GEO - Weather Ocean Water

Proposed Weather SBA and cross-linking work packages

TIGGE – what is it?

THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble A major component of THORPEX, a 10-year

WMO international research programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy & utility of high-impact weather forecasts up to ~2 weeks ahead.

GEO task WE-06-03 – “TIGGE and the Development of a Global Interactive Forecast System for Weather”

TIGGE in brief Ten of the leading global forecast centres are providing

regular ensemble predictions to support research on predictability, dynamical processes and development of probabilistic forecasting methods.

Many weather forecast situations are low probability but high risk – unlikely but catastrophic. Probabilistic forecasting is a powerful tool to improve early warning of high-impact events.

The TIGGE data are available for scientific research from three archive centres: ECMWF (Europe), NCAR (America) and CMA (China)

More information at http://tigge.ecmwf.int

Scope of Work Packages

Two main Weather SBA strands:TIGGE Research and developmentApplication of TIGGE and development of

Global Interactive Forecast System (GIFS) Include links to Water & Ecosystem SBAs

1. TIGGE research & development

1. Improving access to ensemble forecast data1. Integration of TIGGE data base into GCI2. Additional archive functionality3. Extension to cover TIGGE-LAM (regional ensembles)

2. Improving access to observation data 1. Synoptic observations 2. Gridded data (initially rainfall)

3. Improving the Ensemble Prediction Systems 1. Coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling (- ecosystem SBA)2. Improved representation of model uncertainties

4. Calibration and combination of ensemble forecasts1. Statistical bias correction2. Multi-centres ensembles

5. Common Verification Framework

2. Applications of TIGGE data

1. GIFS product development to support forecasts of severe weather 1. Tropical & extratropical cyclones2. Heavy precipitation3. Strong wind

2. Application of TIGGE & GIFS to other SBAs1. Flood prediction (water SBA) 2. Ocean / coastal applications (ecosystem SBA)

3. Evaluation of products in regional pilot projects1. in conjunction with WMO Severe Weather Forecast Demsonstration

Project2. and other regional pilot projects

4. Shared development of algorithms and software1. Establish a common toolbox

Weather SBA Priorities

Priority A*(1.0 Meuro) Enhancements to TIGGE archive (1.1 and 1.2a) Evaluation of products in regional projects (2.3)

Priority A (1.2 Meuro) Products development to support SWFDP (2.1) Research on ensemble calibration & combination (1.4) Applications to water & ecosystem SBAs (2.2)

Priority B (0.4 Meuro) Improvement of EPS (1.3)

Priority C (0.6 Meuro) Gridded observations (1.2b) Common verification framework (1.5) Software toolbox (2.4)