GCP International Project OfficeCSIRO Earth Observation Centre

Canberra, AustraliaPrepared by Pep Canadell

January 2004

Outline

• Rationale for the establishment of the GCP• Brief History• Mandate, Science and Implementation• Portfolio of Activities• Products

Rationale for the establishment of the GCP

1. Past and future atmospheric composition

IPCC 2001, GCP 2001

280ppm

180ppm

IPCC 2001

2. Global and annual mean radiative forcing

>60%

3. Multiplicity of research disciplines

Biologicalsequestration

Geologicalsequestration

Energy systems

InstitutionsBio

phys

ical

sys

tem

Man

agem

ent

syst

em

Canadell et al. 2000

4. National and regional research

LBA

CarboEurope

China

Australia

North AmericaCarbon Plan

Siberia

Jp

SA

NZ

Canada

International Geophere-Biosphere Program

IHDP

WCRP

Diversitas Water Food

GlobalCarbonProject

Joint Projects on Global

Sustainability

Earth System Science Partnership

World ClimateResearch Program

International Human Dimensions Program

IGBP

Brief History

• 1997 GCTE (Hal Mooney and Pep Canadell) convene a meeting in Palo Alto, California, to discuss the integration of process level studies, inverse CO2 concentrations approaches, biogeochemical modeling, and flux and remote sensing data for C cycle studies. They recognize the existence of a programmatic gap.

• 1998 IGBP (Berrien Moore and Will Steffen) recognize the need for an IGBP-wide integration effort on the carbon cycle outside of GAIM.

• 1999 IGBP convenes the first IGBP-wide meeting in Isle-sur-la-Sorge, France.

• 1999 Jil Jäger, IHDP executive director, challenge IGBP to make more concrete the collaboration with IGBP and the C cycle is chosen as the first challenge.

• 2000 IHDP and IGBP organize a meeting in Oslo with Oran Young, Arid Underdal, Will Steffen and others to address the challenge.

Brief History - 1

• 2000 Interest on Earth system science is on the rise and becomes clear that WCRP brings another fundamental piece of the carbon-climate-human system that we want to study and manage. The concept of the triple sponsorship for the C project is now a reality.

• 2001 The GCP is presented at the IGBP-IHDP-WCRP Open Science Conference in Amsterdam. Right after, the project is approved by the Chairs and Directors, and the first SSC is assembled. The idea to institutionalize the partnership among the 4 major global environmental change programmes (IGBP, IHDP, WCRP, Diversitas) result in the creation of the Earth System Science Partnership which becomes the official sponsor of the GCP.

• 2001-2003 The GCP develops a science framework and implementation building upon a number of meetings: Isle-sur-la-Sorge-1998, Stockholm-1999, Lisbon-2000, Paris-2000, New Hampshire-2000, San Francisco-2001, Tsukuba-2002, Tsukuba-2003.

• 2003 The GCP Science Framework and Implementation is published.

Brief History - 2

Mandate, Science, and Implementation

Objectives

To develop comprehensive, policy-

relevant understanding of the global carbon cycle, encompassing its natural and human dimensions and their interactions.

Mandate

1. Providing international coordination (gaps, duplications, recommendations)

2. Leveraging resources among countries

3. Increasing comparability and standardization among national progr.

4. Adding the global connectivity and constraints to national and regional programmes

7. Leading a highly interdisciplinary research agenda on the CC

5. Providing capacity building opportunities

6. Working with FCCC and other Conventions as a Research Non Governmental Organization

ObservationsIGOS-P

(IGCO)

ResearchGCP

Links to other C international efforts

AssessmentIPCC

What are the geographical and temporal patterns of carbon sources and sinks?

Science Themes

What are the control and feedback mechanisms – both anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic – that determine the dynamics of the carbon cycle?

What are the likely dynamics of the carbon-climate system into the future and what points of intervention and window exist for human societies to manage this system?

[aCO2] Land use

Theme 1

Theme 2

Theme 3

1. Patterns and Variability

1.1. Enhancing Observations• Coordination & Standardization

1.2. Model-Data Fusion• Model-data fusion techniques

1.3 Carbon Budgets• Methodologies, Sector Analyses

2. Mechanisms & Feedbacks2.1. Integrated C Sink Mechanisms

• Multiple mechanisms and interactions

2.2. Emergent Properties C-Climate• Paleo and Forward

2.3. Emergent Properties C-C-Hum.• New modeling approaches

3. Future & C Management

3.1. Mitigation Options• Control points land, ocean, FF

3.2. C Management & Sustainabil.• Portfolios and sustainable develop.

3.3. Regional/Urban Development• C consequences and Management

GCP Implementation Plan

The Conceptual Framework

Disturbances EcosystemPhysiology

AtmosphericCarbon

TerrestrialCarbon

Ocean/CoastalCarbon

BiologicalPump

ClimateChange

andVariabil.

SolubilityPump

Unperturbed C CyclePerturbed C Cycle

Land UseSystems

IndustryTransportSystems

Ocean-useSystems

FossilCarbon

Perceptionsof humanwelfare

Changes ininstitutions& technol.

