gdp annual growth (%) macroeconomic outlook - posse herrera · posse herrera ruiz, its clients and...

Verónica Navas President EConcept - mailto:[email protected] Mauricio Santa María Partner EConcept - mailto:[email protected] http://www.econceptaei.com

This report is prepared by EConcept Análisis Económico Independiente SAS, exclusively for

Posse Herrera Ruiz, its clients and friends.

GDP Annual Growth (%)

Source: DANE

Oil GDP Annual Growth (%)

Source: DANE

Commerce GDP Annual Growth (%)

Source: DANE

Outstanding Loans Annual Growth (%)

Source: Central Bank

Macroeconomic Outlook

Economic activity

Colombia’s GDP expanded by 3.2% in 3Q; this is a reasonably

good result considering the shock the economy is undergoing. Oil

prices have fallen by 50% over the past year, and thereby oil

exports now represent 41% of total exports, down from 54%. The

current account deficit is set to reach 6% by the end of the year,

while the fiscal deficit is forecast at 3% of GDP. These

imbalances mostly explain a 40% depreciation of the currency,

which has reached a historical peak in nominal terms of COP

3,356 per dollar. Under this less than auspicious macroeconomic

scenario it is possible that the economy expands by 3% for the

year as a whole, which is not bad.

The Colombian economy has been able to weather falling exports

through a still strong domestic demand. Commerce GDP was up

by a surprising 4.8% in 3Q, indicating that local demand is yet to

assimilate the substantial terms of trade shock that the economy

has been subject to. Commerce figures (without vehicles) for

October are also auspicious (up by 5.8%). Private consumption

has been boosted by both unusually low unemployment and a

still dynamic credit market. Consumption outstanding loans have

only just started to slow somewhat, and are growing by almost

12% in nominal terms. Commercial outstanding loans are up by a

healthy 18%. Public expenditure, at both the Central and local

levels has also kept local demand growing, at the cost of a

soaring fiscal deficit. Total consumption was up by 3.4% in 3Q,

with private consumption expanding by 3.5% and public

consumption doing so by 2.7%.

We expect commerce GDP to grow above 4% in 4Q, taking

annual growth to be a handsome 4.5%. However, this shouldn’t

be the case next year, as unemployment increases, and credit

supply slows down. Furthermore, public expenditure will need to

be adjusted at some point in order to comply with the fiscal rule

deficit target of 3.6% of GDP.

The financial sector also performed quite well. Financial GDP

was up by 4.3% in 3Q. This will have been a good year for this

sector, which enjoyed ample liquidity during the most part of the

year. We expect it to grow slightly above 4% for the year as a

whole. However, liquidity will be less ample in 2016, and financial

intermediaries, who have so far relied greatly on loans for profits,

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Total Consumption (%)

Source: DANE

Gross Capital Formation (%)

Source: DANE

Total Exports (%)

Source: DANE

Total Imports (%)

Source: DANE

will start restricting credit. Profits for the financial sector are likely

to be less good, as it adjusts to tighter monetary policy both

locally and abroad. Therefore we expect it to grow by 3.5% in

2016.

The other big contributor to GDP growth in 3Q was the social

services sector, which is essentially public expenditure. It

accounts for 17% of GDP and expanded by 3.1% in 3Q,

highlighting the importance of the fiscal stimulus for economic

activity this year. This sector is likely to have grown by 3.5% this

year. The extent of this stimulus is unlikely to be extended into

2016, given the drop in oil prices. Furthermore, local

governments are usually bad at executing their budgets in their

first year, which is why they’ll probably spend less in 2016. This is

why we expect social services to expand by 2.5% in 2016.

