gambling on war - · gambling on war: gettysburg, robert e. lee, and the schlieffen plan roger l...
TRANSCRIPT
7/22/2011
1
Gambling on War:
Gettysburg, Robert E. Lee,
and
The Schlieffen Plan
Roger L Ransom
Professor of History and Economics, Emeritus,
University of California, Riverside
Spring 2005:
The Confederate States
of America:
What Might Have Been
Current Project:
Gambling on War:
From Bismarck to Bush
7/22/2011
2
The Lost Cause:Could the South Have Won?
Of Course they COULD win …But the Odds were certainly against them!
It would take more than winning one more battle toturn the tide in their favor
The South had taken a huge gamble starting this war ‐‐But then ANY War is a risky business
Carl Clausewitz:No other human activity is so continuously or universallybound up with chance.
...War most closely resembles a game of cards”
The Southern Gamble
Every general knows that battles involve taking Gambles
ROBERT E. LEE
… And the South had one of the best “Gamblers”in the History of Warfare:
7/22/2011
3
For Lee – Every Battle was a Gamble… And he needed to win every one of them!
The Peninsula May‐June 1862
Antietam September 17 1862
Chancellorsville April 25 – 30 1863
Fredericksburg December 13 1862
These battles repulsed Union attacks, but as Lee noted:
“our loss was severe, and again we had gained not an inch
of ground and the enemy could not be pursued”
The Southern Gamble
Second Manassas August 1862
GrantThreatensVicksburg
RosecransThreatensChattanooga
By the Summer of 1863 Lee knew he had to raise the stakes
The Southern Gamble
7/22/2011
4
Lee’s Gamble to Win the WarLee proposes to invade the North
… and fight a decisive battle to end the war
Not Everyone agrees with this strategy
P.T. Beauregard asked:
Of what earthly use is this 'raid' of Lee's army into Maryland,
in violation of all the principles of war? Is it going to end the struggle, take Washington, or save the Mississippi Valley?
Maybe not … But it MIGHT!
Lee is willing to gamble on one last chance to win the war:
A CONFEDERATE CANNAE
A Confederate Cannae?In 216 BC the Carthaginian Army under Hannibal Destroyed
a much larger Roman Army at Cannae
Cannae is still regarded as an example of the “Perfect Victory”
Hannibal lures the Romansinto attacking the centerof the Carthaginian Army
The Carthaginians fall back… and then attack theRomans with their bestSoldiers
The Roman Army is Destroyed
7/22/2011
5
July 1: Confederates DriveUnion Forces from Gettysburg
July 2: Longstreet attacks theUnion Left Late in the Afternoon
July 3: Pickett’s Charge fails
Ewell Presses the Union Right
GETTYSBURG
But they fail to drive the UnionForces from Culps HIll
Lee
Meade
Union Line Forms a “Fishhook”
July 3: Pickett’s Charge was onlypart of Lee’s Plan
Ewell was supposed to attackthe Union Right
GETTYSBURG
Lee
Meade
Stuart was supposed to attackthe Union Rear
Ewell’s attack failed andStuart never got to the Union Rear
Lee’s Cannae turned into a DISASTER
7/22/2011
6
GETTYSBURG
LEE was not the first general to gamble everything in thehope of winning a victory like “Cannae”
What many Students of Gettysburg point out is not that
LEE LOST – but that HE ALMOST WON !!
…And if he had WON --HE MIGHT HAVE WON THE WAR!
… And he was certainly not the last
The possibility of a Victory like CANNAE thatcould win a war appealed to those who studied Lee’s Gettysburg Campaign
FAST FORWARD TO THE SUMMER OF 1914 …
Lee’s Gamble to Win the War
7/22/2011
7
Gambling on War
The German High Command weigh their Options:
On June 28,1914 Archduke Francis Ferdinand of Austriais assassinated in Sarajevo
Within Weeks The Austrians and the Russiansare mobilizing for war
Germany can Play it safe:take a conciliatory role and try to restrain both the Austrians and the Russians
ORGermany can Gamble:
Join the Austrians in a war with Russia
The Kaiser decides to Gamble on WAR
Gambling on War
In 1914 the Germans have been working on a plan for WAR involving both Russia and France for years
Great Britain
France
BelgiumGermany
Russia
AustrianEmpire
They worry about a two‐front War
Strike first by Attacking FranceThrough Holland & Belgium
Then deal with Russia
In 1863 Lee did not really have a PLAN for carrying out an Invasion of the North
Alfred von Schlieffen comes upwith the Solution:
7/22/2011
8
Schlieffen’s Gamble
Schlieffen’s Plan was gambling that:
1. the Germans could annihilate the French Armiesin a series of quick battles in the WEST
TWO CANNAES !!
2. the Germans could annihilate the Russian Armiesin a series of quick battles in the EAST
Schlieffen’s Plan
2/3 of the German Army will be on the Right Wing
Right Wing Swings West of
PARIS
French Army will be trapped EAST
of PARIS
7/22/2011
9
The German Attack in 1914
Molke changes the Invasion Route
Von Kluck’s 1st Army is slowed by the B.E.F.
Von Kluck shifts his route EAST of Paris
The Battle of the Marne
French 5th and 9th Armies attack Kluck and Bulow
BEF and French 6th
Army Attack Von Kluck
7/22/2011
10
Schlieffen’s Gamble Fails
The Germans will never get as close to victory again
September 1914 Germans at the outskirts of Paris
February 1915 Trenches From theEnglish Channel toSwitzerland
Germans occupyBelgium and Northern France
Schliefen’s Plan wasnot a total Failure
One Last Gamble
March 1918 Germansmake a last gamble to win the war …
Fall 1918 the Germansask for an Armistice
Russians leave the war
Spring 1917: Germans prospects resemble the CSA in 1863
The United States entersthe war
But Like Lee at Gettysburg it fails!
7/22/2011
11
Gambling on War
Schlieffen and Lee both sought a Cannae – a decisive victory that could end a war
Both the Germans and the CSA were overly optimistic about their military capabilities
False Optimism is a common trait of those who Gamble
Those who Gamble on War tend to suffer from an acutecase of this shortcoming
Usually with Disastrous Results
Gambling on War
In Gambling on War I examine three other military gambles that resulted in major wars:
Operation Barbarossa: The German invasion of the SovietUnion in June 1942
Pearl Harbor: The Japanese Attack against the United Statesin December 1942
Korea: The North Korean attack against South Koreain June 1950
The Twentieth Century has seen numerous instances of“first strike” gambles to win a war
7/22/2011
12
Gambling on War
The key to their plan was a “first strike” that would annihilate the enemy’s military capabilities
All of these episodes involved an element of desperation which made a gamble on war seem worthwhile
When they failed to achieve their initial objective …they kept on gambling
They almost succeeded!
Gambling on War
There have been no “Gambles” on the scale of theWorld Wars since 1950
There have been quite a few “Little Gambles”
There is always the possibility that one of these“Little Gambles” could get much larger…