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Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” R E S E A R C H
GCC Corporate Earnings – Q2 2012 Saudi, Kuwait and Bahrain decelerate
Report Highlights
2Q12 saw a decline of 1% YoY in net earnings of GCC corporations. The decline was led by Bahrain and Kuwait companies whose aggregate net
incomes dropped 29% and 27% YoY. Saudi Arabian firms too witnessed a
decline in profitability over the same period, albeit lower at 6%. Oman, UAE and Qatar firms‟ net income grew 56%, 12% and 8% respectively. Total GCC
earnings came in at USD 13.8bn, down 6% from 1Q2012.
Figure: 1 – Earnings Trend – GCC – 2Q12 (USD mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
YoY (2Q12 vs. 2Q11) decline of 1%
QoQ (2Q12 vs. 1Q12) decline of 6%
Kuwait, Bahrain and Saudi suffered considerable declines in net
earnings
Banks accounting for 40% of GCC earnings recorded a 1% increase
in profits YoY and a 3% decline over the quarter
Oman‟s 2Q12 earnings were the highest in the last seven quarters at
USD 469mn
Telecom recorded a growth of 8% YoY, staying close to the 1Q12 figure at USD 2.1bn
We forecast 8% YoY growth in GCC corporate earnings in 2012 at USD 56.5bn
September 2012
Research Highlights:
Provides a review of corporate
earnings across the GCC
Markaz Research is available on:
Bloomberg - Type “MRKZ”
<Go> Thomson Research,
Reuters Knowledge Nooz
Zawya Investor ISI Emerging markets
Capital IQ
FactSet Research Connect TheMarkets.com
M.R. Raghu CFA, FRM
Head of Research +965 2224 8280
Deivanai Arunachalam
Analyst +965 2224 8000 ext. 4606
Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K. “Markaz”
P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, Kuwait
Tel: +965 2224 8000 Fax: +965 2242 5828
markaz.com
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MARKAZ RESEARCH September 2012
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”
2
2Q12 Earnings
Saudi Arabia Earnings of Saudi Arabian companies totaled USD 6.5bn, a 6% decrease YoY.
SABIC, which reported USD 1.4bn in 2Q profits, saw its bottom-line decline 35% YoY due to softening of global petrochemical prices and higher raw
materials costs. Saudi Banks earnings increased 11% YoY while it fell 1% over
1Q12 to USD 2.0bn. Al Rajhi Bank reported a 14% YoY growth in net income to USD 558mn, on account of higher operating income. Telecom sector‟s
earnings grew 18% YoY to USD 891mn as Etihad Etisalat‟s earnings rose 22% to USD 379mn due to higher revenue from data services. Saudi Telecom
posted a 7% growth in earnings YoY at USD 642mn
Kuwait
Kuwait corporate earnings dropped 27% YoY to USD 811mn. Kuwait saw its earnings recover in the first quarter of 2012 after three consecutive quarters
of decline. However Kuwait corporations haven‟t been able to sustain the recovery in 2Q12. Bank earnings declined 25% over the year and 32% over
1Q12 to USD 380mn. National Bank of Kuwait‟s earnings dropped 41% to USD 142mn owing to a USD 96.4mn provision it took due to the deteriorating
operating environment. Telecom companies reported a bottom-line of USD
310mn (-20% YoY, -11% QoQ). Wataniya‟s profits fell almost 50% YoY as a result of competitive pressures in the country and negative exchange rate
movements in Algeria. Zain earnings dropped 1% over the year, settling at USD 254mn. Real Estate sector, whose profits grew 39% YoY dropped 62%
over the quarter to USD 34mn.
UAE
During 2Q12, UAE companies posted earnings of USD 3.0bn, a 12% growth YoY, and a 4% decline over the quarter. Banking sector, which accounts for
54% of UAE profits, declined 7% YoY, but grew 2% over the quarter to USD 1.6bn. Emirates NBD which had recovered from its lackluster performance
during 1Q12 registered a 13% YoY fall in net earnings this quarter. The
bank‟s 1H12 profits settled 40% lower than that of 1H11 due to gain on the sale of a stake in Network International last year. NBAD reported 2% YoY
growth in net income to USD 285mn primarily due to lower provisioning. Telecom earnings grew 22% YoY and 2% QoQ to USD 597mn. Etisalat
reported a net profit of USD 508mn, 17% growth on a YoY basis buoyed by
robust international operations. Real estate continued its recovery with profits of USD 355mn (1Q12: USD 342mn, 2Q11: USD 5mn). While Emaar witnessed
a 146% YoY growth in earnings to USD 167mn driven by increase in contribution of subsidiaries, Aldar‟s 228% increase in profits was led by better
occupancy. Table 1: Earnings Growth – Sectoral Trend (USD mn)
Sector 2Q11 1Q12 2Q12 YoY QoQ
Banks 5,455 5,705 5,518 1% -3%
Telecommunications 1,943 2,095 2,100 8% 0%
Commodities 3,648 3,139 2,570 -30% -18%
Financial Services 47 536 127 169% -76%
Real Estate 338 821 772 129% -6%
Construction Related 717 780 688 -4% -12%
Conglomerates 400 425 342 -14% -19%
Others 1,448 1,118 1,688 17% 51%
Total 13,996 14,619 13,806 -1% -6%
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
KSA earnings decline 6%
YoY in 2Q12 to USD 6.5bn
Kuwait earnings drop
27% YoY to USD 811mn, led by the banking sector
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MARKAZ RESEARCH September 2012
Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz”
3
Qatar
Qatar‟s earnings continued to grow at a stable rate of 8% YoY and 5% over
the quarter to USD 2.6bn. Industries Qatar‟s earnings sustained recovery this quarter with a 3% growth over the year to USD 585mn. Bank earnings
continue to benefit from higher government spending with growth of 9% YoY and 3% sequentially to USD 1.14bn. Qatar National Bank‟s net income (USD
580mn) grew 17% YoY – the slowest bottom-line growth in the last 2 years.
Oman
Oman‟s corporate earnings grew 56% YoY and 7% over the previous quarter to USD 469mn. Banking sector profits grew to USD 173mn (+114% YoY,
+5% QoQ). Bank Muscat‟s net income of USD 91mn was 19% higher on a
YoY basis.
Bahrain Bahrain‟s corporate profits dropped 29% YoY in 2Q12 to USD 370mn. The
decline amounted to 11% on a sequential basis. Banking profits plunged 28% YoY and fell nearly 25% sequentially to USD 186mn. The drastic decline in
banking income was led by Bahrain Islamic Bank (a loss of USD 44mn) and a
25% and 13% decline in earnings of Arab Banking Corpn and United Gulf Bank respectively. Higher gas costs and lower London Metal Exchange levels
impacted Aluminium Bahrain‟s bottom-line (-49% YoY), while Bahrain Telecom‟s net profit was affected by lack of growth and stiff competition. The
company‟s 2Q profit was USD 49mn (-13% YoY).
Looking Ahead
Based on the current trend, we expect a muted earnings growth of 8% during the year 2012. We expect Saudi Arabia to clock a 9% growth to USD 27b
while UAE is expected to post a growth of 11% to USD 10.8 b. Kuwait earnings is expected to contract by 5% to USD 3.9b. Banks (38%),
Commodities (23%) and Telecom(14%) account for over 75% of earnings.
We expect Banks to post a growth of 8% to USD 21.5b, Commodities and Telecom are likely to contract by 1% each. Overall, stock markets should look
for triggers other than earnings to support it in 2012.
Figure: 2 – Earnings Trend – GCC – Long-Term (USD mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
48,921
64,381
34,769 34,720
41,581
52,252 56,499
6%
32%
-46%
0%
20% 26%
8%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 E
Qatar sustains stability; corporate earnings grew
8% YoY to USD 2.6bn
Bahrain’s corporate
profits drop 29% YoY to
USD 370mn led by banks again
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GCC Corporate Earnings – 2Q12
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2
GCC Market Cap Coverage at 98%
Country
Total market cap (USD Bn)
% Coverage
in terms of market cap
Total Number of Companies
Coverage based on no. of
companies
Saudi Arabia 352 100% 151 99%
Kuwait 97 95% 205 82%
U.A.E. 104 91% 110 95%
Qatar 123 100% 41 98%
Oman 17 98% 115 93%
Bahrain 17 95% 42 93%
GCC Total 710 98% 664 92%
• Market Capitalization-based coverage stood at 98% for all GCC countries.
