Geopolitics Theories and Myanmar’s Strategic Location

Presented byKo Toe Gyi ယ���ၾကညရ� စဖတအ�သင�

12th October 2013 (12:00) PM

The Term “Geopolitics”

Relation between Politics and Territory.

Comprises the art and practice of analyzing , prescribing, forecasting and the using of political power over a given territory.

Geopolitics Geopolitics is the study of the effects of

geography (both human and physical) on international politics and international relation.

Geopolitics = Geography + Politics Geopolitics is Macro-politics as widely

and broadly. Political Geography is Micro-politics that

have study as detail of Geographical Ingredients.

Geopolitics traditionally studies the links between political power and geographic space, and examines strategic prescriptions based on the relative importance of land power and sea power in world history.

The Most Famous Geopolitics Theorist.

Alfred Thayar Mahan - Sea Power Nation

Sir Halford Mackinder – Heartland Theory

Nicholas Spyman – Rimland Theory Friedrich Ratzel – Political Geography Samuel Huntington – Clash of

Civilization

Karl Haushofer

Rudolf Kjellen

Halford Mackinder

Friedich Ratzal

Alfred Thayer Mahan

Typical Characteristics of Geopolitics are -- Location, (Esp; Strategic Location)

- Size, - Climate,- Topography (Study of the surface shape and feature of the Earth.)- Demography (Study of Human

Population) and- Natural Resources .

There is the Two Types of Boundaries.

1. Natural Boundary2. Artificial Boundary

Natural Boundary

Artificial Boundary

•Major RegionNorth America

Latin AmericaAsia PacificWestern, Central and Eastern

EuropeMiddle EastAfrica

Determination of International Boundaries.

3 Stages of Boundary Determination.

1. Definition of the Boundary2. Delimitation of the Boundary and 3. Demarcation of the Boundary.

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Continuous Zone - "infringement of its customs, fiscal, immigration or sanitary laws and regulations within its territory or territorial sea".

exclusive economic zone, including fishing, mining, oil exploration, and any pollution of those resources.

Three Concepts of Power

1. Land Power2. Sea Power3. Air Power

Land Power

Sea Power

Air Power

Heartland Theory

Rimland Theory

Mackinder

Spyman

Mahan

Technological Advantage

Heartland

Rimland

Sea Power

Land Power

Nature of State Power• Ingredients of State Power Potential

Natural Sources of Power Tangible Sources of Power Intangible Sources of Power

Natural Sources of Power

Intangible Sources of Power

Tangible Sources of PowerNature of State Power

Geography Natural

Resources Population

1. Geography2. Natural Resources3. Population

Natural Sources of

Power

1. IndustrialDevelopment

2. Level of Infrastructure3. Characteristics of Military

Tangible Sources of

Power

1. National Image2. Public Support

3. Leadership

Intangible Sources of

Power

There important Natural sources of Power are

1. geographical size and position2. natural resources3. population

Geography

Size

Strategic Location

Heartland Rimland

Wide Middle Small

Size

1. Pro-rupted Shape2. Fragmented Shape3. Perforated Shape4. Compacted Shape5. Elongated Shape

Shape

I. OpenII. CloseIII. Island

Geographical size and location are the natural sources of power recognized first by international relation theorists.

A large geographic expanse gives a state automatic power.

For Example,1. Russia 5. India2. China 6. Canada3. USA 7. Brazil4. Australia

Long Borders

May be weakness Must be defended An expensive Often problem task

Natural Resources- 2nd Source of Natural Power

Controlling a large geographic expanse is not a positive ingredient of power unless that expanse contains natural resources.

Petroleum-exporting states- Kuwait, Qatar, UAE

which are geographically small.

States need oil and are ready to pay dearly for it, and will even go to war when access to it is denied.

Since 2006, Russia has used that power potential , cutting off natural gas supplies to Ukraine and hence slowing supplies to Europe, which gets one-quarter of its gas through Ukraine.

The absence of natural resources does not mean that a state has no power potential .