The construction sector, on the other hand, performed less well

than anticipated, growing by a meager 0.8% in 3Q. This, in turn is

reflected in the poor growth of investment, which expanded by

only 1%. This should be partially reverted in 4Q, where a

significant share of payments from the public sector is usually

concentrated. Therefore the sector should expand by 4.3% in

2015. Next year ought to be good for the construction sector as

the execution of the long awaited for 4th generation road

concessions is set to begin. This investment, which during the

first years of these projects is mostly private, should give a boost

to civil works. Public expenditure on the other hand will continue

to flow towards housing projects. Hence the construction sector

can easily expand by at least 5% in 2016.

The manufacturing industry has finally begun to recover. It grew

by 2.5% in 3Q, and is expected to expand by 0.6% for the year as

a whole. Manufacturing production was up by 1.3% in October.

Most of the more recent steam for this sector is coming from the

Cartagena Refinery that partially started its operation in

November. The refining sector accounts for 12% of the

manufacturing industry, and, once the Refinery is working at full

speed should contribute 10pp to the sector’s growth. The rest of

the manufacturing industry was up by 2.6% when excluding

refining activity in 3Q.

While some import substitution is indeed taking place as a result

of the weaker COP, the expected boost in exports hasn’t taken

place. All in all, 2016 should be a better year for the







Financial Services GDP Annual Growth (%)

Source: DANE

Social Services GDP Annual Growth (%)

Source: DANE

Construction GDP Annual Growth (%)

Source: DANE

Manufacturing GDP Annual Growth (%)

Source: DANE

manufacturing industry, which should expand by 3.1%.

The Colombian economy has proven to be quite resilient, and

growing by 3% this year can be considered to be an outstanding

result given the circumstances. However, it continues to rely

excessively on the non-tradeable sector, as exports continue to

contract. GDP growth is being led by consumption rather than

investment. Public demand has played a disproportionately

important role in preserving economic activity. This is not

sustainable. Low oil prices seem to be here to stay (at least for a

while), and the government’s failure to adjust is resulting in an

undesirable twin deficit scenario that hadn’t been present since

2010. The currency’s excessive volatility –relative to our peers-

shows that the country’s macroeconomic policy is losing

credibility.

Next year will be a tough one, and, with luck, the economy will

grow at a pace similar to this year’s. There will be little room for

countercyclical fiscal policy, monetary policy will be tighter and

private demand will need to be adjusted in order to narrow the

current account deficit. Therefore we expect GDP to expand by

2.9% in 2016.

Labor Market

As it was to be expected, the labor market has begun to

deteriorate. However, results have been reasonably good. The

unemployment rate stands at 8.2%, 0.3pp above last year. The

participation rate has been rising, which is typical of economic

downturns, when other household members enter the labor

market as household revenue falls. In average, unemployment

will have been 9.1% this year, which is still close to full

employment. Formal employment, has continued to grow quicker

than informal which proves the labor market is still in good shape.

We expect unemployment to rise in 2016, reaching 9.1% in

average for the year as a whole.

Monetary Policy

The Central Bank has increased its rates by 1.25pp over the past

4 months, in an attempt to curb surging inflation which, at 6.4% is

way above its comfort zone. Inflation expectations, at 6.7%, are

also above the bank’s target range (2% - 4%).

Some of the pressure on inflation is coming from the supply side.







Mining GDP Annual Growth (%)

Source: DANE

National Unemployment Rate (%)

Source: DANE

Contribution to Employed

Population Annual Growth by

Formality - 13 Main Cities (pp - qma)

Source: DANE

Inflation Rate and Forecast (%)

Source: DANE

Namely, food prices, driven by El Niño, as well as the devaluation

of the currency. However, there is also demand pressure;

inflation for non-tradeables, at 4.4% has risen by 116 bps.

Consumption outstanding loans, on the other hand, are growing

way quicker than nominal GDP.

Currently, the Central Bank seems to be behind the curve, having

started to hike rates a little too late. Inflation is too high, and the

downward pressure expected from an economic slowdown has

been modest as demand has remained unsuitably strong. El Niño

will keep food prices high at least until April, so total inflation is

expected to keep surging at least for a few more months. The

currency’s depreciation has had a stronger effect than

anticipated, inflation for tradeable goods has increased by 524

bps, reaching a maximum of 6.9%. The impact of a weak

currency upon inflation will be more modest next year, as the

greatest effect has already taken place. We expect inflation to

reach 4.5% by the end of 2016.

The sensitive issue is economic activity, the Central Bank started

hiking rates late as it tried to avoid precipitating a more protruded

economic slowdown. Now it has no choice, if it wants to bring

expected inflation down within the target range. Curbing demand

in order to narrow the current account deficit is also a welcome

effect. Therefore we expect the Bank to take rates at least to a

neutral level (between 1.5% and 1.75% in real terms), which

implies additional hikes of between 25 and 50 bps. Calibrating

the speed at which demand will slowdown is not an easy feat,

and the Central Bank will probably be more willing to err by hiking

too little than too much. They can always stop and wait.

Fiscal Outlook

Fiscal challenges for 2016 will be substantial. Oil prices continue

to slide, and the government is committed to a fiscal deficit of

3.6% of GDP, the highest since 2010, in order to comply with the

fiscal rule. However, the recently approved budget includes an

implied fiscal deficit of nearly 4% of GDP. Therefore the

government will have to start by presenting a credible

expenditure cut.

The Ministry of Finance proposed a series of measures to

guarantee that the deficit target of 3.6% of GDP is met. First it

earmarked one trillion pesos of the increase in investment as a

guarantee for the compliance of the fiscal rule. Namely, if there is







Central Bank’s Intervention Interest

Rate (%)


Output Gap and Real Intervention

Rate (%)


National Budget – Investment (COP billion)

Source: Ministry of Finance

Macroeconomic Assumptions 2016

National Budget

Source: Ministry of Finance

a shortfall in revenue, this expenditure wouldn’t take place.

Additionally it determined that 1% of the entire investment budget

should be susceptible to cuts in the event of revenue shortfalls,

hence government entities should be prepared for across the

board cuts. While this sounds nice, it seems like the government

was postponing the fiscal adjustment that should have taken

place in the budgetary discussion. The government will have to

take action now, living up to the austerity promises, and fulfill the

anticipated expenditure cut.

Even after this cut, which adds up to 0.3% of GDP, the Ministry of

Finance will have a hard time making ends meet. It included in its

revenue forecast 0.5% of GDP of additional tax revenue resulting

from improved management. The materialization of these

resources is doubtful at best.

The government has failed to present a credible fiscal adjustment

in order to adapt to a fiscal reality modified by impossibly low oil

prices. This fiscal looseness is behind a soaring current account

deficit and an excessively volatile currency. The government will

have the opportunity to regain its credibility through the tax reform

to be presented in 1Q 2016. This reform should aim for 2% of

GDP of additional revenue, replacing oil revenue and the

resources that will be lost after 2019 due to the phasing out of the

financial transactions tax and income tax surcharge. It will also

have to finance the cost of peace, which can be as high as 0.5%

of GDP per year, the government’s share of road infrastructure

investment (so-called 4G projects) and reduce the fiscal deficit in

line with the fiscal rule’s outlined path.

The tax reform will in all likelihood attempt to increase the income

tax base, reducing people’s income threshold to start paying the

tax. Furthermore, it will have to increase the VAT general tax rate

and reduce the number of exempt goods. Both are hugely

unpopular measures, but a peace agreement should increase

Congress’ support. On the other hand, the government should

attempt to reduce the corporate income tax rate, which is now

excessively high, particularly for the oil sector that is now in

particularly bad shape. This won’t be easy either. However if the

tax reform falls short, fiscal sustainability going forward will be

questionable.







Peace Process

A peace deal is now closer than ever. President Santos has committed to March 23

rd as the date in which

an agreement will be signed. This a huge step. However this will be the first of many before peace is

effectively achieved.