• Qatar & Saudi Arabia topped with almost 100% coverage, followed by Oman at 98%.
• Earnings visibility (by number of companies) for the GCC region stood at 92% for 2Q12.
• KSA’s coverage stood at 99% and Qatar’s at 98%. Kuwait’s coverage was the lowest at 82%.
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
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3
GCC Earnings dip in 2Q12
• Second quarter corporate earnings in the GCC dropped 1% YoY and 6% QoQ to USD 13.8bn.
• The fall in YoY earnings was led by Bahrain (-29%), Kuwait (-27%) and Saudi Arabia (-6%).
• In addition to these three countries, UAE too faced a decline in earnings on a QoQ basis
GCC Corporate Earnings (USD Mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
GCC -1 -6
YoY
(%)
-29
QoQ
(%)
-56
8
12
-27
-6
-11
7
5
-4
-45
-2
13,892 13,996 13,507
9,810
14,619 13,806
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Bahrain
Oman
Qatar
UAE
Kuwait
Saudi Arabia
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4
Commodities drive the decline
• In 2Q12, Banking sector earnings grew 1% YoY and declined 3% over the quarter, settling at USD 5.5bn. The real estate sector earnings declined 6% over 1Q12 reaching USD 772mn, a 129% increase YoY, largely due to a base effect.
• After a dismal performance in 2011, Telecom sector earnings grew 8% over the year, while it stayed flat on a QoQ basis at USD 2.1bn.
• The commodities sector that drove earnings in 1Q12 saw a dip of 30% on a YoY basis and an 18% decline over the last quarter
Sectoral Earnings Trend (USD Mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
8
-18
YoY
(%)
17
QoQ
(%)
-14
-4
129
169
-30
51
-19
-12
-6
-76
0
1 -3
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Top 10 companies grow 3% over 1Q12
5
Top 10 GCC companies by 2Q12 earnings (Mn USD)
Company Name Country Sector 2Q11 1Q12 2Q12 QoQ(%) YoY (%)
Saudi Basic Industries Corp Saudi Arabia Commodities 2,160 1,939 1,414 -27% -35%
Saudi Telecom Co Saudi Arabia Telecom 602 672 642 -5% 7%
Industries Qatar QSC Qatar Commodities 570 524 585 12% 3%
Qatar National Bank SAQ Qatar Banking 497 551 580 5% 17%
Al Rajhi Banking and Invt Corp Saudi Arabia Banking 492 536 558 4% 14%
Emirates Telecom Corp UAE Telecom 434 492 508 3% 17%
Etihad Etisalat Company Saudi Arabia Telecom 310 322 379 18% 22%
Saudi Electricity Co Saudi Arabia Others 356 -156 363 NM 2%
Samba Financial Group Saudi Arabia Banking 294 305 309 1% 5%
National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC UAE Banking 279 283 285 1% 2%
Total 5,994 5,469 5,622 3% -6%
GCC earnings 13,996 14,619 13,806 -6% -1%
6 of the top 10 GCC companies are Saudi-based, 2 hail from UAE and 2 from Qatar.
The composition of the top 10 is inclined towards banking, telecom and commodities firms
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Saudi Arabia – 2Q12
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7
Saudi banks hold ground; commodities slide
Quarterly Earnings Trend (USD Mn) Earnings Growth – YoY (%)
Saudi Arabia’s earnings fell 6% YoY and 2% over the quarter to USD 6.5bn as a result of decline in earnings of commodities firms.
Banking and telecom sectors performed well on a YoY basis registering increases in net income of 11% and 18% respectively.
