Geo-spatial Analysis in

Transit Demand Estimation utilizing ITS Applications

Peter Bang, Ph.D., AEI

GIS in Transit ConferenceOctober 16, 2013Washington, DC

Contents

Introduction of This Study RTC’s ITS Applications GIS Analysis What We Found

Introduction of This Study

Current Transit Demand Estimation

Conventional Travel Demand Model Simple Linear Est. based on Land Use, Route LOS, Historic Data Sketchy Route Assignments by Experts, Surveys Try and Error Adjustment based on Experts’ Expertise Multiple non-linear Regression Est. with AVL, APC, & Parcel-Level

Land Use Data

Reno/Sparks : The Study Area

RTC’s Bus Routes in 2012

RTC’s Transit Operation

RTC’s Current ITS Application

Automatic Vehicle Location (AVL) on approximately 147 fixed-route, paratransit and supervisor vehicles

Automatic Passenger Counters(APC) Transit Signal Priority (TSP) installed on at least 56 fixed-route

vehicles Computer-Aided Dispatch Real-Time Traveler Information Web based Trip Planning tool

CONTENTS

Raw Data (with all the dots)

Example of Raw Data from ITS

AADAY AATRIPHR AAROUTE AAQSTOP AASTOP AANAMSTP AAADRCTN AAON AAOFF SON SOFF STOTAL AALOAD AALAT AALONG NNSMPLES

1 3 101 30 0 MEADOWOOD MALL I 4.75 .00 5 0 5 4.75 39.472090 -119.783830 1

1 3 101 45 8 VIRGINIA/ I 4.67 .00 5 0 5 12.67 39.497743 -119.799130 1

1 3 101 46 9 VIRGINIA/GROVE I .00 .00 0 0 0 12.67 39.501857 -119.801183 1

1 3 101 47 10 VIRGINIA/ I .00 .33 0 0 0 12.33 39.503177 -119.801847 1

1 3 101 48 11 VIRGINIA/WELLS I .33 .00 0 0 0 12.67 39.507447 -119.803957 1

1 3 101 49 12 VIRGINIA/HOLCOMB I .00 .00 0 0 0 12.67 39.509290 -119.804810 1

1 3 101 50 13 VIRGINIA/ARROYO I .00 .00 0 0 0 12.67 39.511830 -119.805967 1

1 3 101 51 14 VIRGINIA/VASSAR I .33 .00 0 0 0 13.00 39.513160 -119.806577 1

1 3 101 52 15 VIRGINIA/CENTER I .33 .00 0 0 0 13.33 39.515240 -119.807530 1

1 3 101 53 16 VIRGINIA/TAYLOR I .33 .00 0 0 0 13.67 39.516563 -119.808140 1

1 3 101 56 19 VIRGINIA/LIBERTY I .00 1.00 0 1 1 12.67 39.520697 -119.810027 1

1 3 101 57 20 CENTER/RYLAND I .00 .00 0 0 0 12.67 39.522863 -119.810473 1

1 3 101 58 21 CENTER/STATE I .00 1.67 0 2 2 11.00 39.524357 -119.810807 1

1 3 101 59 22 CENTER/1ST TO 2ND I .00 1.67 0 2 2 9.33 39.526590 -119.811507 1

1 3 101 99 3 VIRGINIA/KIETZKE I .00 .00 0 0 0 6.33 39.480710 -119.789207 1

1 3 101 506 1 VIRGINIA/MEADWOOD CIR I .00 .00 0 0 0 4.75 39.473540 -119.784863 1

1 3 101 507 4 VIRGINIA/ I .00 .00 0 0 0 6.33 39.485227 -119.792403 1

1 3 101 508 5 VIRGINIA/PECKHAM I .33 .00 0 0 0 6.67 39.487947 -119.794387 1

1 3 101 509 6 VIRGINIA/MOANA I 1.00 .00 1 0 1 7.67 39.490247 -119.795497 1

1 3 101 510 7 VIRGINIA/GENTRY I .33 .00 0 0 0 8.00 39.493720 -119.797217 1

1 3 101 1411 2 VIRGINIA/MEADOWOOD MALL WAY I .00 .00 0 0 0 6.33 39.475560 -119.785550 1

1 3 101 1850 17 VIRGINIA/THOMA I .00 .00 0 0 0 13.67 39.518867 -119.809207 1

1 3 101 1977 23 BAY Q 4SS - EOL I .00 10.67 0 11 11 .33 39.530117 -119.811540 1

1 3 101 9999 999 Not Identified - Cal I .00 .00 0 0 0 .00 39.475863 -119.786853 1