Discussions on transitional justice lasted 14 months; on the 23rd of September, President Santos shared

the agreements that had been reached on this point. First, a special tribunal to judge authors of serious

crimes will be created to investigate, judge and condemn their crimes within the armed conflict. Access to

this jurisdiction is extensive to the Military and other State agents that are considered to have contributed

in the conflict. Secondly, it states an amnesty for political crimes and other minor crimes related to the

conflict; there’s still uncertainty on whether narco-trafficking could be included in this category. Finally, the

access to the Special Jurisdiction for Peace will be restricted to actors of the conflict that are committed to

saying the truth about their participation.

In practice, penalties for those who willingly accept their crimes will range between 5 and 8 years of

“restricted freedom” in special conditions. Namely, these will pay their time under extraordinary conditions,

to be agreed upon, that will allow them to repair the victims through crop substitution and eliminating land

mines. Those who do not confess to their crimes will be subject to penalties of up to 20 years in ordinary

prisons.

FARC-EP and the government agreed on seeing to victim´s needs using a variety of channels including

financial reparation, de-mining of the territory, social investment in remote areas and publicly accepting

the truth and asking for forgiveness of acts of war against the civilian population. This reparation, as well

as the obligation of collaborating in it, covers everyone.

There has been a lot of speculation regarding the peace dividend. We are skeptical. Much of this dividend

already took place during the Uribe administration, which reestablished security countrywide. It is unlikely

that investment surges after a peace agreement, because the armed conflict is no longer considered an

important detractor in most economic sectors (aside from oil). In the long run, however, there should be

benefits in the agricultural sector, which has a huge unexploited potential. But this will require of additional

reforms. Furthermore, military expenditure cannot be reduced, and in this the military have been very

clear. In any case, putting an end to the political connotation of this conflict is an important step that will

allow the Government to refocus on a new development agenda.







INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN COLOMBIA I. Transportation Sector

i. Roads

Fourth Generation (4G) Road Concessions Projects - First Wave Projects

*Calculations using an exchange rate of COP/USD 2,757, the Government forecast for 2015

Source: National Infrastructure Agency Projects

GroupLength

(km)Total CAPEX

Government

Contribution -

Future

Budgetary

Appropiations

Existing

TollsNew Tolls Type of Intervention Status

1 190,13 USD 332,9 million USD 530,2 million 1 3

Rehabilitation and improvement of existing road

network, second lane construction and building of

bridges over the Magdalena river

Awarded

2 31,82 USD 432,8 million USD 876,3 million 0 2Rehabilitation of existing road network and

construction of a new one lane corridorAwarded

3 153,8 USD 409,9 million USD 800,4 million 2 3Rehabilitation and improvement of existing road

network and construction of second lane Awarded

4 159,09 USD 348,0 million USD 642,1 million 2 1

Construction of a new road network and a second

lane plus rehabilitation, maintenance and

improvement of existing road network

Awarded

144 USD 497,9 million USD 893,6 million 2 1Construction of a new road and improvement of

existing road networkAwarded

145 USD 356,4 million USD 889,2 million 0 2Construction of a new road and improvement of


53,8 USD 649,4 million USD 942,2 million 1 1Construction of a new road and improvement of


97,78 USD 331,0 million USD 530,1 million 2 0Construction, improvement, rehabilitation and

maintenanceAwarded

146,2 USD 471,4 million USD 720,1 million 2 3Construction, improvement, rehabilitation and

maintenanceAwarded

Road

Girardot - Honda - Puerto

Salgar

Mulaló - Loboguerrero

East Cundinamarca Perimeter

Corridor

Cartagena - Barranquilla

Autopista al Río Magdalena 2:

Remedios-Puerto Berrío

Autopista Conexión Norte:

Remedios-Caucasia

Autopista Conexión Pacífico 1:

Ancón Sur-Bolombolo


Bolombolo-La Primavera


La Pintada- 3 Puertas

Autopistas para la

prosperidad

Grupo 1







Fourth Generation (4G) Road Concessions Projects - Second Wave Projects


Source: National Infrastructure Agency Projects.