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
5,813
6,956 6,870
5,226
6,676 6,542
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
23%
27%
22%
2%
15%
-6%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
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8
Alinma and Saudi Hollandi earnings surge
Saudi banks’ performance was led by Alinma and Saudi Hollandi Bank whose net incomes surged 90% and 24% YoY in 1H12. Al Rajhi and Riyad Bank witnessed YoY growth of 14% and 9% in 2Q12 earnings
Earnings of players in the commodity sector were depleted in 2Q12: Sahara Petrochemicals, Advanced Petrochemicals and SABIC posted declines in profits of 74%, 65% and 35% respectively.
Quarterly Sectoral Earnings Trend (USD Mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
1,339 1,399 1,668 1,821 1,731 1,610 2,043 2,019
1,025 798 501 753 576 920
853 891
1,776 2,108 2,650
2,845 2,898
1,972
2,531 1,858
5,646
5,111
5,813
6,956 6,870
5,226
6,676 6,542
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Others
Conglomerates
Construction Related
Real Estate
Financial Services
Commodities
Telecommunications
Banks
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9
Top companies – Sector – Growth Rate – 2Q12
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
Top Companies – Saudi Arabia – Commodities
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Saudi Basic Industries Corp 73,196 2,160 1,414 -35%
Saudi Arabian Fertilizers Co 11,399 211 209 -1%
Saudi Kayan Petrochemical Co 5,960 -4 -88 NM
Yanbu National Petrochemical Co 6,570 257 173 -33%
Saudi Arabian Mining Co 7,498 17 34 105%
Saudi Industrial Investment Group 2,448 39 27 -31%
Saudi International Petrochemical Co 1,765 44 36 -18%
Sahara Petrochemical Co 1,574 56 14 -74%
Advanced Petrochemical Co 1,047 42 14 -65%
Total 111,457 2,821 1,835 -35%
Top Companies – Saudi Arabia – Conglomerates
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Kingdom Holding Co 11,809 44 48 9%
National Industrialization Co 5,512 158 155 -2%
Total 17,320 202 202 0%
Top Companies – Saudi Arabia – Telecom
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Saudi Telecom Co 21,012 602 642 7%
Etihad Etisalat Company 11,666 310 379 22%
Saudi Mobile Telecommunications Co 2,912 -120 -105 NM
Total 35,590 793 916 16%
Top Companies – Saudi Arabia – Banking
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Al Rajhi Bank 29,398 492 558 14%
Samba Financial Group 10,751 294 309 5%
Riyad Bank 9,300 223 244 9%
Banque Saudi Fransi 8,027 206 202 -2%
Saudi British Bank 8,640 227 244 7%
Arab National Bank 5,893 186 191 3%
Alinma Bank 4,880 29 48 68%
Saudi Investment Bank 2,303 56 59 7%
Saudi Hollandi Bank 2,805 70 89 26%
Total 81,996 1,782 1,944 9%
Top Companies – Saudi Arabia – Others
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Saudi Electricity Co 14,332 356 363 2%
Almarai Trading Co Ltd 6,880 93 101 9%
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Kuwait – 2Q12
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11
Kuwait banks and telecom companies disappoint
Quarterly Earnings Trend (USD Mn) Earnings Growth – YoY (%)
Kuwait’s financial services sector ended in a loss of USD 39mn in 2Q12 while conglomerates closed with a loss of USD 67mn.
Among the profitable sectors too, most experienced a lull. Banking and telecom sector earnings dropped 25% and 20% respectively over the year.
The real estate sector posted a growth of 39% YoY.
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
2,009
1,112 978
-118
1,473
811
-500
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
80%
-65%
-9%
0%
-27%
-27%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
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12
NBK, Gulf Bank and KIB deliver lackluster numbers
In 2Q12, Kuwait Banks saw their bottom-line come in at USD 380mn (-25% YoY, -32% QoQ). All major banks witnessed a net income decrease on YoY basis, for the second consecutive quarter.
National Bank of Kuwait took a severe beating, its net income declining 41% YoY; Gulf Bank and Kuwait International Bank’s incomes plunged 38% and 22% respectively.
