Gas and Geopolitics

Symposium traditionele energie

9 april 2015, Michel Dubbelboer

2

Introduction GasTerra

• Details GasTerra 2014:– Revenue € 19,5 Billion– Gas Sales81.3 BCM – Gas share in EU-28 ~15%– Employees 187 fte

9.5 34.3

18.1

4.9

8.3

5.4

0.8

Distribution world gas reserves

3737 37

23 27

9 35

7 848

4

35

106

27

22

111

4

4

10

4

77

Conventioneel gas

Schaliegas

320

99

185

CanadaNoorwegen

Verenigde Staten

Mexico

Venezuela

Argentinië

Algerije

Nigeria

Australië

Indonesië

China

Rusland

Iran

Saoedi-Arabië

Qatar

Bron: IEA, BP eenheid in Triljoen m³

3

Development gas demand per region

North-America

South-America

Europe

Africa

Middle- East

Asia

Decline

Remains the same

Growth

Strong Growth

4

Existing pipelineFID takenOn holdAbandoned

Nordstream I & II, 55 bcm 2011

Nordstream III & IV, 40 bcm (Planning)

Greenstream, 11 bcmMedgaz, 8 bcm

Trans Mediterranean pipeline, 30 bcm

Yamal pipeline, 33 bcm

Brotherhood pipeline, 100 bcm

Southstream, 15-63 bcm (2015-2017)

Bluestream, 16 bcm

TAP (2020), 10 bcm

TANAP (2018), 16 bcm

Nabucco 10-23 bcm (on hold)

Soyuz pipeline, 32 bcm

EU-28147 Bcm

(2014)

5

Turkstream, 15 -63 bcm, 2016-2018

Gas in Europa flows East to West

MENA DependencyRussia Dependency

Eastern Europe depends on Russia, Southern Europe depends on the Middle-East and Africa

6

Market Integration minimalizes the effects of import dependency

ZTP

TTF

PSV

CEGH

GPL

NCG

MS-ATR

NBP

GTF

PEG Nord

PEG Sud

PEG TIGF

Dutch production declines due to end of field life and production limitations

8

Gas revenues strongly contribution to Dutch national income.

9

The role of gas is under pressure due to geopolitics and public perception

10

But…. We Always want energy every moment anytime, but what source?

• Coal is dirty, but Cheap• Nuclear is clean, but dangerous • Wind is sustainable, But not in my backyard • Biomass is fine, But competes with food • The sun is great, But does not always shine

11

12

Clean FossilSustainable

Sources

Trias Energetica

Energy Savings

Is there still a role for gas in the future?

The road toward a 100% sustainable society is long

13

14

Questions?