Ganges Basin Development Challenge & role of change and coordination project

Why the Ganges Basin?

• Bangladesh and India rank first and second in terms of climate change risk. Poverty, Agricultural Dependence are the basis of South Asian Risk.

• The areas of Bangladesh and India most at risk are the coastal- saline zones of Ganges Basin.

Lessons learned in our coastal saline areas have application in

coastal communities around the world.

Ganges- Basin Development Challenge

Myanmar

Geographical setting

Ganges Basin:

Ganges Basin Area = 1,087,300 sq. km

Coastal Area of Bangladesh

• Population >40 million, 28% of total population

• Total area 47,201 km2, ~1000 people/km2

Major Challenges in Ganges Coastal Areas

Water logging

Fresh water limitations

Increasing soil/surface water salinity

Salinity intrusion

Cyclone

Sea level rise

Severe cyclonic storms

Siltation

Salinity intrusion

Flood

Salinity Intrusion

Goal is to reduce poverty, improve food security and strengthen livelihood resilience in coastal areas through improved water governance and management, and more productive and diversified farm system.

Objective to improve resource productivity and increase resilience of agriculture and aquaculture systems in brackish water coastal areas of the Ganges

What the Ganges BDC hopes to achieve?

Study Area:

Ganges Dependant Area in Bangladesh

Coastal Divisions: Barisal: Patuakhali, Barguna, Jhalakati & Pirojpur districtsKhulna: Khulna & Satkhira districts

Project Target Area:Coastal Zone of the Ganges basin in Bangladesh except the Sundarbans

Coastal Polders in Bangladesh

In the early sixties and seventies, 125 polders (of which 49 are sea-facing) were constructed to protect low lying coastal areas from tidal flood & salinity intrusion.

Five research projects (G1-5) that will:

• Provide science-based solutions to agriculture and water issues of the region

• Seek to support Governments of Bangladesh and India and other investments in a range of agriculture programs

• Support government policy makers and civil society with the information and skills they need in the areas of water governance and potential impacts of climate change

How the Ganges BDC hopes to achieve?

Ganges BDC : 5 Science Programs Land Use, Water and Water Governance and Agriculture

systems:• G1. Resource profiles, extrapolation domains (EDA) and land-

use plans • G2. Farming Systems : Resilient intensified and diversified

agriculture and aquaculture systems • G3. Water governance and community-based management • G4. Modeling Change Assessment of the impact of anticipated

external drivers of change on water resources of the coastal zone • G5. Coordination and change-enabling project

G3: Water Governance and Community-Based Management

• Assess existing water governance and land use systems.• Determine which governance systems offer the best outcomes for

communities and reduce conflict across different users.• How these governance systems best meet the needs of polder

communities and the water requirements of different production systems.

Research to understand best approaches to water management in polders

Selection of sub-projects(polders)

Data Collection and AnalysisFormation of Water

Management Organisations (WMO)

Plan Formulation and Finalisation

Rehabilitation Work

Long-term Operation and Maintenance

Monitoring and Plan review Monitoring and

Plan review

• Assess changes in external hydrology (and other external drivers of change) in the coastal zone of the Ganges at the regional and with selected polders.

• Model conditions and effects for salinity intrusion, water availability, drainage congestions and risk of inundation due to storm surges.

• Simulate baseline and changed conditions in 2020, 2030 and 2050. At regional level for and at local levels for the selected polders

G4: Modeling External Drivers of Change for Water Resources of the Coastal Zone

Hydrologic Trend Analysis in the Study Area:

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

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• Increasing trend of annual maximum flow

• Decreasing trend of annual minimum flow

Data Collection and Hydrological Analysis; Trend analysis of Ganges River Discharge

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Noapara Ghat Fultola Ghat Charerhat Ghat Rupsha Ghat Mollarhat

Salin

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PT)

Salinity Trends

Monthly Salinity Monitoring (Data Source: Department of Environment, DOE)

DRIVERS OF CHANGE – IDENTIFIED THROUGH PARTICIPATORY PROCESS

Demographic/SocietalPopulation growth, Land use change

Economic/TradeEconomic develpopment in coastal zone (change in per capita income)

Political/Institutional/LegalWater policy (national and regional)

Environmental/Climate ChangeSea level rise due to Climate ChangeChanges in precipitation and temperature due to Climate Change

Technological/Important InnovationsChanges in aquaculture and agriculture intensification

G5. Coordination and Change-Enabling Project

• Coordination and quality of research: Coordinate and support G 1-4 to assure quality and relevant science

• Fostering change: Participatory impact pathway analysis, M&E to pick up on emergent opportunities, outcome/logic models.

• Communications: Support achievement of change in target actors and scale up of research results.

• Adaptive management: M&E providing information and insight to support good adaptive management decisions

• Innovation research:  Research to find innovative ways to turn research into developmental outcomes

1 Establish Adaptive management system2. Gender strategy3. Communication strategy4. Policy products and processes 5. Development actors engaged6. Innovation research findings

Expected Outputs of coordination project

Means of Achievement• Focus on three streams of innovation, integrate them, and

scale up these strategies to a wider range of polder categories and land types

– First stream: Water management, water governance and the future of water for agriculture. (G3 and G4)

– Second stream: development of institutions for community-based resource management. (G3, G5)

– Third stream: farming systems crop management practices for salt-affected lands. (G1, G2).

Links across the Projects

• Identification of agro-ecological zones for targeting improved technologies and water governance arrangements

• Inspiring NARES, NGOs and other out scaling projects to adopt and promote the improved technologies

• Influencing policy makers and government at community to national levels to invest in the necessary infrastructure improvements and policy changes

Approach to Change Enabling

• Government Agencies… BARC, BRRI, DAE, DoF etc • NGOs – BRAC, CARE and other large NGOs • Private Sector Linkages… seed companies, hatcheries etc• Ongoing Projects and Studies

– Bangladesh CIP– Cereal Systems Initiative For South Asia (CSISA)– Global Agriculture Food Security (GAFSP)– Master Plan for the Southern Delta

Partnerships are key - Scale up/out stakeholders