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TRANSCRIPT
GAS TO POWER - BRAZIL
Rogerio MansoExecutive Manager
Marketing and Trading – Gas & Energy
June 6th, 2006
23rd WORLD GAS CONFERENCE
AMSTERDAM
Disclaimer
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events.
Such forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's
management. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect",
"forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along
with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such
forecasts. These predictions evidently involve risks and
uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company.
Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from
current expectations, and readers must not base their
expectations exclusively on the information presented herein.
The Company is not obliged to update the presentation/such
forecasts in light of new information or future developments.
Brazilian Power GridContinental Dimension
Total Installed Generation Capacity: 94 GW
� Thermal 14.4 GW 15%
� Total NG 8.4 GW 9%
� Petrobras 3.9 GW 4%
���� 85% hydroelectric power plants
Total Installed Generation Capacity: 94 GW
� Thermal 14.4 GW 15%
� Total NG 8.4 GW 9%
� Petrobras 3.9 GW 4%
���� 85% hydroelectric power plants
(2006 - Data)
4,000 kms
Average Power Consumption – 48.6 GW�Growth Rate – 5% per year
Transmission grid is well developed� 80 thousand km of transmission lines;
� 40 thousand km of lines will be constructed until 2012
Petrobras’ plants/ perceived role
• Reduce the risk of future energy deficits
• Stabilize tension levels (market position)
TRÊS LAGOAS364 MW - 1,87 MM m3/d
BARBOSA L. SOBRINHO382 MW - 2,3 MM m3/d
MACAÉ MERCHANT923 MW - 5,5 MM m3/d
NORTE FLUMINENSE929 MW - 5,0 MM m3/d
TERMO RIO1.036 MW / 330 t/h
5,0 MM m3/d
IBIRITÉ234 MW - 1,0 MM m3/d
FAFEN146 MW / 125 t/h0,55 MM m3/d
TERMOBAHIA180 MW / 360 t/h 1,37 MM m3/d
TERMO CEARÁ225 MW - 1,37 MM m3/d
VALE DO AÇU310 MW / 450 t/h2,1 MM m3/d
NOVA PIRATININGA406 MW - 2,8 MM m3/d
CCBS-RPBC 216 MW / 400 t/h
1,1 MM m3/d
CANOAS251 MW - 1,1 MM m3/d
ARAUCÁRIA469 MW - 2,1 MM m3/d
Thermo Power Plants
Co-Generation Plants
Hydroeletric73%
Others10%
Imports8%
Natural Gas9%
Projected Energy Generation Capacity
Hydroeletric73%
Others12%
Imports6%
Natural Gas9%
Coal; 2%
Diesel; 2%
Nuclear; 2%
Others (PROINFRA,
etc.); 4%
Biomass; 1%
Fuel Oil; 1%
Coal; 2%
Diesel; 2%
Nuclear; 2%
Others (PROINFRA,
etc.); 3%
Biomass; 0%
Fuel Oil; 1%
Jan/2006 – 94 GW
Jan/2015 – 135 GW
Source: EPE
Gas availabilityGas availability
Gas CostGas Cost
PPA StructurePPA Structure
Relevant Factors
Gas availability
Pólo BS - 500 (RJ)Pólo BSPólo BS -- 500 (RJ)500 (RJ)
Pólo Mexilhão (SP)Pólo Mexilhão (SP)Pólo Mexilhão (SP)
Pólo Centro (SP, RJ)Pólo Centro (SP, RJ)Pólo Centro (SP, RJ)
Pólo Sul (SP, PR, SC)Pólo Sul (SP, PR, SC)Pólo Sul (SP, PR, SC)
Pólo Merluza (SP)Pólo Pólo Merluza Merluza
(Área de 352.000 km2 de 0 a 3000m)
(SP)(SP)
Pólo BS - 500 (RJ)-Pólo BS-500 (RJ)
Pólo Mexilhão (SP)Pólo Mexilhão (SP)
Pólo Centro (SP, RJ)Pólo Centro (SP, RJ)
Pólo Sul (SP, PR, SC)Pólo Sul (SP, PR, SC)
Pólo Merluza (SP)
(352.000 km Area2 de 0 a 3000m)
Pólo Merluza (SP)Petrobras & Partners
Other Companies
Gas availability
Petrobras & Partners
Other Companies
Golfinho + CanapuGolfinho + Canapu
Parque das BaleiasParque das Baleias
CacimbasCacimbasPeroá/CangoaPeroá/Cangoa
ESS-130ESS-130
CabiúnasCabiúnas
NamoradoNamorado
120 km
ESS-164
120 km
Roncador
Merluza
2008
Barracuda
(P-43)
Caratinga
(P-48)
Albacora
Leste (P-50)
Jubarte Phase 1
(P-34)
2006
Golfinho
Mod 1
2006Golfinho
Mod 2
2007
RJS-409
Espadarte
2007
Roncador
( P-54)
2007
Marlim Sul
Mod 2
(P-51)
2008
Marlim
Leste
(P-53)
2008
Piranema
2006
Roncador
(P-52)
2007
Roncador
( P-55)
2010
Jubarte Phase 2
(P-57)
2010
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Frade
2009
Golfinho
(FPSO 3)
2010
Manati
2006 Peroa Cangoá
Phase 2
2008
Mexilhão