Human Response

International Project and Affiliate Offices

CSIRO,Canberra Australia

NIES,TsukubaJapan (April 2004)

USABeijing, China

Affiliate Off.Proposed only

CarboEurope, GermanyGHG CA, Italy

IOC/SCOR-CO2 PanelParis, France

Affiliate Off.

Inter.Proj.Off.

Co-Chairs:

Michael Raupach, AustraliaRobert Dickinson, USAOran Young, USA

Executive Directors:

Pep Canadell, AustraliaPenelope Canan, Japan (startingApril 2004)

Affiliated Offices:

EU-CarboEurope:Annette Freibauer, Germany

SCOR-IOC Panel on Ocean CO2:Maria Hood, France

Michael Apps, CanadaAlain Chedin, FranceCheng-Tung Arthur Chen, China, Taipei

Peter Cox, UKEllen Druffel, USAChristopher Field, USAPatricia Romero Lankao, MexicoLouis Philipe Lebel, ThailandAnnan Partwardhan, IndiaMonika Rhein, GermanyChristopher Sabine, USARiccardo Valentini, ItalyYoshiki Yamagata, Japan

Scientific Steering Committee

Portfolio of Activities

A few examples

Portfolio of Activities: Overview

2002 2003

Annual SSC Meeting

Publication Science Framework

Terrestrial Sinks Wk

Research Institute Data Assimilation

State-of-the-Art Synthesis Wk

Ocean Coordination Wk

2004

Regional T. C Budgets Confer.

Coupling Humans-Biogeochem.

Data Assimilation: Data Wk

Urban Dev.-Carbon Institute

CoP9-Synthesis Book

Land Use-Carbon SI

IOCCP - http://ioc.unesco.org/ioccp/index.htm [with the IOC-SCOR CO2 Panel]

International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project

• 13-15 January 2003, Paris, FranceInternational Workshop on Ocean Carbon Research and Observation Activities. Contact: Maria Hood, Chris Sabine

• 10-14 March 2003, Hazaki Town,Ibaraki, Japan International pCO2 sensor intercomparison experiment. Contact: Y.Nojiri• 14-17 January 2004, Tsukuba, Japan

Workshop on Ocean Surface pCO2, Data Integration and Database Development. Contact:Y.Nojiri

Repeated SectionsVolunteer Observing Ships

• Synthesize large-scale ocean carbon observation activities and plans.• Integration of large-scale carbon studies into international research programs

• Promote acceptance of standardized measurement techniques• Improved accessibility to international carbon data sets

Model-Data Fusion

Research Institutes (2 weeks long)and focused workshops

Research, Tool development, Capacity Building

1. Atmospheric Data-Model Assimilation [Colorado2002]

2. Terrestrial Model-Data Fusion [Sheffield 2003] w/GTOS

3. Synthesis processes intercomparsion [Australia 2004]

4. Ocean Data-Model Assimilation [2005]

5. Earth System Data-Model Assimilation [2006]

http://dataportal.ucar.edu/CDAS/http://www.fao.org/gtos/meetSHE.html

Integrated Terrestrial C Sink MechanismsCa

rbo n

Sto

rag e

in t h

e B i

osph

ere

aCO2 concentrationTemperature

Temperature

Land use

Fire SuppressionNitrogen deposition

Warm ecosystems

Coldecosystems

Soil respiration

CO2 fertilization

N fertilization Fire

Forestconversion

Plant growth

x

x

x

x

With IPCC

GCP 2003

Toward CO2 Stabilization:Issues, Strategies, and Consequences

SCOPE-GCP Synthesis Activity

Book Presentation: COP9-Milan, Dec03Publication: February 2004

Integrated Synthesis

1. current status and past trends of the carbon cycle; 2. vulnerabilities in the carbon cycle in the 21st Century; 3. scenarios, targets, gaps and costs4. a portfolio of carbon management options;

5. CO2 stabilization pathways and sustainable Earth System

Topics:

Vulnerability of carbon pools in the earth system

Grubber et al. 2004 (from SCOPE-GCP rapid assessment)

• Compile a catalogue of vulnerable C pools and their global distribution.• Quantify the extent of these vulnerable pools and their C content.• Assess the processes affecting the balance and release of C (incl. “thresholds)• Analyze the impacts of C release from vulnerable pools on a[CO2] and climate

NCEAS proposal 2004, submitted

C Consequences of Regional Development Pathways

Advanced Institute on Urbanization, Emission, and

the Global Carbon CycleSTART-Packard FoundationNCAR, Boulder, Colorado,

4 – 22 August 2003

Integrating carbon management into development strategies of cities

Establishing a network of regional case studies• Asia Pacific (funded)

• Central-South America (funded)

Sour

ce: D

iane

Pat

aki

Workshop Series (2004 – 2007):

Coupling the human dimensions to the climate-carbon system

In preparation

Title: Coupling biophysical and human dimensions of the carbon cycle.