1 4 2 98 10 YORK/PYRAMID I .00 .00 0 0 0 2.00 39.550660 -119.754020 1

1 4 2 100 11 YORK/11TH I .00 .00 0 0 0 2.00 39.550815 -119.758150 1

1 4 2 101 12 YORK/ROCK I .00 .00 0 0 0 2.00 39.550850 -119.760905 1

1 4 2 102 13 ROCK/VANCE I 1.00 .00 1 0 1 3.00 39.550690 -119.761905 1

1 4 2 103 14 ROCK/TYLER I .00 .00 0 0 0 3.00 39.549865 -119.762375 1

1 4 2 104 15 ROCK/GREENBRAE I 1.67 .00 2 0 2 3.67 39.547550 -119.762083 1

1 4 2 105 16 GREENBRAE/LORENA I .00 .00 0 0 0 3.25 39.547933 -119.767908 1

1 4 2 106 17 GREENBRAE/SULLIVAN I .00 .00 0 0 0 3.25 39.547755 -119.771693 1

1 4 2 107 18 GREENBRAE/EL RANCHO I .75 .25 1 0 1 3.75 39.547578 -119.775625 1

1 4 2 108 22 SILVERADA/FANTASTIC I .50 .00 1 0 1 5.75 39.546533 -119.782233 1

1 4 2 109 23 SILVERADA/PARADISE I .00 .00 0 0 0 5.75 39.544798 -119.782950 1

1 4 2 110 24 SILVERADA/ORCHID I .00 .00 0 0 0 5.75 39.543070 -119.783670 1

Bus Stops

Raw Data From GPS/APC

Raw Data From GPS/APC

Bus Stops

Demand Points

Demand Points

Demand Points in Thiessen/Buffer Area

Demand Points in Buffer Area

Demand Points in Thiessen-Buffer Area

Demand Points in Thiessen-Buffer Area

Dwelling Units

Dwelling Units Around Demand Points

Employments by 6 Categories

Dwelling Units & Employments Around Demand Points

Demand Estimation I

• All 575 Demand Points are IN;

= (.000)* (.000)*

= 0.965 = in .05 level significance

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

# of Routes

Tota

l Dem

and

Demand Estimation I

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

# of Routes

Tota

l Dem

and

Demand Estimation I

y = 88.631 + 4.8737·(# of Routes)3 R² = 0.9652

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

# of Routes

Tota

l Dem

and

Demand Estimation I

y = 88.631 + 4.8737·(# of Routes)3 R² = 0.9652

4th St. Station, 18 routes

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

# of Routes

Tota

l Dem

and

Demand Estimation I

y = 88.631 + 4.8737·(# of Routes)3 R² = 0.9652

4th St. Station, 18 routes

Meadowood Mall, 8 routes

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 200

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

# of Routes

Tota

l Dem

and

Demand Estimation I

y = 88.631 + 4.8737·(# of Routes)3 R² = 0.9652

4th St. Station, 18 routes

Meadowood Mall, 8 routes

Centennial Plaza, 6 routes

Demand Estimation II

= -51.615Ret8th (.001)* (.000)* (.000)*

(.000)* (.000)* (.000)*

(.008)* (.022)*= 0.592 = in .05 level significance

Conditions ; SELECT IF (rank >= 4).SELECT IF (Num_Routes >= 2 ).SELECT IF (DU_8 > median ).SELECT IF (SUM_TOT > 0 ).

Demand Estimation II

= -0.4 (.098)* (.000)* (.000)*

Acre84 (.000)* (.004)*

(.026)*= 0.632 = in .05 level significance

Conditions ; SELECT IF (rank >= 4).SELECT IF (Num_Routes >= 2 ).SELECT IF (Emp_8 > median ).SELECT IF (SUM_TOT > 0 ).

Demand Estimation II

= -11.5 (.066)* (.000)* (.000)*

Acre84 (.003)* (.019)*

= 0.623 = in .05 level significance

Conditions ; SELECT IF (rank >= 4).SELECT IF (Num_Routes >= 2 ).SELECT IF (Emp_4 > median ).SELECT IF (SUM_TOT > 0 ).

Demand Estimation II

Selection Conditions Major Explainable Factors # of Demand Points

Predictable Demand

Predictable Demand w/ Top3

Top 3 D.P. Regional Transit Hubs # of Routes 3 0.5% 37,350 39.2%

Eq. 1 Higher Pop. Density, Busy Routes

# of Routes, Near-by Employment, Populations 81 14.1% 11,426 12.0% 48,776 51.2%

Eq. 2Higher Emp. Density,

Busy Routes

# of Stops, Near-by Employment, Populations 88 15.3% 16,678 17.5% 54,028 56.7%

Eq. 3 # of Stops, Near-by Employment, Populations 85 14.8% 16,164 17.0% 53,514 56.2%