Global Investment House and KAMCO experienced 2Q12 losses of USD 34mn and USD 12mn respectively. Wataniya’s profits fell 50% to USD 68mn, while Zain’s dropped 1% to USD 254mn.
Quarterly Sectoral Earnings Trend (USD Mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
595 524 565 505 571 405 555 380
345 383
1,277
388 301 367
351 310
1,080
-628
2,009
1,112
978
-118
1,473
811
-2,000
-1,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Others Conglomerates
Construction Related Real Estate
Financial Services Commodities
Telecommunications Banks
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13
Top companies – Sector – Growth Rate – 2Q12
Note: Companies that have not declared their 2Q12 results on the date of this report are marked as NA in the 2Q12 and 2Q11 columns.
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
Top Companies – Kuwait – Banking
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
National Bank of Kuwait 16,090 240 142 -41%
Kuwait Finance House 7,588 83 79 -5%
Gulf Bank 4,100 31 19 -38%
Commercial Bank of Kuwait 3,551 0 0 -7%
Boubyan Bank 3,880 8 10 17%
Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait 3,250 44 35 -21%
Burqan Bank 2,378 49 49 -1%
Ahli United Bank 3,812 39 38 -2%
Kuwait International Bank 947 9 7 -22%
Total 45,595 505 380 -25%
Top Companies – Kuwait – Financial Services
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Kuwait Projects Co Holding 1,555 31 31 -1%
National Investments Co 326 18 -3 NM
ALAFCO Aviation Lease & Finance Co 781 13 12 -7%
Commercial Facilities Co 538 9 18 93%
International Finance Co 239 -9 0 NM
KIPCO Asset Management Co 219 1 -12 NM
Kuwait Financial Centre 217 5 -6 NM
Global Investment House 228 -61 -34 NM
Total 4,102 7 6 -19%
Top Companies – Kuwait – Telecom
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Mobile Telecommunications Co 11,425 256 254 -1%
National Mobile Telecom 3,969 136 68 -50%
Total 15,394 393 322 -18%
Top Companies – Kuwait – Others
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Kuwait Food Company Americana 1,842 49 32 -35%
Mabanee Co 2,363 21 29 37%
Agility Public Warehousing Co 1,443 29 28 -2%
National Industries Group Holding 955 25 4 -85%
Gulf Cable and Electrical Industries 857 76 4 -95%
Total 7,458 199 97 -51%
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United Arab Emirates – 2Q12
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15
UAE earnings fairly stable
Quarterly Earnings Trend (USD Mn) Earnings Growth – YoY (%)
UAE 2Q12 corporate profits grew 12% YoY; registered a 4% decline over the quarter settling at USD 3bn.
Banking continued to dominate corporate profits with more than half the country’s earnings coming from that sector. Earnings deteriorated 7% YoY, while a 2% increase over the quarter was recorded.
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
2,836 2,693
2,050
1,416
3,130 3,009
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
1%
37%
-4%
NM
10%
12%
-20% 0% 20% 40%
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
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16
Real Estate sustains its recovery
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank’s 2Q12 net income dropped 45%, ENBD’s by 13% and Commercial Bank of Dubai’s by 7% over the year.
The Telecom sector posted a strong 22% YoY growth at USD 597mn; a 2% increase over the quarter. Emirates Integrated Telecom (Du) posted a 57% YoY rise in net profit taking the figure to USD 89mn, while ETISALAT’s earnings rose 17% during the same period.
The Real Estate sector sustained its recovery with 2Q12 profits of USD 355mn; a QoQ increase of 4%.
Quarterly Sectoral Earnings Trend (USD Mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
1,304 903
1,640 1,740 1,354
960 1,588 1,618
518 800
551 490 536
312
583 597
2,126 -2,287
2,836 2,693
2,050 1,416
3,130 3,009
-5,000
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Others Conglomerates
Construction Related Real Estate
Financial Services Commodities
Telecommunications Banks
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17
Top companies – Sector – Growth Rate – 2Q12
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
Top Companies – United Arab Emirates – Banking
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
National Bank of Abu Dhabi 8,714 279 285 2%
First Gulf Bank 6,723 242 277 14%
Emirates NBD Bank 4,101 203 176 -13%
Mashreqbank 2,993 78 87 12%
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank 5,043 363 200 -45%
Dubai Islamic Bank 1,933 90 84 -6%
Union National Bank 1,889 113 124 10%
Commercial Bank of Dubai 1,554 71 66 -7%
National Bank of Fujairah 1,587 20 19 -5%
United Arab Bank 841 20 32 64%
Total 35,380 1,480 1,351 -9%
Top Companies – United Arab Emirates – Real Estate
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Emaar Properties 4,727 68 167 146%
Aldar Properties 1,235 35 114 228%
Sorouh Real Estate Co 729 30 40 34%
Deyaar Development 467 5 5 3%
Union Properties 371 -142 23 NM
Total 7,529 -4 349 NM
Top Companies – United Arab Emirates – Telecom
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Emirates Telecom. Corp 19,741 434 508 17%
Emirates Integrated Telecom. 3,809 56 89 57%
Total 23,550 490 597 22%
Top Companies – United Arab Emirates – Construction Related
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Arkan Building Materials Co 372 3 5 60%
Arabtec Holding 1,210 8 -3 NM
National Marine Dredging 589 29 26 -12%
Drake and Scull International 493 14 7 -49%
Total 2,664 54 35 -36%
Top Companies – United Arab Emirates – Others
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Dubai Financial Market 2,065 4 3 -31%
Abu Dhabi National Energy 2,048 118 122 3%
Dana Gas Co 665 34 49 46%
Total 4,778 156 174 11%
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Qatar – 2Q12
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19
Qatar growth firms up
Quarterly Earnings Trend (USD Mn) Earnings Growth –YoY (%)
Qatar 2Q12 earnings grew 8% YoY and 5% over the quarter stabilizing at USD 2.6bn.
Earnings of the commodities sector (Industries Qatar) grew 3% YoY and 12% over the quarter reaching USD 585mn.
The real estate sector witnessed a 35% growth in net income YoY and a 14% growth over the quarter. Financial services and construction related sectors posted YoY net income growth of 18% each, while income decline on a QoQ basis.
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
2,445 2,413
2,738
2,790
2,485
2,605
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
2,700
2,800
2,900
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
14%
23%
35%
50%
2%
8%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
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20
Banking continues its stable growth while telecom suffers
Qatar banks registered a 9% increase in 2Q12 net income over the year even as they maintained 3% increase over the quarter. While Qatar National Bank and Commercial Bank of Qatar held up the sector’s results, Qatar Islamic Bank was a dampener recording a 9% YoY decline in second quarter earnings.
The telecom sector failed to impress with net income falling 6% in 2Q12 as compared to 2Q11, while the QoQ fall was 11%. Qatar Telecom’s quarterly earnings plunged 11% YoY to USD 176mn whereas Vodafone Qatar incurred a loss of USD 32mn.
Quarterly Sectoral Earnings Trend (USD Mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
917 848 978 1,049 1,069 1,023 1,105 1,142
391 390
575 570 570 463
524 585 132 212
211 146 479 691 172
196 2,030 1,859
2,445 2,413
2,738 2,790
2,485 2,605
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Others Conglomerates
Construction Related Real Estate
Financial Services Commodities
Telecommunications Banks
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21
Top companies – Sector – Growth Rate –2Q12
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
Top Companies – Qatar – Banking
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Qatar National Bank 25,560 497 580 17%
Commercial Bank of Qatar 4,750 140 150 7%
Qatar Islamic Bank 4,952 105 96 -9%
Masraf Al Rayan 5,562 100 102 2%
Doha Bank 3,122 93 96 3%
Qatar International Islamic Bank 2,025 45 45 1%
Al Khalij Commercial Bank 1,661 36 38 8%
Ahli Bank 1,817 33 34 1%
Total 49,449 1,049 1,142 9%
Top Companies – Qatar – Commodities
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Industries Qatar 19,215 570 585 3%
Total 19,215 570 585 3%
Top Companies – Qatar – Real Estate Operations
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Ezdan Real Estate Company 14,512 18 54 196%
Barwa Real Estate Company 2,859 56 83 48%
United Development Company 1,639 56 44 -22%
Total 19,010 131 181 39%
Top Companies – Qatar – Telecom
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Qatar Telecom(Q Tel) 9,281 198 176 -11%
Vodafone Qatar 2,104 -45 -32 NM
Total 11,385 153 144 -6%
Top Companies – Qatar – Others
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Qatar Electricity & Water Co 3,653 121 96 -21%
Aamal Co 2,381 14 14 0%
Qatar Gas Transport Co Ltd 2,371 53 56 6%
Qatar Fuel 3,312 91 88 -3%
Qatar Navigation 1,850 43 43 1%
Total 13,566 322 297 -8%
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Oman – 2Q12
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23
Oman delivers steady earnings
Quarterly Earnings Trend (USD Mn) Earnings Growth –YoY (%)
Oman’s corporate earnings grew an impressive 56% over the year, and 7% QoQ to USD 469mn, the highest in the last 8 quarters.
Banks and telecom held their positions recording increases in earnings of 5% each on a QoQ basis.
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
370
300
396
334
439
469
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
-22%
-45%
-1%
10%
19%
56%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
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24
Banking contributes to majority of incremental growth Quarterly Sectoral Earnings Trend (USD Mn)
Most banks showed positive earnings growth in 2Q12. Bank Muscat’s net profit was up 19% YoY in 2Q at USD 91mn while Bank Dhofar’s first quarter earnings came in at USD 27mn.
Financial services delivered a decent set of numbers with bottom-line staying close to 1Q12 figure at USD 46mn, increasing more than 6 times over the 2Q11 number.
Telecom earnings rose 7% YoY (QoQ: 5%) to USD 109mn; Oman Telecom reported a 11% YoY increase in net income to USD 83mn.
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
119 126 138
81
154 140 165 173
92
19
99
101
106 107
103 109 53
39
17
7
27 13
47 46
41
27
35
32
24
33
45 39
401
305
370
300
396
334
439 469
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Others Conglomerates Construction Related Real Estate
Financial Services Commodities Telecommunications Banks
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25
Top companies – Sector – Growth Rate – 2Q12
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
Top Companies – Oman – Construction Related
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Raysut Cement Co 698 10 18 75%
Oman Cement Co 553 8 10 22%
Galfar Engineering & Contracting 235 3 4 14%
Oman Cables Industry 191 5 8 58%
Total 1,676 27 40 48%
Top Companies – Oman – Telecom
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Oman Telecommunications Company 2,601 75 83 11%
Omani Qatari Telecommunications 861 26 25 -3%
Total 3,462 101 109 7%
Top Companies – Oman – Real Estate Operations
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Sahara Hospitality Company 37 1 1 21%
Total 37 1 1 21%
Top Companies – Oman – Banking
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Bank Muscat 2,763 76 91 19%
Bank Dhofar 1,195 -39 27 NM
National Bank of Oman 838 24 27 10%
Ahli Bank 510 9 15 64%
Bank Sohar 384 10 13 30%
Total 5,689 81 173 114%
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Bahrain – 2Q12
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27
Bahrain corporate earnings falter
Quarterly Earnings Trend (USD Mn) Earnings Growth –YoY (%)
Bahrain’s corporate profits plunged in 2Q12, a 29% YoY fall spurred largely by the commodities and banking sectors. The QoQ decline in Bahrain net income was 11%.
Bahrain Islamic Bank ended in a loss of USD 44mn, while Arab Banking Corp and United Gulf Bank saw their earnings deplete on a YoY basis by 25% and 13% respectively.
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
419
521
475
162
416
370
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
0%
7%
332%
N.M.
0%
-29%
-100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400%
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
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28
Dismal performance from Aluminium Bahrain
Lower London Metal Exchange levels and higher gas costs impacted Aluminium Bahrain’s bottom-line. The company’s net income (USD 94mn) was 49% lower than 2Q11.