Goal: To identify and develop key methods, models, process knowledge and interactions necessary to treat the global carbon cycle as a coupled carbon-climate-human system.

Topics:• Dynamical-system and game-theory

approaches.• Models of Intermediate Complexity• Integrative Assessment Models• Institutional dimensions• Technological opportunities and

constraints• Conceptual Frameworks• Scenarios-based approaches

Products

Synthesis Products

Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann P

(eds.) (2004) Quantifying Terrestrial

Carbon Sinks. Climatic Change.

Special Issue (in press)

Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann P

(eds.) (2004) Quantifying Terrestrial

Carbon Sinks. Climatic Change.

Special Issue (in press)

Field C, Raupach M (eds.) (2004) The

Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans,

Climate and the Natural World. Island Press,

Washington D.C. (in press)

Field C, Raupach M (eds.) (2004) The

Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Humans,

Climate and the Natural World. Island Press,

Washington D.C. (in press)

Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I (eds.) (2002)

Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian

Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45

Supp.: 1-141.

Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I (eds.) (2002)

Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian

Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45

Supp.: 1-141.

GCP (2003) Science framework and implementation.

Canadell J, DickinsonR, Hibbart K, Young O,

Raupach M (eds.).ESSP Rept. No. 1; GCP Report No. 1,

Canberra, p.69

GCP (2003) Science framework and implementation.

Canadell J, DickinsonR, Hibbart K, Young O,

Raupach M (eds.).ESSP Rept. No. 1; GCP Report No. 1,

Canberra, p.69

All publications• Canadell J, Ciais P, Cox P, Heimann M (2003) Quantifying terrestrial carbon sinks. Special issue in Climatic Change (in

preparation)• Field C, Raupach M, editors (2003) Towards CO2 stabilization: Issues, Strategies, and Consequences, Field C, Raupach M (Eds.). Island

Press, Washington D.C. (in press)• Global Carbon Project (2003). The GCP Science framework and Implementation. Canadell JG, Dickson R, Raupach M,

Young O (Eds). Earth Science System, Partnership (ESS) Report Series No.1, GCP Report Series No 1, Canberra, pp. 69• Sabine C, Hood M (2003) Ocean carbon scientists organize to acheive better coordination, cooperation . EOS 84: 218-220• Canadell J, Zhou G, Noble I, editors (2002)

Land use/cover change effects on terrestrial carbon cycle in the Asian Pacific region. Science in China. Special Issue 45 Supp.: 1-141.

• Hibbard K, Steffen W, Benedict S, Busalachi T, Canadell J, Dickinson R, Raupach M, Smith B, Tilbrook B, Velling P, Young O (2001) The carbon challenge. An IGBP-IHDP-WCRP project. Stockholm.

 Pre-project products• Schimel DS, House JI, Hibbard KA, Bousquet P, Ciais P, Peylin P, Braswell BH, Apps MA, Baker D, Bondeau A, Canadell

J, Churkina G, Cramer W, Denning AS, Field CB, Friedlingstein P, Goodale C, Heimann M, Houghton RA, Melillo JM, Moore III B, Murdiyarso D, Noble I, Pacala SW, Prentice IC, Raupach MR, Rayner PJ, Scholes RJ, Steffen WL, Wirth C (2001) Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Nature 414: 169-172.

• Gupta J, Lebel L, Velling P, Young O, IHDP Secretariat (2001) IHDP Global Carbon cycle research. Bonn, IHDP.• Falkowski P, RJ Scholes, E. Boyle, J. Canadell, D. Canfield, J. Elser, N. Gruber, K. Hibbard, P. Högberg, S. Linder, F.T.

Mackenzie, B. Moore III, T. Pederson, Y. Rosenthal, S. Seitzinger, V. Smetacek, W. Steffen [The IGBP Carbon Working Group] (2000) The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of our Knowledge of Earth as a System. Science 290: 291-296.

• Canadell J.G, Mooney H.A., Baldocchi D.D., Berry J.A., Ehleringer J.R., Field C.B., Gower S.T., Hollinger D.Y., Hunt J.E., Jackson R.B., Running S.W., Shaver G.R., Steffen W., Trumbore S.E., Valentini R., Bond B.Y. (2000). Carbon Metabolism of the Terrestrial Biosphere: a multi-technique approach for improved understanding. Ecosystems 3: 115-130.

• Steffen, W, Noble, I, Canadell, J, Apps, M, Schulze, E-D, Jarvis, PG, Baldocchi, D, Ciais, P, Cramer, W, Ehleringer, J, Farquhar, G, Field, CB, Ghazi, A, Gifford, R, Heimann, M, Houghton, R, Kabat, P, Körner, C, Lambin, E, Linder, S, Mooney, HA, Murdiyarso, D, Post, WM, Prentice, IC, Raupach, MR, Schimel, DS, Shvidenko, A and Valentini, R (1998) The terrestrial carbon cycle: Implications for the Kyoto protocol. Science 280: 1393-1394.

www.globalcarbonproject.org