gcvsdpa main issues report

8/8/2019 GCVSDPA Main Issues Report

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Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development PlanMain Issues ReportSeptember 2010


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GCVSDP MIR 20 /10 /2010


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GLASGOW AND THE CLYDE VALLEY STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN MAIN ISSUES REPORT SEPTEMBER 2010 Contents

Main Issues ReportGlasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development PlanSeptember 2010

Contents page

Foreword

Using this document 3

Introducing the Issues 4

Section 1Introduction 6

Section 2Legacy o the existing Metropolitan Development Strategy 10

Section 3Strategic drivers o change or the Strategic Development Plan 14

Section 4 Vision and principles 16

Section 5

Main issues and key challenges 22

Section 6The Main Issues

Issue 1Breaking down distance to economic markets 26

Issue 2Supporting a sustainable economy 30

Issue 3Promoting environmental action - an economic necessity 34

Issue 4Promoting sustainable locations or development 42

Issue 5Tackling risk - strategic development priorities 50

Next stages 53

Glossary 54

Background Reports 57


4/64Illustrations GLASGOW AND THE CLYDE VALLEY STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN MAIN ISSUES REPORT SEPTEMBER 2010

Main Issues ReportGlasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development PlanSeptember 2010

Figure 1 Glasgow and the C lyde Valley city-region local authorities 6

Figure 2 Scottish governmental context or the GCV Strategic Development Plan 7

Figure 3 Glasgow and the C lyde Valley Joint Structure Planpublication and approval timeline 8

Figure 4 Main Issues Report structure and ow 9

Figure 5 The legacy o the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Joint Structure Plan 11

Figure 6 Vacant and derelict land and index o multiple deprivation (top 15%) 12

Figure 7 City-region strategic drivers o change to 2035 14

Figure 8 Key components o the spatial vision to 2035 16

Figure 9 Spatial vision and strategic drivers o change 18

Figure 10 Development principles o the spatial vision to 2035 19

Figure 11 Greenhouse gas emissions by sector 2005 20

Figure 12 Population change 2008 / 25 22

Figure 13 Household change 2008 / 25 22

Figure 14 Adopting a demographic Planning Scenario 23

Figure 15 Glasgow International Airport air routes 26

Figure 16 Glasgow International Airport strategic planning role 27

Figure 17 GVA and employment change to 2020 31

Figure 18GVA, productivity and employment change to 2035 31

Figure 19 Strategic Economic Investment Locations 32

Figure 20 City-region environmental context - role and unction 35

Figure 21GCV Green Network strategic opportunities 37

Figure 22 Biomass wood uel production opportunities 38

Figure 23 Wind arm search areas 38

Figure 24

Private sector housing requirements 2008 / 25 43

Figure 25 Network o strategic centres 44

Figure 26 Network o strategic centres - assessment o role and unction 45

Figure 27 West o Scotland Conurbation Public Transport Studyproposed network at 2025 48

Figure 28 West o Scotland Conurbation Public Transport Studyproposed outcomes at 2025 48

Figure 29 Pre erred strategy 50


5/64GLASGOW AND THE CLYDE VALLEY STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN MAIN ISSUES REPORT SEPTEMBER 2010 Foreword

Foreword by Councillor Graham Scott Chair , Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Planning Authority

The Glasgow and the Clyde Valley StrategicDevelopment Planning Authority (GCVSDPA) and its

eight constituent local authorities have been tasked

by the Scottish Parliament to look long into the uture

o Scotlands oremost city-region area to vision and

plan its development to 2035 and beyond. As you

can imagine, that is a complex task. The frst real

step is the publication o this Main Issues Report. A

lot o people and organisations have been involved

in pulling together this document and the GCVSDPA

is grate ul or their help and commitment in thinking

long about the Glasgow city-region. At the same time,

it has been impossible to have everyone contribute

to shaping the document, but this next process o

publishing the Main Issues Report is designed to

provide an opportunity or all those who wish to make

an input, to so do. We are designating a consultation

period o eight weeks to allow or these inputs. We

also will provide, or those in terested, a wealth o

technical material which in orms this Report.

Whilst the subject o the Main Issues Report is

inherently physical - where we build new businesses

and homes, new shopping complexes and new

transport systems; how we improve the environment

in which we live and play; how we manage our

connections with our economic markets and therest o the UK, Europe and the world - the primary

outcome is a statutory Strategic Development Plan -but the real subject is all about people and a vision

or the uture o the city-region. The Plan, which

will emerge rom this process, will shape their living

environment over the next twenty-fve years and

beyond. However, we do not start rom scratch we

already have a highly sustainable long-term strategy in

place what we are on is a journey to delivering that

strategy and ensuring that it remains relevant to the

uture. That uture will see urther global pressures in

terms o economic change, petroleum consumption

and prices, shi ts to new sources o energy, to new

orms o transport and a new emphasis on sustainable

transport, a continued renewal o interest in cities as

economic engines. Competition between cities and

city-groupings will intensi y. We are already seeing this

accelerate across Europe and beyond.

The Glasgow and Clyde Valley city-region will

not be excluded rom these pressures and it is vital

that we continue to think long and plan long with a

ocus on the big picture vision rather than on local

interests. We need not ocus on that level in this

SDP process - that level will be addressed ully by

the individual constituent local authorities within the

big picture ramework resulting rom this strategic

visioning process. The new legislation under which the Authority operates envisages a more ocused strategic

response to change through the SDP process and anew enhanced ocus and responsibility or their local

development planning unction.

The vision in this document is or the Glasgow

and Clyde Valley city-region to be a competitive and

attractive European city-region which is tailored to

ft changing global circumstances and which will

not be le t behind in the process o global change.

It will develop an economy increasingly less reliant

upon carbon, with a real ocus on urban li e, a high-

quality environment and an integrated urban-rural

relationship. The vision aims to stimulate population

growth to support the city-region economy.

I encourage everyone to get involved with the

Authority, its councils and partners in helping to shape

the uture o Glasgow and the Clyde Valley.

Councillor Graham Scott

Chair

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development

Planning Authority


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7/64GLASGOW AND THE CLYDE VALLEY STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN MAIN ISSUES REPORT SEPTEMBER 2010 3

Main Issues ReportUsing this document

Aims and purpose

Using this document

The content and purpose o a Main Issues Report(MIR) are clearly laid out in legislation. It is to explainthe Strategic Development Planning Authoritys overallvision or a long-term uture, in this case to 2035, andthe development strategy needed to deliver that vision

or the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley city-region, inessence, where new strategic development shouldand should not take place.

This MIR is intended to emphasise vision and the longterm. How that vision and development strategy are

eshed out at the detailed level is the responsibilityo the eight local authorities o the GCV area throughtheir local development plans (LDP) and through arange o their corporate operations.

The Strategic Development Plan (SDP) and its MIR isabout creating the long-term ramework or action andsetting the direction o travel or developing the GCVarea into the long term.

An MIR can highlight elements o current strategiesand plans which remain pertinent to the long-term

uture. In that case, Glasgow and the Clyde Valley hasthe beneft o a widely acknowledged MetropolitanDevelopment Strategy (MDS), put together between2000 and 2008 and approved throughout that decadeby the Scottish Ministers.

The MDS provides a strong oundation or the SDPupon which to build uture strategy and its substantivecomponents. But the SDP and its MIR is about a more

ocused direction or strategy .

It cannot be stressed strongly enough that the MIR

does not seek to replace the previously approvedstrategy and its land allocations which continue tohave relevance. These locations are integral to on-going local planning and their role in delivering thestrategy and giving confdence to investors.

The purpose o this MIR is to map out the uturedirection o that strategy and be more ocused onthose locations and development priorities that willmeet uture strategic challenges and drivers- or-change, allowing the on-going development planprocess to promote, sa eguard and/or deliver relevantlocations rom previous strategic plans.

Once approved by the Scottish Ministers, the SDP willreplace the previous generation o Structure Plans.

The current Development Strategy and its legacy areunder constant monitoring and review; the maximuminterval or review being fve years, thus keepingstrategy up-to-date and attuned to those orces whichare driving change within the wider economic, socialand environmental context.

Legislation makes clear that MIRs are not d ra tversions o plans, but are Issues documents whichhighlight key changes rom previous plans andwhich highlight the Strategic Development Planning

Authoritys big ideas - the Vision - or uturedevelopment, including pre erred and alternativelocations, where reasonable, and be underwritten by asound evidence base.