Bahrain Telecom’s net profit of USD 49mn declined 13% over the year, impacted by lack of growth and stiff competition.
Quarterly Sectoral Earnings Trend (USD Mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
179
-108
232 260 197
35
248 186
51
55
46 56
47
62
43
49
-51
111
88
185
214
76
57 94 110
-58
419
521 475
162
416 370
-300
-200
-100
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012
Others Conglomerates
Construction Related Real Estate
Financial Services Commodities
Telecommunications Banks
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29
Top companies – Sector – Growth Rate – 2Q12
Source: Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
Top Companies – Bahrain – Banking
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Ahli United Bank 3,035 84 88 4%
Arab Banking Corporation 1,431 68 51 -25%
National Bank of Bahrain 1,248 28 29 5%
Al Baraka Banking Group 959 34 38 13%
BBK 903 30 30 -1%
United Gulf Bank 518 8 7 -13%
Ithmaar Bank 322 1 1 61%
Al Salam Bank Bahrain 163 4 -7 NM
Bahrain Islamic Bank 237 4 -44 NM
Khaleeji Commercial Bank 104 1 - -100%
TAIB Bank 307 -3 -8 NM
Total 9,227 260 186 -28%
Top Companies – Bahrain – Telecom
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Bahrain Telecommunications Co. 1,757 56 49 -13%
Total 1,757 56 49 -13%
Top Companies – Bahrain – Financial Services
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Gulf Finance House 285 -11 5 NM
Securities and Investment Co 350 3 -1 NM
Esterad Investment Co 60 -8 0 NM
Bahrain Middle East Bank 42 1 0 -87%
Total 1,375 -15 4 NM
Top Companies – Bahrain – Others
Company Name Market Cap (USD mn) 2Q11 2Q12 Growth
Aluminium Bahrain 2,034 185 94 -49%
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30
Annual Results Saudi Earnings (USD Mn)
Kuwait Earnings (USD Mn)
GCC Earnings (USD Mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
21,445 23,044
12,472
15,643
20,844
24,837 27,187
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
8,983
15,802
-1,003 -76
4,906 4,147 3,940
-2,000
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
48,921
64,381
34,769 34,720
41,581
52,252 56,499
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
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31
Annual Results
Oman Earnings (USD Mn) Bahrain Earnings (USD Mn)
UAE Earnings (USD Mn) Qatar Earnings (USD Mn)
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Markaz Research
10,815
15,039
12,758
9,064
4,961
9,756 10,828
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
4,733
6,482 7,507
9,482
8,121
10,367 11,233
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 E
1,036
1,569
1,255
1,463
1,690
1,405
1,650
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
1,909
2,445
1,781
-856
1,058
1,741 1,660
-1,500
-1,000
-500
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
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MARKAZ RESEARCH September 2012
Disclaimer This report has been prepared and issued by Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K (Markaz), which is regulated by the Capital Markets Authority and the Central Bank of Kuwait. The report is owned by Markaz and is privileged and proprietary and is subject to copyrights. Sale of any copies of this report is strictly prohibited. This report cannot be quoted without the prior written consent of Markaz. . Any user after obtaining Markaz permission to use this report must clearly mention the source as “Markaz “. The report is intended to be circulated for general information only and should not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made that such information and data is accurate or complete, and therefore should not be relied upon as such. Opinions, estimates and projections in this report constitute the current judgment of the author as of the date of this report. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Markaz and are subject to change without notice. Markaz has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate, or if research on the subject company is withdrawn. This report may not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors are urged to seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and to understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security‟s price or value may rise or fall. Investors should be able and willing to accept a total or partial loss of their investment. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K (Markaz) may seek to do business, including investment banking deals, with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to website material of Markaz, Markaz has not reviewed the linked site and takes no responsibility for the content contained therein. Such address or hyperlink (including addresses or hyperlinks to Markaz‟s own website material) is provided solely for your convenience and information and the content of the linked site does not in any way form part of this document. Accessing such website or following such link through this report or Markaz‟s website shall be at your own risk.
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