2008
BS-500
2010
Urucu
2007
Peroá-
Cangoa
(PPER)
Albacora
Expansion
2010
Non-associated Gas
Associated Gas
Main New Oil andGas Projects
Natural GasSupply
Million m3/day
26,5 31,443,0
54,3 61,5 69,630,0 30,0
30,0
30,030,0
30,0
11,011,0
4,04,0
00
2020
4040
6060
8080
100100
120120
20052005 20062006 20072007 20082008 20092009 20102010
Domestic ProdutionDomestic Prodution Pipeline ImportsPipeline Imports
Additional domestic production and LNGAdditional domestic production and LNG
Investments in Gas & Energy
Total Investment: US$ 16.3 billion through 2010
33 %0.60.20.4International
12 %6.70.85.9Gas & Energy
53 %0.10.10.1Downstream
52 %8.84.64.2E&P
35 %16.35.710.6Total
% Partnership
TotalPartners
2006-2010Petrobras2006-2010
US$ billion
Natural GasDemand
Monthly Sales Volumes - 1,000 m3/day
-
5.0005.000
10.00010.000
15.00015.000
20.00020.000
25.00025.000
30.00030.000
35.00035.000
40.00040.000
45.00045.000
50.00050.000
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago Set
Out
Nov
Dez
Jan
Fev
Mar
20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20052005 20062006
IndustrialIndustrial VehicularVehicular ResidentialResidential CommercialCommercial CogenerationCogeneration Power GenerationPower Generation CNGCNG
Natural Gas Growth2004-2010
Million m3/dayMillion m3/day
30,730,7
37,937,9
99,399,3
46,419,6
22,9
39,1
4,65,4
13,8
9,66,500
2020
4040
6060
8080
100100
120120
20032003 20042004 20102010
Gas to PowerGas to Power IndustrialIndustrial Auto/other usesAuto/other uses
Producer Price Index Industry Data (jan/2006)Producer Price Index Industry Data (jan/2006)
U.S. Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Site: “www.bls.gov”)
Drilling Rigs Market
Industry: Drilling oil and gas wells
Product: Drilling oil and gas wells
Industry: Crude petroleum & natural gas extr
Product: Crude Petroleum
20062006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Non-Associated Gas Growth
By 2010 63.5 % of Natural Gas Consumption will be of Non-Associated Gas
97,3
%
97,0
%
98,7
%
85,9
%
84,7
%
86,7
%
83,8
%
82,0
%
81,2
%
82,6
%
80,3
%
74,9
%
72,5
%
70,2
%
70,3
%
73,6
%
73,5
%
70,9
%
59,8
%
58,3
%
50,2
%
50,5
%
36,5
%36
,5%
6,3%
14,2
%
24,8
%
25,3
%
33,8
%
33,7
%
27,0
%
27,5
%
25,1
%
19,7
%
17,4
%
18,8
%
18,0
%
16,2
%
13,3
%
15,3
%
14,1
%
1,3%1,3%3,0%3,0%2,7%2,7%
29,8
%
29,7
%
26,4
%
20,2
%
14,8
%
15,4
%
16,5
%
15,9
%
15,8
%
19831983 19841984 19851985 19861986 19871987 19881988 19891989 19901990 19911991 19921992 19931993 19941994 19951995 19961996 19971997 19981998 19991999 20002000 20012001 20022002 20032003 20042004 20102010
ASSOCIATEDASSOCIATED NON-ASSOCIATEDNON-ASSOCIATED IMPORTEDIMPORTED
Duration of ContractsDuration of Contracts
Indexation of Gas Supply CostsIndexation of Gas Supply Costs
Points for Improvement
Flexibility x InflexibilityFlexibility x Inflexibility
Tax ReductionsTax Reductions
Compensation of Tax CreditsCompensation of Tax Credits
Site selection: South/SoutheastSite selection: South/Southeast
TEBIG
CARAGUATATUBA
GUANABARA B.
SEPETIBA
SÃO FRANCISCO DO SUL
LNG Regas Project South/Southeast
Guanabara Bay Regas TerminalGuanabara Bay Regas Terminal
LNG Regas Terminal
Option 2
16,500 m
Option 1
14,500 m
Pipeline 24”
Guanabara BayLNG Regas
Site Selection: NortheastSite Selection: Northeast
SUAPE
ARATU
PECÉM
LNG Regas Project Northeast
Pecem LNG Regas TerminalPecem LNG Regas Terminal
Pecem LNG Regas Project
• Hydro-dominated market progressively understands the heavy
investments for the gas chain to supply power plants;
• PPAs progressively adapted to gas market costs, prices and
investments;
• Gas-Energy convergence through continuous dialogue and
acceptance of hydro-thermal differences, focused on
complementarity;
• New gas-fired power generation growth in Brazil dependent on
the ability of the new PPAs to stimulate gas production on a
level that fulfills both power and non-power segments.
Final Remarks
Dank U Dank U