The MIR is e ectively an engagement andconsultation document which is designed to providea vehicle or all stakeholders through which they canengage with the GCVSDPA and its constituent localauthorities in shaping the long-term uture o theGlasgow and Clyde Valley area, Scotlands largest andprimary city-region complex.

Engaging with the MIR and the GCVSDPA

Sections and questions

This document is written in sections and at the endo each section the reader will fnd a set o questionsrelating to its content. These questions are intended to

ocus the readers thinking and provide a rameworkor their responses.

A glossary o terms is included to assist the reader.

The GCVSDPA would be grate ul i readers coulduse these questions to engage with the MIR and the

Authority when responding to the MIR.

How to respond

Responses can be made in writing to:

Dr Grahame BuchanStrategic Development Plan ManagerGlasgow and the Clyde ValleyStrategic Development Planning Authority

Lower ground oor125 West Regent StreetGlasgowG2 2SA

by email to:[email protected]

or through the consultation section othe GCVSDPA website at:www.gcvsdpa.gov.uk/mir

Area covered by theGlasgow and the Clyde Valley Strategic Development Plan

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4 GLASGOW AND THE CLYDE VALLEY STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN MAIN ISSUES REPORT SEPTEMBER 2010

Introducing the IssuesThe ve primary strategic planning issues acing the city-region to 2035

For the Glasgow andthe Clyde Valley city-

region to achieve its long-term vision by 2035, a

number of issues needto be addressed, rangingfrom external economicconnections to regional

regeneration and economic positioning and the creationof a high quality livingenvironment to attract

and retain a highly-skilled population.

Breaking down distanceto economic markets

The Glasgow and Clyde Valleyarea is a city-region economyon the northern edge o its UKand European markets. Tacklingthis marginal location through

improved sustainable transportconnectivity, in the orm o HighSpeed Rail (HSR), is essential

or long-term competitiveness.However, air travel remains anessential, i less sustainable,economic linkage or the city-region and must remain even

a ter HSR connectivity replacesshort-haul air travel. Internationalroutes and increased penetrationo such, can only be achievedthrough air travel and will remaina key aspect o the long-termeconomy. In addition, the scaleo the regional economy is arelated issue and increasedcritical mass through greatercollaboration with the Edinburghcity-region is equally essential orcompetitiveness.

1 Supporting a sustainableeconomyGrowing the regional economyis vital to the long-term vision orthe city-region area - creatingnew jobs and attracting newmigrants and stimulating

population growth - but thisgrowth needs to be achievedwithin our environmentalcapacity. Promoting sustainabledevelopment locationswhich help to reduce carbonconsumption and reduce ourgreenhouse gas emissions

will help to address climatechange and help achievesustainable economic growth.

A key requirement will be theneed to improve accessibility bysustainable transport modes toour key economic locations.

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GLASGOW AND THE CLYDE VALLEY STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN MAIN ISSUES REPORT SEPTEMBER 2010 5

Promoting environmental action- an economic necessity

Environmental quality, greenin rastructure and improvedconnectivity between urban andrural spaces are vital componentsin city-region competitiveness.

The drive or sustainableeconomic growth needscomplementary action to realisethese objectives.

3 Promoting sustainable locationsor developmentSustainable economic growth willrequire long-term developmentcapacity to support it, newbusiness and employment, newhomes, investment in sustainable

transport, and communityacilities. The key challenge

is in identi ying and securingdevelopment locations that areaccessible by public transportand which reduce reliance upontravel by private car. Minimisingthe carbon ootprint o the

city-region through identi yingsustainable locations andrecycling land will be central tothese objectives.

4 Tackling risk -strategic development prioritiesCapital investment will bein limited supply throughoutthe rst hal o the Strategy.Identi ying and phasing ourdevelopment and investment

priorities will be central tomaximising returns on thatlimited investment. There is aneed there ore to minimise therisk to the long-term vision by

ocusing on our key priorities.

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1Introduction

South Lanarkshire

North Lanarkshire

East Dunbartonshire West Dunbartonshire

East Renfrewshire

Renfrewshire

Inverclyde

Glasgow City

Legislative background

1.1 The Scottish Governments planning legislation,the Planning etc (Scotland) Act 2006 , which cameinto orce in February 2009, introduced into thestatutory planning legislation, the need or aStrategic Development Plan (SDP) to replace theprevious generation o Structure Plans in Scotland.The preparation o an SDP applies only to the ourcity-regions o Scotland, o which Glasgow and theClyde Valley is the most signifcant in economic anddemographic terms.

1.2 Two additional pieces o Scottish Governmentlegislation, the Town and Country Planning(Development Planning) (Scotland) Regulations 2008 and Planning Circular 1, 2009 Development Planning provide urther legislative detail as to the process bywhich such Strategic Development Plans are to beprepared and submitted to the Scottish Ministers.

1.3 The Glasgow and the Clyde Valley StrategicDevelopment Planning Authority (GC VSDPA),comprising the eight local authorities o the Glasgowand the Clyde Valley city-region area namely EastDunbartonshire, East Ren rewshire, Glasgow City,Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Ren rewshire, SouthLanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire, has beenestablished and tasked by its above-mentionedauthorities to co-ordinate and acilitate the preparationand publication o an SDP or the city-region.

1.4 The initial key step in the new SDP process - thepublication and submission to Scottish Ministers o aDevelopment Plan Scheme (DPS) which sets out theGCVSDPAs timetable o publications leading to theSDP itsel - has been prepared with copies o the DPSbeing made available through public libraries, localauthority o fces and through the GCVSDPAs website.In the DPS, the Authority identifed September 2010 asthe publication date or what is the second key stage indeveloping an SDP - its Main Issues Report (MIR).

1.5 This publication ulfls the requirements o the above

legislation in producing an MIR or public consultation. A wide range o pro essional sta rom the GC VSDPAand its constituent authorities, as well as rom the Key

Agencies, rom pro essional planning consultancies,rom the development sector and rom a wide range

o interested stakeholders, have been instrumental inshaping the MIR and its content.

1.6 It is important that readers understand the signifcanceo the SDP and what it means or the uture o the city-region. The SDP sets the overall direction or strategy

or development and investment in the city-region orthe next twenty-fve years - it sets out the big picture- and by doing so, when approved by the ScottishMinisters, creates the principle or development in thekey strategic locations set out in the Plan. The relateddetailed land use designations and policy context isthe remit o the Local Development Plan (LDP) processand other related governmental legislative provisions.So engagement at the SDP level is essential or allinterested parties i they wish to in uence the overallshape o the city-region to 2035. More downstreamdetail is added to the SDP and LDP processes by theDevelopment Management process through individualPlanning Applications.

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley city-region local authoritiesFigure 1

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1Introduction

Content o the Main Issues Report

1.7 This MIR comprises three components:

Component One The MIR itsel is designed to highlight the mainissues o change surrounding the uture pre erredgeography o development across the city-region to2035 and to highlight any reasonable alternatives tothat development strategy and its locational prioritiesIt includes signifcant legacy elements carried orward

rom the current approved GCV Joint Structure Plan,2000 and 2006.

Component Two The evidential base and all relevant process activitiesare set out in a range o accompanying BackgroundReports.

Component Three The MIR is accompanied by a StrategicEnvironmental Assessment (SEA) in the orm o anEnvironmental Report and ulfls a set o requirementsestablished under relevant SEA legislation.

SDP governmental planning context

1.8 The MIR is not prepared in a policy vacuum. TheScottish Government has published the NationalPlanning Framework 2 (NPF2), 2009, which setsout a number o key strategic development priorities

or the next twenty-fve years at the all-Scotland leveland must be taken into account in preparing the MIR- several o these national developments relate to thecity-region. Additionally, the Scottish Government haspublished the Strategic Transport Projects Review (STPR) which sets out its transport investment priorities

or the period 2012/22, o which a number relate tothe city-region and which equally provide a ramework

or the transport priorities within the MIR. Further tothese key documents and t heir declared priorities,the Scottish Government has published ScottishPlanning Policy (SPP), February 2010, which sets aclear planning policy direction within which the MIRmust be prepared.

1.9 These key documents will b e re erenced throughout theMIR where their provisions have a key role to play inshaping the Vision and Spatial Strategy o the MIR.

