gb brazilian business presentation
TRANSCRIPT
BrazilianBusinessPerspec/ve2009/2010
5/10/09 1GERALDOBARBOSAASSOCIADOS
Agenda
• WorldCrisisForm• ConsequencesforBrazil• BrazilianMacroeconomicOverview
• MainImpactsbySector
• Conclusions• RecommendaJons
5/10/09 GERALDOBARBOSAASSOCIADOS 2
WORLDCRISISFORM• AboutayearagotheRBS‐RoyalBankofScotlandpaidUS$100billionstoacquire
ABNAmro,lastDecember,thebankcouldhaveboughten:
Ci/bankUS$22,5billions
MorganStanleyUS$10,5billions
GoldmanSachsUS$21billions
MerrillLynchUS$12,3billions
DeutscheBankUS$13billions
BarclaysUS$12,7billions
• AndwouldhaveachangeofUS$8billions,tobuyGM,Ford,Chrysler,andtheHondaF1racingteam.
Source:OctáviodeBarros/Bradesco
5/10/09 3GERALDOBARBOSAASSOCIADOS
ConsequencesforBrazil
• Lowerassetvalue,reducJononcredit/investments
• LowercommoditypricesimpacJngcurrency• Lowergrowthin2009/10(recession?Howlongwilltaketorecover?)• Severeimpactonexporters,agriculture,mining&metals,aviaJon
• WhAT’Sworking?,consumergoods,automobile,energy,telecom,BANKING
• Government:posiJve:lowerinterestrate,infrastructure(PAC),moreexpending,sJmulus‐
housingandautomobile,sJmulusforcreditofficialBanks,inflaJon?
negaJve:badexpending,worstfiscalresults,lowertradebalance,inflaJon?
HOWtotransformCrisisintoOpportunity?5/10/09 GERALDOBARBOSAASSOCIADOS 4
MacroeconomicOverviewSource:Tendências/Bradesco
BRASIL 2007 2008 2009
InflaJon(IPCA) 4,46% 6,19% 4,30%
GDP 5,42% 5,05% ‐0,5%
CurrencyR$/US$ 1,78 2,38 2,00
InterestRate(Selic) 11,25% 13,75% 8,75%
TradeBalanceSurplus
40Billions 24Billions 15Billions
5/10/09 5GERALDOBARBOSAASSOCIADOS
FinancialImpact
• Currency:reversecorrelaJonbetweenCRBandcurrency2009.(240pointsofCommodityResearchBureauIndexisequivalenttoan
averageofR$2,30/US$,sourceBradesco)
• Capital:credit?,investment‐longerROI,
CashisKing.
• Financing:private‐equity,BNDES/PublicBanks,IPO’s(selecJve/2*semester),M&A,suppliers.
5/10/09 GERALDOBARBOSAASSOCIADOS 6
CompaniesImpact
• LowerGrowthin2009‐2010• CostIncrease,difficulttoraiseprices:R$/US$
• ReducJon:expense/headcount/InvesJment
• SELECTIVEgainofshare,InternetpotenJal• Opportunity:ProducJoninBrazil,“lowend”• GovernmentSegmentwithhighdemand.
5/10/09 GERALDOBARBOSAASSOCIADOS 7
Conclusion
• 2009/2010:CHALLENGEYEARS• GrowthinBrazil–LowEndProducts.• DebtMUSTbereduced.
• SelecJveGrowthInvestmentStrategy.
• Possible:revaluedR$2*semester.
• MarketGrowthforcapitalizedcompanies.
5/10/09 GERALDOBARBOSAASSOCIADOS 8
Recomenda/ons
• Pragma/sm• ExternalFocus:PartnershipsHelpyourCustomer:NewProducts/Services
• InternalFocus:Management
ProducJvity,executethe“simpleanddifficult”
• DiscussRegulatoryStandards• Resilience
5/10/09 GERALDOBARBOSAASSOCIADOS 9
THANKYOU!
GeraldoBarbosaDirectLine/Fax:+55‐115572‐0291
CellularPhone:+55‐119448‐8630
h0p://www.linkedin.com/in/geraldobarbosa
MyBlog:hpp://geraldobarbosa01.wordpress.comSkypemeat:geraldobarbosa01
5/10/09 GERALDOBARBOSAASSOCIADOS 10