g1: resource profiles, extrapolation domains and land use patterns andy nelson - irri bwdb irri iwm...
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G1: Resource profiles, extrapolation domains and land use patterns
Andy Nelson - IRRI
BWDB IRRI IWM LGED SRDI
BWDB Bangladesh Water Development BoardIRRI International Rice Research InstituteIWM Institute of Water ModellingLGED Local Government Engineering DepartmentSRDI Soil Resource Development Institute
WP1 Geodatabase of the coastal zone
WP2 Characterisation of test sites
WP3 Extrapolation domains of technologies and policies
WP4 Land use plans under future hydrological scenarios
outputs & methodsG1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI
G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI
WP1 Geo-database of the coastal zone• identification and acquisition of data• metadata and data format agreements• geo-database development and documentation
WP2 Characterisation of test sites• geo-referencing of test sites• identification of key site characteristics• identification of links between geodatabase and sites
outputs & methods
WP3 Extrapolation domains of technologies and policies•Essentially, this is an analysis of land use suitability•From WP2 we know what is needed for a technology to succeed•From WP1 we know the factors and constraints across the region•Ecological niche models such as MaxEnt allow us to extrapolate ‘this works here, where else may it work?’ and conversely where is may not work. •The results are probability maps or domains for each technology
•Round table discussion with partners on preliminary results•Final domain maps generated•Evaluation and synthesis of domain maps
G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI outputs & methods
probability100
50
25
5
1
0
G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI
WP4 Land use plans under future hydrological scenarios• Preparation of current land-use plans • Identification of future scenarios and drivers of change • Multi criteria land-use modeling to determine the likely or possible land use based on competing demands and limiting factors
• Roundtable discussion with partners on preliminary results• Final land-use models • Evaluation and synthesis of land-use maps
outputs & methods
G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI
Other crops / other land use
16. Forest/Savanna
15. Water bodies / aquaculture
14. Irrigated-GW/SW-DC-rice-rice-rice
13. Irrigated-GW/SW-DC-other crops-rice-rice
12. Irrigated-GW/SW-DC-rice-rice-other crops
11. Irrigated-GW/SW-DC-fallow-rice-other crops
10. Irrigated-GW-TC-rice-rice/other crops-rice
09. Irrigated-GW/SW-TC-rice-rice/other crops-rice
08. Irrigated-GW-DC-rice -fallow-rice
07. Submergence-DC-rice-water-rice
06. Irrigated-GW/SW-TC-mixed crops-other crops-rice
05. Irrigated-SW-DC-vegetables/rice-fallow-rice
04. Rainfed-SC-fallow-fallow-rice
03. Irrigated-GW-TC-rice-mixed crops/rice-other crops
02. Irrigated-GW/SW-DC-rice-water-other crops
01.Submergence-DC-rice-water-other crops
2010 Rice growing areas (by water & by season)
SW/GW : Surface water/Groundwater
SC/DC/TC : Single/Double/Triple crop
outputs
Map developed by IRRI (2011)
G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI
Boro rice (2009-10)Area: 5,011,634 ha
Aus rice (2010-11)Area: 1,103,738 ha
Aman rice (2010-11)Area: 5,816,240 ha
outputs
timelineG1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI
G1 activities2011 2012 2013 2014
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Geodatabase development
Site characterisation
Extrapolation domains
Future land use scenarios
linkages
G1WP1 – Geodatabase
development
WP2 – Site characterisation
WP3 – Mapping extrapolation
domains
WP4 – Future land use planning
G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI
Agriculture & aquaculture systems
Water governance & management
Impact on water
resources
Coordination, change enabling
G2
G3
G4
G5
Data curators
Coastal zone projects
Basin stakeholders
CPWF
Thank you
G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI