins)


CHINA IS EMERGING AS A PRIME

MOVER IN THE

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THE ESSENTIAL NUCLEAR MIX: Nuclear power has the potential to propel economicgrowth in India by increasing competiveness with relatively cheap energy costs

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""WWEE HHAAVVEE TTOO FFUULLFFIILL TTHHEE MMAANNDDAATTEETTOOWWAARRDDSS EELLEECCTTRRIIFFYYIINNGG TTHHEE

NNAATTIIOONN""

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(53)October 2011

Are we likely to see a slowdown post-Fukushima?SKJ: Not at all. In fact India is the firstcountry in the democratic world to havebegun constructing new reactors in theaftermath of Fukushima. I am, of course,referring to the first pour of concrete forUnits 7 & 8 that you see here at RajasthanAtomic Power Station (RAPS).

How is NPCIL planning to address thesafety questions thrown up by the expe-rience in Fukushima and will this getreflected in reactor build times andcosts? Will certain new features be retro-fitted into NPCIL’s existing fleet of reac-tors as well?SKJ: As you would know, we have initiat-ed a full-blown safety review for all ourreactors post-Fukushima, the interimreport for which we have already madepublic.

To give your readers an idea of howcomprehensive this safety review is, hereare some details — four task forces wereconstituted, addressing different types ofreactors. Boiling Water Reactors at Tara-pur Atomic Power Station, PressurisedHeavy Water Reactors with dousing andsingle containment at Rajasthan AtomicPower Station, Pressurised Heavy WaterReactors with suppression pool and par-tial double containment at Madras Atom-ic Power Station and, subsequently built,standardised Pressurised Heavy WaterReactors from Narora Atomic Power Sta-tion having double containment, sup-pression pool and calandria filled withheavy water, housed in a water-filledcalandria vault. The stations were askedto inspect all important provisionsrequired to withstand flood and fire acci-dents. The reports of the four task forceshave been discussed in detail by Opera-tions, Design and Safety directoratestogether with the top management atNPCIL HQ. Present review and re-evalua-tion is an interim measure, and is basedon the present understanding of theFukushima event.

The important design features of theIndian NPPs including the boiling waterreactors have provisions to handle com-plete loss of power, differing fromFukushima Daiichi plant. In the contextof scenario at Fukushima, it may berecalled that pertinent incidents at Indiannuclear power plants, like prolonged lossof power supplies at Narora plant in 1993,flood incident at Kakrapara plant in 1994and tsunami at Madras plant in 2004 weremanaged successfully with existing provi-sions. An in-depth safety analysis andreview of these events was carried outand lessons learnt were adequatelyutilised for taking corrective measures inall the operating as well as under con-

struction plants. Similarly, to assess safetyof our reactors in light of internationalevents in nuclear industry such as ThreeMile Island and Chernobyl, detailed inde-pendent safety review of events were con-ducted and key lessons learnt wereimplemented in all plants. Present reviewand re-evaluations conducted indicatethat adequate provisions exist at Indiannuclear power plants to handle stationblackout situation and maintaining con-tinuous cooling of reactor core for decayheat removal. However, to further aug-ment the safety levels and improvedefense in-depth, salient recommenda-tions, which have been made for shortand long-term implementation, are givenbelow:

Automatic reactor shutdown initiationsensing seismic activity Inerting of the TAPS-1&2 containment

Increasing the duration of the passivepower sources/battery operateddevices for monitoring importantparameters for a longer duration Provisions for hook up arrangementsthrough external sources, for addingcooling water inventory to PrimaryHeat Transport (PHT) system, steamgenerators, calandria, calandria vault,end shields and Emergency Core Cool-ing System (ECCS) as applicable andalso the provisions for mobile dieseldriven pumping units Augmentation of water inventory andthe arrangement for transfer of waterfrom the nearby sources if requiredRevision of Emergency Operating Pro-cedures (EOPs) to include additionalprovisions recommended Organise structured training programsto train plant personnel on modifiedEOPs Additional Shore protectionsmeasures at Tarapur Atomic Power Sta-tion and Madras Atomic Power Stationwhich are located on the sea coasts, asdeemed necessary Additional hook up points for makingup water to spent fuel storage poolswherever necessary for ensuring suffi-cient inventoryEssentially, safety upgradation has

been a continuous process at NPCIL andwe have actually been commended onnumerous times by the World AssociationOf Nuclear Operators (WANO) for ourindustry best practices. In a nutshell, I amconfident about the safety of Indian reac-tors.

What is the state of progress on the Jaita-pur project? How does the compensationpackage offered in Jaitapur comparewith that offered on other projects? SKJ: We are still at the pre-project activitystage. Had it not been for the protests youwould have seen considerable physicalprogress at the site by now. Coming to thecompensation package, what we areoffering at Jaitapur is in conformity withour corporate social responsibilities. We

Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) is a Public Sector Enterprise under theadministrative control of the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), Government of India.

Responsible for design, construction, commissioning and operation of nuclear power reactors,NPCIL presently operates 20 nuclear power reactors with an installed capacity of 4780 MW

with four reactors under various stages of construction. DR SK JAIN, Chief Managing Director of the NPCIL, outlines the promises nuclear power holdsfor India in a conversation with SAURAV JHA on the sidelines of first pour of concrete for units

7&8 at Rajasthan Atomic Power Station, Rawatbhatta

INDIAN PLANTS HAVE

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gCOVERSTORY

gare, of course, willing to walk the extramile to increase the welfare of locals.

What is the status of India’s indigenousPHWR programme? How many newreactors are planned in the 700 MWe cat-egory? Are new sites being surveyed forthese?SKJ: The indigenous programme is goingfrom strength to strength. We recentlyachieved first pour of concrete for RAPS7&8, both of which are PHWRs of the new700 MWe breed. These two have them-selves come on the back of Kakrapar 3&4,which began construction over six monthsearlier. Moreover, two more sites inKumaria, Haryana and Mandla, MadhyaPradesh have received in principleapproval for 700 MWe PHWRs. The site atNawada, Bihar, is still under evaluationsince issues with water supply have beenfound over there.

When will Kudankulam 1 & 2 (KNPP 1 &2) see start of commercial operations?What are some of the new safety featuresdesigned for these reactors that make aFukushima type incident unlikely?SKJ: Well, KNPP was scheduled to startcommercial operations by December2011with Unit 2 following in the next sixmonths. These reactors boast of the lat-est active and passive residual heatremoval systems, something that direct-ly addresses the problems faced in com-pletely shutting down the reactors atFukushima Daiichi. For instance, wehave, in addition to electrically poweredsystems, a completely passive heatremoval system based on natural circu-lation of air and twelve boron water-filled tanks that can be used for emer-gency cooldown of the reactor core andthese are purely operated by using gravi-tational principles.

Who is going to benefit from KNPP 1 & 2and is the electricity from these reactorsgoing to be competitive with thermalgeneration?SKJ: Tamil Nadu would be a major bene-ficiary of the project. The state would get925 MWe out of 2,000 MWe to be generat-ed by the two Russian reactors there. Kar-nataka would get 442 MWe, Kerala 266MWe, Puducherry 67 MWe and 300 MWeremains unallocated. The NPCIL wouldsell the electricity generated at Kudanku-lam to State Electricity Boards for `2.50 aunit — which is highly competitive intoday’s scenario!

Has the easing of the international envi-ronment helped NPCIL overcome thefuel mismatch issue that was plaguingits PHWRs? If yes, what are the newsources of fuel that are now available toNPCIL from abroad and how manyindigenous reactors are beneficiaries ofthe same?SKJ: The easing of the international envi-ronment has certainly helped NPCIL getits PHWR fleet back up to speed. Theresults in fact speak for themselves. Ourreactors are back to the high-capacity fac-tors that one had become used to in thelate nineties.

Do new uranium finds such as Tumala-palle bolster India’s fuel security to theextent that India can support a muchlarger first stage (i.e PHWR and LWR)program than previously envisaged?SKJ: One would certainly hope so. But it’searly days yet and we remain committedto operationalising Bhabha’s dream of afull blown three stage program. The Indi-an nuclear establishment firmly believesthat only a closed fuel cycle i.e whichincludes reprocessing, will enablenuclear power in India to fufil its man-date towards electrifying a nation as largeand fast developing as ours.

In fact, on the question of fuel security, itis understood that to have a truly largenuclear programme India has to opera-tionalise the second stage and thirdstages of Bhabha’s three stage program.In that light, could you share with us thestatus of the PFBR? SKJ: As I said, we are fully committed tooperationalising the second and thirdstages of Bhabha’s plan. But as you wouldunderstand, the right neutron economyhas to be arrived at before we can startharnessing the potential of our thoriumreserves. We are nevertheless entering anexciting period in our fast breeder reactorprogramme with the Prototype FastBreeder Reactor (PFBR) at Kalpakkamover two-third complete in physicalterms. The PFBR has a rating of 500 MWeand will herald India’s technologicalcapabilities in the nuclear sector.

Has a site been selected for the AHWR?When are we likely to see constructionactivities for that reactor?SKJ: The site selection is still in process.Although construction activities on the reactor will certainly begin the 12thPlan period.

Could you apprise us about develop-ments in the arena of reactor componentmanufacturing and India’s potential forthe same?SKJ: We are in discussions with a numberof Indian majors in this sphere, who inturn are in discussions with internationalmajors for collaboration. The entire thingis a co-ordinated effort and a few agree-ments are in place already. We are closelyco-operating with companies such asL&T, NTPC and BHEL in this domain. Inthe future we envisage that value wiseour reactors will have a 50:50 ratio interms of domestic and internationalinputs. Naturally, civil works and Balanceof Plant are areas where the Indiandomestic sector is already involved. Inthe next decade we will see them enter-ing the forging and casting side of thingsin a bigger way. However, I would like tosay that we will continue to support indi-genisation to whatever extent is techni-cally feasible and economically viable.

A number of South-East Asian and someAfrican countries had evinced interestfor sourcing small heavy water reactorsfrom India. Also DAE recently unveiledthe AHWR-LEU, which uses a mix of tho-rium-based fuels and enriched uranium.Could you tell us a bit more about thesame and how does India plan to meetthe enrichment requirement? SKJ: Talks are underway for small 220MWe PHWRs with a number of countries.The discussions with Kazakhstan aremaking headway. The new 300 MWeAHWR-LEU design that you mention isindeed being looked at for its exportpotential. As far as the enrichment issue isconcerned, we have the capability to do iton our own and are confident that we canmeet the fuel needs of future customersfor this reactor (AHWR-LEU) as and whenit happens.

India’s re-entry into the world of nucleartrade was expected to be non-discrimi-natory and fully integrative. In this lighthow do you perceive the NSG’s move onENR and do you think this goes againstthe spirit of the ‘clean exemption’ givento India?SKJ: Look, for us it is a matter of principle.We have developed ENR technologies onour own. But we feel that the NSG’s deci-sion is a step back and is not in keepingwith the spirit of full cooperation andthereby the clean waiver that was grantedto us in 2008.

INTERNAL SECURITYgeopolitics

INTELLIGENCEFAILURE?

The Delhi High Court blast is symbolic of the malaise that afflicts

the Indian security agencies and intelligence setups

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B R I E F S

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DESPITE THE Border Security Force's(BSF) repeated requests to its counterpartin Pakistan, Rangers, to work on the de-tails provided by it, Pakistan-basedsmugglers of narcotics and fake Indian cur-rency notes continue to carry out their illdesigns.

Presently about four dozen Pakistanismugglers based in places like Lahore,Narowal, Shekhupura and Kasur are be-lieved to be actively engaged in smugglingof drugs and fake Indian currency notes,a leading national daily has reported aftertalks with highly-placed intelligencesources.

Some of the dreaded smugglers activeon the India-Pakistan border are Rana Badi(Shekhupura), Ishfaq Chaudhary and KaluChairman (Lahore) and Waris Khuni andKali Dogar (Kasur), said sources. They havethe protection of the Pakistan Rangers andare continuously pumping narcotics andfake currency notes into India.

Indian smugglers hire Pakistani courierswho adopt time-tested methods of smug-gling including using pipes and throwingthe smuggled stuff over the fence.

AIRLIFT FOR NAXAL CASUALTIES

PAK OVERLOOKS REQUEST ON SMUGGLERS

CONCERNED OVER the loss of lives ofsecurity personnel in anti-Naxal oper-ations due to delays in evacuation, thegovernment has now ordered the airsupport fleet in such areas to ensurethat there is at least one helicopter forcasualty extraction duty always.

At present, nine helicopters of Indi-an Air Force (IAF) and BSF are de-ployed for duties such as troop dis-patch, rushing reinforcements, trans-porting senior officers, VIPs and takingtroops on leave to and from their out-posts apart from undertaking casualtyevacuation sorties.

More than 150 personnel were killed

last year in these operations while anumber of casualties, according tocommanders deployed on the ground,can be avoided if injured troops couldbe rushed for immediate medical help.

Incidentally, the air-wing of the BSFis also undergoing several changes andrecently the force has notified freshguidelines for recruitment of new pilots.It is being increasingly realised that ahelicopter with night-flying capabilitywill add to the strength of the securityforces fighting the Naxals in the denseforest areas. Moreover, it will also beused in transferring additional troops toa particular region after sunset.

COASTALRADAR NET

ON FAST-TRACK

WITH CHINA working overtimeto extend its influence in theIndian Ocean, India is now givingthe final touches to its plan to setup a coastal radar network alongthe Maldives coast as well asother countries including SriLanka and Mauritius.

The decision to expedite thesetting-up of coastal radars wastaken after Defence Minister AKAntony held recently a high-levelsecurity review meeting overbeefing-up of coastal security.The Navy is also likely to carry outa similar task of enhancing mar-itime security in Bangladesh.

The setting-up of coastalradars is being undertaken at acost of Rs 602 crore as per thecontract with Bharat ElectronicsLimited (BEL). It is understoodthat there are nearly 46 radarsprovided by BEL., the first radarof which will be supplied byOctober this year.

The move has long been seenas an effort to bring Maldives intothe Indian coastal security setup.The island nation has coastalradars on only two of its 26 atolls.India will help set up radars on all26 for seamless coverage ofapproaching vessels and aircraft.

According to officials, thecoastal radar chain in Maldiveswill be networked with the Indiancoastal radar system. The radarchains of the two countries willbe interlinked and a central con-trol room in India's CoastalCommand will get a seamless

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RELIANCE INDUSTRIES has joined hands withSiemens — its first tie-up since establishing a home-land security and aerospace division early this year— to aggressively pursue opportunities in homelandsecurity.

To start with, they will jointly bid to install CCTVcameras across critical traffic junctions in Mumbai,informed sources say. The Mumbai CCTV project,

conceived after the 26/11attack, envisages setting upcomputerised video surveil-lance at 100 critical trafficjunctions in the city. Accord-ing to reports, the key func-tion of this system will be tocollect real-time videos fromdistant cameras and transmitthe footage via an optical fibrenetwork to a control room.

The two companies havesubmitted expression of inter-

est for the project. This alliance could lead to "a jointventure". The understanding seems to be that RILwill be entering overseas markets partnering Siemensin future, though right now, the focus is on India.

RIL launched its homeland security and aerospacebusiness after roping in Vivek Lall, a former NASAscientist who had steered Boeing's military and com-mercial division in India for years. An RIL statementhad then said: "We plan to partner with global lead-ers in this domain to bring the latest technologiesand innovation [to India]."

TIE-UP FOR HOMELAND SECURITY VULNERABLE COASTAL NUCLEARPLANTS IN TAMIL NADU

AMID SECURITY concerns arising out of useof foreign telecom equipment, the Ministryof Home Affairs (MHA) has asked the DoTabout steps taken to strengthen the localmanufacturing facilities.

DoT has already agreed to the view thatlong-term security lies in an increased pro-duction of critical components (hardwareand software) in India. To this end, DoT isto formulate and put non-security measuressuch as incentive regimes in place.

DoT had also agreed to ensure creationof adequate national test bed capabilitieswithin the next two years.

"We shall be grateful if we are apprised ofthe steps taken in this regard," MHS Secre-tary RK Singh has said in a letter to TelecomSecretary R Chandrasekhar. Singh has alsoasked the Telecom Ministry to ensure thatthe operators shall induct only those net-work elements into their telecom networkswhich have been got tested as per relevantcontemporary Indian or international se-curity standards.

Further, the licencee shall keep a recordof all the software updations and changes.The major updation and changes shouldalso be informed to licensor (DoT) within 15

days of completion of such updation andcharges, he said.

DoT had issued guidelines on May 31,this year by amendingthe licence agreementsasking operators to gettheir networks auditedfrom security point ofview once a year from anetwork audit and cer-tification agency.

The licencee shallhave an organisationalpolicy on security man-agements of their net-works and submit thepolicy to licencor within 30 working daysfrom the date of this amendment, the lettersaid.

The operators shall provide location de-tails of mobile customers in the licence serv-ice areas as per time frame specified and toensure that security concerns are ade-quately addressed, Singh said, adding that"DoT is requested to kindly obtain compli-ance report from the licensees" on theabove action points.

MHA FOR STRENGTHENING OF TELECOM MANUFACTURING

AN ARGUMENTbetween state andcentral agenciesseems to be affectingthe patrolling ofwaters near TamilNadu's nuclearpower plants atKalpakkam andKundankulam. Thestate-run CoastalSecurity Group(CSG) says patrollingthe sea near theseplants is theresponsibility of theCentral Industrial Security Force (CISF), while the CISF says theCSG is in charge of the waters.

"Right now, there is no boat patrolling around the IndiraGandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) in Kalpakkam andthe Kudankulam Nuclear Power Project in Tirunelveli district. Itmust be taken care of by the CISF like they do at the SatishDhawan Space Centre at Sriharikota," Superintendent of Police,CSG, H V Mohamed Haneefa told the press recently.

CISF officials argue that sea patrolling is not their job. AtKudankulam Nuclear Power Project (KKNPP) in Tirunelvelidistrict too, there is no sea patrol.

Currently, CSG has 12 marine police stations with 20 boatsacross the state. But there is no marine police station near thenuclear power production units. It is obvious that this lack ofcoordination between agencies will give terrorists advantage,rue many security experts.


gGEOPO L I T I C S

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Originally raised to be the sentinels of the Himalayan frontiers, the Indo-Tibetan BorderPolice has evolved to meet various challenges, including threats to internal security.

ROHIT SRIVASTAVA examines the evolution

INDIAN CENTRAL Police Organisa-tions (CPOs) are going through radi-cal changes and force- augmenta-tion. These expansions are a directresult of the worsening security sce-

nario within the nation. The CPOs’responsibilities have stretched from theirarea of core expertise to cover internalsecurity and insurgency. CPOs, except theCentral Reserve Police, are essentiallyborder-guarding forces. But to managethe internal security situation, border-guarding forces are also engaged in inter-nal security operations.

The Indo-Tibet Border Police is a spe-cialised border-guarding force, whosejurisdiction runs from the reaches of theHimalayas in Ladakh in the north toArunachal Pradesh in the east, with theexception of the Indo-Nepal border. Attimes, the ITBP operates at heights above6000 metres, guarding the Indo-Tibetborder and this is the role that the forcewas primarily structured for. At presentthough, it has battalions deployed in anti-Naxal operations in Nandgaon district ofChhattisgarh and regularly contributes toother internal security policing duties.

The force is now being restructured toincrease efficiency and solve the institu-tional problems emerging from its rapidexpansion. The reorganisation is dividedinto two phases. Phase I covers the periodfrom 2011 to 2013 and Phase II will befrom 2013 to 2015.

Sources suggest that ITBP is increasing

the force strength from the present 55,000to 80,000 men. To provide these men withthe right training and to absorb them inthe force, many changes are required atinstitutional level. The restructuring isbeing done to achieve this objective. Therestructuring will create an additionalfrontier headquarters, two sector head-quarters, 13 battalions, along with addi-tional training centres, institutes, sub-depots and other formations.

One ITBP officer said, “The Ministry ofHome Affairs in the last two years hasdone more work than ever. The requiredapproval, which otherwise would havetaken years, was done in a few months.The impact of this restructuring will befar and wide.”

MAJOR CHANGESThe ITBP will be getting 13 additionalbattalions in the next five years. Toaccommodate this surge in the numberof battalions in the field formation, oneadditional Frontier Headquarters (FHQ)will be raised. The new FHQ is expectedto come up in Bhopal in the Phase I year:2012-13. Subsequently two more SectorHeadquarters (SHQ) will come up in thenext phase in 2013-15. One of the SHQs

RESTRUCTURING FOR FUTURE CHALLENGES

THE NORTHERN SENTINELS: The ITBPis being restructured to increaseefficiency and solve institutionalproblems emerging from its rapidexpansion

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gwill be established at Bhopal and anotherone is expected to come up in southIndia. The location of another SHQ hasnot yet been finalised.

The major change proposed in therestructuring of the ITBP is in the shiftingof the Deputy Inspector General of Police(DIG) post from SHQ to FHQ. After therestructuring, SHQ will lose14 DIG posts.The total increase in DIG posts at FHQ willbe 12. Two DIG posts have been shifted toother establishments. The reason behindthis change is the recommendation by theSixth Pay Commission.

In the earlier setup, each sector hadone post of Additional DIG (ADIG) whowas second-in-command to the SHQDIG. The ADIG post was abolished afterthe Sixth Pay Commission and the ADIGswere given promotion to DIG rank. Thus,each SHQ had two DIGs. To correct thisanomaly, these DIGs were sent to FHQsto look after administration, intelligence,procurements, etc.

Similarly, the battalions are beingrestructured towards uniform companystrength. At present, the battalions havestrengths ranging from four to sevencompanies. After restructuring each bat-talion will have six general duty compa-nies. The general duty companies are thefighting branch of ITBP. The other cadresare medical, signals, etc, which also con-stitute battalions.

All this is going to change the totalstrength of the battalion. The total num-ber of men to be appointed in the nextfour years is somewhere around 25,000.According to sources, the total strength ofeach battalion will be above 1000.

As a result, the posts of the companycommander in the force are going toincrease. The rest of the officer-cadreposts will remain the same. This newstructure of battalion will increase themanpower of battalion with little increasein the resource required. The increase inthe number of company per battalion willprovide the battalion with flexibility inoperations. The battalion generally oper-ates in isolated areas where bringing inreinforcements takes time. With theincrease in number of officers per battal-ion at the time of operation, there will beno dearth of officers. When officers atcompany commander level go on leave,the battalion’s efficiency is affected. Thisincrease in number of company

THE ITBP WILL BE

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commanders in a battalion will providethe commandants with enough officersto take care of any contingencies. Thiswill increase the efficiency of the force,the sources suggested.

The total officer strength post-restruc-turing will be around 3000, 50 per centhigher than the present number of 2000.

The Directorate General’s Headquar-ters is another establishment that hasgone through major changes. Therestructuring sanctioned for the year2011-12 for DG HQ allows an additionalthree posts of IGs, one DIG, six Commanding Officers, two 2I/C (secondin command) 20 Deputy Commandantsand 31 Assistant Commandants. Thethree IG post are Provision, Training andAdministration and Welfare. The post ofPublic Relations Officer has been upgrad-ed to 2I/C from DC.

The year 2011-12 will also see the rais-ing of a counter-insurgency and junglewarfare school (CIJWS), a central weaponstore, three regional training centres(RTCs), and two field arms workshops.The CIJWS is already functioning inMahidanda, Uttaranchal. In addition, theITBP is raising a ‘water wing’. As per oursources, this new unit will be speciallytrained to guard the rivers, and the largenumber of lakes in Arunachal Pradeshand Ladakh.

Pangong Tso Lake in Ladakh, 60 percent of which is under Chinese occupa-tion, is one of the main water bodies,which the ITBP guards. According to

sources, there were incidents in past onthis lake, which is the reason for raisingthe water wing.

Phase I of the reorganisation, spreadacross 2012-13, will see the raising of fourbattalions, one FHQ, one SHQ, one cen-tral training centre, a special weaponsschool, mountain driving school etc. InPhase II nine battalions and two SHQswill be raised.

The new RTCs are being established toprovide training for the increase in forcestrength. The new RTC will be in Kimin(Arunachal Pradesh), Karera (MadhyaPradesh) and Shivganga (Tamil Nadu).

When asked how a force, raised specif-ically to guard Himalayan borders, couldbe trained in low altitude areas, a seniorITBP officer had this to say: “These RTCswill provide the basic training on the linesof Panchkula Training Centre. After basictraining, the jawans will be sent to Auli formountaineering and ski training. Everymountain battalion has mountaineeringtraining facility.”

It remains to be seen how such a largernumber of recruits will be trained with-out a new mountaineering centre. Whenthree new RTCs are required for trainingnew recruits then how come a single cen-tre like Auli can give training for skiing,which is the most essential part of ITBPtraining? Without essential high altitudeskills how are soldiers expected to patrolthe high mountains under heavy snow?These questions, however, did not findanswers from the BSF mandarins.

SNOW WARRIORS: After basic training, ITBP jawans are sent to Auli formountaineering and ski training


High Altitude Medical TrainingSchool (HAMTS) of the ITBP is a first ofits kind medical institution in Indiarun by any central police organisation.The ITBP men are deployed perennial-ly at high altitudes in extremely coldclimate. Exposure to this kind of envi-ronment adversely impacts the healthof the men. The extreme climatedemands high fitness levels and med-ical support for the problems causedby environment.

The extremely cold and dry regionof Ladakh poses great challenges tohealth and also an opportunity tostudy and understand the humanphysiological responses to such cli-matic conditions. HAMTS was inaugu-rated at Leh to this end on July 17,2009. The institute provides training todoctors and paramedics in the diagno-sis, treatment, and management ofhigh-altitude medical complications.

As the MBBS and higher medicalcourses do not cover high-altitudemedicine, doctors are not aware of thenuances of high-altitude sickness andcold injuries. This becomes a matter oflife and death when a soldier needsmedical help and doctors are unable to treat him locally at posts at high altitudes.

HAMTS runs two courses, a basichigh-altitude (Basic HA) course formedics for two weeks, and a week-longinduction course for medical officers.The institute has trained ten batches ofthe Basic HA course and three induc-tion batches for medical officers, with193 receiving the training till now. Pri-or to formal sanctioning of staff, theinstitute was running by poolingresources from battalions, includingmedics, trainees, infrastructure anddoctors. The institute now has a dedi-cated staff for training purposes andthe ITBP is looking forward to a veryambitious expansion plan.

The ITBP plans to develop this insti-tute as a training institute for otherforces and the general population as itis the only such institute in the countryapart from the DRDO institute whichcaters to the needs of Indian Army.

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THE SEPTEMBER 7 terroristattack on Delhi High Court,which killed 15, caused wide-spread hatred in India andunleashed outrage in the

media, with authorities trying to explaintheir position, and foreign governmentsincluding Pakistan, condemning thedastardly act.

But this phase shall pass quickly. Themedia will move on. The counter-terror-ism agencies would go back to their rou-tine work, till another strike takes place.In the meantime, government leaders will

reassure us of their determination to rootout terrorism and opposition politicalleaders will point fingers at the govern-ment's incapacity and lack of will to do soand try to score political points. The hap-less people will go back to their daily rou-tine and be lauded by the media for theresilience. But the people just don't haveany other option.

This is not to say that the intelligenceagencies were not working. Intelligenceagencies do not have spokespersons totell their side of the story, which is just aswell. Success in preventing terrorist

attacks, which have been considerable,cannot be detailed publicly as that wouldgive out operational details and terroristscould get clues to beat counter-terrorismmethodology. In a country of 1.2 billionmulti-lingual and multi-religious people,where physical characteristics of the peo-ple across the subcontinent and commonlanguages cannot be differentiated easily,the job for the agencies becomes muchmore difficult than in the US or Europe.

On the other hand, these agencies canperform only within the parameters theyare subjected to. This includes lack of

October 2011

Unless the entire subject of counter-terrorism is separated from law and order with adedicated ministry, law and courts, India will never get a real counter-terrorism structure

going, argues BHASKAR ROY

COUNTERING TERRORISM

sophistication of the technologies theyhave available, the quality of personnel,political pressures and vote-bank poli-tics and inadequate support, amongmany other hindrances and shortcom-ings. Then, there are turf wars betweenagencies.

To deride Indian agencies by pointingout that not a single terrorist attack hastaken place in the US after September 11,2001 is specious. The technologicalwherewithal of the US is about 50 yearsahead of the rest of the world. For exam-ple, a brief look at the National SecurityAgency (NSA) of the US, which is respon-sible for signal and technical intelligencecollection, had around 40,000 personnelat the end of 2000. This may have beenincreased after 9/11. There used to be a

weakness in their foreign languages areabut that has since been addressed. Theyhave huge technical intelligence stationsin many countries and these have beenestablished because of America's over-whelming power and influence.

In most sensitive US embassies,including in India, the Foreign Serviceofficers are in a minority. Except for theAmbassador, the Deputy Chief of Mis-sion and sometimes, the Political Minis-ter/ Counsellor, most of the posts aremanned by the CIA, FBI, NSA and mili-tary attaches fully trained in espionage.American agencies have their officersand agents embedded in enterprisesabroad. The Indian efforts are waybehind and, there is a constant turf battlebetween the various agencies.

Geographically, the US has the naturaladvantage of vast oceans on its easternand western coasts. It has well-guardedborders with Mexico (illegal immigrantsare an issue, not terrorists) and Canada.The US does not have land borders withcountries where elements includingthose in their governments, help terroristto infiltrate into the USA. Compare thiswith India which has large land borderswith Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladeshwhich have been used by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to infiltratetheir terrorist modules into India. It hasalso set up terrorist bases for its terroristgroups like the Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami(HuJI) and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) toestablish bases in Bangladesh with theblessings of the Jamaat-e-Islami(JeI)/Bangladesh Nationalist Party-(BNP)government (2001-2006).

Pakistan has used small disgruntledsections of the huge Muslim populationof India to raise terrorist modules andcreate indigenous groups like the IndianMujahidin (IM) and the Students IslamicMovement of India (SIMI). Thesegroups, especially the IM, have become a

part of the HUJI.Excluding laws like Prevention of Ter-

rorist Activities Act (POTA) and the Maha-rashtra Control of Organised Crime Act(MCOCA), which were used to settlepolitical scores rather than counter ter-rorism, there is an urgent requirement todraw a clear distinction between counter-terrorism and law and order. Some les-sons can be drawn from the US restruc-turing, and one is persuaded to believethat the National Intelligence Agency(NIA) was set up somewhat on the frame-work of American Department of Home-land Security. But the two countries havedifferent ethos, different cultures andvery different national human distribu-tion. The USA was founded by Europeanimmigrants while India has evolved over4000 years with waves of invasion andfrom countries as far as West Asia, Persia(Iran), Central Asia, Turkey and Mongolia,and super imposed by British colonial-ism. The Indian situation is extremelycomplex and a comparison with theAmerican situation is unjust.

Counter-terrorism has to be a totallyseparate entity under a homeland securi-ty head who does not have to occupyhimself/herself with law and orderissues. This should be the structure of theNIA. The NIA must get all inputs fromother central agencies and these inputsmust be accompanied by reliability com-ments. The NIA must have similar linkswith state police organisations whichmust create their own cells specificallylinked to the NIA.

The state counter-terrorism policemust be similarly designated and discon-nected with the law and order police. Inturn, both must create outreach pro-grammes to bond with the communities.The beat constable knows a lot about hisarea, but he is not trained to understandwhat he hears. His main job remains tokeep an eye on the bad charactersindulging in thefts and petty fights.

Money also changes hands. Bribesusually keep the beat constables andtheir immediate seniors silent. This isbecause they have not been imbibedwith the enormity and seriousness of thenational security predicament. A lotneeds to be introspected and much moreaddressed with regard to the structure ofintelligence agencies. The junior levelofficials must be street smart, must knowtheir way around, relatively trained ontheir areas of responsibility, bold but notfoolishly provocative and have the ability

A DISTINCTIONBETWEENCOUNTER-

TERRORISM ANDLAW AND ORDER

NEEDS TO BEMADE

October 2011


DASTARDLY ATTACK: Although the26/11 attack jolted the Indian securityestablishment, they have clearly not gottheir act together, as is evident from thesuccess of terror strikes since then

gGEOPO L I T I C S

gINTERNALSECURITY

to make friends and melt into the envi-ronment. Thankfully, this section is stillthere and they deliver. But increasinglymembers of these groups are getting dis-tracted by some of their senior officerswho use them for personal/domesticwork thereby eroding their professional-ism in the process. Similar is the casewith the Class-I cadres but there are dif-ferent elements. The first is the issue ofrecruitment to the particular intelligenceservice. To depute an officer from a dif-ferent service can prove to be counter-productive. Officers of different Civil Ser-vices are trained for a particular role. Ifhe/she is brought into an intelligenceagency at a very early stage, there wouldbe time to learn. But if the officer isinducted at the level of Director, JointSecretary or Additional Secretary, thetransition might not be ideal. Nothingcan replace experience, especially in anintelligence agency like Research andAnalysis Wing (RAW) or the NIA.

Promoting officers to the top level,including heads of agencies on politicalor filial connections severely degrades theefficacy of the agencies. Imagine thePrime Minster agreeing to appoint anofficer as the head of an agency who has

been passed over at least twice for pro-motion and has a dismal career record. Ifthis happens (it has happened), then itsets a bad example for the younger offi-cers. Thus, the responsibility for creatingdisenchantment down the ranks goes tothe very top. Administrative ministriescan still do with some disgruntled ele-ments, but intelligence agencies cannot.An effective intelligence officer is one

who is wedded to his work for 24 hours aday. Intelligence officers also needencouragement and a drastic change inculture. How deep is the expertise of ourofficers engaged in counter-terrorism

work? Expertise does not mean only fieldexperience. What is required is muchwider education through reading and fol-lowing such events across the world. Dowe have, say, a cell dedicated to a particu-lar target or group for a decade, as the CIAdid to take out Osama bin Laden?

The colour of international Islamicterrorist groups is changing. The MuslimBrotherhood in Egypt is moving awayfrom the old hard-line to see if they canbecome more acceptable regionally atleast, if not internationally. Differencesmay be coming out between differentgroups of terrorists, even in Pakistan.These terrorists are becoming increas-ingly unacceptable in most Islamiccountries. Some countries which pro-moted Wahabism abroad are having torethink their strategy. Should not Indianagencies try to exploit these develop-ments to keep terrorism outside the bor-ders? But the main drawback is thatthere is no capacity to do so and capaci-ty-building both in aggressive intelli-gence and defensive counter strategiesare woefully slow or totally lacking. Howelse could an unmanned ship float intoMumbai shores without being detected,or why were CCTV cameras not put out-side Delhi High Court even three yearsafter the project was approved? Corrup-tion is one of the reasons apart from thehistorical lack of co-operation. Theentire issue of counter terrorism must beseparated from law and order. Other-wise, India will never get a real counterterrorism structure going. Separationmeans a dedicated minister, ministry,law and courts, and co-operation fromother ministries and agencies.

The intelligence structure whichinduces the new perception of counter-terrorism has to undergo a thoroughoverhaul. But that may be expecting toomuch. Politicians will continue with theircounter-productive actions, nepotismwill remain, and turf battles will continue.The future looks as bleak but one stilllives in the hope that a real sense ofresponsibility and national interest willdescend. This commentary touches onlythe periphery. An exhaustive catharsis iscalled for. Indian intelligence agenciesare just not professional and a kind ofinertia has set in. How will we ever breakout of this mould when too many egosand feudal practices are involved?

( The author is a retired senior intel-ligence official)

SHOCK AND RAGE: Unlike India, the US has been able to curb domestic terrorattacks with widespread changes to its security setup


CAPACITY-BUILDING IN

INTELLIGENCEAND COUNTERSTRATEGIES IS

SLOW ORLACKING

gINTERNALSECURITY

g

CHINESECHANGE OFGUARD INTIBET

WILL THEMAOISTS INNEPAL SHAREPOWER RESPONSIBLY ?

The growing congruence ofinterests between India and

Germany is beneficial for thewhole world

geopolitics

DIPLOMACY

A UNIQUEPARTNERSHIP


ON SEPTEMBER 13, theAmerican Census Bureauannounced that a record46.2 million, or one in sevenAmericans, lived in poverty

last year. Although the current reces-sion greatly increased the number ofpoor persons, high levels of povertypredate it.

In fact, for the last two decades, censusofficials have announced in most yearsthat more than 35 million Americanswere poor. Last year’s number was 43.5million. But there is a wide chasmbetween the public’s concepts of povertyand “poverty” as it is defined by the Cen-sus Bureau.

The public generally thinks of povertyas substantial material hardship such ashomelessness, or malnutrition andchronic hunger. In reality, the vast major-ity of those identified as poor by theannual census report did not experiencesignificant material deprivation.

In a recent Rasmussen poll, adultsagreed (by a ratio of six to one) that “a

family that is adequately fed and livingin a house or apartment that is in goodrepair” is not poor. By that simple test,about 80 per cent of the Census Bureau’s“poor” people would not be consideredpoor by their fellow Americans.

In the same Rasmussen poll, howev-er, 73 per cent said poverty was a severeproblem. Why the disconnect? Theanswer: Public perception of poverty in the US is governed by the main-stream media, which invariably depictsthe Census Bureau’s tens of millions ofpoor people as chronically hungry andmalnourished, homeless or barelyhanging on in overcrowded, dilapidatedhousing.

The strategy of the media is to take theleast fortunate 3 per cent or 4 per cent ofthe poor and portray their condition asrepresentative of most poor Americans.While Americans must have compassionfor those who are truly homeless or with-out food, they are far from typical amongthe poor.

How do the poor live? For starters, a

poor child in America is far more likely tohave a widescreen plasma television,cable or satellite TV, a computer and anXbox or TiVo in his home than he is to behungry.

How can that be? In 2009, the USDepartment of Agriculture asked parentsliving in poverty this question: “In the last12 months, were [your] children everhungry but you just couldn’t afford morefood?” Some 96 per cent of poor parentsresponded “no”: Their children never hadbeen hungry because of a lack of foodresources at any time in the previous year.Only 4 per cent of poor parents respond-ed “yes,” their children had been hungryat some point in the year.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for ABCor CBS to beam out that information.

Here are more surprising facts aboutAmericans defined as “poor” by the Cen-sus Bureau, all taken from various gov-ernment reports and included in my newpaper from The Heritage Foundationcalled Understanding Poverty in the United States:

October 2011

Every seventh American is poor with their total number reaching 46 million. ROBERT RECTOR and RACHEL SHEFFIELD analyse if the ‘poor’ are really poor

STRANGE FACTS ABOUTAMERICA’S ‘POOR’

gGEOPO L I T I C S

gGLOBALWATCH

Eighty per cent of poor householdshave air conditioning. By contrast, in1970, only 36 per cent of the entire USpopulation enjoyed air conditioning.Fully 92 per cent of poor householdshave a microwave; two-thirds have atleast one DVD player and 70 per centhave a VCR.Nearly 75 per cent have a car or truck;31 per cent have two or more cars ortrucks.Four out of five poor adults assert theywere never hungry at any time in theprior year due to lack of money forfood.Nearly two-third have cable or satellitetelevision.Half have a personal computer; one inseven have two or more computers.More than half of poor families withchildren have a video game systemsuch as Xbox or PlayStation.Just under half — 43 per cent — haveInternet access.A third have a widescreen plasma orLCD TV.One in every four has a digital videorecorder such as TiVo. As noted, TV newscasts about poverty

in America usually picture the poor ashomeless or as a destitute family living inan overcrowded, rundown trailer. Theactual facts are far different:

At a single point in time, only one in70 poor persons is homeless.The vast majority of the houses orapartments of the poor are in goodrepair; only 6 per cent are over-crowd-ed.The average poor American has moreliving space than the average non-poor individual living in Sweden,France, Germany or the United King-domOnly 10 per cent of the poor live inmobile homes or trailers; half live indetached single-family houses ortownhouses, while 40 per cent live inapartments.Forty-two per cent of all poor house-holds own their home; on average, it’sa three-bedroom house with one-and-a-half baths, a garage, and a porch orpatio.Certainly, the recession with its high

levels of unemployment has generatedsuffering in many segments of our

society. But the US Bureau of Labor Sta-tistics reports that among the lowest-income fifth of households, inflation-adjusted consumer spending actuallyincreased modestly during the recession.

Given these facts, how does the CensusBureau conclude that more than 40 mil-lion Americans are poor? They identify afamily as poor the family’s cash incomefalls below specific thresholds. For exam-ple, in 2009 a family of four was “poor” ifannual cash income fell below $21,954.

But in counting income, the CensusBureau ignores almost the entire welfare state. This year, government will spend over $900 billion on means-tested anti-poverty programmes thatprovide cash, food, housing, medicalcare and targeted social services to poorand near-poor Americans. (Social Secu-rity and Medicare are not included inthat total.)

This means-tested welfare spendingcomes to around $9,000 for each poor orlow-income American — virtually noneof which is counted by census officialsfor purposes of calculating poverty orinequality. The missing money is greaterthan the gross domestic product of mostother countries.

All of this might lead a thoughtful lib-eral to ask: Doesn’t the higher standard ofliving enjoyed by most of the poor (sup-ported by the uncounted means-testedwelfare spending) suggest the welfarestate is working? Has America won theWar on Poverty?

The answer is a partial yes.Not even the government can spend

$900 billion per year and have no impacton living standards. But the original goalof President Lyndon B Johnson’s War onPoverty was to eliminate the “causes” aswell as the “symptoms” of poverty.

Johnson said he sought to make thepoor self-sufficient and prosperous, andto reduce dependence on government.LBJ promised to shrink, not expand, thewelfare state. In helping the poor, hesaid, his goal was to “make taxpayers outof taxeaters.”

After $17 trillion spent on the War onPoverty, Johnson’s goal is further off thanever.

(Robert Rector is senior research fel-low in domestic policy at the HeritageFoundation and Rachel Sheffield is a

research assistant at The Heritage Foun-dation, Washington D.C)

October 2011


gGLOBALWATCH

g

REAL OR PERCEIVED: There is a widespread disconnect between the publicperception of poverty in America and the Census Bureau's definition of it


gGEOPO L I T I C S

gDIPLOMACY

October 2011

There are critical challengesand infinite opportunitiesbefore India and Germany.

An exciting future awaitsthem if they work together,

writes YAMINI CHOWDHURY

The purpose of foreign policy is not to pro-vide an outlet for own sentiments of hopeor indignation; it is to shape real events ina real world.

John F. Kennedy

PERHAPS, IT is these profoundwords that define the trueimport of bilateral relationsbetween two vibrant democra-cies: Germany and India. In the

last six decades, the relationship sharedbetween the most populous country inEurope and the largest democracy in theworld with an increasingly assertive pres-ence within the security and economicarchitecture of the Asian region and theworld, has been emblematic of mutualrespect, friendship, deep understandingand support. However, as the ‘Year of Ger-many’ in India is in progress with thetheme, ‘Infinite Opportunities — Ger-many and India 2011-2012’, it is impera-tive to go beyond the shared values ofdemocracy and peaceful co-existenceand explore new dimensions that tran-scend entrenched positions.

NEW MILLENNIUM; NEW BEGINNING Even though bilateral relations betweenIndia and Germany gained prominencewith India’s formal recognition of theFederal Republic of Germany in 1951, thegenesis of this long-standing partnership

can be traced to the late 19th centu-ry, when the ‘Imperial GermanConsulate’ (Kaiserlich Deutsches

Generalkonsulat) began functioning fromCalcutta.

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP:Although the relationship betweenIndia and Germany leaves a lot to bedesired, steps are finally being takento forge new ties

INDO-GERMANPARTNERSHIP INTHE 21ST CENTURY

INDO-GERMANPARTNERSHIP INTHE 21ST CENTURY

October 2011

gDIPLOMACY

gHowever, Indo-German relations,

friendly otherwise, got a tremendousboost after the liberalisation of the Indianeconomy in 1991. German foreign policywas quick to acknowledge India’s rapideconomic progress and growing strategicheft. Finally, after years of fitful improve-ments and dichotomous foreign policychoices, the ‘Agenda for German-IndianPartnership in the 21st Century’ wascrafted in May 2000, thus paving the wayfor the relationship to be taken to a sus-tainable trajectory. The Agenda paved theway for regular interactions between theheads of states and annual ministerial-level meetings.

The transformative impact of the Agen-da on bilateral relations was demonstratedby the joint declaration signed by FederalChancellor, Angela Merkel and IndianPrime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh inApril 2006, which stressed the critical issueof strengthening future cooperation inenergy, science and technology anddefence. These efforts were bolstered evenfurther by the declaration signed duringthe October 2007 visit of Chancellor Merkelto India. The appreciable progress in thespan of just one year provided the blue-print for a more ambitious future. The May2011 visit of Federal Chancellor, AngelaMerkel, which was preceded by the five-

day state visit of the then German FederalPresident, Horst Köhler in February 2010,was a clear indicator of the immeasurablevalue of this strategic partnership, particu-larly to Germany.

The importance of the first, compre-hensive inter-governmental consultationheld in May 2011 can be gauged from thefact that India is one of the three non-European nations with which Germanyhas had such profound interaction. Thetalks were comprehensive and coveredthe entire gamut of bilateral relations,from security and defence policy, trade,vocational training, education andresearch to infrastructure, sustainableenergy and environment technologies.The immense significance of the growingcongruence of interests was summarisedby Chancellor Merkel. “Through this spe-cial commitment to cooperation across abroad political spectrum, we have laid thefoundation for jointly addressing theglobal challenges of our times”, she articu-lated in her statement, which clearlyunderscores the need for greater coopera-tion between the two nations.

The high-profile visit was also markedby the inauguration of the ‘Year of Ger-many’ in India by the Chancellor. Thegovernment also conferred the JawaharlalNehru Award for International Under-

standing for the year 2009 on the Chan-cellor in “recognition of her personaldevotion and enormous efforts for sus-tainable and equitable development, forgood governance and understanding andfor the creation of a world better posi-tioned to handle the emerging challengesof the 21st century”.

So have bilateral relations betweenIndia and Germany been imbued with asense of purpose, conviction anddynamism as exhibited by the joint state-ments and press releases? Or, is this noth-ing more than mere political rhetoric? Pro-fessor Rajendra Jain, Professor of Euro-pean Studies at the School of InternationalStudies in Jawaharlal Nehru University,believes: “After several decades of benignneglect and mutual indifference, Indo-German relations have substantiallyimproved and deepened in the pastdecade in nearly all fields, including a sig-nificant increase in high-level bilateral vis-its. However, it is the rising level of bilater-al trade between the two nations, ratherthan the strategic dimension of the rela-tionship, that has been the most definingfeature of Indo-German bilateral relations.Despite regular interactions between thetwo nations at international forums suchas the UNSC, G20 and G4, and the absenceof any major bilateral irritants, India has


OPPORTUNE CALL: The state visits of the leaders like Chancellor Angela Merkel have provided the ideal opportunities for furtheringrelationship between the two countries

not excited German policy-makers theway China has.”

Elaborating on the German focus onChina, Professor Jain asserts, “Apart froman interest in stabilising a fragile Pakistanand a speedy resolution of the Afghanproblem, Germany is not very relevantwithin the South Asian context. Sincethere are very few issues that warrant col-laboration with India, there is really noscope for very tight-knit, close politicalconsultations. At the moment, however,Germany seems more tantalised by Chi-na. But in future, there is potential forgreater cooperation between India andGermany on issues like maritime securityand terrorism among others.”

ELEVATING THE STRATEGIC RELA-TIONSHIPSystematic expansion in bilateralpolitical relations formed an impor-tant component of the Agenda framed inthe year 2000 and the subsequent decla-rations signed in 2006 and 2007. However,the fact that strengthening the strategicpartnership between the two nations alsofigured high on the list of priorities ofboth governments has important impli-cations. At the core of this deepeningstrategic relationship are vital issues ofmilitary cooperation and security.

The sale of arms, an intrinsic elementof military cooperation, from India — thefifth-largest arms exporter — has beenfairly inconsistent and indecisive. While aspurt in German military imports wasnoticed in the years 2000, 2004 and later,in 2006, these improvements have beensporadic. Some of the major militaryacquisitions from Germany include Type-209 submarines, diesel engines for sub-marines and tanks and Do-228 aircraft.The much-desired momentum in militaryrelations was provided by the Defenceand Security Agreement 2006, which wassigned by the then Defence MinisterPranab Mukherjee and his German coun-terpart, Franz Josef Jung. The agreement,which lucidly spelt out the need forgreater defence cooperation between thetwo nations, emphasised regular militaryexchanges between Service Chiefs, train-ing and consultations and a comprehen-sive framework for joint defence produc-tion, research and development thatextended beyond the ambit of defenceacquisitions. The creation of such aframework, it was highlighted, would beinstrumental in achieving a more tangibletransfer of technology. The agreement

also created the Indo-German HighDefence Committee, or HDC, for dis-cussing and evaluating the numerouspossibilities for greater Indo-Germandefence cooperation. In its first meetingin 2007, both parties of the HDC con-curred to elevate the level of exchanges inpeacekeeping operations and disastermanagement.

The last few years have also witnessedseveral high-profile visits: the GermanNavy Chief in 2006 and the German AirChief in 2007, followed by the GermanArmy Chief in 2008. The first joint navalexercise between the two nations in Kochiin 2008 brought together the Federal Ger-man Ship F220 Hamburg, the frigate F211Köln, an air defence ship and thereplenishment

tanker FGS Berlin and INS Tir and INSKrishna, signalling a momentous steptowards cooperation in internationalnaval operations in the future. Germansecurity forces have also offered theirexpertise in other areas such as countert-errorism measures, intelligence sharingand training.

MMRCA DEAL: THE POTENTIALGROWTH DRIVER?The Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft(MMRCA) deal, considered to be theworld’s biggest defence contract, isviewed by many as an important tool toenhance the strategic partnershipbetween India and Germany. EurofighterTyphoon, regarded as the world’s mostadvanced swing-role combat aircraft, isbeing developed by a four-nation consor-tium consisting of Great Britain, Ger-many, Italy and Spain. It has been pittedagainst Rafale, a French fighter aircraftdeveloped by Dassault Aviation, for thebid to supply 126 MMRCAs to the IndianAir Force at a cost of $11 billion.

Describing the tremendous interest inbringing India into the Eurofighter’s sup-ply chain, Enzo Casolini, CEO, Eurofight-

er, says, “The Eurofighter Typhoon con-sortium and their four governments, Ger-many, Italy, Spain and UK, provide theopportunity for a unique industrial part-nership which makes India a full partici-pant in the Eurofighter Typhoon pro-gramme. The three Eurofighter partnercompanies, BAE Systems, Finmeccanicaand EADS, had a turnover of more than$120 billion in 2010 with a range of prod-ucts from submarines to satellites, ascompared to the $5 billion reach of ourcompetitors. These figures clearly showthe extent of the industrial partnershipbetween India and the four Eurofighterpartner companies. Moreover, theEurofigher consortium will offer a trans-fer of its technology without constraints

to further strengthenIndia’s defence

industrial

self-reliance.”Bernhard Gerwert,

Chairman of the SupervisoryBoard of Eurofighter GmbH and CEO ofEADS subsidiary, Cassidian Air Systemsstates, “Our key target is to establish along-term strategic partnership betweenIndia and Europe. Choosing theEurofighter Typhoon as its future MMR-CA would enable India to elevate itsstrategic relationship, not only with Ger-many, but also with the United Kingdom,Spain and Italy and their armed forces toa completely new level.”

Gerwert also believes that India’s entryinto the programme would revitalise itsdefence and aerospace industry. “Wereally want to intensify the industrial andtechnological cooperation with India andintegrate this rapidly growing nation intothe Eurofighter Typhoon programme asan industrial participant. India has theunique opportunity to join the Eurofight-er programme in order to co-develop andco-produce future capabilities for thisaircraft. Given the fact that the Typhoonhas an operational service life of more


(70)

gDIPLOMACY

g

HISTORICOPPORTUNITY: TheTyphoon is a strong contenderfor the MMRCA programme andcould provide an opportunity fordeeper technological cooperation

than 40 years, India could play an activerole in the aircraft’s further development.This will support the creation of a mod-ern defence and aerospace industry inIndia and the indigenisation of its aero-space and defence capabilities could cre-ate more than 20,000 high-skilled jobs inthis country,” he asserts.

It remains to be seen whether theEurofighter deal would be instrumentalin elevating the strategic partnershipbetween India and Germany. However,Professor Rajendra Jain believes thatthere are other areas of mutual interestthat hold immense promise. “Eventhough bilateral ties are essentially tradeand commerce driven and would contin-ue to be so in the near future as well,there is growing interest among Germansto gain access to the world’s largest armsimporter. Also, considering Germany’ssupportive role within the Nuclear Sup-pliers Group (NSG) and the relaxation ofdual-use technology norms, there existsimmense potential for bilateral coopera-tion in the field of civil nuclear energy”

he said. Civilian cooperation in theatomic sector

could includeGerman assistance for promotingsafety of nuclear plants and developingturbine technology for nuclear reactors.

ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT According to the latest figures of the Fed-eral Statistical Office in Wiesbaden, Indo-German trade has ratcheted up animpressive 18 per cent growth rate in2010 — the highest in the last three years— after registering a decline of 2.3 percent during the year 2009. Bilateral tradebetween the two countries touched arecord high of €15.4 billion in 2010,adding €2.3 billion to the previous year’s

figure. These impressive figures have putto rest all speculation about bilateraltrade reaching the €14 billion target. Indi-an exports recorded a growth of 21.3 per

cent in the previous year and reached€6.2 billion, while imports from Germanygrew at 15.7 per cent in 2010 touching€9.2 billion. The ambitious trade target of€20 billion by 2012, set by theseads of state of bothnations in Decem-

ber 2010, couldwell be achieved

even before thestipulated timeperiod.

The desire to givean impetus to bilat-eral trade resulted in

the establishment ofthe Joint Commission

on Industrial and Economic Coopera-tion led by the Finance Ministers on

both sides. Today, there are fiveJoint Working Groups on agri-culture, automobiles, infra-

structure, coal and vocational education.In September 2007, a knowledge paper

titled, India and Germany, published byFICCI and KPMG, highlighted the inher-ent business potential of the economicengagement between the two nations.The paper, while recognising theprospects in sectors such as IT, bio-tech-nology, telecommunications and health-care, emphasised the urgent need toexplore the latent potential in largelymoribund sectors such as Indian mediaand entertainment industry, retail, elec-tronics, financial services, travel and

tourism, consumer goods, logistics, edu-cation and Small and Medium Enterpris-es (SMEs).

The issue of imbalance in ForeignDirect Investment (FDI) inflows isanother challenge that warrants imme-diate resolution. According to the State-ment on Country-wise FDI inflows fromApril 2000 to April 2011, published by theDepartment of Industrial Policy & Pro-motion in the Ministry of Commerceand Industry, the cumulative FDI inflowsfrom Germany stood at $3,050.74 mil-lion, which accounted for a mere 2.3 percent of the total FDI inflows into India.This is in sharp contrast to the risingstock of Indian FDI in Germany, whichwas estimated at about €4.125 billion inmid-2010. An expeditious review of fac-tors that inhibit FDI inflows into Indiasuch as investment regulations, indirecttaxes and duties, corporate taxes, wage-related issues, labour laws and immi-gration laws, would create a more con-

ducive business environment in thecountry.

On the critical issue of trade imbalance,Guido Christ, Deputy Director General,Indo German Chamber of Commerce,believes: “The bilateral trade betweenIndia and Germany in 2010 was $18,232billion. Of that amount, 63 per cent wereimports into India from Germany and thebalance exports to Germany. That is thereal bilateral imbalance. It is because Ger-man exports mainly comprise machinery,plants and high-value equipment, where-as Indian exports include garments, tex-tiles, leather and only a small percentageof high-value items.”

To correct this imbalance, he suggests,“India has to manufacture and sell prod-ucts, which are more competitive, espe-cially with regard to quality. This is noth-ing new and has to be taken up by thegovernment in order to strengthen theso-called manufacturing sector.”

THE WAY FORWARD Both India and Germany have democrat-ically elected federal structures, enjoyconvergence of views on internationalissues and espouse common values —key factors that thread the nationstogether. Deepening bilateral ties in allspheres — political, strategic, economicand cultural — would create a lastingpartnership that would shape the realevents in today’s globalised world.

(The author is a freelance journalist)

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GREAT POTENTIALEXISTS FOR

COOPERATION INTHE FIELD OF

NUCLEAR ENERGYBETWEEN INDIA AND

GERMANY

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THOMAS MATUSSEK, Germany’sAmbassador to India since

November 2009, is one of the mosthigh-profile officers in the German

Foreign Service, evident from thefact that he was the “Permanent

Representative” of his country to theUnited Nations (2002-06).

His impressive track record of 36years in the Foreign Service, among

others, is the possible reason why hehas been chosen to take on the

newly-created position of Head ofPublic Affairs at Deutsche Bank from

November 1, 2011. Matussek is a great advocate of India

and its values and this is his secondDelhi posting; he served as Press

Counsellor at the German Embassybetween 1983 and 1986. To a great

extent, he deserves the credit fororganising the celebration of “The

Year of Germany in India”, whichcommenced on September 23 and

will continue for the next 15 monthswith a series of programmes

all over India. In a candid interview to

PRAKASH NANDA, the GermanAmbassador underlined why

Germany and India “must growthrough partnership, innovation and

sustainability”.

October 2011


Pho

to: H

.C.T

iwar

i

“INDIA’SSECURITY IS OURSECURITY”

“INDIA’SSECURITY IS OURSECURITY”

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How are you celebrating the “The Yearof Germany in India”?TM: We want to breathe life into ourstrategic partnership. We are setting upan exchange of ideas: people to people,Indians and Germans. German high-tech and Indian brains will find solu-tions to the challenges posed by rapidurbanisation. With the mobile space, acluster of high-tech pavilions, we willcreate a buzz in seven of India’s megacities, with highly attractive pro-grammes directed primarily at theyoung, urban youth. This is the biggestpresence that Germany has ever stagedin India and it clearly showcases thepotential of Indo-German cooperation.We will provide an all-round impressionof our economy, research, education,culture and society: a 360 degreepanorama of Germany.