Total Demand 575 100.0% 95,236 100.0% 95,236 100.0%

Model Output Validation

# of Cleaned

AVL & APC data per

Stop

# of Demand

PointApplied Estimate

Tool# of

Sample size

Major Explainable Factors

Est. Demand

per Demand Point in

2011

Est. Demand

per Route in 2011

Comparison of Market Share per

Route

Est. Demand

per Route in 2035

32,766 samples

575 Demand

Points

Regression Eq. 0 3 # of Routes 0.996

575 Demand Points 26 Routes = 0.57 37 Routes

Regression Eq. 1

88 Demand

Points

# of Routes, Near-by Employment, Populations 0.592

Regression Eq. 2 # of Stops, Near-by Employment, Populations 0.632

Regression Eq. 3 # of Stops, Near-by Employment, Populations 0.623

Linear Eq. 4

484 Demand

Points

Population in ⅛-mile-buffer / Thiessen line

0.30 - 0.40Linear Eq. 5 Employment in ⅛-mile-buffer / Thiessen line

Linear Eq. 6 Population in ¼-mile-buffer / Thiessen line

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

f(x) = 0.967947026123667 x + 0.00118741321393836R² = 0.549958896391909

Series1 Linear (Series1)

Actual Ridership Market Share per Route in 2011

Est.

Rid

ersh

ip M

arke

t Sh

are

per

Rout

e

Model Output Validation

Model Application to Future Routes

Model Output Validation

Buffer Area 2011 est. 2011 est. 2035% increase

In 25 years

Yearly % Increase

Population

⅛-mile-buffer 98,476 152,125 54.48% # 1.83%

¼-mile-buffer 176,356 295,267 67.43% # 2.17%

½-mile-buffer 235,505 399,078 69.46% # 2.22%

Employment

⅛-mile-buffer 123,112 220,570 79.16% # 2.46%

¼-mile-buffer 170,643 326,346 91.24% # 2.74%

½-mile-buffer 188,865 334,402 77.06% # 2.41%

Transit DemandGPS data 47,731 51,752 70,915 48.57% # 1.66%

All 7,973,480 11,846,299 48.57% # 1.66%

CONTENTS

RouteDemand Per Route 2011 Demand Per Route 2035

AVL Sample Data (Partial) Est. Est. % Demand Increase

2 2,857 6.0% 486,773 6.1% 564,718 4.8% 16.0%3 1,394 2.9% 298,215 3.7% 365,388 3.1% 22.5%4 1,603 3.4% 390,506 4.9% 453,231 3.8% 16.1%5 2,982 6.2% 339,594 4.3% 387,302 3.3% 14.0%6 2,299 4.8% 558,512 7.0% 733,625 6.2% 31.4%7 3,095 6.5% 325,913 4.1% 431,198 3.6% 32.3%8 1,707 3.6% 322,554 4.0% 393,645 3.3% 22.0%9 2,999 6.3% 480,747 6.0% 580,952 4.9% 20.8%

11 2,077 4.4% 272,416 3.4% 331,277 2.8% 21.6%12 2,013 4.2% 335,856 4.2% 404,949 3.4% 20.6%13 1,723 3.6% 375,804 4.7% 439,760 3.7% 17.0%14 2,440 5.1% 296,625 3.7% 404,850 3.4% 36.5%15 2,488 5.2% 297,530 3.7% 380,225 3.2% 27.8%17 1,042 2.2% 182,106 2.3% 299,655 2.5% 64.5%18 1,865 3.9% 274,685 3.4% 310,053 2.6% 12.9%19 1,194 2.5% 287,027 3.6% 358,007 3.0% 24.7%25 692 1.4% 178,280 2.2% 206,903 1.7% 16.1%26 596 1.2% 161,306 2.0% 207,915 1.8% 28.9%28 437 0.9% 158,211 2.0% 176,980 1.5% 11.9%54 1,056 2.2% 236,279 3.0% 318,796 2.7% 34.9%56 913 1.9% 358,386 4.5% 467,410 3.9% 30.4%57 644 1.3% 185,843 2.3% 294,161 2.5% 58.3%

100 2,458 5.1% 279,053 3.5% 386,061 3.3% 38.3%101 3,773 7.9% 472,408 5.9% 681,922 5.8% 44.4%201 24,845 0.2%

202 290,009 2.4%204 180,121 1.5%205 430,011 3.6%206 66,974 0.6%207 91,881 0.8%209 55,916 0.5%211 99,165 0.8%212 47,025 0.4%213 294,651 2.5%214 3,817 0.0%395 1,311 2.7% 211,229 2.6% 263,328 2.2% 24.7%777 2,074 4.3% 207,620 2.6% 419,576 3.5% 102.1%

9999 - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0.0% 47,731 100.0% 7,973,480 100.0% 11,846,299 100.0% 48.6%

Future Routes

Existing Routes

Further Study

Needs More Understanding on Data Income, Captive Riders, Alternative Modes New Mobility Indexes of Each Routes Refined Accessibility Indexes of Each Stops Transit LOSs ; Total Service Area, Fare System, Headways, etc.

Acknowledgement

Jeremy Smith, Lee Gibson, Amy Cummings Tom Kowalski(UTA)

Q/A

Thank You For Your Time !!

Peter Bang, Ph.D.202-366-2317