However, Japan is not rich in natural resources, but it has parlayed other elements of power so as to make itself an economic powerhouse.

Population is a third natural source of power.- China (1.3 Billion)- India (1.2 Billion)- USA (307 million)

Automatically give power potential and often great power.

States with small, highly educated, skilled populations can fill large Economic Power.

Such as- Switzerland- Norway- Austria and Singapore.

States with large but relative poor population, such as Ethiopia (with 79 million people but GNP of only $800 per capital), can exercise less power.

Two Debate Mackinder and Spyman

Mahan

Location

Base on Land

Base on Sea

Two different views about the importance of geography in international relations emerged at the turn of the century within the realist tradition.

In the late 1890, the naval officer and historian Alfred Mahan (1840-1914) wrote of the importance of controlling the sea.

The state that controls the ocean routes controls the world.

In 1904, the British geographer Sir Halford Mackinder (1861-1947) countered the Mahan’s View.

To Mackinder, The State that had the most power was

the one that controlled the Eurasian geographic “Heartland”.

Russia’s lack of easy access to the sea and its resultant inability to wield naval power have been viewed as persistent weaknesses in that country’s power potential.

Sir Halford John Mackinder (15 February 1861 – 6 March 1947) was an English geographer and Director of the London School of Economics

who is regarded as one of the founding fathers of both geopolitics and geo-strategy.

Heartland Theory Who rules Eastern Europe commands

the Heartland of Eurasia. Who rules the Heartland commands the

World Island of Europe, Asia and Africa. Who rules the World Island commands

the World.

World Island or Core = Heartland = Eurasia + AfricaPeriphery = Americas, the British & OceaniaHeartland (Pivot Area) – Central Europe, Ukraine, Western Russian

Mackinder’s Theory – Very influential during the two World

wars and the Cold War for Germany and Russia.

Weakness; But many geographers came to see as it’s over-reliance on Environmental and technological Determination.

Nicholas John Spykman (1893–1943) was a Dutch-American geo-strategist.

A Sterling Professor of International Relations, teaching as part of the Institute for International Studies at Yale University, one of his prime concerns was making his students geographically literate—geopolitics was impossible without geographic understanding.

He was married to the children's novelist E. C. Spykman.

He died of cancer at the age of 49.

Rimland Theory

Who controls the rimland rules Eurasia; Who rules Eurasia controls the destinies

of the world.

Alfred Thayer Mahan (September 27, 1840 – December 1, 1914) was a United States Navy flag officer, geostrategist, and historian, who has been called "the most important American strategist of the nineteenth century.“

His concept of "sea power" was based on the idea

that countries with greater naval power will have greater worldwide impact; it was most famously presented in The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660–1783 (1890).

The concept had an enormous influence in shaping the strategic thought of navies across the world, especially in the United States, Germany, Japan and Britain, ultimately causing a European naval arms race in the 1890s, which included the United States.

His ideas still permeate the U.S. Navy Doctrine.

Sea Power Nation

Mahan believed that national greatness was associated with the

sea, with its commercial usage in peace and its control in war.

His goal was to discover the laws of history that determined who controlled the seas.

His theoretical framework came from an emphasis on strategic locations (such as

chokepoints, canals), as well as quantifiable levels of fighting power in a fleet

The primary mission of a navy was to secure the command of the sea. This not only permitted the maintenance of sea

communications for one's own ships while denying their use to the enemy but also, if necessary, provided the means for close supervision of neutral trade.

This control of the sea could not be achieved by destruction of commerce but only by destroying or neutralizing the enemy fleet.

This called for concentration of naval forces composed of capital ships, not unduly large but numerous, well manned with crews thoroughly trained, and operating under the principle that the best defense is an aggressive offense.

Friedrich Ratzel’s Political Geography

Analysis on the importance of mobility and the move from sea to rail transport.

But he failed to predict the revolutionary impact of air power.