One understands German businessleaders are very keen on this project.How do they see the opportunities inIndia given the fact that foreign invest-ment in India of late has shown somedisturbing signs, largely due to the lackof infrastructural inadequacies andlengthy clearance processes?TM: We consider the so-called obstaclesin India to be great challenges andpromises for us. In fact, all Germanfirms are happy in India. Siemens, forinstance, has doubled its business inlast two years through its 26 manufac-turing sites in India that have providedemployment to more than 80,000 peo-ple. We invest in India not only for Indiabut for other parts of the world. That iswhy we expect the 15-month celebra-tion will end on a high note in Novem-ber 2012 when more than 1000 CEOsand ministers will assemble in Delhi toexplore ‘infinite opportunities’ for theAsia-Pacific Committee of GermanBusiness (APA).

How do you view the other aspects ofIndo-German relations? TM: India’s relations with Germanyhave seen a tremendous boost over thepast years. The two countries areimportant partners on the internationalstage. In fact, India is no more a clientfor German business but a strategicpartner. More than one billion peopleare living in a dangerous neighbour-hood and no global system can workwithout India, whether it is climate

control, terrorism or internationalfinancial order. We are working togetheron all these issues. Our political leadersmeet on a regular basis in bilateral andmultilateral frameworks. After all, Indiaand Germany share the same values. Ithink if you look around the world,India is a vivid democracy, an anchor ofstability in a very unruly neighbour-hood and I think together we can do alot of things to improve stability, peaceand prosperity in the world.

How are you working together towardsthe restructuring and democratisationof the United Nations Security Coun-cil? TM: India and Germany are committedto supporting each other in their bid fora permanent membership in the Secu-rity Council, of which both are non-per-manent members now. We are part ofG-4 along with Brazil and Japan. All ofus are of the opinion that the composi-tion of the Security Council must reflectthe geopolitical realities of the 21st cen-tury. All four of us have legitimateclaims over the permanent member-ship. In fact, the G-4 is working veryhard to get the necessary approval ofthe two-third majority of the UnitedNations members for this purpose.

You talked of fighting terrorism. AreIndia and Germany working togetheron this issue?TM: Absolutely. In the common fightagainst terrorism and particularly since26/11 in Mumbai, we have been under-taking measures promoting closer intel-ligence sharing and training pro-grammes for anti-terrorism experts.Exchange of intelligence information isimportant. By doing that we can pre-vent major terrorist incidents.

It is said that Germany has cooperatedwith India by acting against supportersof Khalistan and deported a few. Is thiscooperation still continuing? TM: Yes, it is working to the satisfactionof both sides.

I believe there is a little problem here.Germany has opposed the death sen-tence to Khalistani terrorist DevinderPal Singh Bhullar, who was deportedfrom your country where he hadsought political asylum. His mercypetition was rejected recently by

President Pratibha Patil. How are youlooking at it? TM: As you know, Germany, or for thatmatter the 27-nation European Union,is opposed to Bhullar’s hanging becausewe, as a matter of policy, are opposed tocapital punishment as a principle. Wehave written to your Home Ministry inthis regard. But ultimately, it will be thedecision of India that matters. It is yourlaws that will prevail. And we respectthat.

What about defence cooperation?TM: We take that very seriously. We areof the opinion that India’s security isour security. Our defence forces havebeen working together. There have beenjoint military exercises, though theseare on a smaller scale. But if India isprepared, we will readily raise the level.We do not regard India as a client but asa true security partner and that is whywe are prepared to offer armamentssystems to India which we don’t sharewith anyone and we envisage full tech-nology transfer.

That brings me to the shortlisting ofthe Eurofighter as India’s multirolefighter plane, in which Germany hasgot a huge share. Do you think thatbourgeoning Indo-German relationswill be adversely affected if the dealfinally does not come through and goesto the rival French Dassault Rafale? TM: We are not even thinking of the prospect of Eurofighter not gettingthe Indian nod. We believe that theprocess and procedure on the Indianside has been very good and transpar-ent. We have no doubt it will be astransparent in the future as well. Webelieve we have the most modern air-craft, not an old aircraft that has beenmodernised several times. We are con-fident of getting the final approval. Weare ready to share technology withIndia. We are very optimistic aboutfuture possibilities. We consider it avery important political partnership. AsI told you, India’s security is our securi-ty. That is why we choose the best forIndia. And we are not insisting on thecontroversial end- user monitoringagreement because we believe that inthe next 10-20 years, Europe and Indiashould really fight side-by-side inmeeting the great security challengesof our planet.


NEPAL HAS been passingthrough a phase of disap-pointment and anxiety sincethe establishment of anelected Constituent Assem-

bly (CA) in 2008. In the past three yearsand more, three Prime Ministers cameand left without making any substantialprogress either in the peace process in orin the framing of the Constitution. Now afourth coalition government has beenestablished. With the assumption ofoffice by Maoist Vice-Chairman BaburamBhattarai as the new Prime Minister inthe last days of August 2011, new hopes

for the completion of the peace processand Constitution-writing have beenaroused. Bhattarai enjoys wide popularsupport even outside his party for hisintegrity and straightforwardness. Withhis assumption of office, the largest partyin the CA, the Maoists, have also returnedto power as the leader of the coalitiongovernment after being kept on the margins for more than three years.

The recent change in Nepal would nothave been possible without three impor-tant developments. The first is the inter-nal metamorphosis within the Maoistparty where after an intense struggle for

power, its Chairman, Pushpa KamalDahal, better known as ‘Prachanda’, hasbeen forced to share power with his twosenior colleagues, Mohan Baidya ‘Kiran’and Baburam Bhattarai. While Bhattaraiwould lead the government, Baidya willmanage organisational affairs. Chairman‘Prachanda’ will be the overall coordina-tor. An important fallout of this internalstruggle has been a categorical shift in theparty’s position towards pursuance of theagenda of the peace process and Consti-tution-writing in collaboration with otherpolitical parties. For the first time, theparty has also come out with a specific

October 2011

Nepal has a new government headed by the Maoists. But its success depends on thecapacity and desire of the Maoists to share power with other major political forces and the

support it gets from the international community, particularly India, argues SD MUNI

HOPING FOR THE BEST

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BACK IN POWER: After being on the margins for three years, the Maoist party has returned to power as the leader of the coalition

proposal on disbanding its armed cadresand made a public commitment onaddressing the long-pending demands ofother political parties, like the return ofproperties seized by Maoists in the courseof the ten-year-long (1996-2006) insur-gency. The Maoists have proposed thatwhile 8,000 of their 19,000 strong armedcadres may be integrated into the securi-ty forces, the rest may be given a goldenhandshake (of Rupees 700,000 to one mil-lion each) to help them find alternativeavenues of career. To underline the sin-cerity of its commitment, the Maoistshave endorsed some of the proposals putforward by the Nepal Army regarding theintegration of the armed cadres into thesecurity forces. The Maoists have alsohanded over the keys of the boxes con-taining the arms of the Maoist cadres tothe Special Committee of the CA, which isdesignated to decide and supervise thedisbanding of the armed cadres.

The second major development hasbeen the decision of the Madhesh-basedparties to come together to forge a coali-tion government with the Maoists. TheUnited Democratic Madhesh Front(UDMF) worked out a four-point dealwith the Maoists that included the repre-sentation of the Madhesies in variousestablishments, including the NepalArmy (10,000 cadres) and withdrawal ofcriminal cases against Madhesh politicalactivists in the course of various move-ments. They also made the Maoists agreeto a lower figure of 7,000 of their armedcadres to be integrated into Nepal’s armyand other security forces. The Madheshgroups have a longstanding resentmentagainst other mainstream parties, spe-cially the Nepali Congress (NC) and theNepal Communist Party-United MarxistLeninist (UML), on issues related to fed-eralism and power-sharing. They find theposition of the Maoists on most of theseissues closer to their aspirations.

It is widely speculated in Nepal thatthe Madhesh groups could not have beenable to forge any understanding with theMaoists if India had any reservations inthis respect.

The fact that Baburam Bhattarai couldbecome the Prime Minister and that theMaoists could lead the coalition with thehelp of the Madhesh groups is a clearindication that India endorsed this coali-tion. Whether India actively supportedthis new coalition or not, there have beenreasons for India to change its stance inrelation to the Maoists as the previous

strategy of politically isolating theMaoists and keeping them out of powerproved to be counterproductive. Thisstrategy received a big jolt when the UMLand the Maoists forged a coalition underthe prime-ministership of UML’s JhalaNath Khanal in February 2011.

The isolation of the Maoists had stalledthe peace process and paralysed gover-nance in Nepal. Political instability wasalso encouraging the Chinese to dig indeep into Nepal at the cost of India’sstrategic space and vital long-term secu-rity and economic interests. The visits ofhigh-level Chinese political, military andbusiness delegations to Nepal during thepast three years have been fuelling Indiananxieties and concerns. There was alsosignificant rise in anti-Indian sentimentin Nepal led by the Maoists, which result-ed in unprecedented acts like the IndianAmbassador being hurled stones andshoes at. Sections of the Indian establish-ment preferred the NC to lead a coalitionwith the UML and the Madhesh groups inorder to keep the Maoists at bay but therewere too many aspirants for the primeministerial position among the NC stal-warts. The party’s leadership and organi-sational ability hardly inspired any confi-dence among the Nepal policy plannersin New Delhi’s South Block.

Accordingly, it was in the face of lack ofany viable alternatives that India decidedto shift its three-year-old position in rela-tion to the Maoists and decided to givethem yet another chance in Nepal. TheCabinet Committee on Security in NewDelhi, which debated the Nepal issue inAugust 2011 intensely, came to the con-clusion that the strategy of isolating theMaoists was not leading anywhere andthat there was an urgent need to reviewand recast this strategy.

Back channel negotiations initiatedwith the Maoists more than a year back,tried to ascertain that their second com-ing to power would not jeopardise Indianinterests and that they would sincerelydeliver on the peace process and the Con-stitution-making. The Maoists’ depend-ence on the Madhesh groups was seen asa reassuring fallback position for the Indi-an approach. With the Madhesh group inthe Maoist-led government, Indian poli-cy-making establishments could hope toexercise a continuing influence in thecritical areas of the functioning and sur-vival of the government in Kathmandu.

The new government has been posi-tively received in Nepal. The big

October 2011


gREGIONALPRISM

gBECAUSE OF THE

TRUST DEFICITWITH MAOISTS, THENEPALI CONGRESSIS INSISTING ON A

THIRD-PARTYGUARANTOR

OUTSIDER NO MORE: At the helm ofaffairs in Kathmandu, Prachanda has areal chance to ensure stabilty in Nepal byheeding to the interests of the variousstakeholders

question, however, is if this governmentwill deliver. Bhattarai had promised tocomplete the peace process within 45days of his assumption of office. By thetime he returns after his participation inthe UN General Assembly in New York, itwould be a month of him as Prime Minis-ter. Much of the next 15 will keep theNepalese busy in their biggest annualcultural festivities of Dassain (Dusherrain India). And failing to meet the dead-lines will seriously dent the credibility ofthe government and the Bhattarai lead-ership. The government has, however,reiterated its commitment by handingover the keys of Maoists arms to the CASpecial Committee as noted earlier. Italso seems quite confident and deter-mined that it will create a compensationpackage and move forward to regroupthe Maoist combatants along those whowant to be retained in the security forcesand those who want to join civilianmainstream. And, in the process, if theopposition parties engage with theMaoists and reach a consensus on theissues of integration, peace process andconstitution, matters can move muchfaster to conclude the whole process inthe next three to sixmonths at the most.

The success of theBhattarai govern-ment criticallydepends on threefactors. First, thatthe Maoists do notdeviate from theircommitment tothe peace processunder the thrust oftheir internal politi-cal pressures.

Everyone knows that the isolated hard-line faction of the Maoists led by Baidyahas not given up on opposing the hand-ing-over of the keys and the four-pointdeal struck with the Madhesh groups.There are attempts on the part of MaoistChairman Prachanda to soften the Baidyagroup and bring it into the fold of thecoalition government, but the prospectsof the success of these attempts are diceyat best. The Maoists, perhaps, would notsplit, but the extent of cooperation by theBaidya group to the Bhattarai governmentand the peace process is anybody’s guess.There are also speculations that Prachan-da may not let Baburam succeed as thatmight result in the denting of his personalleadership and the prospects of returningto power as the chief executive. But mostof such speculations may not be tenable.

Secondly, if the pres-ent initiative for thepeace process has to

succeed under theBhattarai govern-

ment, then thec o a l i t i o n

p a r t n e r sshould sticktogether andthe opposition

must also bebrought inas activeparticipantsin the peaceprocess andConstitution-

making. TheM a d h e s h

groupsstand frag-

mented alongcaste and per-

sonality cleav-ages. They do not

enjoy a great repu-tation for honesty,

integrity and commit-ment in the Nepali

perception. But they mustrealise that the failure of the

peace process would also put at stake theprosperity and devolution of power forthe whole of Madhesh and also theirrespective political careers. Among theopposition parties, the role of the NC ismost critical. While the NC has sharp dif-ferences with the Maoists on the detailsof the integration of the armed cadres(numbers, ranks and the compensationpackage), its real concern is to ensure thatthe Maoists do not walk away alone withthe credit for the success of the peaceprocess and the constitution-making.The Maoists are willing to share the own-ership of the peace process with the NCand, are also inclined to hand over theleadership of the coalition government tothe NC for holding the next elections onthe basis of the principle of rotation. Theyknow that they alone cannot accomplishthese national tasks. However, in view ofits prevailing trust deficit with theMaoists, the NC is insisting on a third-party guarantor, particularly India. Itremains to be seen if the Maoists areamenable to India playing such a roleand, on its part, India is willing and capa-ble of ensuring that the Maoists honourtheir political commitments to the NC tomake the peace process and Constitu-tion-writing a success.

The third necessary condition for thesuccess of the peace process under theBhattarai government is that the interna-tional community, particularly India,continues to support the present initia-tive and help it as much as possible tomove forward. It is in the larger interest ofthe peace process and overall stability inNepal that the NC is on board in the pres-ent initiative. The NC’s participation inthe peace process and Constitution-writ-ing will keep it firmly on the democratictrack by providing an ideological balanceto the extremist pulls within the Maoistsparty. NC’s participation will also facili-tate the emergence of national consensusin this process, because it will surely per-suade the UML not to remain aloof. Indiaand the international community inNepal should, therefore, nudge the NCtowards joining hands with the Maoists.This should be done on mutually-accept-able terms between the Maoists and theNC as a political package without permit-ting the technical aspects of the combat-ants’ integration issues to vitiate thebroader national perspective.

(The author is Research Professor,ISAS Singapore)


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THE PEOPLE’S STAR:Baburam Bhattarai enjoysextensive support, even outsidehis party for his integrity andstraightforwardness


THE TRANSFER of ZhangQingli, the tough Han official,who masterminded the repres-sion in the TibetanAutonomous Region after the

March/April 2008 unrest, has been wide-ly reported in the media. But this waspart of a larger exercise. The China Dailymentioned the large-scale reshuffle ofregional party bosses and Governors inChina: “More regional leadership reshuf-fles may be expected following changesof the top leaders of five provincial-levelregions, as the Chinese Communist Par-

ty of China (CCP) gears up for next year’sParty Congress.”

Obviously, the change, which receivedthe most coverage, was the transfer ofChen Quanguo, the Governor of Hebeiprovince, who was appointed Secretary ofthe CCP committee of the TibetanAutonomous Region (TAR), replacingZhang Qingli.

The latter, involved for the past 12years in minority areas particularly inXinjiang and Tibet, has now been sent asParty Chief to Hebei province, borderingBeijing and Tianjin municipalities.

More unusual, Zhang Qingwei, 50, tillrecently President of a leading commer-cial airplane manufacturer, was nominat-ed acting Governor of the same Hebeiprovince (replacing Chen Quanguo). Apolitical researcher at the Chinese Acade-my of Social Sciences commented: “Busi-nessmen-turned-political leaders canmake the best use of their socialresources to attract investment for a rela-tively underdeveloped region.”

Some in India will look at the reshuf-fle with admiration; in China, leadersturning 65 years of age are shown the

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China has recently reshuffled key party officials and administrators in various provinces. Whatare its implications for Tibet and India? CLAUDE ARPI tries to answer

CRITICAL APPOINTMENTS: Thepolicies of the newly appointed leaderslike Chen Quanguo (right) and ZhangQingwei (left) will go a long waytowards shaping the destiny of therestive region

PREPARING THE BIG CHANGE PREPARING THE BIG CHANGE

retirement door; this is the standard agefor ministerial-level officials to quit pub-lic affairs. In India, the retirement age forpoliticians is still the grave or the pyre(several recently appointed Governorsare above the canonic age of 80). Thisparticular Chinese policy is worth emu-lating; it certainly makes a difference interms of dynamism and flexibility.

But the most important change forIndia (which hosts more than a lakhTibetan refugees) was the departure ofZhang Qingli and the arrival of ChenQuanguo.

According to his official biography,Chen Quanguo, 55, is a native of PingyuCounty in Henan. He was Deputy Secre-tary of the CCP Henan Provincial Com-mittee between April 2003 and November2009; then he was ‘elected’ Governor ofHebei Provincial People’s Governmentduring the 11th Provincial People’s Con-gress in January 2011. Chen is also analternate member of the 17th CCP Cen-tral Committee.

THE SELECTION PROCESSOne question comes to mind: how was heselected to serve in the tough and presti-gious post in Tibet? (Twenty years agoPresident Hu Jintao also served as PartySecretary in the Tibet AutonomousRegion, before being promoted to thePolitburo).

A friend suggested, ‘by Russianroulette’; Tibetans may think that ‘Mo’(divination) was used. (The leadership ofthe Chinese Communist Party seems tohave recently become experts in theGolden Urn lottery!). But his selectionwas probably more ‘scientific’, thoughChen has apparently never been in con-tact with ‘restive Tibetans’ or otherminorities before (this may be a pluspoint, but only the future will tell).

In Hebei, Chen had replaced Hu Chun-hua, the rising star of the Sixth Genera-tion of the Communist Party, who wastransferred as Party Secretary of InnerMongolia in January. Hu Chunhua, whohad earlier served in Tibet (and was oneof the few Han cadres who could speakTibetan), is expected to become PrimeMinister 10 to 15 years from now.

One explanation for Chen’s nomina-tion is his contact with Li Keqiang, Chi-na’s future Premier. Chen and Li servedtogether for five years in Henan Province.Li probably suggested Chen’s name.

In an essay on the Sixth Generation ofleaders (Changing of the Guard: Beijing

grooms Sixth-Generation cadres for 2020’spublished by the Jamestown Foundation),Willy Lam speaks of Li Yuanchao, thepresent Chief of the CCP OrganisationDepartment, responsible for the selectionof the cadres: “When he was Vice-PartySecretary and Party Secretary of JiangsuProvince from 2000 to 2007, Li Yuanchaomade a name for himself for broadening‘intra-party democracy’, especially the‘scientific’ selection of cadres throughmeans including popular assessment andrecommendation. After becoming Direc-tor of the CCP Organisation Departmentin October 2007, however, Li has shiftedhis attention from ‘scientific’ human-resources theories to the time-honoured,Confucianist preoccupation with recruit-ing virtuous cadres. While visiting Hei-longjiang Province in late 2008, he toldlocal officials that his first priority was topick “people who are ambitious, whowant to do good things, who are capableand who will not make a big mess [of thepolitical situation].”

On another provincial outing atabout the same time, Li said he waslooking for cadre who could “upholdeconomic development, maintain peo-ple’s standard of living, preserve socio-political stability and ensure the imple-mentation of the zhongyang’s [centralauthorities] policies”. Li’s primary con-

cern is that cadres being groomed forfast-track promotion “should passmuster in both ‘de’ [morality] and com-petence, with priority given to ‘de’.Quite a number of cadres have goneastray not due to the question of profes-sional competence but because of laps-es in morality,” Li said.

Chen’s ‘morality’ is probably good; thepoint remains that he will have to dealwith Tibetan (and Han) cadres with 20 or30 years experience in the region (likeRaidi or Phagpala). It remains to be seenhow he will manage.

Jampa Puntsog, presently the numbertwo in the TAR Party, will probably retiresoon (he will cross the age limit) and Pad-ma Choling (alias Pema Trinley), the TARGovernor may then be elevated to thenumber two slot. Interestingly, PadmaCholing is several years ‘senior’ to ChenQuanguo. On a positive note, Chen didnot attack the Dalai Lama in his firstspeech consecrated to the ‘development’of Tibet.

XI JINPING’S VISIT TO THE INDIANBORDERThe change of guard in Lhasa comeshardly a month after the significant visitof the Chinese Vice-President Xi Jinpingto Tibet. Xi, who is to take over Hu Jintao’smantle next year, is also Vice-Chairman

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MONUMENTAL MOMENT: It remains to be seen how the change in leadership willaffect life in Tibet

of the Central Military Commission. Dur-ing his tour of the Himalayan region, hemet PLA officers stationed in Lhasa, andalso visited Bayi, a modern Chinese townon the banks of river Nyang (a tributary ofthe Brahmaputra).

Bayi is located north of McMahonLine in Nyingtri Prefecture. It is the firsttime that such a senior leader has ven-tured into this area, which is also thebase for a purported mega dam on theBrahmaputra.

Bayi is a special place: it is a town runby the PLA. ‘Bayi’ means ‘Eight-one” or‘August 1’; referring to the anniversary ofthe Nanchang Uprising, considered to bethe founding date of the People’s Libera-tion Army. Today, it is one of the two mainPLA bases in Tibet.

Xi spoke of stability to the PLA andPAPF (People’s Armed Police Force) post-ed on the border: “People of all ethnicitiesin Tibet need to understand that stabilityleads to prosperity and separatist activi-ties lead to disasters.” This has been theleitmotif of the visit, probably becauseTibet has never been so unstable in thepast 60 years.

He did not mention China’s southernneighbour, India, just stating that heappreciated “the [Army’s] contributionsto the social progress, ethnic unity andthe improvement of local people’s livesin the area”. Earlier, he had describedTibet “as an important national securityscreen for the country”; a rather mild

description for a ‘disputed’ border.The objective of his visit was clearly not

to create more problems with India, but tosomehow ‘stabilise’ the restive region.

Observers noted that General ChenBingde, PLA Chief of General Staff whohad accompanied Xi in Lhasa, was notwith the future President in Bayi. He hadleft for Ngari, Western Tibet, with someother members of the Beijing delegation.Had he taken the PLA Chief of Staff withhim to Bayi, Xi Jinping would have proba-bly alarmed India.

CHEN QUANGUO TAKES OVERIn his first meeting in Lhasa, Chen Quan-guo declared: “Tremendous efforts areneeded to boost development in Tibetand the region’s long-term stability.”

Earlier, he had been introduced byZhang Jinan, Vice-Minister of the Organi-sation Department of the CPC CentralCommittee, who explained that Chen had“started at the grassroots’ level, gainedexperience through his work in variousposts. He is familiar with the work of theParty as well as the economy, and is goodat handling the overall situation. Thedecision by the central authorities wasout of consideration for the actual workneeds, a spirit of cadre exchange, and thereal leadership situation in Tibet”.

It is difficult to say whether ZhangQingli’s transfer to Hebei was connectedwith Xi Jinping’s visit to Tibet.

In his first speech as Party Secretary,Chen Quanguo cited Hu Jintao four timesbut not a word was spoken of Xi Jinping.Does this mean that Chen will follow thehard-line policies put in place by Hu Jin-tao when he was Tibet Party Secretary atthe end of the 1980’s?

One worrying sign has been that hard-line Tibetan cadre Raidi has been seeneverywhere in the Tibetan region since XiJinping’s visit (the Vice-President visitedhis house in Lhasa). He presided at the

annual summer pastoral festival in hishome prefecture of Nagchu.