Fourth Generation (4G) Road Concessions Projects – Third Wave Projects

Length (km) Total CAPEX

Government

Contribution -

Future Budgetary

Appropiations

Status

180 USD 528,4 million USD 1122,8 million Awarded


190,85 USD 538,3 million USD 1102,0 millionApproved

by MHCP


79,67 USD 618,0 million USD 1072,3 million Awarded





212,02 USD 610,9 million USD 641,9 million AwardedB/manda- B/meja -

Yondó

Santana-Neiva

Rumichaca-Pasto

Popayán-S/der de

Quilichao

Transversal del Sisga

Villavicencio-Yopal

P/ta de Hierro -Palmar

Neiva-Girardot

Road

Autopista al Mar 1

Autopista al Mar 2








Source: National Infrastructure Agency Projects.

Map of Fourth Generation (4G) Road Concessions Projects

Source: National Planning Department

Length (km) Total CAPEX Status

133,1 USD 283,7 millionApproved by MHCP

and DNP

112,7 USD 446,5 million Structuring






141 USD 247,5 million Structuring

Barbosa - Bucaramanga

Duitama - Pamplona

Sogamoso – Aguazul - Mani

Chinchiná – Mariquita

Road

Bucaramanga – Pamplona

Pamplona - Cúcuta

Ocaña - Cúcuta

Zipaquirá - Barbosa







Other Road Projects: Other infrastructure road projects with a 100% private funding involve the building,

rehabilitation, and maintenance of roads:

o San Gil-Charalá-Duitama Corridor: Structuring technical, legal and financial under the PPP mechanism

which includes the rehabilitation of approximately 20 kms and the operation and maintenance of the

corridor, in structuring.

ii. Airports

Regional Airports: The Government is looking for a private operator for the airports located in Armenia, Neiva

and Popayan. Investment in these airports adds up to USD 121 million. The bidding process is currently under

way.

Matecaña Airport: Construction, modernization, adequacy, administration, operation and maintenance of the

airport. In prequalification proceedings.

Airport “Rafael Nuñez”, Cartagena: Design and construction of a new taxiway; including the expansion of the

aircraft parking platform and the passenger terminal capacity, and the supply/installation of boarding bridges.

100% private funding, pre-feasibility in study.

Airport El Dorado, Bogotá: Design, construction and maintenance for the adequacy of the outdoor infrastructure

of the “El Dorado” airport in Bogotá. 100% private funding, pre-feasibility in study.

Airport El Dorado 2, Bogotá: Increase the operating capacity, competitiveness and development of the country's

main airport. The project is being structured.

Logistic Port of the Americas (ANI): Expand storage capacity, processing, handling and moving cargo in

Eldorado airport in Bogota. 100% private funding, pre-feasibility in study.

Airport Logistic Center (ANI): Cargo logistics center in public premises of Ernesto Cortissoz International Airport.

100% private funding, pre-feasibility in study.

iii. Urban Transportation

Light Rail Transit in Bogotá – Western and Southern corridors: Construction, operation and maintenance of a

railway line in the capital city. Private initiative with public funding, feasibility is in study.

Subway in Bogotá: Pre-bid is frozen because of delays in the delivery of national resources for the second

phase, the Ministry of Finance’s decision is based on the possibility that the elected Mayor decides to change

the current project’s characteristics.

iv. Railways

Railway system for coal transport: A total of 3,300 km of railways will be constructed to connect the center of the

country with the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. Total investment required adds up to USD 6.5 billion where USD 1.2

billion will be invested in the construction of the Pacific coast railways and USD 2.4 billion for the Atlantic coast

railways. Ten of them are in pre-feasibility studies. Currently, 996km of railways are in operation.







II. Energy and Mining Sectors

Ministry of Mines and Energy – National Development Plan:

i) Power Generation:

Privatization of ISAGEN: Colombia's State Council approved the sale of the government's 57.6 % stake in Isagen, expected to

raise COP 6.4 trillion with the new minimum price which represent an increase of COP 1.1 trillion compared to the earlier

valuation.

Projects considered in building phase and with “Obligación de Energía Firme (OEF)”

Source: UPME, Plan de Expansión 2014 -2028

Other Oil, Gas and Energy Opportunities:

Ecopetrol Investment Plan Ecopetrol’s investment for 2016 adds up to USD 4.800 billion (39% less than in 2014),

of which 58% will be invested by Ecopetrol and 42% by other companies of the group. 96% of investments will

be made in Colombia, while the remaining 4% will be destined to projects in other countries. These resources will

be distributed as follows;

USD 3.0 billion in exploration and production

USD 0.5 billion in transport

USD 1.3 billion in other investments

Sale of electric generators Gecelca, Urrá and EBSA: The Nation will sell its share in these electric generators,

(99% of Gecelca, 99.7% of Urrá and 99.41% of EBSA). The first two represent 33% of total installed thermal

capacity and 4.3% of hydraulic energy generation capacity.

Project Capacity (MW) Type Date Starts Operation

Carlos Lleras Restrepo 78,1 Hydroelectric December 2015

San Miguel 42,0 Hydroelectric December 2015

Gecelca 3.2 250,0 Thermal December 2015

Termonorte 88,0 Hydroelectric December 2017

Porvenir II 352,0 Hydroelectric November 2018

300,0 November 2018

600,0 February 2019

900,0 may 2019

1200,0 August 2019

Ituango Primera Etapa Hydroelectric







III. Others

Public Notaries and Registries Superintendence: The objective of this project is to construct a new building (45,000 sq mt plus additional 17,000 sq mt parking) as headquarters of this public entity. A revised estimate suggests that total investment will be approximately USD 75 million. Bidding is scheduled for S2 2015.

General Attorney Headquarters in Cali, Valle del Cauca: Construction of a 32,000 sq mt new building plus additional 14,500 s.q. mt of parking spaces with a total investment estimated at USD 80 million, in prequalification.

Houses of Justice: Design, construction, operation and maintenance of 50 houses of justice (60,646 sq mt, 1,213 sq mt per house). Total investment estimated at USD 62 million during 16.5 years, 1.5 years of design and construction and 15 years of operation and maintenance. Bidding is scheduled for 2015; structuring process completed.

Urban Renovation of CAN – Bogotá DC, Colombia: This project intends to renovate and expand the CAN from 424,000 sq mt to 932,000 sq mt. Initial estimation of total investment is to be defined. Project at studies and designs stage.

Santa Marta´s water delivery system: Permanently provide drinking water and increase the coverage and quality of this service in the city of Santa Marta, as well as improving the coverage and quality of wastewater management that occur in the city. Project is in structuring phase.

Early childhood care and development centers (12 centers): The objective of this project is to provide care to 1.2 million children of vulnerable population. 2,640 sq mt of total area of construction; each center should have the capacity for 300 children. Investment required: USD 25 million. Bidding process: To be allocated.

Port logistics: Development of logistics, recovery, maintenance and operation of the old Free Zone in Puerto Buenaventura. 100% private funding, pre-feasibility in study.

Subsidized housing programs: This plan has five different subsidy levels and aims to provide a million houses to thousands of Colombian families. The program moves forward to reach the goals of the government to create employment and reduce poverty in Colombia. Between 2010 and 2014, the government started the construction of more than 800,000 houses and expects to continue the building program in the next four years. Total investment is COP 12 trillion.

Urban renovation: 12 initiatives in pre-feasible in study and 1 in feasible in study, 100% private funding. Physical

intervention and transformation and administration, operation, maintenance and economic exploration of the

public space in Parque Lleras.

Urban renovation of Sport Venues: three initiatives in pre-feasible in study and one in feasibility in study, 100%

private funding. Architectural renovation, operation and maintenance of the Coliseo Cubierto El Campín.







V. Public – Private Partnerships Projects without public funds

The purpose of these projects is to facilitate private sector participation in infrastructure projects, to the extent that private entities are now entitled to propose projects of this nature to either National or Regional Governments, as well as to invest in economic sectors in which private involvement has traditionally been scarce. This is the case of education, health, justice, defense and public building construction, among others.

Number of Public-Private Partnerships Projects by Sector

Source: National Planning Department – RUAPP

Type of proyect

Invitation

Notice

Hired

(SECOP)

Feasibility Pre-

qualificatio

n (SECOP)

Pre-

feasibility

in studies

Rejected Total

Roads 2 3 22 53 76 156

Urban Transport 8 17 9 34

Urban renewal 1 17 2 20

Public Parking 13 6 19

Trains and subway 4 11 4 19

Water and Sanitation 8 4 12

Street Lighting 2 4 6 12

Airports 1 1 7 2 11

Traffic control 1 7 3 11

Public buildings 3 1 5 2 11

Solid waste 8 2 10

Healed 3 4 7

Transport 1 5 1 7

Culture 5 1 6

Commercial retail 4 2 6

Prisons 5 5

Sporting facilities 1 3 1 5

Urban logistics 1 1 3 5

Public Parks 3 1 4

Airport logistics 1 2 3

Education 1 1 2

Urban 1 1 2

Housing 2 2

Agriculture 1 1

Dam construction 1 1

Document 1 1

Port logistics 1 1

Information systems 1 1

Television 1 1

TOTAL 2 4 49 1 189 130 375







Forecast table

Source: DNP, DANE, Ministry of Finance and EConcept’s calculations

2013 2014 2015f

Population Millions 47.1 47.7 48.2

Real GDP Trillions of 2005 COP 491.0 513.5 530.0

% change 4.9 4.6 3.2

Nominal GDP

In pesos Trillions of current COP 709.0 756.2 831.9

% change 6.5 6.7 10.0

In dollars Billions of current USD 368.0 316.1 304.6

% change -2.2 -14.1 -3.6

GDP deflator % change 2.2 2.0 6.6

Consumer prices (end of period) % change 1.9 3.4 6.6

Nominal exchange rate (average) COP/USD 1,927 2,392 2,731

% change 9.0 24.1 14.2

Real exchange rate (average) 1994 average = 100 101.0 123.2 135.0

% change 5.2 21.9 9.6

Repo rate (end of period) % (end of period) 3.25 4.50 5.75

Nominal interest rate (DTF) % (end of period) 4.1 4.3 5.1

Current account balance Billions of current USD -12.4 -19.8 -19.0

% of GDP -3.3 -5.2 -6.0

Capital account balance Billions of current USD 18.8 19.9 18.4

% of GDP 5.0 5.2 5.8

Exports Billions of current USD 76.0 76.0 70.0

% change -1.4 0.0 -7.9

Exports (goods and services) Billions of current USD 66.9 66.7 60.2

% change -1.4 -0.3 -9.7

Imports Billions of current USD 88.4 91.6 89.0

% change -0.3 3.7 -2.9

Imports (goods and services) Billions of current USD 69.3 72.7 71.3

% change 1.3 4.9 -2.0

Consolidated fiscal balance % of GDP -1.0 -1.8 -2.4

Central Government Fiscal Balance % of GDP -2.4 -2.4 -3.0

3.4

73.4

3.0

-2.4

-3.6

5.2

73.3

4.8

63.1

4.8

92.0

3.0

5.75

5.0

-18.7

-5.0

15.0

2.3

4.5

4.5

2,870

5.1

139.0

2016f

48.7

545.3

894.5

7.5

311.7

2.9




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