gas a bridge fuel h we crossed the bridge - iene · 2018-10-12 · but coal surge post 2001...
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enalytica Data. Analytics. Solutions. in Energy
9th South East Europe Energy Dialogue (SEEED) International Conference The MET Hotel, Thessaloniki, June 29-30, 2016
Nikos Tsafos, President › [email protected]
GAS AS A “BRIDGE” FUEL: HAVE WE CROSSED THE BRIDGE?
enalytica Data. Analytics. Solutions. in Energy
THE GEOGRAPHY OF ENERGY DEMAND In OECD, oil consumption peaked in 2005, nuclear in 2006, coal in 2007. Gas and renewables still growing—but not everywhere in the OECD. In non-OECD, all fuels still growing strongly. But coal surge post 2001 (China’s WTO-accession) has slowed down, and coal use fell in 2015.
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
mmtoe OECD: ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUEL
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Other
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
mmtoe NON-OECD: ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUEL
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Other
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 (June 2016)
ENERGY › GAS › SUPPLY › DEMAND › GAS VS. RES IN EU › EU POWER MIX › SUMMARY
enalytica Data. Analytics. Solutions. in Energy
THE GEOGRAPHY OF GAS DEMAND North America, Asia Pacific and Middle East main gas demand drivers in recent years. Gas demand has declined in Europe, flat in other Europe/FSU, and plateau in Asia Pacific. Gas penetration growing in Middle East, North America and Africa. Gas penetration stable or declining in Europe and Asia Pacific.
3
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015 (June 2016)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
bcm NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION
N. America European Union Other Europe/FSU
Middle East Africa Asia Pacific
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
mmtoe NATURAL GAS % OF TOTAL ENERGY
N. America European Union Other Europe/FSU
Middle East Africa Asia Pacific
ENERGY › GAS › SUPPLY › DEMAND › GAS VS. RES IN EU › EU POWER MIX › SUMMARY
enalytica Data. Analytics. Solutions. in Energy
LNG INVESTMENTS HEADED FOR CORRECTION PRE CRISIS Since 2000, LNG industry has sanctioned 21 mmtpa of new capacity each year. Three waves: Qatar (2001—2005), Australia (2007—2012) and now US L48 (2012—present). Strong project sanctioning in 2012—2015 bound to lead to correction. Downturn will only make that correction starker. Major focus on cost-savings for new projects—significant reductions in unit CAPEX.
4
Source: enalytica based on IGU World LNG Report 2015, Company reports and press releases, industry press
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
million tons capacity LIQUEFACTION CAPACITY BY YEAR OF PROJECT SANCTION
Australia United States Qatar Russia Other
ENERGY › GAS › SUPPLY › DEMAND › GAS VS. RES IN EU › EU POWER MIX › SUMMARY
enalytica Data. Analytics. Solutions. in Energy
SHIFTING FOCUS ON GAS DEMAND CREATION In competitive markets, low gas prices have triggered a demand response, especially in power. In the United States, the price floor has been driven by demand, not supply. In the United Kingdom, low gas prices and higher carbon costs have pushed up gas.
Meanwhile, new markets continue to come into LNG. 2008 Argentina 2009 Brazil, Canada, Chile, Kuwait 2010 UAE 2011 Thailand, Netherlands 2012 Indonesia 2013 Malaysia, Singapore, Israel 2014 Lithuania 2015 Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Poland
Who’s next? Can Henry Hub based LNG help drive new imports?
5ENERGY › GAS › SUPPLY › DEMAND › GAS VS. RES IN EU › EU POWER MIX › SUMMARY
enalytica Data. Analytics. Solutions. in Energy
GROWTH IN EU RENEWABLES HURTING GAS In theory, gas and renewables are complements; in practice, they are not. In theory, gas is flexible and complement intermittency of renewables; in reality, it does not. In the United Kingdom, low gas prices and higher carbon costs have pushed up gas.
Meanwhile, new markets continue to come into LNG. 2008 Argentina 2009 Brazil, Canada, Chile, Kuwait 2010 UAE 2011 Thailand, Netherlands 2012 Indonesia 2013 Malaysia, Singapore, Israel 2014 Lithuania 2015 Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Poland
Who’s next? Can Henry Hub based LNG help drive new imports?
6ENERGY › GAS › SUPPLY › DEMAND › GAS VS. RES IN EU › EU POWER MIX › SUMMARY
enalytica Data. Analytics. Solutions. in Energy
ELECTRICITY SYSTEMS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY Pretty common for countries to change their fuel mix by 20+ percent points in 10 years.
2008 Argentina 2009 Brazil, Canada, Chile, Kuwait 2010 UAE 2011 Thailand, Netherlands 2012 Indonesia 2013 Malaysia, Singapore, Israel 2014 Lithuania 2015 Egypt, Jordan, Pakistan, Poland
Who’s next? Can Henry Hub based LNG help drive new imports?
7ENERGY › GAS › SUPPLY › DEMAND › GAS VS. RES IN EU › EU POWER MIX › SUMMARY
enalytica Data. Analytics. Solutions. in Energy
IMPACT ON SE EUROPE & EAST MED Energy consumption patterns are changing—sometimes markedly and rapidly. Investment capital and focus switching from supply towards demand. Major focus on cash management and cost reductions. Gas continuing to struggle in Europe, especially against renewables. Investments targeting European market will be hard to justify. Market concerns merely add to myriad other problems facing Caspian/East Med.
8ENERGY › GAS › SUPPLY › DEMAND › GAS VS. RES IN EU › EU POWER MIX › SUMMARY