The development strategy or Glasgow and the Clyde Valley to 2035Submission of

Proposed Plan in 2011

Governmental and legislativecontext to

2035

NationalPlanning

Framework reviewed every

5 years

StrategicPlanning

PolicySPP

StrategicTransportProjectsReview

STPR10 years

Scottish governmental context or the GCV Strategic Development PlanFigure 2


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1Introduction

The Current Strategic Plansor Glasgow and the Clyde Valley

1.10 The GCVSDPAs predecessor organisation, theGlasgow and the Clyde Valley Structure Plan JointCommittee (GCVSPJC) published a number o strategic(Structure) plans, each o which has been approvedby the Scottish Ministers. In 2000, the GCVSPJCsubmitted its frst Joint Structure Plan which wassubsequently approved by the Scottish Ministers in2002 and in 2006, the same organisation, based upona fve-year monitor and review programme, submittedthe 2006 Joint Structure Plan which was subsequentlyapproved in 2008. In between, where necessary, thesame organisation prepared and submitted a numbero Alterations to the approved Structure Plans, withthe intention o keeping its strategic plans up-to-date.This suite o Structure Plans and Alterations, the mostrecent o which was approved in 2009, provides astrong legacy or the SDP.

Taking Strategic Planningor Glasgow and the Clyde Valley orward

1.11 The GCVSDPA has there ore inherited a legacy o up-to-date approved strategic plans. Planning Circular 1 ,paragraphs 11 and 12, stipulates that the SDPA is tomonitor any existing strategic plan and to publish aMonitoring Statement alongside the publication o anyMIR. Background Report 01 to this MIR comprisesthe necessary Monitoring Statement. Consequently, theGCVSDPA does not start rom scratch in this process- clear long-term thinking and sustainable planning isalready in place with signifcant commitment rom thelocal planning process. The task now is to shape thatthinking to meet changing global pressures and newand emerging drivers o change. This MIR is designedto present how the city-region should respond tosuch change drivers and how the uture SDP shouldaccommodate new thinking and development to 2035.

1.12 Two aspects o the SDP approach need stressing -frstly, the SDP, when published in 2011, will take along-view o the city-region, looking to 2035, althoughmany o the quantitative projections and orecastslook only to 2025, because o the inherent uncertaintyassociated with such long-term calculations. Theperiod 2025 to 2035 is there ore all about a cleardirection o travel or strategy rather than detailedplanning.

Secondly, the Metropolitan Development Strategy willbe under constant monitoring, and reviews will takeplace every fve years to ensure its continuing relevanceto key drivers o change. This review programmewill allow the GCVSDPA the ability to anticipate andrespond to any changes in that wider environmentand10/or respond to actual observed changes.

1.13 It is also important to be aware o the ScottishGovernments desire to see SDPs as more strategicaction-oriented plans and their consequent stipulationthat the SDP, when submitted, be accompanied byan Action Plan setting out how the proposals o theStrategy are to be implemented and by whom. Thisprovision has implications or stakeholder buy-in to theStrategy and or the process o deciding priorities andsequencing thereo . It is important there ore that theMIR be clear in this respect and provide the basis orcollective delivery o the development strategy.

The logic and fow o the Main Issues Report

1.14 Figure 4 sets out the structure and ow o theMain Issues Report.

document submitted approved Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Joint Structure Plan 2000 2000 2002First Alteration Ravenscraig 2003 2006Second Alteration Glasgow International Airport 2004 2005Third Alteration Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Joint Structure Plan 2006 2006 2008Fourth Alteration Commercial Centres Retail Locations 2008 2009

Legacy prior to 2010

The current Metropolitan Development Strategy

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Joint Structure Plan publication and approval timelineFigure 3


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1Introduction

The current Metropolitan Development Strategy

and key drivers o change to 2035

The current Metropolitan Development Strategy Legacy prior to 2010

Framing the Development Vision Economy

andpopulation

Sustainableeconomic

growth anddevelopment

Climatechange

mitigation

Environmentallegislationand action

ScottishGovernments

planningand policydirection

Publicexpenditure

situation

The development vision to 2035 Looking tothe future

Main issues and challenges orthe Strategic Development Plan

Economic and demographiccontext to

2035

Issue 1 Breaking down

distanceto economic

markets

Issue 2 Supporting asustainable

economy

Issue 3 Promoting

environmentalaction

Issue 4 Promoting

sustainabledevelopment

locations

Issue 5 Tackling risk -

strategicdevelopment

priorities

The development strategy or Glasgow and the Clyde Valley to 2035Submission of

Proposed Plan in 2011

Main Issues Report structure and fowFigure 4


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Glasgow Airport ( Inchinnan )

West of ScotlandScience Park

Glasgow Airport ( Linwood )

Peel Park North

Inverclyde Riverside

Robroyston

Clydebank Riverside

Scottish EnterpriseTechnology Park

ClydeGateway

CityScience GartcoshPacificQuay

Eurocentral

Glasgow Airport ( Westway )

Hamilton InternationalTechnology Park

Hillington / Renfrew North IFSD

Bishopton

Ravenscraig

Poniel

ClydeGateway

ClydeWaterfront

Riverside Inverclyde

Ravenscraig Motherwell

Wishaw

Community Growth Areas

Green Network

Metropolitan Flagship Initiatives

The legacy o the Glasgow and the Clyde Valley Joint Structure PlanFigure 5

Crown copyright and database right 2010. All rights reserved. Ordnance Survey Licence number 100032510


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6.4 The nature o the most appropriate sustainablelink remains to be solved. At the same time,improvements to its current road-basedaccessibility rom the M8 motorway, as identifedin the 2006 Structure Plan, remain a signifcantrequirement as GIA is dependent upon road-based access until such time as more sustainableaccess options are delivered.

ClydeGateway

ClydeWaterfront

Riverside

Inverclyde

Ravenscraig Motherwell

Wishaw

Vacant and derelict land 2009

Scottish Index o Multiple Deprivation 2009 (top 15%)

Vacant and derelict land and index o multiple deprivation (top 15%)Figure 6



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2Legacy o the existing Metropolitan Development Strategy

2.3Despite the progress being made to deliver theMDS since 2000 and the various national levelprojects in the pipeline, a number o structuralspatial characteristics remain high p rofle in thecity-region.

A Vacant and Derelict Land An enduring urban, peri-urban and rural themewith some 4,753 hectares still identifed ( Figure 6 and Background Report 02 ). This landresource is subject to the continuous churn odevelopment and all-out resulting in a persistentand signifcant issue with over 20% o sites beingvacant or derelict since be ore 1985. This trendis amplifed by the scale o under-used peri-urban land, o ten arising rom development hopevalue or rom the incursion o urban communitiesinto ormerly actively armed land. Whilst notdefned as vacant and derelict land, it is land thatis neglected in productive terms and might beconsidered a peri-urban equivalent o the urbanvacant and derelict land. In total terms, however,the combined resource o urban and peri-urbano ers a substantive land bank or sustainabledevelopment and structured environmental

action; or example, the potential to return toactive economic use through development ornew renewable energies, thus o ering land-owners an alternative income to that lost romactive production or anticipated rom expandingo ten non-sustainable urban development.

BDeprived and excluded communities An enduring legacy rom economic change withthe city-region contains 59% o Scotlands f teenpercent most deprived datazones ( Figure 6 ).These are communities subject to poor qualityliving environments, poor health, poor skilling,limited accessibility and opportunities to addressthese issues. These issues continue to impacton the city-regions image and its economiccompetitiveness. Whilst many o these issuesrequire integrated governance, particularly at anational level, spatial planning has the opportunityto ocus on the environmental and accessibilityaspects o their quality o li e.

The ollowing key messages can be drawnrom this Section regarding the major structural

components o the existing strategic plan legacy:

their continuing relevance to the sustainabledevelopment o the city-region;

their identifcation in the ScottishGovernments NPF2 as long-term nationaldevelopment priorities;

their relative in ancy in terms o their on-going delivery; and

their inclusion within the SDP as continuingrelevant components o a sustainabledevelopment strategy.

Legacy

The a orementioned legacy elementsare already key components o strategicthinking at both Scottish and city-regionlevels and also have been approved bythe Scottish Ministers as key to our long-term thinking. As such, they provide asolid oundation upon which to build andthe continue the direction o travel o thesustainable trans ormation o the city-region.