Control of Key Oceanic Choke Points The Straits of Malacca Gibraltar Hormuz Dardanelles The Persian Gulf Suez Panama Canals - is viewed as a positive indicator of

Power potential.

Strait of Malacca

Strait of Gibraltar

Panama

Suez

Dardanelles

Hormuz

Persian Gulf

Cuba Missiles Crisis

Falkland Crisis

Summary

Size

Strategic Location

Important of Resources

Rim Area

Pivot Area

Related with Sea Power

Natural Resources

Human Resources

Population

Myanmar’s Strategic Location

Myanmar China India Bangladesh

Area (sq.km) total: 678,500 s land: 657,740 water: 20,760

9,561,000 3,287,263 148,393

Population 52.8 Million 1351 Million 1237 Million 154.7 Million

Religion Buddhism Buddhism, Taoism

Hindu,80.5% Islam, 83%

Government Types

Communist State

Federal Republic

Parliamentary Democracy

Land boundaries:

total: 5,876 km border countries: Bangladesh 193 km, China

2,185 km, India 1,463 km, Laos 235 km, Thailand 1,800 km

Coastline: 1,930 km

Population: 42,909,464 (2005 est.)

Age structure:

0-14 years: 27.2% (male 5,967,487/female 5,717,795) 15-64 years: 67.8% (male 14,448,887/female 14,641,419) 65 years and over: 5% (male 939,092/female 1,194,784)

(2005 est.)

Case Study

Sino-Burma Pipeline Dewei deep Sea port

Sino-Burma pipelines refers to planned oil and natural gas pipelines linking Burma's deep-water port of Kyaukphyu (Sittwe) in the Bay of Bengal with Kunming in Yunnan province of China.

In December 2005, Petro China signed a deal with Burma's Government to purchase natural gas over a 30 year period.

The oil pipeline will have a capacity of 12 million tons of crude oil per year. It would diversify China's crude oil imports routes from the Middle East and Africa, and avoid traffic through the Strait of Malacca

The second problem is that 80 % of China’s imported oil goes through the Straits of Malacca

They fear that the USA or India in the future could use that as a chock point and cut of China’s import of Oil

Geopolitical Role of Dewei deep Sea port Dawei, located in Southern Myanmar, on the

Andaman coast facing the Indian Ocean – long been a strategic prize

In Nov 2010, Myanmar Port Authority signed a USD $8.6 billion deal with Italian-Thai Development

Myanmar’s First Special Economic Zone A deep sea port stretching 250 sq km (97 sq mile)

industrial estate including a steel mill, fertilizer plant and a coal fired power station and oil refinery

Japanese Nippon Steel – said to be a potential investor in the Dawei port project including a coal fired power plant, an industrial center, oil and gas pipelines and an eight-lane highway.

Geopolitical Role of Dewei deep Sea port Gateway to Indo-China and potentially the world

biggest industrial estate Sea and land (railway and road) infrastructure links to

Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam Myanmar & Thailand – Construction of a 130 km road

from the Dawei port to Thailand – almost complete 10 year project involving Thailand and Myanmar

totaling US$ 8 billion Thailand’s hope to create a more efficient, less

congested route for its exports to Europe and the Middle East

Dawei port – 10 times the size of Laem Chabang, Thailand’s largest port on the Gulf of Thailand

Geopolitical Role of Dewei deep Sea port Dawei Development Project – invigorate the country’s

impoverished economy and revolutionize regional trade

Pipelines will transport gas from the coast of western Rakhine state and oil from the Middle East and Africa across the country to China

Dawei – a “short cut” for crude oil coming into Southeast Asia from the Middle East

The port project – could create up to 100,000 jobs

Myanmar’s Coastline – 1300 Miles Have the Close position from North to India Ocean Best the get of Natural Sunlight on this Ocean where

Growth water organism Sufficient for Food Security at Military and Economic

Summary

China Centric Sino-Burma Pipeline Dawei Deep Sea port

What taken to National Interest for Myanmar to use Geopolitics Advantage Between China and India?

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Ko Toe Gyi