General Finding in Heliospheric Realm

Nat Gopalswamy

William Liu: Kuafu

• Kuafu A @ L1(Ly-alpha imager, Ly-alpha + inner coronagraph, outer coronagraph); 3-axis, 722 kg total; 130 kg payload

• Kuafu B in double Molnya orbit (auroral arcs, vortices, turbulence) – anticipated

• Kuafu A in 2016; B in 2019 (Liu’s recommendation)

• Surface to 20 Rs coronagraph (WCOR + Ly alpha) only: Balanced Kuafu?

SPORT (Solar Polar Orbit Radio Telescope ) Mission

Big Ellipse Transfer Big Ellipse Transfer Jupiter Gravity Assist Jupiter Gravity AssistLaunchLaunch Solar Polar OrbitSolar Polar Orbit

The Mission: Main Objective: Imaging & tracking interplanetary CMEs

propagation Orbit: out-of-ecliptic (inclination > 73.45o) Attitude: 3-x stabilized

Main payload: Synthetic aperture radio telescope (with ‘clock scan’ scheme)

Frequency: 150±10MHz Angular Resolution ： 2º Imaging Period ： 30~60 mins FOV ： ±25º

Other Payloads: Imaging Payloads: Heliospheric Imager, chronograph, X-

EUV imagers, + .. In-situ Measurement Package: solar wind plasma

detectors (both ion and electrons), energetic particle detector, fluxgate magnetometer, low frequency wave detector, solar radio burst spectrometer

35.76m

31.76m

Sun

Wu, Liu

(Babcock- Leighton type) dynamo based solar cycle prediction:(Proper) magnetic memory in the dynamo

(Proper) approach to derive the poloidal source from observation

required

Generation of poloidal field: nonlinear effects to modulate & Random effects

Tricky, important … problem !!

main diff. between two predictions

(Jiang)

• 2. On assumption of the magnetic flux conservation in the same flux tube, we estimate the coronal field strength in the polar coronal hole. Our results show that the coronal flux density at the heights of 10~70 Mm decreased from about 15 to 3 G. A formula of fits our estimated data well. 0.840.5( / 1) ( )B R R G

Kinematics and coronal field strength of an untwisting jet in a polar coronal hole observed by SDO/AIA

1. By tracking six moving features (MF1-6) in the jet, the kinematics (axial velocity, transverse velocity, angular speed, rotation period and rotation radius) of the untwisting jet are obtained.

1114av km s1136tv km s

452 ( 3.6 )T s twist turns

1 3 10.81 ( 14.1 10 )s or rad s

39.8 10A km

The main results are:

Huadong Chen, Jun Zhang, & Suli Ma

Also current sheet by Zhao

S.-L. Ma

7

• Comparison of CME and ICME fluxes (independently measured for 9 events; Qiu et al., 2007):

- flare-associated CMEs and flux-rope ICMEs with one-to-one correspondence; - reasonable flux-rope solutions satisfying diagnostic measures; - an effective length L=1 AU (uncertainty range 0.5-2 AU) .

GS method

Leamon et al. 04

Lynch et al. 05

P ~ r

Q. Hu

8

SOHO

Gopalswamy SpaceSciRev, 2006 Yao et al., 2010, JGR

NASA

Remote Observation

Model

In situ measurement

HELIOS Events:

1979DOY129, at 0.3 AU

1976 DOY 90, at 0.5 AU

1978DOY358, at 0.7 AU

Prominence Signature in MCs

High Np and low Tp

Located at the center of the flux rope

Existence of He+

Heating before and after prominence material

Overlap

Pola

r Fie

ldUnderstanding Solar Minimum 23-24

• Characterized by a large number of sunspot-less days (No cycle overlap) and a weak polar field strength.

Time

Latit

ude

MF Am

plitude

Surface Magnetic Field

• Meridional Flow (MF) amplitude was varied from cycle to cycle.

• A meridional flow speed which goes from fast to slow reproduces the observed solar minimum characteristics

• The strength of the polar field is governed mainly by surface dynamics in the early half of the cycle.

• The amount of spotless days is governed by the dynamics deep in the solar interior.

Nandy, Muñoz-Jaramillo & Martens, Nature, 471, 80 (2010).

• The reason behind the difference is related to solar cycle memory (Yeates, Nandy & Mackay 2008):

• Diffusion dominated: one cycle.• Advection dominated: several cycles.

Forecasting the solar minimum using kinematic dynamo models

• Kinematic dynamo models have been used for the first time to make solar cycle predictions, but the two model based predictions are very different.

Diffusion dominatedChoudhuri et al. (2007)

Advection dominated Dikpati et al. (2006)

• There are still outstanding issues regarding magnetic flux transport:

• Uncertainties in turbulent diffusivity (Muñoz-Jaramillo, Nandy & Martens 2011).• Lack of turbulent downward flux-pumping (Guererro & De Gouveia Dal Pino 2008).

• Taking these issues into consideration suggests that cycle memory is only one cycle regardless of the type of model (Nandy & Karak, in preparation).

Lugaz CME Interaction,

The “twin-CME” scenarioIT IS VERY LIKELY THAT SPACE-HARZARD EVENTS ARE CAUSED BY “TWIN-CMES” WHERE TWO CMES OCCUR CLOSELY IN TIME (9 HOURS) FROM THE SAME ACTIVE REGION.

This give us a very powerful predictability on Space weather!

1) first CME/shock setup a strong turbulence upstream the second CME/shock.

2) open closed magnetic reconnection brings out driver material which is heavy ion rich.

3) the second shock has to go through the turbulence-enhanced region.

Recipe for GLE event

Gang Li

AIMOS - Model conceptionAtmospheric Ionization Module OSnabrück (http://aimos.physik.uos.de)

horizontal pattern: empirical modelbased on satellite data and Kp-> particle distribution on top of atmosphere

vertical pattern: numerical modelMonte-Carlo simulation-> ionization of single particle injections

empirical model + numerical model-> atmospheric ionization of full particle inventory, worldwide, continuous from 2002

AIMOS - resultsAccuracyAIMOS+GCM vs. measurements

Benefits here: electron density compared to radars

el. density in high atmosphere compared to radars

NOy in lower atmosphere compared to MIPAS

without particles

with particles

Kperp/kpar = 10%

Wimmer• EP production chain• observations• DC, stochastic & shock accelerations• DC: E = 0.2 V/m (motion of B field causes an electric filed E~ vB) current sheet

~5000 km; acceleration in RC islands?• Stochastic: consequence of wave-particle interaction w – k.V = n.omega• shock: diffusive, shock-drift• diff: VsxB is the electric field that accelerates• April 3 2010 event: STA SEP flux an order of mag higher than in STB• Rouillard et al. (2011) use ENLIL to explain SEP variation• Lario et al. (2005) not all shocks accelerate particles. Seed particles is a key. M>3

always accelerate• Vainio model• propagation: diffusive, focused, scatter-free• Kahler 2007• Kallenrode & Wibberenz model very important (helios data & IMP data)

Jan Maik Wissing

• aurora• ionization• secondaries• bremsstrahlung (e)• cosmogenic isotope production• mag particles: 10 keV to MeV (deposit above 90

km)• SEP reach down to 20 km• GLEs even below

Wissing (continued)• polar cap SEP events: ionization dominated by protons• Wissing and Kallenrode 2009• higher conductivity, chemical reaction – Hox, Nox, Ozone depletion• N2, O2, NO, O dissociated forming Hox and Nox• NO + O3 • Rohnen et al. 2005• North-south asymmetry: transport of Nox in the winter hemispere• SEP impact similar to UV rad over the solar cycle• Low cloud (<3.2 km) correlates with GCR• Markson, 1978• Singh, Singh, Kamra, 2004• Model: Determine particle flux above the atm; calaculate energy dep;

Wissing et al., 2011• Good models for polar cap; not accurate in the oval

Ho (gang li)

• Sugiyama & terasawa 1999• CME needs to be around 5 Rs for producing GLEs• Drury 1983• dt = 3skdp/(s-1)u^2 p need small k• Tylka 2005• Presence of preceding CMEs: All of the GLEs have

preceding CMEs (Li et a., 2011)• Ding et al., 2011

Guhathakurta: SW impact

• 100 M$ satellite, 100 M$ power grids, 10 M$ communications

• humans in space, crew on passengers• Cliver & Svalgaard 2004• lowest lat aurora in 1872• Biggest storm in 1989 March• transit 14 h on 4 Aug 1972 9between two Apollo

flights)• NSWP since 1995; NOAA SWPC;

Guhathakurta (continued)• Flares (R5): X20 (once per cycle)Nov 4, 2003: X28+, April 2, 2001: X20• Storms (G5): K9, 4 per cyclelowlat aurora, outage, pipeline currents reach 100s

of A • SEPs: (S5) 10000 pfu <1 per cycle• 9 events since 1976• S5 and R5 are truly seldom; G5 less useful• 1000 to 100000 times greater than X1 in stars –

10-20 days rotation period (Schrijver)

Alexi Glover

• satellites: particle, plasma• humans: iss, future ip missions• Lack of flares: build up of debris in LEO & reduced

orbital drag• large gcr flux for crewed missions and some

sensitive electronics• euro crews treated as radiation workers (high

latitude, polar flights) – legal responsibility• Integrity of GNSS may be compromised

Lugaz

• Tracking CMEs to 1 AU, CME-CME interaction

YM Wang

• Source identification of Rise 23 CMEs – 19% of CMEs missed by LASCO, similar to what Yashiro et al. (2005) found.

• brightness is ppl to apparent speed bright feature = compressed solar wind

Suli Ma

• 11/32 stealth CMEs during unusual minimum• speed: lower speed (50 – 100 km/s) compared

to the ones with LCS (Jan 1-Aug 31, 2009)• a – small in COR2 FOV; not different• Limb events do show EUV changes in the inner

corona

Suli Ma Shock• 6/13/2010 event• T ~ 3 MK• Sheath bright in 193; dark in 171• Bubble flux rope• Vs 600 km/s; bubble 410 km/s• shock speed decrease: 600 to 550 km a -1

km/s/s• Flare 5:36 – peak 5:39 UT• Shock coincides with the fastest part• compression ratio: 1.56

Zhao

• Current sheet behind CMEs

Hu

• Grad-Sharanov reconstruction of MC structure• Phi-r (flare) ~ phi-p (MC); Quantitative CME –

ICME connection

Shuo Yao• Good review of CME substructures• Id three-part structure in in-situ observations• three case studies at 0.3, .5, .7 AU from Helios• Heating before and after the prom material• High Np, Low Tp (similar to prom), possibly He+ (Yao et al.,

2010) Solwind CME 600 km/s travels to .3 AU in 22 h (helios 2)

• doy 90, 1976 0.5 AU; He+; heated plasma before and after the cold feature

• 0.7 AU• All signatures observed• Solar probe plus, Solar Orbiter

OPgenoorth

• Interaction of CMEs and CIRs with Mars ionosphere (MARSIS) – 12 events

• CME and CIR related dynamic pressure variations; induced magnetosphere

• Kozyra talk; Zhang