Question 1Do you agree with the continuingrole o these legacy elements in

moving rom the previous generationo Structure Plans to the newgeneration o Strategic DevelopmentPlans?

Question 2I not, in your view, which legacyelements need incorporation romthe previous generation o StructurePlans into the new generation oStrategic Development Plans?


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3Strategic drivers o change or the SDP

are inextricably linked - a healthy economy pulls in peopleto match jobs and stimulates natural growth; a weak economy can lead to population loss as people seek jobselsewhere.

The regional population until the early 2000s had beendominated by outward migration and by aging.

The regions economic per ormance in the 2003/08 periodturned that around, creating a trend o positive net in-migration up to 2011.

The recession has dampened the rate o in-migration, yetit remains the key objective i population decline is to beavoided. The key driver o change to 2035 is the regionaleconomy.

The economy and populationare cornerstones o the Scottish Governments long-termambition or Scotland.

The regions economy to 2035 will complete its long-termtransition rom a heavy industrial ocus to the servicessector.

Planning or that economy will need development capacityin sustainable locations.

At the same time, energy sources to service that economywill need to shi t rom carbon-based to alternative energies(by breaking the link between economic growth and carbonusage) and the SDP strategy must look to assist thatprocess and to plan or alternative energies.

The combination o sustainable locations and alternativeenergy development are urther key drivers o change orthe SDP.

Sustainable economic growthand development

Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) resulting rom carbonconsumption are posing a major threat to the worldsclimate systems.

66% o the regions emissions stem rom its urban abricand rom its transport.

Making an impact regionally on statutory mitigation targets- the interim by 2020 o a 42% reduction in GHG whilstcreating momentum towards achieving the 2050 target o80% reduction - means the SDPs spatial planning strategymust ocus on these key sectors.

Long-term mitigation strategy is there ore a key driver ochange or the SDP.

Climate change mitigation

in the ace o global environmental pressures, a suiteo relevant EU and Scottish Parliament legislation withstatutory targets provide a legislative background o drivers

or the SDP:

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009

The Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009

River Basin Management Planning

Zero Waste Plan Scotland

At the same time, positive environmental action andinvestment to meet economic, social and environmentalimperatives are key drivers o change.

Environmental legislationand action

There are already in place, through the ScottishGovernment, a number o strategic planning and capitalinvestment documents which rame Scottish regionalstrategies into the long-term - the National PlanningFramework 2 - a twenty- ve year horizon, the ScottishPlanning Policy (SPP), the Strategic Transport Projects

Review (STPR) - a twenty year horizon.

The SPP provides the policy umbrella under which the SDPmust be ramed.

The key provisions o the SPP revolve around sustainableeconomic growth, sustainable development, and climatechange mitigation, providing clear policy direction to theshaping o the SDP.

Scottish Governmentsplanning and policy direction

The recession since 2008 has had major impact globallyparticularly in the UK whose nancial institutions hadsigni cant exposure to the root causes o the recession.

In common with equivalents throughout the world, the UK and Scottish governments have been putting in place major

scal changes to address the causes and the impacts othe recession and reduce exposure to uture economicfuctuations.

The consequences or the uture will be severe publicexpenditure restraint and a lack o private capital resourcesto deliver development strategies.

The lack o investment capital will drive a prioritisationprocess which in combination will be a key driver in theSDP.

Public expenditure picture

City-region strategic drivers o change to 2035Figure 7


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3Strategic drivers o change or the SDP


Introduction

3.1 Understanding drivers- or-change is undamentalto understanding the strategic direction and ocuso this Main Issues Report and the subsequentStrategic Development Plan. These driversare the orces shaping the long-term uture.The city-region must there ore compete in aglobalised economy or investment, jobs andskilled people. At the same time, the world is

acing untold pressures ranging rom terrorism tosecurity to energy to natural resource depletion.In the context o long-term petroleum price rises,debate over peak oil, the shi t in global climaticpatterns, sustainable growth and developmento a low-carbon economy have become keyconsiderations or all city-regions.

3.2 Climate change, and all its consequences, iswidely quoted as the biggest global issue andthe drive to reduce petroleum consumption andrelated carbon emissions and to fnd new sourceso energy and new strategies to sustain utureeconomic growth. Such growth remains a primarytarget or all governments - the worlds most

pressing human and environmental issues willnot be cured without such growth. The key liesin governments passing legislation and adoptingstrategies that aim to separate economic growth

rom carbon consumption, whilst minimisingcarbon emission impacts.

3.3 The Scottish Government has committed tothat process. However, the global impact o therecession rom 2009 has resulted in signifcantlyreduced capital expenditure programmes orinvestment in sustainable development whichappears unlikely to be resolved or much o the

orthcoming decade. Together, these variousglobal, environmental and governance pressuresshape the long-term uture or Glasgow and theClyde Valley and its long-term planning needsto be shaped within these drivers or change.Figure 7 illustrates how these drivers create a

uture changing context or the city-region andprovide a ramework or the new SDP.

Strategic drivers o change

Drivers o change are the shaping orcesor long-term strategic thinking and are

instrumental in raming the overall long-termvision or Glasgow and the Clyde Valley to2035 and beyond. It is important to think

beyond just the immediate uture and thecontinuing impact o the recession whichhas the potential to ocus on the immediateterm at the expense o the long-term.

Question 3Do you agree that the six drivers setout in this section are the key change

orces around which revolves the

city-regions uture to 2035?

Question 4Can you identi y other such keydrivers o change that should betaken into account in shaping the

uture SDP?

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4 Vision and principleso the development strategy to 2035

Introduction

4.1 In 2003 and 2008, the eight constituent localauthorities o the Glasgow and the Clyde ValleyCommunity Planning Partnership (GCVCPP)published their corporate vision:

the Glasgow city-region to be one of the mostdynamic, economically competitive and socially cohesive city-regions in Europe. A city-regionwhich prospers and through effective public and

private sector partnership working at all levels, includes all of its people in its success. A place of quality where people choose to live.

4.2 This corporate vision remains in p lace. The SDPsrole is to be the land-use strategy documentthat delivers the physical oundation o thatvision. The SDPs development vision is sub jectto its own set o change drivers which requirea uture geography to support sustainablecompetitiveness and deliver the quality o p laceenvisaged in the GCVCPP corporate vision.

4.3 Working with a wide range o stakeholders, the

GCVSDPA, through its Strategic Futures Group( Background Report 03 ), addressed uturedrivers o change ( Section 3 ) and how theywould shape the SDP development vision. Arange o uture development scenarios weregenerated. What emerged rom this process andthe testing o the MDS legacy was a consensusaround the oundation o current strategicthinking, whilst recognising a need to refne thisthinking urther to meet uture challenges to 2035.

4.4 The Development Vision comprises

the Spatial Vision to 2035 which emergesrom the consideration o the drivers o

change and rom the Futures process shownin Figures 8 and 9 ; and

the key Development Principles which willshape the uture geography o the city-regionas shown in Figure 10 .

Key locations in the city-region, withGlasgow city centre as the central core, andall accessed by a network o sustainabletransport, will drive a regional low carboneconomy.

Glasgow city centre will be home to a HighSpeed Rail terminus linking the city-region towider developments in high-speed rail in theUK and across Europe. Glasgow Airport willbe linked to more international destinationsthrough urther route developments andwill be linked to the HSR terminus bya sustainable transport connection tointegrate the city-regions external economicconnectivity.

Enhanced strategic rail connectivity - HSR,more requent trains, more integratedtime-tabling will accelerate economiccollaboration with Edinburgh city-regionand provide critical economic mass so thatthe two largest Scottish city-regions arecompetitive with equivalent city-region areasin Europe and beyond.

Economy

Recycled brown eld land - the vacant andderelict land resource - will be developed asthe development priority and environmentalpriority and will be central to developing aquality o li e needed to attract economicactivity, talented people and key investors.

The urban abric will be renewed, basedupon passive carbon-neutral and energy-e cient building standards. The built-uparea o the city-region will be restrictedby developing a selection o sustainablelocations within it, ocusing investmenton maintaining a sustainable compactcity-region.

Run-down and excluded communities willbe regenerated as a central theme o thespatial vision with a ocus on healthy urbanplanning. The Clyde Gateway will providethe model or the regeneration programmeand other candidate areas o the city-regionwill become targets or monitoring andreview as part o that approach.

