general directorate of state airports authority turkey · 2018-04-05 · • turkey's...
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GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF
STATE AIRPORTS AUTHORITY
TURKEY
TABLE OF CONTENTS
STATISTICS
DHMI MAIN FUNCTION AND SERVICES
HUGE PROJECT
DHMI MAJOR PROJECTS
DHMI MAIN FUNCTION
AND SERVICES
AIRPORTS OPEN TO CIVIL AIR TRAFFIC IN TURKEY
OPEN TO CIVIL AIR TRAFFIC
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
PLANNED
Passenger (Thousand) 2003
1. UNITED STATES 1.268.895
2. UNITED KINGDOM 203.608
3.JAPAN 175.854
4.SPAIN 153.394
5.GERMANY 146.673
6.FRANCE 119.728
7.ITALY 100.364
8.CHINA 99.546
9.BRAZIL 76.640
10.CANADA 76.509
11.AUSTRALIA 74.722
12.SOUTH KOREA 64.937
13.MEXICO 61.522
14.NETHERLANDS 41.389
15.INDIA 40.105
16.INDONESIA 39.919
17.TAILAND 39.794
18.TURKEY 34.444
19.MALAYSIA 34.071
20.RUSSIAN FEDERATION 33.086
Passenger (Thousand) 2016
1. UNITED STATES 1.649.105
2.CHINA 1.019.737
3.JAPAN 295.621
4.UNITED KINGDOM 270.566
5.INDIA 255.193
6.SPAIN 229.635
7.GERMANY 225.044
8.BRAZIL 199.525
9. INDONESIA188.839
10.FRANCE 174.993
11.TURKEY 174.153
12.ITALY 165.009
13.RUSSIAN FEDERATION 160.724
14.AUSTRALIA 153.843
15.CANADA 140.360
16. TAILAND 138.732
17. SOUTH KOREA136.436
18.MEXICO 127.324
19.UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 120.132
20.MALAYSIA 91.390
RANKINGS BY PASSENGER TRAFFICS
TURKEY RANKINGS BY
EUROPE & WORLD
Years Europe World
TOTAL
PASSENGER
(MILLION)
2019 - - 223.433
2018 - - 205.402
2017 4 9 193.410
2016 5 11 174.153
2015 3 8 181.075
2014 3 9 166.181
2013 5 11 149.996
2012 6 12 131.030
2011 6 12 118.292
…
2005 6 16 56.119
2004 6 16 45.057
2003 7 18 34.443
Source: (2017) The Undisclosed Data Set Out By The ACI
Source:ACI
DHMI’s MAJOR PROJECTS
ISTANBUL NEW AIRPORT
ISTANBUL NEW AIRPORT
ON GOING, COMPLETED AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION
PHASE BOT PROJECTS
ESENBOGA AIRPORT NEW
INTERNATIONAL/DOMESTIC
TERMINAL AND SUPPLEMENTARY
BUILDINGS PROJECT
ZAFER AIRPORT
ANTALYA AIRPORT I. & II. PHASE
INTERNATIONAL LINES TERMINALS,
CIP BUILDING, DOMESTIC LINES
TERMINAL AND
SUPPLEMENTARY BUILDINGS
AIR TRANSPORT GENERAL ETUDE (HUGE)
HUGE Project
• Main Steps of HUGE Project
• Step1: Clustering
• Step2: Short Term Forecast (3 Years)
• Step3: Medium Term Forecast (10 Years)
• Step4: Long Term Forecast (20 Years)
• Step5: System Planning HUGE
CLUSTERING
Prior to conducting the survey, sampling studies were conducted to determine the number of
airports to be surveyed and the number of the surveys. Clustering analysis was used in the
sampling study. Factors considered in the cluster analysis:
• Number of Passenger
• Connectivity (By Domestic and International)
• Accessibility
QUESTIONNARIES
As a result of the analyses, the number of the
questionnaires were made at some airports:
Some Examples of Questionnaries Results at
Istanbul Atatürk Airport
FORECASTS
• Short –Term Forecast (3 Years)• Medium- Term Foracast (10 Years)• Long-Term Forecast (20 Years)
Forecasts and presentation files areprepared by R program.
Aircraft Movements
RESULTS OF
SHORT TERM FORECASTS (TURKEY )
METHOD
• Econometric methods have been used for medium-term estimates.
Model : ytdij = β0 + β1x1,tdij + β2x2,tdij + … + β4t + β5Dij + εtdij
• In the outline estimates, data were used at the country level (on landing-departure and summer-winter seperation).
Sample Model ( PAX for Domestic Commercial Flights)
MEDIUM TERM FORECASTS
Forecasts were made for three scenarios:
Scenario One (Base): IMF data were used to estimate the GDP of the countries, and GDP growth rates per capita. IMF foresees the 2017-2022 period will grow by an annual average of 4.2% for Turkey.
Scenario Two (Low): It is predicted that all countries in the world will grow 1.5 percentage points below IMF estimates. In this scenario, the outcome of adverse external shocks (increase in fuel prices, developments that adversely affect tourism, etc.) was assumed to be 2 percentage points lower for domestic and international routes than for the period 2011-2016.
Scenario Three (High): It is assumed that all countries in the world will grow 1.5 percentage point above the IMF estimates. It is also assumed that the outcome of positive external shocks (the real downward trend in fuel prices, positive political environment, etc.) will be 2 percentage point increase in the trend growth rate both in domestic and international lines compared to 2011-2016 period.
RESULTS OF FORECASTS FOR 10 YEARS
DATA SOURCES
• List of Airports in the World (+50,000 airport / heliport). Country, city, location information about airports. Source: http://ourairports.com/data/ (Last updated 14 November 2017)
• Country codes and classifications. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators
• Turkey real GDP and current account data (2011-2016). The GDP deflator was calculated from current and real GDP. Source: TURKSTAT
• Turkey airports data. Source: DHMİ
• High speed rail connections. Source: MATPUM
• Turkey 2004-2014 GDP per capita at the provincial level (at current prices). Turkey has been calculated by increasing the level of data 2015-2016 average. Source: TURKSTAT
• Turkey's population by province (2007-2016 data). Source: TURKSTAT
• Coordinates of cities in Turkey. The province coordinates were used as the arithmetic average of the district centers coordinates.
• IMF country-based population and per capita GDP estimates (growth rates, 2016-2022 data). The average of the last three years was used for 2023-2026. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2017
• Total population, adult population, population in the largest city, GDP per capita Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (R WDI package)
Domestic Passenger
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Domestic Passenger
Domestic Flights
International Passenger
International Passenger
TOP 20 FOR COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS AND PASSENGER NUMBERS
LONG TERM FORECASTS AND SCENARIOSLONG TERM FORECASTS AND SCENARIOSLONG TERM FORECASTS AND SCENARIOSLONG TERM FORECASTS AND SCENARIOS
LONG TERM FORECASTSLONG TERM FORECASTSLONG TERM FORECASTSLONG TERM FORECASTS
The long-term forecasting study was conducted in 5 main steps:
Step 1 : Determination of Priorities
Step 2 : Determination of External Trends
Step 3: Creating a Matrix of Significant Variables
Step 4: Creating Scenarios
Step 5: Choosing the Best Scenario
Globalization
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION..