gambling your future: effective portfolio management todd little and kent mcdonald so many...

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Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

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Page 1: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Gambling Your Future:

Effective Portfolio Management

Todd Little and Kent McDonald

So many decisions, more time than we

thought

Page 2: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

By the Book Gaming Pools for Fools Tools for Pools By my Fantasy You Betcha

Page 3: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

The Problem(s)

Page 4: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

The Development Funnel

Evaluation andEvaluation andSelectionSelection

DevelopmentDevelopmentProjectsProjects

New ProductsNew Products/Services/Services

Page 5: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Real Funnels: Group B

Research

Customer

MarketingEngineering

StrategicPlanning

OEM

QualityControl

Cont.

Page 6: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Real Funnels: Group C

Central Research

Local Inputs

Board Heat

Product "A"

Competitor Boot

NIH Resistor(abrasion;

slows down the flow)

Tech Prod'n Log Sales

LAUNCH HERE

RELAUNCH HERE

1 1/2 – 2 years 2 – 3 hours

8 –12 months

leaky

Page 7: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

What can we do to get useful Portfolio Management?

Page 8: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Value Models?

Value Model

Business Value

CostsCosts

Benefits

How Do You Determine Costs?

How Do You Determine Benefits?

Page 9: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

A Value Model?

Page 10: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Line Change

Page 11: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Value Model!

Value Model

Considerations

Purpose

Considerations

Cos

tsC

osts

Be

nefit

s

What do we do?

When do we do it?

When do we

decide?

Page 12: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions

What do we do?

When do we do it?

When do we decide?

Page 13: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Real Options

Page 14: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Deciding Is Not a Once in a Lifetime Event

Knowledge Improves Business Conditions

Change Project Conditions

Change Do You Know Why

You Are Deciding Early?

Page 15: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Considerations

RisksRisks AssumptionsAssumptions ConstraintsConstraints

Page 16: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Risks – Types of Uncertainty

Cost Uncertainty

General Market Uncertainty

Feature Acceptance Uncertainty

Page 17: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Purpose-Based Alignment

MarketDifferentiating

High

Low

Mission CriticalLow High

Differentiating

ParityWho Cares?

Partner

Purpose Does Not Equal PriorityPurpose Does Not Equal Priority

Page 18: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Example: Health InsurancePurpose Alignment

MarketDifferentiating

High

Low

Mission CriticalLow High

PharmacyDental

DisabilityInsurance

Healthcare analytics

Member Medical Home

Claims ProcessingEnrollment

Customer Service

Page 19: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Simulation Get into teams Choose a representative Prepare your case

Page 20: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Iteration 1

Page 21: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Iteration 2

Page 22: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Debrief/Retrospective

Page 23: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Buy the Book:Stand Back and Deliver

New book by Pixton, Nickolaisen, Little, and McDonald

Published by Addison Wesley in Early 2009

Drafts:

www.accelinnova.com /booklogin.php

Page 24: Gambling Your Future: Effective Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

Contact

Todd Little www.toddlittleweb.com 713-504-5365 [email protected]

Kent J McDonald: www.knowledgebridgepartners.com www.accelinnova.com 515.229.6929 [email protected]