Economic agglomeration and higher urbandensities will be developed within the city-region core and its satellite urban areas

using existing urban land resources andin sustainable locations. Critical mass tosupport core services will result rom this

ocus. The city-region Flagship Initiativeso the Clyde Corridor and Ravenscraig willbe the key development engines o thisprocess.

The City Centre and the city-regionssurrounding urban cities and towns will orma network o strategic centres identi edby their key roles and unctions. Theywill be the oci or economic activity andcommunity li e, maximising their sustainableaccessibility.

Urban abric

Key components o the spatial vision to 2035Figure 8

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4 Vision and principles

o the development strategy to 2035

A network o sustainable transport networkswill integrate the rest o the city-region withthe city centres HSR terminus and shrinkthe distance between the city centre andits region. Sustainable transport investmentwill be a key priority or government linked

to private capital unding. The STPR willprovide the oundation or that programmeo investment.

New and upgraded water and drainagenetworks will underlie the regenerated urbanareas driven by the Metropolitan GlasgowStrategic Development Plan (MGSDP),providing a model or co-ordinated action bydi erent sectors and di erent organisationsco-operating to solve strategic investment insuch in rastructure.

Public transport - integrated mass transitsystems - eg trains, trams, buses, willbe the key sustainable transport mode,along with promotion o active travel,providing the alternative to the private carwith development prioritised to locationsaccessible by such sustainable transport.The growth o existing communities will bebased on this locational policy, as evidencedby the continued ocus on the legacy o

Community Growth Areas (CGAs) romcurrent approved strategic plans.

In rastructure

Green in rastructure - open space, ormaland in ormal, green corridors and pathways,playing spaces, parks, trees and naturalgreen spaces will be key parts o the urbanenvironment o the city-region. It will bethe ocus or action to improve the living

environment, aid competitiveness, developnew economic and energy developments,enhance biodiversity, provide opportunities

or healthy living and integrate the urban -rural areas o the city-region. The Glasgowand the Clyde Valley Green Network, linkedto and integrated with the Central ScotlandGreen Network will provide the ramework

or a wide range o action addressing suchmyriad objectives.

Woodland will be planted and whereexisting, will be managed around and withinthe urban areas, becoming integral to theurban areas green in rastructure planning.It will address a range o key objectives,including economic competitiveness,health programmes, energy developmentand climate change mitigation in particular.Commercial orests addressing the UKstimber demand will characterise the rurallandscape where relevant. These two roleswill complement each other as well asproviding increasingly signi cant carbon

sink capacity to mitigate carbon emissionsand reduce the potential or continuedclimate change.

Environment

Decentralised distributed power plants,based on alternative technologies, will belocated across the city-region exploitingopportunities to develop biomass, combinedheat-and-power (CHP) and other orms orenewable energy across the urban, peri-

urban and rural areas.

Energy

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Drivers o change

S c ot t i s h

G ov

er nm

ent s

pl anni n

g an

d p ol i c

y d i r e

ct i on

E nv i r onm

ent al l e

gi s l at i on

an

d a ct i on

C l i m

at e

ch

an

g em

i t i g at i on

S u s t ai n

a b l e

e c on

omi c

gr owt h

an

d d ev el o

pm

ent

E c on

om

y an

d p o p ul at i on

P u b l i c

ex

p en

d i t ur

e s i t u

at i on

T h e s p a

t i a

l v

i s i o n

Agglomeration, density and critical mass

City centre and urban centres

Sustainable transport and in rastructure unding priorities

Modal shi t and sustainable transport

Alternative energies

Green in rastructure

Regeneration

Industrial to service transition

Peripherality o economy

Collaboration

Urban quality and brown eld resource

Renewal o urban abric and low carbon

Economic growth and the low carbon economy

Spatial vision and strategic drivers o changeFigure 9

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City-region service-based economies,as exhibited by competitor areasacross Europe and the globe, thriveon the economies o agglomeration -o clustering together and exploiting

economies o scale and labour marketaccessibility through mass transit publictransport.

Agglomeration

Strategies to reduce the developedootprint o the city-region area, and

which support healthy urban planning,will serve to reduce the consumptiono undeveloped land. These strategies

will also reduce the city-regions carbonpro le whilst maximising currentinvestment in the urban abric andin rastructure.

Densi cation, regenerationand renewal

City-region areas which have seensubstantive economic restructuring andtransition can have a signi cant legacy opreviously developed land (the brown eldresource), o ten vacant and derelict, and

a legacy o urban ringe or peri-urbanland where development pressures haverendered uncertainty and subsequentunder-use.

Returning such land to productive usereduces the consumption o undevelopedland and the spatial ootprint o thecity-region.

Environmental recoveryand land recycling

Integration o the urban and ruralcomponents o a city-region is anincreasingly common strategic goalin city-region development strategiesworld-wide.

At the heart o this principle is the multi-objective role o the urban, peri-urban andrural environments, ocusing on place-setting and economic competitiveness,on resource development, quality o li e,health bene ts, biodiversity developmentand protection, and a wide range o otherroles.

A multi-objectiveenvironment

A closer integration between developmentlocations and sustainable transportnetworks provides the potential orgreater modal shi t rom private carto public transport. In addition, thepromotion o active travel will help toreduce transport emissions, mitigateclimate change e ects and improvehealth.

At the same, such integration addressessome o the basic diseconomies oagglomeration and densi cation - thosee ects associated with congestion.

Land-use and transportintegration

Where sustainable transport is not acredible option or moving goods andmaterial, in order to reduce the needto travel and / or to limit the distancestravelled, the proximity principle will bea legitimate principle in terms o de ningdevelopment locations.

In e ect, a local solution to a strategicneed may be the most appropriate interms o a sustainable strategy.

Proximity principleand local supply

Development principles o the spatial vision to 2035Figure 10

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Residential 34%

Transport 25%

Industry 19%

Services 10%

Fugitive emissions 9%

Energy industry 3%

Glasgow and theClyde Valley city-region

emissions by sector2005

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley city-region greenhouse gas emissionsFigure 11

Scotland greenhouse gas emissions

55 .70 million tonnesCO2 equivalent

2004

Glasgow and theClyde Valley city-region greenhouse gas emissions 2004

15 .52

million tonnes CO2 equivalent

2004

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4.5 Alongside the work o the Strategic FuturesGroup (SFG), a separate body o work, with awide variety o private and public sector bodies,but including the SFG, was undertaken with theUniversity o Manchester to model scenarioso one o the key drivers - climate change( Background Report 04 ). The key issue toemerge rom this work was the challenge o theexisting urban abric - 44% o all GCV emissions -and o transport - 25% o emissions ( Figure 11 ).

4.6 E ectively, two-thirds o the GCV emissionsemanate rom the working o the urban areas.Since these areas are the primary locationso economic activity, their concentration oemissions levels is understandable. However,it demonstrates the challenge to strategicdevelopment planning laid down by the ScottishGovernments emissions reduction targets, andthose o the EU and the UK. I economic growth isto be delivered with urban centres as the primarysource o emissions, the SDPs spatial vision mustbe built upon sustainable development principlesto ensure that the urban abric is renewed and

regenerated on sustainable standards andsustainable public transport replaces the privatecar as the pre erred option or the majority ourban-based trips.

Vision and principles

This development vision is built aroundvarious drivers o change and relatedscenarios o the uture. It specifcally seeksa shape built upon sustainable principlesand upon a uture quality o offer which

would attract investment and people tothe city-region through a quality o li eapproach. It is important to look beyondthe current recession and its short-termimpacts.

Question 5Do you agree with the vision, as setout here, or the uture long-termdevelopment o the city-region?

I not, what coherent spatial vision would you advocate?

Question 6Do you agree that the developmentprinciples set out here provide the

oundation or raming a sustainableSDP strategy?

I not, which principles should theGCVSDPA adopt?

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5Main issues and key challengeso the development strategy to 2035

Introduction

5.1 In order to estimate demand or development to2035 in the city-region and there ore to identi ythe main issues and challenges aced in deliveringthe long-term vision to 2035, it is important tolook at the uture city-region economy and itsimpact on the population utures which mayemerge. The health and rate o growth o theeconomy has a correlation with both net migrationand natural change within the population and isthe key driver o change or the long-term utureo the city-region.