A China watcher pointed out “Whenthe Chinese media would go into over-drive about the wonderful benefits of thisor that policy, it meant that that policyprobably existed nowhere in the countryand officials were only bickering amongthemselves about it.”

Raidi also participated in other officialmeetings, he sat prominently on the stageduring Third Meeting of the China TibetCultural Preservation and DevelopmentForum next to Zhang Qingli, the then Par-ty Secretary and read the Work Report forthe Forum.

This means that the hardliners are inthe forefront. It is difficult to expect radi-cal changes in the months ahead.

In the meantime, repression continuesunabated in the Tibetan areas of Gansu,Sichuan and Qinghai. On August 15, 2011,Tsewang Norbu, a 29-year- old monk ofNyitso Monastery in Kham Tawo inKandze, immolated himself to protestChinese rule in Tibet.

The Tibetan Centre for Human Rightsand Democracy reported: “For 10 minuteshe raised slogans like ‘Freedom in Tibet’and the ‘Return of His Holiness the DalaiLama to Tibet’ while scattering leafletswith similar messages at Chume Bridge inthe centre of Tawo, before burning him-self with petrol …After the monks of themonastery carried back the body of thedeceased monk to their monastery toperform the last rites and rituals, Chinesetroops tried to forcibly take the body fromthe monks.” Later thousands of Chinesetroops were deployed in and around themonastery.

Though several recent incidents haveoccurred in areas like Labrang, Kirti,Kantze or Lithang, not directly underChen Quanguo’s jurisdiction, the samekind of resentment exists in the TibetanAutonomous Region.

The present reshuffle is a real rehearsalfor a much larger one in a year’s time:most of the national leaders will thenhave reached retirement age and willhave to vacate their place for the youngergeneration. The success or failure of the‘regional’ reshuffle, more particularly theChen Quanguo experiment in Tibet,should be watched carefully, if one wantsto get a chance to assess the future of theMiddle Kingdom.

(The author is a French expert onChina and Tibet based in South India)

www.geopolitics.in October 2011

ON A POSITIVENOTE, CHEN

DID NOT ATTACK THE

DALAI LAMA INHIS FIRSTSPEECH

gDIPLOMACY

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gGEOPO L I T I C S

gEXCERPTS

Maleeha Lodhi needs no introduction in South Asia or for that matter elsewhere. Thisdistinguished, erudite and articulate Pakistani journalist, academic, and diplomat (she has

served both in Washington and London) has been an indefatigable advocate of the Pakistaniposition at forums across the globe. Maleeha was the first woman to represent Pakistan inLondon. She had a record two stints as ambassador to the US (in 1994 and then in 1999) —

the longest-serving Pakistani ambassador to the United States.Pakistan: Beyond the ‘Crisis State’ is a collection of essays edited by her that takes a

contemporaneous, though, not necessarily, dispassionate and detached view on what afflictsPakistan today or its relationship with its neighbours in South Asia and its true destiny as it

battles the contradictions and the fissures that encompass society across the border.Frankly, there is much food for thought in the volume. At least many of the distinguished

contributors have tried to critically examine the fault lines and how to manage the seismicconvulsions. Is there a panacea to get out of the present rut? Not one essay is suggesting that,

but each one offers the few first steps in that direction. Surely, there can’t be a better start.Here is a brief extract from Ayesha Jalal’s essay on Pakistani security concerns and India

UPHILL BATTLE: Pakistan faces a difficult struggle against thedivergent forces within itself that are pulling the country apart

DECODING THE ‘CRISIS STATE’

IS A TURNABOUT POSSIBLE?Pakistan cannot change course with-out neutralising or satisfying thesecurity concerns of its all-powerfulArmy. So is there a realistic hope for aturnabout? The international com-munity led by the USA, and includingthe European Union, NATO and theUN, has to urgently tackle the prob-lems facing Pakistan and Afghanistan

in a holistic fashion. This entails assisting Pakistan’scivilian government to sort out its political and econom-ic difficulties and weaning the Army away from its dead-ly gamble with religious extremism.

Peace will remain a forlorn hope so long as Pakistanand India continue to see their interests in Afghanistanas a zero sum game. The two nuclear states have toappreciate the threat a war-torn Afghanistan and unsta-ble north western tribal areas in Pakistan pose to thefuture of the subcontinent as a whole. Washington toohas to realise that the policy of de-hyphenating relationswith India and Pakistan has its limitations and what isconsidered an opportunity in one may be the cause ofthe problem in the other.

The idea of the two archrivals sharing an interconnected

future will raise the hackles of those used to viewing thepast and the present through the refracting prism of ide-ology rather than history. Cooperating not subvertingneighbours can be a more effective way for nation statesto re-establish control over rebellious regional satraps.An understanding between Rajeev Gandhi and BenazirBhutto in the late 80s took the sting out of the Sikhuprising in the Indian Punjab that had been aided andabetted by the ISI.

In marked contrast is the unresolved issue of Kashmir,which New Delhi imputes to Pakistan’s backing for thepopular insurgency in the valley and support for ‘cross-border terrorism’. In the moral one-upmanship charac-teristic of their relations, Islamabad regularly accusesIndia of sponsoring acts of sabotage in Pakistani citiesand, more recently, of fomenting dissent in Balochistan.The air of mutual distrust suffocating creative thinkingin the Indian and Pakistani capitals has kept Kashmir onthe boil. This has been detrimental not only for theKashmiris but also for Indo-Pakistan trade relations thatare widely believed to hold benefits for both countries ata time of crisis in the global economy. The Kashmir con-flict has given Pakistan’s military establishment anexcuse for not abandoning its Afghan policy. Once Amer-ica attacked Iraq and lowered its threat perception fromAfghanistan, Pakistani intelligence hawks convincedMusharraf and his top generals that their self-interestdemanded keeping lines open with the Taliban andreviving contacts with some of the ISl’s former wardsamong the Afghan warlords. Accused by Americans ofduplicity and not doing enough, the Army leadership haspointed to India’s heightened presence in Afghanistan,which rejects the Durand line as its official border withPakistan and claims the North West Frontier Provinceand parts of Balochistan.

From a military perspective, letting India use its influ-ence over Kabul to squeeze Pakistan from both the east-ern and the western fronts is suicidal and the reason whythe Army top brass has resisted US dictation inAfghanistan. The contours of Pakistan’s India centredstrategic doctrine were etched soon after independenceby a civilian leadership, which instead of addressingdomestic political problems made the acquisition ofKashmir a national cause celebre. With the Army’s rise todominance in the state, the legacy of inconclusive Indo-Pakistan wars over Kashmir and the psychologicallybruising defeat of 1971, no elected civil}an governmenthas been permitted to alter the time-honoured securityparadigm. Despite an ostensibly free press, out of thebox discussions of strategic security are deemed anti-national. For the few who have questioned Pakistan’sdefence doctrine, many more take the path of leastresistance by accepting the Army’s claim that Indians,not the Taliban, are the main enemy.

(Excerpted from the chapter The Past as Presentby Ayesha Jalal)

www.geopolitics.in

(81)October 2011

gEXCERPTS

g

Pakistan: Beyond the Crisis StateEdited by Maleeha LodhiRupa Publishers, Pages — 391, Price — `495 Year of Publication — 2011

RESTIVE HOMELAND: In the north-western regions ofPakistan, the people have been struggling with uncertainty bornout of years of conflict


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ON OCTOBER 7, 2011, senior officials ofIndia, Japan and the United States arescheduled to hold a trilateral dialogue on“regional and global issues of mutual inter-est” in Tokyo. It will involve a candid

exchange of views among the key players in the IndianOcean and Asia-Pacific region and possible ways tostrengthen maritime security cooperation.

The strategic elites of Japan that I interacted withduring a trip last month to Tokyo to attend a sympo-sium on “Japan-India relations in the new Asia-Pacificera”, hosted by Keizai Koh Centre, wereunanimous that India must play a “stabil-ising role” in the Asia-Pacific.

Let me quote Hiroshi Hirabayashi, Vice-President of the Japan Forum on Interna-tional Relations and a former Ambassadorto India: “China is not only trying to catch-ing up economically but also unmistakablyaiming at challenging others, including theUnited States, militarily. On the contrary,India is regarded by Asians and Americansalike as a stabilising power and a largerengagement in Asian and world affairs is welcomed.Japan and the US, while remedying and consolidatingtheir alliance, should induce China to act peacefullyand constructively. At the same time, they should applysophisticated diplomacies to engage India to preventChina from disturbing peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.”

Why is China’s rise discomforting Japan and otherAsia-Pacific countries? As Hitoshi Tanaka, Chairman ofthe Institute for International Strategy at the JapanResearch Institute says, the discomfort is because ofthe fact that along with China’s increasing defenceexpenditure (their latest defence budget stands at $91.7 billion, the second highest in the world), onenotices a dangerous and assertive Chinese attitude onregional security affairs. Tanaka, who as a career diplo-mat served as Japan’s Deputy Minister for ForeignAffairs, pointed out in this regard China’s rising militan-cy in the East China Sea and South China Sea.

These two Seas are important in more senses thanone. Vital “Sea Lines of Communication” (SLOCs) passthrough them. They are vast reserves of oil and naturalresources. They are significant for credible sea-basednuclear deterrents. Above all, they possess islands, allof which are claimed by China, resulting in territorialdisputes with Japan and almost all important SouthEast Asian nations.

In the east, China contests with Japan in exercisingsovereignty over the islands of Senkaku. In the SouthChina Sea, it has disputes with Vietnam and Taiwanover the control of the Paracel group of islands. Thenthere are disputes over the sovereignty of the Spratlyschain of islands involving China, Vietnam and Taiwan,

Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei. The incident over the Senkaku islands not long ago

has worried Japan. In the South China Sea, China hasfought and threatened Vietnam as many as five times:in 1974, in 1988 ( causing loss of more than 70 lives), in2007 and on May 11 this year. In 1995, China made aunilateral move by capturing the Mischief Reef,claimed by the Philippines. In fact, since February thisyear there have been seven incidents in the South Chi-na Sea involving China that have been viewed by thePhilippines with “serious concern”. Manila is preparing

to file a report before the United Nations onthese instances of Chinese intrusion orprovocative actions.

It is against this background that theJapanese strategic community has appreci-ated India’s firm and principled response toChinese objections of Indian naval and sci-entific presence in the South China Sea.They have keenly followed how India,despite Chinese protests, has been engagingwith the Vietnamese Navy and continues topursue oil and natural gas exploration in two

Vietnamese blocks in the South China Sea at Vietnam’srequest. The question here is the principles of freedomof navigation in international waters, including in theSouth China Sea, and the right of passage in accordancewith accepted principles of international law. There isalso the 1982 United Nations Convention on Law of theSea (1982 UNCLOS) that allows coastal countries exclu-sive economic zones extending from the edge of the ter-ritorial sea out to 200 nautical miles.

Japanese advocate a “joint leadership in the region”,and in this scheme they want India to be a part of thatleadership. There is no reason why India should haveany reservation. After all, India needs to have a profilein this part of the world, given the fact that India’s totaltrade volume with East Asian economies, includingthat of China, now exceeds that with the EuropeanUnion or the United States, while more than half ofIndia’s trade now goes through the Malacca and Singa-pore Straits.

Besides, India is a “strategic partner” of Japan, SouthKorea, Russia and the United States, all of whom havevital stakes in the Asia-Pacific region and are apprecia-tive of the Indian presence. In particular, the IndianNavy places energy security and sea-lane protection aspriorities. This economic reality drives India’s navalstrategy, as enunciated in December 2006 by the thenChief of Naval Staff Admiral Suresh Mehta. He hadexpanded the conceptual construct of India’s “greaterstrategic neighbourhood” to include potential sourcesof oil and gas imports located across the globe — fromVenezuela to the Sakhalin Islands.

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