5.2 The city-regions population since the 1970s hasbeen marked by sustained net out-migrationin response to restructuring o the regionaleconomy. The net result has been a alling andat the same time, aging population. In the earlyyears o the 2000s associated with strong regionaleconomic growth rates, that trend started to showa dramatic slowing associated with increasinglevels o net in-migration coupled with increasesthrough natural change. This demographic shi twas re ected in the Joint Structure Plan 2000,Third Alteration 2006, in the orm o its Agenda for Sustained Growth .

Glasgow and the Clyde Valley economy to 2035

5.3 The global recession o 2008 has had majorimplications or the city-region economy. TheGCVSDPA in 2009 and 2010 commissionedOx ord Economics (OE) to analyse the city-regioneconomy and its long-term uture ( BackgroundReport 05 ). This analysis orms the basis orreassessing demographic change to 2035. Whilstthe economy is considered in greater detail in Section 6: Issue 2 , it is important to highlight

the key changes in the economy and their links topotential long-term demographic utures.

5.4 Essentially, the city-region economy is expectedto continue its process o restructuring rom its

ormer industrial manu acturing base to its currentservice-based economy in line with other city-regions worldwide. Growth rates in the economy,however, are anticipated to be considerably belowthose experienced between 2002 and 2008 priorto the recession. Pre-recession growth rates arenot expected to be attained until the early 2020s- in e ect, a ten-year time-lag in growth, coupled

with suppressed demand, has been introduced bythe recession. The key e ect o these actors onthe city-region will be upon net migration fgures -both inward and outward.

Population utures

5.5 Given that there is inherent uncertainty in anylong-term orecasts and projections o theeconomy, two demographic scenarios havebeen prepared, re ecting di ering net migration

utures ( Background Report 06 ). Common toboth scenarios, however, is an increased level onatural change and an increasing level o aging(60 plus) in the city-regions population.

Scenario 1

Lower migration based upon the General Registers O fce

or Scotland (GROS) 2006-base principalprojection, but with updated migrationassumptions.

Scenario 2Higher migration based on the Agenda for Sustained Growth

rom the Joint Structure Plan 2000, Third Alteration 2006, but with updated migrationassumptions.

5.6 In the period since work began on developingthese scenarios, the GROS has published theirlatest projections, including both their principalprojection and a higher migration variant tore ect uncertainty in migration ows. These areincluded or comparison with the two scenariosshown. Figures 12 and 13 illustrate the di eringpopulation and household projections associatedwith these alternative utures.

Population change 2008 / 25

Population

2008

Population

2025

Change

2008 / 25

Annual

2008 / 16

Annual

2016 / 20

Annual

2020 / 25

Scenario 1Lower migration

1,755,310 1,778,181 +22,871 +1,798 +1,397 +581

Scenario 2Higher migration

1,755,310 1,822,048 +66,738 +3,347 +4,108 +4,706

GROSLow migration

1,755,310 1,719,932 +35,378 +1,119 +2,224 +3,505

GROSPrincipal

1,755,310 1,772,696 +17,386 +1,838 +890 -176

GROSHigh migration

1,755,310 1,807,804 +52,494 +3,558 +3,187 +2,257

Population change 2008 / 25Figure 12

Population2008

Population2025

Change2008 / 25

Annual2008 / 16

Annual2016 / 20

Annual2020 / 25

Scenario 1Lower migration

804,708 901,052 +96,344 +6,276 +5,495 +4,830

Scenario 2Higher migration

804,708 918,408 +113,700 +6,805 +6,576 +6,591

GROSLow migration

795,410 860,130 +64,720 +4,614 +3,735 +2,574

GROSPrincipal

795,410 882,980 +87,570 +5,810 +5,160 +4,090

GROSHigh migration

795,405 899,728 +104,323 +6,584 +6,287 +5,300

Household change 2008 / 25Figure 13

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5Main issues and key challenges


A Planning Scenario or the city-region to 2035

5.7 As can be seen rom Figures 12 and 13 ,Scenario 2 presents a more optimistic pictureo the long-term demographic position in thecity-region in comparison to other scenarios.The economic orecasts prepared by OE suggestthat Scenario 1 , the lower migration trend, mostrealistically re ects OEs economic position.However, OE also modelled a higher migrationvariant scenario o the city-region economy whichis similar to Scenario 2 , the higher migrationtrend, but was signifcantly economy-dependent.

5.8 In e ect, net migration levels which support theScenario 2 demographics are dependent upona more optimistic recovery o the city-regioneconomy and a quicker return to past growthrates than those o current advocated orecasts.In terms o selecting a Planning Scenario , theGCVSDPA must address the implications o bothscenarios

5.9 In order to per orm its role in supporting theGCVCPP corporate vision ( Section 4 ) and to beconsistent with previous decisions on economicgrowth as set out in existing strategic plans orthe city-region, it would there ore be appropriateto select Scenario 2 as the PlanningScenario or the MIR o the SDP as shown inFigure 14 . This decision would provide cleardirection because:

the scenario would provide clear directionand aspiration or sustainable economicgrowth in line with overall vision;

it is developed rom and is there oreconsistent with the economic growthtrajectory o the Joint Structure Plan 2000,Third Alteration 2006, but with reduced netmigration and reduced annual householdgrowth. (It should be noted that the projectedmigration is signifcantly lower than recentrecorded migration);

it is based upon the same economictrajectory as the Joint Structure Plan 2000,Third Alteration 2006, but, because o thetime-lag caused by the world recession rom2008, is now orecast over a considerablylonger time-period rom that anticipated inthat earlier plan;

it very clearly places the city-region economyand its uture development as the pivotaldriver or the SDP spatial strategy andachievement o associated corporate andspatial vision;

it takes orward the logic o increased net in-migration and the need to address the agingtrend o the resident population; and

it introduces a signifcant element oexibility in terms o the demand context or

development.

Demographic scenario 2Higher migration

Visionary -in line with the

Glasgow and theClyde Valley vision

Aspirationaland directional

Ambitious

Inherent lexibility inestimating demand

or development

Aims higher

Rational or selecting

a higher migration scenario

Demand withouteconomic growth

Raises developmentdemand estimatesunrealistically

Unnecessarydevelopmentand allocations

Constrained publicexpenditure

or delivery

Points to consider i selectinga higher migration scenario

Demographic scenario 1Lower migration

Aligned to currenteconomic orecasts

Realistic and pragmatic

Aims lower

Rational or selecting

a lower migration scenario

Lack o aspiration -not in line with the

Glasgow and theClyde Valley vision

Pessimistic view oeconomic growth

Dampened demand

Treading water

Points to consider i selectinga lower migration scenario

Adopting a demographic Planning ScenarioFigure 14

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5Main issues and key challengeso the development strategy to 2035

Introducing the main issues and key challenges

5.10 I the city-region economy is to grow more rapidlythan orecast by key commentators; i it is to securepopulation growth as set out in the PlanningScenario , and i it is to deliver the Spatial Visionas outlined in Figure 9 , a number o issues andchallenges need to be addressed. It should berecognised that spatial planning alone cannot d eliverall o the vision - or instance, the breaking the link oeconomic growth rom carbon consumption will requireintegrated action across all sectors o the economy- but through planning p olicy, spatial planning can

make an e ective contribution. The ollowing sectionintroduces these main issues and key challenges.

Breaking down distanceto economic markets

The economy and its external context

Like other city-regions the GCV area exists in aglobal economic context. Its location is peripheralto its main UK and European markets, whilstin terms o competitive mass, its economy isrelatively small in comparison to competitor city-regions. There ore two key challenges dominatethe planning uture o the city-region economy:

(i) how to improve its wider sustainableconnectivity to markets; and

(ii) how to enhance the scale o its economy andits ability to compete.

1 Supporting a sustainableeconomyThe economy and its internal context

The city-region economy has seen undamentaltrans ormation rom its industrial past to itscurrent service-sector base. It has proven resilientthrough its trans ormation yet continues to ace aconstantly changing and developing competitivecontext as global and governance pressures drivecompetitiveness through urther step-change -this time, the pressure to separate the economy

rom carbon consumption. Two key challengesexist:

(i) identi ying key economic developmentlocations which have the necessary quality,sectoral ocus and accessibility to ostersustainable economic growth; and

(ii) securing their relevant role and unction inline with long-term economic growth sectors.

2

Promoting environmental action- an economic necessity

The economy and the environment

In the modern city-region economy, theenvironment has many roles to play, including,economic resource development andcompetitiveness, environmental diversity,

health, living environment and quality o li e. Inaddressing this complexity the city-region acesthree key challenges:

(i) securing economic development andinvestment whilst achieving environmentalsustainability objectives;

(ii) developing programmes o positive action tointegrate multiple economic, social, healthand environmental objectives; and

(iii) sa eguarding and protecting strategicenvironmental resources.

3 Promoting sustainable locationsor developmentThe economy and supporting development

To support economic and demographic growth inthe city-region new capacity will be required - orexample, new homes, retail centres and acilitiesas well as transport, water and drainage

in rastructure. In developing uture geography orthis new capacity three key challenges exist:

(i) identi ying development locations which meetthese drivers and meet the orecast demand

or new development capacity;

(ii) maximising existing and planned transportand drainage in rastructure capacity; and

(iii) securing, where appropriate, priority orin rastructure investment to support andenhance sustainable locations.

4

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Main issues and key challengeso the development strategy to 2035

5.11 The next Section look at these main issues andchallenges in a more ocused and structured way. Eachsection will set out the proposed geography o uturedevelopment to meet best the development demandsraised by these issues and the key proposals whichthe GCVSDPA regard as priority responses in supporto the long-term strategy. Within each section, thequestion o alternative development approaches andlocations will be addressed.

Main issues and key challenges

In order to plan long-term or the city-region, it is necessary to adopt ademographic Planning Scenario - numbero people and households - which supportsthe overall vision, which sets a clear

direction and rames the nature and scale odemand or development.

The uture per ormance o the economyis the key to the Planning Scenario andis pivotal to delivery o the corporate andspatial visions o the city-region. Supportingthe development o the regional economyis central to the vision. A number o mainissues and challenges ace the SDP interms o its uture economy.

Question 7Do you agree that the GCVSDPA, interms o a growth agenda or the SDP,should use the Planning Scenariowith its assumptions about highernet in-migration and a aster-growingeconomy?

Question 8Do you agree that the fve over-archingmain issues, as set out above, should bethe basis o the SDP in terms o long-term sustainable growth and the deliveryo the plan?

Tackling risk -strategic development priorities

The development strategy, risk and priorities

In the context o severe public expenditurerestraint, already committed public investmentprogrammes and di cult trading conditions orprivate sector investors, there is a distinct riskto the delivery o the Strategy in the short tomedium term with consequent implications or thelonger-term. There ore prioritisation o the SDPsstrategic proposals is undamental to ensuringdelivery and the best strategic return on limitedresources. It will also lay the oundation or the

Action Plan component o the SDP. In addressingrisk through prioritisation, two key challengesarise:

(i) keeping the ocus on priorities in the contexto competing demands; and

(ii) managing the phasing and sequence opriorities in line with available resources.

5

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Introduction

6.1 The GCV city-region, in common with the resto Scotland, can be defned as a peripheraleconomy, on the ringe o both UK and Europeaneconomic markets. Distance rom such primarymarkets has the potential to constrain uturegrowth o both the Scottish economy and itsregional economies, which, when combinedwith the issue o the scale o its economy incomparison to UK, European and internal

competitor city-region areas, raise issuesregarding uture economic competitiveness. I thevision o GCV as a competitive economy is to beachieved, in part at least, these two aspects oexternal connectivity and economic mass need tobe addressed.

Connectivity

Air

6.2 Glasgow International Airport (GIA) is the city-regions primary linkage with the external worldand thus its key gateway, essential to bothbusiness and tourist economies (although itshould be noted that both Prestwick Airport andEdinburgh Airport also serve the city-region)Figure 15 . The city-region and GIA are

undamentally dependent upon each other.However, with questions increasingly being raised

regarding the long-term sustainability o short andmedium-haul air travel, that market is trans erringrom air to high-speed rail across Europe. In the

absence o that investment in rail in rastructurein the UK, GIA must continue as the city-regionsstrategic economic gateway; it would seem atleast until the mid-2020s.

6.3 British Airports Authority (BAA), the currentowners o GIA, is in the process, with partnerstakeholders, o reviewing the long-term master-plan or GIAs development. One o the key issues

or GIAs uture, at master-plan, SDP and NPF2level is the continuing question o its accessibility

rom the rest o the city-region. This haspreviously been highlighted in the Joint StructurePlans and National Planning Frameworks. In line

with the SDPs long-term sustainability drivers,and its aim to develop the city-regions economicrole to match competitor city-regions whereairport rail and bus links are urther advanced,signifcant investment is required in sustainabletransport connections between GIA and the widercity-region. Previous proposals to establish arail-link have been dropped rom the ScottishGovernments investment programme. Figure 16 highlights the strategic planningrole o GIA.

The Main Issues

Issue 1 Breaking down distance to economic markets

Map courtesy o BAA

Glasgow International Airport air routesFigure 15

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6.4 The nature o the most appropriatesustainable link remains to be solved. At thesame time, improvements to its current road-based accessibility rom the M8 motorway,as identifed in the 2006 Structure Plan,remain a signifcant requirement as GIA isdependent upon road-based access until suchtime as more sustainable access options aredelivered.

The Main Issues

Issue 1Breaking down distance to economic markets

Figure 16

Special Protection Area

River

Road

Motorway

Rail

Areas sa eguarded or possible uture airport expansion

Land designated or airport purposes in the Finalised Ren rewshire Local Plan

Glasgow International Airportstrategic planning role

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The Main Issues

Issue 1 Breaking down distance to economic markets

Rail

6.5 High Speed Rail (HSR) provides a sustainablealternative to short and medium haul air travel.HSR is developing rapidly across Europe -France, Spain, Italy, Germany, Netherlands,Belgium, Switzerland - linking up partner andcompetitor economies in a more sustainableway and enabling a shi t rom short and mediumhaul air routes with consequent reductions ingreenhouse gas emissions. In comparison, theUK, to date, has minimal investment in HSR and

the time taken by rail rom Glasgow to Londonand Eurotunnel remains uncompetitive with airtravel.

6.6 The UK Government, through its own companyHS2; Network Rail, through its New Lines projectand Greengauge 21, a campaign group, haveall highlighted the need to invest in a UK HSRnetwork. A London - Birmingham HSR link is nowprogrammed to be in place rom 2017. Sequentialonward extensions to northern England andto Scotland, unless action is taken to enablea southward build rom Scotland, are unlikelyto be in place be ore 2025/30. There ore whilstEuropean and southern UK city-region economiesadvance with HSR connectivity, the lack oHSR will urther impact upon Scottish regionaleconomies and in tensi y their peripherality.

6.7 It is recognised in NPF2 that such majorin rastructure programmes have substantiallead-in times. Early decisions / action to acilitatesuch long-term investment are undamental toensuring e fcient delivery o an HSR network andall its necessary components.

6.8 The key requirement there ore is early action toidenti y a central accessible and linked location

or an HSR terminal so as to ensure maximum

economic return rom wider integration o HSRwith existing and city-region planned transportnetworks, so shrinking the distance between theHSR terminal and the city-region as a whole.

Strategic roads

6.9 Previous city-region spatial plans identifed keygaps in the connectivity between the city-regionand national road networks - M74 completionand A8/M8 upgrades. Work is nearing completionin respect o the ormer, whilst the latter remainsa commitment in the STPR. In addition, work isongoing on the M80 completion. When fnallyimplemented, the city-regions road connectivityto the national strategic road network will becomplete although specifc issues such as

capacity on existing motorways may causeaccessibility problems, or example, to GIA.

6


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The Main Issues

Issue 1Breaking down distance to economic markets

Competitiveness and scale othe city-region economy

6.10 Individually, Scottish city-region economies areo limited economic mass in comparison to manycompetitor economies, o which many are alreadycollaborating with neighbouring economies tobuild critical mass and market share. Recognitiono this trend led to the ormation o the Glasgow -Edinburgh Collaboration Initiative (GECI) betweenthe two City Councils and Scottish Enterprise in2008.

6.11 Both Glasgow and Edinburgh have similar scalecity-region economies in Gross Value Added(GVA) terms, so the GECI has the potential tocreate a competitive economic presence inEuropean markets comparable to twice thecity-regions current mass. Currently the detailednature o economic complementarity within GECIhas yet to be understood, or example, in termso economic ows, supply-chain and labourmarkets. Work has been commissioned by theGECI team to clari y this relationship which willthen provide a base or more e ective integrationand an understanding o how spatial planningwithin the respective SDPs or the two city-regions can contribute to that integration.

6.12 Current GECI thinking is ocused upon our key

areas - connectivity, key economic sectors,internationalisation and cities development -www.glasgow-edinburgh.co.uk . Whilst a ocalaspect is the issue o HSR connectivity with theUK, there is the issue o improved rail connectivitybetween the two city regions, an aspect beingaddressed currently through the ScottishGovernments Edinburgh - Glasgow Improvement

Programme highlighted in the STPR.

6.13 The potential, as yet, or spatial planning at theSDP level to underpin and develop urther thecollaboration on key economic sectors, willdepend upon the outcome o the research tobe commissioned as outlined above. It is hopedthat this work will report in time or inclusion, asrelevant, in the SDP at its Proposed Plan stagesin 2011.

Breaking down distance to economic marketsStrategic Planning Proposals

6.14 Sustainable transport solutions in respect o airand rail in rastructure in the city-region remain

undamental to long-term competitiveness. Anintegrated transport solution is necessary with the

ollowing components:

a central location or an HSR terminal;

early action to minimise lead-in times to deliveran HSR connection with the rest o the UK and

secure attendant economic progress; a comprehensive sustainable transport network

which links the HSR terminal to the rest o thecity-region to secure wider economic linkagesand benefts;

within that network, sustainable network links andmotorway capacity solutions at GIA; and

enhanced rail services between Glasgow andEdinburgh to acilitate more e ective collaborationlinked to a uture HSR UK network.

6.15 The role o the SDP in supporting the GECIcollaboration, through the development planningsystem, is as yet not ully analysed and theGCVSDPA awaits the outcome o the economicanalysis commissioned by the GECI be oremaking any appropriate proposals in the SDP.

Issue 1Breaking down distanceto economic markets

In order to improve our wider economiccompetitiveness the scale o the city-regioneconomy compared to some o its equivalentcompetitors and bearing in mind our peripherallocation on the north-west edge o Europe, the

GCVSDPA is proposing to support:

a) continuing and developing air connectivitythrough GIA or long-haul tra fc;

b) the development o HSR to provide moresustainable connectivity as a substitute orshort-haul air travel; and

c) stronger collaboration with Edinburgh city-region to build a joint economic critical massso improving Scotlands ability to compete.

Question 9Do you agree that early planning orHSR, with a terminus in central Glasgow,connected to an integrated sustainablepublic transport network, with e ectivelinks to GIA and to the rest o the city-region, is an essential component or theSDP in the period to 2035?

Question 10Do you agree that action needs to betaken to address accessibility to GIAthrough improved public transportand through improvements to the M8motorway in its vicinity? I so, what typeo action would you suggest?

Question 11Do you agree that in seeking to developthe city-regions economy, improving

its wider competitiveness, strongercollaboration with the Edinburgh city-region is essential?

6Th M i I


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The Main Issues

Issue 2 Supporting a sustainable economy

The city-region economy

6.16 In 2009 and 2010 the GCVSDPA commissionedan analysis o the city-region economy romOx ord Economics (OE) building upon workundertaken or the Joint Structure Plan 2000,Third Alteration 2006. OE were commissionedto orecast the uture o the economy; to take ascenario view o possible changing utures andto identi y key strategic issues in the long-termeconomy. These reports orm BackgroundReport 05 and include detailed sector by sectoremployment projections to 2020, coupled with

headline trends to 2035.6.17 The ollowing paragraphs summarise both the

key outcomes o the OE work or the SDP andthe conclusions o work on the strategic keysectors carried out by Scottish Enterprise. Thislinks to the spatial identifcation o StrategicEconomic Investment Locations (SEILs)which the GCVSDPA proposes as the spatial

ramework or sustainable economic growth,based upon the SEILs role and unction at thestrategic level. More detail on the SEILs is set outin Background Report 07 .

6.18 The base orecast rom OE relates to acontinuation o the ongoing restructuring processin the city-region economy, rom manu acturingtowards the service sector. In comparison to the2000/10 growth in fnancial services, the impacto the recession has been to stabilise that sectoronto a more sustainable diminished growth trendin terms o employment. The key driver o theservice economy in employment and GVA growthterms is now orecast to be the business servicesector, also supported by a ocus on GVA and

productivity growth in fnancial services. The otherkey sector o note is the distribution and logisticssector with employment, GVA and productivitygrowth. A number o sectors are anticipated toshow improved GVA and productivity growth,but with little impact on employment. These keyoutcomes are illustrated on Figures 17 and 18 .The other key trend is the expected impact on thepublic sector o cuts in public expenditure leadingto contraction o that sector. OE concludesthat the base orecast anticipates dampenedgrowth rates with a signifcant time lag, o upto a decade, be ore pre-2008 growth rates areregained.

6.19 OE acknowledges that there is a high levelo uncertainty associated with any economic

orecasts and particularly so during recoveryrom a major recession, as the rate o economic

recovery and uture growth is dependent upona wide range o actors. In order to address thisuncertainty, OE looked at various scenarios whichmight result in di erent growth rates comparedto their base orecast and GVA growth beingassociated with the rebalancing scenario oeconomic diversifcation and growing key sectors

such as green technologies, creative industries,tourism and high-tech manu acturing. However,such a scenario does not achieve, in the short-term, signifcant additional net in-migration, asthe economy absorbs existing labour which raisesemployment rates. Increasing in-migration levels,under this scenario, would be a medium to long-term consequence as existing labour is absorbedand new labour is required which there ore wouldsupport the Planning Scenario in that timescale.

6.20 This scenario correlates strongly with the thrusto the Scottish Governments and ScottishEnterprises emphasis upon growing the economythrough provision or and investment in keysectors and new technologies, or example,green technologies, creative industries, digitalindustries, li e sciences and high-tech, high-valueniche industries.


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Strategic Economic Investment Locations

Figure 19


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6710

12

5

3

1

14

4

9

2

11

13

8

14

14

17

15

18

16

Glasgow Airport ( Inchinnan )

West of ScotlandScience Park

Glasgow Airport ( Linwood )

Peel Park North

Inverclyde Riverside

Robroyston

Clydebank Riverside

Scottish EnterpriseTechnology Park

ClydeGateway

CityScience Gartcosh

PacificQuay

Eurocentral

Glasgow Airport ( Westway )

Hamilton InternationalTechnology Park

Hillington / Renfrew North IFSD

Bishopton

Ravenscraig

Poniel

Sector Spatial requirements

Business andnancial

services

1 2 7 9 10 12 13 14 15 18require quality o ce space in locations with high quality sustainable accessibility to movelabour, eg City Centre, town centres and strategically located business parks with access topublic transport

Distributionand logistics

2 9 14 16 17require large area o land but which generates ew person trips. Emphasis upon high roadHGV volumes with locations near to strategic road network and reight routes and terminals

Sustainableconstruction

is a city-region-wide sector. Speci c sustainable construction projects within SEILsinclude the BRE Innovation Park at Ravenscraig.

Greentechnologies

5 6 8 11 14Research and Development unction requires a central location with access to universitiesand higher education acilities eg City Centre and campus-related locations withsustainable accessibility

Creative anddigital industries

1 3 4 5requires a central sustainable location drawing rom a highly quali ed labour pool withclose proximity to related industries

Li e sciences 1 4 5 6 10 14require a central sustainable location drawing rom a highly quali ed and degree levellabour pool with close connections to universities and higher education acilities drawingupon incubator and research and development unctions eg City Centre and campus-relatedlocations with sustainable accessibility

Tourism is a city-region-wide sector. Speci c tourist attractions within SEILs includeGlasgow Science Centre.


Sa eguarded locations

Opportunity locations


6The Main Issues


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The Main Issues

Issue 2Supporting a sustainable economy


The spatial rameworkor sustainable economic growth

6.21 The distribution o the Strategic EconomicInvestment Locations (SEILs) required tosupport the economy is illustrated in Figure 19 .Each location is identifed in terms o its roleand unction in the uture city-region economy.The selection is based upon each locationscontribution to the Scottish Governments ke

gcvsdpa main issues report

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